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tv   Cavuto Coast to Coast  FOX Business  July 31, 2024 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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olympics in 1896. nothing changes. you are still first. ashley: thank you very much. i have no clue. 43. how about that? stuart: ashley says 40 for you. john 43. john levine says? >> i'm going to say 28. lauren: what's the difference between a sport and an event? i go with 28. >> i'm going to go 34. stuart: the answer is 43. compare that to this year's summer olympics in paris which have 329 events. much more, quick check of the markets. we want to show the rally, nasdaq at 400 points, dow is up 220, solid gain for the s&p. time for coast to coast. i am handing you a nice one.
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neil: thank you for reminding me of the 1896 olympics. ashley: i knew it was coming. neil: by the 1900 olympics -- okay. thanks very much. on the corner of wall and broad, it's amazing. microsoft is a big reason we are having it. the stock was hit hard today but there was one part of the report we were talking about on the 4:00 p.m. :00 pm show. the ai spending the company is doing is off the charts, $19 billion. a lot of people interpreted that with amd's better-than-expected numbers lost in the sauce as proof that ai is here to stay in big spending is here to stay even though the companies that are spending big might not be
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getting the results they thought they would or or that it is overdone and this was just an excuse to sell but an excuse to sell microsoft. across the board the chip players are advancing, propelling the nasdaq like we've rarely seen in a comeback for the ages the same day the federal reserve is wrapping up a 2 day meeting, they expect not to do anything even though there had been talk may be that they could move at this meeting. my next guest is decidedly against such a move, kind enough to join us. a lot of people say you are the skunk at the picnic, you're the realist to keep the punch bowl in check, i watch the labor market and the unemployment rate is 4.1%. in some sense it is historically low. part of it is very positive. i like it but inflation is
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still 3% year over year, using the fed's favorite measures so it's still not 2% and they are talking rate cut in september. he went on to say that's kind of getting ahead of the game. do you still feel that way? >> here's how i look at it. the economy is doing good. we have a 2. 3% gdp number. it's the second quarter but early estimates are the third quarter, 3%. that's how it tends to run. unemployment is 4.1% and real wages are increasing. the consumer has slowed. real wages increasing in the consumers feeling the effects of the end of the government's subsidies for consumption in terms of covid relief program but they are able because of real wages increased to stay in
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the game. finally, inflation is still 3% year-over-year and it has been running that way for the year. pc is 2.6 but actually a little higher. look at real interest rates, the fed funds rate is 5.3. inflation is 3%. mildly restrictive, mildly only in an environment where the economy is doing well. 2% growth, 3% inflation, 4.1, 4.2. around 3% and the fed but lower that and only accelerate inflation. ashley: if you step back and you know what the markets are expecting even if no rate cut materializes today they are factoring three cuts this year. it seems wacky, but your thoughts. >> the third is making a
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mistake, they keep hinting, it's a 1-way bet so that automatically makes the financial markets easier than they otherwise would be instead of saying 3% or 2% is their target, we will wait and see. we will have a soft landing. inflation is down sharply when it is not. you can't do these things and not expect the market to react positively as they looking at a 1-way bet. it's only going to get better. if they lower rates it's going to move fassett buyers up more. we have a stock market rally for a while, they are working themselves. ashley: when you worry there, you don't want to be too earlier too late which they are orchestrating this soft landing but i get a sense from
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governors and district presidents talking that some are getting a little worried that if they delay a cut, they might be squashing this soft landing and triggering a recession and i'm not saying they are panicked but even the language, you're better interpreting it than i ever will be, i get a sense of that urgency here whether it is right or wrong. how do you balance that, how did you way that? >> it's very difficult and i empathize with their dilemma because if you do weight too long you may trigger a downturn that you can't stop as quickly as you want. that's why they have to talk longer-term. we look 3 months ahead at most and think about it. we have behind this a deficit of third of which has to be refinanced, and 2 trillion more
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that has to be financed newly that has to come out of the private sector putting out a question on the fed to ease sooner and stimulate so they have long run issues they are not addressing as openly as they should that makes their job even harder. they should be cautious in terms of saying we are going to cut or not or weight and see and why are they not talking more publicly about the dilemma they face d with the ever-increasing federal debt that someone has to fund, the corn sector is less interested, that leaves private sector putting pressure for the fed and the fed will come under a lot more pressure talking about that now to balance out the constant hints that we are going to ease, we are going to ease. they are probably going to ease but they need to talk about more. neil: always learn a lot, thank
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you for coming. another thomas i want to go to is thomas hayes of great health capital. you heard the other thomas and what he was saying about the environment, we don't need a cut right here but the markets certainly are anticipating not necessarily from today's meeting but they made a credible argument but that aside, market rates are very low. at 10 year out of 4. 09%, maybe you don't need to do anything, maybe the markets are doing heavy lifting for them. >> in hesse patient of the cut you have the fed funds rate over -- so the 10 year yield is compressing and in the event they walked back the cut you will see it shoot backup, markets would be down.
