lord goodman, and the gb peer lord goodman, and the gb news senior political commentator nigel nelson, plus a host of other experts and head honchos. all that's coming up after your very latest headlines with tatiana sanchez . with tatiana sanchez. >> tom, thank you very much. the top stories this hour. sir keir starmer set out labour's manifesto today, reaffirmed his commitment to no rises to income tax or national insurance. the labour leader put economic growth and stability at the core of his party's plan, promising to end what he called a desperate era of gestures and gimmicks . desperate era of gestures and gimmicks. back on the campaign trail in crewe, he rejected rishi sunak suggestion of higher taxes and said britain will do better under labour. >> it is a manifesto that rejects fundamentally the proposition that britain can't do better than this, that we have to go on in the way we've been going on in the last 14 years. it is a rejection of that

. britain can do better, britain will do better . and with our will do better. and with our manifesto and a mandate for a labour government , we will take labour government, we will take our country forward and that will be felt in every community across the country . across the country. >> the liberal democrats described labour's manifesto as a gamble on economic growth that fails to set out how wealth will be shared more evenly. sir ed davey joined his party's candidate for tunbridge wells, mike martin, at an obstacle course this afternoon. he said that trickle down economics will not fix broken britain. >> it's suggesting £9 billion of investment to rescue our nhs , investment to rescue our nhs, and we're talking about investment to help the poorest investment to help the poorest in our society, and we want to make sure that we've got the capital investment in social homes in the fight against climate change and making sure the nature crisis is dealt with. so we have an ambitious policy package in the liberal

democrats. and on top of that, we're the only party saying that we're the only party saying that we need to reform our politics. >> and all g7 countries have agreed to continue funding a loan package for ukraine worth nearly £40 billion. european commission president ursula von der leyen said the funds would be backed by proceeds from immobilised russian assets. prime minister rishi sunak held a bilateral meeting with ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy today . mr sunak has zelenskyy today. mr sunak has called the funding package game changing . us president joe biden changing. us president joe biden and vladimir zelenskyy have signed a ten year bilateral security agreement aimed at bolstering ukraine's defence against russia's invaders. >> us collectively, this is a powerful set of actions and it will create a stronger foundation for ukraine's success. two and a half years ago, putin unleashed a brutal war in ukraine and spent a horrifying. a deal for the ukrainian people. they're so brave and incredible. it also been a test for the world. would we stand with ukraine? would we stand for sovereignty , freedom

stand for sovereignty, freedom and against tyranny? the united states, the g7 and countries around the world have consistently answered the question by saying , yes, we question by saying, yes, we will. we will say it again, yes, again and again and again. >> for the latest stories, sign up to gb news alerts by scanning the qr code on your screen or go to gb news. com slash alerts. now it's back to . now it's back to. tom. >> good evening. this is state of the nation. now first of all, before i get into the regular programme tonight, some news has just broken and that news is a new poll. it was commissioned by the times and the sunday times and carried out by yougov . this and carried out by yougov. this poll shows, for the first time in polling history , the reform in polling history, the reform party has overtaken the conservative party in the polls . conservative party in the polls. that's right, 19% for the reform

party. 18% for the conservative party. 18% for the conservative party and 37% for the labour party and 37% for the labour party are larger than 20 points lead. but reform one one percentage point ahead of the conservatives now, it must be said there's a health warning to this. that is within the margin of error on this poll, but it is a symbolic moment in this general election campaign . we'll general election campaign. we'll have more on that later in the programme . but now, today, sir programme. but now, today, sir keir starmer announced labour's manifesto. and one thing is clear, sir keir wants you to believe that the labour party has changed. but is this true? is the labour party now pro—growth , pro—business and pro pro—growth, pro—business and pro wealth? well, let's take a look at the data with both the conservatives and labour's manifestos, we can compare the projections of the overall tax burden under both parties . now burden under both parties. now the graph here shows tax as a share of gdp by the end of the

decade. current forecasts project the overall tax burden to reach 37% of gdp under a conservative government the tax burden is slightly less than those current forecasts it's expected to increase nonetheless to 36.7, the highest in 70 years. but with the labour party's announcement today of billions in new taxes, labour's overall tax burden is projected to reach an all time high, not just 70 years higher than any time since 1688, when records began. time since 1688, when records began . the projection comes in began. the projection comes in at 37.4% of gdp. now, time and time again, we hear from both leaders that taxes would not go up under their leadership , or up under their leadership, or indeed that they might come down. both of these scenarios assume £25 billion in spending cuts, a new era of austerity across various departments baked in under jeremy hunt's latest in underjeremy hunt's latest budget. now, despite both of these parties seeming to commit to these cuts in their plans ,

