gb news. >> good morning, and welcome to the camilla tominey show. and wishing you a happy father's day. if you're a father, happy father's day , especially to my father's day, especially to my dad, damian, who i know is watching this and who i'm seeing later for afternoon tea. now, we've passed the halfway point on the campaign trail, three weeks down and only 18 more days to go until we know who will be forming the next government. are the tories toast as farage now claims he's the opposition. i'll be asking the transport secretary, mark harper, what he

makes of the latest catastrophic polling for the conservatives. and it is catastrophic. it puts them down to a potential of winning just 72 seats. patrick diamond, the former adviser to tony blair and gordon brown, will be here as co—author of the 2005 and 2010 labour manifestos. i'll be asking him all about labour's pledges this week, and prospective mps find themselves in the firing line for attacks. right now, we've seen farage attack with a milkshake and cement, so it's physical and verbal . on the campaign trail. verbal. on the campaign trail. i'm going to be speaking to lord walney, the former labour mp and independent adviser to the government, will be sharing his thoughts on how best to protect our politicians, not least because it's the eighth anniversary of jo cox's death today , tom harwood, our gb news today, tom harwood, our gb news deputy political editor, will be joining me to go through the morning's papers and former australian high commissioner alexander downer, who led the right leaning liberal party in australia, will be here. we'll be discussing if the tories could end up in a worse state than the canadian conservatives, who only won. oh my goodness,

two seats in 1993 and i'm going to be speaking to alan evans, who's a former senior civil servant and political historian, who will be discussing his new book on civil servants. have we got too many of them? should some of them be scrapped? so, as even some of them be scrapped? so, as ever, we've got another jam packed 90 minutes of punchy politics ahead this morning. do not even think of going anywhere so -- so let's get stuck into the sunday papers with tom harwood gb news deputy political editor tom lovely to see you this morning. you're putting in a shift, aren't you? we're basically working 6 or 7 day weeks here. i'm working a 12 day weeks here. i'm working a 12 day week this week. >> love that. but no, it's a general election. i wouldn't be dreaming of being anywhere else. >> and with stories like this, tom, we can't resist. so we've chosen the mail on sunday. they're basically going because it's a right leaning paper. i think the right leaning papers

are having a bit of a struggle, aren't they? because it's quite hard to support the conservatives as they are imploding. and a lot of their readers are very angry with the tories. but you've also got the situation with reform. inevitably leading to a supermajority for labour, because there are certain seats where a vote for reform is a vote for labour. i don't care what nigel farage and richard tice say about this. that's true. so the mail on sunday have done this kind of chart, suggest where a vote for reform will cause a starmer geddon actually, that's borrowing from richard tice. >> playbook armageddon. >> playbook armageddon. >> so let's look at some of these seats because it's where some of the big beasts like mel stride, for instance, could be upended. we've got talk in other polls about penny mordaunt not being safe. i read something last night saying rishi sunak might not even be safe in richmond in north yorkshire. >> that is on the very outer bounds of the of the polls there. but even in the survation mississippi poll now, these are the huge sort of 20,000 plus what's known as multi level

post—stratification and regression analysis polls. >> that's good for a sunday morning tom. well done. >> which are incredibly complicated seat by seat analysis. but even in that survation mrp poll that shows 73 seats, just 73 seats from the for the tories, down from 365in 2019. crazy. even in that rishi sunak does keep his seat, but penny mordaunt doesn't and james cleverly doesn't know. >> so it's just what's your theory on why the polls haven't moved at all? because i know there are undecideds and there are certainly very disgruntled , are certainly very disgruntled, but at the same time, labour's vote share is also going down as people splinter off towards reform and the lib dems. right. so we've got the prospect now of labour sort of walking into this supermajority on the basis of a lower vote share than tony blair ever won in 1997 with his landslide. >> it's remarkable, isn't it?

but if we look to the prime minister in a general election who won the highest number of votes in british history, no one surpassed him in this. do you know who it was? john major, john major in 1992, which is crazy. >> which is which is crazy to think about it, but it's because the turnout was high. >> and of course, the gap between labour and the conservatives was small. and that's what matters. it's not the ultimate share, it's the gap . yeah. so if, keir starmer is on 38% now, that's that's five points lower than boris johnson. that's six points lower than bofis that's six points lower than boris johnson got in 2019. it doesn't matter that that's lower because the tories are even further behind because of that split in the right wing vote. so it's easy to see why the mail on sunday is putting out, pictures like this showing where the split is different, what nigel farage says, however, is that there are now seven seats in the latest survation poll that reform has winning. and nigel farage says that this is only growing. so it could be the data

that we're looking at is already out of date. but of course, even in that scenario where the tories are on 70 something and reform is on seven, it's easy to see a lot more seats. the split would be voting for reform rather than voting for the tories. >> do you believe the mrp polling? because that's the kind of most catastrophic picture that's painted by the pollsters of, as we say this, we're calling it , of, as we say this, we're calling it, kind of conserve ageddon.the calling it, kind of conserve ageddon. the whole party is destroyed . it's a bit like 1993 destroyed. it's a bit like 1993 in canada, but yet we do see other polls. i remember that one by jl partners, which was admittedly before the d—day debacle, but that put labour just 12 points ahead of the conservatives. so there's such a huge amount of disparity in all of these polls . of these polls. >> there is, however, 12 points aheadis >> there is, however, 12 points ahead is similar to what tony blair won in 1997. so even in that scenario, we're looking at 160 seats for the tories. that's them losing more than half their seats. so none of these polls show anything other than a landslide victory for the labour party. now there's debate jl partners, for example. they

redistribute the don't knows in terms of likely voting intentions. so they sort of do some second guessing, don't know if they do decide to come out and they sort of predict that don't knowers will probably break towards the government if that's what they voted for last time. there's a lot of complicated maths that goes on behind all of these polls. but the thing is, there isn't a single poll that says that we're in hung parliament territory, that we're in tory majority territory. all of the polls say there'll be a labour landslide . there'll be a labour landslide. the only disagreement is, is this a 1997 style labour landslide? or as you keep mentioning, the canada 93 situation where the tories , the situation where the tories, the canadian progressive conservative party as it was then led by kim campbell, went from the party of government with an absolute majority in the canadian house of commons to just two seats. >> i mean, stephen harper, who was then the conservative party leader. subsequently, i think it took him 13 years to recover this situation. >> under party merger, the progressive conservative party

died . reform. reform merged with died. reform. reform merged with it, and they created the conservative party of canada. do you think electoral based his whole approach on the canadian picture so that he can start rising like a phoenix from the flames , from the ashes of the conservatives? >> is that his game plan ? >> is that his game plan? >> is that his game plan? >> if that is his game plan, he will be a very old man indeed. before he even has a whiff of power. he'll be well into his 70s. >> although he's younger than keir starmer, which is the stat of this election, i think. starmer, 61, farage is 60. >> there's quite a good game that political journalists are playing, which is can you name celebrities that are actually, older than keir starmer but that seem younger? it seems that keir starmer looks a lot like younger than he is, and there are lots of celebrities who you'd think are in their 40s who are actually older than keir starmer, which is weird, but, but yes. >> has he had a good week? >> has he had a good week? >> i mean, let'sjust look >> has he had a good week? >> i mean, let's just look at the observer. the observer are the observer. the observer are the ones who are talking about this idea of labour being on course for the lowest combined, the tories and labour being on course for the lowest combined

