the people decide with me. >> the people decide with me. camilla tominey coming up on tonight's show, we're going to be discussing the postal vote chaos. why haven't people been receiving their ballot papers? we're also going to be talking about labour's plan for opticians to help bring down nhs waiting lists. and of course, with 48 hours to go before the polls close, we're going to have the latest on the polling with professor sir john curtice . professor sir john curtice. i'll also be joined by former scotland yard detective peter bleksley as pop star ed sheeran lays into lawless london. do get in touch tonight with your thoughts on the topics we're going to discuss by visiting gbnews.com/yoursay but first, here's the news with polly middlehurst .

middlehurst. >> camilla, thank you and good evening to you. well, the top story tonight is that the royal mail has hit back at claims there's been a failure to get postal votes sent out to some people, insisting there is no backlog ahead of thursday's general election . it comes after general election. it comes after the post office minister himself, kevin hollinrake, was said to be urgently investigating claims of delays investigating claims of delays in some constituencies. the labour leader, sir keir starmer, is refusing to rule out recounts if some postal votes can't be counted. >> well, look, we cross each bndge >> well, look, we cross each bridge as we get to it. i am concerned about the delays and i think what needs to happen now is everybody needs to pull together to make sure the ballot papers get where they're needed so that people can exercise their democratic right to vote. so that's where my focus is at the moment. >> sir keir starmer, meanwhile, the chairman of reform uk, richard tice, has accused the conservative party of placing trojan horse candidates in his party to spread lies. it comes

after a second reform candidate defected to the tories, accusing some of her former colleagues of having racist, misogynistic and bigoted views. however, georgie david said she did not believe reforms senior leadership was racist . reforms say they racist. reforms say they disagree with miss david's sweeping statement, saying she's never met the vast majority of their 600 plus candidates . the their 600 plus candidates. the number of historical sex offences former dup leader sir jeffrey donaldson is facing has risen from 11 to 18. northern ireland's longest serving mp is expected at a court hearing tomorrow to establish if his case will be sent for trial. the 61 year old's previously said he'll contest all counts against him , as has his wife, who's him, as has his wife, who's facing a separate allegation now away from politics today. a student nurse described as an incredibly dangerous man who intended to kill as many people as possible, has been found guilty of preparing terrorist

acts. mohammed farooq was arrested in leeds with a pressure cooker bomb at the hospital where he worked in january last year, sheffield crown court heard today how an incredibly brave patient prevented utter devastation when he managed to talk him down. the 28 year old self—radicalized islamist terrorist had immersed himself in extremist islamist ideology and went to the hospital to kill nurses and seek his own martyrdom . and just his own martyrdom. and just lastly, from the united states, democrat lloyd doggett has become the first politician in joe biden's to party call now for him to step down as presidential nominee. there have been questions about the president's future in november's election, following his poor performance in last week's tv debate against former president donald trump. it comes as joe biden's planning a meeting with democratic governors tomorrow to reassure them that he is of

sound mind and body. reassure them that he is of sound mind and body . those are sound mind and body. those are the latest gb news headlines. i'm polly middlehurst. i'm back in an hour for the very latest gb news direct to your smartphone, sign up to news alerts by scanning the qr code, or go to gbnews.com forward slash alerts . slash alerts. >> thanks, polly. welcome back. right, let's get stuck into this postal vote story. so the royal mail has been criticised for failing to deliver to some postal voters on time. the telegraph has discovered that voters in more than 90 constituencies, including some cabinet ministers, have raised concerns about their ballot papers failing to arrive. it's also an issue for overseas voters , and it's a problem in voters, and it's a problem in scotland, where postal votes have failed to arrive before the school summer holidays, which start earlier than in england and wales. have you been affected by this? that's the

question i'm asking you this evening. if you have, do get in touch. leave a comment for me at gb news.com/your say with your views on that this evening. so if you've had a problem getting your postal vote it's arrive late. you're worried about getting it back to your constituency office. then please do get in touch . we're going to do get in touch. we're going to be joined now by vijay rangarajan, who's the chief executive at the electoral commission. mr rangarajan, thank you very much indeed for joining me this evening. how much of a problem is this and how concerned is the electoral commission? >> so what we know is that in some cases there have been some delays to postal votes. absolutely right. about 6.7 million people have now used the postal voting system. so the votes have been sent to them. they've signed them , they've they've signed them, they've voted. they've gone back through the royal mail system to election administrators, and they're going to be counted after 10 pm. on thursday night. so 6.7 million is a lot of people. and it's more than actually voted by post in the equivalent time at the 2019

general election. so mostly the system is working really well. and i say thank you to election administrators who have had to do a big job running this poll immediately after the may poll. clearly, there have been some problems with some delays to some postal votes , overall, some postal votes, overall, we'll be looking at the entire system and trying to make sure that any after this election, we can improve the system. what we're seeing is a very large number of postal votes. >> yes, indeed. so you're saying that actually that is a large number, isn't it? 6.7 million, having already put their cross by the relevant box and sent them off, do we have any idea at all of how many numbers are affected by not having received their ballot papers, when they should have already? >> we think very few now haven't received their ballot papers, royal mail , as you say, have royal mail, as you say, have checked their system. i've tried to get all of the ballot papers through. there have been a few issues with some printers, a few issues with some printers, a few issues on delivery times for some, but everyone should have their ballot papers by now. it's possible some don't. so here's

