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tv   [untitled]    January 20, 2024 4:30am-5:01am IRST

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let's take a look at the statistics, as you are sure, every graph you get from the world bank has written under it where it got it from, for example, iran's statistics are also obtained from the iranian statistics center and in fact the central bank. even in the field of employment, in a research that we conducted, we saw that the employment of the 10-60 generation is often mentioned as a generation that, in fact, because they are more unemployed, they cannot access resources . according to the research that was conducted, the comparison between generations between the generations of the 60s, 40s, 50s, 70s and even part of the 80s we saw that by the way, the employment of these people is more than the employment of the 60s. it is more and the reason is the mechanisms
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that exist in the population. i will make it very simple . you see, the population is both a consumer and a market for products. bigger market and production. it has been bigger . it is usually the same discussion of capital that says that the power of attracting capital of an economy depends on the bigger market, and many economists think this is related to the larger population of tehran. why can it do so much now? to attract capital because it has its own consumer population , it has its own bigger market, why the european union countries
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unite to form the european union, because the population of the european union can only see the population of the united states in front of the united states. when it reached 300 million, it planned to reach 30 million. why is it doing this because it can actually maintain its potential ? so this part, if we say that the population is basically the population , the population not only weakens the economy , but now the bank itself. the world that opened the bank jahani was one of the staunch defenders of family planning. now, i think he published a study in 203 or 2006. after reviewing a large number of studies about different countries, he came to the conclusion that we no longer tell countries to reduce
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or increase their population. rather, correct your economic policy. you see, this is a very cautious position and we call it the neutral view , while there are different views that emphasize the strengthening of the population for the economy. i want to say that even the world bank, which once advocated family planning, now backs its words taken preparing a report for my colleagues regarding other different views that exist around this issue. let's go to see this report together. the issue of population and population growth policies against population control policies that were on the agenda in the past has brought different opinions analysis in recent years. shahla kazmipour, demographer. contrary to the opinion of many experts on the birth control policies of the ministry of health. the country's time only
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played a 20% role in reducing the birth rate and improving life indicators by 80% in the demographic changes of the country and below. the birth rate has been effective. mohammad ismail akbari, the former head of the jamiat working group of the expediency discernment council. the format of the population policies implemented in iran was designed by international organizations, and during 30 years we intervened artificially and without population monitoring , followed the hundred-year path of western countries, and very soon the population was limited and aged. the biggest obstacles in the way of reforming the structure of the population are cultural, but very important economic issues should not be ignored , appropriate policies should be adopted in order to define a suitable and optimal population for the country, but the main point it is whether this population is controlled by the government or the policies of the governments, or whether the issue is due to the economic pressure on the people, which does not allow them to have children, hamed moslehi rawan. it
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is obvious that the problem of population is a basic prerequisite for the development of all countries. in fact, nothing happens, from technological advances to scientific and industrial growth, without considering human power. it will not be humanly possible. it is not surprising that all countries put a huge part of their focus on the development of human resources and invest in this matter in terms of quantity and quality. in connection with the fact that population growth is the priority the provision of other conditions is a priority to raise that point, mr. alami, give an example and say how it is now in tehran. as one of the big and populous cities of the country , there are actually many applicants for employment . this actually confirms the argument that we should not wait for other indicators and that the population itself is really an important variable
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. what is your opinion about this? you see, this priority does not mean time priority, that is, it is not like we go and fix this first, then the population, no , i meant that we make decisions and changes in this we don't see the indicators, otherwise it is possible to develop all of these together. now one is a few steps ahead, one is a few steps behind. at all , there is no precedence or delay in this matter in this way. this is another matter, now about tehran and now another example is to say about india, look at tehran , this can be taken into account, whether in tehran through mediation. there is a large population that has a relatively better employment situation or the capital that exists in tehran , which means that we are facing an accumulation of capital in tehran, in addition to the fact that we are not dealing with a major national issue with an example like this. it is better, but in many welfare indicators
