most of their >> set to lose most of their seats and will likely have fewer seats and will likely have fewer seats than the liberal democrats. which means , democrats. which means, according to this new research, the lib dems are most likely to become the official opposition. the new poll looks like this. it's from electoral calculus, andifs it's from electoral calculus, and it's forecast labour will win 450 seats, the lib dems 71 and the conservatives 60. it's likely the reform party, the new research says, will get around 18 seats, including those of nigel farage, richard tice and lee anderson. the forecast labour victory would be more significant than tony blair's landslide election result of 1997, and it would be the largest win by any political party over the last 100 years. well, with just over a week to go until the general election, prime minister rishi sunak and the labour leader, sir keir starmer are about to go head to headin starmer are about to go head to head in another tv debate . if head in another tv debate. if you're watching on tv, we can see pictures of the two leaders

walking towards the historic and beautiful front entrance of nottingham trent university there, where the debate is due to be held. inside, questions from the public starting at around a quarter past eight. live reaction to that right here gb news. meanwhile, labour has confirmed that a party member has been arrested. it follows a police investigation into the sixteen scam concerning some westminster mps. the police investigation relates to at least 12 men who had received unsolicited text messages in the so—called honeytrap scandal . so—called honeytrap scandal. labour says it has administratively suspended the member from the party and can't comment further due to an ongoing police investigation , ongoing police investigation, and the scotland secretary, alister jack, insists he and the scotland secretary, alisterjack, insists he hasn't broken any rules after he admitted to placing three bets on the date of the election. the cabinet minister says he had no inside knowledge of when the

election would take place in spite of bragging earlier that he'd made more than £2,000 from the bet, which he later dismissed as a joke. sir keir starmer says the tories have taken too long to deal with the scandal . scandal. >> i made very clear that if any of my candidates was being investigated in relation to the gambling commission, i'd remove them straight away , which is them straight away, which is what i've done. that's in a sharp contrast to rishi sunak, who took days and days and days before he took action as a wider story here about the choice that the general election next week between carrying on with what we've had for the last 14 years or so, the inaction by rishi sunakis or so, the inaction by rishi sunak is just absolutely in keeping with the way that they've governed for 14 years, or turning the page and starting to rebuild the country . to rebuild the country. >> sir keir starmer that's the news for the latest stories. do sign up to gb news alerts. scan that qr code on your screen right now, or go to

gbnews.com/alerts . gbnews.com/alerts. >> earlier this evening, we brought you another in the series of gb news vote 2020 for the leaders, this time with the leader of the liberal democrats, ed davey. and just in time for our interview came a new poll by electoral calculus mrp, which not only puts the labour party on track for a 250 seat overall majority, but it has the tories losing so many seats that sir ed davey would become the leader of the opposition. gb news political editor christopher hope, caught up with him earlier today, and here's a reminder of what he had to say. >> do you think we need to review the whole of gambling regulation with respect to politics and i really hope after the election, that's what the new government and parliament gets behind. but you bet before politics. well, yeah. place your bet. i've never i haven't bet on this election. no, frankly, i've been to. >> but you bet on election results in the past when you're an mp. >> well, very few. i've never

bet on myself in your lifetime. >> do you want to see britain back in the eu.7 >> back in the eu? >> because you've got a lot of work to do to even be able to contemplate something like that? i wouldn't you wouldn't even go that far. listen, i'll tell you one thing. we can do. let me be frank with you. i think we need a trade deal. we need a trade deal really quickly, you might end up working with minor parties. the one led by nigel farage. will he be happy doing that in the next parliament? >> i share no values at all. the liberal democrats share no >> i share no values at all. the liberal values at all with nigel farage and reform. first of all, on our policy on on cannabis. we want to get rid of the very potent yes , health damaging cannabis. yes, health damaging cannabis. the skunk is often called we want to get it out herbals okay. but yeah so a regulator market like they've done in many states in the united states, canada and european countries that's found to help young people actually, is . is. >> that wokester ed davey . and >> that wokester ed davey. and joining me now is gb news political editor, christopher hope. political editor, christopher hope . christopher, an

hope. christopher, an interesting interview there. of course, he stresses that he has nothing in common whatsoever in terms of values with reform. and yet the poll today, which puts the liberal democrats potentially in the position of becoming his majesty's opposition, owes a lot to the strength of reform . strength of reform. >> that's right. hi, michael. great to be on your show tonight here from the spin room at the bbc in nottingham. we're waiting shortly, starting this last head to head debate of this six week campaign. rishi sunak versus sir keir starmer. and yet that poll that dropped to 5 pm. today, we couldn't share the detail with sir ed davey because the poll hadnt sir ed davey because the poll hadn't been released yet until 5:00, but certainly putting lib dems on 71 mps, making them the leader of the. he'll be the leader of the. he'll be the leader of the opposition. they're the main opposition party. for him. there'll be a big pay rise. he wasn't expecting that, was he, the tory party down on 60 seats. labour 450 and reform on 18 mps from zero. according to this

