♪ this sunday, iowa decides. >> are you ready to make some history on monday night? >> this is go time. >> republicans are facing frost

bite and dangerous record low temperatures as they get ready to make their choice in the first nominating contest of 2024. chaos follows him. >> you can't just terminate the constitution. >> former president donald trump lead his rivals even as he makes some of his closing arguments from outside a courtroom. >> it's a witch hunt in the truest sense of the word. >> who will emerge as trump's biggest challenger. steve kornacki and chuck todd will offer a guide on what to watch on caucus night. plus smoke signals. chris christie exits the gop race warning nikki ilthatty will get smoked, but will he consider his own independent third party run? >> i am going to make sure that in no way do i enable donald trump to ever be president of the united states again. and striking back. the u.s. launches air strikes in yemen as tensions rise in the middle east. >> these strikes were very

deliberate, very focused. >> while the pentagon's top official remains hospitalized and under fire for failing to disclose his cancer diagnosis and hospitalization. my guest this morning republican senator joni ernst of iowa. minnesota's democratic governor tim walz. joining me for insight and analysis are nbc news senior capitol hill correspondent garrett haake. bri ann phanstiel from the dem oin register, and ross will burn, a former iowa democratic party chair and marc short, former chief of staff to vice president mike pence. welcome to sunday and a special edition of "meet the press." >> from nbc news in des moines for the iowa presidential caucuses. this is a special edition of "meet the press qwest "with kristen welker. >> good sunday morning from a bitterly cold, des moines, iowa,

where republicans will say who they want facing off against republicans in november. will former president trump crack 50%? what about the race for second place? can nikki haley and ron desantis make a stronger-than-expected showing and gain momentum? we begin this morning with the des moines, iowa, register poll and i am joineded by steve kornacki to break it down. here we go. >> the nbc poll with the des moines register, they have been doing this for decades and have one of the best polls in the business and what do they find on the eve of the caucuses, donald trump continue to have an enormous lead and trump at 48%. nikki haley now in second place here at 20%, passing ron desantis who is at 16. vivek rm swami at 8% in terms of

any change from our previous poll which was done last month. we do see trump down a tick, as we say haley moving there into second place and ramaswamy into second place and put this trump lead in some perspective. the 48% that he's registering here, that is the highest share for a republican candidate in a final des moines register poll ever that surpasses the record of 43% from george w. bush on the eve of the 2,000 caucuses. bush won those caucuses and that's a 28-point margin and that is also the biggest margin in a final register poll, also breaking a record of george w. bush of 23 points when he waun won the caulkises in 2000. we've been seeing a lot in the polling this year. what about this question whether you mentioned it and is everyone talking about it and could it affect turnout, could it help someone? i don't know, but this is a measure and maybe this is a

clue. we asked voters are you extremely enthusiastic about your candidate? you can see, basically half of trump supporters say extremely enthusiastic. here's the worrying note for nikki haley, fewer than 10% of herr her supporters put themselves in that category. are her supporters going to turn out? that question is we've been seeing all along. is your mind made up? you see a majority for all candidates now and more core, locked-in support for trump than the other two and that's the story we've been seeing throughout this process. first driving donald trump to this big lead. you see it, it's evangelical voters. in 2016 they made up about two-thirds, two out of every two votes cast in the iowa caucuses. trump in 2016 lost to

evangelicals lost by double digits and what a turnaround in eight years. he now has an outright majority and he's 30 points ahead of ron desantis who has gone hard with this group of voters. the rule in iowa is if you win the evangelical vote, you win the republican caulkises and trump is cleaning up in our poll with evangelicals. what has gotten haley into second place, it's independents and they'll make up 20% of the electorate. haley not winning this group, but look how close she is to trump, haley, 33, trump 27, among independent voters. here is where it gets tricky, though. she's appeals to independents and in this poll we find that half, half of her support in this iowa poll comes from self-described independents or self-described democrats. we asked supporters of nikki haley and ron desantis what's your opinion of donald trump? more than three out of four

