long-term capital gains tax. by far, the highest in history. these proposals, folks. they come as job openings are rapidly declining in key election battleground states and i'm going to tell you right now you could see these states behind me. all the arrows going in the wrong direction. higher taxes will not create a single job at any of these states. also, taxing won't do that either right? people and capital is going to either flee or be horded. to this day i don't get the notion that individuals earn that it somehow belongs to the government and if there's a tax cut they are giving us something. listen when it comes to deficits it's all about out of control spending. that's what's causing deficits. not letting you keep more of what you earn. i say this as i hand it over to my colleague, liz claman. liz: charles what do you call yesterday's sell-off? like a hiccup or something? charles: after eight days up you

take a break every now and then. liz: i agree but stocks are moving higher, the dow jones industrial is up about 59 points, a fraction higher same with the s&p up 22 points just under half a percent and the nasdaq gaining 92 points russel 2000 up 23. it really, the story today is that it is retails data shine. target hit the earnings target. shares of the big box retailer that's really struggled over multiple quarters are slamming higher by about 12%. target didn't just hit the bullseye. it punched right through it. profits soared 43% year-over-year to $2.57 a share, beating street estimates of $2.18. how target did it though is what's really interesting here. it increased profits by cutting prices on 5,000 everyday items. store traffic, number of

transactions, both up during the quarter. same-store sales returned to growth and the company restarted stock buybacks and a couple of retail names are helping target hoist the markets right now overall. discounter tj maxx up 5.5% which is a record high here. tjx reported an earnings beat and raised full year profit forecast driven by discount hungry consumers. they want the deals. walmart is also hitting an all-time high after off-loading its stake in its chinese e-commerce partner jd.com. that sale netted $3.6 billion. walmart says it'll deploy that cash to build up its own e-commerce platform overseas. it's not good for jd.com shares are down 5%. look at macy's though. this contrast speaks volumes. price cuts that helped target are crushing macy's shares down 11% because the department store chain cut its annual net sales forecast citing weak demand

for even discounted upscale apparel and accessories. what is sparking deal hungry consumers to become even more discerning? could be the real jobs picture we just got. the bureau of labor statistics today dropped this. it turns out that from april of last year, to march of this year, the economy actually added 818,000 fewer jobs than first reported. biggest revision to jobs data in 15 years. listen. a cooling jobs market was what the federal reserve said it wanted in order to bring down demand and subsequently inflation, and clearly, they're getting that. how long will the markets holdup if job creation slows even more than what we just finally got the real story on? let's get to the floor show. northwest earn mutual cio brett shute has 300 billion in assets under management and he's here with trader kenny polcari. do you see any sector rotation in the wake of these jobs revisions and if so, to where?

>> you know, i really don't. i've got to tell you they are competely ignoring this jobs number. look at the market is broadly higher. they are all focused on friday's number right? they seem to, there was all this anticipation on what the number was going to be and look it's not causing any angst at all in the broader market. so therefore, i don't think i'm not certainly worried about it. didn't change my style or my investment strategy at all. i like many people whose just kind of waiting to hear what powell says on friday and even that won't change my investment style at all. liz: brett is it going to change your investment style or you already have set opinions right now. it does appear that friday, when jay powell speaks at the central bankers big hoo-ha of jackson hole that he may signal at least a quarter of a percent cut. what do you think then as we look at no real churn, no real shakiness. not even like the markets were stirred. they are neither. they are fine with this.

>> i guess any news the market has been fine with lately and that's the risk. to me the market has shook off everything and it's ignoring the labor market data which has been weak. i think the question is how weak is it and the one area people have been able to point to is payroll so even though the unemployment rate has been going up the other survey was still showing job gains which we just learned we have 818,000 less of those. liz: right. >> so that's the big thing to me. one thing that's happening today is kind of highlighting our optionality and positioning. small and mid-caps are doing quite a bit better on the hopes of rate cuts so to me, this is where i think you are seeing more movement and that is because i think the market views this as the fed is likely to cut rates now, almost 100% certainty, because the jobs market is weaker than we once thought. liz: brett, we don't expect and kenny knows this very well. we never expect viewers to fully get the if then, because rates appear to be coming down. why? just explain. we know but i want people to

