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tv   Barrons Roundtable  FOX Business  July 28, 2024 9:30am-10:01am EDT

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estimates it will go from 1 - 1 and a half million dollars and part of the proceeds will benefit the los angeles lakers youth foundation empowering children through sports the winning bidder will receive a scrapbook in kobe's final game, we will follow with all on "mornings with maria" weekdays six -9 am eastern here on fox business, we will see you on sunday morning on the fox news channel at 10:00 a.m. eastern for "sunday morning futures" exclusive interviews with congressman byron donalds, for the governor ron desantis, former presidential candidate vivek ramaswamy" ability is to do president peter schweizer, join us live sunday morning on fox news that will do it on fox business, thank you for joining us, have a great rest of your weekend and i will see you again next time. ♪ "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x ets.
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jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i am jack otter, small stocks rallying as investors look to the fed's next move, franklin templeton the i owe gives her take on sectors that will benefit. later big tech and turmoil on what the selloff in the sector means for investors, we begin with the expert panel and three things investors outthink about right now on the "barron's roundtable", ben levisohn, megan leonhardt and andrew bary. one shark tells it all with what just happened to the market, if you let into look at the s&p 500 compared to small stocks there going in opposite directions. >> a major rotation it's not me spinning around my chair. people are selling their tech stocks and buying other stocks. in this case buying small cap we saw a rally in small-cap like we've never seen before relative to the s&p 500 going back to
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1986. it's because people are selling big tech and buying the small. jack: one of her colleagues pointed out there is so much money and big tech, i think andrew, th apple and nvidia aree entire size of the russell 2000. >> the russell 2000 is only 2 trillion which is less than one of the stocks. jack: what is it about small-cap that caught investors eyes. >> it's about the fed when we got them play should report earlier this month it showed inflation comes down to the point where the market started pricing 100% chance of a cut in september were probably not good to get one in july of next week but we will see in that got people thinking i ignored the asset class long enough i gotta put some money there and the companies really benefit from lower rates because interest rates at the gator higher and they don't have much cash and they benefit from a stronger economy which is one of the impacts of a rate cut, they
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really taken off from here. jack: a quick pivot to crypto a possible announcement on donald trump with bitcoin this week. >> bitcoin i always see as a trade-off of the nasdaq, it goes there and i'm more worried about the fed and are they going to be able to signal the september is really a go and were also going to have payroll after that even if the fed does signal september's ago may throw a wrench into the numbers. jack: not only tech but a really bad week for the automakers ford was down 20%, gm and tesla down within 10%, what is happening. jack: it was pretty dismal, investors were trepidation is on what they were seeing from earnings, honestly gm's earnings were decent they had better-than-expected results, they raise their guidance, arguably you thought this is going to be good but investors were not impressed i think there was concern about the ev we will have to see how that goes, tesla
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did not do as well obviously there earnings were lower than expected but this comes down to a little bit of razzle-dazzle from elon musk and we didn't get it there is some concerns about the robo taxi invention and everything else we will have to see how that goes. jack: were still waiting from the robo taxi the really bad news jim farley ford said it was getting control of the quality issues but $800 million spike in warranty cost. >> they had an absolute disaster of earnings, it was interesting because we did not get a signal ahead of time, it took investors a little bit by surprise, use all that and as of yesterday they were in bear markets were under territory, thursday was a disaster and i'm not sure they get to be able to recover quickly, this raises long-term concerns. >> a great american company but hard times. you pulled off something that very few business journalist can do the cover story about the financial engineering goldberg
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contraption that is john malone's liberty media empire, tell us about it. >> john malone has been investing in media and cable for 50 years and he controls in a surprisingly large number of companies, some are thriving like formula one and having the charter communication and the satellite radio company, there is investment opportunity with the malone empire and starters he is 83, you can see the sale of the company's in the coming years. jack: he is tax conscious and that's the way he controlled things, let's look at the bright spot formula one hot in the country and he has a way to play. >> he controlled formula one which is international racing business which is in popular in the u.s. and part the success of netflix drive to survive, stocks are around 75 and could be worth $100 a share, there could be nice upside there. jack: in vegas they repaved to make way for the race.
