initial claims have moved up, but they're pretty stable and they're historically not high at all. so the total scope of the data suggests a normalizing labor market. and, again, we are carefully watching to see that that continues to be the case. >> reporter: [inaudible] >> reporter: hi, victoria -- with politico. on the labor market, i was wondering how worried are you all about a unemployment rising to the point where it triggers the som rule? and would that potentially affect how quickly you cut rates? >> we -- so i would just say the question really is one of are we worried about a sharper downturn in the labor market. so, and the answer is we're watching really carefully for that. we're aware of that rule which is really a, you know, i would call it thattist call -- statistical thing that has

happened through history. statistical regularity, is what i'd call it. it's not like an economic rule where it's telling you something must happen. so again, what do we see? what are our eyes telling us? we look at all the things we're seeing, and what it looks like is a normalizing labor market. again, job creation at a pretty decent level, wages moving up at strong level but coming down gradually. job vacancies have come down, but they're still high by historical standards. so, again, i've been through some of data already. what we think we're seeing is a normalizing labor market, and ask and we're watching carefully to see if it turns out to be -- it starts to show signs that it's more than that, then we're well positioned to respond. >> reporter: is there reason to think the -- liz: you're watching "the claman countdown" son fox business. look at the nasdaq, up 526 the points after the federal reserve held interest rates steady for

the eighth time in a row, but jerome powell just declared the u.s. economy is in a good place. perhaps signaling slowing inflation means a september rate cut could be a surer bet. let's go back to the news conference. >> -- era has been one in so many apparent rules have been flouted like the inverted yield curve for starters. so many, many received, pieces of received wisdom just haven't worked. and it's because the situation really is unusual or you neck -- unique in that so much of this inflation came from the shutdown in the economy and the resulting supply problems in the face of admittedly very strong demand. so the whole situation is not the same as many of the other prior inflation downturns that we've seen or business cycles that we've seen. so we're having to learn, you know, we're having the, you know, be very careful about the judgments that we make, i would say. we don't assume that these regularities will just preet if

themselves automatically. repeat themselves automatically. >> [inaudible] >> reporter: thank you, chair powell, bloomberg. there seems to be quite a difference between what the anecdotal data are telling us such as the very recent down beat beige book, do you take those anecdotes seriously, that the economy is cooling much more rapidly than what's shown in the data? >> to i do take that seriously. -- so, i do take that seriously. what's even greater is hearing the reserve bank presidents come in and talk about their conversations with businesses, business leaders and workers and people in the private sector in their districts. but i'll tell you, it's a pretty, you know, the picture is not one of a slowing or, you know, a really bad economy. it's one of there are spots of weakness, and there are regions where growth is stronger than other regions. but overall, again, look at the aggregate day da. ago are regate data,

particularly pdfp is 2.6%, and that's a good indicator of private, of private demand. so we listen to the all of that. and it does -- i hi it's important to to listen to anecdotal and not just look at the aggregate data. especially it's very hard -- gdp if data can be volatile quarter to quarter. so it's just hard to measure economic activity. there are a loft -- it's just difficult to do. so i look at both. but i wouldn't9 say that the anecdotal is uniformly downbeat. it's more mixed. >> [inaudible] >> reporter: thank you. jo ling kent with cbs news. chair powell, thanks for for taking our questions today. you have consistently is said that the fed does not consider politics in making decisions. with a possible september rate cut on the the table, it would be less than two two months before the election, and former president trump reportedly said that cuing rates so close to the

election is something the central bank knows they shouldn't be doing. what's your response, and do you believe it's possible to really remain apolitical with a september rate cut? >> i absolutely do, and i think it's -- first of all, we haven't made any decisions. i would say it this way, haven't made any decision about any future meeting. i don't know what the data will reveal or how that will affect if the appropriate path of our policy. i really don't know. i do know how we will make that a assessment. that's what i do know. so if you take a step the back, the current situation, again, inflation has come down much closer to our goal, and that's happened while unemploymenthas remained low. we're very tightly focused on using our tools to try to poster that state of affairs continuing. -- to foster that state of affairs. each of our meetings and all of our decisions are focused strictly on that and really on nothing else, doing our part. whatever that part may be. you know, we're using our best thinking. we're doing our best to

understand the economy. we follow act dem i said -- academics, we follow the many commentators who bless us with their commentary -- [laughter] but we don't change anything in our approach to address other factors like the political calendar. congress has, we believe, ordered us to the conduct to our business in a nonpolitical way at all time, not just some of the times. i'll say this too, we never use our tools to support or oppose if a political party, a politician or any political outcome. the bottom line is if we do our very best to do our part and we stick to our part, that will benefit all americans. if we get it right, the economy will be stronger, we'll have price stability, people will find jobs, wages will rise in real terms, everyone will benefit. so that's what we believe, and that's how we will always act. this is my fourth presidential election at the fed. i can tell you this is the how we think about. this is what we do. so mig that we do -- anything