understand why smaller cap companies benefit from that. it's the cost of borrowing and they borrow a lot, right? >> 100% and certainly lowers the cost of borrowing and it helps broaden out the economy so the reason why the market has been so narrow and concentrated in names that have done fairly well is because the economy has been narrow because higher rates weighed on the overall economy and smaller companies. if rates do come down, that is where you're likely to see borrowing costs lower, likely to see the economy accelerate just a bit which is kind of a difficult thing for the fed because they don't want it to accelerate too much but that would certainly help the smaller cap companies and mid cap companies grow their profits and earnings. liz: but kenny are you bitten by the small cap bug? i can't remember you saying you were although you've come up with names that you really liked that weren't gigantic >> yeah, a small cap is a great place to be for sure and we have a position as a wealth manager in the small cap space, absolutely. you have to, right? but to our point is how is

the message at the fed delivers is going to come out? is he cutting rates because everything is okay and we're not going off the edge and inflation has come down or is he cutting rates because they are getting more concerned that the economy is starting to get weaker. we saw this negative jobs number. is that going to play a role because cutting rates in that scenario is going to send a different message to the markets and while it's great for small cap companies because rates are lower if the economies not going to do well or they fear the economies going to go down the drain, that's going to cause everybody to pullback and so i think that's what you have to listen for in terms of how the fed delivers it. i think they are going to deliver it fine and stick to 25 basis points. i don't think they are going to make a jumbo rate and the market is going to pullback just in this seasonally weak time that we're in. i expect us to retest that low from two weeks ago and then, churn and build a base and then move higher from there. liz: yeah, nobody freak out. august and september are traditionally the weakest months of the year for the stock market. that said, brent, i'm very

interested because we look at how expensive certain names are. again the markets have run up pretty dramatically although it is that mag7 that have been the greater part of the beneficiary when it comes to that so explain because when we look at the cost of a stock, not the dollar cost, but what you be paying compared to the forward-looking earnings, you're saying that small caps are at about 15 times the forward earnings whereas large-caps are costing 22 times so it would make sense to transition or so-called rotation into some of the cheaper names right? >> yeah, it's because back to my comment when i opened up talking about optionality, to me and i think three to five year chunks, not what happens in the next day or two, valuation wins the long-term game and to me small caps are cheap and already discounted some form of recession. if i look at price to cash flow, there are levels reserved for recessions. so that's where i think there's

opportunities regardless of what happens in the next few months. longer term investors to invest in those things that are cheaper, because i do think one way or another, rates are going lower, recession or soft landing, and that's where i think the positive side for both of those circumstances is. liz: you know, i don't know if we can do this. can we pull up ross stores? they report earnings tomorrow. right now, up 4% hitting an all-time high and i just want our viewers to take this in the aggregate. if you're looking at target, tj maxx, ross stores these are discounters. people are going to them, and not necessarily the macy's of the world, but even so, the luxury stocks i was checking in on, from capri holdings to tapestry, they're up too. they are in the green as well, kenny. quick comment here. >> well, because i think it's a bifurcated market. you've got one part of the population that can still afford to go and spend luxury and they do, while the middle

class or lower case is getting a little bit more squeezed so they tend to go to the discount retailers which is why you're seeing kind of movement in both. liz: great to see you both. kenny, brent, thank you. >> thank you. liz: i'm looking at the dow gaining 14 points, high of the session was 139, so we're in flux. you have to stay right here and watch to see what happens by the closing bell. investors though, we know this , are building up their positions in one luxury homebuilder stock as the federal reserve gets set to drop the hammer on rates. we'll throw open the window on that story next and if you can't join us tomorrow, please make sure to set your dvr. tomorrow we are revving up for a double ceo interview as qualcomm and volvo lift the hood on their new connected cars. they join us exclusively to talk chips and chassises. that's tomorrow 3:00 p.m. eastern right here on the "clayman countdown." don't move we're coming right back in a second.

