has now fallen below for the nhs has now fallen below 25. how can it be turned around? so, john curtis, much respected figure, has put his neck on the line and said there is a 99% chance that labour will win the next general election. we'll ask what makes him so sure? and we learned today that 275 work visas were given to a totally non—existent care home. it seems the not fit for purpose home office is not getting much better. but before all of that, let's get the news with polly middleton first. >> nigel, thanks very much indeed. and good evening to you. we start this bulletin with some breaking news coming to us from london tonight, where a manhunt is underway after a knifeman armed with a zombie blade attacked a man on a train in broad daylight in front of other passengers. if you're watching

on television, we can show you this footage that's been posted on social media. this afternoon, appearing to show a man wearing appearing to show a man wearing a face mask and wielding a large blade after a fight broke out between two people at shortlands station in the south of the caphal station in the south of the capital. that victim, we understand, has been taken to hospital with life threatening injuries following the stabbing on the train , the met police on the train, the met police intercepted the train. we understand at beckenham junction station. paramedics attended the scene but the man who is in that picture right now got away and police are searching for him as a suspect and urging witnesses to come forward as their investigations continue. we'll bnng investigations continue. we'll bring on more on that. of course, if that story develops in the in the other news today from gp news, a poll has found that fewer than 1 in 4 people in britain are satisfied with the national health service , its national health service, its lowest level since records began 40 years ago. in fact, with the lack of access to gp's among the chief concerns, long waiting

lists also a major worry, with just 24% saying they're satisfied with the health service. that's down from 70% in 2010, the report found that tight funding and staff shortages over the last decade has left the nhs in a continual state of crisis . labour has said state of crisis. labour has said today it's going to ban the bonuses of water company bosses who oversee the polluting of britain's waterways. it's after new figures show raw sewage was dumped in england's rivers and seas. for more than 3.6 million hours in 2023. that's more than double the previous year and the highest level on record. the uk and the united states have imposed joint sanctions on a fundraising network linked to the terror group hamas. the measures target amser sultana and mustafa ayyash, who are suspected of supporting gaza. now that's a media network accused of promoting the terror group, and it marks the fourth coordinated move to sanction hamas fundraisers since the

attacks in israel of october the 7th. a driver who led police on a reckless high speed chase reaching speeds of more than 140 miles an hour, has been jailed. munib meeran was caught speeding on the m4 when officers asked him to pull over in red, as dashcam footage shows. if you're watching on tv , he sped up. the watching on tv, he sped up. the 23 year old admitted charges including dangerous driving and possession of cannabis. wiltshire police say it's fortunate nobody was injured. he's been sentenced to 26 months in prison and disqualified from driving for 18 months. that's the latest news. for the latest stories, do sign up to gb news alerts . scan the qr code on your alerts. scan the qr code on your screen or go to gb news. common hens. herts. >> good evening. the first show

i did for gb news was on the 21st of july 2021, and the first sentence i uttered was that i felt that public confidence in the national health service was about to fall off a cliff. well, goodness gracious me, got that goodness gracious me, i got that one because the british one right because the british social attitudes survey published this morning, shows that now , when asked the that now, when asked the question, do you have confidence in the national health service? the figure has fallen to 24, and that actually is astonishing when you put it in this context thatis when you put it in this context that is that in 2010, people answering that question were 70. so confidence has completely fallen off a cliff. part of it, of course, is getting access to gp services. much of it is to do with the waiting list for procedures of 7.6 million people. and there are some areas , such as mental health, where the numbers have simply gone into the stratosphere. so we have a very, very major problem, this institution that the late

nigel lawson once said was the nearest thing we genuinely have to a state religion. suddenly attitudes are different. yes but when the public are asked, would they be prepared to pay more taxes to put more money into the nhs? lot of people, about half nhs? a lot of people, about half people still say, yeah, just keep pumping in more money. and yet what's not really fully understood , and i've tried to understood, and i've tried to tell you before, is that five years ago we were spending about 7.5% of our gross domestic product, our national budget, on the national health service. we now spending over 10. so we're pumping in more and more money. and yes, of course, we have an exploding population. and we've discussed the reasons for that many times before , but we're many times before, but we're pumping in more and more money and yet becoming more and more dissatisfied. so how do we turn this around ? can it be turned this around? can it be turned around? can it get better? i'd love to get your thoughts please. farage at gbnews.com. and maybe, just maybe , if the

and maybe, just maybe, if the figure has gone from 70% to 24, maybe now is the time we can actually have a proper debate about how we reform the national health service. perhaps fundamentally, i'm joined once again in the studio by ahmed malik, consultant, orthopaedic foot and ankle surgeon and former nhs consultant for being, i think, the operative word. but i'm also joined in the studio by noel mcdermott, the ceo of mental health works. ahmed, let's start with you. i mean, you know, you worked in the nhs from 1998 to 2017. you were a consultant for the last 5 or 6 years of that. you you decided to get out. >> yeah. well i don't need a survey to tell me that things are bad, right? i mean, the thing is, everyone's talking about it in the pub at the school gate. i mean, just yesterday i had someone say to me, oh, my god, my son's going to have to wait 40 weeks for a procedure, 40 weeks. and, you know, know how you do