that we do before, during or after the election will be based on the data, the outlook and the balance of risks and not on anything else. >> reporter: just a quick follow-up. do your economic forecasts and models take into account the two very different economic plans of these two presidential candidates, harris and trump in and if so, how? >> no, we do not do that. we absolutely do not do that. we don't know who's going to win, we don't know what they're going to do. we don't act as though we know, and we just can't do that, you know? basically, we have our forecast. we're not -- we can run simulations of different potential policies, but we would never try to make policy decisions based on the outcome of an election that hasn't happened yet. that would be a line we would never cross. you know, we're a nonpolitical agency. we don't want to be involved in politics in any way, so we wouldn't do that. >> nicholas. >> reporter: thank you, chair

powell. nicholas do -- from barron's magazine. there hasn't been a dissenting vote on an interest rate decision in some time. if the data do evolve as you expect, if you do have more confidence by the september meeting, do you get the sense there will be a unanimous vote op on interest rate move many september? the basically, are there meaningful differences in committee members' assessments of how much more confidence is needed? >> so there's all a, there are always meaningful differences. there are. and, you know, we talk a a lot before, curl and after the meeting. -- during and after the meeting. we do have a very robust discussion of these things. you're right that in most cases people, if they feel heard and they feel that their, you know, their position has been given serious consideration, for most people most of the time that's going to be enough. there are dissents. that's fine, you know? if no one has a veto. no single person has a veto. so it just is a question of who

will vote for and against. we've had, we've had, you know, dissents. we haven't had so many during the pandemic era, and it just may be that, you know, we felt more united because we felt, you know, under a lot of pressure if to get things right. but before the pandemic we had plenty of dissevens. you know, dissents happen. it's part of the process. there's nothing wrong with dissents. and if it happens, it happens. >> steve. >> reporter: hello, jean young with m and i market news. is a 50 basis point cut as a first cut at all likely or even on the table? >> you know, i don't want to say specific about what we're going to do, but that's not something we're think about right now. >> jennifer -- >> of course, we haven't made any decisions at all add add of today today. >> reporter: jennifer

schaumberger with yahoo! finance. not to get into the minutes, but i'm curious if you could provide some more color about the nature of a possible rate cut as a early as september. >> well, so, you know, the way the meeting is set up the first day there's a discussion of financial stability because it's every other meeting we have that. and then we have an opportunity to comment on that. then we have an economic go around, and then this morning we have the monetary policy go-around. and i think in people's economic and in their monetary policy go-around people express their views about this. and, you know, there's a range of views. as you will know from speeches that they give, people have different ways of thinking about the economy. so in the minutes, we'll lay this out many in a much better way than i can do off the cuff. but there's a range of perspectives, and, you know, but

i do think that, you know, we're a consensus-driven organization. people come together. this was a unanimous, a unanimous decision and at the end everyone -- and everyone supported the outcome. not just the voters, but everyone. you know, i would also say some people examine the possibility, you know, the case for moving at this meeting. but overwhelmingly, the sense to have the committee was not at this meeting, but as soon as the next meeting depending on how the data come in. >> but there is a growing sense of confidence that you could move at the next meeting -- >> yes. >> -- assuming that inflation -- >> assuming that the the totality of the data sports such an outcome. no question that is the case. as i mentioned, you know, we, with we think that the time is -- it's approaching. and if we do get the data that we hope we get, then, or you know, a reduction in our policy

rate could be on the table at the september meeting. >> [inaudible] >> reporter: hi, chair powell. nancy marshall again, sir, with marketplace. former new york fed president bill dudley wrote an op-ed earlier this month which you probably saw in which he said, quote, it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates. dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk. is he wrong? >> so this is the judgment that we have to make, and we're well aware of the judgment. we're, you know, we're, as aye said, we have the -- i've said is, we have to weigh the riskings of going too soon against the risks of going too late. if we go too soon, you know, we had a lot of advice to go ahead and cut off the -- after the seven good months of last year. we didn't. we said we needed to see more, then we saw hayer inflation. we've -- saw higher inflags.

as i mentioned, i don't think it needs to to, you know, cool off any more for us to get the inflation results that are related to the labor market. not all a inflation is, of course. so i think it's a difficult judgment to make, and what you see the is the judgment of the committee. that time is drawing near. that time could be in september. if, you know, if the data support that. >> and chances of a hard landing, have they increased? >> so i don't know whether they've increased. i think they're crow -- low. you don't see any reason to think this economy is either overheating or sharply weakening. that's just not in the data right now. what's in the data right now is an economy that's growing at a solid pace, a labor market that has cooled off but, nonetheless, inflation -- sorry, unemployment is low. the data overall show a strong

labor market. and, you know, so that's really what you see. it's not -- it's neither an overheating economy, nor is it a sharply weakening economy. if it's kind of what you would want to see, but, of course, the job is never done, you know? if we're watching to see which way the economy heads, and i think if we are to respond to weakness, we're certainly, you know, well equipped to do that. but that's not what we're seeing. what we're seeing is strong economic activity and, you know, a good labor market and inflation coming down. >> [inaudible] >> reporter: thank you so much. in the minutes of the june meeting that came out a few weeks ago, there was a discussion about a communications. some fed officials said maybe the fed wasn't clear enough about its reaction function. and when i talk to other commentators who bless you with their comments --