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liz: fox business alert we have a bit of a roof raiser with toll brothers. shares of the homebuilder are gaining 5.5% at this hour after posting a top and bottom line beat for the third quarter so with mortgage rates at their lowest point in a year, toll brothers also raised its full year 2,024 profit outlook on optimism, solid demand will continue through december and into 2025. investors have their sights set on key sight technologies with this 12.6% gain right now. shares of the electronic equipment maker are hitting a three-month high after increased orders for things like their osciloscopes. you don't know what that is? neither did i so i looked it up. they test and debug circuits,

and there's so much demand it drove better-than-expected than quarterly sales in profit. jpmorgan, bank of america, barclays all raised their price targets and now the medium price target on the street is $165 per share we're at 156 right now. it's game on for take two. shares of the video game software maker are up about 3% on the session. benchmark raised its price target to 210 per share from 200, right now the stocks at 159 and change, and the company also perhaps gaining on positive comments regarding the sector as a whole, an analyst from media research company telling the "wall street journal" today the video game space will return to growth next year. specifically, what would spark that? maybe the upcoming release of take two interactive's grand theft auto 6. that's expected to really push the increase in demand. american express plumbing the depths of the dow after bank

of america downgraded the stock, noting the potential for subdued billings volume growth amid muted consumer spending is behind the call. the brokerage also suggested that even high-end consumers are becoming challenged which is kind of what we just saw with macy's, so right now amex down 2.8%. democrats rolling out the star power at the democratic national convention last night as former president barack obama and his wife michelle obama took aim at former president trump as he praised candidate kamala harris. more on tap on day three of the dnc. ahead of it we've got a fair and balanced discussion. former prepared remarks can governor george allen of virginia and democratic governor mark dayton of minnesota are here to breakdown the economic positions of the harris walz ticket and check in live with the trump campaign. former presidents counterprogramming this afternoon in north carolina. we'll tell you what he said about the war in israel and

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tamra, izzy and emma... no one puts more love into logistics than these three. you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. liz: day three of the democratic national convention at the united center in chicago. the theme today and tonight, a fight for our freedoms. the party will highlight how

the harris walz ticket will protect the personal freedoms they say are most important for americans. tonight's lineup includes democratic heavyweights former president bill clinton will speak, along with former house speaker nancy pelosi, transportation secretary pete buttigieg, and then, minnesota governor tim walz will cap off the night bicepping the party's nomination as vice president to the presumptive presidential nominee kamala harris. joining me live in a fox business exclusive, two former governors republican george allen of virginia and democrat mark dayton of minnesota. welcome to you both. governor dayton, this is a big night not just for democrats but for you. you handed the reigns over to tim walz in 2020 when you finished your eight year tenure as minnesota's governor. how is minnesota feeling about tim walz? >> well its been a success story all the way. own employment rate is full employment. we have 1.9% last november. provided free lunches for school

kids to be able to learn more effectively, scholarships for kids in college and protected the rights of women to make their own healthcare decisions. he has an outstanding term to be a great vice president. liz: we look at dollars and cents certainly. you left a very large budget surplus, of course minnesota and most states you have to balance the budget, and just talk a quick bit about what governor walz has as far as surpluses concerned and growth there? >> well when i took office in 2011, after republican governor i was looking at a $6 billion deficit with the minnesota's improving economy. we have generated surplus consistently since shortly thereafter. tim continued those surpluses. he invested that money in education at all levels, and that's what this country needs is more investment in his future. liz: well, so he's obviously

able to do that and keep that budget surplus but let's bring governor allen into the conversation. governor allen? we were looking at the harris-walz website, and all there is on it are places to make donations. no policy has been described, just yet. specifically, i mean they have been dropping bits and pieces throughout, but where is the tax policy? and it feels like kamala harris is really getting a free ride, because we're waiting to hear. maybe we'll get more color, but where do you think this goes when it comes to what happens to the gop tax cuts that are supposed to sunset? >> well they have to act on them and it's good to be with governor dayton. if you want to look at governor walz's record and what he's doing in minnesota, he's had to raise taxes and every state balances their budget and the federal government ought to have a balanced budget

