>> i love you. stuart: what have you got? ashley: i'm not going to mess with the genius. i love you. >> i think it is this is neil. i would say this is adam. lauren: i'm going with number 4, merry christmas. stuart: i'm going with nist the patient this is neil. why would they put that? almost 32 years ago on december 3, 1992, neil pappworth sent a text message to his friend richard jarvis which it wasn't second from a phone, it was sent from a computer. thanks for being on the show. coast to coast starts now.

neil: if people were texting today it would sound like this. what the heck is going on? we have a major cell up across the board and seems like overnight we have gone from worrying about inflation to something much worse, recession. they are using the word. that is why we see, bonds are the big draw and nothing comes close. and could translate around 6.4, could be positive news. mortgage rates are coming down for refinancing and mortgages in general. people jump to that but across the dow jones industrial, we have selloffs going on but not as steep, we flirted with a thousand point decline. bottom line, the sentiment has

changed markedly anticipating the federal reserve will be cut in september some are anticipating it might be a different move, a cut before we get to september and then a double cut which would mean half a point cut in rates and similar cuts for the next two meetings of the year. is that an overreaction? we follow this day by day and hour by hour. we have the latest on what susan has discovered. susan: we are in a new phase of the stock market, bad news is bad. used to be bad news was good which meant the federal reserve needed to start loosening on those interest rates. as you see, the nasdaq flirting with a correction and that means down 10% from recent peaks and they are selling big

tech, and industrials. the treasury action has been stunning, 4% from the two and 10 year yield because the market expects the fed to start cutting rates next month and get aggressive. the yields go down when treasury prices go up. the inverse. that because there are hints of a possible recession. investors are buying into government bonds which pushes up the price. amazon stock is having one of its roughest days in a year, down on a weakening us consumer, set to lose $200 billion in one day today. amazon's ceo last night on earnings tells me they are still seeing cautious consumers looking for a deal trading to lower asp which are private

label options when they can because they are usually cheaper. until hitting an 11 year low. worst day in 50 years cutting 15,000 jobs after a dismal forecast. intel failed to keep up and pivot in a mobile and ai era. and we have apple rally after earnings and i beat the essence. and an upgrade super cycle. and we are spending a lot more year, and r and d, $1 trillion that will be spent in ai over the next few years. the big tech names, you are still pocketing some good gains.

after today's jobs report. and goldman sachs in, 25 basis point cuts, and city is going good, 25 basis points and interest rate cuts, 52 end the year, 50 in november and december they call for the fed. stuart: the sentiment is there for cuts. and start them before september. might get a threat to the markets. susan: the forward guidance we are used to when the federal reserve tells us they have put.

and that offset in some panic before an election, and basis point cut by the end of this year. 25 in the middle of november. neil: that might have a dire effect but the reaction of markets to that could be anything but predictable. just to give an idea of the broad-based nature of this. before we got into today. and 3% of the cosby in korea, 4% in australia, 2% move to

europe, it is down one%, the dax in germany down 2%. the cac in france, dow jones industrials, down 3%. in athens down close to 4. the global nature of this. our problem is the world's problem. the pressure is friend and center on the federal reserve. whether the fed finds itself in a supreme court position not wanting to insert itself in an election. whether it liked it or not, the federal reserve inserting itself into this election, not the way it wants. gary, what do you think of that?

the fed is in its own box. >> they put themselves in a pickle. when inflation was at 0%, jay powell watched interest rates skyrocket fall behind the low end. he fell behind on the higher end. amazingly, he sitting at 5.4-5.5% with a twee 10 year yield plunging down to 3. 8%. if they gave me the job to run the fed. i could say i am following the market and taking fed funds down 4.5 immediately. there is politics involved and scare involved. do we do that between meetings. the fact that he has to wait to september 18th, the stock market is going to drive him. if the market stops going down,

is there a black swan event, he will do something in between. he missed the mark again. as i have been saying for a year, as long as the job market stays in shape, economic numbers are not so good, i think we are okay. and has to be taken into a consideration. >> tried -- the issue was, now someone is ganging up on the fed. you got to move the meeting. is this panicked? >> for a long time, the fed couldn't cut in september.

the dual mandate, the labor market rolled over, the fed has to consider cuts. 50 basis points are more aren't interim meeting cuts, nothing but panic, and what is the economic data, if it confirms the recession, the fed doesn't have a choice. if the rest of the data comes in you see a 50 in november. we agree something has changed in the last 48 hours. it a different response in a different direction.

