tv [untitled] January 25, 2024 1:30am-2:00am IRST
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sir, whenever a country's capital account is open, you cannot stabilize the interest rate and the land rate. you cannot have an independent land rate and interest rate policy . you can do one of these two, you can do one of these two. those countries that are pegged to the dollar, such as the uae and saudi arabia , have an independent monetary policy. they don't have it mr. hassan khani, their monetary policy is the monetary policy of the federal reserve , that is, the uae that you gave as an example, the uae, when the interest rate of the federal reserve comes to its meeting, the interest rate goes up by 5 percentage points, as they say , it goes up to five hundredths of a percent on the same day. the same hour the central bank of the emirates applies the same policy regarding its own interest rate, on the other hand, the rate.
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the growth of liquidity means that they say that the rate of inflation has nothing to do with the stabilization of the exchange rate. i came between them. my point is, is it possible for inflation to have nothing to do with the exchange rate ? they don't have an independent monetary policy. their policy is to give money to the united states. they make money and you can't do this. first of all, they are the enemy of america . you see, those who say these things , by the way, want to completely dollarize iran's economy. this means the dollarization of the economy, that is, politics your money is in the hands of the federal reserve of america . this means the dollarization of the economy and monetary policy . if you don't have monetary policy, the monetary policy should be in the hands of the united states. why would your entire industry be destroyed in order for your exchange rate to be stable ? on the other hand, the uae and saudi arabia have currency reserves because their oil production is relatively their population is 5, 6 and 8 times that of iran, it is natural that they can do this. they don't care what
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happens to their other industries, with tourism and the financial industry , and these compensate for the problems that occur to the rest of their industries, so a country with high inflation cannot implement a stabilization policy at all. because the width of the product is three markets , if you want , you can do it with your reserves, the same things that have happened in iran's economy, i ask another question from the other side. i say, well, the stabilization policy that iranian governments always want to do, why couldn't they, if it were possible, sir, you make a mistake for one year, you make a mistake for two years, you can't make a mistake for 50 years, if you made this mistake for one year, you realized that you can't continue for the second year , that's it. the price is too high. you continued for the third year . you are a traitor. if you continued for the third year , you are betraying this country. we have the suffering of these people. you increase it, so first of all, this is politics.
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they do not have independent money, secondly, they are completely dependent on america , thirdly , this is possible for countries with large horizontal reserves, it is not possible for iran, so a country with high inflation, a country with low productivity , a country whose expectations for the future of its economy are different from the american economy, this country cannot at all. stabilize the exchange rate, but this country can do it by properly controlling the monetary and financial policy, which means by reducing it. a large number of budgets and by controlling the monetary policy, that is, with the variable interest rate, this country can do something that the value rate in between may the period be stable , what we did not do in iran's economy after 1957, we only went to fight with economics and stabilize it, no matter how hard we tried , we ran out of resources.
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their skin, blood and bones were experienced by me in 1996, mr. familton, mr. bigron, i was in 1996, excuse me, in 1996, i wrote an article in august or july 1996 , when the price of land was 2900 tomans . 6,200 tomans, if you put 290, it means that you are seriously interfering in the economy and this rate jump what happened to the leap that he made? until the end of 1996 , with 18 billion dollars, he intervened with 18 billion dollars . it was offered 6 thousand tomans to keep in april 2017, and then it went up to 18 thousand tomans until august. this policy is the only one if you agree. let's see a report together, my colleague
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in the vanco group is preparing a review of the opinions of the pros and cons of the issue we are talking about. the expert economically, in a country that has a shortage of foreign exchange resources due to sanctions , it is necessary to implement the policy of stabilizing the exchange rate because this country urgently needs to import raw materials of basic goods and medicine. mohammad ghafouri is an expert in the economy of the stabilization of the exchange rate due to the budget deficit to the detriment of production. suppressing the exchange rate makes us have periods of stabilization and growth. the dollar rate should be formed in the currency market with supply and demand. mehdi nosrati, university lecturer and economic researcher, at the current stage, the policy of stabilizing the exchange rate is the right policy and should be continued. the current government has achieved two major goals has the field of economics. first, reducing inflation, curbing inflationary expectations, and secondly, providing