[laughter] they say that they really don't have a sense of what is going to judge -- maybe not the first cut, but the pace of the cuts going forward. they don't have a good since of that. is there anything you can say, like, how will we judge that? >> yeah, i mean, i think the reality is that forecasters -- and this isn't just the fed, by any means. forecasters have been continually surprised by, for example, the strength of the economy last year. so i think we had to be pretty humble about giving forward guidance about this, that and the other thing. we need to be pretty careful about that. and, you know, when you're saying you're going to be data-driven, of course it's always a what the data, how they affect the outlook in the balance of risks. but nobody has great vision deep into the future. in terms of a reaction function, that's a longtime, you know, discussion that people have had forever. i think people have understood for a long time, actually, that

we were very focused on bringing down flakes. nobody was really confused about that -- down inflation. the data have, you know, again, you've seen significant improvement in inflation just for the last quarter. markets move if around on the data really not so much -- it's not really what we're going to do, the it's more just that the data keep coming in. and the markets are very response bito that a data right now. >> jeff is the last question. >> reporter: thank you, mr. chairman. going to change gears on you just a little bit from all of the rate a talk and what not. [laughter] with fed if now being in the books for a little over a year, there hasn't been a whole lot of talk about central bank digital currency, and wondering if you could give us an update on things are with that. is that considered an issue now? is it still something that's being discussed within the committee? and what's happening with that? >> it's not something that comes up at all in the fomc.

so more broadly, digital finances is an area that's having, it has really significant implications for payments generally. instant payments. and, you know, it's something that's going to really change the way, it's going to the make more efficient and hopefully safer and all those things the way a payments are a made around the world. and so we have people who are researching that and trying to keep up to speed because we play an important role in the payments sector. both as a, you know, as a convener and as an operator too. if in terms of a cbdc, there's really nothing new going on. there's not much going on at all. we're to not -- we don't have the authority to issue a, you know, a retail cdbc that's available to the public. we're not seeking that authority. so what we're doing is keeping up with, keeping up with developments there. pretty much every major central bank in the world is at least doing that. some of them are actually seriously looking at implementing a cdbc. we're really not.

we're really just evaluating the story and what's happening out there. so, you know, i think it's work that we need to be doing which could be very beneficial down the road, but we don't have on a cbdc, we don't have any plan to -- we would need to go to congress, and we have no plan to do that. no one here has decided that we think it's a good idea yet. >> thank you. >> thank you. liz: well, well, well, could it be that that eight in enough? after eight federal reserve meetings where the fed has left interest rates at 23-year highs, fed chairman jerome powell saying the words out loud, a september rate cut is, quote, approaching and could be on the table because, he said, we are in a good place. but you know what always comes with an it's a rick, the fed chair also said the path ahead depends on the economy expect data. and the data. >> i would just say i could imagine a scenario in which there would be everywhere from zero cuts to several cuts

depending on the way the economy involves. and i wouldn't want to lay out a baseline path for you here today to. liz: for now, the f if omc holding interest rates steady for the eighth straight meeting. markets were already higher before the 2 p.m. announcement, but wait until we show you the intradays. they really started running at a faster clip. when powell began speaking, particularly at the news conference. so the dow had already been down earlier 87 points until around a 10 a.m. eastern, flipped like a dolphin and headed north. the dow topping 41,000 on this final if trading day of july. but then you can also see kicked into higher gear 20 the minutes before the fed's 2 p.m. announcement. and right now the fed is up 286 points or three-quarters of a percent. look at the s&p. having quite the bull party here. the broader index, 108 points or 2 higher. right now of we have got it up about 9 of, at the early point it was at so 88 -- 108.

gaining steam as powell spoke. but look at the nasdaq. the tech-heavy index is charging higher by 482 points, just off session highs of more than 500 points. some crazy, bullish moves in big tech, particularly nvidia which is spiking right now. and then you have a really pronounceed move in both the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields. before the news conference, the 10-year was at 4.14%. right now it has dropped 4.8 basis points to 4.0 to 99 9%. then the 2 2-year earlier had been at 4.38% right before the meeting. it too is dropping, kind of like a rock, down 4.3 basis points to 4.311. all right. because powell was the most clearest, was the clearest he has been in more than a year, that that, yes, a rate cut is coming, big banks are extremely interest rate-sensitive. we should check in on them. higher the interest rate, the more they make on loans.