know, i don't know how you do this. know, i was told i had this. you know, i was told i had eight minutes to talk about all this. it's like this. i do a podcast. it's like 2 3 hours. i don't know how 2 or 3 hours. i don't know how i can explain everything in eight minutes, do your minutes, but i think, do your best. >> fi- e- >> yeah, we'll do. >> yeah, we'll do. >> every listener just goes >> if every listener just goes to movie on to the great nhs heist movie on youtube. by youtube. it was produced by doctor explains doctor bob, gill explains everything and the key thing like this author and like my friend, this author and poet margaret anna alice says she's and written this she's written and written this poem. since mistakes were not made, that we're made, everything that we're seeing calculated and it's seeing is calculated and it's not botched. it's not incompetence, it's been planned for decades. this cross—party consensus to change what the nhs is, and i would say the problem that we have now, you know, you said that question, can we make it better, can you things it better, can you turn things around. almost around. yeah. we've got almost like of the body like the invasion of the body snatchers. is not snatchers. the nhs is not the nhs that was, you know, created back in 1947 or whatever. it's not the nhs of the 1970s. since then, money has been drained into what was it, david gerber called it the job class where you've got this inflation of

management. >> we don't like those words before 9:00. sorry. never mind. >> so basically, you know, in 1979 4% of the budget went towards the management class. yeah.in towards the management class. yeah. in 2006 it was more like 14. i would wager it's now over 25. >> blairite reforms . >> blairite reforms. >> blairite reforms. >> it's not just blairite, it's tory as well. it's cross—party. it's the fees. it's the whole change of the landscape that the social care act and the social act. in 2012, everything's about privatisation . so i'll give you privatisation. so i'll give you an example. let me explain. >> well, well, labour, i mean labour brought in the private sector even more than the conservatives have. sector even more than the conthey're es have. sector even more than the conthey're es ithe. sector even more than the conthey're es ithe same, like, >> they're all the same, like, oh, i get it, i'm in. i'm in the opinion that saw uni party. opinion that saw a uni party. it's a charade. democracy. there's have there's illusion that we have choice . and know you'll say choice. and i know you'll say reform is different. but reform party is different. but i'll you an examples i'll give you an examples of privatisation, asset privatisation, complete asset stripping. all the states of stripping. so all the states of the hospitals, 700 plots are now up for grabs. hospitals, their estates have been sold off for property development. you've got

so you've got asset stripping, you've got outsourcing. so you're your your you're cleaning your your haematology. whatever is all your cooking, your food . it's your cooking, your food. it's done by private companies and you've got your , your pfi built, you've got your, your pfi built, which is just i mean, that was a complete con job. >> it's a disaster con job. >> it's a disaster con job. >> but but but ahmed, you know, there are people watching this, listening to this who are in the fortunate position. they can afford private medical insurance or they can afford to go and get private gp appointments. but for the of people, the vast majority of people, they rely on the national health service. done service. they have done for generations. they the generations. and they want the same their their same for their kids, their grandkids. what you're really saying here is we almost have to go back to the drawing board. >> yeah, we don't have that nhs anymore. >> the illusion is that we have that nhs and you know, we can just, you know, we put a sticker on it and it's the nhs. i'm going to give you some quotes. so there's a guy called mark britnell nhs commissioning kpmg opportunities for global healthcare in 2010. in the future, will be a state

future, the nhs will be a state insurance provider, not a deliverer. in future , any deliverer. in future, any willing provider from the private sector will be able to sell goods and services to the system. and doctor tim evans of the now defunct independent healthcare in more healthcare said in 2011 more succinctly, the nhs would simply be a kite mark attached to the institutions and activities of a system of purely private providers. that's a problem we don't have in—house , you know, don't have in—house, you know, government controlled, doctor led doctor autonomous , you know, institutions. >> we've got private institutions managing more doctor led practices. >> now, one of the areas, one of the areas that is a massive burden, not just on the nhs, but on the economy, on the country, on the economy, on the country, on the economy, on the country, on the social security system is, of course, this whole area of health. and i know of mental health. and i know well i'm struggling to believe this, but people are telling me that of 18 to 24 year that up to 34% of 18 to 24 year olds self diagnosed as having some form of mental health problem that could be mild depression . depression. >> i'm very conservative estimate on their part. >> are we just massively

overdiagnosing? what are normal things that have been things in life that have been thrown at people for thousands of years, that they learn to deal with, no. >> i mean, there's i'm quite old. that's sort of that's that's your self—diagnosis . that's your self—diagnosis. that's my self—diagnosis. and i don't remember those days that people talk about when there weren't mental health problems . weren't mental health problems. they were just expressed in particular ways, and certainly for guys, for example, mental health distress or psychological stress has always been, expressed in, the overuse of alcohol , violence, prison alcohol, violence, prison services, etc. and we know that. so if you look at for a minority, come on. no, if you look at the prison population , look at the prison population, 80% have two or more diagnosable severe mental health conditions, 98% of the prison population. >> that's a fair point . that's >> that's a fair point. that's a fair point. but there are only 80,000 people in our prisons. well, when we're talking here about but if you about vast numbers, but if you look at, so on this issue, there's a gender differences, for example .