requirement in their constitution. liz: that be nice. >> because the federal government is spending more money on interest on the debt than on the entire department of defense budget, and what they've done in minnesota though is jacked up taxes on individuals, on corporations. they are telling people what kind of car they have to drive. it's like california ev mandate. i'm not against battery vehicles but if somebody wants a vehicle that's battery or hybrid or gasoline or diesel or corn from a jar, they ought to decide free people and free market, and people are leaving minnesota. not as much as they're leaving california, new york, new jersey, and illinois, but people are not trees, and people in businesses can and do move to places that have lower taxes, less cost of energy, less cost of regulatory burdens, and i think that the harris-walz team from what she has said and she's

part of the biden administration, they want to increase taxes on capital gains. a lot of your viewers obviously -- liz: unrealized capital gains. >> unrealized, even worse. you haven't even made the money to be taxed. liz: well what about that, governor? >> it's just so wrong. >> see the facts. we have unemployment rate below full employment level. 1.9% last november. we have a thriving state. people are working, people are getting their education so they can work more successfully. you're not talking about the minnesota that i know from life experience. liz: well, but what about that, governor dayton, about taxing unrealized capital gains? that's money people haven't even made yet, and vice president harris has floated that. couldn't that be a problem for the ticket if she pursues that? >> liz, most states have regressive taxes. if you take personal income,

corporate property and sales tax, most states have regressive taxes overall. minnesota's better than most but it's still slightly regressive, as states are because of the tax structure so you're talking about taxing very wealthy, most successful people and corporations and you're talking about providing the money that we were able to provide to kindergarten, free lunches for kids across the state. i taught at a school in new york city when kids went to school with $0.25 in tar pocket for french fries for lunch and what we're doing is establishing for a successful country in the future is what we've done in minnesota. we have a very successful state. tim deserves a lot of credit for that. liz: governor allen? >> yeah, but the difference is, the difference is generally common sense conservatives think the way that you raise revenue for the government is the vibrant economy, people working, business is prospering

and if you raise taxes too much, obviously people leave. they aren't stuck, and that's why texas and florida and tennessee and arizona and nevada, those states are booming because people and businesses can keep more of what they earn, so the point is for our country, if these tax cuts expire from 2017, it's going to make our country -- >> well donald trump wanted to cut taxes and cost $10 trillion over the next 10 years most going to the wealthy and against corporations so you talk about responsible fiscal policy. donald trump is off the deepened. liz: well let me talk about fiscal policy, but more importantly, the business picture and how kamala harris at least through the eyes of a huge business leader, former head of american express smoke last night at the dnc and he talked about kamala harris and how he feels she looks through the business prism.

listen. >> she knows that a market-based economy needs a strong and effective government. kamala harris understands that we need to help entrepreneurs turn good ideas into thriving companies. that we can create good paying jobs by helping manufactures expand. kamala harris believes in growing the economic pie for the benefit of current and future generations. unlike her opponent, she knows the way not to build an advanced economy is a broad tariff that would only raise prices, hurt consumers, and businesses, and cost jobs. she knows the way not to do it is to give people like me a tax cut. liz: governor allen, the tariff picture is a touchy one.

a broad-based tariff. people are saying that could be inflationary and we just tried to bring down inflation. >> yeah, good point. good point and then president biden has kept on the tariffs that president trump had on china. the trump idea is reciprocity if some country puts tariffs on our products of 10%, then we put it on 10% of there's. tariffs are not a good idea. you hope not to have tariffsment you want free-trade and one of the best things that we can do which is our ace in the hole as our country is utilize the blessings of our plentiful energy resources. our natural gas. our coal, our ingenuity and even advanced nuclear to make sure that we have affordable and reliable electricity and i think we're going to run our country on inefficient costly intermittent sources of electricity and i think the productive energy policies that president trump is advocating are going to make a

lot of sense to most people and especially in the battleground state of pennsylvania that understands how energy production means jobs in the communities and revenues. >> let's go back to the tariffs because that's donald trump's proposal, not kamala harris. >> but president biden -- >> very bad idea you're going to raise prices for consumers so want to talk about more stable economy, putting those kind of tariffs on imported goods is a big mistake. liz: well let's hope that we get more clarity -- >> but of course president biden has used them for getting their attention but look, mark and i agree. tariffs are a bad idea and i guess from you broaching the question, liz, you think they are a bad idea as well. on the other hand -- liz: i think in some cases, let me just say, i think in some cases, tariffs are necessary; however, we're a free market believer here and we do know that again, the chinese

