is right. he was born february 22nd in virginia, became leader of the continental army at the age of 44 and was elected president in 1789 at the age of 57. there you have it. a final check of the market. it is still there, not as strong as it had been earlier in the day, dow is up 300, nasdaq is up one hundred 82 points. time is up for me. coast-to-coast starts now. it is yours. neil: are following the record rally, we are treating a hair breath away a second ago, gold in and out of record territory, obviously anything hinting of economic growth is the

beneficiary all because of what we heard from jerome powell, the most consequential figure, donald trump cost you a lot, kamala harris talking a lot, this was the line the got him going, we got the text of our remarks jerome powell planned to make that it's time for policy to adjust. after four years of keeping rates where they were or going higher we are going lower. 60% chance if you look at fed fund futures for quarter point cut september 18th when they next meet. 40% of folks looking for something bigger than that, we don't -- the fed chief cooling in the market conditions, we for the sweet spot on the job market, policy rate level isn't coming from the fed chief gives ample room to respond to risks including further weakening in the labor market. 5% overnight bank lending rate

level, we have a lot of wiggle room. we started this around 0%. we had 500-2500 basis points of wiggle room so the significance of that can't be lost on anyone who was hearing the fed chief including edward lawrence. edward is not in jackson hole, just in brooklyn with the green screen. amazing, what do you make of all this? >> interesting speech, very positive speech, the first time and closest time i heard the fed chairman come to say mission accomplished, the federal reserve chairman says he does see the economy coming back to 2% inflation, he sees the path down on bringing interest rates down.

>> the time has come for policy to adjust. the direction of travel is clear and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, he following outlook and balance of risks. >> reporter: that's the signal for the first interest rate cut. the catchphrase among members of the federal reserve, methodical path down that could mean 25 basis point in september, maybe a pause depends on the data, they are data dependent, the federal reserve chairman saying labor market is unmistakable cooling and sees a rise in unemployment not from layoffs but limiting hiring as more people are coming into the workforce, the fed chairman saying government spending and covid consumer habits sparked inflation. >> congress delivered fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021. spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021.

the pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery with concerns over covid made on spending on in person services. >> he sees the pent-up demand as well as consumers buying goods, not services, then add the russian invasion in 2022 as well as supply chains that were snarled and that made inflation worse and that's where we got the transitory, he does say it's time to pivot in the economy, time to start those rate cuts is what the hint was from here and he believes inflation risks have come down, unemployment risks are rising. jack: q for that. great job, getting away from fed speak at speaking english getting a handle on this. edward lawrence in front of the green screen in brooklyn. in jackson hole, wyoming, delighted to have this next lady with us, she's not getting older.

i certainly am. the research investment analyst and portfolio manager. always great seeing you. it is interesting when you pick apart jerome powell's remarks, we hit the sweet spot and he says the restricted monetary policy help to restore the balance between supply and demand and inflationary pressures are easing. do you agree with that? that's the catalyst for this presumed rate cut next month? >> i believe that the fed has done too little too long and now jerome powell is using the data selectively as he sees fit and in terms of inflation yes, the numbers we are seeing have gone down, job openings are certainly in a much better position than they've been, 8.

2 million down from 12.2 million but my answer is jerome powell is doing this selectively. more politically than anything. on september 18th we will see a 50 basis point cut. i don't think we will see 25 basis points because there's going to be too much volatility in the market. we had it around earning time last month, we are going to see more volatility hit. rob: markets respond jerkily to that. what the cc that we don't see? >> maybe the market has done a little end run around powell. what we start to see is the market having volatility because the expectation of postelection we are going to see the market come down strongly if we end of having a blue, the democrats, left taking over it is game over.

julie: get a rate cut before the election. >> since 2020 we've been waiting. neil: you think this is politically motivated? >> i really do. donald trump -- the -- we need a cut but that's just it. we've needed that cut first so many months now, the consumer is drowning in debt, the consumer is paying 29. 99% and getting fees put on that and in terms of inflation, inflation hasn't changed. it's like that game they play on the street, all the deck chairs are being rearranged. inflation is still very high. neil: when he talks about my confidence has grown that inflation is not a sustainable path back to 2%, we are on 3.4%, you quibble with that? >> yes. i absolutely do because it is about selectivity.

