it is february, noon azan in tehran is at 128 minutes and maghrib azan is at 17.51 ​​minutes. thank you for your companion. good day and god bless you. the importance of elections in electing a strong parliament is the key, it is in the hands of the people, iranian coach sharaf iran has a telegram playing with the whole country, why in these 6 months of pricing, your question is an interesting question , you are the manager, we do not

agree. to be better tomorrow, you are the special companion of the higher program, the leader of the revolution in the recent meetings. they call the real competition one of the important pillars of the election this means that the field should be open for the presence of different political, economic and cultural viewpoints so that everyone with these different viewpoints can form a real competition in the big election contest. one of the topics on which there are different views and experts have different opinions is the issue of interest rate determination. obviously, if we want to have a detailed review of the differences together to get to our views, it is the range of opponents of the current situation.

they say that the interest rate should increase according to inflation , that is, for example, if we have inflation now , we have 43 and our interest rate is about 23. which the economic experts of the people of the economy tell him that our real interest rate, which is now around 20%, for example , is negative, they say that this gap must be filled and we can collect liquidity from the market. they say that if we do this , the parallel markets will be damaged, while we may see more recession. this is the subject of our debate today. please stay with us until the end. here in our studio, mr. drodian , an economic expert, and mr. al-husseini, another economic expert, are present in the program. greetings to both of them. guest of the program, i would like to start with mr. drodian, and what do you think, mr. drodian, which of the experts and their opinions are close to which spectrum?

in the name of allah, the most merciful, the most merciful, greetings to the people of iran, at your service , my brother, mr. al-hassanini, i do not agree with the fact that we should raise interest rates in line with inflation, there are a number of reasons, general and framework reasons, a number of reasons, specific reasons for iran's economy , see the policy of raising interest rates profit is basically a short-term policy in the economy. it is a policy that is actually ahead in the face of temporary inflationary events it can be taken if we accept that according to the conventional economic theory, product inflation is an excessive demand for national production, which can also be considered valid for the average inflation of the iranian economy, that is , the average inflation in our economy, after all, we have had 50 years of inflation, an average inflation of 20 this %

can be attributed to the fact that the demand from the national production is too much. the fundamental and long-term ways to control this inflation are conservative policies, which are policies such as controlling the growth of liquidity and the budget, etc. we are in a situation where we have twice the average inflation and our above-average inflation, in my opinion , is inflation that we can no longer say is due to demand-side factors. i disagree that it is not demand-side factors. this is completely a pessimism and a negative economic perspective that dominates the country's property prices. this increase in the price of assets is not dependent on demand , that is, it is enough to create pessimism. you sometimes follow the news. it says that the price has gone up without customers. the market has no customers and cars recently.

there is no deal, but the price is going up it overflows on goods and services and turns into a high inflation from which you can see purchasing power or, for example, my people have a lot of illusion of inflation with prosperity that people are attacking and buying . you don't see something like this at least sometimes. that is, this is a special type of inflation. i believe that those policies on the demand side are justified within their own framework to control inflation . we are doing the same work we are doing now, that is, controlling the growth of liquidity under inflation, controlling our salaries under inflation, controlling the budget under inflation. we are acting conservatively now, there is no room for it again. one let's put the new anqbaz again, it means that it is really high to raise the interest rate

, mr. al-husseini, what do you think, do you believe that it is competitive or not, based on the current situation? and i hope that they have a good day . mentioning some reasons for inflation in iran. first of all, it is normal . in the mainstream economy, we say that, sir, it is the money shortage that causes inflation, and we and the difference between money growth and gdp growth. internally, an extra money, which naturally causes inflation in the economy, well, this flow is the slave of economics, it is true, now they believe that it is not. which is causing inflation in iran's economy, or later i know, they don't believe that it is not, they think that this effect is less compared to expectations, yes , high inflation, in my opinion, the explanation is very different from our average inflation, right, then it means they believe

that our average inflation is caused by monetary factors, but our high inflations are caused by this element of pessimism or uncertainty that arose in the economy. explanation if i want to object to it, it is iran that after all, this pessimism factor is a part of it, a major part of it is pessimism and politics. i do not deny that expectations play an important role in iran's economy , it plays an important role everywhere in the world, due to the fact that the market capital on the capital market means the flow of capital between countries , i mean the international economy, practically the expectations that it creates. the bottom line is that the supply side should return its value in the language of iran's economy, return its money to invest in iran or not, or take its capital out of iran, the bottom line is pessimism. forgiveness is definitely political, but a forgiveness is definitely economic, that is, it is caused by the fact that they know that