share of votes since 1945 and expressing a bit of concern. i think there is some concern about whether keir starmer will have that mandate. i'm just reminded of the brexit referendum and because it was so close , because it was 40 a, 52 close, because it was 40 a, 52 to 48, lots of people said on the remain side, oh well, we don't have a mandate for hard brexit because it's a close result. so well , if you're brexit because it's a close result. so well, if you're going to apply that to labour, getting a supermajority on the back of a lower vote share than tony blair. so more seats for less in a way, then are we then able to argue we can't have, pardon the pun, hard labour for ten years? >> i suppose it would be an argument and it would be a consistent argument with the way that people in the remain campaign argued after they lost the vote. however, of course people in the leave campaign said, well, a majority is a majority. that's democracy . that majority. that's democracy. that is democracy. and there is untrammelled power for a parliamentary majority in our system . it's what lord hailsham system. it's what lord hailsham called an elective dictatorship , called an elective dictatorship, because we don't have a separate executive and legislature like

they do in the united states, where the president can be one party and congress can be different parties as well. in our country, it's all the same. if you're the prime minister and you have a big majority, you can change any law you want to. >> although, i mean, i might speak to philip diamond about this in a moment. the guy who wrote the manifesto for labour in 2005 and ten, is it actually patrick diamond? sorry. is it actually difficult for a leader to have such a big majority because then you've got unwieldy backbenchers doing all sorts and you don't have much? >> there's one thought that i was thinking earlier in the week when we were looking at the g7 in italy with those seven party leaders, seven prime ministers and presidents, almost uniquely unpopular, each one of them in each country left and right. >> the telegraph did something on this. is this the most unpopular group of g7 leaders in history? and it's easy to see why ratings were justin trudeau in canada? >> yes. double digits behind in the polls. olaf scholz in germany, double digits behind in the polls. emmanuel macron losing to the far right in

france , of course, rishi sunak france, of course, rishi sunak here, joe biden in the united states, wherever you look, incumbent governments in western countries, they faced high interest rates, high taxes, had a bout of high inflation. and thatis a bout of high inflation. and that is the political cocktail, the economic cocktail that is leading whichever party the incumbent comes from. the opposition are rising in the polls. that's a clue for actually keir starmer when he gets into office. be careful what you suddenly the shine come off. and is it actually right now the worst job in politics also didn't really expect to be prime minister. >> he thought he was going to be in a holding pattern while boris johnson sort of, you know, lambasted around the world stage for ten years, let's have a quick chat about the resident royal trooper at trooping kate's back. >> she is. and didn't she look marvellous ? marvellous? >> she looked like such a royal phrase. isn't she amazing? the point is, she's channelling her inner audrey hepburn there. it's all very my fair lady. we can't put too much pressure on the princess because, as she said in that statement, tom, she's had

good days and bad days. i mean, if this was a bad day, i'd love to have a bad day. as bad as this, because she looks phenomenally good, but it kind of warms the cockles because a lot of the news at the moment is a bit gloomy. >> it is. and even the weather was gloomy, but i think she shone through. yes, but isn't it interesting? the choices that were made there, sort of channelling my fair lady, audrey hepburn? what are they trying to say about that? is it was kate middleton, once a commoner and now marbles in her mouth, gargling and changing. she never had a cockney accent. >> she never had marbles in her mouth. although there was that quite unfortunate criticism of the fact that carol, her mother middleton, was an air hostess and, you know , she was nicknamed and, you know, she was nicknamed jane, does stay mainly on the plane . i love the way that plane. i love the way that you've said that. also, a quick word, tom. i know you love your football. i know you're absolutely drilled into this, but the euros may they also bnng but the euros may they also bring some welcome cheer to this sorry state of affairs, where we're in a june that the sun isn't shining. everyone's probably had it up to here with electioneering . can we celebrate

electioneering. can we celebrate the football england versus serbia tonight? will you be watching? >> i might, i might tune in for a bit. i just hope i just hope that england does better than scotland did. well on friday. >> we all hope that. >> we all hope that. >> i know that keir starmer missed out on watching the scotland game. oh, bless him and called it dreadful. >> oh really? well, at least he didn't make a rishi sunak mistake and think that wales were at the euros when they didn't qualify. that was a bit of a boo boo. tom harwood. thank you for working so hard. try and get some rest today for goodness sakes. i'll no doubt. see you tomorrow as well when i'm on the 7:00 hour and you're on the 8:00 houn 7:00 hour and you're on the 8:00 hour. lovely to see you, though. thanks for coming in. coming up next. as i said, i'm going to be joined by patrick diamond, who's a former adviser to tony blair, and gordon brown as the man who co—authored two of labour's manifestos. what does he make of sir keir starmer's offering this week in manchester? stay tuned.

welcome back to gb news. you're watching the camilla tominey show. lovely to have your company on this. not very sunny sunday. i'm delighted to be joined now by former adviser to tony blair and gordon brown. patrick diamond. patrick, lovely to see you . great to be here. to see you. great to be here. >> coming in on father's day i know, i know, but it's very good to be with you. >> thank you very much. so first of all, your reaction to the labour manifesto announced in manchester to great fanfare on thursday. >> i think it was a very slick launch of labour's manifesto. i think, given that their campaign is based around a message of stability and competence, they can't be disappointed with the launch of that manifesto. it was a great success from a political point of view, starmer himself said, look, i'm not pulling any rabbits out of the hat. >> you know, if you want gimmicks, go and look at other parties, which left some thinking. it was a bit underwhelming. you know, there wasn't much in it that we didn't know that they were already going to announce. then they say about this idea of not raising taxes for individuals. so they're saying no taxes on working people. so no increase

to vat, no increase to income tax and no increase to national insurance. and yet, paul, through the documents and there's £8.6 billion worth of hidden taxes on non—doms people with overseas properties , people with overseas properties, people who pay private school fees, for instance . i mean, is it smoke instance. i mean, is it smoke and mirrors? >> well, i think it's trying to offer the best assessment they can of where the country is on tax and spend. they're not in government yet. it is true that there is a lot of pressure to raise taxes. and we've seen reports today about the nhs. when you look at the funding situation facing the national health service, it does look like whoever's in government next is going to have to seriously look at the long term funding mechanism. but election campaigns are like this. we have a debate about tax and spend, which , as the institute for which, as the institute for fiscal studies has pointed out, isn't as candid as it could be about the choices facing the country. >> yeah. as in people are being told that they're not going to be taxed more. but if both sides, whoever wins, keep those tax thresholds frozen , the tax tax thresholds frozen, the tax burden goes up, whatever happens. >> exactly. and i think one of the phoney aspects of the debate

in the election, so far has been people are not focusing on the fact that there's already substantial tax rises baked in whoever's in power in the existing tory proposals. so that means that taxes will rise whatever happens on july the 4th. >> what's your reaction to some of the concerns ? and maybe of the concerns? and maybe they're only being expressed on they're only being expressed on the right, but the idea of keir starmer winning a super majority, a much bigger majority than tony blair's, but comparatively on a much smaller vote share, i think the yougov poll that put reform ahead of the tories, that so—called crossover moment, had labour's vote share to down 37. and i personally think, you know, if you're getting below 40% and you've got a massive majority , you've got a massive majority, something doesn't seem quite right there. there could be criticisms that you don't have the mandate, appreciate how democracy works , by the way, and democracy works, by the way, and i appreciate first past the post, is that a legitimate complaint because tony blair won his landslide in 97 on the basis of 43% of the popular vote? i think in this case, if the number begins with a three, it's

