lam >> hello. good evening. i am michael portillo, bringing you state of the nation. tonight we assess the poll that suggests that not one tory minister, not even the prime minister himself, is safe. i'll discuss whether election night will be a succession of portillo moments north of hadrian's wall. the scottish national party has issued its manifesto and boldly declared itself to be the most left wing party, and promised an independent scotland would re—enter the european union. i'll be looking at the match made in hell as vladimir putin visits north korea and signs a mutual defence pact with kim jong un, and our speech to the former lord chancellor, sir robert buckland, who has called for an amnesty for covid fines. state of the nation stars bts now . now. i'll be joined by my panel historian and broadcaster tessa

dunlop and associate comment editor of the telegraph , mumtaz editor of the telegraph, mumtaz ahmed. now it's time for the news bulletin with polly middlehurst . middlehurst. >> michael, thank you and good evening to you. well, the top story from the newsroom tonight is that a new poll is forecasting the worst election defeat for the conservative party in its nearly 200 year history. yougov's latest study projects 425 seats for labour, which is 125 more than they won in 2019. that would leave the tories with just 108 seats and the lib dems with 67, 20 going to the snp and five seats for reform. i'm as far as the economy is concerned and away from the election, for the first time in nearly three years, inflation has fallen to the bank of england's 2% target. that rate has in turn boosted hopes of an interest rate cut in the

coming months. most analysts were forecasting that drop, which is down from 2.3% in april. the prime minister, rishi sunak , said the news was proof sunak, said the news was proof that the government's difficult decisions were paying off. laboun decisions were paying off. labour, though, warned the cost of living isn't over crisis rather isn't over and prices are still going up . now the rather isn't over and prices are still going up. now the snp is promising another referendum on scottish independence and has unveiled plans to rejoin the european union . unveiled plans to rejoin the european union. in unveiled plans to rejoin the european union . in launching european union. in launching their manifesto today. the leader, john swinney, says he also wants to see an end to the two child benefit cap. scottish labour criticised the first minister, saying he's woefully out of touch and elsewhere george galloway pitched himself as the antidote to both labour and reform, as he launched his workers party manifesto. he says he wants a referendum on the transition to net zero and promised to scrap london's ultra

low emission zones. now a police constable working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been arrested over alleged bets made relating to the timing of the general election. the metropolitan police said the officer was taken into custody on suspicion of misconduct in a pubuc on suspicion of misconduct in a public office and has since been bailed pending further inquiries. a spokesperson for the gambling commission has said tonight they're investigating the possibility of offences concerning the date of the uk election . the labour leader, sir election. the labour leader, sir keir starmer, has called just stop oil pathetic after activists from the group targeted the ancient site of stonehenge in wiltshire. video posted online shows two campaigners, who've both since been arrested running towards the monument and throwing orange powder paint all over it. rishi sunak also called it a disgraceful act of vandalism. their demonstration comes ahead of the expected arrival of thousands of visitors for the summer solstice tomorrow .

summer solstice tomorrow. meanwhile, in north korea, kim jong un has taken to the road in a russian limousine after it was gifted to him by vladimir putin dunng gifted to him by vladimir putin during his trip to the country. the russian president and the nonh the russian president and the north korean leader signed a new dealin north korean leader signed a new deal in pyongyang, making a vow of mutual aid if either of their countries is attacked. putin has now left north korea and gone on his way to vietnam . that's the his way to vietnam. that's the news. for the latest stories, do sign up to gb news alerts, scan the qr code on your screen or go to gbnews.com/alerts . to gbnews.com/alerts. >> thank you polly. good evening again. i'm michael portillo, gb news presenter and a former conservative member of parliament. indeed, in 1997 i was a fairly prominent member of the conservative cabinet as the conservatives headed for defeat after 18 years in office under margaret thatcher and john major, opinion polls suggested a massive majority for labour, but

as i recall they were somewhat discounted. as i said on this programme yesterday, i more than most feared the worst when a few days before the election, a poll taken in my constituency suggested that i was just three points ahead of labour and there was plenty of scope for liberal democrats to vote tactically to oust me . so defeat was on my oust me. so defeat was on my mind. the day before the election , i was, as usual, far election, i was, as usual, far from my constituency, campaigning in the west country , campaigning in the west country, when a journalist asked me were i to lose the next day, what would i hope for.7 i replied, to lose with dignity . on election lose with dignity. on election day at 10 pm, i was in the bbc studio with jeremy paxman. when the exit poll was released. it revealed accurately that labour would win by an overall majority of about 180. i was amazed that paxman didn't ask me about my own seat. i felt sure that it was lost in such a landslide, but maybe paxman was distracted by neil kinnock, the former labour leader who joined us in the studio that night and dismissed the exit poll as implausible . i can see why he, implausible. i can see why he, having lost two elections, would find the revelation of a labour landslide personally very hard to take. there can be

