ome. larry: hello, folks. welcome to kudlow, i'm l arry kudlow. economy storm clouds are

gathering, stock markets get slammed again. donald trump wants to slash taxes on social security retirees and the international olympic committee says nothing while a female boxer gets beaten by a fighter who failed the gender test. our own edward lawrence is standing by at white house with the latest from today's press briefing. reporter: it is the press, prisoner swap a massive under taking planes from u.s., germany, norway, poland and russia landing on the airport -- tarmac in turkey, it took place 16 people left russia to u.s., and germany, russia gets a8 people convicted of of people leaving russia 12 of germany citizens to

germany 3 to u.s. we know about of gershkovich and paul whelan. and president biden tying to make it a legacy moment for his presidency saying that u.s. worked to not just free americans but other political prisoners, critics say when you make deals like this, it emboldens dictators to take more americans. >> it is not quite as clear cut thats everi it demonstrates the results. it something to pay attention to and makes the decisions by the president not simple, they are hard decisions. reporter: of the 8 russians they want back one of them, a russian assassin a very

bad person. he was the linchpin for president vladimir putin to make sure they got him to get the deal done. larry: thank you edward. a big news story. crack up of stock market. this happens 24 hours after fed head j. powell gave forward guidance of an interest cut, gerri willis standing by. reporter: it d didn't help, stocks selling identify fresh economic data spoked fears of a possible resolution, look at -- recession. taking a look at the numbers. ouch, what was it? the ismrv sm manufacturing index to 46. 8% in july, worse than expected. and signal of economic

contraction. initial unemployment claims jumped last week to highest level since august of 2023. today's uncertainty pushed yields on 10-year treasury below 4% for the first time since february. traders now see three rate cuts before year's end. and all eyes will be on tomorrow's jobs report. larry. larry: all right. thank you very much gerri willis. >> folks, economic storm clouds are gathering, that is the sfn subject of the riff. >> so, yesterday fed head j. powell issued forward guidance that central bank will start cutting policy rate in september and additional rate cuts might occur in november and then december. wall street has been whining and panting for the cuts for about two years. what does stock market do, it got slammed down. the high-tech nazdaq lost

almost 3% of the value, s&p 500 and dow got whacked hard. so what is going on? well, as i have suggested, market bond yields are more important than fed's target rate. the fed has done nothing yet most treasury yields down about a hundred basis points in recent months. markets have been leading the fed. here is a these point, lower market interests are a welcome development, but the history shows that declining interest rates are also a recession indicator, the gdps had been growing at 2%, a bunch of other indicators of flashing bigger warning signs about the economic outlook. as gerri willis mentioned today for example the reliable manufacturing report from the institute of

supply managers registered another deep dive, they dropped 7 out of last 10 months, meanwhile in the index under the hood, new orders production, and employment all registered major declined and initial unemployment claims hitting nearly 250 thousand for most recent week, and un. and unemployment rate has gone from 3.4% to 4.1% may be headed higher tomorrow in the jobs report, consumer sentiment has been poor, all manner of housing starts and sales have been in recession territory, and mediocre 2% gdp has been held alo aloft by huge injection of government spinning is there a recession in outlook that recession forecast was wrong in 2023 but at the moment,

data suggests a great are probability in the next 12 months. yes, interest rates are likely to fall more. but beware full what you wish for that could f foreshadowoy a big economic slump that brings me to election politics and policy, this snow -- this is no time to raise taxes, joe biden and kamala harris have been talking about huge tax hikes. totally as much as 4 to 5 trillion dollars. that would be sheer folly. here is where c donald trump has advantage, talking about -- lately, he has added to, that by proposing tax free tips, for millions of waitresses and wait ires and mater d's and

yesterday. mr. trump proposed to end the social security tax on retirees. take a look at the proposals. they reduce tax on work and e employment and reduce tactax on, investment in productivity, instead of spending a fortune, trump is correct incentives to produce and innovate more. as economy storm clouds begin to gather, it is mr. trump who has common sense solution to cut the taxes. and let people spend and invest more of their own money. once again, advantage, trump. that is the riff. all right. we'll come back to the economic storm cloud in a while. but we have kevin hassett and michael faulkender and vivek ramaswamy will visit

