those companies as you look underneath it at a huge investment that is coming up what we see different, this is a caution i would give as we keep having this talk about the federal reserve. the market and the experts were wrong as interest rates went up constantly saying we're going to have a recession. constantly thinking the economy was going to slow. take that into account as we look at rates coming down. we are not the old economy. we're a service economy now. so turning to those companies, for the most part those companies are not dependent on interest rates. [closing bell rings] liz: makes sense, makes sense. stephen we would love to have you come back. you are a perfect voice for any day. the major averages sell off on this first day of august. tomorrow july jobs report. you can't miss 24 hour. larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow.

economic storm clouds are gathering. stock markets get slammed again. donald trump wants to slash taxes on social security retirees, and, the international olympic committee says nothing while a female boxer gets beaten by a fighter who failed a gender test. we'll talk to florida congressman mike walsh and brian mast in just a few moments but first up our own edward lawrence standing by at the white house with all the latest from today's press briefing. good evening, edward, what is cooking or the report larry it was a prisoner swap. it was a massive undertaking to get the prisoner swap. planes from u.s., germany, norway, poland, russia, all landing on the tarmac in ankara, turkey. that is where the swap took place. germany, russia gets eight people convicted in the u.s., germany, norway, sew spleen yaw, poland.

of the people leaving russia, 12 citizens come back to germany. three come to the u.s. we know about evan gerskovich and paul whelan. they will get a u.s. citizen as well as one u.s. legal permanent citizen, vladimir karamisa will go back to germany with his family. president biden trying to make this a legacy moment for his presidency. that the u.s. worked relentlessly not just to free americans but political prisoners. critics say when you make deals it emboldens them to take more americans. jake sullivan pushed back. >> it is not quite as clear-cut that the evidence actually demonstrates the kind of result that your question speaks to, that a lot more people get taken because we do these exchanges but it is something that we have to pay attention to. it is something makes these decisions by the president not simple decisions, hard decisions. >> reporter: so of the eight russians that went back, one of

them, karakasva. russian assassin a very bad person. es with the linchpin for russian president vladmir putin to make sure they got him to getth deal done. larry: thank you very much, edward lawrence. another big news story the complete crackup of the stock market. this happened just 24 hours after fed head jay powell gave forward guidance of an interest rate cut. our own gerri willis standing by with those details. gerri, lower interest rates supposed to help stocks, what happened? >> reporter: it didn't do it today as stocks sold off as fresh economic data stoked fears of a possible recession. let's look at the clothes, the dow down 495 points, the s&p off 75. the nasdaq off 2.3%, ouch. what was it? the ism manufacturing index, that's a barometer of factory activity in the u.s., slumping to 46 point 8% for july. that is worse than expected and a signal of economic

contraction. meanwhile initial unemployment claims jumped last week to the highest level since august of 2023. now today's uncertainty pushed yields on the 10-year treasury below 4% for the first time since february. traders now see three rate cuts before year's end. and of course all eyes will be on tomorrow's jobs report. larry? larry: thanks very much, gerri willis. folks, economic storm clouds are gathering and that's the subject of tonight's riff ♪. larry: so yes fed head jay powell issued pretty clear forward guidance that the central bank will start cutting its policy rate in september and additional rate cuts might well occur in november and then december. wall street has been whining and panting for these rate cuts for about two years. so what does the stock market do? as gerri willis just reported it got slammed down he specially

the nasdaq lost 3% of its value and dow got whacked hard as well. what is going on here? as i often suggested market bond yields are frequently more important than the fed's target rate. while the fed has done nothing yet, most treasury yields are down 100 basis points in recent months. in other words, markets have been leading the fed. here's another key point, lower market interest rates are surely a welcome development, yes, indeed but the history shows that declining interest rates are also a recession indicator and even though gdp has been growing at sort of semistagnant 2% a bunch of other indicators are flashing much bigger warning signs about the economic outlook. as gerri willis mentioned today, for example, the reliable