anyone calling out to buy a house, to buy a car, to make a purchase, to buy a refrigerator, all those things especially refrigerator and cars are falling apart faster, parts are costing more money, there's no one to fix anything, that is the additional pressure that is not included in these numbers. even if you want to say 3% inflation, 2.8%, 2.9% the reality is try to get something fixed, see what the price of labor is, see how long it takes to get a part and how long you have to stay out of work. neil: don't squander too far. i want to pick your brain on technology. gold is in and out of record territory, don't go far. peter doocy had a busy week in chicago. you are looking at these developments and the prospect of a cut in rates next month. that's a nice combo.

>> coming at a great time as she makes the case that she's responsible for an improving economy. except on the other hand, she's talking about the last couple years like she and president biden had nothing to do with it. >> with this election, our nation, our nation with this election has a precious, fleeting opportunity to move past the bitterness, cynicism and divisive battles of the past, a chance to charge a new way forward. >> reporter: para started last night to paint a broad picture of her economic platform, promising a middle-class tax cuts she says would impact 100 million people and ultimately the dnc did not cave to pressure from outsiders

including the uaw to include a pro-palestinian speaker on stage. when harris brought up the war she carefully threaded the needle like this. >> president biden and i are working to end this war such that israel is secure, the hostages are released, suffering in gaza ends and the palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination. >> there is campaign is now trying to figure out which swing state she's going to visit first postconvention and how to for folder promise to buy the end of this month have her sit for an interview. >> madame vice president, congratulations. are you ready? >> working toward it. >> reporter: vice president harris is still here in chicago.

we don't know what she is up to and her team has not told us which swing states she or governor tim walz will visit first after the convention. neil: the darkness she's referring to in her remarks, she's been part of the team in charge of stuff for almost four years so it's she referring to donald trump's rhetoric or what? they've been running the show. >> they are referring to donald trump like he is the incumbent when it comes to things like bitterness but when it comes to things like a stabilized economy after the pandemic they want credit for that so it is a very interesting dichotomy. that they want people to sign on to. neil: you have been fun to watch of this week, you mix it up for people of all sorts, the good people of boston. peter doocy following that in the windy city.

to the republican from oklahoma, senator and i will touch on something peter just did, the backdrop today postconvention, the democratic convention, markets soaring on the notion that interest rates are coming down next month. i had a market analyst saying this was politically driven. do you think a rate cut is politically driven, that it's not necessary, but that it could certainly help kamala harris? >> i hope it's not politically driven. it is needed. probably a year overdue. i would hope that it wouldn't be politically driven to help kamala harris. member she keeps talking about what she's going to do on day one and what she's going to try to accomplish but they can't do anything about the current situation the country is in because their policy is what put us here. i laugh when she talks about what she's going to do day one because it's not her message

that's driving the market, it's the fed's message about lowering tax rates but is driven the market because if she was going to do anything she would 've already done it, she has had i think 1410 days in office, a lot of day ones she could have done something about so it is kind of questionable why they are doing it now. i'm not arguing that they are doing it because they need to do it but i would hope it's not politically driven but it looks like it. neil: you have a good sense of humor and i know you tried to bury the hatchet with the teamsters president sean o'brien and apparently you haven't he speaks highly of you but i remember your back-and-forth, republicans and fighting him which was unprecedented a teamsters president talking to a republican convention. he didn't get the same opportunity to do so before the democrats at their convention. what did you think of that?