us later. but before that. we'll bring in congressman mike waltz and brian mast from free state of florida, thank you very much, talk about whatever you you want. i mentioned mr. trump's tax cuts, i thought yesterday, okay, he went t to the lion's den with convention of black journalists, faced strong criticism, thank heavens for harris faulkner, i thought he came out the winner, i thought so, i'll start with my pal brian mast, is because, he emphasized border, inflation, economy attacks cuts. -- tax cuts. those are his strong suits, that is where the democratic administration has done so badly, he kept doing that, i think he went in and came

out a winner brian mast, how about you? >> i'll say, the same way you saw it but different. i agree he came out the winner, because he has a willingness whether with a rally or media or someone else to go where he is not invited to bring message to places that need to hear his message, and know he will deliver the right thing for what people need, to get them out of a recession or in their pockets or dollar lower in gas pump and grocery store, wins all day. larry: i know michael waltz, interesting, mr. trump has demonstrated time again, strength and toughness. he has a sit of you know whats, a strong backbone. a family show in the afternoon. kamala harris was invited but she was a no-show, i read in paper she is not going to that group until in september. who knows when if ever, she

has not faced any tough questions at all. how did you read that? >> that is the biden basement strategy 2.0. just hide in plain sight don't take questions and don't do things leak president trump has in terms of going to south of bronx to african-american church to detroit and going to this forum. i think that country is a bit worse off for it. you know, the media loves the handwringing about partisan divide and why can't we come together, and have good tough policy discussions. they had no intention of having a good tough policy discussion yesterday this was gotcha journalism i'm calling over journalist out there to call balls and strikes on your own colleague, the media is contributing to divide, if he really wanted to talk about it, she would talk

about affect of entrepreneur jones, and -- she would talk about trump, only trump who put in place permanent funding for historically black colleges and universities, i think those journalists minus harris faulkner, showed their true colors, sadly for the country and profession of journalism. larry: he did mention the colleges and opportunity zones and relying on investment. yes, inner-city, block community but also poor white rural communities, he did get that message across. brian mast, mr. trump will meet with fbi today that will give me an opportunity to ask you do you want to tidy up do you have any

additional questions about the investigations given what we heard happened in howthouse and senate and butler, pennsylvania or what has not happened. brian what do you think about today? >> i am happy to weigh in representative waltz on inves investive committee, will give you best answers president trump targeted unfairly across board, i was happy to see one of those trials taken out of play, and fort pierce, florida, the document trial. thank god that happened. you know you look at what is happening with butler, pennsylvania, to mr. waltz, i look forward to hearing answers every thing i heard led me to more questions and no answers. larry: mr. waltz, what are you thinking about now, you have seen what you have seen, what is on your mind.

>> well first secret service it is not only failure that day, but who did denied trump's core protective detail, additional resources, what decided that former president trump was like former president trump jimmy carter or w. bush, he is not the seem and needed additional resources, but for fbi today, iran iran. we're seeing a series of assassination attempts, and successful campaigns across the mid east middle east. they havablive plotting as we speak to kill president trump, to interfere with election, border is wide open, fbi has given warning of a iranian operative that came through venezuela and recruiting as aoork as assassins to go after trump and members of his cabinet. they -- what is going on with former -- with a foreign plot to kill former

american officials, what the hell is fbi doing to stop it. larry: you know you mentioned the iranian threats, okay. so brian mast, back to that for a moment, i am impressed with israel and presumably secret intelligence service there. i don't know if either of you, read any of the daniel -- gabriel alone books by daniel s silva. mythical head of israeli mossad he goes out and fines anti-israel killers and takes them out, we learn today that the most mossad prprepresume put a

house in iran, and he showed up two months later they nailed him, i remember mr. trump telling one of taliban mullahs in afghanistan a while back, i got your phone number and home address. israel is saying none of these people are safe announce of the terrorists are safe, not the guy nailed in beirut or in tehran. and i think that is pretty cool. i think that is going to be a huge deterrent to iran, i don't think that iran is tough as they say, all these terrorists are a bunch of cowards brian mast, what do you make. i got your phone number and home address, you may not wake up tomorrow morning, what do you think. >> if we have a commander in chief in place that executes american red lines then you have a real power at play, what you have in place right now is a joe biden administration, and to quote general mackenzie, he was centcom commander, joe biden

took, or iran off of the table as a target we need american red lines, the world needs american red lines, to have deterrents and security. larry: i think that israelis are cool, michael waltz, khalid sheikh mohammed, i'm -- the son of a bitch, he was mastermind of 9/11. everyone know, that storied in "new york post," maybe there is a plea deal that will give him life instead of capital punishment. where do you come out on that? there are two others with him, a complicate matter, but maybe not so complicated. >> well, first, i just like to point point out represrepresentative mast suffered in idf, thank you to israeli allies for

