people and a prisoner displaced people and a prisoner swap. it comes after israel ordered the evacuation of parts of rafah ahead of a large scale military offensive. there's been no successful agreement on a ceasefire in gaza since a week long pause in november. rishi sunak says he's determined to fight, and the general election is not a foregone conclusion. the prime minister is calling for unity among tory mps after saying that he believes britain could be heading for a hung parliament. the conservatives lost hundreds of council seats and the west midlands mayoralty results rishi sunak described as bitterly disappointing . but he bitterly disappointing. but he says he's not giving up what the independent analysis shows that whilst of course this was a disappointing weekend for us, that the result of the next general election isn't a foregone conclusion and indeed actually is closer than the situation is closer than many people are saying, or indeed some of the opinion polls are predicting.

>> and that's why i'm absolutely determined to fight incredibly hard for what i believe for and the future country that i want to build. and that's what i'm going to do. >> well, liberal democrat leader sir ed davey says he will table a motion of no confidence in the government in an effort to pressure rishi sunak to call a june general election. sir ed claims that the disastrous local election results show the country has, in his words , had country has, in his words, had enough of rishi sunak and his out of touch government . the out of touch government. the motion will be tabled when parliament returns tomorrow . the parliament returns tomorrow. the new snp leader, john swinney, says he will seek to build a coalition of the willing to focus on scotland's problems, but won't resurrect the power sharing deal that they had with the scottish greens. in his acceptance speech, mr swinney called for unity and said that the polarised version of politics does not serve the country well. mr swinney's appointment was unopposed and he's expected to be voted in as scotland's new first minister later on this week . well, in the

later on this week. well, in the united states, donald trump has been fined and threatened with jail by the judge in his hush money trial. the former us president has been ordered to pay president has been ordered to pay $1,000 for violating a gag order. it prohibits him from making public comments about jurors, witnesses and the families of the judge and trump's prosecutors. judge juan mashan described mr trump's actions as wilful, and he's warned him that he could face jail as the fines don't appear to be working . and finally, gun to be working. and finally, gun salutes have rung out across the caphal salutes have rung out across the capital, marking the first anniversary of king charles's coronation a 62 gun salute rang out from tower wharf. 41 volleys were fired earlier by the king's troop, royal horse artillery, in green park in central london. the archbishop of canterbury has paid tribute to the king's sense of duty after his return to pubuc of duty after his return to public life , and says that public life, and says that crowning him was the privilege of a lifetime . for the latest

of a lifetime. for the latest stories, you can sign up to gb news alerts by scanning the qr code on your screen, or go to gb news. com slash alerts. now back to . nigel. to. nigel. >> good evening. whilst i was away in america, of course, we had a big set of elections that took place last thursday quite why it takes until saturday night to count them all. i have absolutely no idea what is the upshot of it all. well, the conservatives did pretty much as badly as expected down by nearly 500 council seats, which was pretty much what was expected. they lost nearly 50% of the seats that they held prior to the election. why.7 well, seats that they held prior to the election. why? well, in the seats where reform stood, a significant number are going to reform. and we certainly saw that in the blackpool south by—election, with reform coming just 117 votes behind the conservatives albeit with labour way out in front. there are also

conservative going back to laboun conservative going back to labour. these are the old red wall voters, brexiteer red wall voters going back to the labour party, but also a lot of conservatives simply staying at home. they're pretty disgusted with the last 14 years for laboun with the last 14 years for labour, on the face of it. well they won nearly all of the mayoral races bar one. ben houchen managed to hang on up in teesside, albeit with a vote share that was down by 20, and they'll certainly be pleased to have won the west midlands from the conservatives. andy street. so a good night for labour, but not exactly overwhelming. didn't exactly feel like tony blair in 1997. as for reform, well, they only stood in 15% of seats. i think what they did prove is they don't have much of a machine on the ground, but that the polls are right because it costs across the 300 seats in which they stood. they averaged 12% with, as i say, nearly 17% in blackpool south. so there is

a reform vote there of that, there's no doubt. but to me, the really big feature. well, i've been talking about it for months on this show. the growth of sectarian politics. i said to all of you that george galloway's win in that rochdale by—election was not a one off. let's have a look at some of the scenes that we witnessed last thursday night into friday. steyerm. hello. hello . steyerm. hello. hello. >> i'm going to tell you something here. this is a clear message to starmer. bradford has rejected labour. it's rejected zionism and this is a message to you . naz shah zionism and this is a message to you. naz shah and imran hussain. we are coming for you in the general election. anyone he's got anyone that stands with zionism .we're coming after you. zionism. we're coming after you. free palestine , free palestine .

free palestine, free palestine. >> well, anyone that supports zionism, they are coming to get. ihope zionism, they are coming to get. i hope that just means in electoral terms. although i'm not given the tone of that gentleman's manner entire . sure. gentleman's manner entire. sure. and let's see some of the scenes of celebration. and this is what you see everywhere. you know, there were about 40 council seats won by people standing on a gaza agenda. some stood for the green party, some stood for galloway, some stood as independents . and this all took independents. and this all took place in areas that are muslim majority wards. if that's not a sectarian vote, i don't know what is. how many women can you see in that picture? absolutely none. and we now go to burnley and just just watch this in burnley. please . well, burnley. please. well, what can you say. this is our country in