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>> the first race in vegas got a lot of attention. jack: thursday night the tenth inning and dinner by jeff mcneil beat the braves but that said the braves are pretty good franchise and you can invest in them. >> they consistently have been one of the best teams in major league baseball in there very well run from the financial perspective, what is interesting malone may sell the team in the coming year and he could get $3 billion plus for the braves which would translate into a stock price of around the mid to high 50s versus the current share price of around 43. jack: his timing is really good one in the hot investments every billionaire wanted team. jack: thank you, quilting inflation data convinced investors that the rate cuts are coming, franklin templeton cio settled design tells me the fed
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jack: markets rebounded friday on strong earnings and gdp and flow weed inflation with pce numbers in line with expectation that favor inflation up 2.5% in june from a year earlier, the slowest annual increase in three years but remaining above the 2% target. does the caller inflation mean the fed can cut rates again, here to discuss franklin templeton fixed income cio desai sonal, thank you for joining us all the way from malan. it's nice to be here thank you. what is next week's economic data tell you when the fed can start cutting rates and how low do you think they will go. >> the main thing is the data, the market is finally larger
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informed at least the bond market and the fed is likely to cut but it's not going to go overboard and we are looking at two cuts this year, probably starting in september and more importantly i'm not anticipating more than 125, 100 woody five basis point cuts in the cycle. i don't expect rates to go as low perhaps as the market is currently anticipating to around 4% market is saying 3.75 but i think bond markets have been good about this they have not been overshooting. jack: part of the reason you are saying that because you expressed concern that a long and of the yield curve especially will be affected by deficit which you say are probably going to continue to go higher and whoever wins in november. >> pretty much. i think the expectation or anticipation of extreme fiscal
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conservatism from either party is vastly overdone. we have had a democratic administration as we know for the last three or four years and massive deficits. if i look at the plans from the republicans that is awkward to result in smaller deficit. whether you go with the democratic administration were republican administration i think for fiscal conservatism is not in fashion right now. jack: what is particularly interesting we're going to get wonky for no more than 60 seconds this is what is called procyclical stimulus which is historically unusual economics one-on-one as you can cut taxes and increase spending and bad times but when times are good you are not supposed to do that. >> that's absolutely correct, here's the thing we've been growing so much beyond potential and the fiscal deficit issues close to 7% of gdp we've been at
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6% plus the last several years and before anyone stops talking about tax cuts is not just the tax cuts into massive spending in the post-covid. and it doesn't seem to go away the reason the economist don't like that typically when the economy is doing badly you want the government to be able to increase its deficit in the deficit will go up because unemployment payments go up during times of economic slowdown. it is not supposed to happen with the economy is doing fine by itself. jack: i want to get to two stock pics and investment ideas the first one is equity related and at the beginning of the year you told barron's you were keying on a value fund with investment stocks in the last few weeks it seemed like that was a smart move. >> i think what really happened i'm an equity person as you know, what has happened is over the last 18 months we have seen that the top ten stops just talks and returns have gone from 25% of the s&p to 37%,
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essentially things are so stretched that we got a snapback we don't expect to see the snapback as rapidly perhaps as we saw but it's completely online with the team and the expansion of rodney of the s&p performance to other parts of the structure including small and mid in broadening out this is what we need to play it's not the a.i. is not important but it's a good idea to play a.i. via energy and other areas i impacted by a.i. i am not gambling a.i. jack: is a powerful force, real quick in a few seconds can you tell us about this etf that owns floating-rate securities with a nice yield. >> the yield is close to 9% and essentially what we are looking at with the floating-rate fund is a very actively managed
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background fund, we don't expect interest rates to come dramatically lower however, any cut and interest rate will impact and positively impact some of the borrowers. i think this is a good place to get your income as if in my environment and my outlook i'm not anticipating a massive collapse of the economy and i think this would be a good pla place. jack: settled design, taken for the economic in the investment ideas we appreciate as always. big tech taking a tumble, we
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jack: the nasdaq getting crushed as a big tech selloff drives on the index of the magnificent seven done? senior writer paul lamonica a trade for a decade or more but a second that we can narrow the cues down by 4% despite the friday rally, what is going on. >> the earnings from alphabet and tesla really disappointed investors, not necessarily because they were that bad, alphabet had healthy results but the expectations were so high coming into the earnings season, tesla is a stock that would really beat up in the first quarter and the stunning rebound and all of a sudden a lot of high expectations for tesla, they missed earnings estimate so that sent the stock down pretty sharply after the results came out. jack: the a.i. is cutting both ways because google might be a beneficiary but at the same time massive spending getting geared up for a.i. and some companies
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are doing well and some i think investors are worried that the roi is going to be there. >> when you look alphabet and the fact that they are spending so aggressively 12 - $13 billion a quarter, that is nearly $50 billion for a full year, a lot of money in the payoff is not certain in the same way for nvidia and some of the other chip companies that are probably pretty sharply because a.i. results. >> you mention alphabet results were not quite so terrible what were you optimistic about in the basket if you will? >> i think overall alphabet remains the dominant player in search so advertising revenue should hold up well for them in the a.i. investment is not a case that we don't know if they're going to pan out over the long haul but there spending so much money and a time where investors are worried about companies impossible profligate
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spending. >> it sounds like investors need to be a little bit patient. >> yes they do, these are going to take a couple of years for these investments to probably pan out it's not going to be the immediate payoff. >> with nvidia using the prime a.i. play, the stock is pulled back about 20% of the recent high of the huge run earlier this year and the valuation still not cheap at 40 time earnings what do you think about that. >> nvidia still looks pretty interesting because they have pricing power and they are the clear dominant leader in a.i., intel is woefully behind amd and trying to catch up, not to sound pollyanna-ish, a bit around the tech bubble nvidia earnings is by no means cheap is a market multiple but not a triple digit pe from the late '90s and early 2000, nvidia has corrected
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already, and we get the earnings in late may set the entire tech sector on an amazing rally again and more needs to be seen whether that can happen in late august as well. >> one thing i find interesting is the rotation not just out of tech but it seems to be within tech where we see software stocks like the etf which is a software etf, that is holding up pretty well as tech gets hit and then you have service now which popped on his earnings because a.i. seems to be helping. >> a strong performance from service now and it clearly benefiting the company's result, it is similar to what we saw with adobe and oracle early on, the results fueled by a.i. and the stocks have done well but it's really a pick or choose type of market right now, salesforce had a stumble after they reported the latest quarterly earnings and a.i. taking a little bit longer to pn out for them.