for example. >> so women tend to present with the common mental health the more common mental health disorders such as depression and anxiety . men, for example, anxiety. men, for example, present with more severe mental health conditions. and they either get picked up by the criminal justice system or they get picked up by psychiatric hospitals . if we look at hospitals. if we look at children prior to the pandemic and we're looking at various indices or markers of issues. so pnor indices or markers of issues. so prior to the pandemic, you saw, 46% increase in the admission of children with one of the most serious mental health conditions, eating disorder, into hospital and hospital is the worst place for somebody with a mental health problem . it with a mental health problem. it literally that's literally is. it's that's a crisis should have been crisis that should have been avoided a long time before, by the time somebody admitted to hospital and, and an eating disorder , people won't know disorder, people won't know this, but any sort of has the highest mortality rate of any mental health condition. so this is very serious stuff. post pandemic, there is another 56% increase in children being

admitted to psych wards. we have children with autism being admitted to , psych wards, but admitted to, psych wards, but forensic psychiatric wards and forensic psychiatric wards and forensic is usually reserved. i've worked in forensic. it's all right here, noel. >> i mean, you're almost talking about societal breakdown. >> that's exactly what we're talking about. so we're talking about the destruction of civil society organisations , so that society organisations, so that people know that that's a charity. okay, so it's a mental health charity . we know the health charity. we know the world health organisation have done this research and they show that when you have a strong civil society organisation and structure, you have better mental health outcomes. and we've decimated the charitable sector and the csos have been decimated. well, i find it a very depressing picture, noel. it is a depressing, but it's the reality now , the point about reality now, the point about this is we know what has gone wrong. so that means we know how to fix it. >> okay. do we can we get can we make it better? >> we can fix this. and i think

the report that came out today was fantastic because it nailed it. it said it's the lack of engagement and investment in community based services that teach people preventative strategies around their psychological distress. >> i'm going to finish this debate, and we could do it for hours because it's a massive debate and it's very important. final word there . you know, when final word there. you know, when you listen to what noel says and if right , then the added if he's right, then the added burden that going to have burden that we're going to have to provide for this mental health crisis that he's identified , how are we going to identified, how are we going to do it? >> so i would say, look, most of the diseases, chronic diseases, mental health, diseases can actually be avoided. yes. and i think it's not just a case of charity. it's actually your diet. it's about your environment at home. lockdowns don't help keeping people away from nature and exercise and sunlight didn't help. you know, we need to stop giving them junk food in the hospitals , in the food in the hospitals, in the schools. we need to, you know, we need to get them off their

phones. you know, we've, you know, psychiatrist know, their psychiatrist now showing young their showing that young kids, their brains past brains aren't developing past the because the reptilian stage because they're too busy their they're too busy on their screens. i think what we need screens. so i think what we need to is think a much more, to do is think in a much more, you know, holistic manner and think about preventative health and not it's not about tablets. >> the education system then must have a huge role. >> absolutely. >> absolutely. >> but we also have the evidence based. it's called lifestyle medicine. so there's four areas of sleep of lifestyle medicine sleep management of stress, good diet and exercise. and if i was to say what's the one thing that will improve your health and wellbeing globally across the board, start exercising today. it's going to regular exercise 3 or 4 times a week, 20 minutes raising your heartbeat. that's the most important thing you can do for everything. and if you understand how your psychology works, you think about your hormones . go works, you think about your hormones. go and works, you think about your hormones . go and exercise works, you think about your hormones. go and exercise in a park. you're then getting what's called the biophilic effect. you're then go and exercise with a group of people. you then get lots of dopamine. you get lots a group of people. you then get lototheriopamine. you get lots

a group of people. you then get lotother positivee. you get lots a group of people. you then get lotother positive reward et lots of other positive reward hormones, all of these things. so we are talking about civil society. >> listen, i actually i think i agree with every word that both of you say. i started exercising in 2020, having not exercised for decades, and it has done me a lot of good. there's no question about it. but we still come back to the problem that even with preventative medicine, people get ill and we people will still get ill and we have a health service not fit for purpose. >> absolutely. for purpose. >> butolutely. for purpose. >> but there'll a lot less >> but there'll be a lot less people. i just want to quickly add you we add one more point. you know, we talk enough add one more point. you know, we talk do enough add one more point. you know, we talk do you enough add one more point. you know, we talk do you know, enough add one more point. you know, we talk do you know, 1970 ough add one more point. you know, we talk do you know, 1970 when we beds. do you know, 1970 when we had in this country, had less people in this country, there was 400,000 you there was 400,000 beds. you know, there's now less than 150,000. calculated 150,000. that's a calculated manoeuvre. so there's always a bed it's been bed crisis because it's been engineered . you create engineered. you create a problem, then you a problem, then you have a reaction and solution. that's reaction and a solution. that's the way is always. again and the way it is always. again and again, this debate , it's not again, this debate, it's not about i have say. about beds, i have to say. >> it's want to in terms of >> it's we want to in terms of mental health. we don't want people hospitals. people going into hospitals. >> was about. >> i was talking about. >> i was talking about. >> in of operations >> but in terms of operations and stuff, is. and other stuff, it is. gentlemen, you. gentlemen, thank you. fascinating slightly fascinating debate, slightly depressing . i have to say depressing debate. i have to say i haven't sort of finished that

segment feeling particularly cheery about world, hey , cheery about the world, but hey, if that's the truth, that's the truth. and the more we know the truth. and the more we know the truth , the more perhaps we can truth, the more perhaps we can prepare ourselves. maybe prepare ourselves. and maybe those government can start to those in government can start to prepare themselves genuine prepare themselves for a genuine radical folks , radical change. because folks, it isn't working. it's become perhaps biggest symptom of perhaps the biggest symptom of broken britain. in a minute i'll be joined by sir john curtis, who has put his head over the parapet and said there is a 99% chance of labour winning the general election . i always general election. i always thought of sir john as general election. i always thought of sirjohn as being thought of sir john as being really quite cautious and very careful. we'll find out why in a moment. he's just so certain.

