that we've already had these two presidents run. we know what the economy is like under joe biden. we know what it was like under trump. i think they can just easily point to the records and here is going to be the touch point. can you actually feel the pain of the people out there? it's connecting with what they're struggling with. i was talking to some families this week where they were talking about having to go to numerous different grocery stores finding the sales at every place and we were talking about middle class families needing extra time to try to be able to make ends meet just with food and so you have to touch that pain. that's something democrats have ignored. i think trump can tap into it. charles: all right, so and folks, even without the politics, ashley i'm sorry i'm out of time but i want to hit one thing and i go back to the earnings report from five below, folks. they got 1,500 stores and 43 states. they have already told you it's a painful thing. now the markets realize it. liz: yeah, i know.

definitely. charles look at the volatility index. at 10:28 eastern time wall street fear index exploded higher by 57% the biggest jump since january of 2021. right now it's up about six or 36% to 25.45 on track for the highest close since march of last year, after what started as a stumble, right? triggered by the weaker than expected july jobs report this morning, and it turned into an outright face plant, as we kickoff the final hour of trade we've got to hit the nasdaq first, because as you see , with this 460 point drop, that puts it firmly in correction territory. it has now fallen more than 10% below its recent high, reached back on july 10 and folks, you've got to stick with us until the closing bell, because while the dow jones industrials is hearing some bones crunch, right? we do have a pretty significant loss here of about 751 points.

it is a lot better than the 989 point beating it took at 11:30 a.m. eastern. same with the s&p which had dropped 144 points at the low, falling through its 50 day moving average. aside from the wide miss in july job creation, you've got intel and amazon that are real problem children leading mega cap tech and much of the market off the cliff. intel investors fleeing the scene. you can see right at the bottom of the dow heat map. those are of course looking at some pretty serious ice crystals here. intel down 27%. double miss on earnings and atrocious forecast for the current quarter. 10% below wall street's consensus estimates. what else can we throw in there? massive layoffs, suspending the dividend, the stock having its worst day since 1974. you saw amazon looking pretty ugly as well. intel now at $21.20. flip it over to panic treasury

buying flight to safety here and that's got bond yields crying uncle. at its low the 10-year yield sank to 3 point 79%. right now it's at 3.80%, but this is a full 40 basis points lower than where it ended last week at the low. two year yield, now at 3.89%. last week, the two-year was at 4.38%, so you are looking at a big move here in the yields. the rivets are popping off pretty much the broader market, except for gold which is hitting a record but this of course after hitting the iceberg. july payroll saw 114,000 jobs added to the economy. way fewer than the 17 5,000 estimate. unemployment rate jumped from 4.1% to 4.3% leaving investors dazed and confused and now asking is the ground under what everybody expected be a soft landing suddenly turning harder and will the federal reserve bring on not just a rate cut,

but a jumbo or super-size rate cut in september? nick timiaros is the "wall street journal" correspondent who understands the fed's thinking better than just about anybody and trader tom haze has been scrutinizing which stocks maybe look like a buy in this sell-off and nick, i'll start with you. three days ago fed funds futures fully expected a september rate cutoff about 25 basis points right, but saw only a 10% odds of a larger 50 basis point easing. look at fed funds futures right now. one ugly jobs report. it sky rockets to near 70% for a 50 basis point cut. what do you think chair powell is mulling right now and is the market way ahead of itself versus what the fed is thinking? >> well, liz, is the market ahead of itself? i mean, probably not, but the market is sort of assuming the current trends continue. the fed doesn't really have to

make up its mind for another six or seven weeks, right? they don't meet for another seven weeks, so i'm sure we'll hear from fed officials a lot over those six or seven weeks, but they don't really have to make up their mind now about whether the first cut will be 25 or 50. that's obviously where the debate is going to be. what i'm hearing today from a lot of analysts is okay you can do 25 at every meeting. there are three meetings left this year, and that's probably locked in now as a base case for the fed. there are a number of people though who have said, you need interest rates to get closer to neutral sooner. you need to be closer to 4% by the end of this year, and so you saw jpmorgan and city bank put out calls this morning for 50 basis point cuts in september and november and another quarter point in december. i don't think you're going to hear fed officials talking about that right now, but the next