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, tehran is one of the most backward regions of the country in indicators such as sports space per capita. sabz, these are indicators that are very bad in tehran. i don't think we should use such an example . it's better to look at india. yes, india is the fifth largest economy in the world, but a large part of this population is deprived of access to the necessary resources. i don't remember the number now, but it is a significant number. the access of the indian people, a significant part of the indian people do not have access to the toilet. that is, if we mean such an index look at prosperity. our view of development is why development is opposed to economic growth . by the way, when we say development, we mean the growth of all these indicators, not that we only look at the economic growth of the country
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. the population happens like in india, where, for example, we are faced with a terrible gini coefficient, well, it is not iranian society that accepts such a gini coefficient , so my emphasis is that we see the situation of our own country natively. another issue is that sanctions are an excuse for action. i did n't say it because we are boycotting our population, not saying it i sanctioned it as an economic fact , just as the leadership said that all decisions should be made by default. are we in this situation that this is an important economic indicator, not everyone who says it is and we should not pay attention to it at all is running away from reality , the person who says that only the economic reality of the country is sanctioned is also running away from reality , it is a variable like all other variables. it is also important
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, they emphasized that the sanction is the sanction of the population, not the population. well, this is my point of view. by the way , this is exactly what i was saying from the beginning, that we should have a systemic view. we shouldn't talk like that, people it is a fruit that is obtained from a tree, that tree wants light, which means it wants investment , it wants water, it wants energy, it wants energy, and many other economic indicators of the country, when these were solved , they moved towards improvement by themselves. the population bears fruit, which means there is no need to make laws . yes, there are a series of cultural variables that we have children at all in our society. unfortunately , it is becoming a part of the country's media consumption basket. these are the places where we need to work. let me give you a small example when i say sanctions and the economic situation the population is quite effective, let me give a small example, that is
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, review the minimum salary approved for workers in the last 10 years in the country, compared to today, shoes are one fifth , the purchasing power of workers is one fifth. this has decreased 5 times over the last 10 years, considering the salary floor , so by which family should this birth happen, since it is not going to be the same workers and the same economic sector. the country wants to do this again. well, have we considered the conditions at all? the parliament that approved this law now has a 2-year floor on the worker 's salary. inflation is being approved. how can we see in a parliament that the law on the youth of the population comes out of the same parliament for 2 years in a row, less than half of the inflation , the worker's salary increase is approved? well, that means, excuse me , it comes in the budget, and then the salary council approves it. does right now, we
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are seeing the government's proposal for next year's budget , the government of a large employer in a country where the largest employer has included about 17-18% in its budget. well, this shows that in two months, the labor council will approve it by 23%. why someone as the concerned population does not protest or look at this important index. so how do we deal with these economic realities? the subsistence level of a householder, the minimum wage, purchasing power, all of this is a gift dependent on the value of the national currency, which is affected by sanctions . is it possible for us to look at such a matter in a one -dimensional way? look at the world , what they say means that the introduction they make is correct , it means that we actually have a systemic view of the population , the population is a trans-sector issue, it depends on housing , health, education, and many other sectors.
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the development and progress of a country is both a result of it and an effect on it, that is , it is both of them. he did not take any action at all and in fact welfare and economic policies will automatically reach such a result . let me share the experience of the countries. before you mention the experience, how many countries did you ask about these verses ? what is your answer? sorry, i have not finished my sentence yet, so i have to answer them in fact, the answer to these questions is that in different countries, while you
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are dealing with your economy, you have your economic policies , you have your employment policies, housing, etc. , you have the relevant laws and regulations, but when you face a certain crisis in a certain period, it for that period of crisis, you should propose a specific policy, for example , in bulgaria in 2001, you had a strategic plan. jamiat ran from 2006 to 2020, but before that , he amended all the laws and regulations of all departments that were against jamiat, and besides , if you look at jamiat's program, you will see that it has been attacked by many sectors, which means it is completely a development program, housing, employment, health, etc. why is it like this? does it mean that bulgaria is waiting for its development and then
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its population will be fixed? no, it has a special program for housing to fix its population, it has a special program for education , it has a special cultural program in the hands of the australian government delegation. similarly, you should look at the australian population plan. its name is population development, which means population development, not population increase. again, he devoted the first two or three pages to the increase in population, then he said, "okay, well , what kind of transportation do i need to reach this population?" i want housing, so these are not contradictions , but it will be a special program , that is, instead of leaving the population aside, you should say, i have nothing to do with this right now, i will do my economic work , i will solve my sanctions, i will solve my investment , and then people will make their own personal decision.