humiliation in victory as well as in defeat. candidates an election always know the result before it's announced publicly. you can see the piles of ballot papers arranged by candidate, andifs papers arranged by candidate, and it's clear which is the biggest. and also the returning officer reads the result privately to the candidates before the public declaration. and ours having done so, asked if every candidate was happy, ecstatic, i replied at the confirmation that i had lost . confirmation that i had lost. that was partly graveyard humour, partly because the labour victor, stephen twigg, looks shattered. after all, his life was about to be upended , life was about to be upended, but partly because i was genuinely relieved the conservatives were reduced to a rump of 165 seats. in my view, they'd be out for at least ten years. they were then, as now, deeply divided . had i held my deeply divided. had i held my seat, i would have been expected to contest the leadership . there to contest the leadership. there was little chance that the new leader would be prime minister. it seemed to me then that with my defeat, a burden had been lifted from my shoulders and as it turned out, three conservatives would lead the party without reaching number 10. and each of them, i think, had a miserable time as leader of the opposition. of course,

even if i could see the advantage of being out , that advantage of being out, that didn't remove the sense of shame at losing a safe seat and coping with the disappointment of my remaining supporters. before the pubuc remaining supporters. before the public announcement of my result, i watched television as david mellor and james goldsmith traded blows after the count in putney, where david had lost, and i resolved to make a gracious speech, if i possibly could, in defeat . later, there could, in defeat. later, there was a welcome opportunity to be jovially very rude to jeremy paxman when he asked me if i was ready to drink hemlock . my ready to drink hemlock. my defeat was a surprise to most, even if to not me, and it became known as the portillo moment in my judgement, a portillo moment has to be the unforeseen defeat of a prominent government minister, and that is now very difficult in the present election, as most cabinet ministers are expected to be unseated. as savanta poll published today suggests, astonishingly, that even the prime minister, rishi sunak could lose in richmond. so according to my definition, there can be no portillo moment because even his defeat would be no surprise. but it would be an

historic moment without any precedent that would blot out all portillo moments like me , all portillo moments like me, sunak would feel keenly the disappointment and humiliation like me , he would probably be like me, he would probably be secretly relieved, and i know that his speech conceding defeat would be deeply gracious . would be deeply gracious. joining me, one who served in the same cabinet as i did, former conservative health secretary, now a liberal democrat, stephen dorrell , as democrat, stephen dorrell, as well as the associate editor at the telegraph , mumtaz ahmed. the telegraph, mumtaz ahmed. stephen, this poll is simply astonishing. i feel quite shaken by it because it takes us into unprecedented territory. the annihilation of the party in government , uncertainty, even as government, uncertainty, even as to which of the two parties would which would become the loyal opposition, his majesty's loyal opposition. what's your reaction to the poll? >> well, the poll is certainly extraordinary , it as you said, extraordinary, it as you said, it's without precedent. the conservative party often claims and has reasonable basis for

claiming to be a uniquely successful political enterprise in the democratic world. there is no precedent in the conservative party's history for a defeat on the scale of any of the three mrp polls published today, of which the most dramatic is the one that you've been referring to from the daily telegraph it's extraordinary that in that poll it's very it's very uncertain. it's almost statistical quirk that the conservative party remains the second largest party in the house of commons, and the liberal democrats are narrowly third as a committed liberal democrat, i obviously hope that that those roles are reversed. the other point i would just like to draw out , actually, is like to draw out, actually, is that although we have both argued in the past for the first past the post system, one of the things this poll demonstrates is that 60% of the electorate would be represented by 30% of the

members of the next house of commons. now, at a time when people feel that politics doesn't speak for them, i certainly hold no brief for reform. but reform voters would be massively underrepresented if these poll numbers came anywhere near right . near right. >> may i ask you? i mean, obviously you would celebrate the success of your own party, but is there a further constitutional danger if the liberal democrats, who are much closer in their views to the labour party, became the official opposition? is it not better constitutionally? you know, if the conservatives were at least represent or appear to represent a different point of view , are the main opposition? view, are the main opposition? >> well, i would argue better still , that the house of commons still, that the house of commons represented more accurately the range of opinions within the electorate, including , of electorate, including, of course, the liberal democrats, including the current conservative party and including reform, reform would be on these numbers the most unrepresented view in the house of commons.

and what is reform? it's a protest against our political system. yeah. >> and nigel farage is , of >> and nigel farage is, of course, in favour of electoral reform. mutaz. this, poll is published by the telegraph. can you give us some background? it seems to have been conducted over ten days or something, which i'm slightly surprised at 20,000 participants. what kind of faith do you have in it, and do you think it represents a change that's occurred during this election campaign, or are we are we having sort of different snapshots of the same , different snapshots of the same, of the same, electoral position and it looks different from different angles. >> it's a much bigger poll than normal polls. so normal polls poll around 2000 to 3000 people. this is 20,000. it's conducted over a longer period of time. it uses a model that in 2017 was pretty accurate in predicting that jeremy corbyn would do better than people expected. so it's a poll that i trust. i think something has changed since reform came into the campaign, and since ed davey