manufacturing report from the institute of supply managers registered another deep dive and they have dropped seven out of the last 10 months. meanwhile inside the index under the hood new orders, production, and employment all registered major declines. plus, initial unemployment claims, now working their way up and hitting nearly 250,000 for the most recent week and don't forget, the unemployment rate itself has gone from 3.4% to 4.1% and may be headed still higher in tomorrow's jobs report. meanwhile consumer sentiment has been consistently poor, all manner of hoisting starts and sales have been in recession territory for a while and even the mediocre 2% gdp that has been held aloft by huge injections of government spending so is there a recession in the outlook? well that recession forecast was very wrong in 2023 but at the

moment the data suggests a much greater probability in the next 12 months. yes, interest rates are likely to fall more but be careful what you wish for because that could foreshadow a big economic slump which brings me to election politics and policy. this is no time to raise taxes. joe biden and now kamala harris have both been talking about enormous tax hikes totaling as much as four to five trillion dollars. that would be sheer folly. now here's where donald trump has another major advantage. he is consistently talked about extending all of the trump tax cuts launched in 2017. lately he has added to that by proposing tax-free tips for millions of waitresses, waiters, maitre d's, part-time workers, people in the gig economy,

et cetera, et cetera, and, just yesterday mr. trump proposed to end the social security tax on retirees. take a close look at these proposals. they all reduce the tax on work and employment. also, they reduce the tax on business investment and productivity. instead of spending a fortune on government deficits and borrowing, trump is creating incentives to produce and innovate more. so, as economic storm clouds begin to gather it is mr. trump who has the common sense solution to cut taxes and let people spend and invest more of their own money. once again, advantage trump. and that's the riff. all right? we're going to come back to the economic storm clouds in just a little while. we've got kevin hassett and michael faulkender.

our friend vivek ramaswamy will visit us a bit later after that, but before we get to all of that we'll bring in congressman mike walsh and brian mast from the free state of florida. gentlemen, thank you very, very much. you guys, you can talk about any darn thing you want to talk about but you know i mentioned mr. trump's tax cuts. i just thought yesterday, okay, he went into the lion's den with the convention of black journalists. he faced some you know, pretty strong criticism. thank heavens for harris faulkner, by the way. but i thought he came out the winner and the reason i thought he came out the winner, i guess i will start with my pal brian mast is because he emphasized border, inflation, economy, tax cuts. those are his emphasis, again and again and again. those are his strong suits. that's where the democrat administration has done so badly. he kept doing that. so i think he went into the

lion's den and he came out a winner, brian mast. how did you see it? >> i will just say it the same way you did but in a slightly different way. i agree he came out the winner because he was willingness with a rally or media, somebody else to essentially go where he is not invited. go onto the other turf. go bring message to the places that need to hear his message, know he is delivering, going to deliver the right thing for what people need to get them out of a recession or get more money into their pocket or get dollars lower at the gas pump or grocery store. he is delivering message at the right place, wins all day long. larry: michael watch, it is interesting, mr. trump has demonstrated time and time again strength and toughness. i mean he has got a set of you know whats. shall we say a strong backbone. this is a family show in the afternoon. kamala harris was invited and she is a no show. i was reading in the paper this morning she will not go into that group until sometime in

september, who knows if ever. she has not faced any tough questions at all, michael walsh. how do you read that? >> this is the biden basement strategy 2.0, right? just, you know, hide in plain sight, not take any questions. certainly not do things like president trump has in terms of going to south bronx, going to a african-american church, going to detroit and going to this forum but i do think the country is a bit worse off for it. you know the media loves to hand wring about the partisan divide and why can't we come together and, and have good, tough, policy discussions. they had no intention of having a good tough policy discussion. yesterday that was gotcha journalism. i'm asking for journalist out there to call balls and strikes to your colleagues. the media is contributing to the divide in this country f she wanted to talk about this the