to these cuts in their plans, the institute of fiscal studies has called them fictitious cuts . has called them fictitious cuts. few seriously believe either party would push ahead with those budget reductions. so might it be the case that we're set for a further £25 billion in tax rises over and above the tax rises that have already been announced? where might those taxes come from? well, perhaps a 2018 pamphlet from rachel reeves might give us a clue. she called for a radical overhaul of the tax system to raise get this over £20 billion a year. it all is starting to add up. the pamphlet went on to call for increasing council tax, introducing a landlord tax, an attack on pensions, a tax on land, an increase in inheritance tax and more taxes on stocks, shares and investment . tax and more taxes on stocks, shares and investment. but it wasn't just 2018. as recently as 2021, rachel reeves said she wanted to hike taxes on those who get their incomes from stocks and shares and buy to let

properties. might it be that when labour says it doesn't want to raise taxes on working people , it will instead raise over 20 billion in new taxes on those stocks? those shares and those homes and those assets . well, homes and those assets. well, i'm delighted to be joined now by a former special adviser to tony blair, darren murphy and darren. i'm sure you'll share my scepticism here because the plans for both the conservatives and the labour party pretend there'll be lots of spending cuts. do you believe them ? cuts. do you believe them? >> i think that the labour manifesto that was unveiled today makes it pretty clear that, vat , national insurance, that, vat, national insurance, and income tax won't rise, under and income tax won't rise, under a labour government. and so i think we should start from that basis. but the projections that you've just given give the game away for the conservatives, i would say in that they demonstrate that on any one of your projections, the tax gdp

take is in is forecast to, to rise, the nonsense that we've seen this week, and i think you're seeing it played out in the polls, is a whole series of claims about, about taxes, a whole series of claims about tax cuts . and in reality, i don't cuts. and in reality, i don't think you can make a decision in a general election in some sort of dutch auction about a tiny proportion of government spending, you know, even on your projections. tom you're talking about, what, 0.3 of £1 billion? i mean, today , when you look at i mean, today, when you look at the tax take that's being suggested in the labour proposals in the manifesto, most of those are about closing tax loopholes that exist from non—doms and from, from other tax loopholes. i think it's what, 5.2 billion? so i think what, 5.2 billion? so i think what you can see is that the tax

take projections are a little bit in the eye of the beholder. the tories claim that they're not raising taxes, but in fact we know they are the labour manifest makes absolutely clear that there's no intention to raise income tax or national insurance or vat. that's not true though, is it, darren? >> because of course, both the conservatives and the labour party have committed to freezing tax thresholds through to 2028. that means if unless inflation is zero, there will be effective tax rises under both the conservatives and the labour party due to the phenomenon of fiscal drag. now the conservatives are mitigating that for pensioners, they've promised to raise thresholds so that the state pension is never taxed. and indeed they've promised to cut national insurance. so people in work will also get a bit of relief on that baked in tax rise. the labour party is doing neither. so the labour party will see working people taxed more, not less. >> no. i think what you need to look at is that your projection

makes it clear that we have historically high levels of taxation at the moment. >> when you say no, do you mean that labour has not committed to those frozen tax thresholds? >> it's absolutely clear that and rachel reeves has set out, all the tax plans in detail, and it makes it and makes it absolutely clear that no national insurance rise, no vat rise, no income tax rise. >> thresholds, however, are frozen . frozen. >> well, i think part of the problem is that the way the shambles of liz truss's period in power and the way the tories have governed for the last 14 years, has meant that the tax take is too high. i think it would be far better to grow the economy and to and to ensure that our gdp grows instead of our tax rates growing . and yet our tax rates growing. and yet and yet. no. hold on, hold on. >> both parties show that tax take going up the labour party, the highest ever , was supposed the highest ever, was supposed to be talking about the manifesto. >> i think it's right that there are a whole range of, of , of tax

are a whole range of, of, of tax avoidance that we loopholes that we close. i think it's right that we start to say that working class kids have should be have as many opportunities as their parents have as many ambitions for their children. i think we do need to talk about how we improve the health service. i think we do need to talk about how we, grow public services . but talk about how we, grow public services. but i think there's a question of honesty here. >> no, no, i'm being honest. >> no, no, i'm being honest. >> i think the difference in this manifesto from previous manifestos, including, frankly, the blair manifesto from manifestos from 97 onwards, is that the focus is absolutely on wealth creation, not really on distribution, and that the way to distribute wealth and opportunity is to create more wealth , create more wealth, create more opportunities. and i think that is at the heart of where this manifesto is about. it's a complete change from there is some supply side reform, but ultimately on labour's own numbers, even ignoring the 25

billion of fictitious cuts. >> that's the words of the ifs, not the words of me even ignonng not the words of me even ignoring that 25 billion. this takes us to the highest tax burden in recorded history . burden in recorded history. >> well, that's because we're we're going to take tax from people who are currently avoiding it. we're going to take tax from people who like non—doms, who have made a conscious effort to try to avoid paying conscious effort to try to avoid paying the tax for the price of living in this country. so, of course, the tax burden will rise on people who are avoiding tax. of course the tax burden will rise, will rise for people who don't pay it. what i'm saying is the country as a whole, darren murphy, i'm afraid we have run to the end of the segment, but thank you so much for putting your case across. >> so spiritedly really appreciate your time here on state of the nation. thank you. i'm joined now by gb news political editor christopher hope, because , christopher, hope, because, christopher, i want to talk to you first of all about this breaking news that there is this new poll from yougov showing for the first time reform one point ahead of the conservative party. your thoughts tom?