>> we talked a couple times this week which i haven't had time to thank you. donald trump called me personally, i think you guys would get along and he is correct, we do get along. julie: are both good guys, very honest broker. a different sense when it comes to labor but i did want to get your sense how democrats treated him regardless of your personal views. what you made of that. >> i called him and i'm sorry you're going through this because he told me, he's a democrat and democrat for life and the message she gave at the rnc is not something you typically here at up republican convention, he said i get what this is, these were his words, he says if i'm getting

demonized for standing up for my teamsters then so be it because we pulled inside our own teamsters and 89% of the teamsters support what i did here. we are blue-collar workers, we want to go to work, all this woke stuff, all this dei stuff is not what my teamsters believe in, we believe in going to work and having fair wages and doing a good job and i was like that is what america is about, regardless what political differences we do agree on a strong middle class and wages for people moving forward and ability to fight with that and we have the same ideas, we just have a different direction on how to get there but we can agree to disagree on some things but it is unfair for the democrat party is doing to him as president of the teamsters, the teamsters have been there for him from day one, not him, but they just abandon him. neil: interesting, in our discussions i've had not only

with you and with him, union leaders typically of any prominent union that supported democrats, prominent union tha democrats, not all the time, ronald reagan and 84 and again and 88 when it was george h running, it is the members who typically vote in much greater numbers for republicans, donald trump is optimistic no matter who union leaders are recommending it is the union members who end up voting for him, republicans in general. what do you make of that? >> i agree. mymake of that? >> i agree. my wife and i make our living all over the country, this is

what we did. and entrepreneur, the workers that are working in the fields doing light work, the same workers guarding these trucks and other teamster members out there. they do believe in freedom, the ability to make something of yourself. right now the democrat has left him. my granddaughter told me i didn't leave the democrat party, the democrat party left me. that is where the working class used to be. the working class now belongs to the republican party, you see the billionaires and radical leftists, parties of bernie sanders and aoc reading the democrat party now. kamala can call herself whatever she wants but she was the most liberal senator when she was in office and she's championed the most liberal policies under the biden/harris administration. actions speak louder than words and people out there in the streets doing work like the

teamsters and electrical workers out there every single day can see right through false words. neil: you speak your mind. i give you that. i'm afraid of both of you guys because i'm a wimp but it was good seeing you and good talking to you. be well. >> sean is a good guy. neil: we go to the same restaurant and i will pick up the tab on that because i would be afraid of having you pay for it but always good seeing you, thank you very much. by the way, we been watching the markets, the dow is still impressive, the nasdaq dropped from where it was before. gold is doing pretty well, markets in general doing well but i want you to think, more than two weeks ago, monday two weeks ago when it looked like we were in freefall. we want to take a snapshot of the moment because markets as

in politics, once that image is snapped it is shot, buyers are in charge, hopeful that rate cuts are on the way and more will follow them whether it is politically motivated or not. more after this. ♪ ♪ did i read this? did i get eggs? where are my keys?

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see why so many people, including doctors, are choosing gentlecure. call today or go to gentlecure.com. lauren: 1 she's doing in her economic speech and as well as letting people know i will not hesitate to take on major corporate interest s that is taking advantage of you and exploiting -- >> that's not happening. i get the prescription drug thing but >> negotiations -- >> $55. neil: on the food thing -- you know what is wrong. right? when the washington post says it is unrealistic do you think that is wise?

>> look at the bright side in this childish exchange go we saved a lot of time talking over each other, stu sperling talking about the republican advisor, been a narrow with bill clinton, barack obama, president biden, now key advisor to the harris campaign. what i was trying to get to the bottom of was whether he supported kamala harris's view that prices are rigged, grocery store, food companies are gouging you even with their extremely low profit margins. i also tried to get the notion, the fact of the matter is even a number of top obama economic officials simply weren't buying it, there was more supply and demand than any corporate the ball going on in the new york times and the washington post, left-leaning editorial newspapers are saying all this was a bit gimmicky to be bottle believe the. capital counsel, former top joe manchin a data biden 24

surrogate and still might be. i apologize for that long-winded introduction but i wanted to get your thoughts right away on this first economic plan that kamala harris has laid out where she is calling for price controls in the food arena and other areas, to freeze them where they are, richard nixon, a republican, tried the same thing, didn't go well. how do you feel about it? >> i love this plan for two reasons. one, it shows her background in how she solves problems, she comes at this from a prosecutor and what she's addressing is what she thinks are corporations that are price gouging people and doesn't want to that to happen anymore and a lot of the monopolies that formed in the food industry which are rising the cost of prices and she's talking what average americans and she has gone through in life, she knows the struggle of being able to afford groceries, she knows what it means.