2024. this is the diversity agenda. is this what you intended peter mandelson, you said you wanted to open up. you wanted to change the country. well, you did it with mass immigration. but don't think the tories get off on this one. do you know, in 2023, 250,000 people settled in this country from the indian subcontinent. and what you can see is that if people come in very, very large numbers, they bring their culture with them. and what we're witnessing with this growth of sectarian politics is an attempt to take over councils is an attempt to win seats in the british parliament and over the british parliament and over the last couple of days, the organisation called muslim vote. that we've that we've highlighted here on this show before have put out 18 demands to keir starmer. before have put out 18 demands to keir starmer . things such as to keir starmer. things such as he must ensure that sharia compliant pensions are available at every workplace. it's a list

of 18 demands. and you know what? if keir starmer met those 18 demands, they'd come back with 18 more. so my question tonight is sectarian politics here to stay? i believe that it is. i believe that at the time of the 2029 general election, given the population explosion thatis given the population explosion that is going on within those communities , it will be communities, it will be a significant factor. ultimately, it will hurt labour far more than it will hurt the conservative party love your thoughts please farage @gbnews .com . well, somebody who's been .com. well, somebody who's been aware of this issue for quite a number of years is veteran journalist trevor kavanagh , journalist trevor kavanagh, associate editor of the sun newspaper. trevor you've written about the problems of integration. you've talked about this many times over the years. it looks like you're worst fears are coming true. >> i think they've they've come true, frankly. it's not coming. it's here. and what we've seen in those clips is a deeply alarming , in those clips is a deeply alarming, ugly and in fact, quite sinister because the anger

that you alluded to, the fury of these people as they leap up and down in exultation at their victories over what i think is a victory over the democratic process , using and hijacking process, using and hijacking parties like the green party in order to get across the views on gaza. nothing whatsoever to do with the people who live in leeds. i think this is just the beginning of the visible side of this. this has been going on for quite a long time in, in areas which have become muslim ghettos, almost in tower hamlets is one of the ones just down the road from us here in london, but there are many, many more where votes are not actually delivered to the ballot box by the electors, but by the people, the imams, the people who bundle them up in carry bags, as you know. >> and this is the abuse of the postal voting system. >> yes, it should be scrapped straight away. yeah all all votes should be in person. >> there is an irony here, trevor . there has not been an trevor. there has not been an election in gaza for almost 20 years. and yet here we are in engush years. and yet here we are in english local elections, voting

on gaza. but it's about more than gaza, isn't it? yes i think it's about the adoption of a whole range of things from shana whole range of things from sharia law, as you say, from shana sharia law, as you say, from sharia financing, which are in fact alien to the capitalist system that we have here. >> the democratic system, really of, of business being done. but it's also grasping is putting the feelers out into the, the areas of power where the levers of power are . you're now getting of power are. you're now getting overt, indications of people seeking to influence events which , if they are actually which, if they are actually using a market gardener in leeds representing the green party to try and manipulate national government policy on foreign affairs, you can only begin to imagine where else they might go. >> yeah, i do agree with that. i'm joined down the line by mohammed amin, the former chairman of the conservative muslim forum . good evening muslim forum. good evening mohammed. good evening. welcome back to the program. i guess

when you see a poll three weeks ago that shows that 46% of british muslims support hamas , a british muslims support hamas, a terrorist organisation, a proscribed organisation . when proscribed organisation. when you look at that, i guess these results in our inner cities are not that surprising . not that surprising. >> well, first of all, you and i met and talked about that poll a few weeks ago, and i think the poll had many deficiencies. let's not go into that now as far as what we're seeing this weekend, passions amongst some british muslims are running understandably high given what they see happening every day in gaza. they see happening every day in gaza . however, what we what they gaza. however, what we what they need to remember is that local councils do not deal in foreign policy. and i think what's been happening in terms of people standing on a gaza ticket when they're running for the local council is self—defeating, fruitless. i can understand

people feeling passionate about it, but frankly, they're wasting their time. >> well, there may be wasting their time , but i think what their time, but i think what they're doing is building up a power base so that they can win members of parliament, and they might get 1 or 2 this time round. they might get a lot in 2029. if people continue to vote on religious lines. now point i was making a moment ago. mohammed is actually the conservatives are as guilty, if not more guilty with irresponsible, open door policies to the subcontinent. and it's that culture we're seeing playing out on our streets. >> well, the people who were arriving in 2023 from the indian subcontinent are, by and large , subcontinent are, by and large, highly educated people because we have very tough visa requirements in terms of what you need to be able to earn , to you need to be able to earn, to get a visa to immigrate from anywhere in the world now. so i think it's entirely wrong. >> no no no no no no, that's not true. that's not true is it? actually, what this government did was lower the bar in terms

of what you had to earn, we've promised now to put it back up again. and also, a lot of these numbers are through family reunions, aren't they? >> well , some reunions, aren't they? >> well, some of them will be through family reunions. but the key point is that with every year that goes by, first of all, the immigrant population in generally and muslims in particular, are dispersing around the country. people do not in general vote by religious groupings. and i will be astonished if we get even one mp at the next general election who is elected because they're standing on a religious ticket. unless it's george galloway, i don't expect even george galloway to hold his seat next time, frankly. all right. >> well, i think you may be in denial, but you're confident. you're confident that the muslim population will become anglicised and vote on similar issues along similar lines to the existing population. is that what you're saying?