so can it get better? can the nhs be improved? well, liv says so. people are more dissatisfied

with access to gp surgeries and hospital appointments. with the population exploding, is it any wonder? and if a detective couldn't find this link , you couldn't find this link, you would want them to be sacked, joe says. i'm afraid just pumping money in won't help. more and more people are turning to private health care. well, they are so with sadness we need to encourage the use of private health care by offering tax incentives . joe, i've got to incentives. joe, i've got to tell you, i have believed that for , many, many now, for many, many, many years now, 2024 is a massive election year across the globe, but it's also across the globe, but it's also a pretty big election year in this country , and it really all this country, and it really all kicks off in earnest on may the 2nd, when there will be elections for the mayor of london elections for the london assembly, nine metro mayors are up for election as well. 37 police and crime commissioners are also going to be elected, along with 2618 council seats of various types across the

country. of those seats at the moment, the conservatives hold 985 seats, labour 966 and the lib dems 410. i'm joined down the line by sirjohn curtis and before we get sir john to your general election predictions, this is a reasonably big batch of elections, isn't it? on may the 2nd, what should we be looking out for? >> yes, it is a reasonably big batch . in fact, once you put all batch. in fact, once you put all that complicated set of various elections together, everybody in england and wales will get the chance to vote for at least something , on may the 2nd. so to something, on may the 2nd. so to that extent, it is an important vote and big test. now, the thing you have to understand , thing you have to understand, haaland, is that most of these elections are for seats and for offices that were last contested in may 2021. now, in may 2021,

the conservatives were six points ahead in the opinion polls and indeed they managed to win the hartlepool by—election on the same day they gained the seat from labour, and that was also broadly speaking, reflected in the outcome of the local elections that day. although we should always remember, the democrats do better , always do democrats do better, always do better in local elections than they're doing the current they're doing in the current poll. so in other words, actually, in, even as actually, as in, even as compared with last year, the conservatives will be defending a pretty high baseline in most of these elections. we're now in a situation where the conservatives are, on average, 20 points behind in the opinion polls, now, local elections , the polls, now, local elections, the swings don't always exactly reflect what we might expect, given what the polls are saying, that would suggest about a 13 point swing as compared with 2021 last year. the swing in the local elections was a bit lower than the swing in the polls at the time, but even so, you can

see a ten point swing against the conservatives on average in these polls are not unlikely that could mean that they might lose. maybe a half of the council seats they're trying to defend, maybe a half of the councils where they're trying to defend overall control . around defend overall control. around ten or so of the pcc elections , ten or so of the pcc elections, perhaps their worst result in the greater london london assembly elections ever since the first 1 in 2000, and probably andy street in the west midlands , might be struggling to midlands, might be struggling to hang on to his post as the conservative west midlands mayor. so you can see there is potentially quite a lot at stake, you can see how quite stake, and you can see how quite quickly there is a risk, at least, that these local elections could prove to be a rather bad news story for the conservatives. yeah i mean, let's say, you know, they lose half their seats. >> they're down to 500 councillors particular councillors in this particular round , you know, is that the round, you know, is that the level at which the sort of rishi sunak alarm bells start to ring and letters start pouring in,

and letters start pouring in, and we're into new leadership contests. is there is there a number here somewhere, that would be acceptable for the government , given, as you say, government, given, as you say, in 2021, they were on a high? is there a level of loss that they might find acceptable? >> yeah, sure. i'll give you a very simple benchmark. if we take, the position in last year's local elections, when you look at the votes as opposed to looking at seats and extrapolate to the country as a whole , you to the country as a whole, you were looking at the conservatives being about nine points behind labour. if they can than that in these can do better than that in these local elections. and that would mean that, for example, they wouldn't , they'd be losing, you wouldn't, they'd be losing, you know, maybe 300 council seats rather than 500, they might be hanging to on most of the councils where they're trying to hang on to control, councils where they're trying to hang on to control , they would hang on to control, they would be losing perhaps no more than a half a dozen pcc elections. they can get the numbers down to that kind then rishi sunak kind of level. then rishi sunak would least be able claim would at least be able to claim

that despite what the polls are saying, he's made a degree of progress and that if they continue to make progress between then in autumn, then between then in the autumn, then things be then the things wouldn't be then the party yet manage to hang party might yet manage to hang on. so the truth is, yeah, you can see how anything that's significantly better than that initial set of numbers i gave you could mean mr sunak would be able to say things are getting better. >> okay, that's really useful. we're going to keep our keep that uppermost in our minds over the course of the next five weeks. now, sirjohn, the course of the next five weeks. now, sir john, you know you're a that strikes you're not a man that strikes me as huge gambler or as being a huge gambler or someone that makes outrageous comments and claims you're a political scientist, a psephologist , but you've come psephologist, but you've come out and said that it's 99% certain that labour will win the general election, actually, no. you nigel, as you say, i'm very careful about what i say . what careful about what i say. what i said was in a presentation to fellow political scientists last night, is that there was a 99% chance that labour would form

the next government, and that is not the same thing. now, let me walk you through it. at the moment, the opinion polls, on average have labour 20 points ahead. now let's look at recent full length parliaments, like the parliamentary 92 and 97 or 2005 and 2010, and this is going to be a full length parliament. what is the biggest narrowing of the lead that has occurred in the lead that has occurred in the last eight months or so of such a parliament? while it proves to be the six point narrowing of the conservative lead over labour in 2010, now let's also say that maybe the polls collectively will suffer exactly the worst of the recent polling failures, which is 1992, when they overestimated labour's position relative to the conservatives by about eight points. let's put that in the mix as well. so we're taking two extreme events, adding them together, and we've still got labour six points ahead. now