doing our dirty work and keeping us free taking care of us there. and we don't have another 9/11 here like khalid sheikh mohammed matter minded at the -- masterminded. at the end of the day answer is simple government has over complicated it he should have done dead a long time ago the 9/11 family deserve justice that is how justice is done with terrorism, period. larry: brian mast khalid sheikh mohammed t capitol punishment. >> i agree. >> i appreciate it very much. we appreciate you see you soon. >> moving along. coming on kudlow, we'll get back to the economic storm clouds, we have kevin hassett, and michael fa faulkender next up. you can catch kudlow monday through friday 4 p.m. on fabulous fox business. if you can't catch us at 4,

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larry: economic storm clouds are gathers, d donald trump said it's time for tax cuts. joining me now kevin hassett. and michael faulkender. former trade secretary now, chief economist. kevin you know i love the ism's, how many times have i told you. they are reliable. and the manufacturing -- factory orders, and they look terrible they keep falling 7 out of 10 months, they have not done anything for a couple of years, other factory orders showing the same. unemployment claims weekly claims of moving to 250, unemployment rate is from 3.4 to 4.1, housing has

opinion in -- been in arit recession for a while, storm clouds, how do you read it kevin hassett. >> i see storm clouds another thing that i have looked at is the correlation of the odds that president trump wins in betting markets what is happening in market, when odds of trump winning go up equity go up, expectedtion gs down, real interest rates go up, they are expecting higher growth. and one thing that real rattling markets future for donald trump in betting market from 70% to 50% since joe biden dropped out. you can see repercussions in the markets, people see socialist anticorporate policies might happen, a shock to markets. >> well okay we have to watch the pay-to-play, it is fanciful, they move a lot.

they move a lot. you are not wrong. like the fed funds future market that has been wrong for years, we're a free market people. takennfaulkender how did you see t the economy. it has been semi stagnant but it has been bolstered by the economic spending. that forecast was very wrong in 2023. and forecasting brings a good deal of humility, buty don't like what i see, what you telling your kids at university of maryland as you teach them god knows what. >> well larry, i'm seeing there is two part to the economy going on. there is government driven part, if you look at gdp report that is really where the growth waslow located in government spending and

health care services and construction that was coming out of things like the ira. but if you look at rest of gdp report activity flat. and the same thing that we've seen in labor markets, it is in the industries that is justry enforced by the ism report. that manufacturing continues to be in recession territory, housing has been struggling, the question really comes down to is there going to be increase government spending that will offset the anemic part of the private sector of the economy. larry: they are not getting anything through between now and election? that is cooked that done. no more. it is bad enough. >> no but -- -- there is a lot y built up. larry: stuff in the tunnel. i get it. i don't know, i think that game may be played out whoevers you are right, they will go to any ledges. so if you see a slump coming whether a recession or slump or slowdown, interest rate

markets, by the way not fed but the rest of the interest rate markets, they fall, it is a mixed blessing. anyway, here is mr. trump giving what i think is a very clever proposal yesterday harrisburg, pa. >> seniors should not pay taxes on social security. they won't. they won't. no tax on social security. larry: by the way kevin, seniors, aka, me, y you can speak for yourselves. >> i'm getting there. larry: eniors have already -- i already paid all those years that i paid social security taxes now they want me to may more taxes on my social security benefits and any other moneys that i make. i think that very bad.

what do you make of that proposal? >> he noticed something important, that the biden inflation has made it so there has been a big stealth tax increase on retirees, they t tax your benefit above 25 thousand but point is just that they don't index that for inflation, there has been a massive tax increase on seniors, in addition to paying more are in goods at grocery store. and what trump is proposing to roll that back. and one thing that mike and i e-mailed about today, is that if you look at the shortfall in labor supply in u.s., one thing that is a threat to economy, a lot seniors who are over taxed by social security, there is a potential you could really stimulate the economy and help seniors if you cut the social security tax, i think that president trump is right to talk about that, amazing president biden and