>> everything that we've seen about how muslims vote for the last 20 years, the issues that they consider important when they consider important when they actually go to the ballot box, the parties that they vote for indicates that they, with every year that goes by, they become more and more mainstream political voters. >> all right. mohammed amin, thank you very much indeed. folks at home, never let it be said, we don't let you hear both sides of every argument because we do. trevor kavanagh, your column , your monday column in column, your monday column in the sun, which i have to say, i always read a lot of people do. you were talking today about these two academics, these two academics, rallings and thrasher, very well respected people, and they do full analyses of upcoming elections and results, and they do it jolly well. they have extrapolated the local election results out into a general election score. so that the gap between labour and the conservatives is narrower than the 20 points that the opinion polls nationally have been suggesting. sky news have been running bannau headlines today.

it could be a hung parliament. rishi sunak saying much the same thing you seemed in your column today to agree with that analysis, or was it just wishful thinking on your part ? thinking on your part? >> probably a bit of wishful thinking, but i mean, i'm no clearer about what's going to happenin clearer about what's going to happen in 6 or 7 months time. then you are sure. but this is not just a rallings and thrasher. i've had a number of very recent conversations over lunch with former senior blairite cabinet ministers, very seasoned veteran performers, battle scarred as well. they've been through elections that they expected to win and failed to. and they say exactly the same thing. and this was long before the local elections about 2 or 3 weeks ago. and they were saying, this is going to be much, much closer. it's much more like 1964 than it is 1979, when, wilson , than it is 1979, when, wilson, who was expected to win by a landslide, won by a handful, won by four votes, four seats. so, look , anything is possible. but

look, anything is possible. but i do think the key to this is that nobody is voting for laboun that nobody is voting for labour. they're voting against the tories in huge numbers , the tories in huge numbers, there's no appetite for starmer. there's no manifesto from starmer. we don't know what he stands for. but whatever he stands for. but whatever he stands for, something he immediately does a u—turn and watch this space on gaza . if watch this space on gaza. if they're at risk of losing seats as they are . yeah. this as they are. yeah. this principled stand in favour of israel . watch that gradually israel. watch that gradually dissolve. >> it's funny you say that because he has put a statement out in the last few hours, and we'll be putting that to a labour commentator in just a moment. as you say, a week's a long time in politics, let alone 6 or 7 months. but the conservatives do need to win back trust, don't they? >> yes. and that's going to be very, very difficult. i mean, the trust has been shattered and that explains everything about last week and stay at home and everything else . and it almost everything else. and it almost doesn't matter what rishi does, because that trust is so difficult to restore. >> yeah. very hard. well we've also got john curtis coming on later, who thinks there's a 99% chance that keir starmer will be

in number 10. trevor kavanagh , in number 10. trevor kavanagh, great to have you on. thank you. in a moment we continue this with a conservative and a labour commentator. with a conservative and a labour commentator . maybe it wasn't commentator. maybe it wasn't quite the knockout blow that keir starmer was really hoping for. and those divisions on the left, people voting green, people voting for islamist candidates because frankly, that's what they are. maybe that could be a slightly bigger problem at this election than anyone had previously thought

i asked you, is sectarian politics here to stay? some of your reactions. iris says this was a local election. so let's just keep to the issues that affect the local people in these areas. common sense. iris. but i'm sorry to say that is now out of the window , gordon says. of the window, gordon says. i just wanted to say how fearful i

am for my kids future here in the uk. gordon i think that sense of unease is being felt and shared by millions and marion says this country has sleepwalked into this dreadful situation, this is the start where, marion, all i will say is there were 1 or 2 of us, trevor kavanagh, who was just here as a journalist myself on the political stage, who've been trying for over 20 years to wake people up. that irresponsible immigration, the encouragement of diversity for its own sake, would lead to problems. now in response to those results on thursday, friday, saturday, as they filtered in and in response to the 18 demands that have been made by the muslim vote that have been issued directly to keir starmer, starmer has responded this afternoon on x and said with more than a million palestinian civilians sheltering in rafah , an israeli sheltering in rafah, an israeli offensive must not go ahead. there must be an immediate

ceasefire. the immediate release of all hostages and unimpeded aid into gaza that can be delivered regularly, quickly and safely . i'm delivered regularly, quickly and safely. i'm joined by delivered regularly, quickly and safely . i'm joined by stella safely. i'm joined by stella santaguida , who of course, is santaguida, who of course, is a pubuc santaguida, who of course, is a public affairs consultant and former labour adviser. i'm not suggesting , stella, that at this suggesting, stella, that at this general election in this vote is necessarily going to cause a huge problem. although there are 40 constituencies that have a muslim population of 30% or more and a handful that are up to 50. but long term, this is a real split on the left, isn't it? >> so i agree that i think that in the next general elections, i don't think that gaza is going to have an actual to make an actual dent, because if you look at george galloway's party, which you would expect him to be able to attract, most of that protest vote, he ran on almost every seat in rochdale. he only managed to win two seats and across the whole country he won

