>> i would know it without even thinking. isn't it augusta? i stumped you on a capital. stuart: i have more important -- look at two stocks which are moving down and sharply so. says the down $17. lauren: it is pushed to october. stuart: show me meta, 1987, 3.7%. that's a significant decline. thanks for staying with us. thanks for the test on maine. coast-to-coast starts now. neil: we have this good

employment report. why it is not getting the response you would think. tesla, this sense, what you think would be welcome in the bond market is not being welcomed across all markets. some are interpreting this as an inflationary signal. it is in the eye of the beholder. at least people were starting out to say up to the races on a rate cut. >> reporter: the federal reserve chairman is smiling. this is the report the federal reserve would like to see. core inflation coming down slowly. if it opens the possibility to

a september rate cut before the elections, the next report is a good one also. >> got to put it in the context of seven good inflation reports and four bad reports, it is running over 3% by the preferred measure, not the cbo. that has to weigh on them. >> reporter: this is a decrease to cut rates. bad news for president biden. since the month, prices are up 19%, shelter costs up 22%, president biden's baby energy is up 33%, auto insurance up 53%. these are the policies people see as bidenomics.

>> no one is expensing 3.1% inflation. we see that in consumer spending. 50% of their spending is on housing and healthcare. >> reporter: president biden saying his policies are helping make progress on inflation. then he's back to blaming companies for inflation. neil: i've been looking forward to having edward lawrence, new york times best-selling author, what went wrong, the national chairman, breakout capital cio, thanks for joining us. let me first get your take on how you see the inflation report? pressure is subsiding enough with the federal reserve to go ahead and cut. looks like a gift to the

markets, it is not. what am i missing? >> a big narrative shift, the last two quarters, economic growth in the us is beginning to downshift. the point i made in my book is the us has been an overstimulated superpower. monetary stimulus of us economic growth remains high and causes inflation. despite what we see is the stimulus beginning to wear off. 1% in the last quarter but at the end of this year, they come to a virtual standstill. the big narrative shift waning from now until deeper inflation

of economic growth, if the fed cuts interest rates the economic slowdown is a bigger one in the months and quarters ahead. adam: growth stop by the end of the year? >> momentum is slowing down. it is hard for a recession or something, the evidence i am seeing, the consumer backed out. looking at excess savings that was accumulated during the pandemic and because of the stimulus, that has run out. the savings rate is at a low level. the important narrative, big tech companies have been spending indiscriminately on ai and not missing out of that.

as the economy slows down, companies will be more cautious what they spend on ai rather than what has been going on in the last few quarters, we need to spend crazily but once the economy slows down, it will be more discerning what they are spending as well. neil: that could interrupt a lot of momentum. in the bond market, playing out what you are saying, little more than 4.17% so they seem to be anticipating the very slow down you are outlining today but we've seen days like this where we have a downgrade in stocks. it doesn't last long and the buyers return, what do you think? >> correct.

and sentiment surveys as the market sentiment, the market sentiment is bullish. that is one point i will make. so far as the economy is strong, doesn't matter. they will keep beating the earnings but the economy starts to slow down, in the last few months, what we've seen is the market gains are higher than any increase we've seen and is very concentrated and full of stocks. the momentum could return as we could talk about that six months from now but the big story is the economy is slowing down, the other point about interest rates, for the fed to cut interest rates, that is

going to be because of the fact the emphasis, the deficit today is 6% of gdp. the deficit will blow out 9% to 10% of gdp. for interest rates to come down, the scope is more limited. neil: the cost of carrying the debt would come down. >> marginality. the economy is slowing down, the fed cuts interest rates but the downturn, the funding pressure is so high, the long end of the curve doesn't come down that much. funding pressure is so big when running a budget deficit of 9% to 10% gdp, % gdp, debt to gdp is 100%.

neil: whether it is donald trump or president biden in the white house? >> what i argue in my book tour is the fact that biden has taken this economic experiment with bigger and bigger government to a different level. what he has done, putting steroids on those fronts, bipartisan project as to what has gone wrong with capitalism. after 100 years minimal government went to maximum government and capitalism did not fail. it was ruined by big government. neil: i want to talk about the relationship between the federal reserve and the white house. we learned something yesterday about that relationship.

i want to explore that with you and the role it will play if we get a rate cut before the election that will feed this narrative doing a politician's bidding. i want to attack your fine-grained for that. i want to talk to peter doocy about the relationship president biden has with the federal reserve and keep in our prayers, a big boy press conference today because he is taking on a lot of questions by himself. that is not the case. an update. >> reporter: the update is this nato summit location at the convention center from the white house and capitol hill. we are hearing now that we are on site that visiting foreign

dignitaries are being polite to white house officials when they are here but going up to capitol hill they are expressing some anxieties about the president's acuity. >> those nato leaders are on the hill. prime ministers, heads of state telling us they are deeply concerned. >> reporter: nancy pelosi is putting out the word, president biden is done with any big moves away from him. according to a report that states barack obama had advance knowledge of the clooney op-ed dumping the president yesterday and did not intervene to save biden the embarrassment but the democratic national committee is saying that none of this matters in president biden has the delegates to be the nominee so the president is digging in with their help.