meeting is still a ways away, so they will have another jobs report before that meeting. they will have, we'll be able to see a lot more than we can today. liz: uh-huh, june, july, september, november of 2022 you saw jumbo rate hikes, so we know that the fed isn't afraid of making big moves, of 75 basis points even, but the question is now will citi and jpmorgan be right? they are both claiming that september and november, we'll see i guess a 50 basis point cut. tom not only is there no rotation out of mega cap tech and into the russel. the russel is getting absolutely slammed. biggest percentage loser here. what's behind the panic selling there and if there's any money leaving and going into somewhere, where do you think it's going? >> well the markets afraid of two thing, liz. first off is a recession because the rule was triggered today. that's when the unemployment rate, three-month moving average

moves up a half a percent higher than the lowest three-month moving average, 12 months before. that's a mouthful but the markets are worried about a recession. that's why small caps are down and yields are down. the second thing happening is the unwind of the japanese carry trade. the nikkei is down 20% that's a lot more than the nasdaq and that's because the bank of japan has been the global liquidity provider while the west tightened to fight inflation but the fed has not stepped in now the bank of japan is tightening so you have this liquidity dislocation pocket and guess what's happening? it's a big unwinding of the most crowded trades because the liquidity is drying up and the most crowded trade as you know was the magnificent 7 and the second most crowded trade was short the japanese yen, so with yields lower what we're looking at, liz, is dividend payers where the opportunity is right now. liz: opportunity indoor-is up 7%. we do have little bits of green on the screen here. nick, before we go here,

as you're looking at this market action, and specifically the panic that's in the vix. i mean, that's just sort of a one-day situation but it does measure some concern about the markets. do you get the sense that the fed is guided at all by these market spasms? >> one-day move, liz, no, but i think what i'm paying attention to here is if this is sustained, does it change sentiment? if you change sentiment you change businesses, plans, to invest. they slash investment budgets. they decide to fire workers. labor dem demand is clearly wear than months ago so what i would worry about here is what if businesses have been holding on to workers because they work so hard to hire them, you know, you heard about all these shortages after the pandemic so they have been holding on to them and now like a beach ball under the surface of the water, if they just decide at some point to let people go, you know, that beach ball, it jumps up and you have to wonder if that creates

sort of the recession dynamic that the market is worried about here, and this sort of feeds on itself, so i think that's what you have to wonder about right now. liz: and a lot of people will be going into dividend-paying stocks, right, tom? really quickly, can you cough up a couple names here very quickly? paying out dividends so people can wait and kind of hang out there? >> yes, crown castle international, 40,000 cell phone towers, 5.5% dividend yield. baxter international, 3.2% dividend yield and hormel foods bringing you world famous spam at a 3.5% dividend yield while you wait a steady grower. liz: all right nick and tom, thank you very much on a rocking day. we are about 52 minutes before the market closes and while the markets are definitely on red notice, diplomacy with russia is not after the return of american prisoners including

"wall street journal" reporter evan gershkovitz. look at the hugs here, the finance wiz whose had his own run-ins with vladimir putin is here next on what th this historic swap means. the market sell-off is even dragging bats lower after a six-month gain of 11%. the ishares us aerospace and defense etf is pulling back by 3.25%. the "clayman countdown" is coming right back. stay with us. anything could happen by the end of this closing bell.

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liz: stock market breadth. okay that's what we want to talk about right now. it is losing air, according to

factset data, declining volume, stocks going down, totaling 86% of all the shares traded on the new york stock exchange and 78% on the nasdaq. the number of declining stocks on the new york stock exchange totaled 76%. all right, the us dollar, we need to look at that, because know, tom hayes was talking about the yen carry trade here, well it's under strong selling pressure following disappointing jobs data that we talked about at the top of the show, and particularly, that 4.3% unemployment rate. the green back weakening against the yen, the euro, and the pound sterling. the pound sterling is rallying sharply, and the russian ruble interestingly is flat. no bump after russian president vladimir putin used a different kind of currency, american hostages as a means to his end. falsely imprisoned "wall street journal" reporter evan gershkovitz and more than a dozen others were freed in exchange for russian spies held in the us and europe. this all unfolded yesterday in