only four seats. so actually he didn't really perform as well as you would expect him to. now, longterm, i think this has to do with demographics. it has to do with demographics. it has to do with how well we managed to integrate people. it also has to do with how the government responds to what's going on in gaza, and how the actual conflict develops . and one would conflict develops. and one would hope that, especially for local elections, it wouldn't be just that, because as as the person who wrote in said , you know, who wrote in said, you know, local elections are about local issues, they're important. but they weren't they weren't they were saying, vote on gaza. >> i mean, i had this argument. i had this argument on the stage in the referendum campaign with peter mandelson, now lord mandelson and i talked about separated communities. i mandelson and i talked about separated communities . i talked separated communities. i talked about the failures of integration, the dangers that poses , why we should be poses, why we should be sensible. and he basically said all diversity is wonderful. that has been the labour policy. labour have directly got us here. >> i don't know whether that's the case because i'm in the labour party and in my opinion it is incredibly important that

people speak english, that people speak english, that people try to assimilate , that people try to assimilate, that people try to assimilate, that people respect the local they don't. >> but when they don't and they and when they don't look, there are, there are there are times where because we live in a democracy, there is nothing you can do about someone who, for example, refuses to speak engush example, refuses to speak english unless they are, you know, dependent on the state or in some other capacity. >> they're trying to work somewhere or something like that. but i think it's incredibly important. you could say you don't want ghettos. >> you could say, we're going to withhold benefits unless you go for english speaking lessons. and we could feasibly do that. >> i am i, i'm not sure iwould >> i am i, i'm not sure i would i would agree with that. >> although i can't imagine there are too many cases where someone can't speak english completely . completely. >> there are plenty in oldham, i promise you. >> what would you do if someone was , heavily disabled? and was, heavily disabled? and that's why they, they they were on benefits. would you then have them? i mean, you would have a lot of practical problems if we don't share a language, we don't share very much. i think i would go against some more punishing measures. i would try to find, you know, i was i was just i was

just putting it out there. >> stella overall on paper, a very good night for the labour party. but independents, greens, liberal democrats , etc, this liberal democrats, etc, this wasn't exactly an overwhelming win was it? >> for the labour party? definitely was. i know that engush definitely was. i know that english people like to understate things, but in the mediterranean we like to overstate things in a sense. but i think they did really, really well. you discount, i think, 24. >> you discount this poll from rallings and thrasher saying that labour would get 38% of the vote on the national stage. >> so i don't think that you can i don't think that you can predict the general elections from the local elections because you're not going to get 24% of the vote for independent parties in the general election. you're not going to get the 17% of the vote for the liberal democrats . vote for the liberal democrats. you will have a lot of people who will be switching from independent parties to the labour party. i don't think the tories will have an equal switch. also, at the same time, you will have a lot more people voting because a lot more people more generally vote. >> these were these were low

turnout elections. and that william atkinson, assistant editor of con home, the low turnout was a problem for the conservatives, wasn't it? >> to an extent, i don't think the low turnout was in any way surprising . and if you mean that surprising. and if you mean that in the sense that conservatives were staying at home, well, i think that's a phenomenon we've long since priced in, but i don't think the turnout in these local elections was in any way a departure from the norm. and remember, these same seats were, you know, fought in 2021 with a relatively similar turnout, and the tories did very well in them. >> they did. it's a fair point, i'm just saying. but there is a feeling amongst some conservatives they just don't want to vote. i wonder whether that can possibly change. let's face it, william, it was a disaster. can you tell me why conservative party sources were briefing on friday that in london it could be. it could be that susan hall beat sadiq khan and the betting markets changed, we were also told they were very confident of hanging on to the west midlands. i mean, these i mean, you know, nearly 500 council seats down, one mayoralty out of 11 and that with a 20% decline. it this is a

very bad set of results, isn't it? >> oh, no, they're utterly appalling. i mean, i've compared it to both the ending of the fourth series of blackadder, when they go out over the top and a machine gunned down, but also to the chicxulub impact, 65 million years ago, which wiped out the dinosaurs , though in out the dinosaurs, though in this case, 1 or 2 dinosaurs might survive. i mean, this is absolutely appalling for the conservative party, and it means i think i agree with amseli this this suggests that the conservative party are going for a landslide record defeat in the next election. quite frankly, their worst defeats, under sort of a in a modern democracy, i think. sorry, since we've begun a sort of full democracy, but also i think there is a high chance they can end up with fewer than 100 seats. this is perhaps the most the greatest existential crisis the conservative party has ever faced. and i think, quite frankly , if i was rishi sunak, i frankly, if i was rishi sunak, i would hold the general election by the end of july because if they're going to cling on for any longer, the results are only ever going to get worse. >> but they believe the economy might turn around. we were told there could be a rebellion for

