gb news. >> good evening. it's 8:00. my name is tom harwood, the deputy political editor of gb news. now, while my voice may be a little hoarse from the last, well, nine hours of television that i've covered over the last two days, last night's election announcement coverage and all of the rest of it. it won't stop me from powering on, not least because there is so much to say . because there is so much to say. tonight we'll be bringing you in—depth analysis of the prime minister's decision to call a snap election. many thought he would go along and go long and wait until winter, but instead he's gone for the 4th of july. everything from reduced

inflation to reduced migration to rwanda, deportations . the pm to rwanda, deportations. the pm is banking on a bout of good news, but the question is will it pay off.7 and speaking of good news, the government will be keen to push the fact that it has reduced net migration by 10% from 2022 to 2023. but is that really a victory.7 net migration stands at 685,000. net and gross 1.2 million, a larger number than the population of glasgow . than the population of glasgow. plus, as the 80th anniversary of d—day approached at the beginning of next month, a tragic poll has found half of young adults in the uk simply don't know what it is. we'll be discussing why d—day matters and remembering d—day matters very shortly . i'm remembering d—day matters very shortly. i'm tom harwood, this is gb news 2024 general election coverage .

coverage. well, all of that to come and more. we're going to get straight to it after the news with sofia wentzel . with sofia wentzel. >> tom. thank you. good evening. i'm sophia wenzler in the gb newsroom. your top story this hour. newsroom. your top story this hour . the newsroom. your top story this hour. the prime minister has admitted flights carrying migrants will not take off before the general election in july. but he says the scheme will continue if he's re—elected. it comes as political party leaders begin six weeks of trying to win votes after it was announced polls will open on the 4th of july, kicking off the conservatives campaign this morning, rishi sunak claimed labour would do absolutely nothing to stop the boats. >> everyone else is starting to agree with my approach, which is bold. the one person that doesn't is keir starmer. that's a choice at this election . he a choice at this election. he thinks that we should just offer an amnesty to illegal migrants

to make us a soft touch of europe. it would make us a magnet for thousands of migrants coming from everywhere. so that's the choice at this election. do you think my plan is the right one.7 do election. do you think my plan is the right one? do you think i'm the one that's taking bold action to secure our borders and to stop the boats? or do you think he's going to do that? and it's pretty clear that on this issue, not only does he not share the country's values, that it's a problem. he's going to do absolutely nothing about it. >> and starting his election campaign in south—east england, labour leader sir keir starmer says that what the conservatives have done to the country is unforgivable , and voters don't unforgivable, and voters don't need to put up with it. >> rishi sunak clearly does not believe in his rwanda plan. i think that's been clear from this morning, because he's not going to get any flights off. i think that tells its own story. i don't think he's ever believed that plan is going to work. and so he's called an election early enough to have it not tested before the election. we have to deal with the terrible loss of control of the border under this government. we have to tackle the small boats that are coming

across. nobody, but nobody should be making that journey . should be making that journey. >> meanwhile, lib dems leader sir ed davey says the conservatives are out of touch for far too long, people across the united kingdom have been let down and taken for granted by this conservative government and this conservative government and this out of touch conservative party >> but with this election, we have the chance to win the change our country so desperately needs. >> in other news, police scotland has confirmed it submitted a report to the prosecution service in relation to former snp chief executive peter murrell, the husband of former first minister nicola sturgeon was charged in connection with the embezzlement of party funds last month. the prosecution service have responded, saying connected investigations of two other individuals, a man aged 72 and a 53 year old woman remain ongoing and a record number of more than

68,500 people were granted refugee status or other types of leave to remain in the year to march , home office figures show. march, home office figures show. that's the highest number for any 12 month period since records began. meanwhile the total asylum backlog still stands at more than 100,000. and for the latest stories, sign up to gb news alerts by scanning the qr code on your screen or go to gb news complex. now it's back to . back to. tom. >> good evening. it's 8:05 now. the prime minister is hardly known for being bold, but yesterday's announcement may represent a significant shift in rishi sunak's strategy . many rishi sunak's strategy. many thought the safe option was to go long, but that is to say, a winter election which would have granted more time to try and recover in the polls for the economy, perhaps to improve

further. however, the prime minister has seemingly gone for boldness over that sort of caution . the decision to call caution. the decision to call a snap election on the 4th of july represents the prime minister banking on a bout of good news, as inflation to down 2.3% normal levels. net migration figures revealed today show numbers are down 10, though still historically high, with the safety of rwanda bill passing , safety of rwanda bill passing, deportation flights are set to take off at the start of july . take off at the start of july. indeed, the question will be a key election pledge , but they key election pledge, but they may be more method to this decision than it seems. the most powerful weapon a government has going into an election is the budget. however with defence spending being increased to 2.5% of gdp and billions of pounds in compensation to victims of the post office and infected blood scandals, there doesn't seem to be much room for tax cuts. it has been speculated that because there's no room for those tax cuts, there may have been no point in having an election

after a budget that would offer voters very little indeed. but the fundamental question is, is mr sunak reading the country correctly? when people continue to struggle to pay bills , do to struggle to pay bills, do people care about inflation falling to 2.3? remember that's not prices falling, it's the rate at which they rise is rising less quickly. when the electorate have been repeatedly promised that small boats will stop, will people care about the promise of deportation? flights to rwanda ? when people were to rwanda? when people were promised a decade and a half ago by the man who is now foreign secretary, david cameron, that immigration would be brought down to the tens of thousands, will they care about a 10% reduction of net migration to the astonishing number of 685,000? indeed, even if the government could have provided tax cuts at a time when we're on track to have the highest tax burden since the second world war, would it make a dent? would the public care about a one or a