effect of minority opportunity zones on black entrepreneurship. she would talk about historic justice reform as a result of biden's 1994 crime bill. she would talk about trump, only trump who put in place permanent funding for historical black colleges and universities. i think those journalists, minus harris faulkner of course showed their true colors. sadly for the country frankly and sadly for the profession of journalism. larry: even so he got his message. by the way he did mention money put into historically black colleges, and he also mentioned the opportunity zones which was really breakthrough stuff and relying on investment in these minority communities. by the way yes, inner-city black communities, also poor white rural communities as well so he did get that message across. >> that's right. larry: brian mast, mr. trump i think will testify or meet with the fbi today which gives me an opportunity to ask you, do you want to tidy up, do you have any

additional questions about these investigations given what we've heard, what's happened in the house, what's happened in the senate, what's happened in butler, pennsylvania, or what hasn't happened? brian, what are you thinking about today? >> i'm happy to weigh in on it. truth fully representative waltz on the investigative committee what happened in butler, pennsylvania, will give you the best answers no doubt but president trump targeted unfairly across the board. i was happy to see one of those trials taken out of play in for the peers, florida, the documents trial. god happened. thank you for the justice that took place here in fort pierce. look what happened in butler, pennsylvania. i look forward to hearing answers. everything single thing i heard let me to no -- more questions and no answers.

larry: mr. walsh, what you have seen, what is on your mind for the investigations? >> for the secret credit service failures that day but who denied the trump's core protective detail additional resources. who decided that president trump is the same as former president carter or bush. for the fbi today, iran, iran, iran. we're seeing series ever assassination attempts and successful campaigns across the middle east. they have active plotting as we speak, to kill president trump, interfere with the election. the border is wide open. the fbi has given warning of an iranian operative who came through venezuela, who is recruiting assassins to not just go after trump but members of his cabinet. you overlay the fact, they pulled roberts o'brien's former national security advisor's detail. what is the heck going on with a

foreign plot to kill former american officials? what the hell is the fbi doing to stop it. larry: you mentioned the iranian threats, okay, so brian mast, let me come back to that in a moment. i'm very impressed with israel and presumably mossad, their secret intelligence service, i don't know if either of you, brian, i will start with you, i don't know if either of you read any of daniel, the gabriel alone books by daniel silva. fabulous about gabrielle alone is the mythical head of the israeli mossad, he goes out. there is about a dozen books. he goes out and finds anti-israel killers and takes them out. it is wonderful stuff. well as we learned today the mossad presumably put a bomb inside of the house in iran and then the hamas guy finally

showed up two months later and they nailed him. i remember mr. trump, i believe telling one of the taliban mullahs in afghanistan a while back, i've got your phone number and your home address. so in other words, israel is saying none of these people are safe. none of these terrorists are safe. not the guy who was nailed in beirut. not the guy who was nailed in tehran. and i think that's pretty cool and i think that will be a huge deterrent to iran. i don't think iran is as tough as they say they are. in fact all these terrorists are a bunch of cowards brian mast. what do you make of that. i got your home h phone number and home address, you might not wake up tomorrow morning what do you think of that? >> if we have commander-in-chief in place that executes american red lines you have power in place, real deterrents. what you have is a joe biden administration, to quote jenna concerns sy when he was centcom

commander, joe biden take iran off the table literally as a target, that gave aid and comfort to the enemy. no deterrents whatsoever. we need american red lines, the world needs american red lines in order to have deterrents and security. larry: i think the israelis are cool. last one, michael wops, ksm, i was a son of of a bitch. running 9/11. story running he might get a life sentence instead of capital pawn punishment. it a complicated matter but maybe not so complicated, what do you think? >> first i would like to point out that representative mast served in the idf and i want to say publicly thank you to our israeli allies for doing all of our dirty work in keeping us all

free by taking care of business over there, so it doesn't follow us home to the u.s. homeland and we don't have another 9/11 like khalid sheikh mohammed masterminded. at the end of the day the ends is simple and government has typically overcomplicated it. he should have been dead a long time ago. those 9/11 families deserve justice and that he's how justice is done with terrorism, period. larry: brian mast, ksm, capital punishment, is that your view? >> totally agree. well-stated, mr. walz. larry: i appreciate it very much, mr. michael walz, mr. brian blast. thanks for coming on the show. appreciate it. moving along, coming up on "kudlow," we'll get back to these economic storm clouds. we have got kevin has sift and michael faulkender next up. folks you can catch "kudlow" monday through friday at