neil: do you blame them as she blames them? why couldn't she than speak for her own administration and say if we are not going to take the full blame for this, at least some of the blame, right? >> what you are seeing, coming out of the coronavirus pandemic and the recession that was going on a lot of the policies were built to bring us out of that, now what she has seen as those prices aren't coming down and are being kept artificially high to increase profits. there's no reason corporations should be selling the same product bag of chips, flour, bread, eggs, for higher prices than they were before the pandemic even now and giving us less in those bags. neil: those price increases are coming down with general inflation numbers from summer of 22, so everything seems to be following a pattern. blaming something or someone else for what ails you would be

like me blaming her thyroid condition for being 3 or 4 pounds overnight. maybe a little more than that. get my point? seems like americans might respect this ticket more, they get high praise for personal qualities and i would agree with you on that but it looks a little disingenuous and why can't this party take some of the blame for what happened? >> they have addressed that inflation is a real problem and this is one of the ways she's trying to do that. lydia: never been responsible for being part of that problem. but part of it. >> they did say they had to do the spending to get us out of a crisis they were left with. when president biden came into office our country was -- prices were out of control. impacting baby food formula, people weren't allowed to go to

work. those were the things -- stuart: by a lot of your fellow democrats, were disappointed in what she offered as the first launching point. you are quite right it does resonate with average folks who say give us $25,000 to purchase the first home or $6000 child credit and the rest they love that, but it is almost patronizing. >> she is responding to the problems she's hearing from every day americans. these corporations have nothing to worry about if they are not price gouging at if they are not participating in monopolistic behavior so they shouldn't worry at all if they are not doing any of those things. neil: do you think your local grocery store with its 1% to 2% padded profit is really doing that? is gouging you? >> i don't think the grocery store is. the giant corporations that consolidated into 3 or 4 that

are jacking up food prices, they are. neil: are all in bed together screwing people? >> we have seen a large increase in prices and we haven't seen a decrease come down as quickly as it should have and all she is saying is i am going to look into this and make sure the average american who goes to the grocery store every week isn't getting screwed when they get to the checkout line. neil: there are other forces at play that have nothing to do with anything we did at the white house. is that disingenuous? >> noca what they have said from day one is we had to do a lot of spending. keep in mind the trump administration did a lot of spending that also caused the inflation. inflation didn't start the second joe biden took office and pass the american recovery act. inflation started -- neil: spending whether it

started prior than this administration was part of the problem? >> sure. that is what leads to inflation but keep in mind, you know inflation is a global problem. we are doing better than any other country in the world so i think some of the biden policies have to be given credit for that. neil: a lot of people can argue who had inflation, we stack up against european counterparts but a pleasure and honor having you, i appreciate it. want to take a quick look at the corner of wall and broad, the dow is up to 188 point swing. the bottom line is what is precipitating all this, much stronger surge on notions the federal reserve has after four years stated it's going to reverse policy. next month it will cut interest rates and it came out of wyoming, jackson hole where a cold wind blows but not for the us economy, say what i did

there? a cold wind, fine, after this. ♪

neil: looks like robert f kennedy junior will be dropping out of the presidential race. we will know in 90 minutes but what he does after that is

raising eyebrows. griff jenkins has the latest. >> reporter: not sure it will be as exciting as the moose in jackson hole but he addressed the nation about his path forward at what his running mate because the biggest event in american election history. he's not far from where trump will be, a strong campaign has been mired in multiple lawsuits running short on cash and there are signs it could be ending. the secretary of state tweeting paperwork of the campaign withdrawing from the ballot amid reports he is dropping out entirely and joining forces with trump who welcomes the prospect. >> i've had a great relationship with him over the years which i respect him, he respects me. i have no idea if he's going to endorse me. he has a news conference, we

