>> harris: it is on, the first

votes will be tallied in a few hours in iowa. caucus goers and gop hopefuls will have to brave what could be coldest temperatures in decades. wind chill expected minus 30 or below through wednesday with 40 delegates up for grabs, every vote counts. i'm harris faulkner here with emily compagno and kayleigh mcenany and editor in chief of t "the federalist" mollie hemingway and fox news contributor jason chaffetz. great to see you both. donald trump seeing his dominant lead grow and could break records. nikki haley making a final push in race for second place with governor ron desantis. aishah hasnie is live for us

from a haley campaign event in pella, iowa event. >> you are right. nikki haley is trying to close the gap with former president trump. she was at another event in des moines earlier this morning. her message has been clear this is a two-person race and she's coming after trump. >> i would take donald trump over joe biden any day of the week, i'll make sure we don't have that option. everything we've done, people have been saying for months, back 14 were in the race and we were 2e fella to catch up to and we're going to get it done. that fellow, donald trump does not have eventing today.

a number of surrogates, republicans are fanned out across iowa today. he did hold a rally yesterday and will watch election results in des moines. over the weekend he attacked vivek ramaswamy telling voters he is not maga. he is trying to break history tonight with 50% of the vote. all candidates, especially nikki haley says they are not going anywhere, they'll be in new hampshire next. harris. >> harris: thank you. mollie, lee carter, the polling expert said two things going on for nikki haley. she found 43% of her supporters would vote for joe biden. she says she is locked up never trumper vote

>> mollie: we have seen that and people who are never trump have been asking supporters to vote for her. chris christie was hoping his people would go to nikki haley thachl is her problem. she has to come in second with polling in iowa and could poll off new hampshire win that is pretty open primary and you can vote if you are democrats or independence. she has a ceiling of republican voters who want her. . >> harris: ask you about trump's words, he is going after nikki haley. he has gotten away from calling her the bird brain and he's saying she is not strong or tough enough and that may resonate with voters, they want

somebody to bring about change whachl is your take? >> jason: key factor is safety wa wallets, neighborhoods and borders. if they are not strong enough, they are not able to offer safety you need. if donald trump gets north of 50%, game over. game, set, match. >> harris: why is that? >> jason: because nobody has ever gotten there. they remember what a good president trump was. i think ron desantis will do better. he's been to the 99 counties and got a voting record. america wants to be like florida. nikki haley. mollie is right, getting the

never-trumper if donald trump wasn't in the race, those people would go to ron desantis. weather is not a factor, i've been to several -- >> harris: you live in arkansas. >> jason: the caucuses, they are laughing, it is always cold. minus 15 and minus 5, does it matter at that point? >> harris: their gear is awesome. >> emily: we know that president trump could break iowa caucus history if he bests bob dole 12-point margin of victory. when fox asked him, are you going to get 50% of the vote? he said, i don't know. nikki haley says we'll come out on top and conceptual statement, no one committing to a number.

the president came out swinging against vivek ramaswamy, he said he is not maga. he did not say he is not me, int interesting differentiation. think about the elderly and ice, couple christmas eaves ago, i told myself i could make it to the mailbox and i could not, that might have impact. >> harris: you did not fall, did you? >> emily: i did. slid my way to the mailbox. >> harris: pick up on the messaging and emily pointed out another category. as trump goes after haley, nomenclature is changing from bird brain and now bird cages he

sent her and now she is not tough enough. downplaying, that is someone underperform in rhetoric and overperform in the night. football coaches tell you how important that. >> kayleigh: run like you are behind. if trump beats 12.8% margin, he can say i have historic finish. it is smart for the campaign to set the bar. he is running as inkcumbent and ground game matters. it is a long arduous process, not the wind and cold, child care, you have to make sure your baby sitter gets there and go for two or three hours. david cokel, something donald trump did not have, good as any

good well organized operation. they did not take this for granted. 2016 donald trump did not have a ground game and now he does. desantis have knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, a lot of doors. move to nikki haley and she only had one staffer on the ground in summer and fall. one staffer. she gets endorsement of americans for prosperity and built-in network of staffers and people who know iowa. >> harris: is that about money? >> kayleigh: could be. she has had worst of the ground games and least enthusiastic supporters, but has momentum going into new hampshire. >> harris: her rise sounds like coincided with her desire to be

more competitive in place she didn't think she could win in iowa. that is specialing and money comes. if we're counting how many times who has been where, vivek ramaswamy with 99 counties twice, that is incredible. i don't know how it will show in the polling. quick thought on that? >> kayleigh: and his crowd size is big. i would not underestimate vivek ramaswamy. i don't think he beats donald trump or comes in second, but his poll numbers matter. >> emily: nikki haley said they saved their money, money was there early and saved for advertising blitz in iowa. >> harris: if you're a donor, you might like a candidate who did not spend $150 million, who knows, we will cover it.