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larry: economic storm clouds are gathering and donald trump says it is time for tax cuts. got that right. let us keep more of what we earn. joining us kevin hassett, former chair of the council of economic advisors and michael falkander, former assistant treasury secretary, chief economist at afpi. kevin, you know i love the isms of the how many times i tell you, data rolled in and you and i were in the blanche, manufacturing orders, manufacturing isms look terrible, they keep falling seven out of 10 months. >> right. larry: they have basically haven't done anything for a couple of years. other factory orders show the same thing. unemployment claims, weekly unemployment claims are moving back up towards 250. the unemployment rate gone from

3.4 to 4.1. the housing has been in recession for a while. lower interest rates in the marketplace are sometimes coindent to a recession. anyway, storm clouds, kevin hassett, how do you read it? >> question, i definitely see storm clouds and one of the other things i've been looking at is just the correlation of the odds president trump wins in betting markets and what is going on in markets. when the odds of president trump winning go up, equities go up. expected inflation goes down. real interest rates go up which means they expect higher growth when he is elected. one of the things really rattling market the future for donald trump and betting markets has gone from 70% to 50% since joe biden dropped out. you can see the repercussions about that. people are seeing all the socialist, anti-corporate policies might actually happen. that has really been a shock to markets as well. larry: well, okay, i know we have to watch that pay-to-play. it is a little bit fanciful. they move around a lot.

you're not wrong but they move around a lot. it is hard to figure that. like the fed funds futures market which has been wrong for several years. even though we are free market people, no question about that. falkander, how do you see the economy? gdp is coming in the first half of the year 2.1%. it is kind of semistagnant. that has been really shouldered, bolstered by all this government spending. i mean i am concerned about these economic storm clouds. i can't say there is a recession imminently. that forecast was very wrong in 2023 and forecasting brings with it a good deal of humility but i don't basically like what i see? what do you see? , what are you telling your kids there at the university of maryland as you teach them god knows what? >> larry i'm seeing there are two parts to the economy going on. there is the government driven part, as you look at the gdp report that is where growth was located t was in government

spending, it was in health care services and it was in some of the construction coming out of things like the ira. if you look at the rest of the gdp report it was pretty flat, and the same thing we've been seeing in labor markets for a while and again it is in those industries and that is reinforced by the i.s.m. report, that manufacturing continues to be in recession territory, housing has been struggling, so the question really comes down to is there going to be increased government spending that will offset essentially the anemic part of the private sector economy? larry: they're not going to get anything through between now and the election. that's cooked. that's done. no more. it is bad enough -- >> there is a lot of money -- larry: there is stuff in the tunnel. >> a lot of money built up. larry: i get it. i don't know, i think that game may be played out. who knows, you're right, they will go to any lengths, no question about it. if you see a slump coming, whether a recession, a slump or

a major slow down. by the way interest rate markets, not the fed, the rest of the interest rate markets when they fall it is kind of a mixed blessing. could be coincident to a recession or at least a slump. anyway here is mr. trump giving what i think is a very clever proposal yesterday, harrisburg, pa, take a listen, fellows. >> seniors should not pay taxes on social security. and they won't. [applause] they won't. no tax on social security. larry: by the way, kevin, seniors, aka me, you guys can speak for yourselves -- >> i'm getting there. larry: seniors have already, i already paid social security, all those years i paid social security taxes. now, they want me to pay more taxes on my social security benefits and any other moneys that i make, okay? which i think is very bad.