2% tax cut? well, the answer to these questions will, of course, be answered on the 4th of july. but now that the prime minister has chosen to be bold in timing, at least we'll see if the same boldness will appear in a tory party manifesto. only time will tell . let's cross now to a man tell. let's cross now to a man who might have an idea of the ideas that could make their way to a tory party manifesto. he's been following the prime minister all day. the length and breadth of the country. christopher, hope you join us now from scotland. but my goodness, you've had an odysseus journey . journey. >> hi, tom. yeah, welcome to inverness on the on the banks of a river here in inverness. we've been to nigg in, in near here, which is a big place where they factory where they manufacture wind farm sails and wind and, and wind farms in an old place where they used to make parts of oil rigs. so it's an indication of a change of the economy we're

seeing in this country over the next decades. the pm started today, and i've been with him all day for gb news, popping up regularly on our channel and writing for our website in london. went to erewash maggie throup seat around 10,000 majority that indicated a defensive seat . the tories defensive seat. the tories really need to hold that to avoid giving labour a landslide . avoid giving labour a landslide. then we flew to the vale of glamorgan, alun cairns seat a 3000 majority back in 2019. we flew from there to inverness, where i am today and tomorrow we're off to northern ireland. this is a four nation visit by the prime minister to get off on the prime minister to get off on the front foot, to show the rest of all the voters, if they're watching tv news and other channels, that he's out there governing for the whole of the uk and indicating he's on the front foot. so we've heard repeatedly we heard a q&a with him this morning at a depot near derby, erewash. as i said before , we heard him there say commit his big regret was not cutting the nhs waiting list faster. he said the rwanda flights will

take off, but after july the 4th, after the election date, the clear impression here is don't risk it, it's going well. the economy is getting better. net migration is falling, as you've been saying, down 10. the legal flights might take off. the economy is doing better. inflation is coming down. maybe even some interest rate cuts. the puzzle for many tories , the puzzle for many tories, though, is why not wait until november? like you say, why not go long and allow the benefit of those changes to take place in government? thomas, you know you've got various levers you can pull to make things happen, but instead, rather than waiting to see what would happen when he pull those levers, they might tick up a key fundamentals to make people feel better about themselves. he's put that to one side and gone for a summer election. it has worked in one way, though i should say it has discombobulated none other than the nigel farage, the gb news presenter. he's also the honorary honorary president of reform uk party. he's admitted tonight on gb news that he was only given six weeks to become an mp. that's not enough time to get the support required to win

a seat, and he couldn't risk losing for another occasion and he's often mocked for trying and failing to be an mp . so he failing to be an mp. so he hasn't stood, he's backed away. and the effect on the polls could be interesting. many people think that the reform uk's 12.14 point people think that the reform uk's12.14 point position in the polls could fall back as the kind of the, the, the air comes out of the of the reform uk balloon. a lot of people people were backing reform uk on the hope that nigel farage might return to frontline politics, that now will not happen, it seems, until 2029. if at all. >> just lastly, chris, you've been with the prime minister all day. does he seem like a rash person or is this an entirely calculated decision? and perhaps crucially , does he seem like crucially, does he seem like someone who genuinely believes he might win ? he might win? >> he's somebody trying to convince people to believe in him. he is only seeing, employees of companies. so far,

he's not out there in the street meeting random people where anything could happen. there's no jeopardy about his visits. he's. he's tiptoeing. i think , he's. he's tiptoeing. i think, into engaging with the british pubuc into engaging with the british public after surprising everybody , including us, with everybody, including us, with this, with this election. he called yesterday. he is on the front foot. he is upbeat. he's he's a man in a city. don't forget he worked for goldman sachs. he worked for a hedge fundin sachs. he worked for a hedge fund in mayfair. he's someone who's used to taking calculated risks and not showing emotion. and he's doing that. he's not giving any any giving away any new policy. we don't know how far the manifesto has developed. we do know there are 93 vacant seats now out of 600, 150. the tory party itself. mps were not ready for this election. mps are falling away today. four have resigned today saying they're not going to carry on as being mps, including damian lang, the deputy speaker. they are not filled. i do know, by the way, that david frost, who has been a champion of the right sometime critic of parts , elements of critic of parts, elements of government policy under the tories, he is not yet been