forecast. which of course, the tory party will say the only poll that matters is next week. look at those numbers, though. it's fascinating because the liberal democrats, mike, will get 11% of the vote and 71 mps reform get 18% and just 18 mps. and that's because, of course, as you know, the lib dems pile up the votes where they can win the seats, whereas the reform are likely to see a kind of rising of the waterline across all of the country, which means fewer breakthroughs for them . fewer breakthroughs for them. but i'm dying to ask you, michael, having someone who voted back in 1997 for the first time, actually, if i may say so, do you detect that feeling in the country that you had to fight against for the tory party when you were standing back in 97, i think things are incomparably worse for the conservatives at the moment are both in terms of the polls and in terms of the morale of the party. there were polls around in 1997 that suggested that the overall majority of labour would be 160, but on the whole, they

were discounted both by politicians and by commentators. it just seemed too extreme . in it just seemed too extreme. in present circumstances, it looks like the conservative party would shake your hand off if they were guaranteed 165 seats and a labour majority of only 160. don't you think ? 160. don't you think? >> yes, i do, i think, i think we've gone way beyond saying it's going to be 1997, because it's going to be 1997, because it's far worse than that. looking at these polls. but we are hearing now from wes streeting, for example, that the shadow health secretary, that he thinks these polls are not at all reflected on the doorstep. here's what he had to say to me a few moments ago. sir keir starmer need to do to win this two two way debate. >> the most important thing keir wants to get across. >> we want to get across, is that we've got a week now in which people need to decide to choose change, and you only get

change if you vote for it . and i change if you vote for it. and i think it's no secret the conservatives haven't run a brilliant election campaign, let's be honest. but the one thing they are doing, i think quite effectively, is to suggest that there's an inevitability about a labour government and they're pretty much saying, put your feet up, don't bother voting labour or yeah, sure, in tight labour tory races. yeah, you can vote for those lib dems or the greens. yeah don't worry because labour's going to get in anyway and we, we feel it in our bones. but in the conversations on the doorstep they just don't reflect these wild polls. i'm still talking to undecided voters in huge numbers a week out from the general election, and to people who voted by post, who said to me just last weekend when i was in the north east, i actually i voted conservative. and when i sort of said, well, you know, is there anything we could have done to win you over? they said, well, you know, you're going to get in anyway. and we do need an opposition. i'm thinking panic stations. i only get a change if you vote

for it. >> the numbers, the electoral calculus, find out now poll tonight we feast on gb news 450 mps, a majority of 250 mps. these are big numbers. i mean, you're you're shouting into the wind here, wes streeting. the howling gale coming down towards you about this, this massive majority you're going to get. >> i've been brought up to believe if it looks too good to believe if it looks too good to be true, it's too good to be true. it doesn't reflect what we're feeling and more than that, i think people should. and i say this actually , i was about i say this actually, i was about to say respectfully to the polling industry, they won't receive it when i say this in that way, which is this is an industry that is addicted to calling it wrong and doing it very loudly. they called it wrong on brexit. they called it wrong on brexit. they called it wrong on brexit. they called it wrong on trump. they called it wrong on trump. they called it wrong on trump. they called it wrong on a number of general elections. it was wrong. completely wrong. look it's not the it's not the it's not the pollsters and it's not the bookies that decide general election. yeah, it's millions of voters and changes in your hands in the polling station or maybe you've just got your postal vote

on the kitchen side or stuck on the fridge and you're still making your mind up. that's your chance to choose change. and you only get change if you vote for it. >> your shadow health secretary week friday, the doctors strike could be your problem. what's your advice to doctors striking starting overnight tomorrow? or they want 35% pay rise. would you give it to them? >> no , not 35. and it's so >> no, not 35. and it's so important that what would he said that this side of the election, what would you give. we're willing to negotiate. and frankly, chris, if i'm health secretary next friday, i won't be negotiating with them on air ehhen be negotiating with them on air either, with great respect for you, just you and me talking. we've got to get them in. yes. you me and millions of viewers. and we've got to get people around the table, haven't we? and to be fair to them, and i'm not happy about the strikes. i think these are unnecessary strikes in the next five days. we're so close to the general election. i wanted them to wait and give me a chance. if i'm the health secretary to sort this out, but we are where we are. i've said that we can negotiate on pay. they've shown a willingness to move on, pay to. therein lies an opportunity. more generally, i'm genuinely angry at the way that junior

doctors are treated. and i mean, the worst case i've seen reported was of a junior doctor whose partner had cancer, got two kids, no flexibility, was shown about where they were placed for work until there was a public outcry. that's a that's a public outcry. that's a that's a terrible example, but i think there's a much broader issue here of disrespect and lack of care shown to people who are there to care for us so we can do better on that. i'm sure you've attracted admiring glances from tories because you say you're happy to use private health care to clear that long waiting list. >> are you surprised by your boss, sir keir starmer, saying he wouldn't use private health care if his children were suffering, for example? >> i'm not surprised because this is really personal. his mum worked in the nhs, had still's disease and they had a conversation which has stuck in keir's heart, which is, you know, she's always said, you know, she's always said, you know , keir, never go private. know, keir, never go private. what i respect about keir is that although he would make that choice, he wouldn't deny that choice, he wouldn't deny that choice to other people. and labour's policy is to try and end the two tier system. yes, by rebuilding nhs capacity so that