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financing and foreign investment. failure to stabilize the currency can ruin these gains. samii, head of esfaq kanon. saqrafan, mandatory stabilization of land prices for the long term or even the medium term is neither possible nor even useful, and in a situation where the inflation rate in our country is more than 10 times that of the countries in the dollar zone, the rise in currency prices should not be prevented, and one should only be careful. if this price increase is not accompanied by turbulence , the artificial and mandated prices will not be stable we saw the report together, mr. hassan khani . in your opinion, this stabilization policy that mr. al-husseini pointed out in terms of their own efforts and enumerated its disadvantages , do you think this stabilization policy is completely wrong, or should it continue, should we stabilize it in this way? let's fix it or anything else, i haven't finished the introduction yet
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, you can continue with the rest of the introduction, the program will end, well , i'll be very brief, see, let's have an attack , well, naturally, this issue is very complicated, the issue is not as simple as they say that we should monetary policy to stabilize the economy let's face it, this issue is not a correct issue, it means that this sentence is not a correct sentence, the monetary policy is not correct for both sides, the reason is that the monetary policy is a demand-side policy, when you have a supply-side shock to the supply side, you cannot fully cover it with the demand-side policy , this is a flawed issue. to the model that they said. mr. olivier blanchard has an article in 2017 , they divide the economic models into five categories. i have a question for you. with which economic model are those five categories? this is a series of models we have, its name is in the toy model , like the ice alam model. that is useful for modeling
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currency and i don't know, currency policy is not accepted in our country, other models are foundation models, there are basic models, some models are blind models , some models are forexcasting or forecasting models, and some models are policy models. which model did you use? which model did you work with? which default assumption did you work with? i don't want to have a dispute about their results . i want to complain about the modeling literature in iran's economy. in your opinion, we should fix the exchange rate and order or not the country that you are in favor of stabilization in the invitation intensity program.
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it was not a fixed policy in any way, i will explain now, of course, the orders. because they said it in a way that we have been since 1957, as if we , for example, before 1957, here in iran , there were flowers and night owls and many very good stories. after 1957 , everything was completely messed up . in the name of stabilization policy , based on the definition in the economic literature, it is not stabilization, what does it mean, sir, put one rate in the middle of the other rates, declare it unofficially , explain the same, vaisa, and the same, what we have now is politics. what does anchorage mean, sir ? i consider a rate for a series of specific goods for a specific time for a limited period of time in order to support the people's livelihood so that this shock
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is absorbed by the economy and controlled with whatever effects and trends there are. may its effects be reduced. later , i will think of a solution. when a central bank chief comes, he says, "sir , i want to give you 20,28,500 from today, 28,500 . he doesn't say that he wants to give all the goods. it happened once, and he did something wrong, that servant." god, who said 420th of the next month, corrected his mistake, of course. no correction, not that i want to to confirm it, i believe that policy 420 was wrongly introduced, wrongly continued, and wrongly removed . and in fact, let's be a mental distortion, mr. farzin came and said, sir, i want to pay 28 to 500 for a series of special goods, the name of this policy is not stabilization policy at all. the second anchor policy, if the same anchor policy wanted to be successful, of course
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, mr. farzin calls it stabilization. it's a wrong policy. basically, we don't have anything called a letter of determination in this way. it has a specific definition . if it's the same policy, whatever the name is , whoever the friend is , whatever the name is, there is a rule. the rule is that when mr. you say that i want to give preferential rates to some goods, you must specify those goods, which goods, which list of hss you want to offer, on july 140 and 9, 1400, it was announced on july 1401, the list of hss in it came that sir , we want to tell them that this is a mistake, mr. al-hassanini, mr. hassan khani, they say that this is basically nothing. it is not stabilization that you mentioned
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, because the stabilization policy, now that i know what it is, is not applicable at all in iran's economy, the policy of stabilization will be implemented, that's what mr. hassan khankhani himself said, that the economy is not a game, that it is not for you to sit there in a think tank. do it when i go and say , sir, how should we determine the rate, all of this policy is fixed according to the opinion. i am also from the uae, like the uae , we use the currency of a thousand tomans. why do we use a thousand tomans for a toman to end up with a dollar. go to the economy, which does not work like this, which is why iran's policymakers, by the way, mr. farzin is right in saying that mr. farzin's policy is going ahead with stabilization policy, and it is wrong. why is it wrong? why is he giving that policy another name? langar says that because the stabilization policy is an implementation model, it becomes an implementation model. this is what the government of mr. raisi , the government of mr. rouhani, the government of mr. ahmadinejad