not quite the same proposition, is it? >> well, i mean, people will look at the share of the vote, but in the first past the post system, obviously what matters is what is happening in individual constituencies. and because of the way the system works, it does mean that you can win a very substantial majority on a somewhat lower share of the vote than the one that tony blair got in 1997. i mean, it is interesting. there's a lot of discussion about what does labour do about the problem of a supermajority. if you're a supporter of the labour party, you're thinking to yourself, that would be a very nice problem to have, because labour have not had many super majorities in its history. >> let's discuss that, because obviously you've been close to previous labour leaders, blair and brown. is that a problem ? if and brown. is that a problem? if he's got, say, over 250 majority, for instance, and he's managing huge amounts of different types of labour mps, the young, the older, the experienced, the inexperienced, maybe the more corbynista and the more moderate. is that problematic for him, do you reckon, especially as he didn't expect to be prime minister? let's be honest, i think initially the enthusiasm, the

wave of unity across the labour party having won the election, if that's what what happens on july the fourth, and i think there's still an if we can't assume anything, we can't assume any outcome about this election. >> but if that happens, then initially there will be a mood of unity. but of course, as time goes on and they have to make difficult decisions about policy, there is scope for disagreement. the way that we tend to look at this is a left right split. so we think are there left wing mps in the parliamentary labour party who will cause difficulty? for keir starmer? that could be a factor. but i think there's other policies that could lead to other divisions. for example housing. if you have lots of labour mps elected for suburban constituencies in which there is going to be substantial new development of housing, will that lead to divisions about how far you can go on development and new towns and so on. so i think we could see divisions, but not necessarily of the traditional left right kind, starmer, as an individual . i starmer, as an individual. i mean, i just said, though he didn't expect to be prime minister to just put that into context, because obviously he won the leadership and boris johnson had won an 80 seat majority. it looked like he was going to be in play for at least

5 to 10 years. i suppose starmer then thinks he might be the neil kinnock sort of holding pattern candidate until somebody else rises through the ranks who might have a bit more charisma and personality. i don't want to be nasty to the labour leader , be nasty to the labour leader, but there is this sense to which he is quite robotic and bland and we've maybe witnessed that in recent tv debates. he's not blair, is he? and is that a problem ? problem? >> he's a different type of politician, but i think politicians make sense in the political context that they're working in. and today, what people want from their leaders is not perhaps a lot of spin and showmanship, but solid, consistent, reliable leadership. and i think that is what keir starmer is offering. i think you're quite right, though, to talk about the shift that's taken place. it is remarkable. five years ago, labour looked completely out of the picture. it was going to take years to recover in 2021. even only three years ago, the conservatives won that dramatic by—election victory in hartlepool. there was an opinion poll last week which showed the conservatives in hartlepool on 10% of the vote. now we'll see what happens. but it just underlines, i think the

shift has been amazing and lots of people could come on your programme and say, we predicted this, we knew this was going to happen.the this, we knew this was going to happen. the truth is not many people three years ago really thought that labour was within a shot of winning this election. so the shift in the underlying politics of britain has been remarkable. and when i say britain, i think obviously that's partly about what's been happening down here in westminster, but also scotland. and one of the reasons why labouris and one of the reasons why labour is set to do so well on july the fourth, potentially, is because scotland's politics have completely transformed since the resignation of nicola sturgeon. >> yeah, and also, i suppose, people fed up with how long the snp have been in power. they're in a similar way to people being fed up with 14 years of tory rule, and that is extraordinary. >> you have that sense both in westminster and in holyrood, that it's time for a change, whether it's the snp in scotland or the conservatives governing the whole of the uk, there is that mood of we're just fed up. we want something different and hence why his sloganeering , keir hence why his sloganeering, keir starmer particularly, it's just that one word change, which i noted in manchester. >> can i talk to you about a constitutional matters because you've got some skin in the game

here. the historian david starkey. and indeed it was followed up by peter hitchens in the mail in the week, have expressed concern that starmer has endorsed this paper and then seemed to have echoed it in his manifesto. this idea of taking more power away from mps and elected representatives and putting it in the hands of the supreme court and then quangos, arm arm's length bodies that aren't as accountable to the pubuc aren't as accountable to the public as, say, elected representatives and he's saying starkey. and indeed hitchens is saying this is a continuation of brown and blairism. the idea of taking power away from those who are in to parliament others, and that that's going to continue. and if the constitution isn't adequately protected, it's going to consign conservatives to the scrapheap for ten years. can you react to that? is that a legitimate concern and complaint? >> i think you've got to look at the particular areas of policy where that's happened. so with central bank independence, which is, of course, the big decision that gordon brown took in 1997, i think setting interest rates

through a group of experts, rather than having them politically manipulated, has been, on balance, the right decision. if you had interest rates now in the hands of politicians, if we'd had in 2022, liz truss and kwasi kwarteng operating interest rate levers, as well as everything else , the consequences for the else, the consequences for the economy could have been very serious. so i'm not sure that the objection applies across the board, but i think there is a legitimate point about how widely spread is power in britain and also what are the safeguards in place, particularly if you were to have a government in the future that did have a very large majority? how do we make sure that the voice of those who perhaps don't support that government or come from other parts of the uk, is properly represented? i should just say labour is of course committed also to devolution. and i think one of the good things about both of the conservative and labour manifestos is that there's some continuity in the past at a new government comes in and rips up everything that the previous government has done. in this case, labour is proposing to stick with devolved city region mayors at the conservatives introduced early in the 2010s. i think that's a good thing for

our democracy. it means that there's some stability and continuity rather than the constant chopping and changing. >> really, really briefly. we've only got a minute left. well in rachel reeves talks about not putting up taxes, not wanting to borrow outside of strict fiscal rules, and not wanting a return to austerity. how are they going to austerity. how are they going to spend? how are they going to get the money to spend anything on anything? >> well, what they're going to for hope is growth. there is a big growth strategy in that manifesto. but of course, with geopolitical events, changes going on in the world economy , going on in the world economy, whether we'll get growth that quickly remains a very open question. >> although things may improve for them, at least in the first yeah for them, at least in the first year. there are some indications of that comes down and things like that. absolutely. patrick diamond, thank you very much indeed for joining diamond, thank you very much indeed forjoining me this indeed for joining me this morning. great to have your expertise on this issue as well. coming up, i'm going to be joined by transport secretary mark harper and former australian high commissioner alexander downer. they're going to be discussing the prospect of tory armageddon and what the polls might mean for rishi sunaks future . i do not even sunaks future. i do not even think of going anywhere because we have got an hour of fun packed politics still to come.

brilliant. thank you

way . welcome back. so much more way. welcome back. so much more to come. in the next hour, i'm going to be joined by the transport secretary, mark harper, and former australian high commissioner alexander downer. but first, here's the news with sam francis . news with sam francis. >> camilla, thank you very much. and good morning to you. it's exactly 10:00. the top stories this morning. the tories are being warned that they face electoral extinction, with polling firm savanta saying the time is close to running out for the prime minister and in a separate poll for the times, survation says the conservatives have the lowest ever vote share under rishi sunaks leadership, predicting that the party will

win just 72 seats in next month's general election. it's also forecasting that labour is on course to take 456 seats, surpassing their 1997 landslide, with reform uk getting seven. health is at the forefront of labour and the liberal democrats election campaigning today , election campaigning today, after accusing the conservatives of creating a crisis in cancer care, sir keir starmer is promising to cut cancer waiting lists, double ct and mri scanners and to provide 40,000 extra appointments each week. meanwhile the lib dems are proposing a £1 billion boost for radio therapy equipment, adding 200 machines to cut waiting times. so ed davey, who's personally affected by cancer, also says he wants to see a legal guarantee in place. that means patients will receive treatment within 62 days of an urgent referral . israel has urgent referral. israel has announced that it will now hold so—called tactical pauses in its military offensive in southern