we don't have to pay for people to go private. but also in the meantime making sure that if that capacity is there, we will pay that capacity is there, we will pay for people to go private. so that working class people aren't left behind in the way they are at the moment. >> wes streeting now the shadow health secretary, saying that he obviously is facing this doctor's strike decision to make . what would he do about whether to meet their demands with 35% pay to meet their demands with 35% pay rise if he becomes the health secretary at the end of next week, when this election takes place? just going back to that ed davey interview, there, michael, i asked him three times, what will you do if the government tries to increase student tuition fees, which i think is one of the issues, i think, which the government is facing in the next five years, that that £9,000 figure will almost certainly have to go up looking at looking at the trend of the way these universities are worrying about their own, their own finances . so i wonder their own finances. so i wonder whether that's a challenge for him. i think sir ed davey has a, i would argue, quite a good campaign. he's not taking

himself too seriously. he's maybe clowned about a bit to get the images, the pictures used and also try to have a serious message. maybe it's mental health at an amusement park, sewage in lake windermere. i think he's had quite an interesting third party campaign. he's not saying i want to be prime minister like jo swinson was in 2019. he's saying vote for me for local champions. well, it looks like it may be bigger than that. he could be trying to pretend to be or be in fact, the alternative prime minister for the next five years, thank you very much, christopher hope, and i hope you very much enjoy the sunak starmer debate, which you're about to witness up there. i think in nottingham , stephen think in nottingham, stephen poundis think in nottingham, stephen pound is with me now, the former labour mp and william atkinson, the assistant editor at conservativehome. welcome to you both to gb news. good evening. stephen. is this not an extraordinary position where the parties may both the conservatives and the labour party are saying, you must not believe the polls. these polls are not to be believed on the doorstep. we're hearing something very different. >> well, it's very

understandable, isn't it? >> i mean, i can understand entirely understand why people are saying that. because the last thing you want to do is, as has just been graphically explained there by way of streeting, you know, just people, you don't want people just to sit at home. but i thought it was a remarkable interview with ed davey there, who appeared to be talking about the beneficial effects of cannabis. so did you pick up on that? no. yes. >> well, i mean, is this a new liberal democrat policy? >> i mean, it could explain a lot of their policies, to be all honest, in all honesty. >> and he went through that with christopher hope earlier. i mean, it may appear paradoxical on the face of it, that he's in favour, apparently, of legalising cannabis, but he's also in favour of banning smoking because you voted for that too. so anyway. ed davey can explain that wrestling with that? yes. no, i think we all are. william, it's all very well to say we don't believe the polls. things are different on the doorstep. which is what, as i say, labour and conservatives are saying . but if one believes are saying. but if one believes the polls at all, the conservative position appears to be deteriorating . and this is be deteriorating. and this is mildly surprising, because one very often expects the

opposition or. sorry one very often expects the underdog to close the gap as the election approaches. >> well, i think quite frankly, michael, this reflects simply how hated my political party is. i started this campaign thinking that 140 seats, which was itself worse than 1997, would be a very good result. the conservatives. and now i wake up every day hoping that the position hasn't deteriorated enough, that we're definitely going to come third. and i think at this point, it looks odds on that we will and that ed davey will be the next leader of the opposition and the conservatives will have come third in terms of votes behind reform uk. >> what's your justification for saying odds on? i mean, i know that a poll has suggested that this evening it's a bit of a leap from that to odds on that the conservatives will come third. >> well, i must say there's part of it which is just my sort of own political instincts. but i think the general trend has been so obviously to suggest that the conservative position is deteriorating, and i think the various messages that cchq have tried have fallen so flat, that

the general dynamics of the election sort of pointing the way that the conservative party is position is only going to get worse, and in that sense, i know perhaps we've heard a bit too much about conservative figures betting in the last few days, but i would be willing to put a fiver on the conservatives coming third at this point as ghastly an outcome as that would be. >> stephen pound it keeps it keeps striking me that the kind of one event during this election campaign has been the rise of reform at the expense mainly of the conservatives. i mean, the conservatives began probably about 12 points clear of reform, and they're variously, you know, within a couple of points or in this latest poll, they are now behind reform. of course , one of the reform. of course, one of the paradoxes of this is the reason the liberal democrats appear to be doing so well is precisely because reform is doing so well. >> i know, and they would absolutely loathe it. they'd they'd hate to have to admit that, you know, absolutely terrifying for them. but look, what's interesting i mean, i don't think that all the reform votes come from the disgruntled tories by any means. you know, look at ashfield, look at some of the seats in the north east.

look at hartlepool. you'll find there's a lot of labour voters are attracted to that. not enoughi are attracted to that. not enough i think, to make a huge difference. but the key thing here 18 seats from nowhere for reform. i mean that is earthquake territory that is shattering. if that really is happening, how many conservatives in that sort of bleeding, battered and bruised rump that are going to sort of stagger into the opposition benches? how many of them are going to actually be attracted to what is now the future, maybe reform? however, how much of reform? however, how much of reform is a one man band? i mean, how are they going to survive under the scrutiny? and thatis survive under the scrutiny? and that is going to be very, very interesting. these are rather exciting times not to be in parliament, aren't they? >> well, they are, and william, what do you make of this extraordinary figure today? i mean, it is the first time that any poll has suggested that reform might get 18 seats. i remember one poll before suggesting they might get seven and 18 in the house of commons is quite a significant number, particularly if the other party of the right that is, say, the conservatives, excuse me, is down at 60. what do you what do you make of this and why do you think if reform is rising, why