started campaigning, he's had a much better campaign than people care to admit on carers. i mean , care to admit on carers. i mean, if you if you look at his election broadcast, it's really touching because it's a personal story. so everything that could have gone wrong for sunak have lost two weeks has gone wrong in a disastrous way. but i actually disagree with you . i think the disagree with you. i think the loss of sunak seat and ten other ministers is unforeseen. people are choosing not to believe this poll, which is bad news for sunak because the lesson we learned, who is it? >> who's choosing not to believe it? i think most people we've been taking it rather seriously. >> well, i think most people think it's too extraordinary to believe. and that's pretty bad news for sunak, because what the three mrp polls published today show is that small changes in the underlying vote share make huge changes in seats, right? they all show the tories being reduced to a rump less than 165, but it's marginal changes in the vote share that make the difference between 50 seats and 100 seats. now, sunak, we want

people to believe that, you know, if they vote tory, they can make the difference because it's true. if 2% of that reform vote went tory, that could be the difference between 50 and 100 seats. yeah, yeah . 100 seats. yeah, yeah. >> provided in the right place it has to be. there has to be a small shift in the right constituencies. the once the, the figures as they are at the moment produce a clear massive majority for labour. and the vote share between the other parties is almost. go to the bookies and take your choice. yes. do you, do you? >> i mean, first of all, i remember that the polls were discounted in 1997, but i didn't think they were being discounted. this time. and we, you know, we've been discussing it very, very seriously . do you it very, very seriously. do you think the polls have any effect on people? i mean, the tory appeal recently, or at least from about half the tories , has from about half the tories, has been be fearful of the supermajority . what do people do supermajority. what do people do about it if they are fearful of the supermajority? how do they stop the supermajority? stop the superm ajority? >> stop the supermajority? >> well, the answer is it

depends on your on your constituency. and i'm, i'm strong very strongly in favour of efficient polling in in information available to the public. ahead of an election because it allows you to make an informed decision in your own constituency. you can now go to these polls and you can see who on the on the evidence is likely to be the contender for first, second or third place in the constituency in which you live. yes. that's never been possible before. yes. >> this is this is this mrp method. and so i mean, we've been showing maps here. but you know, if you see them online you can go on to them interactively. you can click on every constituency. you can see what the result is predicted to be. however let's remember that that is a prediction for the whole country and for every seat based on 20,000 people, 20,000 is indeed ten times as many as 2000, but it's still a tiny proportion of the electorate. >> true, but statistical analysis and there are margins of error and so forth. but you

can analyse the electorate and see what type of voter , from see what type of voter, from what type of background, what what type of background, what what circumstances is likely to support, the parties and that will vary across the country and it will vary through the election. so your point about timing and momentum is important i >> -- >> the proof will be in the pudding, that is to say, on election day, we'll see which of these polls was right. i have to announce , because we've been announce, because we've been talking about rishi sunak, that the candidates for richmond and northallerton are jason barnett, independent count binface, count binface party, daniel callaghan, liberal democrats angie campion, independent louise dickens, workers party of britain, kevin foster, green on full frame rio goldhammer, the yorkshire party niko omilana, independent brian richmond , independent. sir richmond, independent. sir archibald stanton, monster raving loony party , rishi sunak, raving loony party, rishi sunak, conservative. lee taylor, reform uk and tom wilson, labour. thank you very much to stephen and to

you. i'll see more of you later. mutaz coming up, we'll be assessing the manifesto of the self—proclaimed most left wing party in britain, the scottish national party. see you

soon. and welcome back to state of the nation. i'm michael portillo, the scottish national party today issued its manifesto boldly claiming it to be the most left wing of all the parties in the election . parties in the election. independence remains on the agenda and their manifesto also included a promise that an independent scotland would rejoin the european union. we would, of course, have loved to have had someone from the snp on today, but unfortunately they couldn't be here. i'm delighted to be joined by alba party msp ash regan. ash, welcome to the programme and thank you very much for joining programme and thank you very much forjoining us. much for joining us. >> good evening to you. >> good evening to you. >> as you understand , it is the >> as you understand, it is the

snp position that the general election will form some kind of referendum on the matter of scottish independence, that if the scottish nationalists had a more seats than anybody else, that would be the gateway to another referendum on. >> well, i think that's the way that the snp are setting it out. my that the snp are setting it out. my view would be that they're actually waving the white flag right now. they're basically admitting to scotland that after eight years or so, after pursuing this policy, which basically consists of just begging westminster for a referendum. and let's not forget that no less than five prime ministers have now said no to that request. i think we're all assuming at this point that keir starmer is going to be forming the next government in westminster, and keir starmer has said no to that. so when you're faced with this situation, you have to adapt . situation, you have to adapt. you have to think, right, there must be a democratic route here for scots to make their voice heard on this question. you