neil: you are a great market historian and we can remember the problem, and and october gets that wrap, the vaguest slides we can remember in october. i could go on and on but the return to the market in august is generally down. where ranking among the months. is this an august outlier? >> we should shut august down right now. all my channel checks for the last couple months. retailers putting 25 to 50%

sales, they do that because they have do. restaurants are doing for dollar meals because they have to. walmart, $600 billion in revenue, we worry about the consumer. there was something afoot and all i keep hearing is the consumer, 70% of the economy. watch the ten year yield. the institutional crowd for what's going on. and going to places, where stocks are going to drop, jay powell better open up his ears very quickly.

when staying at 0, yields were skyrocketing, 30% dump. and he will need to act sooner rather than later. he will act in between. if the market stops and get some defense, you can wait it out until september. neil: he is not really riveted or focused on the market but is in a position where you can't ignore that. >> absolutely and don't hold gary's age against him if you don't hold my use against me. you want to see my biceps? powell whether he likes are not is getting pooled into the market, has to be reactionary

because he was not proactive in getting out of rate increases or decreases. like it or not he is an everyday investor who has to look at the volatility to decide how to act. neil: thank you both. as we were finishing up, the nasdaq has in correction territory a decline of 10% from its highs. it needs fast market conditions. we hit the record in the nasdaq on july 10th, three weeks ago. that is how fast we are in correction territory. others are well into correction territory after hitting all-time highs. some perspective on that, how

the administration is dealing with this. the recovery might be having a few bumps. >> reporter: a shocking jobs report, the fed made a pivot, the jobs report pivoted from not focusing on inflation risk but also on job employment risks. construction adding leisure and hospitality, about government jobs fewer at 17,000. the labor secretary said government hiring has not masked greater weaknesses. >> it was not the steady growth, is the white house worried that jobs are petering out.

>> i don't think it's the right characterization but we continue to make investments. it makes a big difference. >> we did not hear her say bidenomics. average early -- hourly earnings, prices up, wages down, jobs are are down. that is what i asked the fed chairman. >> what discussion was therefore cut today that the f the economy is not overheated.

neil: edward lawrence, very hot today in washington but very heated in the markets to put it mildly. a brilliant woman put some things in perspective. we are getting clashes from austan goolsbee. in that interview he is saying it is not a secret that policymakers expect multiple cuts over the next year and if we stay restricted for too long, we have to look at an employment mandate. >> they probably did, they have a lot of regret but in their little channel, some people are saying i told you so, and the focus has to be, where do they

do in september and the rest of the year and i would say like many of your recent guests, it's a real distress call for the labor market and fed chair powell was clear he doesn't want to see the labor market get worse, and we saw that. neil: and is it possible, and if so, why didn't he sees on that? >> usually the fed chair and members of the white house staff, the council of economic advisers see the employment numbers but they only get that on thursday evening and jay

powell did his press conference wednesday. some of the data the last few days and the june jobs are report starts to flash these warnings but they don't see what we saw, they wouldn't have have that. neil: if they knew that we would only gain 97,000 private sector jobs, would only gain a thousand manufacturing jobs, what do you think they would have said? >> i think they would have done a 25 basis point cut. they were talking about opening the door widely for september cut that would have shifted the balance. i argue differently than your prior guests who keep saying politics politics. if you are the fed chair, jay powell, you want to be the fed

chair who says i achieved a soft landing. that's got to be at the top of his mind more than any political consideration. there is real risk to that. we've triggered a recession indicator and to put a human context, there are 7. 2 million unemployed people in america, up by a million from last summer. most of them are americans without college degrees. i think that is what's going to weigh on these fed members, the human impact of seeing people lose their jobs and they don't want to see more layoffs in the coming months. neil: with that big a move before september? >> i don't think they will do it. it causes panic.

you were right to question people. you are trying to find the balance and we see those fed head honcho's will go to jackson hole, wyoming at the end of august and fed chair powell would give a big speech, that's where you are going to see these speeches in the coming days. they may do more appearances, they will use the words more than actions before september. neil: i always learn a lot. the overall economy indulging that, one thing that -- any move would be interpreted that day. the federal reserve, during a presidential election year, this court was accused of that

in 2000, never liked the association they were in. the federal reserve having the same decision not wanting to insert itself. now feeling pressure that it could be busy cutting rates until the election and more after the election. that is what we are talking about after this.