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it is little bit -- stuart: if they do nothing, the issue today is what they signal, if he sets the stage for september cut, how do markets deal with that? >> the surprise would be of september is not on the table, markets would be out quickly, the rotation has begun, july was the turning point. we saw dramatic rotation in anticipation, in december, the market is acting accordingly but what's interesting, tech and communication services for the month of july were negative, real estate was up 7%, utilities 5% so this is baked into the market. neil: let's talk technology. microsoft is getting credit for
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this even though numbers fail to impress especially its cloud database and business and all the rest but the fact of the matter was it indicated spending a lot of money on artificial intelligence in every facet. that was deemed as a sign this ai spending is still strong and lifting all the chipmakers. how do you interpret that? play it out for me. >> we have an ai arms race between microsoft, google and amazon and the ai arms dealers are short-term winners, nvidia, intel, amd that that's going to change. microsoft's was up 77. 6% while revenues were only up 15%. you wrote an article a month called the $600 billion question and what they said was
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given the backs they are spending they would need another 600 billion on revenue to support it. the market is a little nervous -- neil: i apologize, you 're going in and out. we will see what's going on here but thank you. that. we don't know what is going on. i want to go to trey yingst in tel aviv. in case you are wondering how the markets have been responding and why they are ignoring what a back to back killings of top-tier group leaders, hezbollah leader in the last 24 hours you would think the markets would be panicking here on the fear of a widening war. the fear might still be war but markets don't seem to think it will come to that, what can you tell us? >> reporter: the latest is the
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political leader of hamas is dead following a missile strike in the uranian capital of toronto overnight. the israelis have not taken credit for the strike, but they are likely behind it. i can't overstate how significant this event is. the hamas leader was in a guesthouse in toronto when it was hit by a missile. he had met with iran's supreme leader and the new uranian president. he replaced abraham rawis susan: following this better tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the islamic republic it is our duty to take revenge so there are questions what this means not just for the security situation in the middle east but cease-fire talks that have been ongoing. the qatari prime minister asks how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side. antony blinken saying this about the situation.
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>> i've seen the reports, all i can tell you right now is nothing takes away from the importance of as i said a moment ago, getting to the cease-fire. we've been working from day one to get to a better place in gaza and to prevent the conflict from spreading. >> earlier in the evening israel launched a separate strike in southern beirut killing of southern hezbollah commander in response to the rocket attack on a saturday that killed 12 people in the northern part of the golan heights. you can see the aftermath of that strike here, emergency crews responding and concern about a counter attack by iran amid these threats, israel struck inside uranian territory overnight. it raises questions about if iran is willing to risk hezbollah for the sake of a broader war.
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we are following concerning develop into the last hour out of gaza appears an israeli airstrike killed two al jazeera journalists. neil: i want to go to general keith kellogg. benjamin netanyahu said there is no daylight between israel and the us but clearly a very cautious response and very little after that. looks like a little daylight. what do you make of that. >> thinks. i think there's a huge gap between the united states and israel right now. i don't think the israelis trust any information they get from these two strikes. this was a trifecta. when you look at what they did going after and hezbollah in
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the north, our guy we had been after for a long time, responsible for the 1983 beirut attack that killed 232 us marines and they did it inside turnaround. that should make tehran very concerned because what kind of support are they getting? it's a trifecta. he went home, netanyahu got together with his war cabinet which is three people, himself and gallant, the minister of defense and they plotted this and planned and executed it so i think there's a split and the comment about the markets. they realized the markets are realizing the united states is not going to do anything. cute hands off which is a huge mistake because the only country that can bring this to some cessation of hostilities
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is the united states and all we do is talk about it. back to what nixon did in 1973 in the yom kippur war when he made a statement supporting his real, basically said everything flying, the air force filled with equipment to bolster israel, we haven't done that, got to send a message, we haven't done that. neil: what happens? it's a clear indication of hezbollah to the north and certainly what we've seen with iran that this is a widening war and uranian proxies, iran itself, hamas leaders death north of lebanon, that a widening more by definition. we wait for the response whatever it will be measured or otherwise, there will be a response. >> there is. this, think of the game of poker where the israelis went all in.