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, the government of mr. hashemi, the government of mr. khatami, the government of mr. mirhossein mousavi , all of them are implementing the same policy. where is the point of kekte? the point here is that we always want to to answer your question , we could not do this whenever our supply reserve rate was over, like during the hemmati period, and this did not necessarily mean our policy. that whenever oil goes up, iran's exchange rate is strengthened , we actually strengthen the real price of land, whenever that means it causes the price. the official keeps the supply constant . there is a reason. now the reason is either sanctions or
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we have a price reduction. anytime we don't have a supply income , it's for any oil. for whatever reason, our supply income will decrease. we don't have any arguments anymore. as a result, we are not policy makers . oil makes policy for us . oil makes policy for us. this is the end of politics. now, i want to say that in order to move mr. hassan khani forward, i will say, sir: iran is no longer sanctioned. you say that it is the supply side . i want to talk about your words in ten points . i put aside my own arguments . is it only us that is sanctioned? yes, no, isn't russia sanctioned? there is nothing wrong with russia. what happened in russia? what is wrong with these events? russia what happened was that russia was sanctioned before of sanctions in 2015. the supply was brought to them in 2022, there were severe sanctions, which
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in terms of the severity of the sanctions, in many of the sanctions against iran, are stronger than the sanctions that were imposed on iran. you should reduce the severity, the number of sanctions imposed on russia in many fields is much more than iran, two or three times that of iran, for example, if russia is sanctioned a thousand companies. no , we are not talking about the number of companies , we are talking about the number of sanctions in different fields now i'll show this, let's see what happened in russia? what happened in russia. this is that russia acted contrary to iran , russia had a policy, russia controlled its monetary base , russia raised its interest rate, that is , it adopted an active monetary policy. what did we do? what did we do? i think we
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came and fixed the interest rate , we kept the interest rate constant, since it was a deficit. at the same time, the structural budget deficit of 1402, 1100 thousand billion tomans, one third of your budget is a deficit. at that time, we expect that in this economy , what did we do next? we said , "we will prove russia ." hassankhani, give me time so that this discussion is not cut, i have no problem with the time. after a few months in 2022, and what happened is a surprising thing, that is, they
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don't trade their foreign exchange resources like us, they let the sky wide open , by the way, when mr. reading: when you get a shock on the supply side, you have to allow the desired rate why should it fluctuate? why, because of the shock on your supply side , on the side of your oil revenues, if you don't allow the price of land to fluctuate, it will fluctuate, but you also lost your currency reserves, mr. hassan khani. we are not a transition and we don't have the right tools to make policies. this is true and they say that we should do this. in fact, no , we should be policymakers in the strict sense of the word. in the previous part of your order, you said about 42 you also said that there was no stabilization. yes, there was no stabilization in 420. look at 420. it was said that we give 40 to all goods to all people for everything, which
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is certainly wrong for a country whose treasury is empty. at the beginning of july, this matter was actually reduced to 25 items of goods. in the fall, it again became 7 items of goods, about 18 billion dollars in may of the following year. was this true or not ? do you know why it is wrong? i will explain now. if you want to announce a policy, first, the policy should have a time horizon until when you want it do this and it should be stable so that
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the attack and sanctions will not happen again. the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar returned to the same 80. at the time of the sanctions, russia had 4,645 billion dollars in official reserves of land and gold, nearly one-third of russia's gold reserves, and we did not have them. we were under sanctions. the embargo was not secondary, but you are in iran, the embargo is the secondary embargo, not russia, there is no problem , what should be done, there are 14 actions, no, he does not want to act , the most important action is obvious, the problem is in the field of comparing countries before at all let's turn to russia . i invite you to review the literature of foreign exchange intervention in countries. we have a country called hong kong, we have a country called china, we have a country called indonesia, countries like malaysia, these are all the literature on territorial intervention