thatis labour six points ahead. now that is probably hung parliament territory rather than labour majority territory. but and this is the other thing, it's the other thing behind the 99. it's not just the poll lead, it's the conservatives are short of friends inside the house of commons. they we know that labour democrats will not sustain, help sustain a minority conservative ministration. we certainly know the snp won't plight won't maybe, maybe just the dup might. again though, whether it be willing to do so again you know question mark. yeah. but to get to that situation when you're talking about the conservatives needing to be at least 315 to 316 seats or so, that implies at least a conservative two point lead over laboun conservative two point lead over labour. right. and we are still quite a long way short. so that's the calculation. okay. it needs to be something unprecedented to get to the conservative, to a situation where they might be able to hang on to power. >> so john, many thanks for

joining us and explaining that. it just goes to show, don't believe you read it just goes to show, don't be newspapers you read it just goes to show, don't be newspapers . you read it just goes to show, don't be newspapers . thank you read it just goes to show, don't be newspapers . thank you very in newspapers. thank you very much indeed . in newspapers. thank you very much indeed. in a moment. is it really true that if we did go to war with russia, we wouldn't last more than a couple of months? and if that's the case, what the hell is happening with army recruitment? what is happening spending ? happening with defence spending? what wrong with

us? ii- us? i strongly believe we should be having a much bigger debate about defence, about our alliances, and indeed about our own military . capability. and it own military. capability. and it was important, i thought, when i went to see donald trump last week mar a lago, that he made week in mar a lago, that he made it clear where he it perfectly clear where he stands of nato. >> but, em.- em.— >> yeah, but, you know, the united states should pay its fair share, not everybody else's

fair share, not everybody else's fair share. no, no. fair enough. i believe the united states was paying i believe the united states was paying 90% of nato. the cost of nato could be 100. it was the most unfair thing . and don't most unfair thing. and don't forget, it's more important to them than it is to us. we have an ocean in between some problems. have a nice, problems. okay, we have a nice, big, beautiful ocean and it's more important for them. they would take an advantage they would take an advantage and they did. advantage of us did. they took advantage of us on and they advantage. >> on play fair, if they >> on if they play fair, if they start to play fair, america's there. >> yes, 100. »- >> yes, 100. >> well, joined down the >> well, i'm joined down the line by the former chief of general staff, lord richard dannatt, and, and lord dannatt. i mean, that was an important point that trump made, wasn't it, provided we all pay the bill. america there. i mean, bill. america is there. i mean, nato is still very much is it not, the centre of our not, at the centre of our defensive strategy, yes. to all that , nigel. defensive strategy, yes. to all that, nigel. i mean, nato is undoubtedly at the centre and the heart of our defence strategy. it's our single most significant, strategy. it's our single most significant , defensive alliance. significant, defensive alliance. and i think particularly since

brexit, it's really important that the uk shows itself to be a strong european partner within nato and play our part in european collective defence. that's really important. but donald trump, for all his bluster and his and his colourful language, makes a very fair all the european colourful language, makes a very fair membersie european colourful language, makes a very fair members mustopean colourful language, makes a very fair members must pay|n colourful language, makes a very fair members must pay their way, nato members must pay their way, and there's a lot of talk about 2% is the figure. well, that's the minimum. that's the baseline , countries like ourselves should and come on to this, should and will come on to this, i'm sure should be paying more than we are to be a significant player in deterring future aggression from russia. and that's the secret to this. it's all about deterring future aggression, not limbering up to fight another bloody and disastrous war. >> yeah, which a lot of people don't understand when this subject is raised and it's important to discuss this. i mean, lieutenant general sir rob mcgowan, defence mcgowan, deputy chief of defence staff, questioned staff, was questioned by conservative member of parliament mark francois. and, you basically he you know, and basically he confirmed francois worst fears that in a fighting , shooting war

that in a fighting, shooting war with russia, we'd be done within two months. >> well, i mean, that's exactly the point , now that's the point, now that's a situation that's exacerbated by the fact that we have given a lot of our weapons and our munitions and ammunition and missiles to ukraine, because ukraine effectively is holding the ring at the present moment and actually buying us time, but buying us time for what? actually buying us time to properly debate and think through what our proper level of defence spending should be. we're currently on about 2.2% in this country, but there's a growing clamour to go to 2.5% on its way to 3. and personally, i think that's absolutely right. and if i could just make one point, a lot of parallels are being made with the 1930s. just think back to the 1930s. there was a dictator showing aggression in europe. we chose to appease him. we chose not to rearm. now, in 1935, we were spending less than 3% of gdp on defence. when the war broke out , defence. when the war broke out, appeasement having failed. that

shot up to 18. and in 1940, when we were fighting for our lives, it was 46. that's the disastrous cost of fighting a war. what we need to do is pay the premium to deter future aggression, and i reckon that's around about 3% at least. >> they are astonishing figures ihadnt >> they are astonishing figures i hadn't heard before. astonishing figures. can i just before i let you go, i'm going to come to the spending point with mark francois himself and the political of the sort of political side of that moment. but one thing that in a moment. but one thing that in a moment. but one thing that find really alarming is that i find really alarming is that i find really alarming is that we have outsourced some years back , army recruitment to years back, army recruitment to a firm called capita , quite why a firm called capita, quite why the armed forces aren't considered capable of doing this themselves is completely beyond me. and it is astonishing lord dannatt that people who apply in many cases are being kept on waiting lists for up to six months, and that three out of four of those that apply withdraw before the end of the