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>> kayleigh: gop candidates pitch to voters and bill hemmer is layoff in iowa at thing about board with what to expect from voters. nice to see you. >> bill: welcome. we are getting to the big show.

"wall street journal" earlier today, a lot of people think take the state, where do you put your grid? some people say to divide in three. they make that argument, they believe more conservatives are on western side and moderates in middle and more left leaning caucus goers along the mississippi river. perhaps you can make an argument and accept that. definitely about the western side of the state, deeper the red, more evangelical. they are reliable for small counties and pick the winner four times in a row going back to mike huckabee. we'll see if ron desantis can build into dive into donald trump's lead and whether or not donald trump made ground with

evangelicals. these are college-educated women, put a dot on the map. this did not work, why we do it now instead of tonight. college-educated. dallas county to the west. two hours east is university of iowa and indicate /* caitlin clark. your most conservative by nebraska and missouri river.

lining up and down the mississippi river and along the border with minnesota. not a ton of caucus goers or votes coming from there, if someone like nikki haley is going to make end roads, i look to some of these countis, eastern part. >> kayleigh: you mentioned northwestern iowa and looking at missouri with evangelical voters. >> bill: give me a second, this area here, see how deep dark red that is temperature is rural and you are not running up the score, but down here, see how this plays out tonight. we talked about the numbers on

"america's newsroom.". trump or ramaswamy or haley or desantis. biden's job approval on abc poll hit a new low of 23% and economy on 31%. take another number, do you have mental health sharpness to serve? i have not seen numberings this low. it is on the mind of a lot 've people going to caucus tonight throughout the state. >> kayleigh: jason, we could see a split tonight. you said desantis could overperform and you have working class evangelicals and trump is

a lock. and in the dutch communities, desantis could take some. >> jason: i served on a committee and they have a good relationship with ron desantis. he was the representative for a long time. you see him at meetings that is the voter out there. biden pulled out and democrats are saying this is where the action is and you see cross-over of people that want to play in the race and those people go to nikki haley. >> kayleigh: and nikki haley has to run up numbers with college educated women. cellser found a lot of support comes from democrats. >> harris: she lines up with the one that can best beat joe biden. you have people who would prefer

her, not even a republican candidate, but could take her. steve king endorsed vivek ramaswamy. are they good friends he and desantis? >> jason: on right side of the aisle, they will vote for somebody like that. desantis will pull those people and ramaswamy will pull some, as well. >> harris: somebody mentioned mike huckabee and he said iowa caucuses say two things, they don't tell you who is going to the white house. they can tell you is who is not going to the white house. if you come out in third, fourth, fifth place, struggling in iowa, that is usually indicator it is time to get out and fascinated he did not go to iowa, chris christie.

did not give them a chance. who would be next is what governor mike huckabee is watching for, who drops out tuesday or wednesday? >> mollie: issue of nikki haley polling best against joe biden and a democratic campaign, why would you want someone who is tougher to beat? they know the longer this can be dragged out, more it hurts republican party in general. if donald trump gets everything wrapped up, he can move to taking on joe biden. if it takes seven, eight weeks, it takes money and resources and extends amount of time and biden is able to go after trump now. he knows that is all likelihood who his opponent will be.

>> kayleigh: nikki haley probably best state for her. north carolina aligned with trump and looks more like iowa than new hampshire. >> emily: that is right in clue, which ending do you want to watch? good point about strategy. to those that argue, democrats are contributing to haley's campaign and argument is this is such an embarrassment to her in context of gop. how does she explain to rest of gop say look at you taking, it her base, trump has a lock on the base along class lines. if she's fighting for college educated and independents, look at me, mag nent for those people who are democrats and recognize

the state now, which is horrible. she's the one that could best biden and gop vote for me. >> harris: until democrats figure they will pull some stunt at convention and pull him off the ticket replace them. we'll be there for all of it. >> kayleigh: democrats can vote? a republican primary, she has that in her college and very college educated state, another state that looks good for nikki haley. keep it on fox to be first know what iowa gop caucus goers are thinking. new innovative election survey approach during the 2024 season, the voter analysis will give insight on who caucus goers will support and why and more. you won't have to wait for exit poll data, we'll have information and insight starts

5:00 p.m. eastern on fox news. gop candidate battle in iowa, new poll about president biden approval is out and it is hifthry making, not in a good way. making, not in a good way. hry making, not in a good way. osry making, not in a good way. try making, not in a good way. hosto way. y making, not in a good way. making, not in a good way. hotory making, not in a good way. tory making, not in a good way. itory making, not in a good way. histo way.

