[000:00:00;00] we will present the economic indicators with the presence of experts for the 14th government of the government of mr. bezikian. if you are not interested , stay with us until the end of this discussion. follow the economic desk on khabar , please. it will be presented to the parliament, where we can know exactly which of the ministers are on the proposal of mr. medzikian, and they are going to receive a vote of confidence. so far, we know that mr. tayeb niam is the high adviser of the president, mr. pomohammadi, the head of the budget planning organization , and i will tell you about the economic appointments. program organization there has been a look at the same excuse that the cabinet list is going to go to the parliament tomorrow, we took a look at

the statistics and economic indicators in the government. 10th, and we want to give solutions during the program so that these indicators, those that are not favorable indicators, will improve, and if they are good indicators , let's review the statistics together . the first statistic that we have prepared for you is the gdp growth statistic you can see the statistics from 1997 to 1402, 97, 98, 99, and 1400. the ones that show red production growth means gross production. without much oil and those with domestic oil are at the base price of my oil in 1997 and 1998. you can see that oil is negative, negative 29, negative three. this trend has been around since 140, of course, 99 is also in it. you can see that we had a steady growth both without oil and in with nafto at the base price of 4,4,4,4 and a half, now that this is continuing, the same thing happened without nafto, which means

continuous growth. thank you for your continued presence . please let's see the next picture together. one of the statistics that is very important regarding the economic indicators that can be talked about in my government is the unemployment rate. if we want to feel the change of the government here , almost since 1400, you should consider that this trend has been decreasing since 1997, but it was 12. now that the government is almost ready to deliver to you , 1403 8, which is the lowest unemployment rate in the years at the end of 1402, this number has reached 88, this is 12 % to 8%, maybe in terms of a unit, for example , 4 is not much to their taste, but the big number in the field of unemployment rate is the most important thing is that it has become a single digit , the next picture and please see the gini coefficient together we have that, well, you all know that it is a statistic that is considered for equality index that is the lowest number of zarib in recent years

, you can see that the trend was a decrease from 97, but 9. this number has decreased, the next picture, and please let's see together , in the area of ​​liquidity, one of the most important indicators and one of the most important challenges, maybe we can say that it was the 13th government, why is it important, when we have liquidity, we can see its growth trend until the year 1400 . it has reached 428%, a statistic, and in its hidden layer , we can see inflation from this, which means that when we are placed here, our cash will grow. we have an expectation that the inflation will have a strange and remarkable growth corresponding to this from 1400 to 143 you can see that with the target setting that the central bank clearly did and with the balance sheet control policies and these things that we talked about a lot at the economy table , we reached the necessary targets. this was the liquidity statistics that i explained to you about inflation. please

see the next picture together. you can see the investment status . you may have a question about whether the investment has been made so far. i don't know if it has been done or not . we will talk about it more precisely in the sense that this has been approved, the contract has been signed if it is absorbed in the next three or four years, let's see the next picture of rolf, let's see together the liquidity inflation rate that i explained to you and its effect on inflation. you can see in april 1402, of course, we had a peak before that, as you can see, since 1400 , its growth was almost 43, which we saw together with inflation, this number was stable on april 14, we had a growth in inflation point by point, this number decreased. i'm here for your presence. if i'm not mistaken, it was when we had the width of 400 , it reached 319 in khordad 1400. you may

have this question that if it reaches 50%. why not yet we do not feel that the price situation is very favorable, we must say that the rate of price increase has decreased, which means that we still have inflation as high as 31 and the inflation is a large number . please see the next picture together. inflation is also consumer inflation and producer inflation is also a very important indicator that we are now going through. here we have the ratio of tax revenue to the budget resources, which you can see has decreased and the amount of government tax revenue is an important number. which has reached a record of over 50%, which means that the government's expenses have decreased more as you can see, the end of 1402 has reached 414. please see the last picture together and let's see the report together. the last picture is two very important graphs. one of them is the index of the entire stock market you have. you can see above that almost on this day in 1400 245 1400 the index was 1 million 499. now it is almost two and two and we are talking. we do, of course, since

we had both halves, you have the middle of 1402 currencies. you can see that it was 185,426,000 tomans for me to meet you. today, you have almost your own price. 59 60 tomen, these were the changes of two of the other two variables that we talked about. on august 12, 1400, the eighth president of iran took over the government at the beginning of the new solar century in a situation where, according to the report of the iranian statistics center, the average economic growth of the following 90s was negative. tuesday, june 31, 1401, that is, 10 months after the start of the government of martyr raisi. we ended the year 1400 with an economic growth of 46%