know, it's ten years now since the last referendum. and if that is the case, you need to have a strategy , you need to have strategy, you need to have a plan to set out so that scotland can express its democratic choice. and the uk is not offering that right now. and i don't believe that the strategy that the snp are putting forward, i believe that's a failed strategy. that is basically admitting that they don't have a strategy, and it certainly is not going to lead to a referendum, in my opinion . to a referendum, in my opinion. >> might it not be the case though? you you've listed all the wrongs that have been done to the scottish people being denied the opportunity to have another referendum? might it not be that the snp can point out that the british government refuses to have a second referendum? might that not build up support for independence? >> well, in my opinion, we don't especially need to build up support. i don't know if you've seen some of the recent polls, but a majority support for independence is actually the consistent situation in the

polls. now, if that was the case in northern ireland, where you'll know they have a slightly different arrangement there, where the democratic support would lead to a border poll, which can happen every seven years. that's the arrangement they have. there we don't have they have. there we don't have the opportunity for that in scotland. that's not how it was set up. so i think we need to look at a different route there are obviously different ways have been suggested. you'll know margaret thatcher, in her time. and i know we're going back quite a while now , but she said, quite a while now, but she said, that a majority of seats, you know, if the scottish national party got a majority of seats that she would consider that to be the democratic choice of scotland, the snp , have not said scotland, the snp, have not said that in the past. they've obviously had a number of mandates. i think they've had something like five mandates just getting a mandate isn't enough to progress us to independence. that you know, they've been squandering these mandates and we haven't got anywhere . so i represent the anywhere. so i represent the alba party and we are suggesting that the way we get out of this, stalemate or roadblock, if you like, is that we just use the ballot box. so instead of,

waiting for the uk to agree to a referendum, which they've said they won't do that, we in fact just use each and every election. so there is an opportunity here. the snp have not accepted it , but i believe not accepted it, but i believe the best route to independence right now is that scotland take this decision for themselves. they take it into their own hands and the pro—independence parties can put it on the ballot papen parties can put it on the ballot paper. it's actually listed on the ballot paper that people are. so people know what they're voting for , that they're voting voting for, that they're voting for independence. and if all the pro—independence parties combined reach a majority of votes cast, that would be 50% plus one at any election. so it could be a general election or and of course, we have the scottish elections coming up in two years. it could be at that election that instead of asking for a democratic event, that's the language the snp are using, which i think they mean they're asking for another referendum, that actually what you do then is you negotiate to leave the uk. so it's quite clear, it's very clear, pragmatic strategy. it's responding to the situation

that scotland finds itself in. >> thank you. thank you very much indeed, ash regan, for coming on gb news this evening, well, i'm glad to be joined by my panel. we've not seen before this evening. historian and broadcaster tessa dunlop, welcome and muthama from the telegraph was with us before, what did you make of that from ash regan or in particular, what did you make of the snp's performance today, claiming to be the most left wing party, talking about independence again, talking about joining the european union, but with the background, let us just remind people of various scandals within the snp and pretty unimpressive, performance on things like the national health service. >> yeah, well, john swinney has been around the block . i mean, been around the block. i mean, he's almost your generation. michael. derek, thank you so much for starting with an ageist remark. could have been a compliment . remark. could have been a compliment. in fact, i recall him at my parents kitchen table campaigning because he was a perthshire politician , and he

perthshire politician, and he was dull then, and he was decent and dull, and he remains decent and dull, and he remains decent and dull, and his politics remain inconsistent. i mean, ash is the kind of example of a lightning rod independence champion that should really make copper bottomed unionists, i presume. or one of them sweat because actually, what's very tempting is to see the implosion of the snp and the recycling of their current leader as an example of that implosion . one example of that implosion. one is to suppose, oh, well, they're a done force. and look at the telegraph poll. they're only going to get a measly 8 or 10 mps. we don't need to worry about independence . but but about independence. but but what's really interesting and what's really interesting and what the snp are trying to jump ironically on the bandwagon they first established, which is independence because that polling has remained consistently high up to and above 50, particularly young people wanting independence versus the popularity of the snp and snp now trying to reclaim the ground that they initially sowed, trying to reap the rewards and it simply won't work because, as she said, five mandates down the road and they're no nearer to

independence. but you're right, there's all sorts of inconsistencies. nhs performance is worse there. when i grew up in scotland, i knew i could say to my english cousins, i'm better educated than you because i went to a scottish primary school and a scottish state school and a scottish state school . and no longer can school. and no longer can scottish children say that my brother's children in scotland cannot say that to my children. educated in england . educated in england. >> mutaz. it strikes me that the snp may have changed leader at a rather good moment. as it turned out immediately before the general election was called in the united kingdom because, i mean, swinney is moving through this looking like a newish figure . i mean, mrs. sturgeon figure. i mean, mrs. sturgeon and all that went wrong. there she's now two leaders ago. do you think he's able to present the snp as a as a different looking party? >> sturgeon at least had a vision beyond independence . yes. vision beyond independence. yes. which is that she wanted self—id for transgender kids. she wanted to be the sort of woke queen of the green, queen of the world. swinney has almost nothing beyond.i swinney has almost nothing beyond. i will find out. you know, i'll find a way to give

you independence somehow without explaining it. the question for people like ash regan is if i are you saying, by the way, that if swinney had the same emphasis on self—identification of genders that sturgeon had, that he would be doing better? >> is that a popular policy in scotland? >> it's not, but at least it's something i thought. i thought i felt a bit sorry for him today at that press conference. he had almost nothing to say. if you look at their manifesto, it's incredibly thin. you know, their first priority is delivering independence, which you know is not going to happen . their not going to happen. their second priority is ending 14 years of austerity and i assume by that he means tory austerity, which gives you a sense that they don't know how to respond to an incoming labour government, because that's the same message. the question for people like ash regan is if unionist parties win the majority of seats in scotland , majority of seats in scotland, will they stand down? and she doesn't have an answer to that, and they'll come up with all sorts of mathematical equations. you know, most votes and so on, but they don't have a response to the shift across the uk, which is a shift to the left.