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it's a full log cabin guys. ...it isn't really a vacation... we can snuggle up by the fire. ...is it? wow, oh my- [birds chirping] presidential candidate face off in iowa hoping to be one to take on president biden in november, he is facing dismal polling numbers. new abc poll shows new low of 33% dangerously close to 20s, lowest of any major poll since taking office. former president obama urged biden to be more aggressive and former obama aides says the

campaign did not have it together. david axelrod warns these concerns are serious. >> it is aggravating, you have people out there who have concerns bed wetters. sometimes there is reason to be concerned. people are committed to joe biden who felt a sense of concern. >> kayleigh: president biden is taking that warning to heart. >> president biden: i'm autographed these signed versions in our campaign store, anyone who orders a sign has a chance of getting their own yard sign now. >> kayleigh: signing big heads of himself, that is the campaign strategy. he has keyboard warriors that know what to do. >> game for all digital proposals you are putting

forward? >> absolutely, dark brandon jokes, he's leaning to them. it works because it is funny and yes meaty and based in truth. >> kayleigh: there is a definite divide, obama and his aides, obama was down to mitt romney. obama had a self-correction. >> mollie: it is interesting how much barack obama is concerned about this, his top advisers don't like what is happening with joe biden. that makes sense, it is his legacy. barack obama presidency was historic. this is his chance to redeem his

legacy. the foreign policy situation is a nightmare, come on, we need you to step it up. with polling, what is interesting, it is not about joe biden, democratic policies in general. one question about being mentally competent is a joe biden thing. this will affect joe biden and anyone else they may try to run or put in his stead. >> kayleigh: "abc news" poll, women 57% in 2020, he is under water is black and hispanic people. whoa. >> emily: look at numbers with the conversation of iowa and gop candidacy. nikki haley is gobbling up in

whicheds, 41%. nikki haley and ron desantis fighting over college graduate sector. there is a lot to be said for what the numbers represent. the democratic party is bringing out barack obama and michelle obama and john kerry helping with the campaign to protect the party, but not biden. if voters say enough is enough, it is democratic policy or if it is biden, let me listen to barack obama, i'm persuaded by the voices. he is failing, if they continue to fail, they will have their work cut out for them and exit on note gop has to coalesce. the democrats are so good at

their mob mentality. we need to combat that. >> kaylee: jason, we brought in 97 million, cash on hand and tiktok that reaches 67 million e. their argument is we've got this. >> jason: what the voters tell people with polls, they don't have this. what will they do to solve this? more joe biden? more joe biden giving vigorous speeches out there? policies are upside down, people don't like the policies and kamala harris is not an asset to the campaign. democrats are in the lead they have an organizational super structure that is nowhere close to what the republicans are doing and they are dominant that way. in terms of candidate, in fall, they only had five campaign

staffers. >> kayleigh: they got john kerry, though, they have that. >> harris: what did you say about him? he pulled out of what? >> kayleigh: climate czarness. >> harris: only 4% feel government is working for them. mollie, this is policy and the border and you take joe biden out of the picture, what about that gets fixed with another candidate? i don't know anybody that might be looking for kamala harris, just saying. i'm sure she is a nice woman, i don't know they would look for her. obama and democrats hang their hat, first black president, they say, right? how much work was he having to do against biden? he might be worse for people of

color. he is shedding so much support among african americans and hispanics, it is mind boggling. he says what he means when he says if you don't vote for him, you might not be black. he was trying to hold on to his legacy. >> kayleigh: i joked about the keyboard warrior, republicans take that seriously, digital strategy makes a different, they have a locate on tiktok. ron desantis facing pressure to have a strong performance ahead of -- >> your commitment to be participate in this process and make your voice heard, you will never have an opportunity to have your vote count in a more meaningful way.

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>> emily: the iowa caucuses are here and republican candidates are making push ahead of the contest. bill hemmer is in urbandale, iowa. bill. >> bill: good afternoon to you. we just wrapped up with ron desantis a short time ago. i asked how he is feeling, he feels great what is his prediction? he says we will do well. he says we'll know what it means when we see it. he's put in the work and he and donald trump are true conservatives in this race. talk about nikki haley, campaigning in iowa. poll shows 43% of nikki haley

supporters would vote for joe biden over donald trump in a general election. desantis told me minutes ago, that is proof she is not conservative enough to be the gop nominee. nikki haley says to bring people in under the tent. >> we heard from republicans and independents, a few democrats, that is what the republican party needs to be doing, growing the tent. >> donald trump is the front-runner and he says he is not worried about competition because of the huge lead and they have enough votes to win, we don't have to campaign. he says the swamp fears him most out of all the candidate. take a listen. >> who does the radical left fear more, nikki haley, ron

desantis or donald trump? corrupt establishment knowings if you put me back in the white house, their reign is over and america will be a free nation. >> yesterday donald trump was bashing popular governor kim reynolds saying she was not loyal enough with him. and ron desantis does not think you can get away with insulting the governor and the governor said we have put in the ground work and expect results to deliver tonight. back to you. >> emily: polls show governor desantis might have ground to make up. strong showing could be his best shot. what do you make of what we heard?