gaza to allow for more humanitarian aid into the area. the army says the break will begin in rafah , with activity begin in rafah, with activity paused for 11 hours every day along a road that leads from the kerem shalom crossing. the main entry point for incoming supplies. it's understood that efforts are being coordinated with the un and other international aid agencies . international aid agencies. world leaders have drafted a declaration that's designed to end russia's war in ukraine. more than 90 world leaders are at a peace summit in switzerland for a second day. they're seeking consensus on condemning russia's invasion. a draft communique calls for a nuclear plants and ports to be secured under ukraine's control, and for food not to be weaponized, and for all prisoners of war to be exchanged . there could be more exchanged. there could be more hay fever, misery for millions, as high pollen is forecast to return to large parts of the uk today, it's set to affect the whole of southern england, wales

and the midlands. the conditions will spread to yorkshire tomorrow before hitting the northeast and northwest on tuesday . and finally, the tuesday. and finally, the countdown is now on as england prepare to kick off their euro 2024 campaign against serbia tonight. hundreds of thousands of england fans are expected to travel to germany throughout the tournament to cheer for the national team. manager gareth southgate says that he expects everyone to enjoy the game, despite german police labelling the match high risk. and that's following reports of serbian ultras making their way to the region . for the latest stories, region. for the latest stories, you can sign up to gb news alerts. just scan the code on your screen or go to gb news. com slash alerts. now though, it's back to . camilla. it's back to. camilla. >> thanks, sam. welcome back to the camilla tominey show. still lots more to come in. just a minute. transport secretary mark harper will be here. i'm going

to be grilling him about nigel farage's claim that reform is now the opposition, not the tories . i'll also be speaking to tories. i'll also be speaking to former australian high commissioner alexander downer. are the conservatives going to be completely destroyed at this election ? and i'll be joined by election? and i'll be joined by lord walney, the former labour mp and independent advisor to the government, as mps are facing unprecedented threats to their safety. what can be done to protect them and alan evans, former senior civil servant and political historian , will be political historian, will be here to tell us about his new book about the inner workings of whitehall. but i'm delighted to be joined first by transport secretary mark harper . great to secretary mark harper. great to see you, mark, funnily enough, the labour party are running scared. well, i know , and we've scared. well, i know, and we've had our altercations in the past, but it's good to see you in the flesh because would you believe the labour party haven't put anyone up to us today? i think because of my interview with emily thornberry last week. so i'm glad that even though you're having an absolute hammering in the polls, you're not afraid of some robust

questioning . questioning. >> no. well, perhaps that says what labour think about your viewers and the fact they maybe don't fit labour's metropolitan bias. camilla. but no, i'm always happy to come on, even when you give me a hard time. >> all right. i'm going to give you a hard time about the polling because it is absolutely catastrophic for the tories. we've now got a prediction that you might only win 72 seats, which would be, let's be honest, apocalyptic . we've got rishi apocalyptic. we've got rishi sunak's approval rating continuing to tank, there's a suggestion , according to a poll suggestion, according to a poll done by techni, that sunak isn't trusted on tax anymore. what's going wrong? this election campaign has been an unmitigated disaster, hasn't it? transport secretary ? secretary? >> no, look. it hasn't. look, first of all, i understand why people want to ask about the polls, but it's worth just saying apart from some early postal votes, nobody's voted in this election yet. and we also know from the polls if we're

going to quote them, a record number of people, i think 44% of the electorate haven't yet made up their minds about who they're going to vote for. it's exactly the reason why we come on shows like yours to make the case about a conservative government, with the programme that we've set out for lower taxes, dealing with migration, a fully costed programme for government and in fact, labour. let the cat out the bag this morning, fact, labour. let the cat out the bag this morning , the the bag this morning, the programmes that wes streeting was on, he's let the cat out of the bag. but there's more labour spending coming. that's not in the manifesto, he said. the manifesto is effectively a document to get them through an election campaign, and that means only one thing. it means what we've been saying is correct, which is you vote laboun correct, which is you vote labour. there are unfunded spending promises and that can only mean more taxes on hard working families . and we've working families. and we've costed that at £2,000 for an average family over the parliament. and i don't think your viewers can afford that sort of tax burden. and that's why under the conservatives they'll get reductions in taxes. we've laid out a clear programme , fully funded to do that on

working families, on making sure pensioners don't pay the retirement tax they'd pay under laboun retirement tax they'd pay under labour. i think that's a very strong offer. that's the case we're going to be making between now and polling day . and i think now and polling day. and i think that's where people's minds will be concentrated about the potential choices they face. only rishi sunak or keir starmer is going to be prime minister on the 5th of july, and those people thinking about voting reform, if they vote reform, they're going to get a labour government with a large majority and a blank cheque to do whatever it likes. >> having said that, when you keep on doubling down on this £2,000 claim, you're saying that labour will add £2,000 to british households . at the same british households. at the same time, fraser nelson, the editor of the spectator, crunched the numbers for the conservatives and he calculated that over the course of the next parliament, should rishi sunak win power again, that the conservatives are going to add £3,000 to people's tax bills for as long as those tax thresholds remain frozen? mr harper, people are going to end up paying more tax .

going to end up paying more tax. >> look, we've set out our plans very clearly. our manifesto has us a stable rising and then reducing taxes. and if you're an average worker, you now face the lowest tax rates that you have done for 50 years with the reduction we've already made in national insurance and a further 2% cut to come, you face the lowest tax rates than you have for 50 years now. that is the that's the direction of travel that's the direction of travel that we want to do. now, look, it's been tough because we had to get the public finances in order. you know, the argument that rishi sunak made when he was running to be prime minister was running to be prime minister was that you had to deal with the public finances and then cut taxes, which you could do in a sustainable way. now we've had to do that hard graft to do that. the british people have had to do that. but we're now in a position where we can cut taxes in a sustainable way, and we're the only party that can win this election , that setting win this election, that setting that out under labour, there's going to be more spending, more taxes. for example, just this morning, they haven't ruled out

increasing council tax bands and revaluing people's properties. we know they want to do that in wales, where labour has been in power for 25 years, they're currently legislating to revalue people's properties and increase council tax bands. and they haven't ruled out doing that in england . that would be a massive england. that would be a massive increase for working families and we have ruled out doing either of those things. >> okay. i mean, is it helpful necessarily for lord cameron to be attacking nigel farage? the people you should be attacking all the time are labour rather than reform, because at the end of the day, you're almost attacking yourself. you're attacking yourself. you're attacking the right. the former prime minister has said that nigel farage has been trying to destroy the conservative party by standing for reform. i think with these populist, what you get is inflammatory language and hopeless policy. but at the end of the day, populism , populism, of the day, populism, populism, if that's how you want to dress up, reform and farage is always going to be more successful electorally than unpopular ism. i mean, the tories are unpop

suella and yet he's attacking reform for being populist, which is preferable . is preferable. >> look, i think it's important to appeal to voters that are thinking about voting for reform, who've previously voted conservative. and i said, i think those voters want lower taxes and they want lower migration, both legal and illegal. we've set out very clear plans to do both of those things. we've got a clear manifesto to cut taxes . we've manifesto to cut taxes. we've got a clear plan to deal with legal migration, which we accept is too high. we've already made changes, not promised ones, but already made changes that will halve legal migration over the next year. and we've got a very clear plan , our rwanda plan to clear plan, our rwanda plan to deter illegal migration. labour. the only alternative government that's possible will do none of those things. they'll put people's taxes up and they'll put up migration and have an effective amnesty for people coming illegally. now, that's the choice facing people. and i think those people that are