and that's a shift against them in quite a dangerous way, because labour is a gateway for scottish people towards unionist politics. it is another left wing party. >> dear panel, i'm so sorry to cut you short. we have a busy programme. we'll talk to you again later , coming up, we'll be again later, coming up, we'll be looking at the match made in hell between vladimir putin and kim jong un. stay with

us. welcome back to state of the nation. i'm michael portillo . as nation. i'm michael portillo. as a former defence secretary, i feel profoundly concerned by the sight of the north korean dictator kim jong un, welcoming russian president vladimir putin. the two leaders signed a defence pact earlier today that includes a pledge of mutual defence. the pact is worrying in the context of ukraine and will increase anxiety amongst our east asian allies such as japan

and south korea. so what to make of this match made in hell? i'm joined now by the defence editor at the evening standard, robert fox, i feel concerned. do you feel concerned? yes, but it's a process that's going on. and i think, michael, we have to think what is in putin's mind behind this. we know why he likes north korea, and he wants and wants a lot of north korea at the moment because he needs, as the daily telegraph reported , 4.5 million telegraph reported, 4.5 million artillery shells per year with at the moment. >> and i don't say its forever nonh >> and i don't say its forever north korea can provide, but what the deal is, is worrying because it looks as if there will be. it's not so hidden an understanding that they will develop nuclear together. and what is worrying about putin's latest round of rhetoric after his alternate international economic forum in petersburg for

ten days or fortnight ago, is he's talking nuclear again? oh, you can't rule out the use of tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons. he had one of his gurus speaking from the platform about about this. can we just attach to it , you know, where he's gone to it, you know, where he's gone on to tonight. he's gone to on vietnam and vietnam. old client. but militarily on the ground and in this incredibly complicated game of two strategies and two strands is crucial that it stays neutral with regard to china . neutral with regard to china. it's almost as worrying his move back towards vietnam . an old back towards vietnam. an old soviet client, as you know, that's almost as thought provoking as the activities in pyongyang today. >> well, well, let's then take them in order. you talked about them in order. you talked about the two countries working together on the development of nuclear weapons. obviously, russia has a highly developed arsenal of nuclear weapons. i think it has more nuclear warheads than the united states

does. so it's fully developed. so on the other hand, north korea has a nuclear weapon. are we talking then about the transfer of technology regarding the delivery vehicles? that is to say, the intercontinental ballistic missiles? is that what . ballistic missiles? is that what. >> and the thing that is worrying that they've been which which worries us, that's an intercontinental weapons that could strike almost anywhere apart from the antarctic zone in the american continent . yeah. the american continent. yeah. and that is and we know that kim jong un plays this strange game of psychological blackmail . and of psychological blackmail. and putin, who i think is getting a bit desperate now because we are in the mature to autumnal phase of the putinist empire . it of the putinist empire. it sounds crazy, but this is what i don't think that we understand in our very bland analysis on the whole, about what putinism

is . what does putin want? i was is. what does putin want? i was with three young journalists prize winners yesterday. we were and three of them had deep experience of russia, including quite recently said, yes, they're russian friends. say to them, frankly, you do not understand russians are russians there we are a great nation. and why does the west deny it? and that's why i think that whoever is going to come into power after july the 4th, and they will have to go to washington within ten days for a major wmmw within ten days for a major summit. it's supposed to be celebratory 75th anniversary of nato. they have no idea of what's going to hit them. >> i have often come across that attitude amongst russians myself. yeah let me find out more about what you mean about this vietnam point. i confess to ignorance. what is it that vietnam can offer to putin? >> it could lock the back door. but there's a big question about vietnam has been playing very cleverly . it's a bit like, deng cleverly. it's a bit like, deng xiaoping. it's communism. but

with a capitalist economy. and they've been very successful and they've been very successful and they've played the americans, they've played the americans, they have played europe very well with that . but what putin well with that. but what putin wants is for them to lock the back door because putin is very, very vulnerable . very vulnerable. >> disentangle that metaphor. what does it mean? >> no, it's not a metaphor. it's physically the back door with the extended borderlands of russia where things are bad at the moment. he's been drawing recruits from there. that law and order is very bad. he is worried about his control, and they look over the border and things are more developed with china . this is a real soup china. this is a real soup because the unknown is what china is going to do. and that's why whoever the defence secretary is, the prime minister and the foreign minister who comes in, they have got a multilayered crisis, a huge crisis involving russia, russia and china , china and russia. and and china, china and russia. and they're trying to outbid each other in the threat stakes at the moment. >> good heavens, robert, that is scarcely reassuring. but thank you very much for your expertise. robert fox . well,