so, what do you make of mr. trump's proposal? >> right. he is noticed something very important which is that the biden inflation has made it so that this has been a big stealth tax increase on retirees. because what they do is, they tax your benefit above 25,000, but the point is just, they don't index that for inflation. so there has been a massive tax increase on seniors. in addition to having to pay more for goods at the grocery store. what president trump is proposing to roll that back. one of the things, mike and i were emailing about this today, if you look at the shortfall in labor supply in the u.s., which is one of the things that's a real threat to the economy. then a lot of its seniors being overtaxed by social security. so this is a potential you could actually really stimulate the economy and help seniors if you cut the social security taxes. so i think president trump is right to just talk about that. it is amazing that president biden and his team just ignored this stealth tax increase on

seniors. larry: this thing, you already paid taxes going in. you will get taxes on the benefits, any other income, falkander. it is a tax on employment. that is what it is. by the way it is a disincentive to work at all as kevin just suggested. if you reindex it. this thing started in 1983, in the reagan social security deal which had its pluses and minuses but they have not changed the threshold in 40 years. it is time to at least, at least, index the threshold for inflation. which would move it way up again and then the volume of payers, taxpayers would go down again, what do you think of that? >> yeah, you know, larry, the tax rate for seniors reentering the workforce is as high as 85%, not only is there a tax on social security benefits, also if you're simultaneous hi working they cut the amount of

benefits, something called a earnings test. when you throw the earnings test, then on top of that the tax rate on social security benefits which as you said has not been indexed to inflation you get tax rates as high as 85% and at a time where we don't have enough workers in this country, assuming that we don't enter into a recession, then, we have an ongoing labor shortage and where are the reductions in workers coming from? as kevin said, it is among the people in their 60s. if we get a lot of them back to working, the higher income taxes they pay in, the deferral of benefits that they would be receiving would offset quite a significant portion of this proposed reduction or elimination of the social security tax on earnings, such that the static costs that many are out in the media talking about is nowhere near accurate. larry: i know. >> so we can get economic growth -- larry: a minimal, i think a decent, if you just reindex for inflation, reindex the thresholds which has not been

done in over 40 years, you look at the incentive effect of reducing the employment tax would pay for itself or darn near close, darn near close. why it is a cool thing. trump is on the right side of this. kevin, if you are worried about recession would you raise questions or cut taxes, simple common sense question? ii will give you -- >> if you're senior go back to work 20 bucks an hour, after inflation charges biden is charging you your 20 bucks turn into 3 bucks an hour that is it why seniors are not going back to work. it really harmed them. we need a tax cut for them, tax cut for the rest of economy. larry: common sense, great wisdom, mike falkander, kevin hassett. we got that right. coming up folks, very bad story, in the olympics a female boxer just got badly beaten by a fighter who failed the gender test. we're going to talk about that with our great friend vivek

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larry: in the woke olympic as female boxer gets badly beaten apparently by a fight they're failed the gender test. a complicated matter but not a happy one. to talk about and other things our great friend, vivek ramaswamy. vivek welcome to the show. this is an intersection -- intersex fighter. you tweeted about it. we knew she was intersex. what does it mean, is there too much confusion about biological males in female sports? i think that is a even bigger question? >> sure. the larry the specifics of this case notwithstanding more details are coming out, there is a broader question. do we believe as a country, at

least in the united states of america, should biological men compete with women in women's sports? i believe the answer to that question is no. president trump believes the answer to that question is no. i think voters deserve the answer from kamala harris. does she believe the answer to that question is yes or no? are you going to find some fringe cases around the edges 100,000 case intersex more complicated? put that to one side. wave seen that happening in track competitions, in swimming competitions across the country, see it at the high school level, the college level, it is an issue for ncaa, where does kamala harris come down on that question? i think running in a presidential election voters deserve to know if there are real journalists out there who are willing to ask hard questions, that is basic question that is fair game for this presidential election. so far we have heard silence. larry: in fact mr. trump has said i will keep men out of women's sports. he is very clear about that. i take it that is your sue also? >> yes. it is very simple.