what people should do. if they don't. if they haven't received a ballot paper in their postal vote, they should contact their local council and get a replacement pack. that will mean going and picking it up, i'm afraid. but they will show some id for the election security and they'll then be able to vote. but if you have got a ballot paper received today or even tomorrow, you can still use it tomorrow, you can still use it to vote. you can vote early, as you can get it into a post box. and royal mail will then sweep up all the votes and make sure that by 10:00 on thursday night, there with the relevant people who will start the counting process. so do still use it if you've got it, okay, so use it if you've got it. >> even if you're posting it tomorrow, even if you're posting it tomorrow, you can. >> if you're not sure you trust that still take it in. you can take it in yourself, physically, in polling station on thursday, or you can ask someone else to take it in to the polling station on thursday. so there's many ways to make sure your vote is counted. >> when you say very small numbers you think have been affected, can you put any kind of figure on that? are you

talking about low thousands, tens of thousands? what does that mean? only a small amount of people, we think many less than tens of thousands. >> we can't put a total figure on it at the moment. it's moving all the time. we'll come back to this, as we do after every election and analyse how many votes didn't make it through the system or for whatever reason, didn't count. the number is usually really small. i think voters should have a high degree of trust in the system, and that their vote will in fact count. as i say, once we've got all the votes, by the close of polling at 10 pm. on on thursday, then the counting will start overnight and we should see declarations early on friday. just one thing. can i just remind all your viewers, please? if you're going to the polling station, bring your voter id. >> yes. okay. will do . i >> yes. okay. will do. i remember boris johnson got unstuck on that in the local elections recently. so thank you very much indeed. mr rangarajan, thank you very much for joining us. let's speak to, bruce darrington, who's in the studio with me. you're the chair of the british overseas voters forum . british overseas voters forum. you've just heard that interview

there with the electoral commission boss. he's playing it down somewhat. he says there are only a small number of people have been affected. but, bruce, i think you're telling a different story when it comes to expats who are still entitled to vote in british elections. they've been having problems with their postal votes. >> well , yes, with their postal votes. >> well, yes, indeed. >> well, yes, indeed. >> i mean, vijay didn't talk about the 200,000 or 300,000 votes that are going, the postal votes that are going, the postal votes that are going, the postal votes that are going overseas, and many of those have not arrived , when you say many, arrived, when you say many, bruce, can you quantify that? so how many should be voting from overseas in any given national ballot? >> well, as a result of the change in the electoral law allowing more british people overseas to vote, we estimate it will be around 450,000. okay significant amount, significant amount of voters. >> how many do you think haven't received their ballot papers yet? >> well, let's say two thirds of those are choosing to have a postal vote. yes. and another third are choosing to have a rather inadequate proxy system to somebody who will sort of turn up or vote for them on their behalf. so. so let's say

there's 200 to 300,000 people who are, you know, supposed to get their their votes overseas. now, we have many members all over the world, even in very developed countries like japan today, many postal votes arrive today, many postal votes arrive today to our members in japan. and they were. >> how on earth are they? well of course, that's absolutely impossible. >> it doesn't. even if you couriered them back using dhl or whatever, it's not going to work. so we've, we've we've said all along pretty much every developed country or even less developed country or even less developed country or even less developed country in the world, they use their embassies and their consulates to organise the overseas vote. it's very secure. you register with your embassy or consulate, they distribute the ballot papers. they you send it back, they make sure through their, you know, their fast post system that all the ballot papers reach the ballot box. absolutely secure. absolutely 100. so that's, you know, very much what we said, when this legislation was announced that, you know, we really should have a secure and, you know, 100% effective. so i think at least

we have that . well, i think that we have that. well, i think that the government saw it as a, you know, as, as cost potentially costing money or, or not really costing money or, or not really costing money, but a distraction. and what the foreign and commonwealth office do. so they just felt, no, let's let's stick with the postal voting system. but you know, we will see very strong evidence. probably the only half the postal votes will have arrived and come back. so just arriving is one thing. but of course, you know, going back is another. and you know, what i think people don't realise is that after covid, the international postal system has sort of broken down and for many countries you don't receive mail from from the uk for a month or, you know, a month and a half or sometimes neven month and a half or sometimes never. so, so but i'm surprised with japan because japan has a really efficient postal system and yet people are only receiving their ballot papers today and many have not received. >> but has this historically always been a problem, or is this a 2024 problem? and it's worse than it has been in

previous elections. >> well, there are more people voting from overseas now. and so it's a more significant issue. and yes, i think, as, as we all know, you know, the postal system isn't so well used anywhere in the world because of internet and so on. so it's a growing problem. and you know, probably in five years time, it'll be even worse because you know, we can't you know, the uk can't rely it can do its part. but once the mail leaves our shores, it's in the hands of intermediaries and other postal systems, and it just takes so long. >> i tell you what's troubling me about this, bruce. i mean, in regardless of whether it affects domestic postal voters or those overseas, is that obviously our first past the post system means that one vote matters. one vote is the difference between one side winning or another or another or another. and if we have closely contested marginal seats, which looks extremely likely, we're already talking, aren't we, about certain seats going neck, neck and neck? if there's, say, a dozen votes in it and there's evidence in that