quite the dramatic fashion. gershkovitz is now, as we understand it at this hour, in san antonio, texas, after arriving to a hero's welcome last night, where he was greeted by president joe biden and of course the gershkovitz parents. watching from afar, one of the few people in the world who was taken on vladimir putin and his band of rogues. sir william browder, ceo of hermitage capital, the author of "red notice" a book about avenging the death of his accountability murdered by putin's thugs after he unearthed massive corruption in russia. putin extracted a convicted assassin, who was being held in germany, along with seven undercover agents by snatching americans in russia and using them as bargaining chips. what does this all tell you? >> well, it's as simple as that. it's maffia style hostages

taking. this is what putin does. he kidnaps people and then he holds them hostage in cells. they call them prisons in russia but none of the people have committed any crimes. evan gershkovitz, his only crime was reporting the news. paul whelan was on trumped up charges and my friend's crime that he was sentenced to 25 years for was calling for democracy in russia, they call that high treason, and so putin creates this pool of bargaining chips and so he then, and he makes life miserable for these people and you can't imagine how bad it is in russian prisons. they really make it terrible for all the people involved, and then, he lets it be known that everybody is having a hard time. we all feel terrible and then he says, and by the way, there's a bunch of guys in your prisons that we want, and the one he wanted most was a guy

named vadeen krasakof, who was a government killer, a true killer, an assassin who putin would dispatch around the world to kill his enemies. he got caught killing an enemy of the russian state in berlin. the german authorities put him in jail for a very long time, and then putin comes out and says okay, we can do a deal. the innocence that we've held hostage we can give you them back in exchange for this guy whose very guilty and it creates a real dilemma because i'm very personally connected to this , because of my dear friend vladimir whose a russian british national sentenced to 25 years and he was dying in prison. they poisoned him twice before he was ever sentenced, and he was dying from all the after effects of the poison and the doctors said he probably had a year left to live and so the west had to make a big decision. do we let these people die in

prison or give into putin's blackmail and unfortunately, you know, you can't let these people die and so we didn't, and i thank god that my friend walked off that plane yesterday. go on. liz: here is sort of a double-edged question here. number one, should anyone, any american or european now take their chances and go to russia. oh, let's go to the kremlin museums and see moscow and red square. how dangerous is that right now, and secondly, could you say that the sanctions are working, not working? >> so first of all, it's a very obvious, there's a very obvious answer to your question which is simply no. you know, russia is a different country than it was when they were hosting the olympics in sochi or the world cup. this is a hostage-taking country and therefore, not only should americans not go to russia. i don't think the american government should allow people to go to russia.

are we busy going on tourist trips to north korea? no. why? because they kidnap people and put them in jail and there was a young man who went out there just on a tourist trip and came back in a coffin. people should not go to russia, and i've been ever since this swap took place, which i advocated for because i wanted to save the life of my friend, i'm now advocating there should be laws in place so that westerners don't become hostages because not only do they put their own lives at risk, but they create these situations which puts society at risk more generally if we have to release criminals and on your second question , i was going to say on the second question -- liz: yes, go ahead. >> go ahead. liz: so trump and biden both handed down sanctions against the russians during their respective terms. donald trump is coming out now saying none of this would have ever happened if he were president.

he had also promised that the minute if he were to become president once again he would have gotten evan gershkovitz and the rest out, paul whelan the former marine. is there one better than another with a better plan when it comes to these types of very difficult and sensitive situations? >> this has nothing to do with trump, has nothing to do with biden but it has to do with putin and i've been involved in all these discussions with hostage negotiations for a very long time. i've been in touch with paul whelan's family and evan gershkovitz's family and all of the other families and paul whelan was in jail during the trump administration. trump didn't get him out, and so i mean, i think it's kind of absurd for him to be throwing these things out there. it has nothing to do with him. it has to do with complex negotiations where one side wants one thing and another side wants another thing and eventually, in this particular case, it involved a number of other country. it involved germany who had