the policy maker in iran is not acting correctly , the monetary policy maker, the financial policy maker, the transverse policy maker, these are not acting correctly. iran's capital account affects the entire iranian money market and makes practically no one want to hold rials . look, when a politician acts like this , one of the things that a politician does wrong is the same interest rate when the policymaker acts in such a way that the real interest rate you are minus 10 or minus 15 percent. now, depending on how much we know the expected inflation now, and... the real interest rate for the past 50 years, in the 40 years , the real interest rate has been negative. it is clear that you should not keep rial . it is known that rial against the commodity market means

we have a money market, we have an asset market, and we have a commodity market. out of these three , one of these assets is foreign assets , of course. assets can be a series of housing, cars, etc abroad and investing abroad and buying a house and these things, when the interest rate is so negative, the real interest rate is so negative, you are humiliating the rial , no one in this economy can save rial . you can say that sir, now i am back and i said that you are destroying the child by not giving antibiotics when he has a fever, you say that it is not the fault of the antibiotic , of course it is not the fault of the antibiotic, it is the fault of an infection in the body, but the interest rate increase in this economy is a part of that antibiotic that must be given to this

baby, it's not an appetite suppressant, it's a painkiller, only an antibiotic attacks, it destroys the pathogen, the interest rate doesn't attack the pathogen , it just tells the party, don't eat it now, i'll give you more, what does it mean next year, you have more money , this is the only painkiller we have we are fattening up the money so that i can attack tomorrow, what do we want to do tomorrow, we have to say again tomorrow, sir, now i will give you 40 , now shake your head, it means that i accept the principle of one part

of it. the interest rate or with the negative interest rate , you have the real interest rate in the long term, not you, your assumption i don't mean, you politicians are making people want to save in this economy. savings in rials in this economy has decreased drastically and this has long-term effects . if we continue this work , or if we don't go to the point where the real interest rate in iran is zero, what we are talking about is the economy, not even keynesian in the economy. for the long term , negative real interest for the short term. highly recommended they do not recommend at all, none of them recommend for the long term

, there is definitely a fight over this in the economy , whether the real interest rate is zero or positive. we don't have it, mr. drodian . first of all, let me put something in parentheses . when we say that the interest rates in iran are, for example, so-and-so percentages , where do we get this from, what rates are we talking about? if you want to finance from the capital market this means that we went the right way, the price of shoes is 36%, and now last year it was 311%, now it is 36%, why is it normal because we apply the balance sheet control policy , we created a credit limit, and there are also small amounts of money, that is the quota, the government and the quasi-government. it is related to the government, related to the bank and the neck, and these go to the others , the rates are high. looking at our economy in the last year, i don't say that this was the policy of the government, but

the side effect of its policy was that it went up. in any case , this did not happen. no, in any case, if we had implemented zero foreign exchange control like this, it would not have happened like this. it didn't go up then, our inflation went up, after all, not at all. before, we didn't have balance control. how much was our inflation in 2019? how much was it in 2018? no, none of them were 50. 42. it doesn't make any difference. our inflation is now 1401 1402 with balance sheet control. . he didn't do it before , it didn't make any significant difference. for example, we don't see that the inflation is still above 40. at that time , the inflation was 39. well, 12 months is 43 , and it's already 12 months. compare in advance , the 12-month inflation is the average inflation as a result it is the 12th year of 1998 , which i am saying is the 12th month of the 9th year, and it does not show this change

. if the balance sheet was not controlled , iran's inflation must be above 50. when did we have inflation above 50 ? when did our inflation reach 50? during trump's time in 1997, what happened to the low oil income ? the inflation in 9/9/97. the foreign exchange reserves you had in 1993 to 2016. you only had so much foreign exchange reserves in 2016. you were able to pour 18 billion dollars into the economy. the one whose spring

came off in 2017, we tried so hard it was injected at that time until 2016, the enlarged numbers were too big . we came to 1997 and 2018. our left was empty . we have more than 30 billion dollars in revenue. we had , that is, the foreign currency income of the country was good, the conditions for the market maker to be able to anchor the economy with the price of land existed, now the market maker has the possibility of anchoring with the rate. i mean, you

are comfortable talking about interest rates with the monetary model. you have a margin, look, we can't go and get the lowest rates, let's say this is the interest rate in iran, no, it's a rate, we have a margin, there is a significant difference, now fixed income funds have 29% on your money, actually profit now they are going to make a bank deposit, which means they will go to a bank deposit, then they will study again , that is, you can see the numbers, so our rates are 23, of course , the official rate is 23, but they get 23 better than us. it is also a problem, which means we have to think about it , but those who are not related will never get the money they get at the 23 rate. why should it be 23, that's exactly the question, if it comes to those who read this, why should it be 23? it's wrong, i accept it, but our discussion is, see, now you are saying that sir

