parents and the conditions of the society should not be seen in the issue of policies in the field of population and child-rearing technology . in relation to this issue, can you talk to us a little in the name of allah, the most merciful and the most merciful. i offer my courtesy and respect to you, dear viewers and mr. dr. alami, look at the discussion. raising a product is a multifaceted and multifaceted process that actually requires problem solving and looking at the problem requires a look. a system is a set of factors that lead a family to decide to add another member to itself or to form a family and add a child to its family. he added that there is a set of factors that if we don't look at this in a systematic way and only one- dimensionally , we want to influence this decision by creating local restrictions or incentives, not that much. it is successful and not if

it happens, it will achieve our desired result. why is it not successful? because the family is the opposite of the politician who looks one-dimensionally. sometimes the legislator only looks at the issue from one angle in a closed room and does not look at the country's capabilities , and we see this in the same law on the youth of the population. the government does not have the possibility to implement it, but now it is constantly being implemented. nazarti said that 30% has been implemented after two years . even the legislators who are in the parliament are not satisfied with the process of implementing the law. this shows that the same process of the law that includes 200 orders in this law, 200 missions and 200 orders is more than 200 orders. it has been approved at all based on the capabilities of the country, the economic capabilities of the government , and the family not paying attention to these. this is not the case. the decision of the decision-making process is a process that makes decisions based on its needs, based on its conditions. therefore, this law

will not succeed because it has not seen a system. in addition if these local incentives such as giving priority in the car lottery or allocating land, many of which have not been fully realized. if this works, because we have not seen a system where the population becomes the driver of the country's development , it will hinder the country's development in the future, and this one-dimensional view. that we introduce a direction and a stimulus to a place and then expect a suitable output and that output will work according to the conditions of the country, this is a mechanical view, in addition to the fact that in the law , unfortunately, the legislator instead of the cultural dimension of the law should pay more attention and basically look at this as a social and cultural phenomenon by imposing restrictions on various types of methods, for example

, imposing restrictions on methods of preventing pregnancy. the law is a kind of discretion, freedom and wise power , and he questioned the family's maturity in making decisions in this area. there are several articles, one of which is about finding and tracking after pregnancy test is one of the restrictions on access , all of which are seen in this law in the discussion of fertility tests, each of which may have supporters and opponents. the increase in the population works against this and it gives an ideological burden to families that are formed by a larger number of children, and even gives it a political meaning, and this itself acts as a deterrent in a part, for example, in non-moderate fever. but that

part of hashem's attraction may be affected in some parts of the country yes, but as i said, we didn't have a systematic approach, either if i succeed, it won't succeed, or if i succeed , it won't solve the country's problem , it will add more problems to the country's problems . he waited for the people to get better or for the rest of the conditions and aspects to improve , and then we will come with policy making. what is your view on population growth and childbearing? in the name of allah, the most merciful , the most merciful, i am greeting and polite to my dear viewers , sarkari and mr. asnafi, please see the discussion of politics. it has been around 30 to 40 years since the population of the countries involved in the debate.

as people get older, their policies have gradually changed, and these countries are also diverse, from countries that are economically well-off like germany and japan, and countries that are a little lower like bulgaria and other places. basically, we want to say wait first. how long is this expectation and what is the criterion, but even if we leave that criterion aside, we have a time to actually compensate for the issue of old age because you are a young population capable of fertility. you have that if they are of the same age passing is not able to compensate for this issue. in addition, the period we are talking about to solve the problem of old age from 1433

onwards means that whatever we are planning now , we want to see the result in about 30 years. well, now we have economic problems, yes, but do we want economic problems to remain in another 30 years? it means that we do not want to solve these economic problems in this time , and even if those economic problems remain, we will have a new problem called old age in addition to our other problems. it is added, which means the problem old age, so what happened should be done as soon as possible so that it can be solved on time. also, if you don't solve the problem, it will be added to your other problems, and i would even add that solving part of our economic problems, which i will explain now, if possible , is dependent on solving the population problem. you see, now a country like japan

, we forget that its economic growth and that we know japan with brands like sony, panasonic, etc. this is young japan , now it is old japan, its economic growth is going down, germany is having problems like this, so i don't know the country that is suffering. one can be old or have not thought of solving that problem, so it is a rule of reason. that if you want to prevent your old age in the future , and we have this opportunity, we will reach a place in 30 years where this is the same as the current generation, we need it for another 30 years, for example , many of these investments are also 20 years.