government pours an unfair amount of money into propping up their companies and giving them an advantage so it's just a matter of how you view it and as we finish up, governor dayton, i just want your thought about how important it is for kamala harris to move to the center if she is going to actually be able to get the undecided. >> well i think about being who she is. this is a question for the electorate of hope and initiative and positive view of america and fear mongering and the kind of just ugly divisive donald trump kind of lies, time after time after time, and i think people are going to see that contrast and that's why i think she's going to win. liz: we're going to go to get -- >> look forward to seeing -- liz: we're running out of time i'm so sorry. both of you thank you very much governor george allen, governor

mark dayton, both served in the senate together so i know you're buddies off camera, thank you so much. >> you're welcome. liz: great to have you be sure to watch fox business special coverage of all of the speeches at the democratic national convention again president bill clinton and a whole lot more. it all begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. no matter who it is, it looks like the next president will still have to deal with the constantly unfolding chaos in the middle east. for decades us presidents and policy makers dialed up one man, for guidance on what to do in israel. he's here, next. stay tuned we're coming back in a moment.

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maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. liz: we have breaking news. former president donald trump just spoke in ashborough, north carolina. earlier this hour the president focused on national security.

here is what he talked about. >> my attitude kept us out of wars. >> [applause] >> i stop wars with phone calls. >> [applause] >> russia should have never happened. israel, october 7, would have never happened. iran would have never done that. they had very little money at that point. now they are rich as hell, but biden allowed that to happen. liz: he was joined by his runningmate ohio senator j.d. vance. this was former president trump's first outdoor rally since the assassination attempt in butler, pennsylvania back in july. he delivered the speech and i don't know if you can see it but he was surrounded by bulletproof glass. meanwhile, president joe biden just spoke with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu in the last few minutes. the white house saying the two leaders spoke about diplomatic efforts to deescalate regional tension and a possible cease-fire and hostage release. vice president kamala harris also joined that call. the conflict showing no signs of

a peaceful end. the israeli military struck a weapons depot overnight. one israel says was run by the iran militia group hezbollah and then earlier today, hezbollah responded firing more than 50 rocket which wounded one person, with this battle continuing on two fronts, how can a new administration bring an end to this war? joining us now in a fox business exclusive, malcolm homeline, the executive vice chairman of conference of presidents of major american jewish organizations, and long time advisor to many us leaders. welcome back, malcolm. it does not help that on monday, hamas set off a suicide bomber, sent a suicide bomber. thankfully nobody was killed except the homicide bomber, but hamas basically said we're going to do more of this , so when you have that kind of resistance, and you only have one side showing up to the hostage

foresees fire talks, how is this ever, no matter whose president, going to come together in the end? >> well you're right in pointing out the dilemma and the danger that they start suicide bombs in other attacks there have been numerous terrorist attacks but thank god most of them prevented but unfortunately it has taken a toll in israel and in the territories, so the answer is one thing. these people are bullies. terrorists don't fight armies. they fight civilians and the answer is strength. the one message they understand is toughness and when they understand that the world will not yield to them, will not keep making concessions to them, will not protect the leaders, will make sure everybody is held to account and they know that ultimately, there will be an accounting for them rather than putting the pressure always on israel to make further concessions and further concessions, which will inevitably lead to another war if hamas is not defeated, if their leadership is not taken

out of gaza then a year from now, two years from now they will regroup and face it again and it's a war not just about israel. it's a war about america. it's a war about the west. it's about the values that we hold. liz: and yet, secretary of state blinken has made loviathon efforts to go over and over again to bring things together but are you really sure any american president or leader can really get there and deal with this? i mean donald trump just said this would have never happened. october 7 would have never happened. is that bluster or true? i don't know if donald trump could speak directly to hamas and say don't breakdown the walls. part of the reason they invaded october 7 was because saudi arabia was about to join the abraham accords which of course was one of the best things from the trump administration but clearly hamas hated that. >> so there is a message in this , and that is if we go after the head of the snake, the head of the octopus then