i don't think men should be showing up in women's locker rooms. i don't think men should be competing in women's sports. reality, larry, what happened, this issue has historically taken the form of is it freedom? about lgbt or trans rights or freedoms. here is my true view own the matter. if you're a grown adult you're free to live your life however you want as long as you're not harming somebody else but that doesn't give you the right to claim a trophy in a woman's sports competition. it doesn't give you the right to change our language or the kind of restroom if it infringes on somebody else's rights. irony in the language of protecting against the tyranny of the majority, what the left claims, what they actually created is the new tyranny of the minority in this country. that is the tyranny that governs. we should acknowledge that. maybe sure everybody is actually free rather than creating this new cultural form of tyranny. larry: as we look more about the particular case in the olympics

boxing, you know, ivy league swimming tournaments, you had the university of pennsylvania, i don't think there was much, that was a biological male in a woman's swimming sport, breaking all kinds of records. that shouldn't have happened. it completely discourages women. where are the women's rights people when it comes to that? >> yeah, absolutely. there is a couple points hire, larry. irony is that title title ix was actually a progressive policy when it was passed, it was important to protect the sanctity of women's sports. now the new progressive argument is eroding the existence of women's sports. this is ironic on a number of level. the very party, the very movement will celebrate the possibility of a first woman president also refuses to define what exactly is a woman. so you can't believe in both of these things at the same time. i could go on these contradictions for a long time. give you another one. the same lgbtq movement that said the sex of the person

you're attracted to at birth, attracted hard-wired at birth is now the same one that says your own gender or sex is fluid over the course of your lifetime. those two things can't make sense at the same time. so i think we have to apply principles of reason, logic and actual science. got to respect people. you're free to live your life how you want, but you're not free to hurt somebody else in the process. that is at issue here. larry: maybe a little common sense too. let's go to messaging. mr. trump in the lion's den yesterday with the black journalist convention. i want to get your take, get your take on this tape. here it comes. >> inflation is absolutely destroying our middle class, our working class and if you just take a look at a lot of things they don't include like interest rates, interest rates went from 2.4% to 10% and you can't get the money. people can't buy houses. they no longer have the american dream. young people, young black people, they don't have the

american dream anymore. larry: so, vivek you heard him. he went to the lion's den. i thought he came out a big winner. he was completely on message. he just kept bringing it back, inflation, open borders, damaging blacks and hispanic working folks, so forth, so on. i know he had to pivot. he has a new opponent now but the fact is i think he is pivoting. what do you think? >> so, look, here what i think. i think it was courageous president trump running for president of the united states, not the republican party, to show up in a roomful of people who disagreed with him. i would like to see kamala harris do the same thing that hasn't happened yet. that is actual courage. we live in a media distills what the american people see. they didn't see what happened in the room. they see the media distillation of it. they went on a tirade against joe biden. the credibility we're

even-handed. we went after joe biden. we were critical of him. that with be a objective swapping him out. that is giving arbitrate firm artificial credibility to the mainstream media, propping up kamala harris as the crown prince, princess of the presidency. this is how we'll win this rate. it is not focusing on any individual candidate. we have never been running against a candidate. we're running against a machine. the way we win the election by focusing our vision for the future of the united states of america. whether kamala won it by a coup or not. that is not landing with voters. voters don't care about the past. voters care about the future what we'll deliver for them. what president trump will deliver as next president. if we focus on that we win the election. if we don't we'll lose the election. i think we can still winly a landslide, larry that is

possible focus on our own vision. that is something kamala harris is not doing, and that is actually wide epfor us to seize as our path to victory. larry: think mr. trump is basically on message. people want to nitpick him, pick up on stuff that he says. he says what he says. i've known him a long time. he says what he says. his messaging yesterday is very braver he wouldn't take no for an answer. open borders inflation, economy, damaging real wages of working folks of any color for that matter. i thought it was really quite interesting. vivek ramaswamy, we always love having you. thanks for coming back on the show. see you soon. folks coming up, here is the title, hard-hitting "national review." kamala's sociopathic dishonesty on the border, from "the national review." from the editor of "the national review," my great friend rich lowery. we have byron york thrown in as well. all that when "kudlow" returns.