expertise. robert fox. well, apart from the news of that pack that we've been talking about, the white house is concerned with playing down concerns about the health of president biden, who's apparently taken to freezing during public events. italy's prime minister, giorgia meloni, was seen herding the president back into a photo with world leaders after he shuffled aimlessly away from the group. in the last few days, videos and images of the president freezing at a fundraising event went viral, but the white house stated that they were deceptively edited. cheap fakes . deceptively edited. cheap fakes. with me now again is my panel. the historian and broadcaster tessa dunlop and the associate comment editor of the telegraph, mutaz ahmed mutaz. i mean, you are a journalist. what? what about this idea that in some way the images could be fake , they the images could be fake, they could be fake, and some of them will be fake. >> but the reason these ai images or ai videos or weirdly edhed images or ai videos or weirdly edited videos are a problem for the white house is that people

have seen enough of biden freezing in real life and actually being. how do you know? >> we've seen him freezing in real life? if it could be i well, we've seen it in his speeches. >> we saw it in the last campaign. there are enough videos of him freezing on a news channel, you know, during commentary that people have seen that makes it believable that he would do it again. so that's why. and it's the quantity of videos that's a problem for them . when there's a large quantity and a small number of them are i and a small number of them are i and a small number of them are i and a much bigger chunk are real, then the ai almost becomes irrelevant. and that's their that's their big issue . that's their big issue. >> tessa, do you think it was an effective tactic by the white house to say, these are ai deceptive fakes ? deceptive fakes? >> i suppose i was looking at that press conference. i felt very sorry for the messenger, who was asked to sort of shovel it under the carpet because in many respects it drew attention to it. it's not going away, this one. it's perception versus reality. but as mustafa said, it doesn't matter because it's now become biden's reality, which is bush fighting these questions about his ability connected to

his age. and i don't understand where you go from here. he's got a vice president who isn't presidential material, who i think polls worse than he does despite these , you would call despite these, you would call them ageist. in many ways, it's about his competence , isn't it, about his competence, isn't it, michael? i mean, you may well laugh, but i googled you if you'll forgive me. i discovered you're a decade. a whole decade younger and fresher than our american president. do you feel in a decades time, even if you were as as complicit as are you and i, you could be leading the free world, going up for election? >> well, i think that depends entirely on the individual. but what we're dealing with in the case of biden is what we think, what we think is evidence that the man is having trouble holding it together in public. >> but i would even argue, even if he wasn't. and i agree, that is what these videos suggest and more broadly, comments that he wasn't the man he once was and briefings that get leaked and commentary from his own side . commentary from his own side. but even if he wasn't, i would ask in ten years, would that be the time of your life when we're looking down the barrel of a deeply worrying world that your

defence? evening standard man robert fox just outlined? is he the man to lead that? and would you be the man in ten years time? >> but mutaz the two presidential candidates are fairly close to each other in age . i mean, i mean, it looks to age. i mean, i mean, it looks to me as if there's a bit of a difference in their capability and performance, and then i suppose the question is, does the condition of the president make enough difference for him to lose? i mean, at the moment it's looking a bit tricky for trump to put together the sort of coalition that would carry him over the line . can the him over the line. can the condition of the president, i suppose, lead at least to a number of people not voting, which might get trump over the line? what do you think it can make a big difference when the president, whose competence mental competence is under question, is running on the matter of competence itself, they're trying to paint trump as being incompetent, as being not presidential, as being unable to lead while they have a candidate who struggles to get off the stage . stage. >> that's the issue for them. and it's not really about age. he's not much older than trump,

as you say. it's about the appearance of age . and biden's appearance of age. and biden's biggest issue, i think, is we can compare him over the decades he's been in politics so long that we can actually track his deterioration. and so it becomes an undoubtable that something has happened here. >> and sadly, what one sees in, dear friends, the conditions once they once they get underway, can move quite rapidly. >> but here i think that we're being a bit disingenuous, because we're also afraid of being ageist. i refuse to believe that you would concede in ten years time. it's the best time for you to go forward and lead the free world. 81 year olds. i was talking, in fact, to robert in the green room, and he was sitting in between the ages of biden and of trump. and he agreed that, you know, he's still a very good writer, but perhaps doesn't have quite as rich a vocabulary as he once did have. that might have an advantage as a journalist, because you can write shorter and faster , but it doesn't and faster, but it doesn't necessarily if you are trying to face down. i think the most dangerous set of geopolitical circumstances we've seen since the 1950s. >> i dare say most of us wish that the american people had