>> that's right. yeah. joining us in the spin room before the seven way, debate starting on 8:30 here, and i'll be back with you for all the spin room action from 10 pm. but before that starts, some big news in terms of this election campaign, a yougov poll for the times tonight says that we have crossover. what that means is that reform uk is now the second biggest party in the polls. there are 19 points, one point ahead of the conservative party on 18 labour, miles ahead on 37 points. this is a moment which many people have been fearing on the tory side. they're worried about nigel farage's resurgent reform uk party since he became leader about ten days ago, and now they are the second biggest party in the polls. this will further depress tories as they try and stave off what they admit would be a labour supermajority on july the 4th. >> now, chris, that is a pretty profound moment. of course, it

will differ in different seats, and this is within the margin of error. but of course, it is a symbolic moment in this campaign. let's quickly turn to the labour party, because i've noficed the labour party, because i've noticed you've been thumbing your way through the labour party manifesto , so. and you've party manifesto, so. and you've been reading it with such meticulous detail. you noticed a spelling error ? spelling error? >> yeah, it was border border command with one m on the same page. there was another spelling mistake. i mean, i only pointed out in jest, really ? because, out in jest, really? because, you know, we all make spelling mistakes even in our world. tom but it seemed to annoy or annoy people on twitter that we saw it and made it made a joke that there should be spelling lessons. maybe rather than brushing or brushing your teeth. lessons? tom, if labour formed the next the next government, but no, i think i think it was, you know, it was a workey a work a day manifesto . it did what it a day manifesto. it did what it had to do, which is not to jeopardise the party's staggering lead in the polls . staggering lead in the polls. nothing spectacular, nothing

exciting. it's what they wanted to do. and we are now exactly 21 days into the campaign . with 21 days into the campaign. with 21 days into the campaign. with 21 days to go. it's half time. essentially, if it's a football match, it's half time and the tories are down four nil and they've got to win five four. they've got to score five goals without any reply from labour in the back end of this campaign. it's all about shoe leather or or tyre tyre being tyres being worn out on roads , getting worn out on roads, getting around the country and being energetically trying to get that message out there. but i mean, you know, frankly, i think there's a feeling in the country of what of a need for change. and even that is recognised by top tories now. >> yeah, i know it's a remarkable but, but chris, you sat down with keir starmer earlier today and there was one moment that i think lots of people will have seen. it has done the rounds, certainly here in westminster it's become a bit of a moment and that's of course, when you referenced, keir starmer talking about his father, what his father did for a living and the audience

reaction, i believe we've got a clip. let's have a listen. >> so when someone laughed last night , my dad >> so when someone laughed last night, my dad would have turned in his grave. >> it was a snobbishness towards your dad. >> do you think i don't know what caused someone to laugh? no, but if you're laughing at someone because they work in a factory, then that is the one thing that i think had a massive impact on someone like my dad. the disrespect. and it's in me. you can see i'm angry about it. you can see i'm angry about it. you are angry . you are angry. >> do you think that the audience was laughing at keir starmer's father because of his job, or who he was, or at his father at all, or is keir starmer overinterpreting this? might it have been just when you hear a politician say the same phraseology in the same way, again and again and again, it does. it does become comedic. >> well, tom, i'll be honest with you, that's what i thought. and in fact, i asked the question because i was trying to get to the point that maybe voters are getting bored of you saying the same thing , that your saying the same thing, that your dad's a toolmaker and he worked

in a factory , and i was trying in a factory, and i was trying to get to the point. you change the script. sir keir starmer. that's what that was where i was going with the question, and i was completely blindsided, frankly, by his answer. now, i was sitting across from him at the back of the back of that battle bus, the red leather battle bus, the red leather battle bus, the red leather battle bus, and his eyes were welling up and he just said, no, no, no, let me finish here. and he he said he said in terms that when he grew up, his dad was mocked by people for saying he worked in a factory. his dad stopped saying it in polite company. he stopped going out. he withdrew into himself because he felt that people didn't respect him. in the part of surrey he lived in, and that is keir starmer's lived experience of people laughing about his dad. and i think he probably thought that at school . i think thought that at school. i think he probably fought it in the early part of his life. and so when he hears it now on the political stage, even though he's in his early 60s, it cut him to the core. and he said so. and i think you and i know, i think we know why people were laughing. they were laughing because of the familiarity with

that expression by keir starmer. but that doesn't make it wrong for him to say what he said . for him to say what he said. >> no, it doesn't make it wrong for him to take it one way. even if it perhaps was given in another. i do wonder if, if keir starmer perhaps is starting to sound a little theresa may ish, andifs sound a little theresa may ish, and it's only because , rishi and it's only because, rishi sunak also does that it's not particularly picked up upon . but particularly picked up upon. but christopher hope, really, really fascinating interview that you conducted with the leader of his majesty's loyal opposition earlier today , look forward to earlier today, look forward to what you have more as the evening progresses. christopher hope there our political editor. well after the break, i'll be speaking to yet another one of tony blair's former advisors, as well as my most intellectual panel well as my most intellectual panel, plus , could this be the panel, plus, could this be the end of our british constitution as we know it ?