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correspondent for "the washington examiner" and fox news contributor. sociopathic dishonesty, if that not were great, you quote patton. got a lot of gall to criticize donald trump on the border. >> we've been around the brock a couple times, larry. nothing really surprises you as much. when i heard the line at the the atlanta rally, talked the talk but din walk the walk. millions and millions of illegal immigrants in the country, strained resources in every big city in america, she is saying she is tougher on donald trump? where is the fact check? where is the big headlines, kamala harris falsely claims to have good record with illegal immigration. she is getting away with everything, anything at this moment. one reason i think she can make

this thing get traction. larry: it will, maybe it gets traction. i don't think it will get traction. byron york i will ask you if it gets traction, we looked at these numbers, even now, the new biden plan which was an executive order which trump said for four years you should have done that, he wouldn't do it, he finally did it, but, but, but, they're channeling people into the key depots, chan melling the numbers, numbers 1.5 million a year. here is the deal, trump's last three years, we looked at this, 2018, 2019, 2020, illegal -- less than 1000 each year, in fact a couple of the years it was only 400. i'm sorry, less than a million. a couple years was only 400,000. one year it was a little higher than that. in other words, nothing near 10 or 11 million. nothing near a million 1/2. so once again, if you actually look at the data, i don't know

what she is talking about. >> well, you know one of the things she and president biden as well do to claim their alleged toughness on the border, say they supported this bill, this big bipartisan bill that would solve our border problems that fell apart this year. so you have to think to yourself, she really favored a virtually open border in '21, '22, '23 and somehow in the election year of 2024 she supported a bill she said would solve the problem and that republicans opposed and furthermore president biden who said he had no executive authority to tackle this problem found that he actually did and it helped. somehow this is happening in the last few months before the election. so it is really hard to believe anything of what she says on the border. on the traction part, i would say, look at that atlanta rally she had. clearly that's a ton of people who were not going to be

enthusiastic about joe biden, and they are enthusiastic about kamala harris. so i think we have to wait for more polling to see how people are really reacting but that's a real clue right there. obviously she is going to excite more democrats more than biden did. larry: it was a low bar but your point is well-taken. here is jd vance on the border, cochise county, arizona, yesterday i believe. take a listen, fellows. >> stop deportations on day one, they stopped construction of the border wall. if people can come into this country and they know they never will be effectively deported you have an open border. that is what kamala harris promised, what kamala harris did, and donald trump and i promise to do exactly the opposite. larry: to your point, rich, in the article, i'm just reading this, a lot of illegals have been redirected into parole programs. that is what i was referring to. they're channeled into places

like san diego and so on n a way the numbers are actually bigger. >> you have illegal crossings which are down because mexico has did not more, but still at crisis levels. a lot of illegals are being laundered into superficially legal programs and paroled released into the united states. it's a crisis. jd vance is making exactly the right point. they have to hammer it, hammer it all the way to election day. you talked about this, larry, you say this all the time issues based campaign. she out there on 10 or 12 things she tried to shift on. this republican campaign 40 years. hammer someone who goes too far left, when they disavow, hammer them as a phony. they need to do both. larry: i think good messaging will win. i think byron relies too much on these polls. jd vance has rediscovered supply side. it is too long. jd is moving to the supply side. he is cutting taxes now. >> you convinced me.

larry: next time we'll do it. rich lowery, thank you very much. byron york, appreciate w libertyl customizes car insurance so you only pay for what you need. itat w. ♪how doug and limu roll, yeah!♪ ♪ ♪you know you got to live it,♪ ♪ ♪if you want to win...♪ [bump] time out! only pay for what you need. ♪liberty, liberty,♪ ♪liberty, liberty.♪ [♪] can a personal loan unlock your ambitions? oh yeah. consolidate bad debt and save money for your next goal. take a swing at your kitchen reno...

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economic storm clouds and the clouds are out there, no tips and stop taxing and in phaco, you don't want to tax hike at all and cut taxes right now and advantage trump and by the way, advantage liz macdonald within general principals. principals