attracted to reform conceive of those two choices. they need to vote conservative to get lower taxes and lower migration. >> is rishi sunak a help or a hindrance on the campaign trail for tory mps ? we noted this week for tory mps? we noted this week that andrea jenkyns has removed all reference to rishi sunak and the conservatives from her leaflets. she's instead been photographed with nigel farage. >> well, i think he's a very strong on the campaign trail. i still remember when he was chancellor of the exchequer and many of my constituents do. when we faced a global pandemic. he took the necessary steps to protect millions of jobs , protect millions of jobs, thousands of businesses. my constituents have not forgotten that he had their back at the most difficult time possible. and he's continued that record in office. he did what was necessary. i think people can know about him. people can always take this. he will do the right thing for the country that's in the country's interest , even if it's difficult and he

has to take some flak for doing it. that's what he did when he got the public finances under control and then able to cut taxes. he'll always do the right thing. that's what people want in a prime minister someone will do the right thing for them and their family and not what's immediately popular and easy for him . him. >> but then why, if he's so great, is his approval rating worse not only than boris johnson's, but also liz truss ? johnson's, but also liz truss? >> well, look, i think the prime minister set out a very clear offer at this election, a very clear choice for people about cutting taxes and about delivering on the clear commitments in our manifesto, for example, to increase defence spending to 2.5, you know you'll have covered in the news today the summit that's going on at the summit that's going on at the moment, dealing with putin's illegal war in ukraine and about how we deal with that. we've been ukraine's strongest supporter. that's why we've said we want to increase defence spending to 2.5% in an uncertain

world, to make families more secure, and we've got a plan to do so again, not backed by the labour party, something they wouldn't do and aren't able to afford . afford. >> would you be asking boris johnson to record a video endorsing your campaign locally? would that help ? would that help? >> look, i'm very happy having the prime minister endorsing my campaign. i'm very happy going out on the doorsteps , but i'm out on the doorsteps, but i'm very happy. i want all conservatives to be campaigning for the conservative party. i think every conservatives are 100% should be focused on winning this election and fighting for every vote right up until the polls close . until the polls close. >> so should johnson johnson be on the campaign trail then? should johnson be on the campaign trail physically, then ? campaign trail physically, then? >> no, i'm i'm very happy for every conservative who wants us to win to get out there and campaign for the conservative party. anyone who wants us to win, very happy to have them on the campaign trail campaigning for votes. that's what every conservative should be doing.

>> is that a direct appeal to bofis >> is that a direct appeal to boris johnson and every person? >> no. look, it's just saying very simply , every conservative very simply, every conservative should be out there fighting for every vote we've got activists up and down the country who i know are going out day in, day out, rain and shine. we've had rather a lot of rain in this summer election. they've been going out, knocking on doors, delivering leaflets, and every conservative should be 100% focused on winning that election, making our case and setting out that choice for lower taxes under the conservatives compared to higher taxes under labour. and every conservative should get involved in that. and i'm very happy to see all of them on the campaign trail. >> all right. many thanks indeed , mark harper forjoining me this morning. really appreciate it.thank this morning. really appreciate it. thank you. thank you. pleasure. in just a minute, i'm going to be joined by the former australian high commissioner alexander downer. i'll be asking him what he makes of the collapse of the tories in the uk. they doomed? don't go

anywhere.

welcome back to the camilla tominey show. i'm delighted to be joined now by the former australian high commissioner alexander downer . now, alexander downer. now, alexander, when you were last on the show back in march, i'm going to play what you said because you warned that the tories could be facing this canada style wipe—out and you said it in relation to this idea of actually changing leaders at that point. but let's just have a little listen to what you said i >>i -- >> i think m >> i think this will lead to a kind of 1993 canadian election result, where the canadian tories ended up with just two seats. seriously that was on the back of a paper review where we were talking about whether penny mordaunt should be installed like a set of double glazing into downing street, because rishi sunaks poll rating was tanking. >> what do you now think? because, i mean, the latest survey asian poll suggesting they might be reduced to 72

seats is catastrophic. >> well, well, i think i think the campaign, which is a statement of the obvious , is statement of the obvious, is going very badly. but the reason i think it's going so badly is that the conservatives are continually talking about themselves and talking about the right of politics and attacking reform and so on. instead, if they wanted to have any chance to use an expression we like to use of saving the furniture , use of saving the furniture, they need to focus on the labour party because it looks inevitable that the labour party is going to be the next government. that's what matters. yes. and what is that government going to be like? are we going the labour party has made it clear it's going to re—empower trade union bosses. so we're back to the, the britain of the 19705, back to the, the britain of the 1970s, the winter of descants tent and all of that, they are planning to increase taxation and a whole lot of, different areas. they have massive spending programs , so the

spending programs, so the government is going to control more and more of the economy, productivity will continue to at best flatline, probably decline as it has done in australia under australian labour, and it seems to me there is a huge array of material the conservatives could be running against labour, but the more they talk about farage, they talk about themselves, they talk about their policies, they've beenin about their policies, they've been in power for 14 years. >> they keep on talking about this whole well, we were hit with a global pandemic and we were hit with the war in ukraine. and it's all been very difficult. and we're now having to reverse taxes that we put up. we're now having to reverse immigration that we put up the public's stop listening, haven't they?i public's stop listening, haven't they? i mean, you've been around they? i mean, you've been around the block for a long time. >> they might be fair arguments , >> they might be fair arguments, those arguments, but the public is looking to the future , and so is looking to the future, and so i would help them look to the future . i would say to them,

future. i would say to them, this is the future. the polls show labour is going to win in a landslide. it's going to have a super majority, and this is what they'll do . and i you know, if i they'll do. and i you know, if i were running the conservative campaign to not to put too fine a point on it, i would paint the dystopian future of britain under labour. they have a weak leader. they have a huge number of left wing mps. there are, quote after quote after quote of labour mps over the last five years that the conservatives could use to get the public to think again about voting labour. but if they keep talking about themselves and, different policies, they're going to pursue and how terrible they think nigel farage is, they will end up with a canadian style result. >> well, are you saying about advising the conservatives you'd be good, well placed to do that because you ran the liberal party in australia, which is the equivalent of the conservatives. you've had experience of both winning and losing. at this

stage in the game, you've got a pubuc stage in the game, you've got a public that isn't really listening. you've got this degree, perhaps, of complacency about labourjust degree, perhaps, of complacency about labour just walking degree, perhaps, of complacency about labourjust walking in degree, perhaps, of complacency about labour just walking in to have that super majority on the bafis have that super majority on the basis of a very low vote share. so i get what you're saying about sort of switching the narrative and making it more about attacking labour. why in your mind do you think they're not doing that? is it because rishi sunak wants to have some sort of clean fight and not use attack? i mean, how effective is attack? i mean, how effective is attack is we're in last chance saloon, so there's no other way to pivot, is there? no. >> i mean, what is not going to be effective is continuous announcing new policies because they've been in power for 14 years. so the public are going to say fair enough. but why didn't you do that over the last 14 years? there may be good answers to that question, but that's not the discussion you need to get into. you only want to have one discussion at this stage in the election campaign. i mean, i have, and that's about the opposite in becoming the government, i've been in tough

elections. i've seen, for example, the 1993 australian election where paul keating turned it around from a big deficit by just focusing on the opposition and defeated the opposition. it is the only way for a long serving government. okay, so we're flawed. is the implication. you wouldn't say that, but it's the implication . that, but it's the implication. yeah. and all governments are flawed, but this is what will happenif flawed, but this is what will happen if labour wins, and if they talk of nothing else but that and be strident and determined in, in that message, then, well, they'll save the furniture if they keep talking about themselves and nigel farage and so on, they will end up with a canadian style result . up with a canadian style result. >> really? is there still time to save the furniture? i mean , to save the furniture? i mean, you've talked about it being a disastrous campaign. just how bad has it been? i mean, given an evaluation of the d—day debacle, for instance? >> well, i mean, that that it