constituency that a load of postal votes haven't arrived, be it from japan or the village next door. yes, that's hugely problematic. and then will be something that the electoral commission will have to investigate. we could have results that aren't honest results that aren't honest results because the postal votes haven't been counted . haven't been counted. >> absolutely. it's absolutely bound to happen and you know it. just take the overseas voters where it obviously the problem is much greater. you know, some constituencies have between 1 and 3000 overseas registered voters. so yes , that's the voters. so yes, that's the that's going to be the majority in many seats. all right. >> i think we're going to continue to talk about this probably towards the end of the week. bruce when the results of this become apparent, thank you very much indeed forjoining me in the studio. thank you to coming up next, we're going to be discussing whether opticians can help to bring down nhs waiting lists. go go anywhere. i'll be in

welcome back to vote 2024 with

me. camilla tominey. this evening, i've asked you. have you been affected by the postal voting scandal? the fiasco. and one viewer says 2 in 3 postal votes haven't arrived in enfield already. asked the council for a replacement. sally says there are also issues about some people not receiving polling cards. i know you don't need them to vote, but they do tell you to where vote. they were not even printed for some in east devon, and ashwin said we received our postal votes days ago, but to be fair, you probably should have received them weeks ago, as i did in leafy hertfordshire. mark says it doesn't matter if only a small amount of people are affected. this is an electoral commission failure and will affect local battles for all parties in 2024. how can this happen ? very good point. well, happen? very good point. well, we're going to discuss that in just a moment with my superstar political panel. but first let's get into this story about opticians perhaps helping to bnng opticians perhaps helping to bring down nhs waiting lists. so labour wants to send patients to

specsavers or similar in a bid to cut nhs waiting lists. it wants private providers to carry out routine checks and scans to free up nhs specialists for more complex procedures. there are currently 613,000 patients on nhs waiting lists for eye care, 15,000 of whom have been waiting for more than a year. well, to discuss this, i'm joined in the studio by doctor peter carter, who's an independent health consultant and former chief executive of the royal college of nursing. doctor carter, lovely to see you . especially to lovely to see you. especially to see you. you're in glasses. i said to you earlier, i am in real life as blind as a bat and wear contact lenses. so thank goodness for specialists like you because i am so short sighted, literally minus ten in each eye. i go to a specialist optician just to make sure that my eyes are okay every six months because i'm to prone things like retinal detachments and all the rest of it. i'm wondering. i'm questioning the wisdom of this because our opticians at spectator savers, with the greatest respect to

them, qualified enough to do some of the checks that people need on their eyes when it comes to conditions that could affect you, like macular degeneration orindeed you, like macular degeneration or indeed eye cancers and things like that. >> look, it's very important that opticians don't act out of their area of competence, but i'm all in favour of this because we are in a hell of a mess. yeah over 600,000 people, as you've already said on the waiting list, 15,000 people waiting list, 15,000 people waiting over a year and at least 500 people a year are losing their sight because of the long waiting list. now, if you can get early access to a high street opticians, they can help to detect things far earlier than if you had to wait a year or even many, many months so you could get stuck in some ideological straitjacket saying, no, no, everything's got to be done by the public sector. yeah. but we are in this difficult situation, so i don't have a problem if wes streeting if it becomes the secretary of state

for health, can negotiate some good deals with boots, specsavers or whatever in order to get people early access to assessment. and it's at the assessment. and it's at the assessment stage that most high street opticians can pick up that you've got a problem and then try and fast track them for in treatment in the long term by investing there , i actually investing there, i actually think you'll save money because you will prevent longer term conditions developing, which currently is the case, i'm saddened to say. >> and also opticians. now to be fair, do have much more sophisticated equipment . so sophisticated equipment. so ordinarily you'd be expecting, if you live in london to go to moorfields to get specialist eye care. i noticed in my own optician, you know, they've got all sorts of gadgets and gizmos. they can look into the back of your eye. is that also why this is a good idea? because opticians are providing a much more comprehensive, comprehensive service than they used to. >> well, look, we're very quick to knock the uk on all sorts of things, but with a whole range of things. the training is up

there with the very best worldwide and the people that assess you in most high street opticians are highly trained , opticians are highly trained, sophisticated people who can actually assess and diagnose and then get you signposted into the right treatment . so i think this right treatment. so i think this is a very good move. i wish it wasn't the case. yes, but we are where we are. and as i say, if 15,000 people are waiting for over a year, then that doesn't bode well for their long term future. >> and when you say that they could go blind in that time, what kind of conditions just can't be waited on? they have to be dealt with immediately. >> well, there's a whole range of conditions. you mentioned macular degenerative disease. there's glaucoma. and also people can pick up by using the diagnostic interventions. they can pick up that things are going wrong and get you into treatment and finally doctor, after a certain age, what would it be? >> i don't know, 60. how regularly should you be seeing an optician ? because a lot of an optician? because a lot of these conditions do hit people