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when you see what they did by killing the number 2 in hezbollah, the number one in hamas, i don't see how hezbollah, the iranians, i discount hamas on this one cannot respond to what is going on. take a deep breath and see what's going to happen in the next 24, 72 hours. otherwise they are backing off. if they back off, that is huge for israel and the determinable asian of what they want to do. to me, talk about israel's right of self-defense, they have a moral obligation to defend what happened going back to 700. this could be pretty interesting few days coming up. neil: general keith kellogg on all of that, checking back with the latest development out of israel and iran. very limited responses on all sides are so we will keep an eye on that and also keeping an
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these sort of things aren't very worthwhile to spend your time on. got to get to the bottom of it. this is cooperation between local law enforcement and secret service, secret service is in charge. the public knows the secret service was not keeping in touch with local law enforcement and some assumptions, law enforcement with out communicating with local law enforcement. i made this all clear about the reluctance of the federal government to be transparent on this. and in a short period of time i made it available to the entire public.
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that is more than what the fbi and secret service brought out. >> some transparency with someone in government, there's a knee-jerk reaction, to hold back on this stuff. >> it is embarrassing to them. still have questions 60 years later about jfk's assassination. and they are going to be more transparent, and they don't
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answer questions and put information out. you don't get accountability, but it out to the public but for the most part but also the secret service does accept secrets on protecting the president of the united states and candidates ought to be made public. neil: donald trump wants to continue the outdoor rallies. candidates look to meet with people, and a large outgrowth of crowd. do you feel comfortable as things stand out her to return to outdoor rallies? >> the candidate out to make that decision. and particularly candidate for office like donald trump is, he
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knows how dangerous it is and if you wants to do outside campaign events and the fbi has to take the responsibility. and look at all the mistakes in butler, pennsylvania on july 13th and make sure those mistakes are not made again. neil: is the secret service as it stands now, up to delivering it? >> i think for the most part the secret service is up to delivering proper leadership at the top. you can see from the person who has now resigned as director and she wasn't able to answer the questions, she wasn't on top of this event, and put in a
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piece of legislation the director of the secret service is confirmed by the united states senate. the president of the united states and his people vetting the secret service director, would be better if we have more people vetted and stronger leadership. >> thank you for taking time. and focusing on the nasdaq, or better than 400 points, turns out microsoft which is the big disappointment, revenue and earnings, there was a little wrinkle in the that that it's cloud business was softer than
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neil: markets are waiting to hear from the federal reserve not expecting to cut rates today even though some are advocating that but leading the path to a september rate cuts. the best seller got her of what went wrong with capitalism, a series of what defines nations, increasing glee defines us is a lot of spending and other stuff. having said that, good to have you back on what difference would it make if the federal reserve joined other european central banks and stopped cutting rates? >> not going to make such a big difference.