speaks for itself. you mean you can't do that sort of thing dunng can't do that sort of thing during an election campaign? you have to, focus on doing the right thing by the d—day veterans. that's the priority for that day. was the 6th of june. so on the 6th of june, that should have just been pencilled in as no matter what else happens this day, that is what we're going to do on that day. so for a week, there was discussion about d—day, for a week , and that's a week out of week, and that's a week out of the campaign. that's a week. of course, they will know that the conservatives. but that is a week, and they're running out of time when they. yeah, exactly. they should have been talking about labour now . now they've about labour now. now they've got three weeks to go. >> have they got time . they've >> have they got time. they've got time to squeeze these poles down, alexander. >> yes, i think they have really i mean i think in three weeks if they vigorously and determinedly focus on the labour party, its labour market reforms, it's tax policies, it's diversity, equity

and inclusion policies and so on. if they keep focusing on the horror story of what a labour government would be like under a weak leader with a lot of left wing mps, and, and the country will become virtually a one party state at this rate , if party state at this rate, if they keep focusing on that, then people will start to go back to the conservatives. and what do you think as a conservative and an international former statesman, let's put it like that, because you're a leader of the opposition in australia, what do you think about this idea of in the uk concert, being consigned to the sidelines for a potentially decades to come? >> i mean, it's not a comfortable position for anyone on the right to be in, is it? >> it needn't be for more than a few years, really, but. well well, how how do you mount an effective opposition to a supermajority of that could surpass anything in tony blair's wildest dreams? focus on focus

on what they're doing. don't focus on yourself. yeah, focus on the decisions they make, and you'll start ringing, winning the public back. the public will start to think, these people aren't so good after all. i mean, i don't think the public, by the way, at this stage, do think the labour party is going to be a great government. they just want to get rid of the tories. but if you tell the pubuc tories. but if you tell the public that the price of getting rid of the tories is what i have described, you know , union described, you know, union bosses back in charge at number 10, man, massive increases in all sorts of anti—business taxes , a reregulation of the economy winding back all that thatcher and blair did over the past eight decades, winding it all back to wilson and callaghan , if back to wilson and callaghan, if you can convince the public of that , then you will start that, then you will start winning votes back and, and win quite a lot of votes back. >> what do you talk what do you

make of this talk by nigel farage about him being the one to unite the right after the election, you know, rising like a phoenix from the flames, from the ashes of the conservative party. do you buy that, no, i don't, because , i'm sorry to say don't, because, i'm sorry to say this is an example of hubris. the thing about people in politics is when they're doing well , they almost always well, they almost always overreach. yes. and to say that they almost always do. you know, napoleon did . yes, they almost napoleon did. yes, they almost always overreach . and i think always overreach. and i think he's overreaching, saying things like that because the public aren't thinking that it sounds slightly silly and tinny to be saying that i'm the leader of the opposition. suddenly i mean, they won no seats at the last election . they have one seat by election. they have one seat by virtue of lee rowley leaving the conservative party. anderson, lee anderson. sorry, lee anderson leaving the conservative party that's it. right? yes. so to claim to be on that basis and on the basis of one opinion poll, the leader of

the opposition, it's just sounds silly. so no, no, just would be best in your mind because you're now chair of the policy exchange, which is a leading think tank in westminster. >> so you're up close and personal quite a lot with a lot of ministers and shadow ministers on the tory side. once this is all done and dusted, assuming that it is a terrible drubbing because that's what the pollsters are all more or less universally saying it will be. who do you think would be best placed to try and piece things back together on the right? it's hard to know because it depends who wins their seats . who wins their seats. >> i mean, you have to find somebody who's won a seat. >> so let's put it this way. let's assume that braverman patel, morden jenrick . and, i'm patel, morden jenrick. and, i'm trying to think who else might be a bad knock . sorry. be a bad knock. sorry. >> badenoch. yeah. >> badenoch. yeah. >> imagine they're all in position and they do manage to retain their seats. which of those would you most fancy to try and mount an effective opposition to? as labour supermajority? >> think i'd, i'd have to wait

and see before i made a decision like that. and i don't have to make the decision, but, before i was sure . so, it you need. was sure. so, it you need. i mean, it's an awful expression on. but you need an attack dog. yes you need somebody who would be. no, not somebody grand and no. and two grand to say anything rude about the labor party. >> no one to professor professorial. you need somebody who can take the gloves off, right? >> you absolutely do . which of >> you absolutely do. which of those people? i'm not quite sure which. >> how about penny mordaunt? i mean, i say her because there's a sunday express poll today. >> good. and she's been quite goodin >> good. and she's been quite good in the house of commons and she's been taking part in these debates, albeit with a very impressive blow dry. >> and she's been taking the fight to labour. she was the one who said at the tory party conference last year, stand up and fight it. but what do you think? well, she's got recognition because of the coronation. >> she's got. >> she's got. >> yes, yes, that won't , that >> yes, yes, that won't, that won't carry for long in opposition. but well they, she might have , plenty of fight.

might have, plenty of fight. i think she does show she has plenty of fight. >> might be effective to have a woman as well, just to keep on reminding labour about their lack of female leadership. >> it doesn't matter whether it's men or a woman . it matters it's men or a woman. it matters whether the person is effective. some women are brilliant leaders and some are hopeless. and the same with men . so it's not about same with men. so it's not about men and women, but get somebody tough , i think, is the tough, i think, is the conclusion here. >> alexander. alexander downer, thank you very much indeed for joining me this morning. great to speak to you. coming up next on the anniversary of jo cox's murder today, rempe are facing unprecedented threats. i'll be joined by lord walney, the independent government adviser on political violence and disruption, for his take. don't go anywhere

welcome back to gb news. you're

watching the camilla tominey show. now, earlier this week, nigel farage vowed not to be bullied or cowed after a protester threw objects at him dunng protester threw objects at him during an open top bus tour through barnsley. let's just take a look at that. okay . take a look at that. okay. next stop . next stop. >> raisi . yeah >> raisi. yeah >> raisi. yeah >> for those listening on the radio, you then see police officers cart the protester away. nigel farage then addressed the attack on him dunng addressed the attack on him during a speech in great yarmouth, and said he would not surrender to the mob. but mps are facing unprecedented threats to their safety. so what can be done to discuss this ? i'm joined done to discuss this? i'm joined now by the former labour mp and independent adviser to the government on political violence and disruption, lord walney .