offered a safe seat. friends of his are wondering why. i understand that activists are trying to approach him directly to be their mp. there's lots of lots of drama behind the scenes as this campaign gets up and running and of course, different rules in a snap election. >> much more control from the centre about imposing candidates on local associations. christopher hope, thank you very much for joining christopher hope, thank you very much forjoining us live from much for joining us live from inverness. well, with me now is someone you might recognise who normally sits in this chair at this time . sirjacob rees—mogg this time. sirjacob rees—mogg is with me, as well as our esteemed panel gb news senior political commentator nigel nelson , the former editor of nelson, the former editor of labourlist, peter edwards and the barrister and former tory mp jerry hayes. well, jacob, let's start with you. first full day of campaigning. start with you. first full day of campaigning . and i was just of campaigning. and i was just writing down where christopher hope was saying he was following the prime minister from london to erewash, derbyshire to wales , to erewash, derbyshire to wales, in the vale of glamorgan and then up to inverness. he's done three countries in one day.

>> yeah, well, the prime minister has got lots of energy and he's well organised. >> he's got his campaign off to a flying start. this is really important. the momentum in campaigns is fundamental. and so the prime minister deserves credit for getting on with it so quickly. >> well peter edwards, former editor of the labourlist website , after all of that, that litany of places the prime minister has been to, i can count one place that, that keir starmer has been to a football stadium in kent, i did watch his speech, but i can't remember a single line . can't remember a single line. >> and your question is, does is keir starmer running a deliberately boring campaign? >> no , i don't think that. >> no, i don't think that. >> no, i don't think that. >> thank you for the invite, by the way. and it would be nice to see a few women on this panel as well. i hope they're coming up later. i think if you're ahead in the polls, you perhaps have a lower risk campaign. but i also think a pure political point is and, you know, politicians very well is in the last few weeks of a campaign, people have often

made their minds up. each side has a core script and they repeat it. and there's that old adage among anyone who's worked in westminster, it's only when you're so bored of saying it, you're so bored of saying it, you can't bear to say it any more that the general public, who might be disengaged, start to take it in. so you're going to take it in. so you're going to hear a lot of repetition. but the strategists who earn the big bucks behind the scenes will be quite pleased with that repetition. >> jerry hayes, former conservative mp. yeah. you've experienced elections in the past where things have changed rapidly and you've experienced elections where things have not changed at all. we're a day and a half in. what does this one feel like? >> well , it's rather surreal. >> well, it's rather surreal. people didn't expect that there was going to be election, although i always said there should be a summer election simply because, as jacob will know , banging on doors in know, banging on doors in october and november, they don't open the doors because it's dark and also telephone canvassing. really, you've got to look someone in the eye. you've got to say the trigger word. i'm jacob's rival, you're conservative, and if you see a

little flicker there, if they say, i need to speak to my husband, you know, they're gone. but of course, if they invite you in for a cup of tea and ask you in for a cup of tea and ask you lots of questions, you know, the liberal democrats, that's the liberal democrats, that's the way it works. >> so of course it is. it is. if n-s— >> so of course it is. it is. if it's a note for people watching at home. yeah. if there's someone they really loathe knocking on their door, invite them in, invite them in and waste their time. that's the best thing you can do if there's someone that's it was a bold gamble and that is something we don't expect of sunak unless he's looked at all the papers, he's looked at all the papers, he looks at all the information and he's a calculating man. >> now, none of these people , >> now, none of these people, starmer sunak are good on the podium, but sunak is very, very good with audiences . good with audiences. >> nigel, what do you make of that? a bold gamble. >> well, i wonder if he was forced into it, it seems to be certainly going long. seemed to be the best bet. the polls are absolutely appalling that they're showing the tories almost being wiped out. there's almost being wiped out. there's a poll up today, seven lie—in

poll that leaves 102 tory mps that was being taken yesterday as the election was being announced. so that's how bad things are looking, so what could have actually spooked him? it may be he thought the 52 letters were in the no confidence letters, and there was a danger of fighting a leadership leadership battle over the summer. >> and what we've heard from all of the plotters is that they had sort of backed off after the local elections . there was there local elections. there was there was a big plot being led by people like simon clarke, but as of last night, they were still trying, trying to put them in. >> i'm not saying this is happening. i'm saying that's the kind of conspiracy theories that are that are knocking around in the commons at the moment or simply he looked ahead and thought, there can't be a tax cutting budget as you've just said, we've got too many bills to pay the infected blood blood inquiry that will go through next week. £10 billion. we've got the subpostmasters and we haven't even addressed the waspi women yet. so there's another claim there for between 3 and

