there was pressure on the team, and this is an obvious thing , this must be solved by our two teams, but we reached the station in japan , in the next stage, japan, well, everyone knows that it is a really strong team, most of their players play in the best european teams, but we certainly don't think about these things. we will try to have our best performance and we will beat japan. god willing, now we have to wait until saturday for the match. bahman 20th of rajab and february 1st in tehran , sunset will be at 173 minutes, maghrib call to prayer will be at 175 minutes , and shari midnight will be at 23:35 minutes.

thank you for your company, i invite you dear compatriots in the future , be a special viewer of the election program with the performance of my colleague, mr. bozornasab. please please in the name of god, thank you very much, mr. zorian. greetings and respect to all the special viewers of the higher election program. we want to talk about the determination of the interest rate in today's debate and i invite you to attend, considering that our time on channel 1 is limited and running out , i invite all viewers if they are interested in a debate on this matter, watch us on the channel. thank you for watching the news. the importance of elections in electing a strong parliament is in the hands of the people, coach irani sharaf, iran is playing with telegrams across the country, why are you setting prices this month? your question is an interesting question. we don't agree

that higher than any or higher today, wherever we are, tomorrow we are higher , you are a special companion of the higher program. the leader of the revolution, in recent meetings , called the real competition one of the important pillars of the election, which means that there is a field for the presence of different political and economic viewpoints. there should be an open culture so that everyone with their own different points of view can form a real competition in the big election race, one of the issues that have different points of view and experts disagree they are of the opinion that the issue of setting the bank interest rate is clear , if we want to have a detailed review of the differences together to get to our debate, the range of opponents of the current situation say that the interest rate should

increase according to inflation, that is, for example, if we now have an inflation of about 43 and our interest rate is about 23. this is the gap that economic experts call our real interest rate, which is about 20% negative. they say that this gap must be filled and we can collect liquidity from the market . they have and defend the current situation almost they say that if we do this, the parallel markets will be damaged. do you believe in which of the experts and in which range of their opinions?

in the name of allah, the most merciful, the most merciful, greetings to the people of iran, at your service , my brother, mr. al-hassanini, i do not agree with the fact that we should raise interest rates in line with inflation, there are a number of reasons, general and framework reasons, a number of reasons, specific reasons for iran's economy, see the policy of raising interest rates profit is basically a short policy in the economy. duration is a policy that is actually undertaken in the face of temporary inflationary events if we accept that based on the conventional theory economically, inflation is a product of excessive demand from national production, which can be seen in the average inflation of iran's economy, that is, the average inflation in our economy, after all, we have had inflation for 50 years, an average inflation of 20%. this can

be attributed to the fact that the demand from the national production is too much. the fundamental and long-term ways to control this inflation are reform policies, which are policies such as controlling the growth of liquidity and the budget, etc., and this is the control of the budget deficit, but we are in a situation right now. that we have twice the average inflation and our above-average inflation is inflation in my opinion we can no longer say that it is due to demand-side factors. i disagree with the fact that it is not demand-side factors . it can put pressure on the price of assets. this increase in the price of assets is not very dependent on demand, that is, it is enough to create pessimism. you sometimes follow the news. it says that the price has gone up without customers, the market is without customers, cars, recently, for example,

housing, for example. it goes up, there is no transaction at all , but it goes up, the price is high, it overflows the goods and services, it turns into an inflation. from the top you look at, you see power. shopping, for example, people have a lot of inflation. they are delusional with the prosperity that people are attacking and buying . you don't see something like this at least sometimes, which means that this is a special type of inflation. i believe that those policies on the demand side are justified in their own framework to control inflation. we are doing the same work that we are doing now, that is, controlling the growth of cash flow under inflation, controlling our salary under inflation, controlling the budget under inflation, we are now acting conservatively , john.