and disruption, lord walney. nice to see you this morning, lord walney. thank you for joining me. i mean, it's quite sad actually, and depressing that we're discussing this topic again on the eighth anniversary of jo cox's murder . again on the eighth anniversary of jo cox's murder. i again on the eighth anniversary of jo cox's murder . i know of jo cox's murder. i know you've written a report on this. you've looked at these matters very closely. on one day it's a milkshake, on another day it's pieces of cement. but it strikes me that mps are facing unprecedented threats to their safety . would you agree with safety. would you agree with that analysis? >> yes , i do it is. it is deeply >> yes, i do it is. it is deeply alarming that the budget for the protection of members of parliament has had to be so greatly increased in, in recent months, and is now being extended to all candidates at the election campaign. you've got mps and now candidates who are being told it's not safe for them to use public transport, mps candidates are now routinely having to log their campaign events with the police to ensure that there can be a police

presence, and you've got the extraordinary situation where a number have had to be given the kind of close protection that actually has only usually been offered to the to very senior ministers in national security roles. home secretary and defence secretary , all of us defence secretary, all of us remember , at this time eight remember, at this time eight years ago , i think many of us years ago, i think many of us were watching the football england, wales when the awful news about our friend jo being killed. we've had sir david amess who's been stabbed, murdered since then . and murdered since then. and unfortunately, the threat level remains extremely high for people on the front line of politics. >> are you confident that mps are getting the right help and advice? because we've seen, obviously, verbal attacks . obviously, verbal attacks. that's quite commonplace. we've seen physical attacks like the ones on farage recently. we've also seen mps own homes and offices surrounded by mobs,

particularly when it comes to those campaigning for pro—palestinian sort of causes, equally, we had rosie duffield, the labour mp, saying that she couldn't attend her hustings in canterbury this week because she feared the reaction from some campaigners in response to what she said about the transgender debate. and yet i've spoken to mps and they feel there's an inconsistency when it comes to sort of parliamentary advice and guidance on security. sometimes they have a surgery and there are people outside and sometimes there are not. it's asking too much of the police to be policing every mp surgery across the length and breadth of the land. but does more have to be done ? because it strikes me that done? because it strikes me that they are becoming increasingly vulnerable ? vulnerable? >> jul yeah, well, the constituent services across the country, as you say, do now need to be policed. that is the sad reality. but you're right that there is a real inconsistency and misunderstanding and that

can be within police forces. and i think the wider way in which all of us look at, the need, the right to protest and the right to freedom of speech, and i think too often in, in laudably wanting to protect that, confuse is the kind of aggressive intimidation that actually many mps and candidates are being subjected to as an expression of vital expression of democracy, where actually is an attempt to cow people unacceptably and often just make them afraid and try to intimidate them into doing what you want. and we should be much clearer that that kind of aggressive, aggressive targeting of people is not acceptable . and i'd like to see acceptable. and i'd like to see the police doing more to be able to enforce that, particularly on the on the issue of , to enforce that, particularly on the on the issue of, mobs to enforce that, particularly on the on the issue of , mobs that the on the issue of, mobs that are activists that gather

outside people's homes and the way in which we've seen political meetings at local council meetings being stormed of late on issues that are completely unrelated to the agenda , and in in a highly agenda, and in in a highly aggressive and intimidating fashion, is not should not be part of our democracy and we should be firm in saying no to it. >> no. you wrote a very, thorough report on this entire issue of the right of political protest, where the line is drawn , if it ends up turning into intimidation and harassment of mps. what's happened to that report now? because obviously , report now? because obviously, when we last spoke on my show, that was before the election had been called, i think you had got positive mood music from the conservatives that they wanted to adopt some of your recommendation . what happens now? >> well, i, i got the i got the report finally published , but, report finally published, but, and i had a good meeting with, home office minister at the time, and we were talking, well,

privately at the time about, about measures that they were going to bring forward quite quickly. and then within 24 hours, the general election was called. so i'm, i'm pleased that that some of those measures are explicitly, committed to by the conservative party. in their manifesto, labour understandably has said, look, we haven't been engaged, haven't had a chance to read this in the way that ministers have . have they've ministers have. have they've been clear that they're going to go through it very carefully . go through it very carefully. and i'm really encouraged that they, they, they publicly and in conversation with me, they, they recognise the importance of being able to keep candidates safe, to be able to set the right boundaries so that we can protect the right to protest, which is sacrosanct in our democracy, but we can actually do so in a way which protects and can actually champion the, the, the, the society that we're lucky to live in, where we can decide our future through the

ballot box rather than intimidating people in all the many ways that we're seeing at the moment . the moment. >> just to put you get you to put your former labour, labour mp hat on for a moment, this talk of a supermajority and this idea of a kind of electoral wipe—out could consign conservatism to the back benches for some years to come. do you worry that if there is that labour supremacy in the house of commons, that the debate gets overtaken just by left wing voices, and the right might be increasingly shut out? >> well, i've been saying to conservative people, i know for some time that if you think there is going to be a labour victory at this election, you actually should want them to win pretty big, because the danger of a narrow labour majority is that that rump of kind of corbyn lite, very left wing members of mp who, very left wing mps who remain part of the party can call the shots

disproportionately . so actually, disproportionately. so actually, i think a bigger majority will will help labour in being able to set priorities for change in the country. now, none of us had really anticipated the quite what has been happening to the tories and the potential size of the majority that that that is going to bring. but i think if you're on the labour side, you need to be focused on how you can drive the kind of scale of change which is needed across our economy and our public services, which is difficult . services, which is difficult. and you want a majority to do that, and you probably think that, and you probably think that the collapse of the tory party is maybe, if you're being candid, a worrying thing, but probably is a you problem for the conservatives rather than labour's problem . labour's problem. >> yes, indeed. thank you so much, lord warnie, forjoining much, lord warnie, for joining us this morning. great to speak to you . up next, i'm going to be to you. up next, i'm going to be speaking to alan evans, a former senior civil servant and political historian, about his

new book, don't go anywhere. we're going to be discussing whether the civil service needs to be reduced in see you in moment.

welcome back to the camilla tominey show we're going to discuss in a moment whether what liz truss referred to as the blob has become too powerful. but before that, let's have a chat with michael portillo. hello. >> about to win in britain. we're going to be talking about the. we're going to be talking about the right. we're going to be talking about whether farage and the conservatives can possibly team up after the election. we're also going to be talking about whether in france, a 28 year old jordan bardella , a 28 year old jordan bardella, is going to become the prime minister on the elections there on the 30th of june, in the 7th of july, in arts, we're going to be talking about a spectacular swan lake at the royal albert hall. and you may not know, but

this is english wine week. and |, this is english wine week. and i, of course, are going to be trying some english wines on air. >> thank you very much indeed for that. michael. i don't ever get to try english wines on air, but that's probably a good thing because i haven't drank for years and it would be a disaster if i did. let's talk about the civil service now. i'm delighted to be joined by alan evans, who is a former senior civil servant, now a political historian, and he's here to share his new book, the intimacy of power, which i'll just put up there so you can have a good look. alan, come on. let's let's, let's let's get into what liz truss accused the civil service of, which was having too much power . she said that the much power. she said that the blob had taken over. in fact, i remember having this conversation with her in person. she said the trouble is with being prime minister is that you pull on a lever and the civil service pulls in the opposite direction, and you can't ever get anything done. is that a fair analysis or not? i think it's totally unfair . it's totally unfair. >> is it having worked in number 10, having worked in many departments, the ministers who know what they want and you've

got michael portillo on shortly, who he knew what he wanted. defence secretary, the ministers know what they want. we'll sit down their views, set out their vision, work courteously with their civil servants. and i find in my experience that ministers who criticise the civil service without a justification, it's normally because they can't either articulate their views or for whatever reasons, are not powerful enough to win the argument. >> well, let's give the counter narrative to that, because we had a couple of ministers, priti patel and dominic raab, accused of being too robust in expressing a view that they were getting frustrated with their civil servants. they expressed their frustrations and then they were sort of accused of bullying. so can there also be just a disconnect between ministers wanting to carry out quite a radical agenda and civil servants saying, no, no, no, you can't . can't. >> i haven't seen that happening. i mean, there's no cause for bullying and harassment by ministers or civil servants. of course that's that's out. but as i say, i

repeat what i say a civil, a minister who knows exactly what he or she wants is much more popular with civil servants than one who doesn't. and that's not a political statement. if the minister comes in and says, this is what i want to achieve, tell me the pros and cons of different ways of doing it. that goes down far better with the civil service and a minister who comes in and says, well, i'm not quite sure. what do you think i should do? and the best ministers are the ones who give clear guidance, who are courteous with their civil service and know exactly where they want to go. but have we historically had civil servants and tory ministers rubbing each other up the wrong way? >> because despite all attempts to be impartial, that the civil service is largely left leaning and so doesn't necessarily agree with the agenda that any government on the right is asking them to carry out. >> well, again, i don't really believe that. if you look at my book, the section on margaret thatcher, margaret thatcher was extremely dominant in what she wanted to achieve. she had in her private office at number 10, people like charles powell and bernard ingham, who were very robust in defending her argument