the assassin who putin wanted, and so i think that people, you know, tooting their horns and telling everyone how great they are, that's not how the real-world works. the world works because you've got these complex situations in which people have to negotiate, and here we are. i mean, i'm absolutely thrilled that evan gershkovitz and all these people are out and i think that we now need to be much tougher going forward so that people don't end up in this situation and we don't have to have these negotiations going forward. liz: bill browder, we thank you for speaking with us. we really appreciate it. we know what you've been through, what happened that bans anyone accused of human rights violations from coming into the united states. big move there. we'll see you once again later. thank you. >> thank you. liz: the market sell-off even hitting cryptos at this hour. bitcoin and ethererum sliding in

this sell-off down 3.9% for bitcoin. it's now below at 62, 745, and ether is taking a bigger hit down 5.75% but that's not stopping the self-proclaimed crypto president from singing crypto crazes to fox business, president trump today explaining why he believes digital currencies could be good for the american economy, but charlie gasparino says the democratic 2,024 front runner kamala harris thinks she has a plan to steer crypto voters away from trump's camp. he's going to break that story next. we're coming right back. dow is down 757. the russel getting absolutely crushed down 3.6% or about 80 points. (♪) (♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place.

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>> china's already doing it, and if we don't did it, other countries will do it so we might as well be at the forefront and there are people in crypto that are very very smart people, who do love our country, and they think it's good. who knows maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion, hand them a little crypto check, right? we'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our 35 trillion. it's a massive thing already. did you read where it's bigger than any company in the world already? i mean, if you look at the market, it's bigger than many countries. it's a very big thing.

liz: former president donald trump telling fox business why he supports cryptocurrencies, but vice president kamala harris, his expected rival, may be breaking away from the biden administration stance on the digital assets in a bid to lure crypto voters away from the self-proclaimed crypto president, and right now as we look at bitcoin, it's down about 3.8% to 62, 790. ether down 5.75% to 3,000, which means that all of the bitcoin spot etf's be down, and same with the ether etf. i'm just kind of pulling up some of these. they're looking anywhere down from under 1% to about a full 1% lower. sorry, brad, go ahead. spot bitcoin etf. we've got grayscale down about,

sorry, my cat just jumped up here. sorry. ishares down 1%. we have fiduciary wise origin bitcoin fund also down 1% and as we look at all of this , we are getting another major bank. this is breaking news, coming out of a rate cut call and it is barclays expecting three rate cuts in 2024 and three in 2025. this as mortgage rates, sorry, plunge to the lowest level in more than a year. we've got the 10 year at 3 point 798. that is clearly helping one stock in particular today and it is shares of fintech mortgage lender rocket. they're blasting off folks. the firm said it closed 10% more loans in the quarter compared to a year earlier. so right now, that stocks up 12 and one-third. isn't it nice to see green on the screen for the moment? another bullish factor, yields on the 10 year have obviously

fallen below 4% and right now, we've got the 10 year at 3.79%. now the mortgage rates, they tend to track sort of follow the 10 year yield so maybe we will start to see mortgage rates fall in lockstep with them. green gains for the silver screen, cinemark hitting a 52 week high after the movie chain topped revenue and box office estimates. the company said movies from inside out 2, there was so many good ones, right? no, there were just a few good ones, but that was enough to drive box office performance beyond expectation, right? we had the wolverine movie, deadpool, so cinemark is up 6.5%. don't count out the movie theater experience just yet. and clorox is at the top of the s&p after the bleach maker forecast annual profit above estimates. clorox cited lower costs of manufacturing, logistics, and commodities.

we've got clorox up nearly 7% right now. let's get to charlie gasparino who is talking crypto, and what president trump said, charlie. this is pretty interesting. charlie: yeah, it's very interesting what's going on with crypto in terms of it being front and center as a political debate. i've never thought this. i've discounted it from the beginning. i'm here to admit, i'm wrong. not maybe about the future of crypto but this being a political issue because it apparently is, and it's not just trump getting into the act, and i would suggest everybody tune into fox business.com, check out the latest scoop on this and i'm going to be reporting this. ellie is the axe of the crypto industry, meaning when you talk about the axe, those are the analysts that everybody follow. that's a wall street term. she's the axe as a reporter. everybody follows her, because she breaks a ton of news and her latest is that hads ro khana, the california congressman that's pro-crypto is trying to do another outreach meeting with