£10 billion, although much, much less justified than all of the other claims, it must be said from an objective standpoint. >> well, waspi women, my wife isn't waspi women, just moment. >> i'll get mrs. hayes on to you. >> tom harwood. please, please do. >> let's invite her onto the panel >>i panel >> i will, i will. >> i will, i will. >> my goodness, this was this was a change to the state pension ages that was advertised to people 20 years before it happened. >> they were robbed. rob dom. sorry >> they were. >> they were. >> they were tom moore. rob. let's turn, let's turn to jacob rees—mogg now, because there was this sense that perhaps the reason rishi sunak cut and run was because there was a fraying of discipline, was that if it lasted longer, then there would be sort of more plots, more message ill discipline . he had message ill discipline. he had to bring the party together and that's why he went . that's why he went. >> i don't think that's the reason for it, because as you get closer and closer to an election date, all parties become more disciplined , just in become more disciplined, just in their very nature. that's why

all the plots had faded away already. they'd gone. people had seen sense and realised that it was much too late. we had to get behind the leader back the prime minister, which, as it happens, is what i've been saying for about the last year that you can't go into an election squabbling with your leader. i think he's done it because he wants to take the political initiative, which he's succeeding in doing, and you put it perfectly. he's been in three countries. he's travelled a thousand miles, probably whilst sir keir starmer has been to a football stadium . that's football stadium. that's a pretty good comparison in his favour on day one. >> yet peter edwards, does that not suggest that rishi sunak has got something to prove ? he's got something to prove? he's darting about trying to win votes, whereas perhaps keir starmer is feeling rather more relaxed, being 20 points ahead in the polls . in the polls. >> no, i think no one in the labour party is feeling relaxed because they're ahead and they can't quite believe there's a possibility of win and you know, i'm 42 and labour's lost an awful lot in my lifetime, so no one in labour can believe how goodit one in labour can believe how good it looks. and we're all telling ourselves the one thing you can't do is relax. i also think we're all grown ups. don't

read too much into what happens in the first 24 hours, how many places they go to on a private jet or plane or whatever is totally irrelevant. the dramas are going to be. there'll be a few policy announcements, there'll be a few gaffes. there may even be a scandal, or they hope not, and possibly there might be a tv debate or two. it doesn't matter how many green patches have been to in the first 24 hours. i suspect , and first 24 hours. i suspect, and it's very boring. but it's going to be the economy, stupid. it's about the economy and that's going to decide how people vote. >> well , much going to decide how people vote. >> well, much more to discuss. but thank you to all of our panel so far, after the break, we'll be discussing the drastic net migration figures that were revealed today. but is there a twist to those numbers? stay

good evening. welcome to vote 2024. now it's 8:23. and today,

the ons released the latest immigration data. the immigration data. the immigration data. the immigration data officially for 2023. total net migration to the year. 2023. total net migration to the year . was 685,000 people. that's year. was 685,000 people. that's net migration. it represents a drop in 10% from the year before. these figures are historically unprecedented. a world away from david cameron's promise to cut net migration to the tens of thousands. well, i'm joined now by the research director at the centre for migration and control, robert bates . and of course, my panel bates. and of course, my panel remains with me. gb news. senior political commentator nigel nelson and the barrister, former tory mp jerry hayes, as well. well let's turn to you, robert. this is a huge number the government will be saying. however, don't look to 2023 where we have a full year of data, look to 2024 only a few months, but huge indicators that

we're seeing much more than 10% falls. >> yes. well, look to 2024 where the number is expected to come in would be round about a million. so, you know, we'll see a fall of about 300,000. i think the government's estimates of this plan, you're talking gross figures rather than gross figures, of course. yeah. it's the growth that matters because there's so much more of an implication in terms of the economic makeup that does happen when migration is replacing those that are emigrating as well. so we need to look at the growth figure when it comes to this issue. so the government's attempts to kind of spin a 10% drop from a staggeringly high, as you say, a record high figure , is peddling against the stream. to be perfectly honest, i think what we're what we're seeing is a government that's realised they've inherited a system from new labour that that was running away from them under their watch. the numbers entering the uk is almost increased fourfold, i think from between 2012 and 2024 we've seen a staggering , staggering a staggering, staggering increase in the number of people, and that is partly predominantly because of the decisions taken by the johnson administration when we had when

we had back control of our, of our of our borders after after leaving the european union, we were promised, you know, tighter immigration, tens of thousands. and this is what we've got six, 685,000. >> and yet one of the reasons why the, gross migration is very, very different from net migration, particularly this year or 2023, three years on, from 2020, of course, 2020, we had virtually no migration at all, for obvious reasons. when we look at international students, which is a huge proportion of the make up of our net migration figures, you therefore had a year where no one came or went, a lower number than usual . one came or went, a lower number than usual. more one came or went, a lower number than usual . more people one came or went, a lower number than usual. more people come in the next year. it takes three years for a university degree to be completed. we're starting to see those numbers now filter out a lot of the people leaving in terms of these net figures will be recent arrivals will be former university students. you're right. >> a lot of them are university students. but let's not forget

that the government seems to be doing all it can to stymie that outflow. they introduced the graduate visa route. they promised they'd be clamping down on that. and then obviously david cameron has stepped in and told rishi sunak what to do and called the shots. so the, the idea that the government's plan that it introduced in december 2023, i'm sorry to keep banging on about it, but if the conservative party are going to send to their election campaign around the idea that they're bringing down migration to anywhere near sensible numbers because of those meagre, meagre proposals that they introduced in december, then hang on. >> miga, miga proposals 76% drop in social care visa applications 79% drop in dependent funded sponsored study visa applications 58% drop on dependent health care visa applications. these aren't figures from the full year from last year because these policies came in in january. last year because these policies came in in january . these are came in in january. these are significant numbers, though. >> well, are they though, tom? >> well, are they though, tom? >> because again, we go back to the top, top line figures. we've got 1.2 million people in the country at the moment. the government's own figures admit