happened to be in the same state. >> reporter: what impact would have on the race? in pennsylvania, harris is leading trump by three. rfk junior is palling at 4%. the harris campaign meanwhile is downplaying this. >> rfk was funded by amedgy as owners, paired a lot of themaga talking points which i don't think it would be any surprise should he formally endorsed donald trump today. >> reporter: the trump campaign saying trump will be joined today at his arizona rally buyer, quote, special guest, unclear who that may be. neil: the intrigue builds, griff jenkins on all that. i want reaction to all this with the former management and budget director, chief economist there. you know, if i can begin with

you, the market reaction to everything we've been hearing out of the fed chair but is not what it was but pretty robust gains in all the averages, the market's like to talk and seems the inability of interest rate cuts, do you -- >> initial reaction is always going to be to a rate cut to be up a little bit, but just a warning shot to everybody, we've already had the most gargantuan rate cut in a long time and that's the 10 year yield, the free market, the defining force behind loans and mortgages. it's gone from 5 down to 3. 8%, the fed still at 5. 5 on the high end. he will come down 1/4, he' s just playing catch up. as far as the market, corporations are doing well and that drop in interest rates has the cost of capital from the individual all the way to the biggest corporations making more profits because of it and able to do business better

because of it. that's driving the bus right now. neil: you are not a political guy but obviously any rate cut in this environment and the robust market is ahead of the fact, that's the wind at the back for, harris. a little less over donald trump. what do you think? >> it looks strange before the election to be cutting interest rates but something we often times will see where a fed chairman will wait until after the election but seems like they will cut interest rates. one thing i will flag is inflation is running high. we see it moderating closer to the 2% target. in the 70s and 80s they started cutting interest rates and inflation soared again. got to be aware of that as well. neil: that led to paul volcker

getting appointed fed chairman. arthur burns had gone far. you are right to remember that. there's this fear the fed has to balance inflationary pressures with delaying a response to the man trigger a slowdown. are we in danger of that as you see things now? >> prices are up. the rate of inflation is down. if the rate of inflation starts ticking backup, i promise you the 10 year yield you will see at 4.4, 4.5, then we could be in the super. it has to be watched carefully. to think you are winning on inflation because you took rates backup after printing $9 trillion, i will give them that and there's been some normalization from where we were but i keep an eye out every day and again he has taken victory laps while people can't afford food and housing,

not sure that's a smart move on his part. i think may not be in the last chapter of this. neil: you are not a market guy, nor do you see into that but you look at these developments. i don't care if you are in the white house of the federal reserve you are always looking at how the markets are doing at one of the things you here among officials is this idea that money could change hands. if gary is right and interest rates don't go down, market rates start picking up steam and whatever economic activity you have is done and inflationary, that could prove some headwinds for stocks, in other words, the alternative, cds and the like yielding 4.5%, 6% of that could be a bit of a threat, couldn't it? i say threat in that to stocks. >> that's true, talking of the velocity of money and how often it changes hands. we've seen the money supply

going down some but coming back a little bit the last couple months but velocity could start increasing at a rapid pace putting more rapid pressure on prices but the asset prices or other prices out there, gary is quite right, we have a housing afford ability issue going on, a lot of other costs americans are facing and we don't need price controls or hand out at $25,000 like kamala harris is pushing, this leads to more inflationary pressure. what we need is less inflationary pressures so we can afford all the essentials we have every day. charles: the rigging the price of food but what do you make of that argument, the administration keeps counting, that it's these other guys, not us? >> when inflation skyrocketed during their time in office, their job is to blame everything else, the dog ate my homework, just remember as inflation skyrocketed all we heard from powell, yellen, and biden was don't worry about it,

when it started getting going it was transitory and not until it was a real big problem did they start getting the act together and what's the first thing they did? the price hike. it is always somebody else's fall, supermarkets are not gouging anybody. i know the industry very well, just going after people and hopefully they back off and just campaign rhetoric and get back to just hope market forces because market forces work very well. lauren: 1 will see how those market forces address what is happening north of the border right now. thank you. the rail strike technically continues but the prime minister of canada is saying you guys got to talk to each other so they are, doesn't mean any progress is being made but the rail strike could cripple us as well and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of commerce every week. we are on it after this.