welcome back to state of the nafion welcome back to state of the nation . i'm tom harwood, and the nation. i'm tom harwood, and the time is 823. now. we've been discussing the labour party's manifesto, including what it means for the overall tax burden. but it's not just tax, tax, tax. there's plenty more. as expected. it's included in its plan is to grant voting rights to 16 year olds. plans for gb energy, a new investment vehicle for the government, for gb energy, a new investment vehicle for the government , the vehicle for the government, the self—proclaimed nationalised energy water company , energy energy water company, energy company rather, which is actually just that investment vehicle and of course nhs plans too. but who better to ask about it than one of tony blair's former special advisers? yes, another one. john mcternan joins me now. john, thank you so much for making the time this evening. it's a big day for the labour party, but perhaps the biggest overall guiding watchword here has been caution and to some extent, a level of vagueness as , i really think vagueness as, i really think that's wrong. >> i think this is a radical

manifesto with a substantive offer to lots and lots of groups , particularly young people, who are offered one thing by the tory party compulsory national service , and are offered a range service, and are offered a range of things by the labour party . of things by the labour party. >> okay, let's go to one of those things that is offered to young people from the labour party equalising the national minimum wage. now, when you worked for tony blair, of course , he introduced the minimum wage. many people warned that it would increase unemployment. one of the reasons why it didn't, or at least didn't drastically compared to where unemployment might have been otherwise, is that there was a committee established to set out what the rules of the minimum wage should be, that it should be kept low enough that you wouldn't put too many people out of work. and one of the recommendations of that committee was to offer a graduated step into the minimum wage, because one of the big risks, of course, when you have a price floor on wages, is young people are the first to get the

cut. why then, is keir starmer so desperate to get rid of that plan that was introduced by tony blair that mitigated any unemployment risks from a minimum wage ? minimum wage? >> for two reasons. one, he's not tony blair, he's not a blairite, and two, we've learnt from experience and we've seen a government one of the few things that the this government has done successfully is introducing what they call a national living wage, basically, the labour party living wage, they built on a labour success, but they've kept the discrimination on for 18 to 21 year olds. there is no justification for saying an 18 year old is not an adult. there's no justification for giving them a lower wage, because they're 18, 19 or 20. >> here's a justification . in >> here's a justification. in france, you have double digit youth unemployment rates. in other countries that have that have a less labour market flexibility. you see far higher youth unemployment. one of the

remarkable things about unemployment in this country over the last 14 years is just how low it's been. are you not risking higher unemployment? >> you can't say that with a straight face, that the one thing that stands between us and a french labour market is discriminating against 1821 year olds. i can't believe one thing, john. >> as you know, there are plenty other issues. >> great. giving 18 year olds equal pay with 21 year olds is not going to bring down the british labour market or just make things slightly harder for a lot of young people. no it won't. it will be absorbed and you know it will be absorbed, because there's no justification for it, because businesses have so much spare cash to slosh around these days. it's a seller's for market labour at the moment. you know that there's a shortage of labour, a shortage of skilled labour, a shortage of skilled labour, a shortage of skilled labour, a shortage of labour. working in the right places is right for young people to actually benefit from a tight labour market is wrong to exclude them from the benefits of it .

benefits of it. >> now there's another issue that hasn't received much airtime, and that is the date by which selling cars, new cars with internal combustion engines, that practice will be banned, of course , across europe banned, of course, across europe it's 2035. in the uk, it's 2020, 2035. the labour party saying bnng 2035. the labour party saying bring it forward five years. >> why no , the labour party >> why no, the labour party think bringing it back to where the tory party used to have it, we were just a party committed to decarbonising the economy. it's selling new cars, as you know . you should set that when know. you should set that when you set out the policy. it's not selling any car. fair enough. you need to understand that britain is going to go back to the policies that the tory party used to have nothing , the used to have nothing, the policies that, of course, i suppose presents some clear blue water there between some more restrictive practices and, and, and a freer market. i think decarbonising the economy has got nothing to do with the free

market, decarbonising the economy. it's all to do with one saving the planet and two getting there faster than germany, which is dominated by its, its car plants, car manufacturers getting their fast in germany . i manufacturers getting their fast in germany. i think britain wants to not align with europe. britain wants to be different from europe faster than europe, better than europe. >> it's potentially a brexit benefit then. john mcternan i'm afraid that's all we've got time for. but thank you so much for joining us. really good to talk. now with me. are my panel, the conservative peer lord goodman and the gb news senior political commentator nigel nelson, lord goodman, let's start with this, manifesto. broadly, what everyone was expecting. >> can i just take a step back for a moment and question why we're taking any of this seriously at all? this is keir starmers manifesto. keir starmer has a record making promises. we know that as he made solemn pledges in his leadership campaign, he promised to abolish universal credit, he promised. here's another one to get rid of tuition fees. all these promises