mentioning the reasons for inflation in iran first, saying that it is normal in the mainstream of our economy we say that, sir, it is money that causes inflation , and we and the difference or mab in exchange for the growth of money in proportion to the growth of gdp is an extra money , which naturally causes inflation in the economy. now he is a believer. it is not that it is causing inflation in iran's economy, or later i know that they do not believe that it is not, they think that this effect is less compared to expectations, yes , high inflation, in my opinion , the explanation is very different from our average inflation, correct. next,

they believe that our average inflation is caused by factors money, but our high inflations are caused by this element of pessimism or uncertainty that has arisen in the economy , this is my explanation, if i want to criticize it , it is iran, that after all, this pessimism factor is a part of it, a major part of it is pessimism and politics. i reject this. i don't think that expectations play an important role in iran's economy , it plays an important role everywhere in the world, because i actually have the capital market, the capital market means the flow of capital between countries . iran's economy should return he should return his money to invest in iran or not or take his capital out of iran. this pessimism is a game. one forgiveness is definitely political, but one forgiveness is definitely economic, that is, it is caused by the fact that they

know that the politician in iran is not doing the right thing , the monetary policy maker is politics. the financial transition of the horizontal policy maker, these do not work properly, as a result, it is natural that this will definitely affect iran's capital account with the element of expectations , it will affect the entire iranian money market, it will make practically no one want to keep rial, see when the policy maker is like this it acts as one of the cases of politics the policy maker is acting wrong, by the way, this is the interest rate when the policy maker acts in such a way that your real interest rate is minus 10 or minus 15 percent, depending on how much you know the expected inflation now. is it obvious that you should not keep rials? it is known that rials in the commodity market means that a person

should convert his money into an asset instead of an asset. we have a money market, an asset market, a commodity market, and so on. as long as it is not abroad , one of these assets is foreign assets, of course , it means that the assets can be a series of housing, cars, etc. capital country buying a house abroad and these things, when the real interest rate is so negative, you are humiliating the rial. no one in this economy can afford to keep rial . it is not the fault of the rial. now i came back and said that if you don't give antibiotics to a child when he has a fever, you are destroying the child , and you say that it is not the fault of the antibiotic, of course , it is not the fault of the antibiotic, it is the fault

, but you have a real interest rate reduction or a negative interest rate. long-term face, no , you do not mean, you have a policy maker, yes, yes you will cause the desire to save in this economy , savings in rials in this economy will decrease drastically and these effects. it has been a long time that we have a forgiveness right now . we have done this for the past few decades . now we are reaping its fruits . not to mention , keynesian in economics, even to say that those who believe in modern monetary theories do not recommend any real interest rates for the long term, negative real interest rates for the short term, they do not recommend at all. they don't recommend any of them for the long term . in the economy, the real interest rate

should be zero or positive. now if it is positive, it should be half percent or one percent. well, between zero and positive, there is a fight between whether the real interest rate is negative or not, so we don't have a fight, mr. dear friends, first of all, let me put something in parentheses. when we say that the interest rates in iran are, for example, so-and-so percentages , where do we get this from and which rate do we have? we see what we have now in the capital market. in these few months, if you want to finance from the capital market, we are the way. we went to 36, and now last year it was, for example, 31, now it is 36. why is it normal , because we apply the balance sheet control policy , we created a credit crisis, and there is a shortage of money , which is the quota and the government and quasi-government related to the government. the bank and the neck are thick and they are taking it, it doesn't reach the others

, it doesn't show, but i'm saying that we don't see anything happening , our cash flow has reached 25 now, so what's the effect, for example, the inflation

is around 40 may, see if this didn't happen, the control of the credit card wouldn't have happened, iran's inflation this is where the ratio of quasi-money to money means there is no problem, not inflation. how much was the inflation? it is now around 40 years ago . no, but if the balance sheet was not controlled, iran's inflation would definitely be above 50%, but when will the inflation be above 50%? for various reasons, we didn't control the balance before, when did our inflation reach 50%? during trump's time in 1997, why did the oil income decrease ? in 1997, in 1997, the foreign exchange reserves that you had in 1993 to 1996, you only had so much foreign exchange reserves in 1996 , you were able to reach 18 billion dollars. if you pour into the economy, it is obvious that there will be no inflation, then i am saying that the one whose