, 23 has made a problem, i say that 23 is not current at all. now, how much should it be 23 to be correct ? in my opinion, this is now. i believe that if we want to raise the interest rates , we should only raise the deposit rate and we should not touch this. i will explain the reasons for the interest rate. because of how many rates you see, i now want to explain this, see in the economy this is not an absolute recommendation that interest rates should rise in line with inflation. here, obviously, i am talking about the education rate, because in the economy you have something called uncertainty , uncertainty, that is, we do not know how much inflation will be next year. it reached 40 per month , 2 years later, our inflation was 12 in 2012. why did nothing happen because the political perspective only changed , that is, the issues related to liquidity and such and such, now the rates were a bit high , of course, but this situation can finally happen.

look, don't forget that our 40 inflation is double our average, we have a concept in your abbreviation , maine river. returning to the average means that we still believe that our inflation wants to be stable at 40. i didn't believe it. we may see something like this. this is uncertainty. it means that someone wants to go below 40, while it is possible that something like that happened last year. 94 will bring inflation so low for one period, see if it doesn't, see if the interest rate goes up so easily, but it doesn't come down easily, see the story, we have experienced this before, we experienced it in the 90s, the rates are going up, but just think about inflation. inflation 40 43 inflation it doesn't go down easily. another point is the uncertainty. it's not the average of each manufacturer of any particular product . the inflation rate may be far from this. the inflation is an average. it may be 20 percent. it may be 50 or 70. i am a producer. i don't know which range i fall in. that's it for me. uncertainty

and you know that reasonable behavior in economics is risk aversion . they say that wise people are risk averse. it means that when i don't know, i don't accept the average . i don't tolerate it . i accept and tolerate the below average. my average is less, so there is uncertainty this causes that the reasonable interest rate of the facility is not even the same as the inflation rate . as a depositor , i want to see if i should save or spend . there is a trade-off between my consumption savings and the one who wants to invest. why should i come and make a deposit? you want to give me 20% below inflation because you believe that the economy is

we will return the average rates. look, if we go to the economy, we will analyze the case and see if mr. sapur is the depositor of the savings market and the investment market. and the divorce of these two, from which the drop in interest rates comes out. if we want to talk about his economic mechanism , what is his motivation, what is his desire to put his money in the bank at these rates ? after all, you have to answer one key question no matter how much we say, sir. ok, we don't increase inflation as much as inflation because inflation in iran fluctuates a lot , it goes up and down a lot and fluctuates a lot. because inflation fluctuates a lot and the last element of our portfolio is the average of 20-50 years. i tell you to take the average of 10 years, why take 50 years, take the average of 10 years, then

they say, at that time , you will come to 278%, lower than 10%, take the average of 10 years , you will come to 278 , 30%. in my opinion, is 97 comparable to 93 and 4 ? is it comparable after exiting the jcpoa to before exiting the jcpoa? yes, it is comparable . when you want to give an example, you say, sir , you had inflation under 20% for 4 years, yes, those 4 years are 4 years the jcpoa is nothing else, what else, 93 to 96, you know that 93 to 96 is comparable to the current situation, so as long as i want to talk in your mind, i will say that as long as you have the risk of jcpoa, the risk of sanctions and the lack of jcpoa, you should. take the average of the same period, talk about the same

, if with this way of thinking, it is really not a joke, the life of the people of the country is the future of the country, to say, sir , take the average before my revolution, or take the average before the revolution , it is not really justified to take the average. and at all, the fluctuations of inflation are very severe, especially in the last 10 years, by the way, but i want to, because it is not comparable, it is not justified to say that you should calculate the average of that period now, because where does uncertainty come from, the element of uncertainty comes from people's minds, the other party thinks that the situation will get worse, as a result, it goes out, out, out of nowhere. he takes his mind and his mind is destroyed. the investor or the mind of the investor says, "sir, i don't want to keep my savings in rials, i want to keep dollars, i don't want to save, i want to go and buy assets. well, you see