the tentacles can't operate. iran created a ring of fire with hezbollah with hamas with the houthis, which have been attacking american bases as well and the way to stop it is to cutoff the air supply to iran, to stop them from being able to export millions and millions of barrels of oil a day. they were down to 100,000 barrels now it's in the millions. they sell 85% to china. they are exporting the oil from russia. if we stop them, and if we would take the steps necessary in addition to some of the sanctions that have been imposed but it's not enough. the people of iran would support it. they don't want this regime. 80% of them don't want this regime so it's not the people of iran. it's the government that continues to use these as a force against the west, and again they are aligning with russia, china, north korea to create alternative nato-like structures against us. liz: well you bring it back to

this suicide bomber on monday and what hamas has now promised which is more. this is the first suicide bomb in eight years, and now, we wonder what could happen here. the border is pourous, and in many cases we're looking at a presidential election where the border is going to be a very big issue, and we're not exactly sure where kamala harris stands. she has given lip service and said very dramatically that she stands by israel. israel has to be protected but then she pushes for the cease-fire of course which is the same thing that the biden administration is doing. here is what happened about two weeks ago at a detroit event where she was speaking, and there were protesters in the audience yelling pro-palestinian, pro-hamas chants and this was her reaction and i want you to react. >> he intends to surfing surrender ourfight against the s and he intends to end

the affordable care act. if you want donald trump to win, then say that, otherwise i'm speaking. >> [applause] liz: then she stared at those pro-palestinian protesters for another 38 seconds and kind of gave them the real glare, but what does that say to you? is she going to be fully throated, you know, a supporter of israel? >> the reason to be against what they were saying is not because it affects donald trump. it's because how it affects america and america's allies. america's allies watch the democratic convention. they're looking for messages. so far they have not gotten any that would give them the reinsurance this is going to be a priority for the next administration, and many of our allies really look to the relationship with the united states as a bell weather because they say if israel can't rely on america, what chance do we have? and especially our allies in

the middle east are looking at this and looking for the message that will say when the president said the demonstrators have a point. they did not have a point. to say it is to encourage them to carry on these kind of demonstrations. liz: which by the way, they're looking at them in chicago. these are people in some cases supporting the civilians, th the palestinians caught in the crossfire, but mike tobin on fox news interviewed a guy who said i am for hamas. these are people in america. how did we get here? >> i'm not indifferent to palestinians. they are the ones who have been sending in aid, contrary to the rumors there's starvation. it's not true. there's more than enough food but the hamas steals it despite that and most of the hold-up is because on the palestinian side not the israeli side, all the false rumors about the numbers nobody says this is hamas figures, not real figures,

and so they are getting a distorted view. the media and stuff are feeding and the propaganda machine which is so effective, run by iran and many others, pouring billions of dollars on to our campus and our institutions so young people are getting fed a lie, a distortion and this is a way for them to get their expressions against america and our system and this is very dangerous because it's all built on lies. liz: malcolm, i hope that no matter whose president they will call you for advice and we will -- >> always available. liz: thank you very much. the us jobs picture not as bright as previously thought. what will hundreds of thousands of fewer jobs to the economy mean to the federal reserve when it meets next month is now a rate cut a sure thing? what we're going to do is take you live, right out to jackson hole, wyoming, to get a preview of what federal reserve chair jay powell might say at his big speech on friday. the "clayman countdown" is

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liz: closing bell. we are seven minutes away. the dow heading for its sixth positive day out of last seven.

s&p and nasdaq on pace for the ninth day of gains in the last 10. we should look at treasury yields because they are falling at the moment. we're specifically talking about the two-year. this is intraday picture. they continued to go down. right around 2:00 p.m. eastern we got the federal reserve minutes from the most recent fed meeting which was july 31st and it appears more than just two federal reserve voting members felt that we should have started to cut interest rates in july. let's get right to edward lawrence who is at the biggest convention i guess, organization that is bringing together in jackson hole, wyoming, central bankers from all over. edward, the minutes were pretty interesting, weren't they? i'm sure it is a big chattering point here. >> reporter: it is and jobs. that is one of the big things. the benchmarks came out too. that is a really big discussion point that has been going on among the federal reserve