53 letters. none of that's happening, is it? >> no. i think the most fascinating thing about the sort of response to the results is that those who were pushing for a change have basically joined with the rest of the conservative party and realising just how awful their fate is, and perhaps there might be a point over the next few days, once tory mps are back in westminster, where that sense of resignation turns into anger. but i really don't think it's there. i think, quite frankly, there. i think, quite frankly, the average tory mp in a marginal constituency is now thinking about whichever lobbying job they can line up in a desperate attempt to find , you a desperate attempt to find, you know, a future employment for the next few months. and they are actually about there's a lot of that going on. >> and stella, let's i mean, let's say that william's right, that it's going to be a rout of dramatic proportions, and it may well be an anti—conservative vote, even anti—establishment anti say, well, well, a difficult sir keir starmer. no no, no, you're right. but you know, north london i mean he is establishment isn't he. either way whether it's anti—establishment, anti—tory,

bitter, pro—labour . you know, if bitter, pro—labour. you know, if i'm a pensioner or somebody running a small business, a high earner, if i'm somebody with money, how much should i fear this incoming labour government, the labour government? >> you should welcome it for sure, because you will you will be looking. you will be looking forward for, for once, for, for a stable government. and i think this is incredibly important for the country. tax, tax , pensions. the country. tax, tax, pensions. >> we saw you know, 97 there was a hammer blow delivered to private pensions in this country. >> look, nigel, i think we really need to tax the rich more. the billionaires especially, you know, that they're leaving now . they're leaving now. >> they're leaving now. >> they're leaving now. >> they're leaving now. >> they there is no need for anyone to be a billionaire. unfortunately, i'm not labour seat chancellor rachel reeves is not going to do that. no, she's going to see she is going to be extremely, extremely strict as it has been so far. and we already know that it's the only way labour is going to win. >> i tell you what, we already have people leaving the country. it's back to 1978. we've got

very wealthy people off to dubai and elsewhere. we've got young entrepreneurs , bad patriots, bad entrepreneurs, bad patriots, bad patriots, well, well country . patriots, well, well country. well, do you know what the beatles left? and i remember, you know, george harrison wrote a song about it and nobody would say he wasn't patriotic. but you get to a point where people say it's not worth working. and we got young people heading off to lisbon. well, i think you've answered the question quite well . not that you asked. >> i will never leave you, nigel. i will be right here campaigning for the labour party. >> well, that's delightful. thank you. william. stella. thank you. william. stella. thank you. william. stella. thank you very much indeed. in a moment, sirjohn thank you very much indeed. in a moment, sir john curtis. thank you very much indeed. in a moment, sirjohn curtis. now he's the man that said there was a 99% probability that sir keir starmer would end up in number 10 after the next election. how does he see this polling analysis that came out yesterday that's been picked up by sky news and even by rishi sunak, who's now talking about a hung parliament, does any of it make any sense, or is it, as i suspect, just a load of nonsense in that you can't extrapolate out from

i thought it was 2015. this morning as we headed into that general election. because i heard a leader of the conservative party a serving prime minister, saying. you must vote for us. otherwise there will be a coalition of chaos. there'll be labour, liberal democrats, greens, goodness knows who else. you mustn't vote for reform . that's a vote for for reform. that's a vote for laboun for reform. that's a vote for labour. but we've got a great expectation here. and the polls say that it could be a hung parliament. sky news, for some reason, seemed to pick up on that. i think it's an absolute load of nonsense, but let's speak to somebody who knows a bit more than me about these things. indeed, polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde . none university of strathclyde. none other than sirjohn university of strathclyde. none other than sir john curtis. university of strathclyde. none other than sirjohn curtis. sir john welcome as ever to the program. so it seems this poll that suggests the gap is nowhere near as big as recent national

opinion polls. how how have these learned men reached this conclusion ? conclusion? >> well, it's not a poll, nigel. it's an extrapolation of the local election results. and it's an estimate of what, in this case, colin rallings and michael thrasher thought the outcome would be if the local elections were held everywhere and places that didn't have local elections voted in an analogous manner to those that did. and i was involved in a similar exercise to the bbc. we've all been doing this now for about 40 years, and we came to very similar conclusions. that is, conservatives down a bit, labour down a bit liberal down, liberal democrats down a little bit more. but that essentially the labour lead over the conservatives is much the same as it was 12 months ago. and that therefore , in line with the that therefore, in line with the opinion polls, it appears that nothing much has changed because in a sense, what i mean, the problem we've got , and in a sense, what i mean, the problem we've got, and this in a sense, what i mean, the problem we've got , and this not problem we've got, and this not used to be true when this kind of exercise is started in the

early 1980s, but it increasingly there's been a divergence between how people vote in local elections and how they vote in general elections. it started with the liberal democrats , with the liberal democrats, beginning to outpace their national standing in the late 19805, national standing in the late 1980s, when they were in all sorts of trouble with the, split and then their original formation after the argument with the sdp. but then more recently, the greens have been doing noticeably better in local elections and even independents. it predates this election, have been doing better. okay, but what but what you can use local elections for and they are a good marker of still is the ups and downs in party performance. a party that is up in the national polls tends to do better in the next round of local elections than it did in the last one, and similarly, if you're going down. and that's why i emphasise the fact that the outcome of these local elections in terms of shares of the vote is very similar to last yeah the vote is very similar to last year. and that's what's consistent with the opinion polls. now that said, there are a couple of very particular things about these local elections, which i think one