in older age. >> yeah. look, i mean, a lot of people go for an annual check—up and that's a very sensible thing to do. and i think that that's a good investment in time and also a very good investment in money. okay. >> doctor peter carter, thank you very much indeed for joining me this evening. all right. let's get stuck into the election campaign now , 48 hours election campaign now, 48 hours or so to go until the polls close . well, probably about 51 close. well, probably about 51 hours to be completely accurate, about it. goodness me. i mean, it's been quite the campaign so far. let's bring my two guests into the conversation now. conservative cabinet minister or former conservative cabinet minister george eustice and former labour mp stephen pound in a very natty suit. i see you've been doing your election dress shopping, stephen, because you're going to be with us. both of you on election night are we? absolutely, yes you are, i think so. i think we're all going to be together in perfect harmony as the chips fall. yeah. let's talk about the postal votes thing. first of all, because the ceo of the electoral commission there is sort of playing it down and saying only a few thousand

are affected. but if this was happening in your constituency at the time when you were running as mps, you'd be worried about it, wouldn't you? >> oh, you would, i mean, because and there will be dozens and dozens of seats in this election where every vote counts. and more important than that, you know, people, you know, they want to exercise their right to vote. it's actually, people feel very, very angry if they've got a right to vote. and the vote doesn't turn up. so, so no, it is quite serious. and i don't i don't really understand how this came about because we've done postal votes now for many, many years in this country. >> and i know royal mail is blaming the government for calling a snap election and saying that they weren't prepared. >> well, snap elections have happened before. and, you know, to be honest, an election could have happened at any time this yeah have happened at any time this year. there was a lot of spec, you know, you wouldn't just wait and think, oh, well, we didn't think it was coming till october. they should have been ready for any, any moment for it to be called. i mean, at any moment there could have been a vote of no confidence or anything. >> but here's an interesting thing. even if we identify thousands of people who weren't able to vote, there's no

mechanism under the representation of the people act for rerunning the election. we've had situations where polling stations have closed early. there's been power failure, there's been problems have actually been caused. people can't get into the polling station. and in every one of those cases, whatever the result was at the time that happened, stood. so if is that right? >> i mean, i suppose there isn't much choice. >> well, no, i appreciate that. but what you'd think logically, you would say, suppose you actually come up with base evidence that you've got 1000 people didn't get their postal vote, and the party wins by less than 1000 votes. you'd think that in common decency would say, you rerun the election, but you can't. there's absolutely no mechanism under british electoral law for doing that. >> can i make a controversial suggestion that we just don't have postal votes? you know, there isn't just a problem with them not arriving on time. there's also a problem that they feel in some families, you know, votes can be manipulated and that people can influence others within the family to vote a certain way. >> very much so. but don't forget, the system's been tightened up immensely. now, what used to happen? i mean, just to see them as opposed to votes were, taken out of the envelopes in the office. you see the same handwriting, the same

name, in the same signature. nowadays you have to have your national insurance number. and there's a much, much more rigorous single voter registration was brought in to deal with with that sort of abuse. >> so i think postal votes, i think, it can work because you often you'll find that there are elderly people who can't get out to the polling station or are not sure that they'll be able to on the day. and for them, it's a really important way to be able to get a postal vote. >> i mean, up until i think it was as recently as about 92, you can still get a postal vote, but a nurse or a doctor or a dentist or, oddly enough, or an ophthalmologist had to sign a piece of paper saying that for physical reasons they couldn't. or the other one was armed forces. if you were serving overseas in the armed forces, you could then get a postal vote. so we've always had postal. what is different now is these massive numbers. it's like 40% of some constituencies. >> it's amazing to think that 6.7 million people have already voted. so whatever starmer, sunak, farage or anyone else does on the campaign trail for the next 24 hours is going to make no. >> it blows up. it blows up in your face, it's too late. >> and the parties have been

conscious of this really for the last decade, because if you look at the campaign rhythm, it's really very much geared to build up and come to a crescendo around the landing of the postal votes. so yes. and then the final week is just about the final week is just about the final getting out the vote. >> but then i thought the timing of the final tv debate then didn't particularly suit. i mean, postal voting is something more associated with older voters. older voters are more closely associated with being supporters of the tories, or perhaps even reform in this case than labour, perhaps because it's more of a younger vote. stephen and therefore, if there is a problem with these votes, the conservatives are going to be more badly affected potentially than perhaps labour, probably. >> but it does vary. it depends on the constituency. i mean, i think the important thing to note is if people have received their postal vote late and it's too late to return it and send it back, they can still take that postal vote into a polling station and i think what all of the parties returning officer there, it's an old art that's forgotten. but all of the parties locally, will say to people that they will help get them to the polling station, give them a lift if they need to. okay all campaigns, you know, offer that service on

buses. >> we know back in the day when we poor labour people, we didn't have cars, you know, so had to the tories miles barefoot. the tories would swan through their bentleys, right? >> yeah. oh come on now, let's get into the politics of today then. is it wise, george, for rishi sunak to be saying quotes ? rishi sunak to be saying quotes? a hung parliament is in our grasp. is he completely given up on winning this thing? why is he now managing expectations towards a hung parliament? >> i think what you've got to bearin >> i think what you've got to bear in mind, we are in the what? parties will call the get out the vote stage. right. the gotv phase of this campaign and the time for making new arguments is gone. yeah. and it's all about trying to get people who would normally be supportive of you to actually turn out and vote for you and not to drift and be disloyal and go to other parties because they're a bit annoyed by it. and really, what rishi sunak is doing, i think, is recognising the polls are what they are. we've been plagued throughout this election with people saying, oh, it's a foregone conclusion. blair's, you know,