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neil: fascinating thing to watch in this slowdown across the world is what is going on with oil prices dropping yet again today as reports of global demand are seeing a 6-month low. you think of the craziness in the middle east and potentially expanding war in the middle east but we will discuss in a second, i want to go to fill for in, on what can explain, going in the opposite direction then you think? >> we saw the biggest amount

that we've seen in years because people were getting prepared for the possibility of all-out war in in the middle east, they backed off of that today. interestingly, oil was higher before the jobs report and recession fears kicked in on those geopolitical risk factors but that reversed a report that president biden called prime minister benjamin netanyahu and said i suggest you take the cease-fire to avoid a potential retaliation attack from iran. prices come down dramatically, add in a potential disinflation. neil: sometimes there's a knee-jerk reaction that's different to your point but the only employer i see money going into us treasuries.

very little, does that surprise you? >> we are seeing fear. the fear gauge if you look at the stock hit the highest level since 2020. the interesting thing talking about a slowdown in demand in china and overseas but you haven't seen it in the united states. we had a report from opec that they would keep production cuts in place until the end of the year but supplies are tightening so from an oil market perspective they need a recession to keep prices down. if we get interest rate cuts we go back to focusing on supplies and that could turn the market around the. neil: you are walking encyclopedia.

talk about the volatility index, it'd a level of 20 better than 20. rarely does that, 20. 4, but highest of the year, up 10%. the higher that goes the more fear, people are trading that. it is a big deal over the decade, and interesting read on sentiment. i want to go to dan hoffman, i am looking at this, russia celebrating the return of hostages, and how he is sitting pretty, i see what is happening in israel within an expanding war and you would think that is

the environment for global turbulence. is it reflected in markets? >> not so sure of the oil market was impacted by conflict in the middle east. there's an impending conflict of could be on the horizon, no more redlines in the middle east. they are using increasingly sophisticated violence that runs the risk of a miscalculation. israel took out three key leaders, two leaders of hamas, one from hezbollah. they are seeking to restore deterrence but risks a cycle of escalation. russia could reduce prices to india and china but the world i would argue is facing more critical threats to national

security than ever before and might not be reflected in the markets today but could be in the days and weeks. neil: the iron he is the market ignored these developments dating back to the october 7th attacks. i'm amazed by that. not that it would be another 1973 war but it could have been and still could be to your point and is not reflected in that. i wonder whether we merrily go our own way and ignore what could be unraveling out there. >> maybe we are just eternal optimists. hezbollah, iran, israel, the united states, don't want a wider war but we are facing a major war in europe for the first time since the second world war and that has had significant implications for

the global economy and yet we are dealing with the fact that houthis have caused insurance rates to go up significantly. but the global economy is absorbing those shocks. i wonder if the big shock is on the horizon. neil: in the meantime how the candidates are playing out these crazy markets. occurs for kamala harris, not quite that simple. we can explain after this. thing with just one card. chase freedom unlimited. so, if you're off the racking... ...or crab cracking, you're cashbacking. cashback on flapjacks, baby backs, or tacos at the taco shack. nah, i'm working on my six pack. switch to a king suite- or book a silent retreat. silent retreat? hold up - yeeerp? i can't talk right now, i'm at a silent retreat. cashback on everything you buy with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours.

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neil: if this gains traction, not good news for the party in power in the white house, just the opposite, good news for them. if you are kamala harris, and this is doing to play out. and reacting at the white house. >> as vice president harris reviews the vetting materials that were prepared for her very quickly, president biden is off to our weekend in wilmington but he talked about the stakes. >> have you ask about her running mate? do you, can you give us a hint?

>> president biden: what key qualities should the vice president be looking for? >> president biden: i will let her work that out. >> got trickier politically for harris to claim the biden economic record, the jobs report missed, the market is tanking and president biden says since we took office our economy has created nearly 16 million jobs. inflation declined significantly, donald trump is dialing the line laying in three things he thinks he could do to improve the economy better than vice president harris. >> we will have tremendous energy and lower prices of energy. we are going to do a tariff system. a friend of mine does that. we are not building the big ones in the united states. >> expect the economy to come

into focus ahead of tuesday's announcement and vice president harris will reveal her running mate. that will happen in philadelphia which is the home of one of the short listers, governor josh schapiro, campaign officials insist it's just a coincidence they are doing this in pennsylvania. neil: didn't he cancel the hamptons fundraiser? >> a few short listers canceled their weekend plans. don't know if it is like high school, you sit by the phone in case somebody calls but we will see. neil: i have been there. thank you very much. always room for him. to manchester, i am old enough to remember our freefall and the markets turned into a meltdown so this is not that but for the party in power when something like that happens it