, the bottom line is that we have to care, we have to care about these motivations." you this in iran's economy, we have completely abandoned incentives, sir, it doesn't matter what the saver thinks, the important thing is that i say uncertainty in the economy, take a 10-year average, take a 10-year average. the experience of someone who is a producer can't get it at a rate of 23%. why are we doing this? look at the banks . what are we doing? we have banks at a rate of 23% . . it's not like all the people, they have to pay his money, once he goes bankrupt, his shareholders have to pay the bank that went bankrupt, all the people have to do it. they will bail it out, now they will save it, and you

will bankrupt your banking system , you will give the resources to those who have connections in the middle , they have rents in the middle , it will not reach the real producer, it will not reach the real producer, this is like a preferential rate you have a preferred deposit rate. if it is accepted by drudian that the real rate that can be secured now is 36, which they themselves said , as a result of the 23% rate , it is not reasonable, now they say that we do not accept the rate of 23, you yourself accept 36, so you say 36 is the rate now. look at interest, i say interest rate the interest rate must be equal to the expected inflation rate , how much does that mean the real interest rate must be negative in the economy

? i am making losses every year, that is, every year , before these events, i believe it was around 30%, but now your expected inflation rate is going to be over 40, 50, over 40 percent, so that means the interest rate, i have to tell you about other countries. i have brought 50 countries here for you to see. because you are not exaggerating my points, let me tell you the headline first. let me say this first . the center has a conflict of interest because it is both a bank interest rate reporter and a manager. that's why there is always a tour that reports low rates to say that the rates are low because

the rates are high, finally protest. my motivation is to say that high interest rates lead more banks to bankruptcy than low interest rates. this is our experience of the 90s. high real interest rates will push the banking system towards nine. i say that the real interest rate should be zero if at all. right now, the real interest rate is high, no , see the real interest rate, the real interest rate will go up until it becomes zero, there is no problem, no , it's not like this, see, i told you, you are an idiot. uncertainty is not like that. look, you said that now, should you buy something that is indexed to the entire price index, which we don't have at all , there is something like that, so it is risky. see, if you buy any product, you have a risk of 40% inflation. you have uncertainty. it's going up more

, no sir, it's going up more. look, assets are also risky. in a short period of time, there is risk. now, you look at the last year, for example, how was housing . in the short term, it has no risk. in the long term, it has no risk. it's not a tool at all. who said that interest rate is a long-term inflation control tool? if the real interest rate is negative , the real interest rate will cause inflation in the long term due to the negative real interest. let me tell you this . look, we are saying that if there is no money, for example , if the rate is low, people will not save . people will not save or not save. whether you and i decide now to save in the bank or to spend will not leave any change in the resources in the hands of the banking network, nothing will happen, but i can even argue in favor of the banking network in terms of financing. look , you have to pay the interest, the interest of 400, it's just a name it doesn't have to come from somewhere, who should give this or the government should give, i'm telling you, one of the experiences of the literature of high inflation economies is with

debtor governments. that high interest rates have been someone's engine, that is, when it comes to raise interest rates to control inflation, the government is in debt , the debt rates of the government also go up, then you see a deficit, which means that in the long term, it has a short-term anti-inflationary effect , but in the long term again, the period has the effect of inflation , which in iran becomes the usable deposits of the banking network. now, our government debt is not that high , although it is not a small number, but the interest deposits acceptance rate of our banking network is 80. it is a special thing in the world . it has recently decreased from 80 to 90 a few years ago . that an engine of expansion , i.e. high interest rates on deposits, becomes a force for expansion, so that even the author of the book high inflation about capital outflows and discussion, etc., says that, sir, the persuasive interest rate for people who do not withdraw capital may be so much. it's up to you to say that it's better to accept capital outflow, that is, not to put your economy on the side effects of interest rates, which will actually put a lot of pressure on the economy and take the economy to

on the collection side, yes, if we had inflation in iran, especially in iran, everywhere in the world , high inflation is associated with an atmosphere of pessimism about the economic performance, the real part of its performance will be disrupted, you cannot say that because we have inflation with inflation 40, so they expect that income. look, who said that the bank depositor should not lose, the bank depositor, except for the real wages now , the wages of the labor force is just me and you compared to a few years ago, hasn't our purchasing power decreased, why has our wages increased less than the tour, when did he come again, sir? this is the situation of our problem to say

, sir, we are right. we have to do something, you say, sir how much capacity does the economy have? now , i don't want to get into this discussion with you, but if you say, sir , that the purchasing power of power workers has gone down in our country , the next year, inflation will be 20-40, so what does it mean that the purchasing power has gone down? well, tell me, our bank account is like this. why is the blood of a bank deposit more colorful? you know, according to the words of keen, depositors are "uncharacteristic investors" for the same reason as i said, depositing or not depositing does not make any change in the resources of the banking network . if the government does not set the minimum wage , there will be no minimum wage, it is your real hand iran will fall more or rise more, if you don't have at least a hand, it depends on the quality of the workforce , it depends on the other workforce, what is the average now? you have a company that

they are looking to see