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>> walking back to cavuto coast-to-coast which harris and trump are pointing fingers when it comes to who would increase taxes on the middle class. during her acceptance speech last night harris said trump would increase taxes while she would plan to cut them. >> instead of a trump tax hike,

we will pass a middle-class tax cut that will benefit more than 100 million americans. >> reporter: this was a little misleading which harris was seemingly referring to trump's promise to add a tariff on imports. of implement at the center for american progress action fund which is a liberal think tank says it would cost families $4000. others but the estimates much lower. trump hit back saying harris's promise to raise the corporate tax rate would be a greater tax on the american consumer. >> people know where i stand, i lowered taxes, he's raising taxes, she will give a tax increase of four to five times what people and companies are paying now. the country will go into a depression if they do it. >> taking a look at trump's tax stance, he plans to make the expiring individual income tax

cuts permanent and also floated replacing personal income taxes with increased tariff which harris promised an extension of health insurance subsidies and has a bunch of initiatives that would support housing. the latter is expected to cost $200 billion. it could be offset by prescript and drug savings. she said she would increase the corporate tax rate backup to 28%. there are tax promises both have made. when it comes to the child tax credit, harris talks about expanding $6,000 for children under one years old while vance suggested increasing to $8000. another thing harris mentioned is eliminating taxes on tips which is something trump originated but no matter who makes it to the white house, that is something both parties will be talking about. . 20 thank you very much. hillary kramer back with us. a lot of mishmash here but some

cuts other hikes. where are you on how it sort out for the democratic ticket? >> harris is so so ridiculous with what she's proposing. neil: black-and-white, tell me how you feel. >> it is absolutely just it doesn't make any sense. she is so naïve, the entire harris committee that decided on these kind of tax cuts and tax increases, $1.6 trillion is what it is going to cost for the child tax credit because she's including a special component, and incentive for those who aren't working to have children. i believe in a tax credit for children. the 6030603,000 as a teenager but the point is what is she doing? buying votes with that? right there in terms of

housing, it is a subsidy but not solving long-term issues, we need houses to be built. jack: are in demand on that. donald trump talked about credits and the rest. anyone looking at deficits? >> they are not. everyone talking about where they will cut a deeper hole, that ties into the fed funds rate which is let's not fool ourselves, to get the consumer out of debt and make life easier, why else? our country can't afford the debt for all the debt out there. this, we are in a real conundrum that will ultimately impact our dollar, there's a reason we are seeing gold going higher.

neil: the 60 grand area, golden record territory, there are a lot of havens. we had all of them in sync, where are we on internet of investment. >> not more than one% of your portfolio. 3% to 5%, when it comes to crypto, digital currency, that train left the station and the fact that every investment bank, managing to trade crypto but we will see crypto eventually become the privatization of money. neil: you are not in the camp of $1 million? >> bitcoin belongs in this economy, it used to be a cash

economy of the unspeakables. so there. in terms of stocks we need to make sure companies, part of the harris campaign which economic decisionmaking she doesn't understand if unrealized gains are going to be taxed. they have less companies public. neil: so good seeing you again. a little more on this. the average is up. they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours.

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it's odd how in an instant things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. (the stock market is now down 23%). this is happening people. where there are so few certainties... (laughing) look around you. you deserve to know. as we navigate a future unknown. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. everywhere but the seat. the seat is leather. alan, we get it. you love your bike. we do, too. that's why we're america's number-one motorcycle insurer. but do you have to wedge it into everything? what? i don't do that. this reminds me of my bike. the wolf was about the size of my new motorcycle. have you seen it, by the way? happy birthday, grandma! really? look how the brushstrokes follow the line of the gas tank. -hey! -hey! brought my plus-one.

jamie?

neil: we are up across the board for markets that have a confirmation we are going to see lower interest rates as soon as next month accorded point lower, not as much as earlier. lead the way.