if rates are going to go down, or it's beneficial for goldman sachs. hitting an all-time high once again, it's at $505 -- 511. morgan stanley gaining as a well. citi, jpmorgan and bank of america. they all do a lot of lending. maybe less so recently, but they are in the red let's call it slightly. wall street fear gauge, this is interesting, the volatility index starting the day with no fear and continuing to show even less than what was there. we have it down about 1.5 here to 16.6% and so as we watch the markets really embrace what the federal reserve has done and said and may very well do, let's bring in wharton school professor jeremy siegel. he's been listening right along with the rest of us. professor, your gut reaction, and what do you think is behind the fact that the markets have really taken off like a rocket? >> well, first of all, his press

conference was much more dovish than the statement. frankly, i was a little disappointed in the statement. i thought it was more balanced than it had to be rather than telling, hey, we're on the route towards the cut. but it was very clear from the conference that he is on the rate -- on the path towards a rate cut. i was surprised that he said there was discussion about maybe a rate cut in july. now, that's not powell's policy. he prepares the market, so he wouldn't have wanted a surprise rate cut today. but he admitted there was discussion on that. once you get discussion on that unless things really, you know, go south in the next six weeks, that means there's going to be a cut in september. the only thing a little bit disturbed me, he sort of said, egg -- well, 50 basis points is off the table.

i don't think that's likely in september, but i think everything should be on the table. and if the economy does weaken, there's no reason why they should not go 50 basis points. but other than that, this was a very good press conference for the stock market. liz: see, i'm hearing you say -- and i sort of feel like the conversation about a rate cut now has to change from when to by how much. so a 50basis point, he really insisted he would have to see market deterioration in the economic numbers. do you see any of that coming? >> not necessarily. i do -- the beige book did show some weakness. there are lags. you know, jobless claims are at 240 which is that top range of where i feel comfortable -- liz: and i just interrupt you? >> yeah. liz: we got the adp number today for the month of july, and it showed the smallest increase since, what, three years ago, july of 2021. >> right. yeah. liz: that's the precursor to friday's labor department report

for the month of july. >> and that'll be very, very important. and there were some very good questions, i thought, from the group. in a way, we've reached the targets that we had in the march meeting where the committee thought we were going to have three rate cuts or more. so that would be more than just one in september and one in december. i mean, the fed thinks that the neutral fed funds rate is now, you know, 2.8% and we're 5.3 right now. we're way above neutral. and if we're getting towards the targets as a fast as he employ ply -- implies, that means we should not just tarry along here and take quarter-point cuts every other meeting. we will go way too slow in that case. liz: yeah. and that is -- that could be worrisome. there are some very smart people, mohamed mohamed el arkansas january has said, be careful, you may already be lat-

>> and dudley. liz: -- something you said earlier really popped out to all of us on the set here and that was, specifically, it made it sound like inflation, he said, is no longer the number one worry here. listen to what he said and then i'll have you comment. >> we don't need to be 100 to% focused on inflation if because of the progress we've made. 12-month headline at 22.5, core 22.6, you know, it's way down from where it was -- the 2.6. we can afford to bin to dial back the restriction in our policy rate. liz: yeah. what do you think about that? >> well, you know, it -- the neutrality, which means he's looking at a employment, at least as much as inflation if really came through at this meeting. he almost put it slightly above inflation as -- liz: yeah, he did. >> -- the current worry and that is, right, that's the first time that's happened since, what,

2020, 2020321 is 1. so you believed really -- 202211. you could really see that. and he said the totality of the data, almost implying that even if we get an inflation report next month that's not quite as good as we hoped for, if we see any deterioration in the labor market, we're going to go in september anyways. that was, that tone to that discussion which is also a very good place to be. he wasn't just saying we're just looking at inflation by any means. liz: let me throw you a scenario, professor. what if friday we get a jobs report for the month if of july that looks way worse than what's expected or even slightly worse? the expectations, at least right now, is we will see a gain of 175,000 jobs, unemployment rate staying at 4.11%. if it comes in, let's say, 1162 -- i'm just -- 162, i'm just throwing out numbers here, what do you think? >> yeah. if you see is, i mean, you know, there's a lot of volatility. if the report comes in less than, let's say, 1000 and if the

unemployment rate ticks up to 4.22% -- i'm not saying those are the most likely, but they are certainly possible rates, you know what the discussion will be. hey, the the fed is behind the curve. and then the discussion will be, you know, not just one rate cut in september, but could you go 50 basis points in september. that's what the discussion will be on friday if we get the weakness that you pointed out. liz: yeah. well, we shall see. and everybody better stay tuned on friday because that's going to be a potentially very choppy, perhaps, day. jeremy, thank you so very much. if go back to the office. go back to your classes. thank you very much. [laughter] okay, to the markets. by the way, 34 minutes left to to trade on in this final day of july. the bulls stampeding. but we see this gain, at about 80 points for the s&p 500, 84 at the moment, that gives it the rocket fuel it needed to flip into positive territory for the

month. it needs to maintain a gain of 24 points at the close. or more, which is where we are right now, to end july in the green. coming into today's session, the nasdaq had been down 3% for the month if, but with today's rip-roaring rally adding about 4311 points at the moment, the tech-heavy index has shaved that down to lesses than -1%. dow would have a third month of gains in a row. treasuries have been in retreat over the last three months. the 2-year at 4.the 299 at the moment is now down 6.4 basis points. it was above 5% back in may. let's look at the 5-year, and andy brenner's going to tell you why in just a minute. it is on the can cusp of -- oh, it's hit a 3-handle. folks, this is important. 3.96%, so there's your 3 handle. on may 1st the 5-year had stood at 4.7. rates are dropping right now.