means that extrapolations in terms of parliamentary seats is difficult, however you do it. and secondly , why these results and secondly, why these results may actually underestimate the conservatives predicament. so let me take those in turn. one of the things that's very clear from these local elections, it was also there in last year's local elections, is that a the conservative vote is falling more heavily in places where they were previously strongest. and b some, some opposition voters are voting for whichever of labour or the democrats is better able to defeat the conservatives locally. that helps to explain why the conservatives nearly lost around 500 seats, because those two parties are disastrous. if you're fighting a first past the post election. yeah, the second thing, however, i'm afraid slightly involves you, nigel. yeah and that is the influence of reform. now reform, of course, only fought around 1 in 6 of the, wards that were up for election. and the ones that they

weren't up for election basically there, as already suggested, there wasn't any swing from last year in those where there was a reform candidate . the conservative vote candidate. the conservative vote went down much more markedly . went down much more markedly. indeed. and this is quite fascinating. the decline in conservative support since may 2021, conservative support since may 202lin conservative support since may 2021, in wards which reform fought, was on average , 19 fought, was on average, 19 points. what is the decline in the average standing of the conservative party in the polls since may 2021? it is 19 points, and of course, one of the things we know from the polls is that it is reform, not labour, who are now taking more votes off the conservatives. so we shouldn't be surprised that in the absence of a reform candidate now, maybe the conservative party did better than they will do in a general election, if indeed your party sticks to a commitment unlike you did back in 2019, which is to fight every single parliamentary constituency. yeah, no doubt for the

conservatives i did them an enormous favour, and there's a lot of people i still believe it was the right thing at the time, but a lot of people, in reform and i'm just the honorary president , but and i'm just the honorary president, but a and i'm just the honorary president , but a lot of people president, but a lot of people in reform say we'll never trust them again. john. fascinating as even them again. john. fascinating as ever. thank you for joining them again. john. fascinating as ever. thank you forjoining us. ever. thank you for joining us. you're welcome. on the program. now, this is quite a story. i wondered whether it was just a load of internet nonsense, but no, it really, really isn't the london fire brigade tell us there have been , in the course there have been, in the course of 2023, 149 fires, e—bike fires . this is the lithium batteries on the bikes catching fire. three people killed, 60 wounded, some very serious damage to property. now i can't, you know, for a minute , pretend to have for a minute, pretend to have any signs of knowledge about this at all. i've tended to be sceptical of this stuff when it's on the internet, but you know what? it comes from fire chiefs. i'm listening. so i'm joined down the line by euan

mcturk , a battery electrochemist mcturk, a battery electrochemist and a man who youtubes on these things to help us all gain a little bit of knowledge. ewan. good evening, little bit of knowledge. ewan. good evening , good little bit of knowledge. ewan. good evening, good evening. nigel, help, help, help i why are nigel, help, help, help! why are these lithium batteries so spontaneously combusting? what's the problem? >> so with e—bikes, e—scooters, hoverboards. you're kind of, you know, micromobility like that. if you buy a really cheap, nasty, poorly made e—bike . off nasty, poorly made e—bike. off of alibaba or something like that, there is a possibility that, there is a possibility that it's going to have a very poorly made set of batteries. the lithium battery itself might be very poorly, very poor quality internally, there could be manufacturing defects. the battery management system that keeps the thing from, you know, from from exploding, basically could be of very poor quality. likewise, it could be bundled with the wrong charger, which is pushing too high a voltage into the battery. and that's causing these kind of devastating scenes that you see here that should

not be conflated with a proper, big brand, high quality e—bike battery. if you go for the rallies, the bromptons, the gt—x of the world, even you know you will have a meticulously well—made battery with a correct charger for it . don't buy cheap charger for it. don't buy cheap aftermarket chargers as well. make sure you go for the actual proper brand one that's designed for it. okay, and that will avoid these issues. >> okay, so let's just be clear about this. if you go for the high end, you go for the right product. you go for a trusted brand name . this is unlikely to brand name. this is unlikely to happen. but then again i have heard a couple of lime bikes that have combusted and presumably they're using all the best equipment. >> so yeah, lie—in bikes will be designed for heavy utilisation, but it could be that they've sustained severe damage. i don't know the nature of , of those know the nature of, of those particular fires, but if they have been properly , physically have been properly, physically battered, you know, like proper kind of vandalism , there's a kind of vandalism, there's a possibility that that could cause the cell to to, catch fire. that said, it's worth

pointing out you do need to do something incredibly stupid to get a well designed lithium battery to catch fire. as someone who did their best when they were testing these lithium ion cells to destruction in some of the best battery labs in the uk. i know personally just how stupid you have to be to get them to catch fire. so the lie—in bike things will be freak incidents without a doubt. it's only generally speaking when you go for the cheap kind of retrofit kits and the cheap, no name brands from online. actually, just a very quick thing as well. the office for product safety and standards are actively looking into this. and those dangerous brands that we've just talked about there. they are putting withdrawal notices on them for both in—store and online retailers to help this, to avoid this happening again. >> and if people want to learn more you and about this, they can go to your youtube channel. where do they go? >> thug life television. yeah. so i've basically i'm a consultant battery electrochemist i've been working on and driving ev since 2009. i'll tell you how batteries work and the best things to do with them. >> terrific. thank you very much