, in making sure the rest of whitehall understood what she wanted to do and her agenda was delivered. now, that doesn't seem to me like the civil service taking control of policy as far as i can see. >>— as far as i can see. >> although when we look back to the referendum campaign and the aftermath of brexit, we know, for instance , that the foreign for instance, that the foreign office and the mandarins there were disgusted by this result. >> well, i agree with that. and, so they're not impartial then? no.andi so they're not impartial then? no. and i suspect that the head of the, the foreign office, who made comment on the way in which he voted in the, yes, referendum, probably regrets either doing that. >> that was lord mcdonald, who was then the head of the fco. he disclosed to colleagues that he voted remain in the brexit referendum , doesn't that blow referendum, doesn't that blow all claim of impartiality out of the window ? in fact, how can the window? in fact, how can anyone be truly impartial ? i anyone be truly impartial? i know there's this, aim for civil servants to act in absolute neutrality. surely it's impossible if you're that angry about brexit, not to let that affect your work. well if you're

really so angry about a policy, you can't go along with it. >> you resign from the civil service. but i think on the whole, you've pulled up one example, which is fine, but on the whole, civil servants are loyal, trustworthy. they want to articulate what the government of the day. and if there's a change of government after the next general election, i guarantee that civil servants in all departments will be up for change. they will be keen to implement their new ministers wishes and partly they want to show that the civil service is capable of change, capable of doing things differently and capable of working for a different government. >> is the civil service capable of being reduced in size? the tory manifesto has suggested that the numbers should go back to pre—pandemic levels. in a general sense, alan has the civil service got too wide and unwieldy? >> anthony segaert wide and unwieldy? the numbers have definitely gone up as a result. >> they'll tell me the numbers approximately well, the numbers were approximately 400,000. >> if you go back to pre—pandemic days, and i think i haven't looked them up, they're around 600,000. so it's enormous. it's a lot more. >> don't quote me on that. no.

all right. but approximately so they've gone up maybe by 200,000. that's too many isn't it. >> it's a large number. i don't know what numbers you need. what is important, it seems to me, is come the general election . let's come the general election. let's assume, for the sake of argument, as the polls say, that, starmer wins. he will come in and have his missions and stuff like that. he will then need to make a decision on how many people in each department they need to deliver this. now, itake they need to deliver this. now, i take your point that there is a good thing in trying to reduce the number of civil servants to the number of civil servants to the number of civil servants to the number necessary , but it's the number necessary, but it's very difficult to say what that number should be. >> how many civil servants were there under thatcher? i don't know, okay. but we think i think it must have been far less than 400,000, i suspect it was about the same number, but you ask me questions i didn't know about beforehand. sorry to be fair, i looked up some statistics. >> to be fair, alan, i should have looked them up. so don't worry about that. so the size we think has got bigger. but then back to that impartiality thing. you just reminded me of it because you mentioned keir

starmer. there is a problem arguing impartiality when somebody like sue gray, who was a career civil servant , then a career civil servant, then ends up being chief of staff for the labour leader , that then the labour leader, that then suggests that all along she's harboured these left wing tendencies that may or may not have informed her work. >> well, i don't know the inner workings of sue grey's mind, and that wasn't also something i didn't think you talk about. let me just make a slightly different point. if i may, which is if starmer wins on the 4th of july, on the friday the 5th of july, on the friday the 5th of july, saturday 6th of july and sunday the 7th of july, he will appoint around 100 plus ministers. the vast majority of those ministers will have no experience whatsoever of government. they'll have done precious little training. he has never been a minister, the vast majority have not been a minister and what the new ministers, at whatever level, will do when they come into office, will turn to the civil service to look for advice . service to look for advice. they'll turn in the first instance to the private office, which is what my book is about. and coming back to your original question, camilla, the civil servants in the private office

will like best a minister who says, this is what i want to achieve. these are my strategic objectives. now tell me how best i can achieve them. this is what i can achieve them. this is what i think. will that work or do we need to tweak it at all? and as part of that discussion to pick up your other point, they may say, have we got the right number of civil servants or could we lose some here or there, or could we move them around elsewhere and that is why the handover is going to be so interesting to see how it goes. brilliant. >> alan alan evans, this is your book, the intimacy of power. there. there we have it. do get it. if you want to get all of the insider scoop basically on the insider scoop basically on the inner workings workings of whitehall, i will be back tomorrow to cover the 7:00 hour. i'll be back here next sunday at 930. in the meantime, have a fabulous sunday and a father's day. and here, i think, is some weather. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on gb

news . news. news. news. >> hello and welcome to your gb news weather update brought to you by the met office. for the second half of the weekend. there's sunny spells and showers, some longer spells of rain. however, it will be largely dry in the southeast where it will be feeling warmer too. through into the morning then still plenty of scattered showers across the country . showers across the country. these a little bit heavy at times. we've also got some longer spells of rain to sweeping its way southwards across scotland and into parts of northern ireland. plenty of sunny spells in between those showers , though, and feeling a showers, though, and feeling a little bit warmer across the southeast, where we'll start to see highs of 21, maybe even 22 celsius in those longer spells of sunshine . plenty of blustery of sunshine. plenty of blustery winds as we head into sunday afternoon, particularly across the north—west of scotland, where we'll see those outbreaks of rain. but generally that rain clearing to the far south of scotland and turning largely dry across the far north of scotland by the evening, though still a fair amount of cloud around here, outbreaks of rain across southern parts of scotland starting to break up a little

into parts of northern ireland by the time we reach the afternoon, and then elsewhere , afternoon, and then elsewhere, it should be turning largely dry, though there still will be the odd shower around in places across central areas and southern areas of the uk to through into the evening across central and southern uk. it should be a largely drier night than the previous night. however, there still will be the odd outbreak of rain across scotland, northern england and parts of northern ireland, perhaps with the odd heavier outbreak as well. still, plenty of cloud around overnight too, which means, on the whole, another fairly mild night on offer to start the new working week . so for monday then it week. so for monday then it should be a largely drier day across central and southern parts of the uk. still a chance of the odd shower, but plenty of sunshine, particularly if you compare it to the weekend. a bit of a cloudier picture across the northern half of the uk. still plenty of those showers , which plenty of those showers, which could still be heavy and thundery in places , but once thundery in places, but once again the south—east catching the highest of those temperatures with highs of around 22 celsius. bye for now .

around 22 celsius. bye for now. >> looks like things are heating up boxt boilers sponsors of weather on gb news

well. >> good morning to you. happy father's day, and welcome to sunday with michael portillo. i hope that the next two hours of debate, culture and world affairs will chase away the clouds of confusion to brighten up this summer. sunday, we are at the halfway mark in the general election campaign . general election campaign. postal voters will be casting their ballots quite soon and everything will be decided in less than three weeks. the parties have published their manifestos, although other events are probably more significant. nigel farage's

decision to lead the reform party