do you think it is, i think it's rising, sort of amongst the sort of particular section of the electorate which are perhaps people who are traditional labour voters who voted for ukip in 2015, who may have voted for brexit or probably did for vote brexit or probably did for vote brexit in 2016, and then a voted conservative in 2017, 2019, and a fundamentally disillusioned with the political process because the failures of the conservatives to deliver on the promises they made, five years ago, i think i don't necessarily think that reform will pick up 18 seats. i think they could potentially sort of surprise, but i think the you mean fewer than 18. yeah, i think it's more likely they pick up fewer than 18, i think. i don't necessarily believe these sort of particular polls, but, the crucial context in which this has to be seen is the post—election reconstruction of the right, which is that however many mps, they end up with the conservative party is going to have a leadership election. and the big question hanging over that is, what are you going to do about nigel farage and nigel farage? ultimately, he is always going to be part of the conservative party and part of the establishment. and the more mps

he has, the more easy it is for him to make the argument to the conservative party that they should allow him to engage in a hostile takeover. and as i say, this is all part of strengthening his hand and it's also part of the conversation that, reform will have with the conservatives afterwards. i mean, also, if they've taken more votes than the conservatives, you know, the conservatives, you know, the conservative party has a profound challenge then to win over that 1,920% of the electorate. and god knows what the answer to that question is going to be. >> as as stephen pound said a moment ago, these are very interesting, exciting times politically. i can't say that william looks all that excited. thank you very much. >> this is a chinese curse, isn't it? this is a chinese curse. >> thank you very much, stephen pound and william, coming up as the gamble gate saga continues with more names being revealed daily, what did some politicians think they were doing betting on the election date? what made them think it was a good idea? find out after the

break. now. welcome back to the state of the nation . i'm michael of the nation. i'm michael portillo. in an election in which not much has happened, the conservatives have found it difficult to escape from gamble gate. the story of highly placed conservatives placing bets on the date of the general election. shortly before it was announced, has dribbled out with virtually a new name each day since the first revelation. it must be torture for rishi sunak, who can find no escape from the daily developments in a story that just won't die a cabinet minister, alister jack, has admitted placing bets. but if the dates he gives for those wages are right, there's been no wrongdoing. but does it look wise? appearances matter . wise? appearances matter. meanwhile, labour looks confused about gender, whilst sir keir starmer has moved a long way from his inability to define a woman, as labour's intentions are far from clear. whilst the party says that it accepts the cass review, which condemned the ideology driven treatments handed out to minors such as puberty blockers, labour still wishes to ban conversion therapy. potentially any medical

practitioner who questions a child on why it wishes to change gender could be in breach of the law, even though the cass review urges that the whole patient be treated with all aspects of the child's mental health taken into account, and then labour wants to make it easier to change genden to make it easier to change gender. but that leaves confusion. will there be any boundanes confusion. will there be any boundaries for, say, a trans woman with a certificate? is a trans woman duly certified but physically and sexually unmodified to be allowed into women's lavatories, changing spaces , hostels, prisons and spaces, hostels, prisons and sports. if sir keir starmer becomes prime minister next week, he will soon have to make some decisions. one thing that has occurred during this campaign is that reform has gained ground on the tories in the opinion polls. will that trend continue, halt or be put into reverse? the fate of many conservative candidates hinges on that answer. all of that is still to come . but to discuss still to come. but to discuss the latest developments on so—called gamble gate , i'm so—called gamble gate, i'm joined now by my panel historian and broadcaster tessa dunlop and the journalist and broadcaster

benedict spence. welcome to you both , benedict. how serious has both, benedict. how serious has gamble gate been for the conservatives? the fact that they seem to be losing ground in they seem to be losing ground in the polls is that directly linked, in your view, to gamble gate? >> i think it's not helping . >> i think it's not helping. certainly. i don't think it would be that serious if they weren't already in a bit of a tailspin. ultimately, i think the way that they've handled the entirety of their campaign has really focused the attention of members of the public on how badly they're performing. i think d—day wasn't, you know, the d—day memorial was not particularly edifying moment. this is in some ways been a blessing for rishi sunak in that it now focuses the attention on other members of his party, rather than simply him. but it is now the case that the public are focusing on the fact that are focusing on the fact that are not only the conservatives, not necessarily offering any policies that are not particularly like their campaign, is not doing very well, and some of them are not behaving particularly well. and it's one of those things where if this had perhaps happened in isolation, it might not be quite

so fatal. but in many ways, because it is already a part of a fatal campaign, it's just twisting the knife in that little bit more. people who were sort of sat there thinking, well, no, i don't really have any other options other than cancel. i'm not convinced by reform or i'm not going to vote. labour might have still stuck it out with the conservatives, but now you can see actually the polls are edging down even more and people are just thinking, do you know what? i've had enough of the pack of these people because it's not just the prime minister, it's not just a few isolated people. as more and more names come out, it just gives the impression that people, when they knew when the election was going to happen rather than think right back to our constituencies, back to sort of batten down the hatches and put in a hard shift, they decided i need a dopamine hit. and i don't think people really respect that. >> tessa benedict refers there to a tailspin, referring to the conservatives. do you see a unkage conservatives. do you see a linkage between the apparently deteriorating performance and gamble gate? how seriously do you rate gamble gate? >> i think it's deeply problematic because there is a breakdown in trust, and the more names that come out and rishi's failure to act immediately really and distanced himself