the labour are going to win and blair starmer's going to win. well, he's in the background, isn't he. right. thomas starmer isn't he. right. thomas starmer is going to win under the conservatives have got no hope. that's that's been in the aether. he's sort of recognising that. but trying to get people who might have drifted to reform to come back. and the best argument you've got at the moment is don't give them a blank check. >> so i think it's still a despair. i mean, in all honesty, what he should be saying, starmer is saying it's bordering on hysteria, particularly this row about him suggesting he's going to clock off at 3:06 pm. on friday. no, i think it's marvellous. this is. keir starmer is saying that 6:00 on friday is family time. yeah i mean i respect that. yes i think i mean it's been good luck getting it because i mean good prime minister i'm going to say a bit naive. >> are we all appreciate that everybody wants family time. i mean, you know, we can all agree with that on this panel. i include doctor carter in that because he's a busy doctor. but at the same time, is it the right thing to be saying as you're approaching downing street and going to be handed the keys to number 10, you know, we want to look as if we're

completely expectation management as well. >> well, look, he was a civil servant in a previous life. he's not actually had ministerial experience. and so, you know, if he thinks he can do that, he's in for a bit of a rude awakening. >> he doesn't know what's in that red box. >> yes. no, i'm not sure he knows what's going on. it does worry me that he's not quite sure what's going to hit him and what the job entails, because it it won't be easy for him to just, you know, take fridays off. >> and let's also have a final word about reform. so we've had another defection to the tories. gyorgy david has said that she's frustrated and dismayed by nigel farage's failure to tackle issues with candidates, but chairman richard tice has suggested on x, formerly known as twitter, that reform has fallen victim to tory trojan horses. quick word on that. >> i don't see that. i mean, certainly this andrew parker business is professional actor who ends up effing and blinding on the doorstep. i'm there's a whiff about that one. i have to say. but this with george, i mean, i don't know what did she think she was signing up for in beckton, where she was, you know, standing and she actually thought the place is full of misogynists and so on and says, well, i'm sorry, why would you do it now at the time, you could do it now at the time, you could do the maximum damage. why would

you endorse a conservative? >> it might be a sign, though, just to wrap up, because we're running out of time, george, that there are shy conservatives out there who have flirted with the idea of reform but changed their minds. i mean, this is a candidate, but could that be reflected in the electorates both of these candidates, they're quite young and they probably thought that they were, you know, supporting a party that was closest to them. >> and then they realised that they are surrounded by a lot of other, you know, candidates whose views they find abhorrent. and they, you know, they're basically reacting to that. and so the idea that conservative parties inserted some sort of trojan horse is clearly ridiculous. i'm not efficient. aren't they? i'm not sure we're capable of running that kind of operation. >> i tell you what, that would really be sophisticated. >> it's much more straightforward. these are young candidates who had ideals, and they've gone in there and it's not what they thought. >> all right, chaps, see you on election night. we'll have matchsticks in our eyes drinking red bull by the gallon. right. coming up next, we're going to be different again. well no other energy drinks are available, folks. coming up next, we're going to be discussing why ed sheeran, of people, thinks that london lawless. >> don't

with. >> welcome back to vote 2024 with me. camilla tominey. now, the singer and musician ed sheeran has given an interview where he suggested that london is becoming increasingly lawless. in an interview with american stand up comedian theo von the shape of you singer made the following remarks. >> it's the most dangerous place to be around here. here i'd say every every area of london, literally everywhere. area is sketchy, i love that the nice areas are sketchy, the bad areas areas are sketchy, the bad areas are sketchy, but you just have to not do stupid. like if you wander around with, i don't know , like a louis vuitton duffel bag and a 200 grand watch, you are going to get robbed. like, yeah, like that. but just don't do that . do that. >> just don't do that. well, former met police detective peter bleksley joins me in the studio now. peter, lovely to see you.thank studio now. peter, lovely to see you. thank you. it's not wrong.

is he? i mean, would anyone go around with a 200 grand watch on and a duffel bag? maybe it was ever thus. but it does strike us that the capital is becoming increasingly lawless. >> it sickens me to the very pit of my stomach to say that ed sheeran is right. >> i want anybody who's been successful and can afford a luxury watch and a nice bag to be able to walk around our great city without fear of being robbed. but sadly, the crime statistics show that there are increasing numbers of violent crime in the city. there's a huge amount of fraud , which is huge amount of fraud, which is not necessarily violent, but there are other serious crimes against women and girls and so the very unpalatable beats of increasing crime goes on. >> has it changed in recent years? peter because this whole rolex gang theft thing seems to be a bit more of a more modern phenomena . i mean, i think 20

phenomena. i mean, i think 20 years ago, if you were lucky enough to be able to afford a luxury watch, you could probably wear it around oxford circus and bond street and be feeling relatively safe. that's no longer the case. >> and 20 years ago you might have dined in mayfair for example, and the actual truth of the matter was some of the more better to do areas were policed better to do areas were policed better by the metropolitan police than others, officers would would particularly be put in places where there was great wealth . politicians, the wealthy wealth. politicians, the wealthy lived because they wanted to be kept protected, and the police wanted to do that. now, unfortunately, the truth of the matter is, so much crime is unreported. yes. and this is really kind of the elephant in the room. there are so many people who i speak to on a daily bafis people who i speak to on a daily basis who are victims of crime or who are related or are friends with people who have recently become victims of crime in our great city. and when i say to them in a pleading tone,