have been broken. now i know you could make the same sort of argument against some of the things the conservatives have done. but as matters stand, the conservatives are not going to win this general election. keir starmer is on these polls. and actually, i feel at the deepest level, standing back from this manifesto , were actually flying manifesto, were actually flying a bit blind because we don't know what keir starmer is going to do in government. but we know that because he's got a record of breaking his promises. >> what do you make of that, nigel lawson? well i think circumstances have changed. >> and so if you go through the various promises, take one that you didn't mention, one of his original ten promises was he would nationalise the energy industry. indeed. now, when you look at that, that would i mean, unite did a great study where they looked at the figures £90 billion to nationalise it. if you just pay the shareholders back their money, double that if you back their money, double that if you pay back their money, double that if you pay market value, clearly 90 billion is just not not credible in the present time. so he's gone back on that promise . but i

gone back on that promise. but i think rather sensibly, rather than keep it and bankrupt the nafion than keep it and bankrupt the nation . nation. >> and yet and yet there are promises, nigel, that didn't cost a single penny, for example, free movements with the eu that was one of keir starmer's original pledges. can economic circumstances explain how he's ditched that one? >> no. i mean, you're absolutely right. there was also voting rights for eu citizens in this country. that was another one, i think what, 5, five of the top 5% earners would face extra tax and a whole host of things. but i do think things have actually changed since those promises were made. and what we should judge him on is the present ones . now, paul makes the point. can you trust him on those promises? that's what the voter to decide. >> and there's a big question of trust here. >> well, indeed. and you know, nigel is right to say that the argument is circumstances have changed. and that's the argument starmer is making now. but i would then ask, is he going to turn around in a year and a half and say circumstances have changed, but they might. but just to, just to take the in which case you can't take any of the promises seriously. but if you are going to take them

seriously, are you going to take the sort of general thrust of the sort of general thrust of the manifesto? what he wants to do is to get higher growth. but again, this raises a question. we've had very low growth for several years. what's he going to do if the growth doesn't come? and the answer is, you know, you cut your spending or you put up your taxes higher and i can see the direction of travel here, it's going to be higher taxes still . higher taxes still. >> after all, rachel reeves did for a long time talk about more taxes on capital gains, more tax on stocks and shares , changing on stocks and shares, changing banding for council tax , it's banding for council tax, it's odd that she was talking about this stuff in 2021. isn't talking about it now , it's talking about it now, it's possible that we revived the other side of the election . other side of the election. >> well it could i mean, what the sort of code word they use is no plans to do any of those taxes. you've just mentioned . we taxes. you've just mentioned. we know, of course, that no plans means they're not ruled out there on the table in, in in her defence, i think that you can't ask her to write the next five years budgets. now until we've

seen what the circumstances are. but it is possible those taxes will go up. we've only got a firm promise on income tax , firm promise on income tax, national insurance and vat. >> well, hold those thoughts because we're going to be diving into something that is breaking. just this evening, into something that is breaking. just this evening , this just this evening, this astonishing poll showing for the first time in the history of british polling, the conservative party is not in first or second place in a westminster election. pretty extraordinary stuff. reform on 19, the conservatives on 18. we're going to dive into the detail after this.

good evening, and welcome back to state of the nation . my name to state of the nation. my name is tom harwood. the time is 8:36. now, earlier today in an interview, nigel farage was asked whether he would be willing to lead the conservative party in some form in the future

after being pushed on the matter . he ultimately said he would. but now, with new polling showing the reform party is one point ahead of the conservative gives, the idea of nigel farage leading some sort of merged reform conservative party after the election. well is it all that unlikely a possibility with me to discuss this is nigel nelson and paul goodman, lord goodman , first of all, lord goodman, first of all, lord goodman, first of all, lord goodman, your reaction to the conservative party no longer being either first or second place in this one poll? >> of course, you were referring to margin of error. and i think the important element here isn't really that reform have overtaken the conservatives. it's that in poll after poll, if you prompt , they're quite close you prompt, they're quite close together. if you don't prompt the conservatives share of the vote is still quite small and reforms is coming up. vote is still quite small and reforms is coming up . so the big reforms is coming up. so the big lesson here is at the moment, everyone seems to want to kick the conservatives. but if sections of the right vote tory other sections vote reform,

you're looking at what happened in canada , which was 15 years of in canada, which was 15 years of left wing government , in canada, which was 15 years of left wing government, and i think people have not really got their minds around that yet because there enjoying the party of kicking the tories. but we're heading towards a very long hangover with a very high bill. >> nigel nelson, your thoughts? >> nigel nelson, your thoughts? >> well, i mean, looking at the poll, i was doing some number crunching today before this poll dropped roughly to see what would happen if reform did overtake the tories. so with the help of electoral calculus , help of electoral calculus, putting in some some figures there, what you end up getting is that the tories do end up on a 62 mps. it would be a toss up whether they or the lib dems would be the official opposition, but and if you put reform on 20 points, i appreciate they're not quite there yet, but that's the direction they're going in. they get six mps. if you've got six mps, you're not going to be in a position to take over the tories. >> so that is interesting, nigel, that even because of the efficiency of the vote, i suppose, and the incumbency effect for conservatives, even