from it, he was clearly angry and upset. >> it was one of the leadership debates, and i actually felt sorry for him. there was i sitting, feeling sorry for the prime minister, which is never a good thing. is it really to be pity, taking pity on an individual that is asking you to re—elect him as leader, but actually he should have got rid of them and made that decisive and clear from day one. i think even if there's any smear around their names, any any question , their names, any any question, even if in our justice system even if in ourjustice system you're innocent until proven guilty. >> and by the way, this rather troubles me that we are beginning to have a new rule for those in public life. so normally, as you say, you're guilty and you know you're innocent until proven guilty. but in public life, apparently the tiniest suspicion over your name and your and people advocate that you should be suspended. and if you're not suspended, that's a sign of weakness by your leader. >> no, i think it's special circumstances because we're on the clock ticking down to the 4th of july. >> and actually, it looked like that we may not have a decision for the gambling commission. and therefore it was up to rishi to take leadership and say, look, i

cannot expect the public to make a decision about an individual with a cloud hanging over his name or her name, and therefore they can come back and, you know, we'll get them into a by—election, etc, in the future. but at the moment, while there's a question mark, i think it's only right that they suspend their campaign. that's what i would have done. but i think more broadly, this is about individuals with questionable morality inveigling their way into the inner circle of government. so the lack of judgement, the lack of instinct about individuals with integrity, i think i know you wouldn't do that. michael portillo , and i think you would portillo, and i think you would hope those around you surrounding you in number 10, privy to the most important decision you're about to announce in the pouring rain, weren't going to be the sort of people who'd slop to down ladbrokes. and that's the problem. those individuals are rotters, and they were in number 10. >> i wonder whether one of the reasons that wes streeting in the labour party say they don't trust the polls is that actually the prospect of having nearly

500 mp5 the prospect of having nearly 500 mps is pretty horrifying for laboun 500 mps is pretty horrifying for labour. and i'll tell you why. because they don't know who these people are. and if you're if you're talking about rotters coming into politics, that's your phrase, tessa. but let's run with it for a moment. if you're talking about rotters coming into politics, i mean, a party does its best to vet the 350 people that it hopes might get elected. but when you're talking about 100 or 150 more than that, how on earth do you know who's being swept in? >> oh, it's you're completely right. this is something that is going to bite the labour party at some point. i'm not saying that it'll be a particularly large number. it might only be a very small number, but inevitably people will slip through the net who will not behave appropriately once they're in parliament, or it will be discovered that they have some skeletons in the closet, has to be said. i really, one of the most dispiriting things i found about this entire process is watching in real time the selection process, both for the labour party but also mainly for the conservatives, the slapdash nature in which it's been done. you wouldn't expect a bank or a football team to recruit like we do politicians, the people who run the country. but it's done

on the hoof and it's done based on the hoof and it's done based on party loyalty and how you're doing it, a sort of a local level. it's not even particularly done to do with competence in that role. and i think people have seen that and thought, i'm not happy with how this has gone tessa jowell someone asked me about 1997 a moment ago, in 1997, the song was things can only get better. >> there was a certain amount of optimism about the future. do you have much optimism about the future? i mean, keir starmer may win with a landslide majority, but where is the optimism? do we, for instance, on this point that benedick's raising? do we think that politics is going to be cleaner? do we have any hope of that? >> i think you're right. we have two technocrats slugging it out. i wouldn't be surprised tonight, michael, if this is your highest viewing figures ever because they're not pulling power. are they? rishi and keir, let's face it, they're a great big turnoff okay. and keir starmer i think we're also realistic about the landscape, whether you're ideologically opposed or for brexit. it clobbered our economy. all the stats are demonstrating that line in the

sand. neither men want to shift there. we know that covid tipped us into debt , unprecedented us into debt, unprecedented levels and higher taxation. and i don't see either party taking us out of that. so while we think, okay, we don't want sleaze, we want a fresh face, we want to give keir starmer a go. there's no spring in the step. there's no spring in the step. there's no spring in the step. there's no big l, as they called it back in 1997. i was a kid back then and i've got to say i haven't registered my vote. i was so young and chaotic i wasn't even organised enough to vote. you out, michael, but i think others did it for me. >> other views on brexit are available. benedict, not much optimism in the short term. >> no. realistically, there's no that's certainly not for this election. and actually, i think the next five years there's going to be a lot of, internal wrangling within the conservative party as to, you know, as much as anything else , know, as much as anything else, it's going to be a real shortness in terms of who might actually want to be leader. >> i don't think we've got our heads around this. i mean, if the conservatives are down to 60, we're not going to be terribly concerned about the conservative party anymore. we're we're still in that frame

of mind because they're the government. >> i, i disagree, i don't think there's a lot of talk about how this is going to be a wipe out event for the conservatives. i don't think that an institution thatis don't think that an institution that is that heavily invested in the political fabric of this country will just disappear. and ultimately, i don't think the replacement reform has enough behind it to stay the course. so my bet ten years time, i would say the tories will still be the major party of the right, not reform. >> well, i'll be i'll be sitting here in ten years time and we're talking about it then. thank you very much to my panel. we're going to see you again later. coming up, transgender debate has the headlines again this week. how big