crypto industry executivesly to smooth over what is essentially tense relationship between the biden white house. as you know, kamala harris is now the democratic nominee. she was the vice president. she is the vice president now. the biden administration is a relationship with crypto because of the crackdown of gary gensler. here is what we know per ellie's reporting that attendees to this meeting, and i believe it's on monday, will be top crypto executives, people like brad garlinghouse is going to be there but also national economic advise or brainard is going to be there from what we understand, as well as anita dunn. she was at the last meeting, the one that featured mark cuban. mark cuban is as you know a pro crypto tech billionaire entrepreneur, democrat. she's going to be at this one but now, she's essentially part of the harris campaign and joined a super pack that

supports harris so this is very interesting and it is going on on monday. they're looking for some sort of reset with the crypto industry. i doubt that is about to happen. if you read ellie's story on foxbusiness.com, she will go through it. the crypto industry is still very skeptical of kamala harris because of her association with the biden administration and gary gensler. the sec chairman whose announced a crackdown on crypto, so monday is the day from what we understand. check foxbusiness.com for the full story. it's an interesting one and again another good scoop for ellie. liz, back to you. the markets are off their lows, interesting. okay. liz: yeah, dow is now down 667, so more than 300 points off the lows. its been a wild day, charlie. thank you very much. make sure to tune into the fox business special, the crypto campaign. kelly o'grady takes a look at crypto's role in the 2024 presidential election.

folks, what's so interesting is the crypto voice, the lobby, yes, they now have a pack, is getting louder and stronger and more muscular. this is going to air tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern. we hope you take a look at it. all right 26 minutes before the closing bell rings apple avoiding the dog days sell-off but amazon feeling the bite, big time, down 9% as we go to this break. we're unleashing top tech analyst laura martin and shelby mcfadden on the two tech titans heading in opposite directions but which ones look like they're actually going to do well longer term? small caps, not fairing much better. the ishares russel 2000 etf down three and one-third percent but it is down double-digit percentages since its recent high. the "clayman countdown" is coming right back.

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liz: folks, amazon. amazon lists on the s&p, the dow, and the nasdaq 100, so when it goes down, it casts a big shadow over the markets at this hour. it is down about 9.5%. that's not even the worst of the session here. the stock of the e-commerce, cloud, and of course streaming giant is plummeting to the depths of the dow, the s&p, and the nasdaq. actually if it weren't for intel, amazon would have a much bigger bruise. intel is the worst performer on the dow. amazon missed on revenue for the second quarter. the stock is losing nearly $200 billion in market value as amazon ceo andy jasse said here's the reason. consumers are seeking cheaper alternatives. amazon's known for among the cheapest alternatives of just about every product, so, you could interpret that to mean customers are not buying anything. on the flip side, magnificent 7

component apple living up to its hype. shares as we showed you earlier, were doing very nicely. so much so that they are right at the top of the , actually, they are the fifth biggest gainer here on the dow jones industrials up 1.25% beating expectations. did see the worst iphone sales though in a year. investors are patiently awaiting the iphone upgrade cycle, before they drop another one grand on another phone, so do you buy now, do you sell now? joining me to discuss, laura martin and senior analyst shelby mcfadden. laura you've got a buy rating on amazon? let's talk about that. so you're probably scooping up, or advising people to school up shares that are 9% cheaper today. why? >> we are, because what people are missing here, i think, is that 60% of their revenue now is in services, so very high cloud margins and very fast growth rates at cloud and also at

advertising and also at prime video, all of which have like five times higher-margins than the e-commerce business and it's 60% of their sales now so this company's margins hit like 10% which i think is a jasse high margins so they really are expanding their margins and going into the highest, their fastest growing areas are their highest margin areas, which should generate margin expansion, but one dark place as it is with all big tech right now is capital spending on genai with an uncertain return. liz: don't count out amazon. people need it and it's a sticky business model. many people have prime and they just can't let go of it. they are addicted. shelby, you've got to comment on amazon but i really want to get to apple also. >> when we think about amazon just to start with is that i would agree is that we see that value from the consumer. it's something that is a part of everyday lives not just from