let's get right to the floor show to dissect the action. joining me now, jpmorgan's chief market strategist for the americas gabriela santos and king andy brenner. andy, what is happening9 with the bond markets? the what do they hear? pit appears they hear rate cut in september. >> not only do they hear rate cut in september, they hear a really weaking unemployment if number. we think that -- weakening unemployment number. we think the unemployment rate could actually tick the up to 4.2, and that would trigger the som rule, and while we don't see that as aing being recessionary just as we didn't see the 32 thes -- 2s-10s inversion, i think it's going to put a scare into the fed. they could very well go 50 in september, but for right now, i'm still looking for three rate cuts for the year, and i will adjust as needed. liz: is the bond nirvana trade

over now? do you go into the stock market? >> liz, i'll answer that differencely. i find -- i look at -- differently. i look at these things historically. august and september are two of the, are the two worst months for equities of the 12 months of the year, so i wouldn't do that just yet. especially right in front of an election: so, no. i mean, i might take my profits in bonds, but it look like they might have a little bit more to to go but not a lot. liz: gabrielle, i feel like you're going to disagree with that. >> i would say that cash nirvana is over. if we think about we just mentioned the last rate hike was a year ago. rates are at 23-year highs. might have felt good to just have a 6-month cd at the bank or maybe 3-month treasuries, but those actually peaked last year, and they're going to keep coming down, coming down fast. now that chair powell basically told us wink-wink, nod-nod, we're cutting rates in september, this is the start of a cutting cycle. we do thinks it is a much better environment for longer-term

bonds now exactly because you don't have that risk of rates moving higher, and it's still a pretty good sweet and the for equities. beau bonds and risk assets is just get out of cash. liz: is there a cost to inaction by investors who are still sitting on the sidelines and not putting money into stocks? >> absolutely. i think it's interesting because psychologically, you know, we might have money in a savings account or a cd, and it doesn't really fluctuate all that much. it might feel good, but actually if we compare to what kind of returns we could have gotten elsewhere, there's been a huge opportunity cost already, and it's only going to get worse. in september of last year when cash rates peakedded, they have come down since, cash is up about 5, bonds are up 6. most importantly, stocks are up over 30%. so, yes, it might seem more risky, it fluctuates a lot more, but you really have to do the math, and that cost is only going to get bigger. liz: well, we're off the sugar high here. can we just say that the dow's high of the session was a gain

of 4511 points, and right d -- 451 and now we're up just 81. what is the psychology that is shaving or let's say chopping a lot of the gains off here? >> liz, in the last week we've seen equities do extremely well in the morning, oversight into the morning session and then by the afternoon it gets crushed. and it ends up being close. now, today you have the other added factor, it's month end. so the allocations are going back and forth. so where we are -- i always say, and this is more true this time than others, that you really have to wait about a 118 hours from now before -- 18 hours from now before you really know what's going to on. in that 18-hour period, the bank of england rate cut -- at least i assume it's a rate cut, i don't know how you guys think -- tomorrow morning and 24 the hours later an unemployment number which could scare everything. liz: yeah. go ahead -- >> it's a little nuanced

because, you know, as chair powell said, we would characterize it as a good, not great economy. it's a good environment for equities but not across the board every single company is going to be able to do well. the growth is down shifting -- liz: let me interrupt. what is the trade if rates are now going to come down? and he was clear, this isn't a baseline meaning just because we go in september doesn't mean we'll go in november, although fed funds futures in november are showing a near 1000% odds o. but what is the area of the stock market that does really well with lower rates? >> i think it's the magnitude and the why of rate cuts that are super important. in terms of the magnitude, these are gradual rate a cuts. once a quarter, just slow adjustments. knotts a massive rate-cutting cycle -- it's not a massive rate-cutting cycle, so we don't it's a time to go all in on small caps. we would prefer large caps -- liz: okay. and the rotation has done really, really well. >> and within large caps there's

no need, in our mind, rotate large to small. you could rotate within large. so the kind of stocks that can do well is why rates are coming down. there's better balance, but the economy's still good. is that means things that are a bit more value, a bit more cyclically oriented can do well -- >> can can i ask one question? liz: yeah, of course. >> i agree with you, generally speaking, but aren't you worried that, in fact, what the bank of japan did last night and how the yen just rallied and given how much of the world is dependent upon the yen carry trade that that's going to be a problem? even though you don't see it today -- >> i think we have been seeing that effect. so july 1 11th was really a seminal moment. that's when june cpi came out. everyone had a lot more conviction on bank rate cuts, the bank of japan pan got more hawker. i think you see an un-- hawkish.