welcome back to state of the nation. i'm michael portillo. a few days ago, shadow education secretary bridget phillipson said labour is looking to review the government's ban on teaching gender ideology in schools if it

wins the election. this comes after kemi badenoch, the equalities minister, said she wanted to ban trans women from women's toilets and sports teams in order to protect females. it's a view which has brought a war of words between her and the actor david tennant, who said miss badenoch should shut up. >> they're acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it, as long as they're not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special special mention because it's common sense, isn't it? we shouldn't live in a world where thatis shouldn't live in a world where that is worth remarking on. however until we wake up and kemi badenoch does not exist anymore . i don't wish ill of anymore. i don't wish ill of her. i just wish her to shut up. >> well, i'm rejoined now by my panel >> well, i'm rejoined now by my panel. the historian and broadcaster tessa dunlop and the journalist and broadcaster ben& jerry's spence . welcome back. jerry's spence. welcome back.

and it's quite interesting, actually . david tennant put his actually. david tennant put his finger on the point there, but didn't seem to recognise it. he said he was in favour of people having these rights as long as they don't hurt anyone else. now they don't hurt anyone else. now the argument is that some rights that might be given to trans people, for example, to elect to go into women's spaces , toilets, go into women's spaces, toilets, to, to go into women's sport , to to, to go into women's sport, to go into women's prisons. these do hurt someone else. they do affect the rights of other people, which is why there is a debate. and it's quite interesting to me that, you know, he had the words there, but he didn't quite understand the application of the words. discuss >> well, i he was incredibly clumsy of course, towards the end of what he said, because i think when he said he wished her out of existence, the equalities minister kemi badenoch the extraordinary applause that one. he was, by the way, picking up an award for being a celebrity ally of the lgbt movement . he ally of the lgbt movement. he quickly then sort of

backtracked, said i don't wish her any harm, which of course immediately get caught out. so it was extraordinarily clumsy. but to return to your point about this overlap of rights, who has whose rights should take precedence? the reason this came to the fore blew up in the way that it did in great britain was because of the case of isla bryson, who was the she was the convicted rapist who began as a he called adam, who was in a female prison in scotland. and the reason we don't have nicola sturgeon right now heading the snp. i believe it isn't because of all the financial embezzlement, accusations, etc. it's because of this case. and the tories leapt upon it. surely, michael, and you're a very reasonable man. this is a grey area, which is why it's both dangerous when we have so—called wokery from david tennant, who's better sticking to narrating children's stories like how to train your dragon , like how to train your dragon, orindeed like how to train your dragon, or indeed from kemi badenoch, who says unsubstantiated things like in in schools there's got to be safe single sex, single—sex spaces where the gender certificates might not

apply in special circumstances. well, what circumstances? she fails to quantify what circumstances? for instance, a transgender person has to exhibit in order to not be allowed to go into a single sex loo in any way? who can judge that or administer that? how do i stop somebody going into a woman's loo ? these things that woman's loo? these things that are being discussed and get so much heat, but actually it's not possible to legislate. >> you betray your position there because someone else might say, how do i allow someone into a woman's space? how do i allow someone into a woman's lavatory? how do i allow someone into women's sport? how do i allow them into a women's prison? because they have declared themselves to be a woman? is thatis themselves to be a woman? is that is that sufficient? does this certificate which labour wants to make easier? is that sufficient? does that protect the rights of women? >> well, i think what's important is i'm glad you're very concerned about the rights of women. and i noticed that conservatives, in an unprecedented way, have got very, very concerned about the rights of women in the wake of

this transgender debate in a way that i've never noticed. the sort of golf club members previously championing women's safety and women's rights. >> quite a lot of conservatives are women. >> that makes me suspicious . >> that makes me suspicious. yes, some are, but there's also a lot of men who wade into this. but you're right, which is why it's a grey area. but i think we have to hold on to the fact that a tiny number of people are transgender, and most of them are pretty vulnerable. we've got bunded are pretty vulnerable. we've got blinded by the case of isla bryson and we think, oh goodness, there's a rapist in a bush who's waving a certificate, who's going to come into our room. >> i would just comment, i'm going to move to benedict, but i just comment, tessa, that you continue to take it from the point of view of the transgender person. you're not saying anything about what the rights of women are. benedict >> well, i think that that's the major point is that the vast majority of people who sort of are women in this situation and do not come therefore, from from a trans background, might be slightly quizzical of the idea of a biological male coming in and demanding anything. i think that a lot of them would say, well, if you were genuinely a woman, you might be a little bit

more sympathetic to our position rather than just saying, no, it is my right to absolutely sort of, you know, bludgeon my way in. i think it's tricky, of course, because obviously it is a very small, very small percentage of the population that we're actually talking about here. but part of the issue i think, is that when this first started emerging and it wasn't so much in this country, it was in the united states, and particularly actually in canada, as well. there were these conversations about, oh, well, what happens when a sex offender tries to, you know, use the rules to their advantage and we all know that's a bigger thing to say. it'll never happen. it has happened once or twice in this country more than once. it has happened an increasing number of times in canada. in the united states it keeps on cropping up because actually these laws are not actually fit to deal with this eventuality, because they are all sorts of, you know, let's try not to offend anybody. let's not try not to dive down into the details of all of this and what this is about is not fundamentally about trans adults. it's about children of any kind of background. it's about the protection of those children. it's trying to create an environment where you do say, okay, there might be trans people and they might be very