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the structure of the economy changed to. why did so much affect tightening over the last couple of years not have a bigger impact on the the? a lot of the borrowing and lending is done with longer duration. any changes take a lot longer to have a real impact on the economy. markets are getting excited because they always do in terms of the prospect of easy money but the structure of the american economy has changed. interest rates don't have much impact on the economy for a couple reasons. lending and borrowing, so much liquidity that we are still
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looking at her liquidity hangover so i think any changes in interest rates is unlikely to have a bigger impact on the economy. ashley: you wrote an interesting piece in the financial times that addressed this sort of gluttony. you didn't call it that but in the coming years the us is on track to replace europe as the land of bigger government and slower growth. did you say that's going to happen regardless whether it is president biden in the white house, kamala harris, donald trump, that it is just this constant giant force that has taken over? >> i feel there are lots of problems with american capitalism and what i try to do is what needs to be done for a
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new administration to get american capitalism, to me, europe had 0 productivity. america's productivity declining due to a lack of dynamics and that lack of dynamism has been coming because of the role of government in our lives and our economy going steadily for the last few decades. the amount of regulation and what i mention in the book, trump's report is not as good as advertised but better than anything we've seen. the roots that we saw stifling for small and midsized businesses, explains why trump is more popular, regulation by definition helps big business
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and hurts small business less able to afford it and regulation is something which can be captured by the lobbyists in washington, big business and small businesses suffer out the wrong end of it. neil: and it cuts costs for businesses, the two are sort of joined at the hip. if donald trump makes it back to the white house, cut taxes and keep the tax cut thing going and extended them, could that be inflationary? some fear it would be. >> regulation is not. at this point the number one priority for a new administration has to be how do you get it under control? we are running deficits, what happens if we have a downturn?
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even a war? these deficits have historically been seen only in those environments. the one thing to make sure inflation remain stable is to get government spending under control. i cover extensively in my book, the agenda means what can you do in a capitalist framework to break that and yet popular, more deregulation, no bail outs, how you make property prices affordable again. these agendas off of a new administration are possible that the government needs to think about apart from the hard decision of doing something about spending. that is artificial. neil: the right or the left
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make their own mistakes. see how they would change under donald trump. thank you, good seeing you. in the meantime, i want to draw your attention to mother nature. there's a storm brewing in the atlantic getting a lot of people's attention. what are we looking at here? >> reporter: we are keeping and i on the tropics. turning the page into august, the peak of hurricane season is practically here. the main messaging is be prepared for anything as we go through the next several weeks. there's an area to watch in the atlantic around the lesser angeles, national hurricane center giving a 60% chance of developing to in the next 7 days. we are not anticipating this to come together if it does at all until sometime this weekend.
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we don't have an environment that's too conducive. we are seeing thunderstorms over the lesser antilles, developing tooth much of a storm system but as a thunderstorm activity drifts into the antilles over puerto rico, the dominican republic, thursday, friday we start to see the environment open up a bit but there are questions and more uncertainty than there is certainty at this point. as we go towards the weekend, stay with us because we are going to put the pieces together and give you a better idea of what we could the sea as we get into sunday into early next week. florida, the southeast, we want to start paying attention. models trying to pick up on what is happening right now. there's a lot of disagreement. the european model is the most consistent showing this low-pressure system developing around the bahamas. if it's a stronger storm it is
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likely going to get torn up and pulled to the northeast sliding just offshore but at the end of the day there is still a couple of scenarios. a weaker storm could drift into the gulf of mexico. you want to be prepared. florida by this weekend some enhanced thunderstorms with those showers. neil: great work, you are so on top of this stuff. jane will be all over this. in the meantime i went to bring your attention to bit coin prices moving up a bit, nothing like the 70,000 plus we saw after donald trump spoke to a crypto crowd in tennessee but the residuals from that are paying off big time for him next.
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>> welcome back to cavuto coast-to-coast in harrisburg, pennsylvania, donald trump will hold a rally, the first since the assassination attempt three weeks ago, happening three hours from where we are. over the last week the trump
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campaign has been racing to define kamala harris and they are starting to do that by going after her as a radical liberal especially trying to tie her to the border crisis. here is senator j.d. vance in a rally in reno, nevada last night. >> he is dangerously liberal and she will never be the president of the united states because we are not going to let her. she won't stop until every legal immigrant she let in becomes a voter. >> reporter: trump's first rally since harris replaced biden, he said he was done playing nice. he since call payers, quote, crazy, a bum, a middle vice president and has attacked her for shamelessly lying about biden's declining mental acuity. the trump campaign is zeroing in on harris's flip-flops on policy positions, harris's campaign says she no longer supports a ban on fracking,
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medicare for all are defunding the police. those are positions that have changed since 2020. the former president said this about the campaign calling trump plain weird. >> just plain weird, she is plain weird, she's a weird person. look at her past, look at what she does and look at what she used to say about herself. i won't get into what she used to say unto she was compared to what she said starting in 2016. she became a totally different person only for political reasons. >> reporter: the former president will take questions from black journalist at the association of black journalist, the poll numbers show biden won 90 one% of the black vote in 2020, latest polling shows harris with 69%. a lot of people expect the number to increase for harris,
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the trump people believe they can chip away at that vote and help them win in competitive states. neil: charlie gasparino has been falling this crypto industry love affair with donald trump since he spoke to was sold out crowd of enthusiasts. charles: this talk about weirdness reminds me of the scene in goodfellas, joe pesci, you are not normal. a lot of that going on. neil: what i love about it, you are weird, whatever. charles: we are all weird. i never heard the term weird thrown around as much particularly on j.d. vance, the least weird guy but i digress.