the quick things that you need overnight, party decorations but shopping for groceries that integration with whole foods. looking at apple some of the sort of resilience that we see today is just the gift of hardware, and even though they came up a bit short, we do know that that sort of delivers an annuity-type structure to what investors can expect so there's that patience, that extra little padding because there is yet to be that upgrade cycle, so that's something that's sort of clinging on to and then in an era where some management teams are getting a little bit ahead of themselves with capital spending on a.i., you have apple being a bit more cautious and for right now they are being rewarded for it. we'll see how it plays out. liz: laura you've got a buy on apple as well. what is the reaction to the iphone 16? there's so much belief that let me steal nick timiaros's earlier analogy about a beach ball underneath the water and you let go of it and it may pop as people are finally able to buy this new phone that has

the a.i. enabled siri. >> you know, i just don't agree with that because the google pixel has a lot of the features apple is trying to catch up on so i think the right question is the one you asked which is when is the upgrade cycle. i'm sort of pessimistic this year but more importantly this company spent $32 billion in the last 90 days buying its shares, so this company is putting a bid. it's putting a floor under your shares and it's generating $30 billion of cash a quarter which is using to buy your shares, so it's great place to hide. while everyone else is spending money on gen ai, which may pay off in two, three, four years, this company is buying shares and you know what the value of that is this year, so it's a great place to hide, and the upgrade cycle will come either this year or next year, but there's not a lot of valuation distinction between those two, and it's just going to stay an iphone company. it's not trying to invest in doing anything new.

liz: shelby, of all the stocks in your world, in your galaxy, which one are you most looking to, when it comes to earnings? and i mean, you look at some of these that had real run-ups, and they're going to disappoint no matter what. what do you think? is there one name out there you really are hitting hard? >> you know, i'm not sure that there's one particular name, and especially given the fact that even as active investors we are still subject to the breadth or lack thereof in the market right now, so we have seen a lot of those big pivotal names. i would say something that's a little bit off of the part of the earnings cycle that we're on now, be looking at more traditional retail. i'm personally very curious to see how walmart is going to do as we get further out into the retail earnings, because that's going to give us a big picture on trade down on what the consumer is choosing. are they continuing to go further, rather are higher

income households dipping further into those value sort of positions when it comes to their discretionary shopping so it's going to give us a nice little tied knot at the end of earnings season so it's maybe not the most exciting but it's going to give us a good picture. >> well, walmart is on sale down more than 2% so listen folks, if you flip the narrative here, change the prism through which you're looking at the markets, a lot of things are cheaper than they were yesterday. laura, shelby, great to have you both. thank you very much. 14 minutes before the closing bell rings, israel attacks on hamas and hezbollah leaders in iran and lebanon have middle east observers chewing their fingernails, but west texas crude and brent, you would think they be popping. those prices are down along with just about everything else in the market. fox business' resident oil man phil flynn is checking every tick of this market in the after

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liz: we need to take a look

as part of the sell-off at tesla shares. tesla over the past two days alone down more than 11%. its been a rough couple of days here. its been such an incredible week. lots of volatility for many stocks, but as we look at electric vehicles, because most of them are falling, in fact and i'm looking at ford it's down about 5%, we've got a cloudy environment. not just for ev's but for the oil patch. a slowing economy, if that is indeed what's happening, but you look at the jobs numbers and you see that, it means perhaps less need for fuel. that's hitting energy names hard at the moment. chevron is down after missing quarterly profit estimates. we've got it lower by about 2.8% but apache, parent apa corp., devon energy, eqt and valero down to 2% to in eqt's case 6% loss. let's get to fox business phil flynn who knows everything about the oil patch.

he's got more on the crude selling which is interesting. the basis of all of this is the fact that the crude oil picture both brent and west texas intermediate are dumping out just at a time when we have exoginous events, middle east turmoil. >> it really is amazing and it's kind of concern about the slowdown in the economy, slowing demand. in fact, a week ago, oil be hoping for a bigger interest rate cut to get the dollar down and things going but i think there's more things in play. not only do we have the concerns about a potential response from iran and hezbollah and israel over the weekend. we do have pressure from the biden administration to get israel back negotiating with hamas, and there was a report that israel is going to get into that and start negotiations, so that's one geopolitical risk factor off the table but that doesn't necessarily mean that iran still won't have some type of a response, but right now, because all the equities, people