his team ignored steel tax increase on seniors. larry: you already pay tax going in you get tacked -- taxed again. you look at a tack on employment. that is what it is. by the way, a disincentive to work. as kevin suggested. if you reindex it, it started in 1983, in reagan social security deal, it had its pluses and minuses but they have not changed threshold in 40 years i'm to at least, index the threshold for inflation that would move it way up gain and volume of payer taxpayers would go down again. >> you know, the tax rate on for s s seniors reentering workforce is 85%, if you are simultaneously working they cut amount of

benefits, you throw earnings test on top of that tax rate on social security benefits. you get tax rates as high at 85%, a at the time where we don't have enough workers here. assuming we don't enter into a recession, then we have an on going labor shortage, and where are the reductions and workers coming from, it among the people in their 60s if we could get a lot back to working, the higher income taxes they pay in deferral of benefits they would receive, would offset quite a significant portion of the proposed a reduction or irk elimination of social security tax on earnings, such that the static cost that many are out of media talking about is nowhere mere accurate. larry: i know. >> we can get economic -- >> i think, decent -- if you just reindex for inflation the thresh holds, then you

look at the incentive affect of reducing the employment tax, that would pay for itself or near close, that is why it is cool. >> close. larry: trump is on the right side. kevin, if you are worried about a recession would you raraise taxes or cut taxes. >> you would cut them but emphasize what mike said if are a senior you go back to work you make $20 an hour after inflation tacks that biden is charges you that is dolle. >. >> $le $3. >> thank you so much we got that right, coming up. very bad story, in the olympics, ay female boxer

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larry: in woke woke olympics a female boxer gets badly beaten by a fighter who failed gender test, joining us now to talk about it and other things great friend vivek ramaswamy. welcome back. so this is an inte an intersex fighter who pummeled this woman. and not clear i don't know you tweeted about it and took a look at it, we knew she was interex. what is meaning of this, and is there too much confusion about biological males in female sports? that is the bigger question. >> sure, this specifics of this case notwithstanding more details are coming, a broader question. do we believe as a country,

in united states of america, should biological men compete with women in women's sports. i believe it is no. president trump believes it is no. i just think that voters deserve answer from kamala harris does she believe that is yes or no? are you finding a fringe case in the edge of one in 100 thousand case of someone intersex more complicated put that aside, basic question that we've seen in track and swimming, across this country in my school and college levels, it an issue for ncaa, where does kamala harris come down on that. i think in running in presidential election, voters deserve to know if there are real journalists out there who are willing to ask her hard questions that is a basic question that is fair game for the presidential election, we heard silence. larry: mr. trump has said i will keep men out of women's sports, he has been clear about that, i take it to be your view. >> yes, it very simple, i

don't think that men should be showing up in women's locker rooms or competing in women's sports, what happened is issue has taken form of is freedom, about lgbtq or transrights or freedom. here is my view, if you are a gr grown adult you can live our life however you want as long as you are not harming someone else that does not give you right to claim a trophy in a women's sports competition. it does not give you right to change our language, or kind of restroom you use if it infringes on someone else's rights, iro iron on in language of protects majority they created a new tyranny of minority. that is the tyranny that gagoverns and we should acknowledge that and make sure everyone is free. larry: as we 11 learn more about this case in olympics, boxing, this is no

question, ivy league swimming tournaments you had university of pennsylvania, i don't think there was much -- was a biological male in a woman's swimming sport breaking records, that should have never happened it it is o -- discouragers womens, where are women's rights people with that? >> absolutely. there are a couple points, irony is that title ix, was a progressive policy back when it was passed, saying it was important to protect santee of women's sports -- now what you have new progressive argument is eroding exist answer of women's sports, this is ironic. the very party and movement to celebrate possibility of first woman president also refusing to define what is a woman. you can't believe in both of these things at same time, i could go these for a long time same lgbtq movement that said sex of 57

person you are attracted to is hard wired at birth your gender or sex is fluid over the course of our lifetime, they can't make sense at right time. we have to apply science and respect people, youy free to live your life but not hurt someone else in process. larry: maybe common sense. let's go to m messaging. >> the inflation is destroying our middle class or working class if you look at a lot of things they don't include interest rates they went 2.4% to 10%, you can't get money, people can't buy houses, they no longer have american dream, young people, young black people, they don't have the american dream any more.