vulnerable, but we are to here safeguard all children. and at what point do you say, actually, no, we're not prepared to tolerate any amount of risk to those.i tolerate any amount of risk to those. i think that's where a lot of the backlash certainly in this country comes from, not necessarily against adults. it's when it comes to the idea, because we're talking here about bridget phillipson. also talking about allowing the teaching of gender ideology in schools. that is something that i think a lot of people feel very viscerally opposed to just onset because they think, hang on, no, there is no one size fits all to this. and just to just impressionable age, just touch upon conversion therapy because as i as i mentioned in my introduction, it seems that there is a conflict. >> if you ban conversion therapy, there are many medical practitioners who think they will not be able to give advice to children investigating why that child wants to change gender or thinks it does, because fundamentally it's about talking to a child and saying, are you sure about this? >> it's about talking through these things. and that comes under the umbrella of what counts as conversion, because you are trying to convert them verbally and the reality is actually that the majority of children who say that they are trans at some point revert back

to what they said they were before the overwhelming majority, but not all. you're a practitioner and you sit there and you say, are you sure the odds are in your favour that that child will actually go, oh no, maybe not. but the law would say you are practising something illegal. and i think, again, a lot of people find that unacceptable. >> last word if brief. tessa >> last word if brief. tessa >> well, i just think there's a very big difference between my mother, who was so keen on being a tomboy. she wanted to be able to pee standing up and so forth. in the 1940s, and i can confirm, has been fully woman all her life to the very small minority of people who do end up converting and changing their sex. and i think they also need looked after, i've got to say, as a woman who regularly goes into women's toilets, i've never felt endangered. and i think the majority of women feel like that. if you are standing next to someone in a in a loo who's transgender, i don't immediately jump transgender, i don't immediately jump out of my skin and think, help and run into the next cubicle. >> well, some people, some people might jump out of the skin and some women are very, very sensitive. i mean, they may not be the same religion as you. they would be very sensitive indeed about being in a in a

pubuc indeed about being in a in a public space with someone who had, let me put it mildly, a different equipment. but thank you very much to my panel. coming up as reform causes an upset with nigel farage's remarks about ukraine and nato, i was speaking to someone who thinks the reform leader might have a point. thank you

welcome back to state of the nation. i'm michael portillo. and nigel farage has thrown the ukraine war into the heart of the british election. he's warned for a decade. he says that western expansion into ukraine could provoke a war with russia. does he have a point? well, to investigate, we need to throw the clocks back a decade to when crimea was seized by russia. with me now is professor richard sakwa, a political scientist and a former professor of russian and european politics at the university of kent. richard wrote a book about the

events of 2014. richard welcome to gb news. and tell me, what do you think are the origins of the conflict between russia and ukraine? >> i think you have to go back even more than ten years, it's basically back to the settlement at the end of the first cold war in the late 1980s, when gorbachev put an end to that cold war. he appealed to the united nations, to the charter system, to the norms of universal law. instead of which what happened was, is that the western powers, the atlantic power system, call it what you like , claimed a victory for its like, claimed a victory for its own. and from that fateful moment, with its expansion of nato, expansion of its of its norms, even which are not necessarily opposed to those of the united nations, but nevertheless, they were emanating from the so—called rules based order which led to the a difference. and neither russia nor any other major power we're talking about today. china would be willing to accept that , would be willing to accept that, gorbachev put an end to the cold

war, appealing to the united nations, instead of which the west substituted itself for the universalism, which is represented by the un. and of course, everything flows from that. >> yeah. i mean, i would be tempted to make a distinction. i was the defence secretary between 95 and 97, and i was deaung between 95 and 97, and i was dealing with the russians who were who were very sensitive. they were obviously humiliated by the collapse of the soviet union. and i saw the expansion of nato to take in those countries that had been colonised by the soviet union in 1945 as being entirely justified because they had the right to be protected. they had a recent experience of being colonised ukraine. i saw in a different category because ukraine had been solidly a part of the soviet union. and correct me if i'm wrong, a part of russia before that, and i couldn't see that it was in any way either realistic or appropriate for nato to offer the article five guarantee to ukraine. the

article five guarantee being that if any state is violated or the other states in nato will go to war. what's your comment? >> there's two things there. as for expansion of nato to the east, european countries are quite understand your position quite understand your position quite clearly. they had been under soviet domination before that, threatened by nazi germany, soviet union. so it was quite clear that given the fact that nato enlargement was the only thing on the table, the only thing on the table, the only option, however, even somebody like zbigniew brzezinski in the mid 1990s, in 97, in his famous book the grand chessboard, he argued , yes, he's chessboard, he argued, yes, he's a passionate advocate of nato enlargement, understandably, but even he said there had to be an overarching security framework with moscow. otherwise you would actually be, in my words, you would be expanding a collective defence system, but you would not be expanding a collective security system. and in fact, you would be diminishing the security. the more you expanded