we arrived activation of economic diplomacy with 29 foreign trips of the president to 24 countries of the world at the end of 3 years of his administration from shanghai to become a member of the shanghai cooperation organization to britain. and signing agreements and understandings by attracting more than 11 billion dollars of foreign investment in 3 years, the strategy that this government followed was the development of relations with neighbors , foreign investments that were made in front of the eyes of all the godfathers of sanctions. the result of that economic growth was 5% oil and more than 3% non-oil economic growth, the revival of hundreds of factories and production units. nearly 4627 industrial units in the 13th government so far, it has been revived, and of course, the employment rate has increased

, we have achieved the creation of one million job opportunities annually, with the growth of employment and the real exit from the recession, a plan of the 13th government should allocate 400,000 tomans to subsidies for each person. 4th decks and later, 300 thousand tomans according to the statistics center's report, the gini coefficient also decreased in the 13th government, which means that the class gap has decreased. liquidity the growth rate of liquidity in 2019 was 406. the report i got from the central bank

the growth of liquidity 233 the financial situation of the government institutions has also improved with the implementation of financial discipline and thanks to the implementation of the single treasury account law. look at the fight of the americans. the 13th government was not happy with the oil statistics, the smartening of the maadi tax system. instead of case-based and auditor-based, the work will be audited. the result of this smartening of the tax system is an increase in the share of tax revenue in the government budget at 12:00 noon

on sunday, august 8, 1403. from now on, we will talk about statistics. they will say that in the coming months and years, narges mozhezdi. radio news agency yes , we saw and heard my colleague's report together, here in our studio mr. rouhani, deputy minister of economic affairs and finance , mr. zamaniyan and mr. we saw and talked about it in the program and in the report. to your excellency and dear viewers, if we want to summarize in one sentence , i think the performance of shahid raisi's government is a really defensible success. in the field of real sector statistics, that is

, in the employment growth statistics, the unemployment rate, investment , especially in comparison with the twelfth government in the statistics related to the nominal part of the economy, liquidity control in particular, as mentioned , is the basis of the inflation rate, which has been controlled to a good extent, and other nominal variables are those that have started a downward trend, but still at the desired level. finally, the discussion is about the management of currency fluctuations and in particular the issue of the inflation rate , the trend of which is now in the slide. naturally, we did not reach that desirable threshold , naturally, our next question to you was that in your opinion, what are the two most important weaknesses of

the horn? fourteenth, what should be done when these two variables , which borez's name was mentioned in, were managing the fluctuations of the economy and controlling the inflation, to see the performance of the country's economy . to bring this government forward to a certain point , it should be continued from here on, by the next government, a series of infrastructures, such as reforms in the tax system, such as infrastructures for financial monitoring of the budget, these things went very well in the shahid raisi government, that is, the events that it had not fallen in 10 years, in two years his examples were in various subjects such as

taxation. it was prepared and the reason for that downward trend is exactly the same infrastructure that was created, but naturally, in order to control the budget deficit, we are facing all kinds of imbalances. the banking system in the field of foreign exchange, if we go to the control of our discontent, it is naturally one of the statistics that was talked about a lot and different records were mentioned that were set and hardly compared to the 90s, it was about economic growth, obviously the state of growth if you want to compare the economy in the 90s with what happened in the last three years, for example , we saw some of the statistics together, but let's hear more detailed explanations from your language. well, in the 90s, if your friends actually bring the slides and show them the first slide. we have economic growth. the investment rate

is the two cases that the performance of the 90s in these two important variables was the real part of the unfavorable performance. well, we want to compare. now, i don't know whether the reforms are being shown or not. well, look at our average economic growth in the 3 years of 1400, 1401 and 1402 with our oil 5 half percent without oil is showing now it is given and without oil it was 4 percent. these same variables in the last 3 years of the previous government , our growth without oil was one and one-tenth percent, and negative growth was 4 percent of economic growth. why is it important because what people ultimately face in the form of real income is exactly the result of economic growth, that is, job creation. it can be done in advance and income