>> not today though. >> not today, but over this month mag 7 are down nearly 10%. so what the, take a bit of a breatherrer the. liz: and as andy points out, august, september, not traditionally good months. who knows what's going to happen? thank you very much. folks, the nasdaq up 440 points. hey, anybody who's in tech right now has got to be happy. investors are showing match group some love too, and we're looking at a gain there of about 13.5. shares of the online dating service company, a top perform on the s&p, it's on track to close at a 6-month high. company beat on both the top and bottom line in the second quarter report thanks to revenue from its dating app hinge. hinge is hot, i guess. rising 48% year-over-year. match group announced it will remove if live streaming from its dating apps and slash 66% of

jobs -- 6% of jobs to help cut costs. this comes about two weeks after an activist investor took a stake in the company push for a sale unless it can revive the longer term business. meanwhile, humana is the biggest loser on the s&p 500, down 1 is 11%. it's one of the largest medicare advantage insurers. it saw higher than expected in-patient admissions. humana's consolidated benefit ratio that tracks the portion of premiums paid out to cover medical costs rose to 88.9% from 86.1% in the year-ago quarter. if humana maintaining its full-year outlook as it expects higher medical care costs to persist through the end of this year. starbucks' stock, well, after an ugly day yesterday post-earnings, it's energized by at least 32.7%. -- 2.7%. it came out with a lackluster fiscal third quarter report

missing revenue estimates as consumers pulled back during the quarter pretty much across the globe. here in the u.s., same-store sales dipped 2%. china's sales dove 14%. starbucks' ceo said consumers are shifting spending to packaged coffee at grocery stores which is, of course, weighing on sales at cafés where u.s. traffic sank 6% year-over-year. starbucks says it will try to incentivize consumers to come in stores and reegg night sales with new product launches. how about cutting the price of my two-pump if soy extra hot chai latte? please. pinterest, that stock is falling about 14%. it's on track for its worst day in around many -- in more than a year despite reporting a second quarter beat. guidance for the current quarter has sent the stock tumbling. the company projects third quarter revenue up to $90 to 90 million. wall street was looking for $907 meeting. the cfo said revenue if growth

with it consumer goods advertisers is experiencing a pullback due to headwinds in the sector. all right. we need to bring in mona because she is the edward jones' senior investment strategist. is this where we're going, guys? if okay. let's bring in mona because i have to know for you, from what you heard right now please tell our investor audience what they should stay away from. versus jump into. we'll get to that in a minute. [laughter] >> yeah. thanks, liz. it's great to be here. i think right now what we're seeing, similar to your last guest, the biggest risk is being too overweight cash and consider cash-like instrument99. you want to make sure, you know, we all love the c'd, money markets at 5.5, 666% plus and rightfully so, we haven't seen those types of rates in years, but the fed is telling us it's going to start a rate-outing cycle, and those rates will -- there's a reinvestment risk

right now. if your 66-month cd will be priced at a lower intereste, you want to be mindful you're sticking to your strategic allocations in both equities and bonds. look, the equity market has had a great rally. the s&p 500 is up over 14% year to date. but underneath the surface if we know still that that was led by mega-cap technology, by that mag if enough sent seven. what we are seeing in recent weeks, of course, is not only a rotation, you know, people selling tech and going into other parts of the market, but also a broadening. and i think that's the direction of travel we want to see portfolios going. keep in mind if the theme of the last year and a half was narrow leadership and narrow portfolios that were winning, we think the theme for the next six months and beyond is really broader and diversified portfolios that wil- liz: okay. diversified to where, mona? if because you just said there isn't exactly a very typical row agoation. but for the quarter so far --

rotation. the russell is up 10% while the s&p for the quarter is way below that and gaining 1%. nasdaq's negative for the quarter so far. >> yeah. you know, absolutely. look, i think investors were seeking where can they find value at this point in the cycle, where are the valuations looking more attractive and where is the earnings growth going to come from going forward. so what we're seeing is two things. one, earnings growth, you know, this quarter and next quarter has still been led by large cap technology, the a.i. theme. but as we head towards q4, if you look at the breakdown of earnings contribution, it comes more so from outside of technology than within technology. so you're really getting this broadening of earnings leadership. and, of course, the valuation disparities have gotten perhaps, you know, in tech had just run too far, too fast. and we want to, you know, the s&p equal right is trading around 16.5 times, the nasdaq closer to 30 times. so you see that disparity, and

you want to make sure that you have in your portfolio parts of the market that can benefit from fed rate cuts and valuation expansion. because that usually, lower interest rates usually leads to valuation expansion. and the areas of the market that have the most scope for valuation expansion, of course, include value, cyclical parts of the market. if you don't like to go down to small caps, we actually prefer mid caps here. we also like sectors like industrials, like areas outside, you know, some of the defensive markets like utilities in addition to your with a.i., technology trade which still has, we think, long-term potential in the economy and the market. so a balanced portfolio. liz: okay. balanced portfolio. interestingly, we're showing bonds. i really want to show other things like the utilities because that is certainly something that pays people to wait. they have very nice yields. you're saying that is now the opportunity trade? >> yeah. we think utilities is a very,

you know, pretty favorable here. it is not only, like you said, a high dividend player, it also benefits in some ways from the if a.i. trade because as these companies need more and more data, they also need more and more energy to support that data, and utilities provide that. and, you know, these are traditionally if the economy is softening, investors tend to go towards these kind of defensive parts of the market. and utilities is certainly participant of that. by the way, they've also underperformed over the last year and a half, so perhaps some catchup there. that's one sector that we think could be pretty interesting going forward. liz: let me, i do want to, i do want to address a huge portion of the audience that i would say about a 6-8 months ago said, oh, wow, finally my bank is offering a much better yield on cds and money markets. i get what you're saying, i get what gabriela said, that you've got to stay away from those type of cash instruments. but do you not find even, like, a 3 or 4% yield worthwhile?