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jack: next week we have meta, apple, amazon and microsoft, the mama trade if you will, what you expecting. >> for the magnificent seven were you to be looking very closely to see what meta, a.i. investment looks like, will there be a hangover similar to what happened with alphabet we know mark zuckerberg has now been afraid of spending on big themes even if they take a while to pan out, were waiting for the metaphors to pn out. the a.i. platform, who knows. with the case of microsoft and amazon i think the cloud business we will wait and see if there is momentum there with microsoft huge cloud business and aws on the amazon site and apple and a.i. play the a.i. enabled iphone is a way but they need to catch up and artificial intelligence to prove to wall street that it can be a player in this as well. >> super cycle buying the phones with the a.i. capability.
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the magnificent seven only three of the good guys rode away alive, we will see who survives it, steve mcqueen, one more, andrew? >> it's been a while since i've seen it. tamra, izzy and emma... no one puts more love into logistics than these three. you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. centrum! it's scientifically formulated to help you take charge of your health. centrum gives every body a healthy foundation. supporting your - oops - energy, immunity and metabolism. and yours too! you did it! plus try centrum silver, now clinically proven to support memory in older adults.
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>> boring is not a word that people associate with the presidential race but when, the hairs released the financial disclosure it was pretty boring plain-vanilla and index in retirement accounts and the rest of us. >> it was pretty similar to the average american if the average american was investing as much as a retirement as kamala harris
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and their husband do, they make a half a million dollars a year and they have some to put away and all said and done they range in 3.6 to little over six with a total investment portfolio i'm using ranges because of the disclosure forms do not give a specific, they have things like vanguard, i shares in the even have a target date fund, kamala harris even has a pension 90% of americans still participate in pensions and she is one of them. >> the other one is donald trump he has a pension from the actors union from home alone and other stuff. he 30 getting checks from that. one more thing in the disclosure that was interesting the mortgage rates. >> she is a great mortgage rate she and her husband is a great mortgage rate they have a home in l.a. and able to get 2.6 mortgage in 2020 it a be interesting to see how that shakes out in the future. jack: it could be a while but it'll be bad news if we do.
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let's go to actionable ideas, what do you have for us. >> the trade desk online advertising it dropped 4% because people were worried about youtube that great results when alphabet reported. it looks overblown and analysts are saying a bounce back from this one report earnings on august 8 looks pretty interesting. jack: you're tapping the malone empire. >> liberty theories, exim it is a tracking stock for series exim satellite radio comedy the appeal is trades at a 25% discount to the value of sirius xm and it closed in september when the two copies merged and you have a good company in the trade because berkshire hathaway owns 30% of the company. jack: i have a follow-up worm buffet likes siriusxm and sirius xm sinatra is his station, my son who is 17 said i don't know how to use the radio in my car
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it is all on the phone, spotify or whatever are you worried that sirius xm is awkward to be the thing. >> that's the challenge they have to try to get a younger audience because most of the audience is probably 50 plus, buffet is 93, the evaluation is relatively low and maybe they will have success in pandora. jack: to read more checkup this edition of barron's.com make sure you read andrew story, don't forget to follow us on access barron's online and facebook, and instagram for the latest show updates, that is all for us on "barron's roundtable". ♪ ♪ >> at the fox studios new york city this is "maria bartiromo wall street". >> happy weekend to all, welcome to the program that analyzes the

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