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they come to the conclusion that they should increase their number of children. this is a position. a position is that no, while i am working on my economic variables and my welfare variables, the population variable is working especially. population policies are good they have a separate name, that is, england. germany has been encouraging children for years, france has been encouraging children for many years, bulgaria has been doing the same for many years, and if their economic situation is good, it would have the same result. gave they came to him and put a series of incentives. they put a series of policies that yes, these policies may be different in our country because our culture is different, and by the way, now we are discussing that culturally, our country has a lot of capacity to
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solve its population problem much faster than european countries. it doesn't cost that much. in fact, see if i want let's take an example: the decrease in the fertility rate in iran from 64 percent in 13 and 1966, if i'm not mistaken , will reach two percent by 2081 or two, that is, within 16 to 17 years . it decreases. we cannot attribute this to cultural changes. many people say that modernity has happened in iran and very heavy cultural changes have taken place. the same change in european and american countries took about 150 to 200 years. we can call it cultural change. but how about change, we
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say about any other cultural variable that it should take 50 or 100 years to change. iranian adoption a child is still desirable for them. marriage is desirable for them. 88 single young people of marriageable age are willing to get married according to the survey that was conducted. but there are some obstacles. yes, i accept this. but do we have to wait for all our economic problems to be solved in order for the population to be solved? no, we have to solve both our economic problems and our population problem in a separate way , and let me say this, we even in the secretariat, in fact, in the expediency determination assembly , we told the members of the parliament that this law alone is not enough , this is one of the there are laws that should have been approved
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in the heart of this law, article 73 of the youth law of the population. it has been said that the other laws and regulations of the institutions are required to be amended and this is the most important article of this law, that is, now the ministry of housing should amend the rules governing the assignment of housing, the ministry of education and higher education . you should not be employed, well, this in itself is an obstacle to marriage, and there are many other laws that we don't have much time for now. there are many laws and regulations that are being implemented now, and the violation of the population discussion is much more important than the fact that we in fact, let's just emphasize that in a way , i will complete the orders of the guilds in this way that
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we must move forward as a system, but right now it is like a crisis that has arisen in one corner of the system , while you should not forget the rest of the system , that crisis in a special way. think about it, because it will come back later, it will harm your system, that is, if you don't think about it now , your growth rate will be zero in 1430, your society will become old, and then it will start to reduce the population , and all those dreams you had for the growth and development of the country will be wasted. do you agree mr. snuffy? with which part is related to the last part of their conversation and pointing out that if we do not make policies in this area, in fact, according to them, it is the dreams or other plans that we have made for the country that will actually be harmed, the main problem in this i see that we
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see the population as the center of the country's problems. our problem for the future of the country is what should be on the table. population as one of the variables affecting development, we should look at it seriously. if what i am saying is that if we solve the problem of population, we assume that we have a situation where the population of the country will increase at all. if the growth rate is below 2, for example, it should go back to 20, 40, 60, 40. we can assume that we can do this. without those other variables that we have explained in detail, what will happen, what will happen, mr. alami , such an assumption is not a correct assumption at all, that is, we did not make such an assumption and we could not do it. see, first of all, the issue of population takes years. we are doing this right now, according to the research we have done, in the best case, all
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these discussions are for people to listen, many times. this most private human behavior means that we are assuming that people will listen and people will come to this conclusion if we add 100 thousand births every year . in addition, in 1420 , we will reach a fertility rate of 4 in the country and in 1430 , we will pass old age. this is a clear goal setting that we must do, but does what we are saying have two cases, or should we not take action now ? it means that 140 we will be caught. or we allowed ourselves to be caught, we referred ourselves to the influence of unpredictable variables, but