will be created for the family. the conditions of sanctions are not much different between the last 3 years of the previous government and the first 3 years of the new government . almost the same conditions of sanctions continued , but a few things happened. one is that the approach has changed. it was international in the export of oil, the export of gas standards, and these issues that both helped to manage

the government's budget and created foreign exchange resources for the development of infrastructure, investment, especially in the economy. the sum of these conditions, plus the reforms that were made in the field of the working environment, the issue of permits and many other currency management issues that we had in the country, practically all of these led to a serious increase in investment in our infrastructure, especially industry and mining. it was done both in the machines and in the building , which is in the next slide. growth in the oil sector. and in the industry and mining sector, which is completely distinguishable, now this slide is not in the slide collection, but i will share the statistics, the growth of the industry and mining group in the last three years of the 12th government

was on average negative 56%, but in in the first 3 years of shahid raisi's government, 69% were positive. well, this is not possible, so he said that only we grow. we were based on oil . it is true that in this government, oil exports were revived due to the conditions that we had finally kept the ship afloat as a reservoir of oil standards but gas standards , but that is the path of progress and growth in the industry sector. and mining and services, the growth of our services was higher than 5.4 percent on average. in

the previous government, it was about 4 percent. that is, if we have negative investment growth for several years in a row, in the next three or four years, for example , it will be very difficult to create significant economic growth. we already mentioned that these changes in economic growth and investment are mainly due to the sale of oil, and the end of the corona epidemic, which was able to help very well. let it affect the number we are referring to, how correct is this? however, what happened when the oil export changed and finally, the actions taken by the government at the beginning to control the corona epidemic in the situation that we see until almost a year later, in the rest of the world, the corona is still causing casualties, naturally, these are

government measures. let's say that the export of the corona virus was lifted by itself, oil exports were revived, economic growth was achieved by itself, why then these events before? chia mentioned the most important variables and indicators that can be considered a strength in the 13th government in the name of allah, the merciful , the most merciful, i say hello to you, my dear viewers . your program has worked. in my opinion, we want to examine the 13th government. let's hope that the future government will see the positive performance of the achievements of the 13th government and

if there are any shortcomings, it will try to compensate for those shortcomings. in my opinion, if we review the economic indicators, the indicators fell economically, they give us a good analysis , especially, for example, indicators such as our economic growth, while in the 90s we experienced a growth close to zero , in the 3 years of the 13th government in 14014 and then in 1402, we were able to experience 6 growth in the economy. which means getting out of recession. which almost covered our economy for nearly a decade . naturally, this does not mean that all the economic backwardness of a decade of 3 years has been compensated

, but the path towards positive movement towards. it was fluctuating, but in the recent period , it entered channel 7. i think it was a good thing that if this happened let's put aside the gini coefficient index as an index that finally determines the explanation of income in the economy . in the last year , we experienced the lowest gini coefficient in the last half century in the country, which shows the income gap between class deciles . in my opinion, one of the events that could help to reduce the class gap

was to make the discussion of preferential widths more targeted, and the government was finally able to give this to the people in the form of cash grants, regardless of the iranians it had in the implementation method and removing the 420 width. if it had been implemented, it would have had more blessings, but this is an economic problem that there was a structure in our economy that created corruption and it was mainly related to the upper classes in my opinion, so in my opinion, reforming this helped a lot to increase the gini coefficient and the class gap in other areas apart from economic indicators. in the field of tax issues , good things have happened in the country's tax system , the tax reforms that have been implemented in recent years, well , on the one hand, it has made it clear what point you are referring to in the field of taxation. i think it was one of the good things in the public budget well, for years, one of the serious complaints

we had was the heavy dependence of the country's public budget on oil revenue. well, in recent years , there has been a significant increase in the share of taxes in the public budget, and this increase is also through pressure on production units. it was not the production sector. in my opinion, the important point was that while this production tax increased from 25% to about 18% due to the exemptions given to production units and some production units were given more exemptions, but at the same time our tax revenue is the ratio of revenue to the general budget taxes to the public budget increased , qualitatively, the tax system itself, the percentage of bank transactions, that is, we created new tax bases in order not to put pressure on production and we were able to reach through. some of the tax evasions should be helped to increase the country's tax revenue. now, on the other hand