>> kaylee: the positive for desantis and negative. here is what is hurting desantis, he had more money spent against him, 48 million. what is good for him, expectations are low for him because everyone is focusing on nikki haley surging in the des moines register poll, surge with money and endorsement. if he comes in second, i don't see him getting out of the race. he is in it and in it for the longhaul. i would say this. weather when you look at weather and temperature, they are iowan ans and know how to get out in cold temperatures. the people that will show up are desantis support ares.

i think trump has a lock on that and historic win, i would not put desantis out for second place. >> mollie: another pro-con, he is most effective governor in the country. people look at his leadership and see what he's been able to accomplish in florida and think, i want this here. the con is he put everything on iowa. he was gling to win iowa and show he could take on donald trump. he did want to win this to make the case for getting the nomination and that is not likely to happen. >> emily: great point. there is are two desantises, the governor and the candidate. you had a great town hall, what did you learn about how they feel about desantis? >> harris: they love the fact he's done grassroots work and

hais important. he is closest thing to donald trump besides vivek ramaswamy but vivek ramaswamy does not have political gravitose. that is a point you and mollie made excellently. i caught him between iowa trips last summer and one thing for sure, he was spending time and money in iowa and putting all eggs in one basket. now looking at that state, it was not he was running against trump, he wanted to replace him and i don't know how you do that. trump has always been 45 to 50 of projected vote in iowa caucuses. not sure what his path was, it is interesting, he is skipping

new hampshire because nikki haley is running away with it there. see how she does against donald trump and now going straight to south carolina. i don't know if that is how you take on donald trump >> emily: jason, what is your advees to desantis? >> jason: pray. i like the guy, he would be a great president. when numbers sink in and 43% of nikki haley supporters would vote for joe biden, thats a lot, i don't know if he has time to get that message out. >> emily: we'll pop the popcorn to watch tonight. coming up, vivek ramaswamy blitzing iowa, and get attention of voters and former president donald trump. stay with us. s you 100 days to change your mind. it's simple. anything else i can help you with?

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>> sneak peek at voter analysis. which candidate caucus goers plan to support and jeff cofman on what motivated iowans to get

out and caucus. is the climate agenda fading? join us at the top of the hour. >> emily: vivek ramaswamy is campaigning in waterloo, iowa touting himself as gop outsider as he goes all in hoping to pull off a shocker in tonight's caucus. jason, what do you make of his chance? >> jason: he is an important voice for the future, but he will come in fourth out of four. he is a voice for the future and appeals to other people that republicans need to reach out to. i want him to be part of the

conversation, but tonight four out of four. >> mollie: give him credit, though, he came out of nowhere and did well. when you are a stant person here, he made his name known. people like what he has to say. he has a bright political future of some kind. he achieved a lot. >> emily: how bright is bright? what point does vivek ramaswamy honor knowledge yes my future is bright and i have to surrender and what point would tenacity be a better thing and how fourth is fourth? how much does that matter? does it matter how much he's beat by for his analysis?

>> kayleigh: it comes down to money, he can stay for the longhaul if he wants to. trump attacked him. his message is something like paraphrasing now, they won't let trump anywhere near the white house, vote for me. trump wants to get above 50 and he wants a majority victory. he wants vivek ramaswamy voters to show up and caucus for him. >> emily: we had fox town hall, a lot of people loved vivek. will this attack have an imprint or will people say it is trump being trump. >> harris: i think one said that, he is giving attention because he's doing better. vivek will try to outperform what the polling said going into tonight and i get that, every

percentage counts. he wants to make history. vivek has done something you see few people do. he has gotten name recognition that is huge. and you want to say if he's part of the conversation, he can drive lanes of conversation. one thing about going out where candidates are and seeing them on the trail and seeing reaction around them and he's got that thing to go. too soon for him? i don't know, we'll tell. how will he do, he has pockets to stay in if he chooses to. >> emily: that is right. stick around as gop candidates make their appeal to voters on iowa caucus day. call newday and pay off that high rate debt with the lower rate newday 100 va cash out loan.

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co-anchored by bret baier and martha, live from iowa. begins at 10:00 p.m. eastern. before we go, remember abc news, politico, people were reporting that ron desantis was headed straight to south carolina, not new hampshire from iowa, his campaign confirmed with politico three days ago, two days ago, as he looked to take the post caucus fight to nikki haley's back yard in south carolina. just got a text from the campaign, because as reporters we talk to them, just fyi, we are not skipping new hampshire, just making a south carolina stop before we get there. we will be in new hampshire tomorrow night for a town hall and thursday for debate. so, directly from the campaign. >> kayleigh: in realtime. >> harris: "america reports" now. >> we have an exciting night tonight. i think we are going t