they can only bring it down by 300,000. i mean, even, you know, i don't know if you've got it written down there that that culminates in 900,000 people still entering the country, the country a lot of those people, as you say, are coming as students. a lot of people now seem to be using that as a back door to gain, whether it be graduate work visas or come here as a student and then work whilst they're here and that is essentially a conservative proposal. that is something that the conservative party introduced under theresa may. they set out with the target to get the number of international students in the uk to 600,000. they wanted that by 2030, they got it in 2021 and the number keeps going up. >> it is extraordinary. i've always find it odd that students, especially students who study full time, don't work and live in student accommodation are included in these numbers. why do we count international students as if they're normal migrants? >> well, because they still, let's not forget they still put pressure on public services. they still have to use gps facilities. they still have to use the nhs, they still use road networks, they still use public infrastructure. so it's not as if we've got a kind of ghost class of immigration here where they're kind of not putting any

burden on the taxpayer. so of course we need to include that for. >> well, let's talk now to nigel nelson. of course, historically high migration. but the labour party isn't saying all that much different. what is the labour party's proposal in all of this? >> well, i mean, that is to use the point system better when it comes down to bringing people into the country. when you talk about the international students, i mean, the tories have been all over the place on this one, as you just said, that they, they were the ones who encouraged the idea of 600,000 students by 2030, giving them various breaks, like their relatives could come in that they could have two years, a two year work visa after they finished their studies . then we finished their studies. then we tookit finished their studies. then we took it all away again, now the net result of that's going to be that, tuition fees will have to go up. at the moment, they're under £10,000, but with 4 in 10 students are are from abroad . students are are from abroad. and if we take them all away, that problem and then we mentioned yes, maybe, maybe tuition fees would go up or jerry hayes, maybe bad

universities would have to close i >> -- >> how lam >> how would you define a bad university? >> well, we have the time. we have things every year, jerry. i'm sure they are . i'm sure they are. >> but you see, nigel has actually hit the nail on the head here. on the one hand, we're trying as a government to get deals with india and india saying, well, you know, we can do a trade deal unless we get them all visas sorted out. so what do you do about that bit of a problem? china, china gives a lot of money to universities. now sometimes it's wrong money. we've got to be very careful. yeah i accept that. but as nigel says, there is going to be a consequence of all of this. if you say, right, we're going to really cut back the number of students from abroad, it is less money coming into the less money coming in, and there's going to be universities in trouble . be universities in trouble. >> let's get the thoughts now of jonathan porter's. of course, the economist, professor of economics and public policy at king's college london. jonathan, this is a big issue. every political party is saying the numbers are too high, yes. but as you quite rightly said, the

numbers are falling very steeply and, the i'm afraid the person you were interviewing just now simply doesn't understand how the system works or the data . the system works or the data. you're quite correct. there's been a very sharp fall and indeed , the chair of the indeed, the chair of the migration advisory committee, who advises the government on this, brian bell, said that there was indeed a fighting chance that migration would be down to 150 or 200,000 a year, now forecasts are very uncertain, but there's absolutely no doubt that migration is now falling very fast. you know , the government, fast. you know, the government, what number do you expect it to be in 2024? >> because 2023, it was 10% down on 2022. when you say very fast, what sort of level are we talking about, i mean, i think, you know, forecasting migration is extremely difficult. we usually get it wrong , i would if usually get it wrong, i would if i had to bet, i would bet between 250 and 300. but i'm quite likely to be wrong . quite likely to be wrong. >> jonathan paul says if the

polls are right and the labour party win the next election and change literally no policy at all in how we deal with migration , keir starmer will be migration, keir starmer will be thanking his magic genie. he's the luckiest man in politics. he will not have had to change a single thing and this time next yean single thing and this time next year, prime minister keir starmer will say, look, we slashed migration more than in half and he won't have done a sausage. >> yes and no. of course, at the same time, rachel reeves will also have to say, unfortunately we have about a £15 billion hole in the budget because of that falling migration, and we have a workforce crisis in the social care sector, which means that either we'll have to put migration back up again or and arguably which would be a good thing, we'll have to raise taxes even more in order to pay care workers a lot better so that they don't all most of these changes, jonathan, most of these changes, jonathan, most of these changes that came in in january are about dependence.