served up a better choice than than they have. yeah, but but this is this is what we're faced with. mutaz. let me put you on the spot. do you think it's going to make the difference in the presidential campaign? >> i think it will. i think trump you think it will? i think it will. but can i just say yes? i think keir starmer is too old to be prime minister. he's much younger than joe biden , but he younger than joe biden, but he has the appearance of a tired man. i think donald trump is not too old to be president. so it is about it's more about appearance to an extent. >> i would just worry about his ability to travel in that aeroplane. you know, he's got a lot of countries to cover very, very, very interesting last remark from mutaz, who revealed to me earlier that he was born in my constituency. >> but after i was defeated, is that right? after i was defeated? thank you very much to my panel coming up, i'll be speaking to a man who faced thousands of pounds in fines for breaching covid restrictions and to the justice secretary who's called

welcome back to state of the nation. i'm michael portillo in 2021, former mr universe winner eddie elwood took the decision to keep open his gym in hartlepool as a form of protest against the lockdowns . after against the lockdowns. after learning the news of his friend's tragic suicide , eddie friend's tragic suicide, eddie was taken to court, ordered to pay a was taken to court, ordered to pay a fine of £30,000 and a subsequent £56,000 in court costs, and he spent £11,000 on his legal fees to this day, eddie still refuses to pay the fines and costs, maintaining his innocence. 28,000 people have been convicted of covid rule breaches, and nearly 125,000 fixed penalty notices were issued in england and wales dunng issued in england and wales during the pandemic. i'm joined by eddie elwood, good evening, eddie, and welcome to gb news, good evening . first of all, are good evening. first of all, are you able to say a little bit more about the death of your friend that convinced you that you ought to keep your facility

open? >> yeah, well, lockdown one, i lockdown, i shut the gym , i lockdown, i shut the gym, i closed everything, and i waited to see what would the what was really happening, i looked into , really happening, i looked into, the office of national statistics to see who was really dying. and it was evident that it was, over 80s and the majority were over 90. and then six weeks into lockdown, one my friend , arlene foster ex army , friend, arlene foster ex army, veteran committed suicide . the veteran committed suicide. the gym was one of his outlets for his mental health, and it was it was hard for me. >> you you became convinced, did you? there was a link between the inability to go to the gym and the impact on his mental health. >> i've been involved in gymnasiums a long, long time ,

gymnasiums a long, long time, and gymnasiums are essential for people to cope with the mental health. and, alan was getting ptsd help from the army. but when lockdown hit, that was cut off. and then with losing the gym as well , he off. and then with losing the gym as well, he had off. and then with losing the gym as well , he had nowhere to gym as well, he had nowhere to go. he was lost in his own head, so when he did commit suicide, i started looking at how many people were dying at covid compared to how many people were committing suicide at a younger age. and the suicides were five times more under the age of 40 than what covid deaths were at that moment in time. i had another friend who was sectioned another friend who was sectioned a week later. so when that happened, i said, if this goes on further and this further lockdowns when lockdown two came, i said, i'm opening to protest to just help those people with their mental health. >> but then in that case, robert, you set yourself up, as

it were, above the law. you created your own law. the laws of the land said that gyms had to be closed. you defied those laws. why do you think you should not be fined? why do you think you should be the beneficiary of an amnesty? >> because at the end of the day, i was helping people who were at risk to themselves and not at risk to the disease that was getting promoted , that that was getting promoted, that that was getting promoted, that that was your judgement. >> i mean, do you do you think in general that people should be able to make their own judgements about which laws they follow and which they do not? >> i think, once you've done your own own little bit of research and see what's going on, i mean, there we have the politicians had partygate and broke their own rules , partying, broke their own rules, partying, not helping anybody and get £50 fines. where's the equality in that ? i get fined yet people

that? i get fined yet people might say, well you broke the rules , you deserve to be fined. rules, you deserve to be fined. but where's the equality? that isn't a law supposed to be equal isn't a law supposed to be equal. aren't we supposed to be able to be able a&e. >> as i understand it, you've not paid the fines. what? what is likely to happen to you if you're pursued for the payment? how will, what will they do to you? will they bankrupt you? will they jail you? what lies ahead? >>i ahead? >> i don't know what lies ahead, but like i said , i don't feel. i but like i said, i don't feel. i have not committed any any harm , have not committed any any harm, suffering or loss to anybody. i haven't broke any of god's laws , haven't broke any of god's laws, they came to intimidate me. like, say, peaceful protest is supposed to be a human, fundamental, right, you know? so to peacefully protest was a fundamental right, as well as athletes and as supreme elite athletes and as supreme elite athletes had, exemptions to training gyms through lockdown. yes. and whatever may happen to

you, do you you're keeping this, this subject open. >> you're keeping this issue open. maybe one of your hopes is that if we were affected by another pandemic, that the policies of the government might be different. you you made the point right at the beginning that it was observable, that most of those who were dying were or were elderly. they weren't young. so would you hope that by keeping this issue open , that by keeping this issue open, it might affect future policy? >> i think the issues are should be kept open. i mean, sweden, they didn't follow our severe lockdown measures and they suffered no more than any other country. they kept their gyms open, they kept the work open. they looked after those who needed looking after, you know, we need to look into how to care for those in the younger age categories that are suffering with their mental health, but not suffering with i mean, we didn't really understand the virus in locked up until lockdown one was finished. when