on a lower share than reform, they get many more mps. >> that's right. and the same with the lib dems. the lib dems are also will get a lower share. they're on about 10. they would still come back with more than 60 mp5 still come back with more than 60 mps on that. that's the way the first past the post voting system works. >> that is fascinating. i want to bring some detail from within this poll. the headline voting intention wasn't the only thing that was asked. there was also a pretty incisive question there about how voters would feel if the labour party won a quotes a very large majority. well 38% said that would be a good thing. 38% said that would be a bad thing. and 24% said they didn't know. coincidentally, 38% is just one point ahead of the polling rating of the labour party in that poll. so very interesting stuff there. but of reform voters, remember, this is the poll that showed reform in second place of reform voters ,

second place of reform voters, 80% said a large labour majority would be a very bad thing. and 22% of reform voters just 22% of reform voters, actually expect the labour party to get a majority. so so, lord goodman, something there for conservative strategists to work with. >> this is all grist to the mill of a very difficult argument for the conservatives that they are beginning to start to make. if you listen to senior ministers like grant shapps, they began effectively to say not in these words , but look, guys, we've words, but look, guys, we've lost. just what have you do ? lost. just what have you do? don't hand labour or what they're calling a supermajority are really the majority. now, the figures you've cited show that maybe there's some hope that maybe there's some hope that that message would get home. because correct me if i'm wrong, it sounded like 62% of voters overall . if you can voters overall. if you can persuade, the don't knows would be resistant to this idea. and a very large number of reform voters actually really don't want a labour supermajority. now

go back to nigel's figures. a moment ago, he was absolutely right about the way the vote falls. yes, clearly, if one party can stop labour getting a supermajority , there's only one supermajority, there's only one contender. yes, it's the derided conservatives. >> nigel, this is going to be a very difficult moment for many people in the conservative party because lord goodman's right. they're going to have to basically say to the electorate, we've lost, make us lose less badly. please and the trouble is, again, because of the first past the post system, it's a very difficult thing to do , so very difficult thing to do, so if you if you're in a marginal constituency and bear in mind elections can be decided by just 200,000 voters in marginal marginal seats, not every vote is worth the same . so if you if is worth the same. so if you if you are a lib dem voter wanting to get a tory out in an area where labour is second, you might well, you might well go, go and vote labour, if you are,

a tory voter wanting to get wanted to get a labour candidate out there, you might go lib dem as well. so all you can do is you can do this tactical voting by seat without proportional representation. you can't do it nationally . yes. nationally. yes. >> and i suppose the difficulty with squeezing the reform vote is that there are new party. no one knows where these voters are . the conservatives certainly don't. with the labour party and liberals , they can sort of swap liberals, they can sort of swap around and say, oh, last time these guys came second here, last time these guys came second here with reform , you can't here with reform, you can't really do that at all. >> this is, i think, very confusing for a lot of voters and perhaps some of your viewers to follow all these complicated calculations between the four parties. what really is emerging from the conservative point of view is that they will if they want to. and it's a bit risky , want to. and it's a bit risky, have a very clear message for the last few weeks, which is if you want to stop labour having this supermajority as they call it, the only realistic option you've got is to vote for us.

and let's see whether or not that has any effect . that has any effect. >> so then what happens? let's say that there's an electoral outcome where the conservatives and reform get roughly the same share of the vote, but the conservatives end up in third place in parliamentary seats with 50 odd mps. reform maybe get 5 or 6 on a good day. what happens between those two groupings in parliament and could we see a situation? as nigel has hinted today , about a nigel has hinted today, about a sort of merger, nigel farage coming through the middle and leading this rump group? >> why would the tories want to do that? they would still have ten times the number of mps than that than reform would have, also it depends on the nature of the tory party that comes back. are they going to be one nation moderates? they wouldn't do any deals with nigel farage or are they going to be right wingers? >> they just might tell you what. just look at canada where this actually happened. although their reform with a bigger party, which is very unlikely to happen here. it took ten years or more for the formal merger.

the formal merger. and then the leader was not the nigel farage equivalent , who's leader was not the nigel farage equivalent, who's a guy leader was not the nigel farage equivalent , who's a guy called equivalent, who's a guy called preston manning in this this picture of things you had to have a new generation that i suspect the way things are going if the conservatives can't recover, is where you're going. >> bad blood and it takes time. well, thank you very much to my panel after the break, amidst this news of labour's plans for constitutional reforms, we'll be r , has sir keir starmer wigged

welcome back to state of the nation. i'm tom harbord. now for an element of the labour manifesto, you will not see discussed particularly prominently on other channels. what on earth is going to happen to parliament under a labour government? yes. the party is now committed to reforming what it describes as arcane , lie—in it describes as arcane, lie—in procedures and outdated working practices in our ancient