get more clarity. liz: well, there's not going to be clarity for quite some time. let me just guess that. if i saw all the nightly news shows from 1972 to today, any given day you're going to see this line. another stumbling block on the road to peace in the middle east. that's my tom brokaw immitation but that said, where is the opportunity because at some point, the weather turns colder and people are going to need fuel to heat their homes and who knows if the economy does endure perhaps a little bit harder but still a soft landing. life goes on. >> absolutely, and listen. one of the things when we talk about a slowdown in the economy, it's really not showing up in the data. we've seen crude oil inventories fall like five weeks in a row. we've seen the energy information administration have to raise their demand forecast because they were wrong before and now we're seeing signs that the us oil production could be

peaking, and the thing is is that we got a report today from opec. they are going to keep production cuts in place until the end of the year. you put it all together we have a very tight market, and right now, because the market is so focused on fear, and we saw that in the big jump in the vix index, they aren't looking at the reality that the supply and demand ratio right now is very thin and if we don't get a recession, the markets going to have to turnaround quickly. liz: yup, indeed. phil good to see you. thank you, my friend. folks we are four and a half minutes before the close of the session and the week on a very very tumultuous for the week, the major averages forget about green, they are all down sharply. the dow will snap a four week winning streak. the s&p 500 and nasdaq will be in the red for the third week in a row. nasdaq right now in correction territory meaning it's down more than 10% since its most recent high. treasury yields, they are

screaming a message here. the two-year is plummeting and it's below 4% like by a long shot here, it's down 27 basis points at the moment to 3.8%. 10-year losing 18 basis points to 3.79%. these are anywhere from the lows of december or even worse. let's bring in our fixed income expert portfolio manager jack mcintyre. jack let's talk about the message these bond yields are blasting to the hills right now. how do you see it? >> so i think it's actually a pretty clear message that you better own some high-quality duration because i'm not saying we're plummet into a recession but the odds are increasing it's that soft landing and it could be a soft landing that transitions into a hard landing, a recession. these things can happen fairly quickly. absent that we know it's the time of year where you want to be long volatility.

the seasonal influences in august, and you know, when the market tops in sort of july/august it doesn't bode well for september and october. when i say the market being equity, so i think risk is a little challenged here, and you'll want to own treasuries and i've talked about this many times, is that it's a low cost insurance hedge against something bad happening, and that employment report tells you maybe, maybe something bad is set to happen. liz: yeah, because we've got the 4.3% print on unemployment rising from 4.1% the prior month. breaking in this hour, barclays is now predicting six rate cuts in a row of quarter basis points point cuts but then citi and jpmorgan expecting sort of super size me type cuts of 50 basis points for september and november, so what duration works best if any of this comes to pass, jack? >> so yeah, the thing that

jumps out first is cash, if the scenario unfolds and i think there's a good chance that cash is not going to look as attractive because rates are coming down, so all those funds and money-market accounts are forced to move out. i don't think they will move into equity so i think they move further out the treasury curve so i lake that 10-30 years because i think you get the bigger bang for your buck from a duration standpoint so the coupon based on what happened, the pain in 2022, treasuries have a nice coupon that can kind of compete with cash but they give you that kicker of additional upside potential. the other point i would make is yeah, the fed might start cutting, but i'm not sure if financial conditions will ease that much. that's a function of what happens with the equity market and particularly the magnificent four or seven, because there's a lot of wealth tied up in those stocks and if it continues to sell-off i'm not sure financial conditions will ease. they might actually tighten a little bit. liz: well speaking of the mag7,

for once we haven't mentioned nvidia. i'm looking at it now. it's down only 2% but for the week its had a bit of a struggle here and i think that at this point, as we look at all of these stocks, people are questioning themselves. is there any stock sector you like before we get to the closing bell? >> the one thing i do sort of look at because i think we thought treasuries but the dollars going to come under pressure too, because the biggest change in information is how quickly the us labor market is slowing down, and how quickly the fed might have to really start gunning it in terms of rate cut. >> [closing bell ringing] liz: great to have you, jack, folks. off the charts volatility meaning fear as the dow falls 612, s&p down 99, the nasdaq down. larry: hello, folks welcome to kudlow, i'm larry kudlow.

terrible j