process, many of them utterly disenchanted with the way that it's doing. is it not time to sack capita and to bring army recruitment back within the british army ? british army? >> short answer to that is yes. when we handle our own recruiting with recruiting offices in most high streets in most towns, we could we could attract people in. they could talk to a serving soldier, airman, sailor or marine and within a short period of time they were in their basic training . we chose to go away training. we chose to go away from that. after the 2010 disastrous 2010 defence review , disastrous 2010 defence review, because it was thought to be cheaper to outsource recruiting at a time when we were trying to, we were reducing our number of troops, so it didn't really matter. but actually it matters an awful lot. and so many young people i've come across and their parents come across to me as say he's given up as well, to say he's given up waiting . she's given waiting. waiting. she's given up waiting. yeah, unbelievable. yeah, terrible. unbelievable. the old system. a recruiting sergeant in high street. get sergeant in the high street. get them get them on and take

them in. get them on and take advantage. sensible national advantage. sensible national advantage of these young people's enthusiasm. >> exactly . lord dannatt. thank >> exactly. lord dannatt. thank you. that was a very clear answer, and i'm sure the right one.thank answer, and i'm sure the right one. thank you very much indeed. thank you. well, i'm joined in the studio francois, the studio by mark francois, former of for the former minister of state for the armed and conservative armed forces and conservative member of parliament for rayleigh of rayleigh and wickford. and of course, your question, rayleigh and wickford. and of courknow, your question, rayleigh and wickford. and of courknow, in your question, rayleigh and wickford. and of courknow, in the ur question, rayleigh and wickford. and of courknow, in the defence on, you know, in the defence committee that that answer committee that got that answer for james heappey, who'd been forjames heappey, who'd been the forces minister for the armed forces minister for some time, has resigned, has walked away, we're told one of the reasons is he's dissatisfied that that defence wasn't even mentioned in the budget. mark, what on earth is going on? >> well, firstly, very quickly, can i just absolutely agree with lord dannatt about capita? as we affectionately know, on the defence committee? yeah, outsourcing, army recruitment. we are before the watershed. >> we don't use that sort of language. >> i'm so sorry, capita, outsourcing, army recruitment , outsourcing, army recruitment, as the general implied, has proven to be. who did that ?

proven to be. who did that? well, it was it was, i'm afraid to say, a conservative government. and. but it's proven to be the mother of all false economies. and what we should do. and this came up at the committee yesterday. the secretary of state himself has described the situation as ludicrous . yes. so we then said, ludicrous. yes. so we then said, so what are you going to do about it? so if he follows his own logic, he should sack them tomorrow, take it back in—house and let the army go back to doing what they were always good at in the first place. i entirely concur with the general, the way, he's general, and by the way, he's just written a very good book called defeat. all called victory into defeat. all about between the about the parallels between the 1920s and the 1930s and the situation we have today. >> he, capita themselves say they're trying to speed things up, which i'm sure will encourage both. good. >> but it's like it's like waiting for god. it's like waiting for god. it's like waiting for god. it's like waiting for godot. but yes. okay >> really question >> really important question mark. a conservative mark. we've got a conservative government not talking about defence, really. hardly at all

unless pressed. we've got a labour party not saying very much on defence, given the situation the world is in, given how important this is, how does this become a general election issue ? issue? >> well, philip hammond, who was once a defence secretary that i served under and let's just leave it there, once famously said there are no votes in defence. i remember well, at that time , china wasn't actually that time, china wasn't actually threatening taiwan. vladimir putin hadn't invaded ukraine. we didn't have houthis firing missiles at british shipping in the red sea well, there are votes in defence now. all right. and i've always believed, you know, i'm the son of a d—day veteran. the first duty of government above all others is the defence of the realm. this must be an election issue, and i believe there would be popular support the to increase defence spending. you've heard of a thing called conservative home. it's the tory party's sort of fanzine website. they did a poll. they have a standing panel of members, three quarters of

whom weeks ago said whom a couple of weeks ago said they would rather see more money spent than cut taxes . spent on defence than cut taxes. and this is, this is a conservative party kind of internal poll. so, look, here's a report ready for war, done by the defence committee . we spent the defence committee. we spent nearly a year doing it. we're an all party committee. of the 11 of us, six are former mod ministers . others have served in ministers. others have served in the armed forces. so we know that of which we speak. that's where this thing about we couldn't more than two couldn't last more than two months. it's all documented. it's that the russians it's nothing that the russians or the chinese don't already know. >> keep shouting about it. it's an important issue and must an important issue and it must be there. during the be there. debated during the general election. thank you. in a moment, we'll find out why our friends at the home office granted 275 visas to a non—existent care home. it seems to get worse, doesn't it

not fit for purpose. yes. that's

how the home office was described, actually, many years ago . i wonder whether it's ago. i wonder whether it's actually getting worse. in some ways . i actually getting worse. in some ways. i mean, we actually getting worse. in some ways . i mean, we have ways. i mean, we have a particular case here of 275 visas being given out, to a completely non existent care home. another example over a thousand work certificates given out to a company that actually previously only had four employees. and the list goes on and on and on. and of course, all of this being debated after the former boss of borders and immigration and the inspector, david neal, resigned. and he's kind of blowing everything up and explaining to us what's going wrong. i'm joined in the studio by paul turner, immigration lawyer regular on this programme. paul, i just can't you know, we know the channel crossings problem . we've channel crossings problem. we've debated that many, many times. but but the fact that we're giving out work visas to