the defence alliance, the less security you'd end up with. >> and indeed, i wonder if that was ukraine. i wonder whether nigel farage has been, i think, pretty wilfully misunderstood. i don't think he's saying anything that supports putin. i think what he may be saying is that nato and the european union have not always behaved very intelligently , possibly not even intelligently, possibly not even intelligently, possibly not even in their own best interests. what would you say of that? >> well, absolutely. he makes three key points. first of all, he points to the illegal invasion, anglo—american invasion, anglo—american invasion of iraq and destruction of libya. in his daily telegraph article, which i think was very important. the second point he makes, which i think is absolutely spot on, is that we are in the middle of a major general election, yet foreign policy has hardly figured, even though the world is closer to world war three than it has been for, well, for at least 30, 40 years. the bulletin of atomic scientists says that we're 90s from midnight, from the apocalypse . and yet there's been

apocalypse. and yet there's been almost no talk of the fundamental issues facing us today. and the third thing specifically, you're absolutely right , nigel specifically, you're absolutely right, nigel farage. he argues he ten years ago he warned about ukraine being drawn in and the fact that, you know , i don't fact that, you know, i don't think the way he's formulated it is correct. but i think that he's injected a good and healthy note for to us debate this. we may not agree with him, but it's important to discuss the issue, an issue which is almost not figured in this election. >> thank you very much indeed, richard sakwa. that's most interesting perspective, up next, it will be patrick christys. so please stay tuned for him . i'll be back with the for him. i'll be back with the same program at 8:00 tomorrow. fascinating evening. politics being made all around us, history being made . i'm michael history being made. i'm michael portillo. this has been state of the nation. good night. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on gb

news >> hello and welcome to the latest update from the met office for gb news following another hot day. for many it's warm overnight but cooler air is on the way and windier weather. this unseasonably deep low pressure arriving for thursday and friday. that's going to bnng and friday. that's going to bring some unseasonable strong winds to western scotland and northern ireland. now it's not been hot everywhere during wednesday, but for much of central and southeastern england, it has been another very warm or hot one. and it's going to stay warm in these areas overnight. despite the clear spells, 17 celsius further west and north, we've got showery rain moving in cloud and an increased breeze . so by dawn an increased breeze. so by dawn much more unsettled across parts of western scotland, northern ireland, the winds picking up strength through the morning, bands of rain moving into the west coast. we've also got some heavy showers pushing through the northern isles. perhaps the odd rumble of thunder, brighter

skies for much of the rest of scotland, feeling cooler here and for much of northern and western england, wales cloudier conditions to begin things although the rain on the weather front that is making the change tending to peter out. and really it's just a band of cloud and a few spots of rain as it pushes into the midlands. and then by the afternoon, east anglia in the afternoon, east anglia in the south—east, as that rain arrives and as the cloud thickens, the wind changes direction . temperatures aren't direction. temperatures aren't going to reach the highs that we saw in the last couple of days. we're looking at closer to 25, 26 celsius in the east and south—east, but sunshine returns by the end of the day across much of england and wales. blustery showers in the west and the north. and as i say, unseasonably windy through thursday , especially in the far thursday, especially in the far north and northwest and into friday, we've still got some heavy showers moving through and some strong winds that could impact any outdoor events that are taking place, and so watch out for that into the weekend. mixed conditions, some cloud , a

mixed conditions, some cloud, a bit of rain here and there, but also some sunshine. temperatures back to average. >> looks like things are heating up . boxt boilers sponsors of up. boxt boilers sponsors of weather on gb

>> you with gb news. in a moment. headliners. but first, let's take you through the latest news headlines. and tonight, the two main party leaders have clashed over illegal immigration in a television debate. with just a week to go before voters go. sir keir starmer and rishi sunak arrived at nottingham trent university earlier on to take part in the question and answer session, where they took questions from and invited studio audience, with one asking how each leader was planning to control illegal immigration. here's what they said . here's what they said. >> yes, we do need to process, but what will you do with them? we've got to process the claim

you're sitting there with tens of thousands of people, but it's just illegal. >> migrants come to our country. what do you do with them ? what do you do with them? process their claims. simple question. well, can you i can tell people what i will do with them. i will put them on planes to rwanda because they shouldn't be able to days. to rwanda because they shouldn't be able to days . what will you be able to days. what will you do with illegal migrants who come to our country? what will you do with them? it's a simple question. >> his plan is to. >> his plan is to. >> will you do with them? >> will you do with them? >> they need to be processed at the moment, processed ? the moment, processed? >> well, a new poll has predicted that the conservatives are set to lose most of their seats in the election, and will likely have fewer seats than the liberal democrats, which means, to according the new research, the lib dems are most likely to become the official opposition party. the new poll looks like this. it's from electoral calculus, and it's forecast that labour will win 450 seats. the liberal democrats 71 and the conservatives 60. it's likely the reform party will win around 18 seats, according to this research, including those of

nigel farage, richard tice and lee anderson. the forecast labour victory would be more significant than tony blair's landslide election result of 97, and it would be the largest win by any political party over the last 100 years. meanwhile labour has confirmed tonight that a party member has been arrested in islington in london. it follows a police investigation into the sixteen scam concerning some westminster mps. the police investigation relates to at least 12 men who had received unsolicited text messages in the so—called honeytrap scandal. labour says it has administratively suspended the member from the party and cannot comment further due to the ongoing police investigation . ongoing police investigation. now the shadow health secretary, wes streeting, has maintained his position that a 35% pay rise for junior doctors is a non—starter. but he says he will

reopen talks with the bma if