>> people that might well take more from the states than they contribute. therefore, if we have fewer dependents coming, there's fewer people who are using the schools using state services. >> you're making you're making two mistakes there, tom. first of all, we call them dependents because that's the nature of the visa. but actually we know that a huge proportion of actually work because the number employment growth since the pandemic . pandemic. >> but if you work on a low salary, you do still take a lot of state support. >> no, actually. and again, the migration advisory committee pointed this out. young people, who work even on a low salary because they're really not a burden on the nhs, they're obviously not a burden on the pension system. >> they can't unless they get ill, but they can't claim benefits because the rules prohibit that actually , even on prohibit that actually, even on a relatively low salary, those people are contributing to gdp and actually they're contributing to tax revenue. >> you can again read the obr report about this, though. first

of all, lots of dependents work. and second, even the ones who don't because they have to be supported by the people who brought them in. you know, they're not dependent on public funds. that's they're not dependent on public funds . that's the rule. even the funds. that's the rule. even the money gets spent here. so the economy tends to benefit. so, as i said, the obr, you know, we all employment growth since the pandemic has been driven by migration . we've got a million migration. we've got a million extra people working. they're all from outside the european union. we have no more brits working because of course we have this problem with sickness and disability. so, you're quite right that keir starmer made on one hand be very lucky and that he will almost certainly be if he will almost certainly be if he wins, be able to claim that he's brought immigration down by a lot in his first year in office. on the other hand, the impact on the public finances and potentially on public services like health and social care , may be a very serious care, may be a very serious problem for that government as well. >> well, that analysis is absolutely fascinating. expecting around 250,000 this

yean expecting around 250,000 this year, down from in 2022, more than 750,000. i mean, that is the most incredible drop that is likely to happen. of course, a forecast and no economist can ever forecast anything precisely, correctly or completely. take your point on that. jonathan porter's really thank you for joining that. jonathan porter's really thank you forjoining us and thank you for joining us and talking through that. and robert bates, before as well, really, really appreciate both of your perspectives . coming up, dozens perspectives. coming up, dozens of bills are set to collapse as parliament is prorogued. but what does that mean? we'll be getting into what they are after

break. good evening. it's 8:38. now, this friday, parliament will be prorogued. no more business will take place the following thursday. thursday, the 30th of may. parliament will be

dissolved. there will be no mps in existence . parliament will in existence. parliament will formally not exist . that's all formally not exist. that's all formally not exist. that's all for the election period until a new parliament convenes after the 4th of july. well, ministers, civil servants , local ministers, civil servants, local authorities will also be required. they are already required. they are already required to exercise great, great caution in making announcements or decisions that might affect the election campaign that is known as purdah. well, all of this put together means that the government has a bit of a problem . there are currently problem. there are currently dozens of bills going through both houses of parliament. currently in progress but not yet completed . it means we're in yet completed. it means we're in for an almighty rush. yes, both. today and tomorrow in parliament. speed legislation is taking place now. what does that mean? there are various bills that will be dropped by the government that will disappear.

there'll be others that perhaps get less scrutiny than they ordinarily do and are rushed through. well, back with me is jacob rees—mogg. now you're a former leader of the house, a constitution expert. this is a torrid time for government departments deciding what goes in the bin and what gets rushed through. >> it's very interesting. today we finished off the finance bill and the snp actually voted against it on third reading. had they succeeded, there would be no income tax because the income tax is an annual charge. >> finally, for the first time since the temporary tax was imposed in the wars, i was quite tempted to rebel and support the snp and abolish income tax. >> but i think that might have been a little irresponsible. so you're absolutely right. you described it very well and also the right concern varne that bills falling is not the serious problem . they can be dealt with problem. they can be dealt with by an incoming government. what worries me is the lack of scrutiny so bad legislation will get through at the last minute

that nobody's really thought through properly. nobody really cares about , through properly. nobody really cares about, and it'll go through on the nod without having the proper sequence of review and revision that it ought to get. let's start with the good news. the bonkers smoking prohibition bill, where in 30 years time, someone who's 50 will be precluded from buying a cigarette, but someone who's 51 will be able to buy one that's been thrown on the dustbin, although both parties say that they'll introduce it in the next session, also a bill that would have required venues to have terror action plans , to have terror action plans, your local church or your local pub having a terror action plan. >> that's terrible. >> that's terrible. >> bill and i was trying to water that down when i was still in government, because that would have put an obligation on every church to have a plan in case it were attacked in a way that parish churches simply don't have the resources to do. >> all of their staff, especially pubs. most pubs can squeeze in more than 100 people,

or many, many pubs can, and it seems like a very, very odd imposition to register all of this stuff with the council for, i mean, how likely is it that there will be a terror attack and how likely is it that the plan will be stuck to in the event of a terror attack? >> it's a really bad, disproportionate piece of legislation, but again, both parties are backing it in the next session. well, let's see, because moving into a new session allows people to drop really silly commitments that may have a popular backing. and the thing to remember is that , the thing to remember is that, there's a difference between an idea that makes good legislation and something that people are concerned about. not everything that people concerned about can be turned into good law. and you've got to make laws that are effective and can be implemented rather than just being an expression of people's concern. >> now , one of the bills that is >> now, one of the bills that is going through is the exoneration of the postmasters legislation that has cross—party support. >> it will be expedited. i suppose that is a good thing. >> that's absolutely right that that was going through rapidly