fraudulent claims to non—existent companies, i mean, this is also a form of illegal immigration, isn't it? >> it certainly is, nigel. and you couldn't really make it up, one of the i think the problem is, in part, that the home office are interested in taking the money off the people applying, but there's only 50 people in compliance and to make it worse, they don't just turn up unannounced if they're outside london, they actually phone then ask if phone them up and then ask if they come round. and the they can come round. and of the people they visited, people that they visited, apparently the people apparently 80% of the people that to do that they've gone to do compliance on, turns out compliance checks on, turns out it's a bogus failed, sponsoi'. >> sponson >> so the sheer number of people that are coming fraudulently, i mean, what we do know is 146,000 of these of these visas were given out between february 22nd and october 23rd. it could be from i mean, the way you're talking, a significant chunk of this could be bogus. >> indeed . i mean, one of the >> indeed. i mean, one of the things in the report, it stated that there were 16 pages of

sponsors, all registered to the same address. >> so what do we do? >> so what do we do? >> invest more in it, ram up the compliance instead of having 50 people, perhaps two, 300 people carry out spot checks, go round , carry out spot checks, go round, weed out the people that are crooks. >> and are we doing these spot checks? are they actually happening? >> a few, but hardly any . and i >> a few, but hardly any. and i noficed >> a few, but hardly any. and i noticed from the home office's own response to the report that they said they cancelled 170 sponsor licenses, given that there's 94,000 sponsor licenses , there's 94,000 sponsor licenses, it's a drop in the ocean nigel. well i have to say it, there is no area there is no area of this that i find satisfactory and that i find satisfactory and that i'm afraid does apply to the church. >> and it's not of course, just the church of england, it's baptist ministers, it's many, many course we've many others. and of course we've had the appalling case of abdul ezedi and the reason that he was allowed to stay in the united

kingdom, despite having committed previous sexual offences, and, of course, then went to on commit that pretty barbaric or very barbaric alkali attack in clapham was that, you know, he was baptised by roy merrin, a baptist minister. and if you look at your screens, you can see that baptism taking place, but david neil himself, the former immigration inspector that's blown the whistle on all of this , has said that this is of this, has said that this is happening in ridiculous quantities . happening in ridiculous quantities. hundreds of people saying we've come to christianity and that in many cases, it simply isn't genuine . cases, it simply isn't genuine. and i'm joined by michael nazir—ali, now a catholic prelate. but of course, former my former bishop, when you prelate. but of course, former my former bishop , when you were my former bishop, when you were bishop of rochester. look, i understand and that the church by its very nature is an inclusive organisation . the inclusive organisation. the doors, you know, it isn't a private members club. the doors are open . but it does seem there

are open. but it does seem there is an extreme naivety in the number of people that are claiming to have moved from the islamic religion to christianity , is it naivety? is it stupidity or is it just what you have to do if you're a priest? >> yes, i think it's well meant. i mean people, need to be welcomed, as you were saying, and very often these people come into contact with the church when they come to a food bank, for example, or to access social services or something like that. but when it comes to inquiries about faith and about conversion or baptism, now that the abuse has been revealed in the way that you were talking about, clergy need to be, especially wary and to be wise as serpents and harmless as doves, as jesus told us to be. yeah, so, to

determine, first of all, the immigration status of an asylum seeker. is it first claim, is it appeal seeker. is it first claim, is it appeal, particularly if the claim has been rejected and it is appeal . claim has been rejected and it is appeal. he's that claim has been rejected and it is appeal . he's that stage. is appeal. he's that stage. >> and that's quite common. >> and that's quite common. >> that's quite common indeed. that's the time to be especially wary about it. then also not to second guess what the home office has decided , because the office has decided, because the home office may have information that the clergy are bound not to have, for instance, about previous convictions, as in this case.in previous convictions, as in this case. in this case, indeed . case. in this case, indeed. yeah, or involvement in extremism , where the home office extremism, where the home office is, tests are concerned about bible knowledge and so on. i think this is a place where the churches and the home office may have some dialogue. so to make sure that these tests are

reasonable . well, and can, the reasonable. well, and can, the knowledge that they're asking for can be compared to what cradle christians might, might have, for instance , there is have, for instance, there is then the question about the tribunals. i mean, simply the fact of a reference from a, from clergy is not enough in every case to turn the case. >> no, quite. now, that's absolutely right. >> so, you know, the these tribunal judges have to exercise their own discretion in this matter about the extent to which something is credible . something is credible. >> it needs tightening up, there's no question. and i must, whilst you're here, it's holy week. yes, it's the most important week of the year, indeed, in the christian calendar. and yet , indeed, in the christian calendar. and yet, i indeed, in the christian calendar. and yet , i don't know. calendar. and yet, i don't know. i don't see much public debate. i don't see much public debate. i don't see much public debate. i don't see much celebration of the fact that it's easter. i think the bbc has been particularly criticised for a lack of religious programming ,

lack of religious programming, are we are we just devaluing christianity with every year that goes by? >> well, in the public space? i think that is true. but that's not true of the churches. i mean, i've been in southwark cathedral today. it was absolutely jam packed, and it's just a week day. i mean, it's a week day in holy week. yeah. and that will just grow. i mean , that will just grow. i mean, tomorrow is the mass of the lord's and we're lord's supper and we're expecting a full church. >> okay. so the churches are still healthy. >> well, they are full at this time anyway . time anyway. >> well, well, one of those churchgoers and of course, a catholic himself is the presenter of the next show this evening on gb news. it is one jacob rees mogg. i think that point about holy week and not i just don't see much talk about it. >> no, i'm quentin, that's an excellent piece in the daily mail today pointing out the bbc is showing the teletubbies rather anything christian rather than anything christian on on good friday. but i won't be broadcasting tomorrow at 8:00, because 8:00 is the time of the mass of the last supper,