legislature. they will establish a modernisation committee tasked with reforming house of commons procedures . what on earth could procedures. what on earth could this look like? well, one clue is to look at what keir starmer himself has said about reform of the court system in the past. >> do you think it's time that the court system became much more of a place where the ordinary person feels they can go? and i think that means stripping judges and lawyers of their wigs and gowns and making it much more like a gp's, health centre ? centre? >> yes, that really was keir starmer . >> yes, that really was keir starmer. much more like a gp health centre. presumably that means contacting mps only between 8 and 805 in the morning before waiting weeks for an appointment. but seriously, likely this means gone will be traditional gowns of the clerks or the victorian white tie of the doorkeepers. a more clinical sanity parliament. after all, that's slightly what we saw with tony blair. see how points of order used to be called during divisions? >> yes. point of order, madam

speaker . speaken >> get the hat. i will hear him. otherwise i can't hat. i'm sorry .thank otherwise i can't hat. i'm sorry . thank you . . thank you. >> point of order, madam speaker , a relatively simple matter for you to rule on as the treaty of rome, as amended, includes the words akua communautaire . words akua communautaire. >> yes, the wonderful collapsible top hat that was neededin collapsible top hat that was needed in order to make a point of order during a division, parliament lost a little magic when that rule was scrapped under tony blair. many will no doubt hope that more of the quirks and traditions that make our parliament so special are not so hastily done away with. well, joining me now is the barrister and former tory mp jerry hayes and of course, my panel jerry hayes and of course, my panel, the journalist and conservative peer lord goodman and gb news senior political commentator nigel nelson. jerry, we're going to start with you. you, of course, were an mp in the 90s. and i wore the hat. you

wore the hat . wore the hat. >> i was an mp in the 80s as well. yes. when you were just a twinkle in your dad's eye. but in fact, he was. >> my dad wasn't a toolmaker to make it. no, it's. but no. so you wore the hat. this was a marvellous tradition. >> it was like a frisbee because it was a collapsible hat, sir. so if nigel was there. that's right . but what you want to do right. but what you want to do is put it on. but it made sense. and the reason it made sense was if people are milling around and people are jumping up and down, if you're wearing a top hat, people notice you. so it was quite sensible, right? >> but clearly this was one of the traditions that was got rid of under the first blair government. the risk is for traditionalists at least, that many more traditions will be scrapped by keir starmer. the man that wanted to remove gowns and wigs from barristers. you know, judges, i don't care about that. >> what i care about is the running of parliament and what could happen in the house of lords because laws in 1919, 2022, gordon brown made it absolutely clear he wanted to

aboush absolutely clear he wanted to abolish the house of lords. now, of course, we all want to get rid of lord goodman. but, but but , but the rid of lord goodman. but, but but, but the house of lords works as a revival , a revising works as a revival, a revising chamber. the fact is, you guys pick up the mess of the house of commons. on paper it looks rubbish. in reality, it's right now you're going to have a labour government with a massive majority . yeah, and with a large majority. yeah, and with a large left wing element. they can ride roughshod. so the traditions, it won't be the traditions of wigs and gowns and things like that. it could be about parliamentary democracy. we are now the executive. we can do what we want. and if i was, vote. well i will be voting and i'll be voting conservative. will you help me? of course. oh shut up. of course i will. but it's scary . it really is scary. >> well, nigel nelson, what do you make of it all? >> well, i mean, i think that the that the house of lords thing is, is the one that worries me. yes. what are the things in the manifesto was that he would get rid of hereditary peers? the reason that tony blair didn't get rid of

hereditary peers was he wanted to as well, was because our head of state is a hereditary position. so if you take the hereditary peers out of the constitution that threatens the monarchy, but many people think that it's absolutely egregious, that it's absolutely egregious, that there are these unelected people sitting actually , to be people sitting actually, to be fair, the hereditary peers are the only elected people in the house of lords. >> it's obviously of a very small pool, a very pool pool, tell us how that works . tell us how that works. >> well, of course you need some house of lords reform . but the house of lords reform. but the scandalous thing about this absurd proposal, which jerry hayes has just rightly torn to pieces, is you need a proper house of commons reform. yes. rather than all this nonsense about, the silk robes and wigs and all the rest of it. hang on. a house of commons is not doing its job. >> i came here to have a trivial discussion . and you gentlemen discussion. and you gentlemen are trying to. well, you're trying to make this much more substantive than than than the egregious thing. in my view, of

mps wearing t shirts and trainers in the house of commons. does that not set set your sort of, soul ablaze? >> i think from the point of view of the viewers . seriously, view of the viewers. seriously, in the long term, the viewers are more concerned about how the commons works and doesn't work, and the commons is not scrutinised legislation properly. it did an a more thorough way before 97. and these great people like jerry hayes, sadly departed the commons. but since then more and more of the work has been pushed up to us. and let's face it, we're not elected. yes >> and what will happen if the house of lords becomes elected? you'll have the whipping system, party politics will come into it, and it won't be the independent revising chamber that we have at the moment. >> we only have a minute left, and i want to raise perhaps the biggest can of worms for all who work in parliament. and that's where parliament is. it's far overdue. some big renovations , overdue. some big renovations, nigel, in your view, do you think that parliament will move out of westminster for a period