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, scientific literature, horizontal interventions are possible. it is not a negation. but to say, sir, that intervention in the area of foreign currency exchange is doomed to failure. yes , i agree with you . we do not accept aimless exchange speculation, which actually leads to a decrease in the central bank's reserves . if our criticism is that our government is weak in our governance structure. there is a mechanism design and we are forced to intervene by order. this is a true weakness, i accept it, but to say, sir, everything let's leave this mistake to the market , there is no problem, what is right, this is right, you must design a mechanism that can absorb as much as possible. to shock, to absorb the shock on the supply side , well, what does that mean, what is this mechanism , what is the policy, what to do, the policy, the anchor policy, see
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the policy that occurs in the conditions of the supply shock caused by the sanctions, the horizontal anchor policy, this policy is the right policy, what does it mean? that is, the politician says, mr. people , a country where 80% of the imports of your goods are less elastic you, who experienced the removal of land 420 in the hands of the people who know when you let it go, the food inflation in the month, the inflation of the whole economy in the month of almost 11 , the food inflation, you say something , how much was the month similar to may 1400, and what you said is true in may 1400 in the previous year, the width of 420 was not removed in the same month .
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the economy that you did, your central bank is invalid, not you, i mean the policy makers , what you did is that the central bank is invalid , you have high inflation, the central bank cannot anchor the interest rate to the economy, the nominal rate will anchor your economy. this is the same. the actual and complete dollarization of the economy is that you are the nominal anchor of your economy, instead of the interest rate announced by the central bank like other
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countries, the foreign exchange rate is the anchor of the economy, and then you want to build a theory on this. it is something that is not in your hands, nor your reserves allow you to do that according to your own words . naturally, iran's economy has become a forest for two reasons , one dependence and why not, please allow iran's heavy dependence on the import of goods that help it
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in argentina. what is the percentage of this argentina? the import of aid goods is argentina, the same argentina that you gave as an example. i had written down that i should give a detailed explanation. last year, argentina experienced anchoring the interest rate. this is the same advice as you said . the inflation rate was 70. what happened, he jumped again, this is argentina, this comparison, if you can show it, this is a comparison of argentina, turkey and brazil, countries that are all three similar in terms of the fact that all three are considered new economies. show but this graph shows that you can see the red of argentina, still the interest rate of the real interest rate in argentina, despite all the reductions that
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give despite all the increases. it is much more than brazil and turkey, while what this shows is that the peso should be devalued even now , that is, the rate that was set is wrong, it is obvious that the unofficial rate will jump again. who has folded, this is what the body has done. look at what china did in 1994, when it came to the land price , it jumped the official and stopped on its policy, even though in the same thing happened in china in the beginning, but china practiced its policy and brought the rate with the theories that i presented, that is , i should present the rate with the pp theory and look at the monetary theory
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. just now, i said, mr. hassan , if we the fundamental variables, whether with pp, with rates, or with the monetary model, if you have another model, it's fine, there's no problem , look for iran. the same model shows that for iran , the real price of the nominal land price, i.e. the dollar rate, is around 50 thousand tomans. right now , friends are saying 12 thousand tomans, no, sir, 12 thousand tomans . let me see, there are 27 oil countries, only iran. no, i am telling you now, this is not only iran, there are 27 oil countries, you see, the monetary model and the pp model also work for 27 oil countries , it is not only for iran, we cannot say, sir
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, that we are different in everything, we are not. you should read this . yes, give me a chance to talk about the exchange relationship. i will be grateful. well, mr. al-husseini, with your advice, we should follow your order. you said that we should devalue the rial, my people. here is the recommendation to raise the land rate three times. take this matter up, let it go up to see that this is the result of the work of your policies, it is very simple
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the time is 1:00 am tehran time and dear viewers, welcome to this news section. the head of the radio communications regulatory organization said: communication companies have been obliged to increase the internet tariff by 34 percent. increase the number of fifth generation internet centers and the fourth generation internet coverage throughout the country. according to mr. lajavardi , the possible violations of these communication companies will be dealt with.
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