anyway, and it's merely allowing for their convictions to be set aside. so they are not guilty of what they've been charged for and to pay them compensation. and that's a very straightforward, simple bit of legislation in. so expediting thatis legislation in. so expediting that is good news. >> too complicated bits of legislation both in the levelling up department but promoted by michael gove. it appears that one of these pieces of legislation will be dropped and one will be taken forward. i'm talking about the leasehold reform bill, abolition bill and the renters reform bill. it seems that leasehold will go through, but renters reform will stop. explain what that means. >> that's exactly what i've heard. the renters reform is the one with complicated rules to make it harder for landlords, and actually will reduce supply in the rental market. >> fixed term rental. >> fixed term rental. >> abolished fixed term rental agreement so that people couldn't come to sensible commercial agreements between themselves. the leasehold reform

is also a problematic piece of legislation, because it interferes in contracts that people have freely entered into and know what they're doing. >> the backers of it will say that margaret thatcher supported leasehold reform. >> margaret thatcher was absolutely wonderful, but she's been dead for quite a long time and she was prime minister now over 30 years ago and saying that she was in favour of something that may have been entirely suitable in 1980s in a different context. that is not the same as saying she would have backed this. >> so you're worried about this bill being rushed through? >> yeah, i am, because i don't think it's a good piece of legislation, and i think it needed proper scrutiny in the house of lords to tease out some of the underlying attacks on private property, which is a fundamental part of our constitution. >> well, let's broaden this discussion out now. >> gerry hayes, as a barrister now and as a former mp, bad law m atters. matters. >> well, of course it does. dangerous dogs. do you remember what happened? you don't leave a child at a time, i'm afraid. >> 1992. >> 1992. >> wasn't it something like that? >> yes, because there was. it was, it was john major. i voted

for it. god knows why. because i did. but it was bad law. guns as well. do you remember after dunblane ? yes. dunblane? yes. >> legislation in haste banning guns to the extent that the british olympic olympic pistol shooting team is not allowed to train in britain , it goes back train in britain, it goes back to what jacob was saying was absolutely right. >> there has to be proper scrutiny because you think it's a good idea, because you've seen it on the front page of the daily mail. doesn't mean to say it's going to be good law, nigel. >> there is going to be so much horse trading, not just for, the last however many hours that this parliament is actually sitting for, tomorrow. being this grand scramble to pass legislation. but perhaps more importantly, what goes into party's manifestos as well. >> yes. and we're always going to see those within the next couple of weeks and see see what's there, and what we need there is, is the kind of detail that we haven't had at the moment. and i think when you're

talking about, in a sense, they are similar things, bad law , are similar things, bad law, causes unintended consequences, even good law can can cause unintended consequences. when we get down to the manifestos, they've got to have some detail there which is, lacking at the moment. so we don't have any unintended consequences from that. taking labour's manifesto, for instance, their tax policies , i want to see in some detail there because at the moment the people they're taxing are people who actually don't have to pay tax. so if they're taxing private schools, i'm in favour of that , parents can withdraw of that, parents can withdraw their children from those schools if they're going to extend the tax on non—doms non—doms can leave the country. now, all the indications are they won't only 100 non—doms out of 26,000 are likely to leave, according to the most recent study. parents probably won't withdraw their kids from school , withdraw their kids from school, but they've got to spell out how they've got to that position. >> but there could be some black holes there if those dynamic

effects take place. >> well, and the tory manifesto will be exactly the same thing. >> blair's pledge card in 1997 promised to not raise income tax. national insurance or vat. keir starmer's pledge card makes no such promise. >> no, the in fairness , the 1997 >> no, the in fairness, the 1997 pledge plans was actually not terribly ambitious, but tony blair achieved all five items on them. >> well , on them. >> well, on that them. >> well , on that note, let's, >> well, on that note, let's, have a quick change of tone. >> we'll be discussing a poll that suggests 1 in 5 people think we should stop commemorating d—day. think we should stop commemorating d—day . that

next. good evening. it's ten minutes to nine. now for something completely different. is britain's youth too apathetic to

commemorate d—day? well, according to a survey by the commonwealth war graves commission, 1 in 5 think we should stop commemorating d—day. and a further 22% of 18 to 24 year olds felt that the events we hold to pay respect to those who died in the world wars are no longer needed . well, the no longer needed. well, the spirit of the nation is in its history . if we don't understand history. if we don't understand our history, what do we have in common? how do we know where we come from? i'm joined now by the historian and broadcaster tessa dunlop, and i want to start on on that point, people who think that we should stop remembering, stop commemorating . stop commemorating. >> it's quite a small proportion that think we should stop commemorating. i was actually in colchester today . god, what a colchester today. god, what a lovely city. it's the last city that the queen signed off, to become a new city. indeed, indeed. become a new city. indeed, indeed . and they have the most indeed. and they have the most storming war memorial erected in the mid 1920s. and i went to