, if you can briefly summarize the weaknesses , the indicators may not have gone that way . one of the most important indicators is the inflation index . 97, our country entered a period of inflationary stagnation , the 13th government was able to solve the recession through the increase of economic growth, but since 2017 , when we entered channel 40 in the area of ​​inflation, in the years 1400 to 1402 , we did not leave channel 40 in terms of annual inflation, although there was a drop in point-by-point inflation from about 60 in september 1400, we reached about 38 this year, but finally, the inflation itself has remained at channel 40 for years, while the sector. in my opinion, one of the policies to get out of inflation is cashable policies, and we

need to move a bit towards sustainable policies to get out of inflation. it happened in the area of ​​controlling the growth of the balance sheet. these were policies that, while helping to reduce inflation point by point , are also policies that may affect the economic growth in the long run, for example, in the field of energy subsidies. in my opinion, the government has not moved towards fundamental reforms, which means that we have an unfair energy system in which the benefits of the upper classes in this system are much higher than the energy subsidies . official reports show that the upper classes receive 25 times of this subsidy. are more beneficial and we need to move to the side of making it fair and explaining the subsidy between different classes without wanting to cause price shocks to the society, well, in my opinion, especially

the incident that happened in 2018 in the case of aban 2018 caused the government to be too cautious in moving to the side of reforming the energy subsidy system that i mentioned, or for example, one of the other areas that i think has a lot of room for the government to enter into, is the issue of organizing state-owned companies, which the government did not have the opportunity to seriously and effectively enter into these companies. many of these companies have become the secret life of political parties and factions, sometimes with bahrabi very low if we study the economic indicators of these things like property, the numbers are really deplorable numbers, that is , when we talk about the budget, naturally, the side of the budget resources is one of the important events, which is 60% of our general budget at the moment. state companies are formed and we have 11 times more companies that do not come in our budget at all, that is

, state-affiliated companies that have business and private sectors in the form of law. naturally, the focus on the budget when it was too much on the expenditure side was on the side of increasing resources, that is, it was on the side of resources that the sector most of them are in government companies, i have a little problem with you , mr. zorian, very short because our time is limited. if you please, now you have given examples of economic growth, tax activities and other variables. in the field of strengths of the 13th government , you have also brought up some weaknesses. ask to say what should be the priority of the 14th government to fix the weaknesses you mentioned and what should it do to continue the strengths you mentioned such as economic growth, reducing the unemployment rate and reforming tax policies, in my opinion , the most important thing is to stop our experiences are a series there are mistakes that different governments keep

repeating in different periods of time, one example of which is banking policies. which sometimes caused us to save the inflation in the banks and in the periods when the economic pressure comes , suddenly this inflation is discharged on the society or the discussion of under-selling that happens in different markets such as arz seke to control the market. experience has shown that these policies are usually not only not successful, but sometimes due to the fueling of the unsatisfying demand in its own market, it sometimes creates a series of variables in our economy. leaving the past of knowledge management, the discussion of experience registration , and the use of experiences will help us to continue the positive points of the previous government and complete it as one of the parts of our economic puzzle, god willing. thank you very much, mr. zahorian. a member of the economic commission of the islamic shura majlis, who was with us in this conversation, mr. zahorian, in the area of ​​poverty

of the 13th government, specifically in the area of ​​mr. rouhani's indicators , specifically in the area of ​​poverty, how much did the indicators improve in the 13th government ? the last point of mr. zahorian he was in charge of government companies. look at the statistics that he mentioned about the various financial ratios of government companies. at the beginning of shahid raisi's government, almost all the financial statements of all government companies were confidential, that is, myself as a researcher. if i wanted to, a research manager asked me to do a master's degree in the field of public companies. i couldn't publish it now that we are talking about 2,000 state-owned companies and companies in which the government can appoint a management chair , their financial statements are transparent and accessible to the public. i would like to say that a series of infrastructures were done , of the same nature, finally, judging the performance of the managers of state-owned companies

can now be based on statistics and numbers. we also discussed the poverty rate, but before that , i would like to make an additional point regarding the economic growth. you can see that we can compare the performance of the government with the predictions of international organizations regarding the performance of both the economic growth and the unemployment rate. let's do it, that is, if we assume for example that we are in the year 1401 and the international monetary fund is predicting our growth in 1402, if in practice year it is a defensible action. the next table in the slides was a comparison of the performance of economic growth with the forecasts of international organizations. both world bank and ayam. well, in every 3 years, the performance of our economic growth, which is in the third line of both tables, compared