he will answer in 10 years, are these trends? let's look at the trends of the last 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years . the future is nothing but an extension of the past until today. you see, we were able to solve these problems , but now we want to add the population to this well, i think that in those matters, at least we are losing time, there are signs of serious and significant changes in the rate of investment in the country. well, 2 years ago, it is less than that, which means that our investment is not enough to maintain the current situation, and it is less than maintaining the current situation. with these trends, suppose we add a population to the existing population of the country, and those other proposals, such as investment, etc. which leads to production, we do not do this in the department the sources of water sources, which i think are clear conditions

, do not need to be explained. the reports of policy-making and governance centers, such as the majlis research center on the future of energy in iran, which have been published publicly , have also been published, some parts of which have not been published . let's look at the future of the country if we don't invest seriously in the gas industry . will we be able to be gas exporters in 7 years? right now , we have a shortage of gas in some of our power plants. we burn early in the summer we have a shortage of electricity. our industry is suffering from a shortage of electricity . right now, with the same population , yes, if we make serious investments , will the economic conditions of the country allow, for example, in the next 3 years, in the next 5 years , we will invest 20 billion dollars in the electricity sector, if we can. such an investment shows the economic reality of the country. yes, the population can also be added to this. our oil gas industry needs serious investments, none

of which happened in the past years, and these investments will pay off in the next 20 years. the point i am saying is that if we think this let's not change the population to a place where it will act as a disadvantage for the country in the future , it will become a threat to the country's economy. if it doesn't lead to investment, if we are going to sell the oil , we should divide it among ourselves and consume it together, then we can reduce this denominator as much as possible. i say that if this development is not going to happen, we don't see any signs of change, so at least we have a bad choice. and worse, let's choose, mr. alami, i hear your answer i would like to ask you to attend, because now the topic is too much, but let me tell you some facts. first of all, no country

has solved the economic and unemployment problem, for example, unemployment by reducing the population. employment policy and economic policy are a science and a science. it is a management that has nothing to do with me wanting to reduce the population. i would like to tell you even more . a review of the world bank statistics shows that there is no country in the world whose per capita income has decreased with the increase in population. per capita income is the share of each person. the income of the whole country will not only decrease it hasn't, but it's not even fixed in all the countries of the world, with the increase in their population, the share of each person in their income has increased, even with the constant dollar of 2017. what does it mean? that is, remove the swelling from it. these world bank statistics

show this. therefore, unlike the past, the scientific literature of the world has also changed, now it is about 40 years old, 50 years old , for example, the book of source qai, or now it is latinized as limit resource, is related to the writing of julian simon, who wrote this book in 1981. what is meant by the strong source is that the population is the main source of economic growth. here i will open a parenthesis. mr. snafi says that even now there is a problem in the distribution of resources, and they have a question , which is to point out during their talks that when we are having a problem in the distribution of resources , with what reasoning can we expect economic growth in a future with more population. resources are a matter of management, whether you have a population of 10 million

, 80 million, 300 million or a billion, you can have a management problem . you can also manage it in the best way . it has nothing to do with the size of the population. it is a potential and an energy that moves the economy forward now. example india, which has the highest population, means that india is now the only country that did not establish any family planning policy, and now its population is even higher than china. you see, many theories now confirm that the prerequisite for the growth of the economy, especially the knowledge -based economy, which is now being said a lot, is that we should replace humans with ligaments, in fact , we should mechanize instead of humans. it has shown that no, even to

simplify the matter for the dear viewers of america , i will give you an example , iran has about 10 times more academics, if one of the scientific outputs is articles and books. let's see if iranian faculty members can work 24 hours a day as well as american faculty members. in fact , they can't produce articles and books, it's not possible at all, so we have a necessary condition for progress, and that population says that the population science institution wants the maritime industry of the russian maritime industry. this statistic is from a few years ago. it has half a million engineers, so you see, if

we don't have this manpower, that progress is not possible at all. now we have 8368 knowledge-based companies. if it wasn't for the 60s, the false term population bomb would actually be used without them, these companies would not have been established. therefore, this view is now reversed in the theories . we now have economic nobelists who believe that population causes economic growth, so the issue is being said completely wrongly. it means that the population is not just a consumer. pay attention, if you assume that a person is a consumer until the age of 18, from the age of 18 to the age of 64, which is the retirement age, that is twice the life of a consumer, he can be a producer, and this production is usually more than his personal needs. therefore