is never good news. if this gains traction tell me how this plays out. >> it is good news for the trump campaign. the past few weeks since harris became the democratic nominee we've seen a burst of energy on the democratic side. we've seen democrats unify at the drop of a hat and harris closed the gap with donald trump, a number of national and swing state polls but talking to republicans and those around trump they ask and says to the economy is going to be a big part of their campaign and their messaging. to define harris on the issue of the southern border, j.d. vance doing a campaign stop, we know historically voters take into consideration the economy

when they go to vote. i expect here something. neil: great stuff. apologize for the tightened time. we want to pass along that there are some winners, rocket mortgage rate has been blasting off, they are expected to tumble following the drop in the 10 year note bond because that is below that. a lot of people interpret that as something that will turn into mortgages of 6.4%. you would think that alone would ignite mortgage activity but even when we got to 6.3%, little activity there. there's a feeling prices are too high. we are in a mexican standoff,

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neil: across the board, everyone getting hammered and they rushed gold or bitcoin. could be short-lived. treasury notes and bonds a safe place, that's typically the place. blue basenase is part of our upcoming special tonight. it is interesting. bitcoin the knee-jerk reaction, stocks have a bad day, equities are not doing well, it's not that simple. >> there's a flight to quality. everyone wants to say bitcoin is the hedge against inflation. i don't think so.

gold is not a great hedge against inflation. everyone knows and trusts in spite of massive deficits the us dollar, to guarantee they will pay the yield on that and yields go down. that's it. that's the safe haven in today's market and maybe one other check stock is apple which is a rider stock to me but i don't know if anyone will buy stocks right here, not prove it whatsoever. neil: does that extend, worse performance since 1982, begin to wonder is this all a little overdone, forward trading at 5 times earnings? lou: we will see value in pockets and small-cap, we saw

rotation pretty aggressively, you earlier in the segment where espousing what's right. let's not panic. let's be calm and composed and look for bargains. it's a matter of how far down does the selloff go. we need to find the near-term bottom. let's see what happens over the weekend. verbal intervention from the fed and other fed presidents talking cuts to calm the market. calm, cool, collected heads always prevail and do better to work around the market and trade, it's a fools errand, sit back and see where we go monday and tuesday. neil: is easy for you, a young guy, to say that. long-term, breakfast on monday for me. >> make it to lunch.

neil: i understand the investment strategy, markets go up. i keep a chart in my office that shows the chart from the very beginning of the market and the dow in the early part of the last century. wars and opec and the like, very jagged and bumpy but the trend is your friend. what is the trend you are looking at. lou: i saw the data and revisited. i've been on your show, the attacks in israel, responding to war and recessions, interesting stat to make you sleep well as an investor, when the fed starts cutting rates, whether or not the economy goes into recession or doesn't is a positive trend for the markets, one year, three years, 5 years out. if we enter a recession,

history shows us the markets will still be up by double digits. if you have a 12 month time horizon, nada monday afternoon lunch horizon, we will be okay. neil: if you give me one day horizons that is safer for me. we will talk about that another time. are you are the best, i appreciate your analysis as always. david asman, very good read of the markets in august. how many times have we gone through august, russian ruble evaluation, panic in latin america, all of that august develop ed. what do we make of others? david: we are hardwired to find patterns in everything that happens. it's just our nature but we are talking the last century with your last guest, most of the last century, most of the 20th century august was the best month for stocks from the time

the dow started around the turn-of-the-century, 1986, the number one month for stock performance was august, that changed in 1986 and it is now the worst month. is there any reason for that? no. all these analysts looked at all the equations that might factor into it, they discovered it is just random. i think this is very easy to explain, the government tried to pump up the economy for the past year because it's an election year, and manufacturing jobs are been on a slide. they increased by 1000 in the month of july. it's this government oriented industrial policy that is failing and we are witnessing how things might change before the election. and the market makes things look better. my own feeling, look at the

market, most car companies getting rid of their divisions, the chips act, 28% in one day, they were screaming and said it was going to be nirvana. neil: the point is the industrial policy of the government didn't help at all. as the task payer, how he feels about spending all that money. neil: we are talking history with you. we have a lot more on this, including the selloff and all the s&p 500, that's is overdone. is it? ♪

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brought my plus-one. jamie? neil: here's how much sentiment has changed given the selloff today and what the federal reserve will do. we expect a rate cut in september to anticipating a big one, have a point cut is the latest betting when they meet again in november which will be the day after the election or two days after the election another quarter point cut and december a quarter point cut. increasing bets that the november meeting could see 1/2 point so that's where we've gone from a tepid response on rates, won and done and suddenly 3 and please save us, jerome powell. taylor briggs and "the big money show" guys right now