document was lost at all is already 2017, we tried. it was very big until 96. we came to 97 and 98 and we were left empty. we had more than 30 billion dollars in foreign exchange income, which means that the country's foreign exchange income was good, the conditions were there for the market maker to be able to anchor the economy with the land price, now the market maker

is taking the possibility of anchoring, of course, it is problematic, that is , we have to think about it, but those who are not related the money they get never reaches them at the rate of 23 so why should it be 23, the question is exactly the same, if it comes to those who drive this, why should it be 23 wrong? i accept this, but our discussion is, see, now you are saying that sir

has made 23 a problem. i say that 23 is not current at all. now, how many should be 23 to be correct ? now this is it. i believe that if we want to raise the interest rates, we should only raise the deposit rate and we should not touch this. i will explain the reasons why the interest rate is bad because i want to explain this now, look at the economy it's not an absolute recommendation that interest rates should rise in line with inflation. obviously, i 'm talking about the impact rate here because you have something called uncertainty in the economy . reassurance means we don't know how much inflation will be next year . in 2012, our monthly inflation reached 40. two years later, it was 12.12 because the political perspective only changed . it was a bit high, of course, but this

situation can finally happen. let's not forget that our inflation is 40 times twice our average. we have a concept in your summary , while it is possible that an event like the one in 2014 will bring inflation to such a low level, see if it doesn't, see if the interest rate goes up so easily, but it doesn't go down so easily, see the story, we have experienced this before. we have experienced in the past decade that the prices go up. every producer of any particular product may have a very different inflation rate . inflation is an average. it may be 20%. it may be 50-70%. as a producer, i don't know in which range i fall, which means that this is a no-go for me. it is certain and

you know that reasonable behavior in the economy is risk-averse they say that wise people are risk averse. it means that when i don't know if i will be 20% or 30% or 50 %, i will not accept and tolerate the average. i will accept and tolerate the below average. uncertainty causes that the reasonable interest rate of the facility is not even equal to the inflation rate. you have to excuse me. why should i give my money to my deposit bank when there is confidence in the economy? what effect does it have? uncertainty in the economy affects the savings rate that i, the depositor, want to see savings should i do or consume, there is a trade- off between savings and consumption. the person who wants to invest, make a deposit, why should i come and make a deposit? you want to give me 20% under my tour because you believe that

the economy will return to our average rates. look, if we go to the economy, we will analyze the case and see if the deposit is good. the transition of the savings market and the investment market and the divorce of these two, from which the interest rate fall comes out , if we want to be an economic mechanism. what is his motivation and desire to put his money in the bank at these rates? of course, it is going to sell, it is going to buy, it is going to invade the market, finally , you have to answer a key question, no matter how much we say, sir, ok , we will not increase inflation as much as inflation, because inflation in iran fluctuates a lot , it goes up and down a lot. much. inflation fluctuates because it fluctuates a lot and there is uncertainty there. we consider the average of 20 and 50 years. first of all, i tell you

to take the average of 10 years. take salo, you are coming , 27-30%, and more important than that, you are more important than that take an average of 5 years. 5 years did not pass . your studio exploded. look, after all, this is not really a valid argument that we take the 50-year average because we have uncertainty, take it, no , take the average of 5 years and 10 years, see something, see the year, wait a minute , i agree, i agree, i want to reach it, see if i i want to come to your forum now and tell you, sir, in this way of thinking, is 97 comparable to 93 and 4