you know everything was opening back up the, the opened, all the fast foods up we were given eat out to help out and that's when things seemed strange to me, it just seemed. how can the mcdonald's and keep all the places closed , thank you very places closed, thank you very much, eddie, for coming on this evening, i should say this, that if you are affected by anything that we've been discussing here, we've been talking about people taking their own lives. we've been talking about mental health. you can contact samaritans from any phone. the number is 116123. well, patrick christys will be taking over in just a moment, patrick, are you there? i am tell us a little bit about your programme this evening. >> yeah, well, i've got quite a lot on, actually. so there's a concern going around that labour might be about to come for your money. and by you, i mean literally everybody, because millionaires are leaving in numbers that only china can

compete with. so when they're talking about taxing people , is talking about taxing people, is actually their economic policy going to end up costing all of us a lot of money? we're going to analyse that. there's obviously a case for the other side of that as well. i've got some exclusive footage as well, which i think is fascinating is somebody who appears to be a labour canvasser on the doorstep who said some very revealing things about his views on keir starmer and indeed other parties . so we'll be discussing all of that. but it's not all about laboun that. but it's not all about labour. of course it's not. bofis labour. of course it's not. boris appears to have turned his back on the conservative party and rishi sunak as well, flirting, showing a bit of leg that he would come out and campaign and then swanning off on holiday. the latest polling shows that nigel could be about to win in the largest swing even to win in the largest swing ever, and rishi could lose his seat. so we'll be talking all of that. and an environmental group is taking the government to court over new oil and gas licences. this cuts right to the heart of democracy, this michael, why don't they stand for election and win? could they just get one ruling from one judge? and then before you know it, we have now changed the way

we do oil and gas forever in this country . we do oil and gas forever in this country. so we do oil and gas forever in this country . so stay tuned for this country. so stay tuned for that. >> yeah, that all sounds very interesting. patrick. i've been saying that i've been quite shaken by today's poll. we don't know whether it's actually what's going to happen, but it takes us into unprecedented territory. raises all sorts of extraordinary constitutional issues. and you'll be touching on that during your busy agenda in your programme in a moment. that's all for me today. i'll be.the that's all for me today. i'll be. the weather is coming up next, patrick will be after that. i'll be back on the show next week. i'm michael portillo. this has been state of the nation. good night. >> looks like things are heating up . boxt boilers sponsors of up. boxt boilers sponsors of weather on gb news. >> hi there and welcome to the latest forecast from the met office for gb news. fine. for most of us during the next 24 hours, clear overnight and then warm sunshine to come for many on thursday. in fact, sunnier skies for the majority on

thursday, although overnight there will be some thicker cloud arriving into the north and northwest of scotland that will tend to sink south ever so slowly, with with a fizzling band of light and patchy rain , band of light and patchy rain, the breeze picking up that cloud and rain reaching northern ireland during the early hours. england and wales meanwhile, clearing skies and with light winds, temperatures falling into the single figures in fact, in some spots 4 or 5 celsius by dawn. so a bit of a chill in the air once again, but it won't last long. there's going to be plenty of sunshine for england and wales. same can't be said for much of scotland and northern ireland. northern scotland sees the best of the sunshine first thing, but for much of central and southern scotland we'll see thicker cloud and some light outbreaks of rain and some light outbreaks of rain and drizzle. at times. northern ireland much of the rain will be towards the north and west, brighter skies towards the south and east. meanwhile, england and wales sunny skies, although there will be a veil of high cloud cirrus in the sky that will turn the sun a little hazy

at times through the morning, temperatures rising quickly, then through the day . less cloud then through the day. less cloud around compared with wednesday, although there will be some fair weather. cloud building across wales into the midlands couldn't rule out the odd light shower from this and later in the day some heavy showers over the continent could just brush the far south—east. but where we've got the sunshine, temperatures up to 23 or 24 celsius, so a warm and fine day for the vast majority. friday begins with cloud once again pushing into western and northern scotland. northern ireland and some outbreaks of rain move in more persistent wet weather towards the end of the day. elsewhere, staying warm and sunny once more. but for saturday we're going to see a band of showers move across before warm sunshine return on a brighter outlook, with boxt solar sponsors of weather on

gb news. >> it's 9 pm. i'm patrick christie's tonight. >> unfortunately, i don't like keir starmer , so he's one that keir starmer, so he's one that i'm really against. >> rafe footage appears to show a labour campaigner saying some astonishing things and disgraceful scenes at stonehenge. but now eco warriors are taking the government to court in a case that could change britain forever. also you're refusing to tax? >> well, you're refusing to invest in our communities. rachel, please, you barely speak to young people. >> millionaires are fleeing britain . are labour coming for britain. are labour coming for your money and the latest poll shows rishi sunak is about to lose his own seat. >> plus is starmer and the opportunity destroying, aspiration hating labour party. >> now boris johnson has now turned his back on the prime

minister. also tonight