, more population does not exactly mean more production means. mr. snafi's consumerism, the population is a necessary condition for economic progress and growth . your answer is that the population is one of the most important and necessary variables for the economic and social development of the country. there is no doubt about this. the clear issue is whether we, without repeating my previous sentence, can we reach this point without looking at the other necessary variables and taking a systemic look at it? i would like to say a few things. one is that, for example, now i am never referring to the world bank. now, in my opinion, honestly international institutions should be viewed with skepticism kurds, but one of the most serious recommendations of the world bank

to iran in the 70s, one of the preconditions for granting long-term loans to the iranian economy in those years, which was never realized , was population control policies. we see that no, this population increase policy is a policy that is against the recommendations of the world bank, which by the way, in my opinion, is correct from this aspect. another issue is that iran's economy cannot be compared with any economy in the world because we have a serious variable called sanctions in this economy, that is, our economy we plan without paying attention to the fact that the sanctions have been in effect for almost 20 years now , that is, iran has always been under sanctions, but these new sanctions that have been implemented around the nuclear issue have been in effect for almost 20 years now, which means that we are with a we are slowly facing the economic phenomenon of a generation without looking at this fact and

if we want to copy other versions that have worked in other countries, i think we will not succeed. the final point i want to say in this regard it is that this population phenomenon is more than we want from the economic door let's get into it. if something is going to happen, it will happen from a cultural perspective. this economic path shows the facts that nothing will change. look, we are going to, yes, we hope that the economic problems of these serious decisions. it may happen in the country, but consider the fact that we cannot develop all the sectors together, at all , we cannot have serious investment in the field of electricity and in the field of gas, and these are not the consumption of the population. the roots of economic development means yes, not all of the country's population is going to become dependent on oil, but yes

a series of infrastructures, such as energy and roads, now good things have happened in the field of roads. like water, these are the things that are needed as a prerequisite for any economic activity in any economy . let me give another example. look, in the 60s, we had an index , a support index in pension funds or funds whose task is to support people after the employment period. yes, this index was 29 in the 1960s, in the early 1960s, which means that 29 people were working for every 1 salaried retired person. and they pay insurance premiums for this index today, while people born in the 60s make up about 17-18% of the country's population they are at the peak of their maturity , that is, the peak of the population has reached the point where they are working in the same field of production, in a situation where the best

demographic situation we have now that we are talking about is the 1960s and 1970s, while these entering this age, the support index of our pension funds is between 5 and 6, that is why all of them are now in a broken state . look at the budget of your government every year and see why the government should pay for pension funds from the general budget . it has thousands of billions a year. it happens and it is also increasing, that is, to pension funds are one of the serious economic crises of the country in the past years and will get worse in the future. let's keep it here . i will raise a part of your conversation in the form of a question with mr. alami.

look, now, of course, their argument was that iran is under sanctions. just yesterday, i was reading the news that america has sanctioned half of the world's economy with its own policies. it is not only our country, but different countries are sanctioned in different ways and things, but the sanctions have nothing to do with the issue of population. when you are sanctioned, you should not reduce your population in order to deal with it. in this way , you lose one of your potentials, and no one wants to reduce their own potentials to solve a problem. the point to say about the statistics of the world bank is that the world bank gets its own statistics from countries, and those are the recommendations of the world bank that we must

follow. for example, the statistics of iran itself are also received from the iranian statistics center and in fact the central bank, thanks to your presence, which is why the economy iran is not really isolated, we even saw the field of employment in a research that we conducted, that the generation of the 60s is often mentioned as a generation that, in fact, because they are more unemployed now , they are not able to access resources, according to the research that was conducted. and comparing between generations , that is, between the generations of the 60s, 40s, 50s, 70s, and even a part of the 80s, we saw that by the way, the employment of these is more, the employment of the 60s is more, and

the reason is the mechanisms that exist within the population. it is the same market as the product market, for example, yours in tehran. there are many people in tehran who actually find work because tehran has more population , more population, more consumption, bigger market and bigger production . usually, it is the capital issue that the depletion of the capital attraction power of an economy is dependent on the bigger market and many economists know this as why the bigger population of tehran? now it can attract all this capital because it has its own consumer population