did you report this to the police? the answer inevitably , police? the answer inevitably, is what's the point? >> well, that's a terrible indictment. i mean, to what extent do we blame the police themselves? to what extent do we blame government? you know, theresa may cut police numbers . theresa may cut police numbers. famously, i was speaking to a former met copper a couple of weeks ago for a story on the telegraph, and he was reminding me of just how many police stations in central london have been closed down, 600 throughout the nation. >> and the met was no exception. absolutely ludicrous . but absolutely ludicrous. but really, the essence of the collapse of the policing model as it used to be. and i'll accept it's never been perfect. policing is full of people, so it'll never be perfect. but in many regards in relation to keeping the public safer, having a better relation with the public, it was that 20 or 30 years ago, the downfall of policing was when the academics took over. >> and explain that a bit. >> and explain that a bit.

>> peter well , so in 1997, tony >> peter well, so in 1997, tony blair said education, education, education and many senior police officers said, we'll have a piece of this and off they trotted to their red brick universities. some of them were funded entirely, and of course, they began the generation of police officers with letters after their names instead of in front. but what do you mean? >> that kind of academisation, so to speak, of the police force, has resulted in fewer practical skills, because there's a problem at the other end of the scale, isn't there, that quite a few people are becoming police officers now that can't read and write senior police officers. >> these days are loaded with degrees and mbas and such like, and there are departments of policing in many universities. we have professors of policing. academia is everywhere in policing. and if you want to get promoted through the ranks, you have to be an academic. whereas

practical policing people who have gone work their way steadily through the ranks, gaining experience of frontline supervision , management, supervision, management, controlling operations, they will be bypassed because they simply do not have the necessary academic qualifications. academia is everywhere in policing and it's never been in a worse state. >> finally, peter, i mean, is there this kind of atmosphere building up where criminals have a license to thieve because of these sort of strange rules around not necessarily prosecuting or criminalising people for lifting less than £200 worth of goods from shops , £200 worth of goods from shops, sort of seems to be suggesting to criminals that they can get away with it, and they do on a daily basis. >> not only do they get away with shoplifting completely un impinged, but 800 members of retail staff get assaulted every single day of the week. the streets are increasingly lawless

. policing is in chaos. it's a shame on all the houses that more of crime and policing was not made during this general election campaign. >> it's hardly been mentioned at all. >> but the minute it's over fifth 6th of july, when we go back to thousands of victims of serious crime every day of the week, it will be back on the front pages. >> peter bleksley, thank you very much indeed forjoining me this evening. well, let's go over to chalfont st giles in leafy buckinghamshire now, where villagers have been kicking up a stink over a stench that has forced them to withdraw from the best kept village competition. the parish council made the decision to pull out after thames water dumped raw sewage into the river misbourne. joining me to discuss this is chalfont saint giles councillor karen dixon . karen, this is near karen dixon. karen, this is near me in my neck of the woods because i live on the harts bucks border, so i'm very familiar with chalfont saint giles. how badly does it smell? >> it has been really, really difficult from them. i'm not a pansh difficult from them. i'm not a parish councillor from saint

giles. i'm a parish councillor from the village just next door, and i think our neighbours are having a torrid time. it's affecting the centre of their village, their library. it's coming in through windows, so it's very unpleasant going in through windows. >> what do you mean? >> what do you mean? >> the stench is just coming in through windows. so they're having a torrid time . having a torrid time. >> and what have you said to thames water about it? because clearly this situation can't go on. we've had problems haven't we, in recent months and years about sewage. i know about the issues locally. we used to take our children to paddle down near us in some of the rivers around the chilterns. we can't do that anymore because they're not safe. we've had all sorts of different disease outbreaks. we've got talk now that, you know , rowers can't go into the know, rowers can't go into the thames because it's so dirty. what's the water company saying in response to complaints? >> i think the water companies are constantly saying that it's just groundwater. they're saying it's excess groundwater. it's the most rain we've had in so many years. it's the wettest february we've had in 28 years. but i think residents are feeling that it doesn't matter so much about the rainwater. we

can cope with an excess of rainwater . it's the sewage that rainwater. it's the sewage that comes up from the systems. that's what's made things unbearable. it was embarrassing when the boat race, when people were complaining during the boat race, the oxford cambridge boat race, the oxford cambridge boat race about the smell. it's marlow, it's all the areas along here. and i think thames water keeps saying, oh, they're doing their utmost, they're doing their utmost, they're doing their utmost, they're doing their utmost . but residences, their utmost. but residences, businesses are struggling . businesses are struggling. >> and karen, you're a local politician. so you're obviously in contact with constituents all the time. do you think this sewage issue is actually going to be a big factor in how people vote on thursday ? vote on thursday? >> it's a good question, i must point out that i'm not a political candidate. i'm just a volunteer parish councillor. so i'm an independent here. i do think it will have massive implications because people are seeing it on their front doorsteps. they sing it in their backyards, it's affecting their saturdays and sundays. it's affecting how they, how they do recreation. it's affecting how their businesses run. i think it will be a really big issue. i

don't know whoever is still in charge on friday. i don't know how they're going to fix it, but somebody needs to fix it and somebody needs to fix it and somebody needs to hold the water companies to account. >> all right. karen dixon, thank you very much indeed for joining me this evening. well, we're going to be talking about the election, coming up with professor sir john curtice, the polling guru going to take us through the very latest numbers.