>> he has earned this nomination. wake up, america, wake up, democrats, time to stiffen your spines and knock your knees and b for your president. >> we are already delayed. before the president left to the white house to come over here for a 5 minute drive they told us the 5:30 press conference would be more like 6:30 p.m. . neil: it is him alone, he's fielding the questions. we don't how long he wants to go? how many reporters he will talk to including you? >> it is going to be more than a 2 and 2 press conference, the us president takes two questions and the visiting leader takes two questions. more than four. whether this is a situation

like two years ago in january where he stood for two hours until the first lady was grabbing the press seem saying that somebody go pool him, we don't know. it is going to be more than four questions, they say. that makes it a big boy. neil: i am trying to play that out. peter doocy at 6:thirty p.m. eastern time. that is something that has taken on added importance. what he says and the answers and looks at getting extra scrutiny, democratic candidate strategist. we get these polls out today that show that debate, donald trump and president biden are dead even in the polls, that

could change. the democrat party and all the celebrities with them with their hair on fire. >> we love to let our hair on fire with every roadblock we encounter but the interesting thing is the race remains pretty static. a new washington post poll shows a 4646 race, the race is tied among likely voters. we haven't seen the real fallout from the debate two weeks ago. all lies will beyond the press conference tonight. speaker pelosi and her remarks earlier this week said please hold your fire until after the nato summit we are hosting in washington dc, it will be twofold. the importance of the press conference cannot be understated following tomorrow to see how many democrats come forward with remarks either in support of the president or against the president being on the ticket.

neil: we have all these democrats in the house, senator welch in vermont, the first official senator to say time to end it. chuck schumer is open to dumping the president though he doesn't say that. open to hearing from a lot of folks and we have a lot of others including senator mike bennett who hasn't weighed in one way or the other other than predicting he could lose in a landslide. what do you make of that and who has come out and who is changing their tune and tone? nancy pelosi, hakeem jeffries, also saying i will leave it up to the president, the president already said i'm not going anywhere. where is this going? >> the president said he's not going anywhere, he has the votes in the primary, he won every single state. this is his nomination for mid august when we kick off in chicago.

all indication is hakeem jeffries, our leader in the congress is speaking in our deeply blue districts. neil: not your fault, mind, it is odd, in the case of clooney and other entertainers, they focused on the one debate the changed everything. the white house esteemed at this, one debate negates all the 3.5 years of everything. if they come back and say the one debate showed us something only you guys at the white house seem to know, that this guy is out of it, what do you make of it? >> the pushback from the white house, one bad night, the president has spoken to that on the stump. concerns have persisted for a long time. the timing of george clooney's up it is interesting. he had those feelings after the fundraiser, the fundraiser was a a month and 1/2 or so in la.

it certainly is interesting. our eyes on this press conference, president sits down with lester holt in texas. that will be counter programming to the convention that kicks off with republicans in milwaukee but the importance is critical today. neil: do you get angry when they call it a big boy press conference as if the president is a child and if he can just get through it, it is fine? can't be sitting well with other democrats? >> i think karine jean-pierre used that language from the podium -- neil: a bloomberg reporter raised that analogy. >> to peter's point, won't be a twofer to, it will be closer to what we saw in the to our press

conference and gives the president the breath to examine a lot of issues, not just electability. neil: i always think of that character, the big boy. i thought it was a weight effort. all right. in the meantime a this is a remarkable development. the dow doing fine today, not just the nasdaq taking it on the chin. a big run up in gold, that of course on the belief that even with these inflationary pressures supposedly easing, maybe there's this sense you cut interest rates too soon, heard from -- that's not likely but just explain that after this.

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adam: a lot of democrats will watch the president closely, taking on a lot of questions by himself and see how he does.

democrats are nervous about that. democrats getting at of their skis on all of this. i'm happy to have congressman hammock with us. i talked to your republican colleagues. they think president biden should stay in the race, a poll comes out today showing the two are dead even right now. one of many, especially this early. republicans, this might be as good as it gets. a number of months to the election, what do you tell them? >> it is refreshing to have reported chasing my democrat colleagues around rather than republicans, first time in a long time that has happened. it's interesting talking to my democrat colleagues about what's happening or isn't happening. what isn't happening is called from the white house to democrat members in the house of representatives.