haley voters have a negative view of donald trump. she really is consolidating the anti-trump vote that is out there and you wonder, if this is starting to affect this. desantis still very popular. haley, 48-46, favorable, unfavorable. she's become polarizing. a month ago, her favorable was 60, her unfavorable, 31, soaring up for her. candidates who get associated, we've seen this with christie and we've seen this with pence with anti-trump voters and pro-trump republicans tend to turn on them. is that maybe what we're seeing happen here with haley supporters and how about this for a number two? again, among haley supporters. they don't like trump in general. who would you vote for? biden or trump and this is nikki haley supporters in iowa, 43%

say they'd be with biden, the democrat. more than half, 23% say they'd be with donald trump. that speaks to the coalition that hail seems to be putting together and the bottom line question was asked at the start of the campaign, candidate, all of the legal woes and the trials going on here, asking republicans in iowa, is it going to hurt him in the general election. remember, desantis got in this race sort of thinking republicans would think it would, even the caucuses, iowa republican caucus goers say he can win the race against joe biden, only 23% say they're going to make it awfully tough for trump. the electability argument at the beginning of this campaign we wondered will it hurt trump with republicans, doesn't look like it is in iowa, kristen. >> now we have our answer, right, steve? fascinating breakdown. of course, as you say, the big

question will caulkers goers turn out in this big chill. we'll have to see. steve, thank you. >> you got it. folks, we can't say it enough, the temperatures are dangerously low and dropping and tomorrow is expected to be colder than any previous caucus day on record. will iowans turn out? the candidates have spent the last 48 hours making their closing arguments. >> it will get even colder and we're in, we're showing up. donald trump has phoned it in and he'll be hanging down in mar-a-lago. i'm sure it's 75 degrees there. >> now monday is going to be cold, really cold but what i'm asking you is if you would take the time to not just go to the polls, take people with you. >> we have a huge -- a huge advantage here.

i just landed an airplane and it's nasty out there. i had a poll that just came out, in iowa i'm leading by 40 points and they can't find a bad one. >> donald trump, if he's the nominee, the whole election will be about legal issues, criminal trials, maybe criminal convictions by then, january 6th, all of that, that plays into the democrats' hands. >> chaos follows him and we can't be a country and i world on fire and go through four more years of chaos, we won't survive it. >> joining me is joni ernst who chairs the republican policy committee and the first female combat veteran elected to serve in the united states senate. senator ernst, welcome back to "meet the press." >> oh, good morning, kristen. it's great to be with you.

>> it is great to have you. happy caucus-eve. we know you have not endorsed a candidate. donald trump has nearly 30 points in our latest poll, but of course, the big x factor here is the weather. i have to ask you before we delve into policy issues, do you think these frigid temperatures will help or hurt donald trump on caucus night? >> well, it's hard to know. iowans are a hearty people and there are no snow days when it comes to caucus. so we'll see who turns out tomorrow night. i would say wear your insulated boots and go out and support your candidate of choice, but kristen, it really is hard to tell who will drive out the most voters, but one thing i can say iowa being the first in the nation caucus state, we do take this very seriously. >> i've been out talking to folks and everyone is saying exactly that point, senator. i want to ask you about former

u.n. ambassador nikki haley. in our poll she comes in second place, but if you look at the polls overall, she does best against president biden in a general election campaign. former president trump is tied effectively with president biden. if republicans want to win back the white house is nikki haley your best bet? >> well, i think she is a great candidate. again, i'm not endorsing anyone in the iowa caucuses, but if you look at the issues that are top of mind for iowa republicans, they are the economy and they've suffered under president biden. it is the southern border and the flow of illegal migrants into the united states, but overall, if you look at national security, protecting our borders and pushing back against our adversaries worldwide, nikki haley does have the experience there, and she spoke to that, to the iowa voters. so that may be one of the

tipping points that resonate with so many different voters. >> let me try to get at the question this way. do you plan to endorse whichever candidate emerges as the winner after the iowa caucuses? >> well, it will depend. i have gone round and round in my mind. i do think that president trump is going to win. we see such a large margin, but it's not a foregone conclusion. so we'll see who comes out the winner here in the iowa caucuses. we'll know tomorrow night and we'll know how to move forward, but one thing we know as iowa republicans is that we cannot have joe biden in the white house for a second term. >> so just to be very clear if donald trump wins tomorrow night, would you endorse him, senator? >> well, again, i am not going to say that. i need to review the candidates very carefully. we'll see the margin. i guess i am assuming that