>> yeah, you know, it's interesting,s i certainly feel like for those investors and those audience members that are closer to retirement, you're certainly seeking investment-yielding products. and thus far cds and money markets have been attractive. what i'll say also more broadly is that, you know, the fed is poised to lower rates, but we're at 5.2525-5% -- 5.25-5.5%, probably not headed to the zero bound in the fed funds rate. they'll probably stop somewhere around the 3% range, and that means treasury yields will still probably offer you 3-4% -- liz: well, shorter term, the 6-month yielding 5%. same with the 3-month. there are a lot of 5-handles here. >> yes. and we think, you know, as you get through the next year or so, what you want to do is maybe start to extend your duration, move from 3, 6, 12 the months to maybe a little out the curve, 5,

7, 101-year because you're locking in those rates for a longer period of time, and they have the potential for price appreciation as the fed continues to lower rates. so we think that's the interesting ray over the next year or so. and you want to make sure you're doing that as well as quality dividend plays in equities. that is another way to generate very good income and benefit from the if upside as a well. liz: got it. thank you very much, mona. good to see you. and keep up this 5-year treasury yield, folks. it is now down 7 basis points and the 20-year is hitting the lowest yields, the lowest level since february. so we are seeing a pretty i don't want to say violent move to the downside in these treasury yields, but they are tanking at the moment on this belief -- and, basically, on the tone of fed chair jay powell's statement that, you know what? this is what we are going to see. we are probably going to see a september rate cut because inflation has come down, there's been a consistent move to the downside. i get his slight asterisk as we

said at the top of the show. he's a little concerned that inflation the in some areas has remained sticky. sure has, for a long time. but at the moment, it looks like especially with a totally frozen housing market because mortgages are so expensive, we may very well see that rate cut in september. here we go, the federal reserve not the only game in town. facebook parent meta, chip maker qualcomm and arm, the chip designer, a bunch of companies reporting earnings after the bell which is just 16 minutes away. we are going to get you caught up on the big names about to report, show you where they are trading. and big news breaking in the last 40 minutes. bill ackman has withdrawn the ipo of pershing square with usa. his hedge fund that he wanted to the the take as a publicly-traded instrument. charlie gasparino has the details when we come right back. ♪

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liz: big market rally still holding on in many cases. we have to tell you this breaking news, billionaire hedge fund manager bill ackman is pushing back the highly

anticipated public debut of his company, pershing square, which was set to begin trade on the new york stock exchange this week. charlie gasparino is here with the details. charlie. >> you know the dust has not settled on this yet. we're giving you the sort of what's going on right now. we do know for the last couple days it has been kind of bizarre who is buying this, how much is, you know, the initial estimates is that ackman wanted to sell $25 billion of this. then they went down to two billion. and now it is postponed. i give you two sides, give you the ackman side first. if this, this is what i think he is, he is saying. it's, he is trying to do this investment vehicle that's a closed end fund. if you know about closed end mutual funds, a mutual fund almost ipo'd, there is a fix the number of shares for them. you buy the shares. the shares are often priced at a discount, just so you know. it is a technical factor of a

closed end fund. and because of that, a lot of people were saying why should i buy it now? i will buy it after the ipo? you know what i'm saying? if i give you the money beforehand my shares are priced at a discount, maybe it will go up, you know what i'm saying? liz: question. >> if you listen to that, read between the lines of the press release, that is kind of what they're saying because of technical factors people balking it as a closed end fund. they have to go back to figure out the structure of this thing is what they're saying. then there is another side. liz: came out with the statement. while we have received enormous investor interest in pieces, pcus, one question remains would investors be better investingthe after market. so the structure. >> the market is ripe, just everybody, his competitors and they are competitors so keep that in mind. liz: rivals. >> rivals, rivals and

competitors are just, you know, given other explanations number one. i think it is totally mishandled. number two, he wasn't leveling with you, with the investor interests. number three, people don't like the fact that he spent so much time on twitter and you know, they're wondering like what are they getting? are they getting a fund that is going to be managed every day by a guy that spend as lot of time on twitter talking about social issues, which he does. has a whole new persona. he tries to capitalize the newfound persona on twitter, social justice warrior, of the right, not the left, you know, which he has been big on recently. he thought that would drum up shares but it didn't. so those are the two stories and again the dust has not settled here on this story. i can't tell you which is accurate, liz. i don't know. i don't think anybody knows but those are the two narratives going out there. bill ackman, we should point out