indeed for joining >> terrific. thank you very much indeed forjoining us. thank you. nigel. the program now for a long time, for many, many years , i've been saying that the years, i've been saying that the ever eastward expansion of nato and the european union was an unnecessary provocation against putin and against a russia that is paranoid because of napoleon, hitler and being invaded. well you could knock me down with a feather. george robertson, former labour minister. but more significantly, the former secretary—general of nato said to the new statesman about putin, he said he's not bothered about nato or nato enlargement, but he is bothered about the european union. the whole ukraine crisis started with the offer of an eu accession agreement to ukraine in 2014, george robertson being clear that eu expansion is the reason for the ukraine war. i tend to think it's both, but hey, interesting . that the sort of

interesting. that the sort of things that i've been saying and screamed and shouted at by the political class and much of the ever so smart mainstream media, and there's quite a heavyweight there. taking a very similar opinion in a moment, let's have some good news. i know it's a rotten, rainy, ghastly bank houdayin rotten, rainy, ghastly bank holiday in many ways, particularly here in the south. it's not a day when people go to the pub. trouble is, so many pubs have closed. well, heineken have announced a £39 million boost for their pubs and even the prospect of reopening over 60 that have closed. what

well, one of two depressing stories at the top of the show this evening. very worrying stories for the future of our country and our communities. let's have some good news stories. and, boy, don't we need it with a number of pubs that are closed, i just think around where i live in a very small radius of where i am. about four country pubs have gone over the course of the last few years. it is sad , but heineken are saying

is sad, but heineken are saying they're going to pump in 39 million into their chain of 600 pubs. they're going to reopen potentially 62 of the pubs that have closed . they want to have closed. they want to introduce the concept of the premium local and from what i can see, the plans are quite a lot to do with zoning. so there'll be an area where there is just eating, there'll be a separate area where people have got, you know, the sports on, they're watching football, cricket, rugby, whatever it may be.can cricket, rugby, whatever it may be. can it be done, can this be turned around? our heineken . turned around? our heineken. right. i'm joined down the line by victoria macdonald. national executive committee of the campaign for pubs and landlady of three pubs, victoria, you know, the old fashioned boozer . know, the old fashioned boozer. you know where people go in drink. you might get a cheese roll on a good day, but it'll be three days old. i mean, that very, very few places like that can survive. it seems that the pubs that heineken own are

mostly in small town stroke suburbia, and their argument is that the pubs, the decor are out of date, that if they're themed and zoned, they could be a comeback of this , of this idea comeback of this, of this idea of the premium local . do you of the premium local. do you think heineken, do you think in some way heineken may have this right? >> well, as you said, right at the start, there are hundreds of pubs closing and anything that supports, bringing the pub back into communities has to be applauded. but in this case it has to be with a very large pinch of salt. what we have to remember is that heineken is a very, very large pub company, that what you're what we're looking at really is a collection of kit pubs which will be tenanted. they will be run under their banner. their tenants will have to buy their beers from them. so we're looking at tide models , it would looking at tide models, it would be interesting to see what they're, you know, are they going to take percentages from the managed houses that they're

creating? we don't know what model this is, and we're not really talking about the classic pub run by quality landlords who offer exactly what local community needs. >> all right. so it's a little bit unclear . and for those bit unclear. and for those tenants who have to buy the dnnks tenants who have to buy the drinks from the brewery and they got to pay significant rents, very tough to earn a living . very tough to earn a living. >> oh, massively. absolutely massive. i mean, we've had the government hailing recently. they did last year. government hailing recently. they did last year . we spoke they did last year. we spoke about it last year and this year saying, oh, well, we've supporting pubs by, cutting duty. well as we know, duty is something that only supports producers . heineken, something that only supports producers. heineken, did put their prices up this year , for their prices up this year, for example, stonegate tenants have seen a 4.25% increase in beer and that's on top of, paying almost double what it is available on the free market. so with the margins are very tight.

you put that alongside increases that we've had in, energy costs. and whilst, you know, we all love our staff and we'd love to pay love our staff and we'd love to pay them appropriately, the forced increase in, minimum wage has had implications. we need other support. and heineken is one of the big boys. they're fine, you know, they're they're , fine, you know, they're they're, profit margins. and their shareholders, i'm sure are sitting very, very pretty, they will not be worrying about the tenants running those 60 odd pubs that they are planning to open. >> all right. well, victoria macdonald, you've spot my bank houday. macdonald, you've spot my bank holiday . i was trying to have holiday. i was trying to have a happy story, but it wasn't quite as good as it looked on the face of it. >> then get down to your local, proper local. >> absolutely. after this i will, i promise. thank you. oh, i really did try folks. i really wanted to try andshare everybody up, but it just simply hasn't worked. now somebody who's enjoying the rain in somerset today is sirjacob rees—mogg . so today is sirjacob rees—mogg. so state of the nation will be presented tonight by my former colleague martin daubney, and we served together in the european