every democrat i have spoken to his said we are in a mess. this is a lose/lose situation, he's going to finish out the term but cannot be our nominee. at the end of the day it has to be harassed. the question becomes who is going to be the vice president will nominee on the democratic ticket? that's going to be a bigger impact than the shuffling of who is going to be the nominee leading the ticket? democrats are panicking. on capitol hill it is absolute chaos and confusion. i am encouraged by what is happening but doesn't mean we can sit back on our laurels. we have an opportunity to pick up the base as well. adam: maybe that effort as a foot. ron desantis was a critic of the challenger, a lot of bad words to say to each other, they bury the hatchet and now we understand the governor is going to speak at the convention. >> it's a wonderful idea.

ron desantis deserves us leaking -- speaking spot at the are in see condition. he has advanced freedom and liberty in the sunshine state. his track record as governor is phenomenal. it's a natural progression that he's going to be standing on stage talking about we are going to make america florida but talking about the dynamics, what donald trump and governor desantis recognize what is at stake, they are moving forward putting america first and that is why you see ron desantis on stage and none of the petty politics. neil: but that doesn't extend yet to nikki haley. she's not been invited to the republican convention. we are told from donald trump himself that he didn't have anything to do with that. allowing for that would seem petty for critic of the president not to be there if they are major party figures or others who don't come. what do you make of that?

>> next week is going to be incredible. based on the information i received a, the schedules i have been given. there's every political movement directed at the milwaukee convention. one thing we have going for us that democrats don't is unity. we are united behind donald trump for president and when you have nikki haley releasing her delegates being gracious and saying please get behind our nominee, that is one more reason when americans go to the ballot box in november they say you have a choice between chaos and disarray with a democrat or a united front willing to put america first beyond petty politics behind the scenes. milwaukee you will see a lot of people, speculation they may not be there, they will be there. neil: great catching up with you.

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adam: $1 billion is what they got. they just have $1 billion in it. i don't know if he's in austin powers fan.

new york times best-selling author. it is interesting because part of this campaign to fund the irs, to get a bunch of money more, they say haven't been paying their fair share and a milestone, more like the millstone. what do you think? >> the problem is not the tax revenue site but spending site. if you look at the history of spending, it has gone from 3% of gdp to nearly 40% of gdp. tax revenues remain stable, 20% of gdp, the funding is the problem here. if you add state and, spending is out of control, and spend it somewhere else. that is what we need to be

mindful of. neil: half of eligible americans on the wealthy and the push to have them pay more. that's not sustainable, is it? >> 6% of peace time and full employment and slowdown comes in, could be looking at a deficit higher than my recession scenario, when the top 1%, which is up significantly. the focus needs to turn on spending rather than taxes.

adam: speaking of him. your thoughts on this which amazed a lot of people. the congressman, mike lawler, of new york question the federal reserve chairman how often he talks to president biden. how do you respond to this? >> i was blown away about it. costs have skyrocketed, energy costs, as i said to chairman powell, the average mortgage cost goes up $1000 a month, under president biden and the fact that he has not sought to meet with the fed chairman since may 31, 2022, is astounding to me.

neil: the fed is an independent agency. where you don't talk, i don't know where the middle ground is, but what do you make of it? >> what i more concerned about is the fed needs to change its framework, the fact that it's focused on consumer price inflation. and flying the fact the property prices. the mortgage rates going up. the fact the cost of owning a home has become so much more expensive it's hurting the average american a lot. those issues which need to come back to the table and new framework for the fed. acid price inflation and consumer price inflation, you

need fresh thinking at the fed rather than the debate over should the fed be attacking rates or raising rates? standard stuff. neil: the president and the fed chief, one or the other, great to have you, want to have you back soon. charlie gasparino, following the big money guys who were giving money, now we learn, and they are testing kamala harris versus trump in polling. >> hard to believe they just started now. the clooney thing where he said he should drop out. i am getting my sources on wall

street, see year at major firms during investment banking and a couple ceos, that's a big inflection point signaling that hollywood is likely to go ahead and not support biden and hold money. you get the impression, again, the impression, they are going on the same information we are going on. president biden, his wife, maybe hunter biden and a few other close associates, don't know if kamala harris is in the group, who know what is going on. that group as of now is holding tight. but the walls are crashing in around them. one government affairs official told me five minutes ago he thinks this weekend will be in

inflection point, based on what they are hearing from fundraisers that this is untenable. it will be interesting to see the type of polling that kamala harris does get. up until now, biden's polling is behind trump. wearily really, not abysmally behind, not getting crushed but attend point lead here, she doesn't do that much better in those circumstances. who knows what their calculus is. maybe having her at the top of the ticket is worse than having him. she hasn't been a standout over the last four years. a lot of word salad can be replayed in the commercials so right there, that is interesting. still below 50%. the ads haven't started yet. are you see is biden every day.