has a very good long-term track record generally. liz: very good. he has had some crazy good years. >> he had some, you know, he had some big flops. liz: well they all do. >> he had some really significant flops. yeah, everybody makes mistakes. warren buffett has few flops, right? his were magnified by his out-sized persona. he is what is known as activist investor. when he went after herbalife, he didn't just short herbalife, he said it was the greatest fraud. built up his short position publicly. when it didn't turn out that way the backlash was interesting. that is where we are right now. i will be probably better able to report this story out for you tomorrow because we're going -- this is right now aside from the election, this is the talk of the market like what the hell happened here because he was very public with this. i mean think about it. he went from 25 billion to pull.

i've never seen that before on a deal. liz: yeah, 25 down, and then down to two billion i think -- >> to pull. liz: almost like he was feeling his along very publicly. >> as someone who follows these deals, you generally have these presold. jeffries and city group they know how to pre-sell a deal. what the heck happened here guys? liz: go dig. >> make a few calls. i will go to the gym first then make a few calls. liz: priorities. earnings parade set to role after the bell. this is a big one. just a few minutes we hear from "magnificent seven" member meta along with qualcomm, lam research, western digital and arm holdings, all of them with their hands in the a.i. cookie jar. all are moving higher. qualcomm and lam up 7% a piece.

tomorrow big names here amazon, apple, intel. our next guests are watching all of these reports closely. i want to know if they're buying anything or selling anything ahead of the reports. joining me two chief market strategist, slatestone wealth kenny polcari, art hogan. gentlemen, i want to know if you're buying or selling these names. art, you go first. >> two at the top of our focus list. we're been big supporters of both apple and amazon. so of those two those are two of our favorite names. the one i would be most careful with after the close. semiconductors have a huge bid in arm holdings only been public, earlier this year it came public, up 90% since then. trades close to a 92 multiple on forward earnings. that is really priced for

perfection. if any one of the group reporting tonight could possibly get dinged i think that is the one that is probably the most precarious. liz: kenny, your turn. >> listen i agree with art about apple, not qualcomm, but apple. i'm not so worried about that one. you have to be careful because they priced for perfection. google makes $10 billion in a quarter. one line they focused on flock it down for no reason but it has bounced back. arm holding to art's point it is too new yet. it is down a little bit. it had a correction here. see what they say in earnings, specifically about a.i., because that will really make the decision. in tech like this, when earnings season like this and they have been priced to perfect hundred, i like to hear what the earnings say, give it a day or two before you jump in, because you don't know what kind of reaction you will get. liz: these are expensive. let's pull up microsoft if we can. microsoft reported yesterday. they got punished for one

metric. that was their outlook for -- >> exactly. liz: throwing out baby with the bathwaterrer, falling by just 1% at the moment. it still has a p-e of 30 five, art. don't you have at some point, you have to say so some of these people have you no shame? you're going way too far to the higher end of a p-e ratio. >> the forward multiple got low as 32 in the initial selloff. it is back up around 33, 34. i think microsoft of the original group or "magnificent seven" we're still calling it that, has the early adopter ability to cap taddize on artificial intelligence probably better than anyone else and we're okay with the cap-ex they're spending. that is why you're seeing nvidia pop so much today. liz: kenny, did anything the fed say today, not do today, but will possibly do in september like cut rates have an effect on this particular segment of the markets? >> i think they prepared the market a month ago they would cut rates in september because clearly the market has look, it

is 100% probability in the market that they're going to cut in september. i thought it was very interesting today how he kind of leaned that way, when he was asked cutting rates five weeks before the election, he immediately stopped, look i didn't actually say anything today in terms of where specifically cutting rates in september. he left it vague. so he is sitting on the fence again, but i think the market is now expecting a september rate cut. here is the other thing, somebody asked 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut f they cut 50 basis points in september that will be a hugely negative message to the market. where did that come from all of a sudden? they find reason to have to cut by 50%. liz: yeah. let's pull up arm because tomorrow we have arm ceo rene haas, after he has posted ins. i'm looking at this company here. it has had a boffo year-to-date. it is up 91%. we have jan van eck of the van

eck funds. he launched an ether etf. of course the bitcoin etf. there are so many interesting portions of the market. art, do you have a favorite right now? >> i tell you this what i think is the best part of market across the month of july has been the rotation which i think has got legs to it. i think it is important we're starting to recognize there are 493 other stocks in the s&p 500 we have not been paying attention to. that puts us into healthier place as we head into the second half of this year, in so much we have a broad rally here. i think that continues especially we see yields on the 10-year. looks like the 10-year 4 1/2%. it was less than 4% a month ago. that is indicative of investors not exiting this market rotating out of tech but actually broading out. [closing bell rings] i don't kenny, art, thanks for having you. market rallies after the fed leaves rates unchanged but signals an a september rate cut. we'll see you tomorrow with the arm ceo. ♪.