and i'm expecting none of my catholic viewers to watch ehhen catholic viewers to watch either, because they will all be at mars . at mars. >> well, yeah. >> well, yeah. >> well, yeah. >> well, of course there are lots of different religions. there are indeed. yes, shades of christianity . i will be here christianity. i will be here broadcasting tomorrow, no question that. then question about that. but then you're 8:00 you you're finished by 8:00 so you can rush and i'm also can rush round. and i'm also still with. i'm still with his old church. you see. i haven't yet, but they should doing yet, but they should be doing something. yeah, well, don't something. yeah, well, i don't think very much at something. yeah, well, i don't thirthese very much at something. yeah, well, i don't thirthese days very much at something. yeah, well, i don't thirthese days on very much at something. yeah, well, i don't thirthese days on the ry much at something. yeah, well, i don't thirthese days on the current] at all these days on the current archbishop. think they'd archbishop. i think they'd rather haven't they. rather give it up, haven't they. and isn't that why you left them? >> well, what about you? >> well, what about you? >> i know >> well, well, well, i know you're the. >> you're one with the >> you're the one with the collar not me. collar on, not me. >> no, but we all have our response. >> no, we do, we do. i'm. and i stick with the church of england. i hope we're going to get another soon, and get another archbishop soon, and we'll turn things around. but i could wrong, jacob, what could well be wrong, jacob, what are discussing? are you discussing? >> i going to talking >> what am i going to be talking about? by and the about? trial by jury and the threat one of our fundamental threat to one of our fundamental constitutional the constitutional safeguards. the new has given new lord chief justice has given an that she an interview saying that she wonders shouldn't be. wonders whether it shouldn't be. got of a little and got rid of a little bit. and i think this is really dangerous.

it our great protection it is our great protection against overmighty state against the overmighty state that if we are accused of a crime, we can go in front of 12 of our fellow citizens, not just one. one bureaucrat and judges are in the pay of the state. you have to remember that they are not independent of the state. as such, they're paymaster. and to go in front of your fellow citizens, your peers is a fundamental right. and to sacrifice for justice efficiency is the chilling view of the bureaucrat throughout the ages. >> yeah, my worry is if we do take that step next, we're down the road of plea bargaining. we become like america, where everybody guilty everybody has to plead guilty because they threaten you with life imprisonment it life imprisonment or whatever it may that is it from may be. well, that is it from me. let's have a look and see what alex deakin has for us on the weather. would it please stop raining? yes >> looks like things are heating up . boxt boilers sponsors of up. boxt boilers sponsors of weather on gb news.

>> evening. welcome to your latest weather update from the met office for gb news. the weather continues to throw pretty much everything at us. further heavy downpours tomorrow. snow in places and some gusty winds along the south coast. thanks to area of coast. thanks to this area of low pressure, bands of showers have been spreading across the country throughout the past 24 hours or so, and another one spreading north. tonight will bnng spreading north. tonight will bring weather across bring some wet weather across southern england, south wales and develop some snow, and that will develop some snow, perhaps over the west midlands. certainly parts of gloucestershire, herefordshire and and then and into central and then northern wales, mostly northern parts of wales, mostly over the hills. the snow. but there could be some at lower levels. rain for many levels. heavy rain for many elsewhere as the rain clears from scotland and northern ireland. some pockets of frost certainly likely then certainly likely here. and then we look at winds picking up we look at the winds picking up along coast. a very along the south coast. a very blustery day to come. tomorrow the warning in the met office yellow warning in place here for place for the winds here and for the northern ireland, the rain in northern ireland, cause today with cause some problems today with more snow here more rain and hill snow here tomorrow that cause tomorrow again, that could cause further in nowhere. further disruption in nowhere. immune downpours further disruption in nowhere.

immuneduring downpours further disruption in nowhere. immune during thursday ours further disruption in nowhere. immuneduring thursday and for though. during thursday and for most of us going to feel pretty chilly as well. temperatures while struggling to get to double digits and feeling colder with and the rain as we with the wind and the rain as we go through the long weekend. signs of the weather getting at least a little drier. better chance of seeing sunshine chance of seeing some sunshine on particularly on good friday, particularly over and over northern england and eastern morning. eastern england in the morning. showers almost showers will develop almost everywhere . everywhere by the afternoon. fewer showers on saturday and easter day at this stage looking largely dry and signs of things at least turning just a little warmer . warmer. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on .

hello. good evening. it's me. jacob rees—mogg on state of the nation. tonight, the lord chief justice is considering taking away your most basic

constitutional right . the right constitutional right. the right to trial by jury. we know that judges are increasingly politicised, funnily enough, always to the left centre. always to the left of centre. but now have they become drunk with power too? public confidence in the national health service has reached the lowest point since this particular survey began 41 years ago, describing ago, with some describing themselves as being in a toxic relationship with it. is it now the time to restructure this bloated bureaucratic beast and if so, how? more than 100 legislators have called on the government to suspend arms sales to israel, our most important ally in the middle east. but it is in times of need that we ought to stand closest to our allies. plus, as the baltimore bridge collapses , could it bridge collapses, could it happen here? we have asked the department of transport what measures it has taken to ensure no bridges collapse in the united kingdom . i'll be united kingdom. i'll be relieving. what? revealing what they shortly. state of the they said shortly. state of the nafion they said shortly. state of the nation starts now