president trump wins, but it could be any one of these fantastic candidates. so we'll see who emerges. i've made up my decision on who i will caucus for. it is a private ballot, and i would expect that we'll have a very good turnout, but again, kristen, i'm not going to tip my hand to what i might be supporting. >> all right. has donald trump asked for your endorsement, senator? >> i've had a request from all of the candidates. i am not endorsing and we'll keep those discussions private. >> and you're not ruling out endorsing donald trump, though, if he wins or if he wins the nomination. you'll endorse the gop -- >> no. i'm not ruling that out at all, but certainly we want to let iowans make that decision through the weekend and tomorrow night. they'll come together at 7:00 p.m. here in iowa. they'll get out in the snow and

the cold weather and then we will go from there starting tuesday morning. >> all right. i want to ask you about your recent trip. you were just in the middle east with other lawmakers looking to secure the release of the six americans still being held hostage by hamas. do you have any reason to believe that there could be a pause in the fighting to allow for the release of more hostages in the near future, senator? what came out your trip? >>. >> kristen, i truly hope so. we still have six americans that remain in the hands of hamas and the gaza strip. we are seeing now the negotiation for medications going into gaza strip for the hostages. that is extremely important and i led a bipartisan, bicameral litigation to the middle east and spoke with leaders that are actually dealing with hamas on this very issue, leaders in egypt, leaders in qatar and

leaders in bahrain and of course, israel, but again, every second counts. we must get these hostages back as soon as possible. their families are depending on it, their lives depend on it, and we cannot forget these are our american brothers and sisters. >> absolutely. >> i want to stay on this topic of hostages. donald trump has gotten a lot of attention for labeling those who are serving time for the january 6th attack as hostages. you obviously know the difference between those convicted of crimes related to january 6th and hostages. does it bother you that donald trump is using that language? >> it does in this context because we do have american hostages that are being held against their will all around the globe and especially if you look at the innocents that were attacked and kidnapped on october 7th, we are approaching nearly 100 days. these are people that have been

taken. they're held in tunnels with terrorists. they are being tortured. they have been raped and they have been denied medication. so equating two, there is no comparison. our americans that are being held overseas, they are innocent. they were there celebrating the high jewish holidays and were taken by these horrible terrorists so there is no, call term. the hostages are hostages. i would certainly ask to speak to any of their families and i would speak to their families and not knowing if their loved ones are alive or dead and there is a very clear difference. >> as you know, mr. trump is also talking about pardoning some of those who have been convicted. would you advise him against that? are you opposed to pardoning those serving time for january 6th. >> i am not opposed to that.

that is a president's prerogative. so if former president donald trump is elected as our next president he does have the right to do that, and i think we all need -- >> 700 of them, senator -- 7 hun 700 of them have pled guilty to storming the capitol on january 6th. you would support pardoning them? >> again, i am not saying that i would support pardoning them, but that is a president's prerogative to do so. we have seen many presidents through the years that have pardoned many others and if donald trump chooses to do that as the next president of the united states, again, that will be his decision. >> these are people, though, who attacked the building that you were in. you called them insurrectionists at the time. would you not counsel mr. trump against pardoning them? >> i did not call them insurrectionists. i don't remember using that term. i would say that they did break

the law. they did break the law, and i am not excusing any of their behavior, but again, that's up to the president. >> that term was used in an op-ed by you in "the demain register" and let me do a quick rapid fire round. obviously, this week the biden administration ordered attacks against houthi targets in yemen. this all happened when the defense secretary was in the hospital. he signed off on these strikes and of course, it came after a delay in himmic maing the president and the american people aware of his medical condition. do you think he should still be serving as the defense secretary? >> well, i do think that there will need to be actions taken as soon as we get all of the information which hasn't been gathered together for members of congress. we have seen very little transparency coming from the department of defense, and i think it's absolutely

inexcusable that our secretary of defense was hospitalized and unable to perform his duties and no one seemed to know what the heck was going on. this is not a circus, folks, and he is not the director of this small business administration. he is the secretary of defense. when we see attacks against american service members overseas and we see the actions in the red sea, we see the war in israel and in ukraine, we need someone who can be at the helm and be transparent. it also goes to an issue, kristen, does the secretary of defense actually trust president joe biden that he didn't have the courtesy to call him and let him know what was going on? is joe biden really in control as our commander in chief? this begs that question, and we, as congress, demand answers. >> all right. undoubtedly you will be looking to get those answers.