? is it comparable after exiting jcpoa to before exiting jcpoa? yes, it is comparable. the cycle of extinction when you want to give an example, sir , you had inflation below 20% for 4 years, yes, those 4 years are the same year . there is nothing else that compares 93 to 96 to the current situation. you know, so as long as i want to talk about your mindset, i will say that as long as you have the risk of the jcpoa, the risk of sanctions and the lack of jcpoa, you should average the same period and talk about it. it is the country that

you should calculate now, because uncertainty is not an element , it is not justified to say the average of that period where are you sure? it comes from the people's mind , it comes from the other side, the other side thinks that the situation will get worse , as a result, it goes from the outside , it draws a line from the outside . inaction says, sir, i want to keep my savings, i don't want to keep my savings in rials, i don't want to save at all , i want to go and buy assets

. well, look, the bottom line is that we have to care, we have to care that no, we are going to move forward like this, that's all. this is how you make the markets hot, the whole economy is hot, rial is humiliated, nobody is present you are ready now, accept it, someone else is doing it, we don't show the correct reaction , is it happening in my tool or not? accept , i understand this, i understand this , but it doesn't happen in the tool, but i have to use it when i have this tool , there is no problem 30 he can make the percentage of it cheap , he can consume it, he can consume it, it can consume 30 , it is not in his bottles, but it is important, lucretius, a philosopher, says, be small, but be important, sir. a

report prepared by my colleagues in the bank bem group, a review of the pros and cons of it let's see together, let's go back and continue the conversation. vahid shaghaghi shahri, economic expert. firstly, with the increase in the interest rate, the growth of liquidity will increase with a time interval. the interest rate of the capital market will fail. mohammad khoshchareh , a member of the faculty of economics, university of tehran. an increase in interest rates exacerbates inflation because it increases production costs. the interest rate of facilities that are considered for production increases with the increase of the interest rate, which has the effects of inflation brings along yasser jabraeili, economic expert. under the pretext of curbing inflation.

if we increase the bank interest, the cost of financing for the producer will increase, this will lead to inflation and reduce the purchasing power of the people, and stagnation will occur . kamran nazri, an economic expert , inflationary expectations have increased and people are trying not to have too many assets in the bank, and as a result, long-term deposits have turned into short-term deposits and money, and this has created a problem for banks. banks with the peak demand of depositors to withdraw balance from long-term deposits faced, and this causes the banks to face liquidity problems, and in such a situation, an increase in the interest rate is inevitable, both in the banking market and in the banks. mohammad reza jamshidi, secretary of the center of banks and private credit institutions, the rate of 18% in these inflationary conditions is not only unreasonable, but also unprofitable. banks 18 interest on deposit.

and must give 80% of these deposits at the rate of 18%. therefore, by taking into account the bank fees with a simple calculation, the usual rates of banks are obtained from this place. banks are not charities and should think about the cost, economy and efficiency of the collection be yourself the rational interest rate should be 3% higher than the inflation rate. majid shakri, economic expert. the increase in interest rates on bank deposits is good news for the banking industry, which causes a lot of money to enter this industry. therefore, increasing deposit interest can be effective in eliminating banks' imbalances. well, we saw the report together, mr. al-hussaini , let's have a one-minute summary to say yes , we have arrived at the rate, see the rate about

your rate. it is now, it will definitely not reach the real producer, mr. drodian is right, the real producer has 36 to 40 financing, we have experience too. he also has experience. the rest of the people who are watching know that seeing the experience of someone who is a producer cannot get it at a rate of 23% . why are we doing this? look at the banks. what are we doing ? we are bankrupting the bank with a rate of 23%. we will bankrupt the banking system , if the banking system goes bankrupt, it is not like a normal smell, like all the people, they have to give their money to a bush. you break the resources you have on this side, you give them to those who are in the middle of the relationship they are in the middle of the rent, they don't reach the real producer, i will give you a preferential deposit rate with the real rate.

if you agree, mr. drodian, that the real rate that can be secured now, which is 36 , which they themselves said is not reasonable because of the 23% rate, now they are saying that we do not accept the 23% rate, you yourself accept 36 , so it is 36 now. look at the interest rate. i say the interest rate, the interest rate should be equal to the expected inflation rate . that means the interest rate, the real interest rate should be negative in the economy.