welcome to vote 2024 with me. camilla tominey. professor sir john curtice , pollster and john curtice, pollster and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde, joins me now to discuss the latest numbers . professor, lovely to numbers. professor, lovely to see you. you've been saying today that there's more chance of lightning striking twice than a tory victory for rishi sunak. so definitely . right. no no no so definitely. right. no no no no no qualify that. then what did you actually say. go on. >> right. it's really a repetition of what i've, what i've said before about there

being a 99% chance of keir starmer being the next prime minister. so what i was saying is lightning has to would have to strike twice for mr sunak to retain the position of prime minister, which is not quite the same thing as saying labour would need, need to win the election because you have to bearin election because you have to bear in mind that even if we were to get a dramatic closure in the polls and as a result, the conservative party ends up being the larger party in a hung parliament, that would still not ensure that mr sunak was prime minister because of the lack of potential coalition allies. you've got to put the two things together. >> fair enough. what is the chance at the moment of a hung parliament? none of the polls seem to be pointing to that at all. >> no, no, i mean, i an.— >> no, no, i mean, i mean, i mean, that in itself is extremely remote. so at the moment, if you just taking the consequence of the most recent regular poll, 19 point labour lead, the worst ever in the polls is about, historically is about nine points add to that what would now, you know, with

what would now, you know, with what would now, you know, with what would constitute a pretty dramatic narrowing of the polls for just the last couple of days. let's take another four off that lead. well, we're still looking to six point labour lead. that would potentially put us into a hung parliament territory. but i'm now taking two very, very strong assumptions. but even with only assumptions. but even with only a six point labour lead, mr sunak does not remain prime minister because he will not be doing well enough to be able to get past the 3 to 6 mark, which effectively the conservatives have to do. labour don't . have to do. labour don't. >> okay, and when i read all this, i said sorry. >> all of that said, i mean, there's the first of the what will doubtless be a forest of these so—called mrp mega polls from survation that they're saying it's over a 90% chance that labour will get more than they did under tony blair in 1997. the conservatives are being hard pressed by liberal democrats to remain the second largest party, so that's arguably a another forecast. at the other end of the spectrum . the other end of the spectrum. >> i mean, these mrp polls, are they to be believed , john? are they to be believed, john? are they to be believed, john? are

they to be taken with a pinch of salt? we've had some predicting just 50 seats for the conservatives, others predicting more than 150, which seems to me to be a wide variance. what should the public make of it all? >> well, actually the highest is 155. not not not not much more than that, the truth is, they should be taken notice of, but not necessarily all of them believe there's there is a crucial similarity between them. and then there is an underlying difference. the crucial similarity. and it's the reason why all of them are pointing to the conservatives, heading for a pretty low number of seats is that they're all finding that the conservative vote is falling most heavily in places where they were previously strongest . they were previously strongest. yeah, that is a pattern that is arithmetically, partly inevitable, because the scale of the conservative loss is such that there's about 100 constituencies where they cannot lose by as much as the national polls are pointing to. it's also because the brexit party did not fight conservative constituencies in 2019. so anything that reform getting

conservative held constituencies is going to be a plus on zero. what they disagree about, about, however, is the extent to which the conservative support will fall more heavily in the places where they were previously strongest. and i think this is in fact the biggest uncertainty about the election. so you're right , it about the election. so you're right, it could be about the election. so you're right , it could be between 50 right, it could be between 50 and 150. we don't know where it will lie within that range, but that does look like the range within which it is likely to lie. and any of those, any figure within that range would represent the worst conservative result in its history could shy conservatives and have been underestimated in the vein of 1992. >> professor. i mean , could it >> professor. i mean, could it be higher than 1992 was not caused by shy stories? >> 1992, like 2015, was caused by the much boring explanation, which is that there were simply too many labour voters in the polls. that said, what is true is it's still true that a that

about, 9% or so of conservative 2019 conservative voters are saying that they're undecided. that number does now seem to be falling as we would expect as we're getting towards polling day. but it's still twice the proportion of 2019 labour voters are saying they're undecided . are saying they're undecided. now, even if you assume that all of those 2019 conservative voters actually go back to the conservatives, but then make the same assumption for labour, you're only going to knock about 3 or 4 points off the labour lead at most. so yes, one of the reasons why in the end , the reasons why in the end, the polls might somewhat overestimate the labour position is because of the undecideds, which you might want to call shy tories. yes, but it's not enough to change the big headline , to change the big headline, which is the conservatives are a very long way behind . very long way behind. >> and what's your prediction for kind of the big theme of the night? obviously, we've already seen all of the polling, which suggests that a labour government is almost an inevitability . the scale of the inevitability. the scale of the tory defeat, we don't quite know it yet , but we think it's going