president biden saying he still has confidence in secretary austin. senator joan ir ernst, thank you very much. we really appreciate it. joining me now is democratic governor tim walz chair of the governors association and top surrogate for president biden. governor walz, welcome back to "meet the press." >> thanks for having me. >> thanks for being here on this caucus-eve and chilly temperatures. >> you are used to chilly temperatures. let's talk about some of the challenges that president biden faces. one of them is his age and you've been an outspoken defender and the first lady went so far to say it's an asset and voters aren't buying that and what does the campaign need to do to address this issue. >> first there, is something to be said about age and wisdom and results matter. i watched infrastructure come and go and i watched joe biden deliver on a historic infrastructure, building in minnesota and iowa and when the

choice becomes the binary choice between donald trump and disdain for the rule of law and joe biden competency and getting things done. that overweighs that. >> but, i guess the question is the campaign taking this issue seriously enough. do they need to do more? >> i think they are. they've got us out here talking about it and he's great and we're talking and chatting about it and we all get a little older and that's what happens, and you also gain that insight. i think when it comes to these issues working across the aisle to get things done, you see the president doing it with dignity, with class and getting up every day and doing the work. i think he's doing what he does and it's incumbent upon all of us and my mom is 88, still living on the farm and drives herself. folks are able to do this so this ageism that goes to this, if it's not that it would be something else. they attack all of us on something. this is part of it. >> former obama adviser david axelrod is worried democrats aren't taking the warning signs serious enough.

he said dismissing biden's challenges is deeply unhelpful and the concerns are real. do you think the campaign runs the risk of ignoring -- >> oh, no. this will be a close election. we're focusing on the assets and no, they're taking it very seriously. i think the way they take it seriously they're continuing to put out incredible policies and for example the school nutrition program that will extend into the summer is incredible. we've seen 15 governors including this state turn that down. we have hungry children. the biden-harris administration is still working the policies. nobody thinks this is going to be easy. nobody thinks this is going to be anything, but close, but we're focusing on november, and it's a big issue here. >> the campaign and the issue of migrants and some are calling to abandon biden over his handling

of what we are seeing in the middle east. illinois governor prits ger wrote this, unfortunately, the welcome and aid illinois has been providing to these asylum seekers has not been matched with support by the federal government. the federal government's lack of intervention at the border has created an untenable situation for illinois. has the president been focused enough on these issues, do you think? >> look, the immigration system is broken and i was in congress, the gang of six in 2018. the fact of the matter is on day one of this presidency joe biden put out a comprehensive plan on immigration reform and continues to ask for help that's necessary. republicans don't want it -- he wants the economy to fail on this. this is an issue they use at this time of the year, but there is no doubt. the system isec broen. we need to have com prehnsive immigration reform. they're experiencing trauma in

their own countries and we need workers in iowa and the processing plants and those things. we need to do that. chaos caucus is doing nothing about it. >> i should clarify, i combined the middle east and migrants because we are going to get to the middle east in just one moment, but look, governor pritzker is saying this is effectively an urgent situation. >> it is. >> he is pleading for help and that it's not getting there quickly enough. why hasn't been there -- >> the executive branch does not appropriate. we saw congress can do this. we saw it in '18 when we got close and it would be an election issue and we saw the migrant caravan. they're not serious people. two things are true here. the system is broken and we need the help. >> do you think it's a crisis, what's happening at the border? i think it could be fixed. i think crisis is we certainly have these -- i don't want people living outside minnesota right now. i think there's the humanity piece of this and they have the

right to control their borders as we should. more could be done, but they're doing nothing and the president is asking for more aid for border patrol and not getting it. >> do you think the border is secure? >> i think the border with the folks who do the work down there are doing a great job. could we do better? absolutely. and again, if the executive branch had their way it would have wanted on day one and i encourage folks and the senator get something done, send the resources over and we in the executive branch follow the laws written by the congress and there is a broken system. >> i do want to ask you about the middle east because polling is showing that president biden is losing voters due to his support of israel's war against hamas and again, muslim leaders in your state are calling for democratic voters to, quote, abandon biden. we saw protesters gathering outside the white house gates calling for a ceasefire.