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i want to talk about something that's not so weird, bitcoin and crypto, donald trump's embrace of the industry is starting to pay off. votes coming in later, we don't know how many of these crypto voters a lot are single issue voters, it is a lot of people if they are vote for donald trump, could when a swing state. we don't know but right now the money seems to be coming in for donald. he was at the bitcoin conference, gave a speech where he said he was going to fire gary gensler and make crypto reserve currency. i was there for the ride, days before it didn't happen. senator loomis came out with a bill, the federal reserve
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currencies, trump suggests he would support that. he said bitcoin is a great thing and i will fire gary gensler, anti-crypto, put that together and he did get some money, 25 million, more money possibly coming in. democrats see merit in trump going after them. they are trying their own offense. they were late to the game. the hedge fund impresario, i don't think it will work because there's so much animus in the biden administration but that is where we are. people that attended the event,
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jake paul, kid rock, the winkle foss twins who gave money to trump and marsha blackburn was there and senator haggerty with a fundraiser. there you go. crypto is not weird. neil: we have more on technology after this. the military you're really close with your brothers and your sisters that are in the military with you. and when you get out of the military, you kind of lose that until you find a new family. we can talk about our struggles and the things that we did overseas and not everybody can do that. adam! how's it going, brother? we live pretty close to each other. so he's always coming over. when i go to jack's house, we watch a lot of football, hang out. we go outside the friendship has kind of grown into a family i was overseas on a deployment. i got separated from my marines and i got hit in the neck,
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and it broke my neck and paralyzed me. 14 years ago, i was on a training mission. did a military freefall, and i had some faulty equipment. i hit the ground. going, 30 to 40 knots and was instantly paralyzed. i met jack fanning when he invited us to park city, utah, through his foundation. i was able to actually get on the mountain and ski with my family, i can't put into words what that meant. i got paid in the military to do crazy fun stuff. and after my accident, i'm still that same guy. and when i was able to jump out of a perfectly good, helicopter, at 10,000 feet, i did it. i was talking to some vets last week amazing how we have these houses where they can come over because they■re in chairs too. carpet and wheelchairs don't mix very well. tunnel to towers, they got rid of all that. they redid my whole bathroom. that's probably the favorite
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part of my house. .. when they told me they're going to pay off my mortgage, i cried. please contribute $11 a month by visiting t2t.org now it's pods biggest sale of the summer is extended. save up to 25% on moving and storage until august 12 and see why pods has been trusted with over 6 million moves. but don't wait, use promo code big25 to save. visit pods.com today. ya know, if you were cashbacking you could earn on everything with just one card. chase freedom unlimited. so, if you're off the racking... ...or crab cracking, you're cashbacking.
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neil: microsoft and overstocks, big players, the chipplayers, david asman with us, microsoft in one corner and the other going the other way. what's going on? david: it is a $3 trillion company and the numbers they made were extraordinary.
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it's all about expectations, it was 2% short of what they were expecting. the cloud unit alone came in with revenue of $28.5 billion, that was 2% short of what they were expecting, huge numbers but they were expecting more. some investors saying it was a great time to buy, you are still down 10% from your higher month ago. it gets down 2%, some folks saying it is stable, revenue making hand over foot, revenue is coming in. one person who's not buying is nancy pelosi, the figures congress is forced to come out
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with, sold between one to $5 million worth of microsoft in order to buy one million dollars of nvidia. she is switching from microsoft to nvidia. a lot of other long-term investors saying it is in the long-run a great thing. neil: great numbers, spending on ai is off the charts which is why players are doing so well. again, to his point here. the disappointment for the day, for all the other players who are still counting, spending $19 billion. for all the guys providing juice and energy. they go one way and it goes th

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