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if we act and at the same time, the variables let's work economically, no one said at all that i told you about economics, the science of policy making, employment, housing , these are the same science that you have to work in a different way , no matter how populous your country is. we have many countries that are sparsely populated but do not have a good economic situation, on the contrary, we have sparsely populated countries that are also doing well. now , the welfare of the economy and all aspects of development have a problem at the same time. you have a problem here . you can see this problem. in some countries, for example
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, regular programs have been solved in 4 years, 5 years, 6 years, but the population basically cannot be solved in 5 or 6 years. we have to wait, which means that we have to take a lot of action. it's true. in fact , let's hear mr. alami's explanation regarding your question . i want you to complete your statement. after that, i want you to answer this question, what measures should the next parliament take with this statement and the conditions we talked about. keep in mind that i can make the discussion a little clearer al-zaher to the subject. let's look and say that the housing situation has nothing to do with the population. it is directly related , but it is completely related. housing is one of the obstacles to marriage, and marriage
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is a prerequisite for having children. there are about 10,11 million single people who are of marriageable age. well, when this government was formed , it gave a slogan, for example, i am a year old. i will build 2 million housing units, but i will satisfy the dear viewers of the road minister's vote of confidence. the current housing, which wanted to become a minister after the late mr. ghasemi, to make a defense of this plan in the parliament . we don't have problems, so i 'm trying to use that slogan, but it's not possible. this is an example of the variable and prerequisites for population change, which if we don't look at it, suppose, for example, a new population is added to the country. right now, the country's annual population is about one. millions of housing need to enter the housing market. we have been lagging behind in the past
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. we did not produce this number in the past years. if we don't do this in the coming years, the dream of iranians to own a house will reach almost 100 years. let it last 100 years or 20 years. this demographic change will happen whether you expect it or not
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waiting in the field of housing only. these variables cannot all be combined like a chain, only one of them can be developed , all of them must happen together, but my point is clear, the current economic situation of the country shows that the possibility of rapid transformation of what we need in the population is possible in these economic indicators at the moment. it does not exist in the country because of the need for large financial resources because the investment rate has increased in the past many years. he hasn't found that there is a way to go back to the issue of sanctions. these have created a backwardness in the country, which does not allow the rapid growth that we want for the population. if this happens, in fact, i don't want to give a warning and say that it will happen if the population increases . it is possible to be the opposite
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of a politician. in order to solve this issue now, we have a series of short-term measures and a series of long-term measures, and both of them must be done, for example, the issue of marriage that you mentioned. it is a very important issue. we have 116 million singles of marriageable age, which have a huge capacity to increase and their obstacles now after all, i don't know what my priorities are, but housing and employment are definitely one of them. improving the housing and employment situation is definitely effective on these, but at the same time as i said, we should also have a special program
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, for example, your time. you now have the possibility of married dormitories. universities have a lot of vacant land and the facilities of the ministry of housing have provided them with financial connections . now, our total married dormitories are 1,505 units , while we have 630,000 married students, so we have two and a half million singles. that you provide a dormitory for married couples, and this is the power of the universities we have to solve these , and we also have to solve the country's general problem regarding economy and welfare . if we don't solve the problem, what is happening in the country now, in the last 10 years, the quantitative
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and qualitative trend of the migration of young people, elites, technicians, even nurses, doctors, look at these in the past years, we have a population, we spent, we nurtured it. we gave, we spent on education, we spent on higher education, from the country's capital we have spent money, we have matured a force, because the other economic variables are not available, from a foreign country, that is, in fact, we have spent money, others will use it. this is the result of a one-dimensional view of the subject. thank you. views of two works. we have heard the expert on the requirements and requirements of population policy. thank you for being higher with higher.
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this movement is based on mutual respect.

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