parliament. of course, martin, it seems like many years ago, what have you got coming up on the show this evening? >> so after their electoral wipe—out at the locals, are the conservatives right wing enough? suella braverman, they say, should go in that direction . should go in that direction. andy street, who of course lost, said they must remain in the centre. andrea jenkins says it's rubbish to suggest we must go to the centre. what's the track? back to victory. should they go to the. >> damian green was on the today programme on radio four this morning, saying we're losing seats to parties on the left, therefore we mustn't move at all to the right and suella braverman. she actually said they'd be lucky to win any seats at the next election, a total wipe—out we're doing that. >> and of course today ireland is full. there was a massive protest in dublin. gb news was the only channel that was there talking to locals. live we're going to speak to one of the representatives, one of the organisers of that 50% of the irish. organisers of that 50% of the ifish.can organisers of that 50% of the irish. can you believe this? want border checks? do you remember? they never wanted any form of border. now half of them are woken up to the fact that mass migration is a huge

problem. a million migrants have gone to ireland and ireland , of gone to ireland and ireland, of course, of only five 6 million. >> and in recent times they've been coming in from belfast. not proud of that. i did think the irish were using us a bit of a scapegoat, but clearly there's a problem, isn't it funny? we could see border checks back on the island of ireland, but that's okay. there'll be no terrorism if it's done by the irish government. i guess that's what they're saying, which of course, they said they never wanted. >> but there's a big election coming in june and so are they changing their tunes? of course. sectarian politics. nigel, you called that early. we called it right as ever. we'll be covering that. >> yeah, there is far too much of it, folks. i will be back with you tomorrow evening . live with you tomorrow evening. live here on gb news at 7:00 in this very chair. but first the weather. can it get better? greg dewhurst. >> looks like things are heating up. boxt boiler is sponsors of weather on gb news. >> hello there. welcome to your latest weather for gb news. it's becoming drier over the next 24

hours, but with light winds we could see some fog patches tonight developing, and that's thanks to an area of high pressure moving in, which then stays with us for much of the week. temperatures rising, particularly by the end of the week into the weekend. highs of 24 or 25. in the best of the sunshine this evening time. still some heavy thundery showers easing away . the rain showers easing away. the rain across south—east england also moves out of the way. most places dry overnight, but that allows some mist and fog patches to form in places under the cloudier skies. temperatures holding up though around 10 or 11 celsius, so tuesday morning a grey start in places. still, the risk of some light rain and drizzle across central northern parts of england into southern scotland. but it does brighten up quite quickly for most parts of the uk. best of the sunshine across southern parts of england and wales, perhaps 1 or 2 heavy showers developing here later on in the afternoon, temperatures rising to around 20 or 21 degrees a little cooler further north under the cloud , north under the cloud, particularly northern ireland, southern scotland. here, around about 13 or 14 celsius, a murky

start once more on wednesday, but fog patches lifting and then dry for most. plenty of sunny spells, perhaps some low clouds just lingering around some coastal areas, but feeling warm in that sunshine as temperatures start to lift further and more sunshine on the way to end the week, as well as temperatures rise towards the mid 20s, a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on

gb news. >> hey. very good evening to you. i'm martin daubney, filling in for sir jacob you. i'm martin daubney, filling in for sirjacob rees—mogg on in for sir jacob rees—mogg on state of the nation. tonight. the tory party faced an electoral wipe—out over the weekend, with the party losing hundreds of seats across the country. but the outgoing conservative mayor of the west midlands, andy street , has midlands, andy street, has warned against the party's drift

to the right . warned against the party's drift to the right. but warned against the party's drift to the right . but is he warned against the party's drift to the right. but is he right? next, more protests have unfolded in ireland, with hundreds of people protesting against the increase in migrants declaring ireland is full. but will the irish government heed the concerns of their citizens, and are we seeing the rise of sectarian politics in britain? and is this what you typically expect from a victorious green party councillor? >> we will not be silent. we will raise the voice of gaza. we will raise the voice of gaza. we will raise the voice of gaza. we will raise the voice of palestine. >> hello. hello >> hello. hello >> i love my greens. plus an african king who negotiated the loan of vie artefacts has said he wants them permanently. but the british acquisition of these treasures wasn't quite what you'd expect . a state of the you'd expect. a state of the nafion you'd expect. a state of the nation starts now.

and they'll also be joined by an exuberant panel this evening. the industrial action studies degree holding former labour mp stephen pound and the conservative peer and former adviser to boris johnson, lord moylan, now remember , i want to moylan, now remember, i want to hear from you. and the email remains the same despite the person being different. mailmogg@gbnews.com. but first, it's mailmogg@gbnews.com. but first, wsfime mailmogg@gbnews.com. but first, it's time for your latest news headunes it's time for your latest news headlines and it's ray addison. >> thanks very much, martin. our top stories this evening. israel has rejected a ceasefire deal which hamas claims to have agreed with egyptian mediators, but says they're exhausting every possibility regarding negotiations. an israeli official described the proposed deal as softened and said it was a ruse intended to make israel look bad . it comes after israel look bad. it comes after israel ordered the evacuation of parts of rafah ahead of a large scale military offensive. hamas claims it meets several demands,

including the return of displaced people