this thing has to play out but you get the impression from the fundraisers this weekend is critical. of president biden has oppressor today. neil: a big boy report. so you fill that in. charles: i'm surprised you to contact about the doctor evil stuff. i just wish they knew ahead of time. if you told me about doctor evil i would have done that story. i had a normal childhood. neil: look at the time. lawyers are calling. thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana

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we have katie burn with more on what is going on. >> reporter: we are in the heat wave. of the 2.5 million customers the last power at the peak of beryl moving through the city, more than a million have gotten their power back but that means more than a million are without it and it is very hot out here. the fourth day in a row of this, what feels like temperatures continuing to hit triple digits and it is very quiet in these neighborhoods. people aren't coming outside once we get into those afternoon hours. it's too hot to do this cleanup work which there is still a lot of. people can't take the heat anymore. finding water, gas and food is a challenge which most people are throwing out what they have in their fridge at this point. we stopped at a busy drive-through distribution site and cooling center where people are getting help and getting cool. some are charging their phones, checking in with family for the first time in days.

others are using oxygen masks after dealing with the heat and many are worried about young kids and elderly neighbors in these temperatures. >> i want to see them let in people in these houses that are in their 70s and 80s. they are in a serious stress situation right now. including the east side, no lights, water or storage. >> reporter: they expect the stretch into early next week with no firm estimate for restoration right now. adam: the cofounder of path trading partners, i want to harken back, we got a stable inflation a report, what happens with the nation's

weather is driving up utility bills, gas prices opec saying it see strong demand through the summer driving season. little evidence of a direct hit. >> the cpi reflected lower energy prices. crude oil is over and done with. we turned back up, headed back to $82 a barrel in the us so that is going to reflect in the next batch of nevers, not these. core cpi was lower, excluding energy. energy prices reflect the economy. take away what the iea said, they expect lower demand through 2025. opec expecting stronger demand,

the truth is usually in the middle. what we see on the ground is stronger demand at this point. neil: i know noise, largely to the markets, the democratic leader of the house is saying all the politically correct things to say. we stand behind joe biden, this is a moving sort of drama. paraphrasing. is this having any impact on the markets if the president stands down? >> i think it could. it isn't right now because market participants are looking at it like a landslide for donald trump as long as president biden says he's going to stay in the race, no way unless he steps down or somebody pool the 25th amendment on him. the markets are calm because they know they are going to have an inflationary president either away. i don't mean that as our negative, i mean that related to markets. we saw inflation take down a little bit.

that is another conversation but they are able to replace joe biden if he steps down and replace him with somebody else regardless who it is. the market has to reassess policies, you assume they would be a little different since even before that particular debate he wasn't polling that well. neil: about 331 points, it is a huge run up. what do you make of it? >> if you look at history when we had the s&p and the nasdaq in the first two quarters, you usually get a positive rest of the year, 4.5%, 73% chance of that happening so you expect the market to go up. it is better odds than that during the election season. i don't expect a dramatic pool

back. a 20% chance of the opposite, with the correction, after the fedex, what we don't want is a rate cut cycle. means bad news on the horizon. neil: the more you cut rates the more you acknowledge a reason to cut rates. i'm going to get that opportunity on fox news. a couple things i learned from jeffrey's, the house democratic leader saying asked if the president should stay in the race, he said talks are ongoing, responders no when asked if biden will hurt democrats at the top of the ticket. >> we will be with him every step of the way. light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare. and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow.

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adam: adam: the press conference later tonight, president biden discussing with the president of ukraine and a bilateral meeting announcing a new security package overwhelmingly backed by nato but the big question, the former russian -- former advisor to dick cheney, kind enough to join us. george, in the middle of all the president's issues and whether he's in control, this ongoing war. where do you see it going? >> the war is in a volatile situation. the russians are not making a lot of progress on the battlefield, not taking huge swaths of territory. momentum is on their side. they are wearing down ukraine's ability to put an army in the field gradually over time. not a lot the west can do to change that, can't provide

manpower to the ukrainians to make up for the deficit they've got vis-à-vis the russians. we are in a situation right now where the west is trying to see how far it can push its own aid tour ukraine in the russians trying to figure out how they can draw a line against deeper american and nato involvement without provoking a direct conflict with the west and those are two dangerous positions to be in. it heightens the chances we could end up in a war between the west and russia that neither side wants. neil: president biden says go slow on making ukraine a nato member. >> that is part of it. we've got a contradiction in our own approach, ukraine will be a member of nato sometime in

the future in the nato summit. the united states is saying we won't put boots on the ground and go to war with russia to defend ukraine. those positions are incompatible with one another. the united states will be obliging itself to go to war if necessary to defend ukraine against russia. we don't want to reconcile that position but some people are going to have 2. adam: the grand strategy for the responsible state -- definitely stage -- we've got the dow up, the nasdaq tumbling based on the same number. jackie: i am jackie deangelis.