it yet, but we think it's going to be very large. is it going to be the falling of these big tory beasts? is that going to be the story of the night? successive portillo moments? >> yes. i think it's going to be exactly like 1997. i mean, if indeed the polls are at all right, we are going to see a number of, cabinet ministers lose their seats. and i guess the seat that if it were to go, that would be the nearest equivalent to 20 to 1997 would be penny morton, because penny mordaunt is probably at the moment the lead centralist, centrist candidate for the conservative leadership contest. that will probably ensue after this election, in much the same way as michael portillo occupied a similar position back in 1997. that was, you know, that's the one big beast who we might anticipate will start, who is most clearly at risk. >> all right. professor sirjohn >> all right. professor sir john curtice, thank you very much indeed for your experience and wisdom this evening. lovely to speak to you, i mentioned earlier, chalfont saint giles, let's just read out the candidates for that area. chris chilton is standing for the labour party, gareth david

williams for the conservatives juuan williams for the conservatives julian david foster for the heritage party, justin collect mcpherson fulford for the green party, sarah green for the liberal democrats, lawrence jarvis for reform uk, mohammed pervez khan for the workers party of britain and that constituency in which south saint giles is included is chesham and amersham. coming up next is state of the nation with tom harwood. tom, what are you going to get into this evening ? going to get into this evening? >> well, we're going to be talking to stephen timms of the labour party on what is expected to be a super duper, perhaps supercalifragilistic supercalifragilistic . what on supercalifragilistic. what on earth am i trying to do ? earth am i trying to do? majority according to these latest polls. but we're also going to be looking at postal votes. the uk is only one of seven countries around the world. seven major countries where you can get a postal vote on demand. every other country attaches some qualification. you have to be infirm. you have to be disabled. you have to be away for some reason. do we have far too liberal a system of postal

voting in this country? and is that causing some of the problems? too many people having postal votes that don't need them? and is that causing some of the problems with delivery? we'll be getting into that discussion as well. but that's not all. we've got a gb news exclusive on that channel 4 sting into reform uk. what exactly did they ask those activists? >> oh, wonderful. well stay tuned for that. i'm going to be back tomorrow at 7 pm. but up next is the weather with alex burkill . burkill. >> it looks like things are heating up. boxt boilers sponsors of weather on gb news . sponsors of weather on gb news. >> good evening. i'm here with your gb news, weather forecast brought to you by the met office. it's not feeling all that much like july at the moment. yes, there has been some sunshine around today, but temperatures have actually been around a little bit below average for the time of year, and it is going to turn increasingly cloudy and wet as we go through tonight because of

a system that's pushing its way southwards. yes, there may be some clear skies to start the night in the south, but here it's going to turn very cloudy and everywhere we are going to see a lot of cloud and then that rain pushing its way in, some of that rain heavy across some parts of northern england, the cloud, the rain. and for some of us, some blustery winds means temperatures are going to stay up. most places holding up in double figures, a bit of a soggy start. then for many of us tomorrow morning, there could still be some heavy bursts of rain around, though most of that is going to clear away towards the east quite quickly. and in fact, by the time we get to 7:00 in the morning across some central southern parts of england, there could be some dnen england, there could be some drier, brighter weather around a bit cloudier further north across other parts of england and wales, and in fact across parts of northern ireland, western scotland. we're going to see another band of rain pushing its way in. this rain could be quite persistent, though not especially heavy. a little bit dner especially heavy. a little bit drier first thing across eastern parts of scotland, perhaps north—east england. but this band, affecting western scotland and northern ireland, is gradually going to make its way east and south eastwards as we go through the day. so more

places over northern england, wales, southwest england, perhaps turning a damp again as we go through the afternoon. elsewhere there will be some dner elsewhere there will be some drier weather around, cloudier towards the east, brighter skies towards the east, brighter skies towards the east, brighter skies towards the northwest with some showers mixed in and temperatures still a little bit below average for the time of yeah below average for the time of year. just about getting to the low 20s on thursday. there's going to be a bit of a north south split in the north. we can expect some blustery winds and some fairly frequent showers . some fairly frequent showers. some of these could be on the heavy side further south, though, across many central southern parts of england and wales , it's actually looking wales, it's actually looking largely dry and lighter winds. here too, with plenty of sunshine. by friday, though, more of us are likely to see some wet and windy weather. have a great evening. bye bye. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on

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>> good evening . gb. news >> good evening. i'm tom harwood, bringing you state of the nation . tonight. fears have the nation. tonight. fears have risen that thousands of postal votes across 90 plus constituencies may not arrive in time. the government blames the royal mail, and the royal mail blames the government. but will thousands of postal voters be disenfranchised ? and is the disenfranchised? and is the postal voting system now simply too big? find out shortly . too big? find out shortly. meanwhile, reform uk has suffered yet another candidate backing the tories, this time claiming the majority of the party's candidates are racist, misogynistic and bigoted . now misogynistic and bigoted. now labour's migrants plan has faced criticism for not being particularly different to what is being pursued already, save for the fact they intend to scrap the planned rwanda deportations. plus, the reform channel 4 racism row plots thickens, with a gb news exclusive that suggests there was more to the investigation than meets the eye. state of the nafion than meets the eye. state of the

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