of time? >> no , i think we're stuck there >> no, i think we're stuck there that they've been going on about this renovation for years and years. i think parliament will stay there , and the mps will stay there, and the mps will stay there, and the mps will stay there, and they'll rebuild parliament around them. >> i had lunch the other day with lord liz varne. he used to be clerk of the house of commons. he was telling me one of the biggest problems that they had to prepare for is what would happen to mps excrement. because there is a big this is true. there is a big digger which hasn't been repaired since 1883. >> blimey. well on that, on that note, literally talking, a word, i don't think we're even allowed to say this side of the watershed, that's thank you very much to gerry and my panel. up next, it's patrick christys. what's coming up? yeah well, i've got loads on tonight, tom. >> reform have overtaken the tories in the polls. i've heard some clips that i think show some clips that i think show some shocking left wing bias from establishment media. we're going to be talking about that trans swimmer has been cheating his way into women's races .

his way into women's races. everybody with a brain in their head knows that that is completely wrong. and a massive issue, especially for women. tom. but i do know , i think, tom. but i do know, i think, though, that the weather in somerset is going to be absolutely wonderful. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on . gb news. >> evening. welcome to your latest weather update from the met office here on gb news tomorrow. well, there'll be some sunshine, but be prepared for some heavy showers and gusty winds at times as well. we've seen some blustery conditions today across the west from this area of low pressure. it's been bringing these weather fronts , bringing these weather fronts, which have been bringing in outbreaks of rain spreading steadily now to northern scotland and across eastern england. it will turn a little dner england. it will turn a little drier through the night, that rain tending to move away from much of wales, the midlands and southern england. a few showers will follow in behind the winds, easing a touch but still quite breezy and a very mild night. not really for the time of year, but certainly compared to most

nights of late temperatures holding up in double figures, so it won't be as chilly first thing tomorrow morning. there'll be some sunshine over the midlands and parts of eastern england , but still quite breezy england, but still quite breezy along the south coast, and it won't take long before the showers get going, certainly across wales. expect some showers through the early part of the morning coming into western scotland . northwest western scotland. northwest england parts of northern ireland may start to dry. england parts of northern ireland may start to dry . a ireland may start to dry. a different start to the day here compared to today, but across northern scotland, very different day here because after a largely fine day today, there's going to be much more cloud rain and a fairly brisk wind. and that may stick around across the far north of scotland for most of the day. elsewhere, we'll be chasing the showers through. there will be some sunshine, but the downpours will never be too far away. all areas having that kind of really changeable day. one minute it's fine, ten minutes later it's chucking it down with rain, the showers zipping through on a fairly brisk breeze, and when the sun's out, well, it will feel a little warmer than it has done for most of this week. temperatures still below average

for the time of year, but a little bit higher than many days this week. it's showery right through the weekend. yes, again on saturday. some sunshine, but some heavy thundery showers likely over central and eastern parts. some slow moving downpours further north as well, and it stays blustery in places with further sunshine and showers on sunday. goodbye >> looks like things are heating up . boxt boilers sponsors of up. boxt boilers sponsors of weather

gb news. >> good evening. the top stories from the gb newsroom. the conservative party has fallen behind. reform uk for the first time in a new yougov poll. nigel farage's party are now one point ahead of the tories. labour still sits in the lead at 37. the lib dems on 14, the greens seven on and snp on 3. four out

of seven politicians taking part in the election debate this evening raised their hands when asked whether immigration is too high, nigel farage pointed to the conservatives record . the conservatives record. >> given that your 2010 manifesto, your 2015 manifesto, your 2017 manifesto said you'd reduced net migration to tens of thousands , your 2019 manifesto thousands, your 2019 manifesto said immigration would massively reduce, and that net 4.3 million people have come into the country since that time . why on country since that time. why on earth should anybody believe the fifth manifesto that promises cuts to net migration? >> because of the record of this prime minister? so we've had we've had enough. >> that's fine. i'm happy. >> that's fine. i'm happy. >> figures out today. >> figures out today. >> but commons leader penny mordaunt reaffirmed the conservatives plans to halve migration by next summer. >> whatever the public think about the numbers, what they want from their government and their parliament is to control access of foreign nationals to the uk. we can ensure that each

year the numbers come down and on our plans as we are due to halve that number, halve migration by next summer. with us, you get a cap and a plan with labour. they have no cap, no number and no plan. okay >> meanwhile, labour has outlined a mental health plan that they pledge will get people back to work as they aim to increase economic growth. their plan is to recruit an extra 8500 new mental health staff to treat children and adults with new young futures hubs to provide open access mental health services. they've also pledged mental health support will be available in every school . available in every school. earlier today, sir keir starmer set out labour's manifesto , set out labour's manifesto, reaffirming his commitment to no rises to income tax or national insurance . a conservative insurance. a conservative candidate in the general election says he received a suspicious parcel at his constituency office today, leading to bomb disposal specialists being called into

his office. sir