, it has its own bigger market. in contrast to america, the population of america, look at america , which reached 300 million, planned to reach 350 million, why this? he does it because he can actually maintain his potential , so this part, when we say, basically , the population, you see, the population not only weakens the economy , but now the world bank itself, which again , the world bank was one of the staunch defenders of family planning, read now i think it was published in 2003 or 2006. after reviewing a large number of researches about different countries , he came to the conclusion that we no longer call countries

reduce or increase your population , but also correct your economic policy . you see, this is a very cautious position. we call it the neutral point of view. while it remains , i want to say that even the bank the world that once advocated family planning has now taken back its words. my colleagues are preparing a report in relation to other different views that exist around this issue. let's go and see this report together. the issue of population and population increase policies against population control policies that in the past was on the agenda , and it has brought different opinions and analysis over the years. shahla kazmipour, demographer. contrary to the opinion of many experts, the birth control policies of the ministry

of health at the time of the country only. 20% has played a role in reducing the birth rate and the improvement of life indicators by 80% has been effective in the country's demographic changes and lowering the birth rate. mohammad ismail akbari, the former head of the jamiat working group of the expediency discernment council. the format of the population policies implemented in iran was designed by international organizations and we intervened and artificially and without demographic monitoring , we followed the hundred-year path of western countries. and we limited and aged the population very soon. the biggest obstacles in the way of reforming the structure of the population are cultural, but very important economic issues should not be ignored . appropriate policies should be adopted in order to define a suitable and optimal population for the country, but the main point is whether this population is controlled by the government or government policies, or the issue is due to the economic pressure on the people, which does not allow them to have children

. all countries. in fact, nothing from technological advances to scientific and industrial growth will be possible without considering human power. it is not surprising that all countries put a huge part of their focus on the development of human resources and invest in this matter in terms of quantity and quality. in connection with the fact that population growth is the priority . with the provision of other conditions, it is preferable to bring up that point, mr. alami , they gave an example and said how it is now that tehran , as one of the large and densely populated cities of the country , is the place to go for employment, in fact, applicants this is a lot, in fact, to confirm the argument that we should not wait for other indicators and that it is actually the population itself.

what is your opinion on this important variable? see, this priority is not meant to be a time priority, that is, it is not like we go and fix these things first, then the population, no, my point was that we do not see the decision-making and evolution in these indicators, otherwise it is possible to develop all of these together, now one step at a time. ahead, a few steps behind , there is no precedence or delay in this matter at all . this is a matter of a matter. now about another topic tehran, and now another example about india , look at tehran, this can be taken into account , whether there is a large population in tehran that has a relatively better employment situation, or the capital that exists in tehran, that is, we have an accumulation of capital in tehran. in addition to the fact that we are dealing with a large national issue with an example , i think it is better not to deal with it, but in many

indicators. refah is one of the most backward regions of tehran in indicators such as per capita sports space and per capita green space. these are the indicators that are in a bad state in tehran. i think we should not give an example. it is better to look at india . yes, india is the fifth largest economy in the world, but in a large part of this population , access to resources is minimal. now, i don't remember the number now, but it is a significant number. the access of the people of india. a significant part of the people of india do not have access to sanitary facilities . that is, we look at such an indicator if we mean welfare . we look at development, but why development? it is opposed to economic growth. by the way, when we say development, we mean the growth of all these indicators, not that we only look at the country's economic growth.

a very big thing that happens in the middle of the population, like india, for example, we are facing a terrible gini coefficient, well, the iranian society does not accept such a gini coefficient, neither does the iranian society, its dignity allows it, nor does this culture allow this to happen, so this is my emphasis. on the basis that we see the situation of our own country as indigenous , the other issue is that sanctions are not an excuse for not taking action. i did not say that because we are sanctioning our population , i did not say that the sanctions are an economic reality, just as the leadership said that all decisions should be made with the assumption that the sanctions will remain in place. are we in this situation that this is an important economic indicator, whoever says it is not and we should not pay attention to it at all, is running away from reality , and the person who says that only the economic reality of the country is sanctioned is also running away from reality, a coward.