members that are showing up here as they arrive for the meeting that is going to start tomorrow. this benchmark is 818,000 jobs revised down. that's a huge, the second largest revision down in history. second only to the 2009 jobs report. huge, manufacturing benchmark was revised down by 115,000 jobs. construction revised down by 45,000. leisure and hospitality revised down by 155,000 jobs. these numbers will be finalized next february. this shows the market is not as strong as it white house thought. from the white house perspective, it created 2.1 million jobs rather than the 2.9 jobs. jared bernstein tells me this the preliminary estimate doesn't change the fact the job recovery has been remains historically strong, delivering solid job and

wage gains and strong consumer spending and record job creation. from the federal reserve perspective we can see why they made the pivot focusing more on the employment risks. still looks like a rate cut is coming in september. >> i don't think it will change your views of the current status of monetary policy very much. the fed is looking at risks on inflation employment that are more balanced, that's known. they need to move the rates towards more neutral. they're planning to do that. i don't think there is anything from five months ago tells you go 50 versus 25. >> reporter: and liz, we have a slew of federal reserve presidents we'll be interviewing over the next two days here at the jackson hole, symposium. ask them about revision, benchmarks, what effect the job market is having on the economy going forward as well as possible rate cuts, liz. >> possible. the world's expecting one. can't sate to see what they say. good to see you, edward. thank you very much. >> reporter: worst kept

financial secret right, liz? liz: although you never know with jay powell. edward is right there in jackson hole all week long following the powell's remarks on friday. you will see only on fox business. dow is moving higher by 73 points. whether the federal reserve successfully stick as soft landing or the economy comes in a bumpy one, our "countdown" closer has a pick for both scenarios. as a bonus he has a stock that will perform no matter what happens in the 2024 election. tack wealth advisor eddie griffin. how do you pick a stock that will do well in soft landing or hard landing scenario, eddie? >> you have to look at the roots. all we've been talking about is fed, fed, fed and the more important question is why, why is the fed cutting rate? and why is going to be, determine who the benefactor is, the big thing now also the election. you know there is some that say

it will be blue. there are some that say it will be red. i would argue that the stock you pick in that scenario where you want to know something that can do on both sides of the coin can be tesla. first of all long-term we don't want to bet against elon musk. he has shown that is not a good stock to short but from a political standpoint, look at it from one side, blue get the in, that is good for tax credits, that is good for evs, that type of stuff. we see tesla run from there. of course on the other side if trump gets in, certainly appears like trump and seal lon are buddies now. so just that alone could kind of like push the stock on a short-term buy basis. touch remember this thing right here is super super volatile. it guess up and down all across the board but if you're looking for a good short-term trade and a way to make some quick profits i think tesla, woes here. in the long run i wouldn't bet against them either. liz: your soft landing pick is

nvidia. the hard landing pick is tlt. that is the 20 year bond etf that continually shown some real resilience in a recessionary environment. that of course is not a sure thing but we're overdue for a recession, are we not? >> look at the numbers. you just heard the jobs revisions. they are down significantly which kind of points to hey, you know what? maybe something is broken under the surface. if that is the case we want to be in a place that typically does really really well in that environment. that is where the tlt trade comes in. if we look at covid or the fed went to zero overnight we saw the tlt almost completely offset the losses in the broad market. also the fed has told us hey, we're done raising. we're going to start cutting now. while tlt did awful in 2022 everything was going up because of the teeter-totter effect associated with bonds, now we're in a situation where the intention is to cut, the cut will accelerate if things are

bad. of course if things are good, and we've actually executed the soft landing it is more of the same. we have to lean into the a.i. trade. got to lean into what got us here. you can't bet guess nvidia. everyone told us it couldn't go higher, 2 couldn't go higher yet it made all wrong multiple times. the wind is at the back for nvidia. touch lean in to give yourself some shot to the upside. liz: eddie, thank you very much. nvidia, a a p-e of 75. some would say a bit rich. pe for qualcomm, 22. another a.i. chipmaker. tomorrow a fox business exclusive with the ceo of qualcomm along with volvo car ceo jim rowan. they have teamed up they will unveil a truly connected car. [closing bell rings] that will do it for "the claman countdown." we'll see you tomorrow. kudlow is next. ♪