visit it with a afghanistan war veteran, a female, and she said, no, there's a commonality of experience as a soldier. doesn't matter when you're first world war, a roman soldier, or today a contemporary soldier. but she says what did get her was that she doesn't get recognised as a veteran. there she is, 35 year old woman, and we have this idea that all veterans are very old and served in world war ii. the great generation . and i think great generation. and i think what we've done is we've cherry picked our history. what we've done is we've cherry picked our history . and actually picked our history. and actually that's off putting for the young. if they feel that the establishment is piling in on the idea of d—day, and it's therefore the right thing to celebrate , there's almost celebrate, there's almost questions to be asked around how we tell the story, because you could say d—day is massive, huge, biggest amphibious campaign of all time liberated europe. but actually, what we're less good at saying is we went late later than stalin wanted. we got to berlin late. russia was on the front foot and we went to war for poland. but at

the end of the war, poland was on the wrong side of the iron curtain. and who are we fighting now? russia. so in fact, it wasn't a big bow tied at the end. v—e day wasn't v—e day for the countries of eastern europe. >> no, not not until 1990. but, but i suppose the second world war is such a totemic moment in the story of this country. yeah. sort of how we've defined ourselves in a post empire age. this is our this is our story, our sort of origin. if you think of several dates, probably 1066, maybe 1588, maybe 1688, 89 and 1944, a lot of people would say, what about trafalgar or waterloo? of course . waterloo? of course. >> yeah. arguably bigger. yeah. but so we all cherry pick our dates. but you've got to be careful not to tell the entire country's narrative through one set of dates or one set of stories . and i think we're in stories. and i think we're in danger of doing not important for young people to recognise that. >> there was a time not that long ago that the entire

eurasian landmass was under one form or other of dictatorial control . america was control. america was uninterested at that time, and britain alone stood free against authoritarianism in this war, holding that torch of liberty. and if we had bucked out, then in in may 1940, the world would be very, very different today. >> it would have been very different. you're right. we had a big empire attached to it. i think it's always worth bearing in mind. it wasn't just little britain, it was imperial britain , that france had. you're right. been been occupied. what? you're about to cut me off. i'm about to cut you off. >> you need to plug your event before you leave, because i think it's nuanced, but i don't think it's nuanced, but i don't think we should undermine d—day. >> imperial war museum are taking me to the churchill war rooms. please join me on the 4th of june, 4th of june to talk more about d—day, 4th of june, churchill war rooms. >> well, that's it from us today . up next is patrick christys, by the way. it's sunny in somerset. >> a brighter outlook with boxt

solar sponsors of weather on . gb news. >> hello. very good evening . >> hello. very good evening. here's your latest gb news weather update brought to you by the met office . southern areas the met office. southern areas will stay mostly dry as we go through the end of the week, but it's a wetter story further north because the same area of low pressure that has brought all the rain we've had through the last day or so is lingering across the uk, so we can expect further outbreaks of rain as we go through the end of today. overnight and into friday. some of the rain will be a little bit on the heavy side, but it is definitely easing further south. it's going to stay largely dry overnight and there will be some clear skies under which it could turn a bit fresh, a bit chilly perhaps for some of us to start first thing tomorrow morning. but on the whole, once the sunshine gets going, temperatures should rise quite quickly. if we take a look at what's going to happen first thing tomorrow morning. and yes, it's a bit of a cloudy, damp start across many northern parts, particularly across a big chunk of scotland cloud and

outbreaks of rain . none of it outbreaks of rain. none of it looks particularly heavy but could cause some further issues for areas affected by the heavy rain we've seen recently . rain we've seen recently. perhaps some brightness across western parts of scotland. but across northern ireland, much of england and wales are fairly cloudy and a little bit damp. start the best chance of any sunshine first thing tomorrow morning will be across southern parts and to be honest, here's where we're likely to see the best of the sunshine as we go through tomorrow. as a result of the sunshine though, we could see a few showers popping up, but it is generally going to be dner but it is generally going to be drier towards southern parts , a drier towards southern parts, a little bit cloudier and a bit wetter further north. some outbreaks of rain, perhaps the odd heavy shower here but not as wet as it has been recently. the temperatures will be near normal for the time of year, feeling warm in any sunshine. in fact, across northern parts it will feel markedly less fresh than it has done recently as we go into saturday. perhaps a bit of a chilly start for some of us, but it does look like the driest, sunniest day of the long weekend. a few showery outbreaks developing, particularly towards eastern parts. but on sunday we

are expecting some more wet weather to push its way in. some of that could be pretty heavy at times and more showers perhaps on monday. >> two looks like things are heating up . boxt boilers heating up. boxt boilers sponsors of weather on

gb news. >> airs 9 pm. on patrick christys. and it's the first proper day of the general election campaign. and it's all going off. >> they're all a load of prats. >> they're all a load of prats. >> can you spot the prime minister's gaffe in wales? >> looking forward to all the football. >> meanwhile, storm is out stroking baby's head. suzie targets the southeast. >> decline and chaos continuing under tories or rebuilding our country under labour. >> but can you spot why their big campaign launch video had to get pulled? nigel farage will

not stand as a candidate.