larry: so, vivek, you heard him, i thought he came out a big winner, he of message. -- he was on message, he kept bringing it back inflation, open borders, damaging black and hispanic working folks, he had to pivot with a new opponent now but i think he is pivoting what do you think? >> so look, i think he was courage ous courageous for president running for president of united states to show up in a roomful of people who disagreed with him, i would like to see kamala harris do the same thing, that is courage, we live in a system where media distills when american see, most at any time see what happened they see media d distillation of it, they have bought themselves on fake credibility, credibility they are not claiming is

ecoecoeis -- equal. that is given artificial credible to mainstream media that is doing nothing other than propping up kamala as favored crown princess. here is how we'll win this race, it is not by focusing on any other individual candidate. we're not running against a candidate we're running against a machine away we're going to win this election focus on our vision for future of the united states of america, about kamala harris won by a coop or not. it is the landing with voters, they don't care about the past, they care about future and what we'll deliver for them and what president trump will deliver for them as next president. if we focus on that we win this election, if we don't we lose this election. i am rooting for not just a win but a win by a landslide, i believe that still possible if we focus on offering our own vision

something that kamala harris is not doing and wide open for us to seize, as our path to victory. larry: i think mr. trump is so message, people always want to nit pick him and pick up stuff, he says what he says. i have known him a long time, his messages yes was brave, he would not take no for answer, he kept going forward, open borders and inflation, economy. damaging real wages of working folks. of any color for that matter. i thought activity quite interesting. vivek ramaswamy we love having owrk thank you. >> see you soon. >> all right, coming up, title, hard hitting national review, kamala harris' sociopathic dishonesty on the border from the editor of national review, rich lowry and byron york in there too. all that when kudlow returns. each planning their fute through the chase mobile app.

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for washington examiner, welcome to you. rich lowry, sociopathic dishonesty you quote patton, george c scott, she has a lot of you know what to say, a lot of gall to criticize president trump on border. >> we have been around block a couple times, when i heard her line at that atlanta rally saying that trump talked talk but didn't walk the walk he brought apprehension and encounters to down to almost zero, they tore it up. she says she is tougher than donald trump? you know where are the fact checks? the big headlines, kamala harris falsely claims have to a good record to illegal immigration, she is getting away with everything and anything at this moment, i

think maybe she thinks she can make it get traction. larry: i don't think it will. i want to quote one thing we look at numbers, so, even now, you know the new biden plan, an executive order which trump said for 4 years you -- but, they are channeling people to key depots, cutting back on the numbers, but the numbers, coming out to about 1.5 million a year. trump's last three years, 18, 19 and '20, illegal less than a thousand each year. the couple of years was 400. less than a million, a couple years was 400 thousand. i think one year higher. no -- nothing near 10 or 11 million. and nothing near a million and a half, once again, if you look at the data, i don't know what she is

talking about. >> well, you know one thing that she and president biden has well do to claim their alleged toughness on the border is say they supported this bill, that big bipartisan bill that would solve the border problem that fell apart this year, you have to think to yourself, she favored a virtually open border in 2020, 21, 22 and 23, and somehow, in the election year of 2024, she supported a bill that she says would solve the problem and that republicans opposed it further more president biden who said she had no executive order to tackle it found he it economist authority, somehow this is happening in last few months before the election, it is really hard to believe anything of what she says on border. on traction part, say look at that atlanta rally she had, that is a ton of people who were not goi wi

going to be enthusiastic about joe biden they are about kamala harris, we have to wait for more polling to see how people react, that is a real clue, she is excite more democrats, more, than biden did. larry: it was a low bar, are your point is well taken. here is jd vance on the border. cochise county, arizona yesterday, i believe. >> stop deportations on day one. they stopped construction of the border wall, if people come in they know they will never be deported have an open border that is what kamala harris promised that is what kamala harris did, and donald trump and i promise to do the opposite. >> making the right case, to your point in article, i am reading, a lot of the illegals have been redirected into parole programs that is what i referred to channeled to places like san diego and so

forth. in a way numbers are bigger than -- >> you have illegal crossings they are down because m mexico has done more, they are still crisis levels but a lot of laundered to superficially illegal programs and paroled and released, a crisis jd vance is makes the right point they have to hamper to election day -- hammer it into election day. she is way out there on 10 or 12 things she is tried to shift othis is a republican campaign, you have seen for 40 years, hammer someone gone to far left, when they disavow it hammer them as a phony. >> that is right. i think that good messaging will win, i think byron, relies to the polls, here is -- k can we put up jd vance rediscovered supply side? it is too long. all right. jd vance -- moving to the supply side. cutting taxes now. >> next time.

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