do you think that president biden needs to change strategies in the middle east? >> since october 7th, it's a horrific situation and many of us have dealt with this issue traveling to israel, but the president has to hand them as commander and chief. he doesn't get to second gets on this. he's making sure israel is an ally and he's showing incredible concern for the palestinian people showing that hamas is not a good actor and the palestinian authority has to figure that out. as far as folks expressing their opinions and i understand their frustration and they have family members there, but the question i would ask, abandoning president biden manies a muslim ban. whether it's president trump or the other folks, it's the different flavor of the same maga kool-aid. they will do nothing for this two-state solution, and they will do nothing to provide humanitarian aid and their battle cry is not one penny for anything else. they are abandoning ukraine and

they will a bandon everything else. the president has great and a lot of experience in foreign affairs. he is doing the best he can to bring this thing to a conclusion. >> you don't think he needs to start calling for a ceasefire. >> he's calling for a reasonable end to this that has to be in a place where israel can defend itself as well as making sure that we can protect palestinian people and hamas has done nothing to do that. >> thank you for being here. >> stay warm. >> you, too. thank you. when we come back, chuck todd is with us in iowa with what (vo) explore the world the viking way from the quiet comfort of elegant small ships with no children and no casinos. we actually have reinvented ocean voyages, designing all-inclusive experiences for the thinking person. viking - voted world's best by both travel + leisure and condé nast traveler.

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"meet the press". >> thank you. my favorite off-site location that we ever had. these folks here are fantastic. >> they are fantastic, and you make it complete, and chuck, the big x factor is the weather. we want to show folks, we actually did a little experiment. we threw a cup of coffee outside into the air. look at what happens, chuck? >> i love it. my daughter who is majoring in meteorology will have fun with this. i love it. >> it speaks to how frigid and dangerously cold temperatures and the question is always about turnout and that adds a new element and what will you be watching in addition to the weather? >> that's the point. it almost is the entire turnout. rick santorum didn't win in a large turnout and those sorts of things and donald trump has benefitted from big turnouts. he really, when we've had the higher the turnout it's been in the general election the more

trump voters have come and is there a complacency issue that trump has to worry about? this is a question where weather has suddenly become the entire ball game and it should be a real advantage to ron desantis. here is a guy that has been building an organization longer than any other campaign. he's got the governor on his side who has a built-in organization. this is why you build an organization is when the weather drops unexpectedly, are you going to get your people out? in theory, i think this is setting up really well right now for ron desantis. >> let's talk about that race for second place. explain to people because we've been talking about it for days, second place is important, but for ron desantis it really is important and nikki haley has edged him out in the poll and if you look at enthusiasm bes in only 9% of voters are enthusiastic to support her. >> the only good news in the poll for nikki haley and every other part of this, when you

look at the internals of this and this is not a candidacy that's on the rice and this is one that peaked too soon. everything fell into place for her and all of a sudden it imploded and fell into place on the same day. chris christie gets out and sort of steps on her candidacy. she gets a one-on-one with desantis and desantis seems to have the better one here. second place only matters if donald trump's under 50. >> why? >> this is the most republican electorate you're going to have and if you can hold the front-runner and former president under 50 in this electorate, which is as friendly an electorate as he's going to have, you can do it here, half the party would like to see this go on, but if he's over 50 i don't know how well second place is anymore. second place only looks as good as how many percentage points under 50 trump is. >> if he's over 50, i don't want

to overstate this, is that close to a game over when you think about it? >> if you're donald trump -- >> in new hampshire with a lot of momentum. >> if you're donald trump you're over 50 and ron desantis is in second because it takes the wind out of the sails of haley. it means it won't be a consolidation and both move on to new hampshire. they seem to be flirting with stepping new hampshire we'll go to south carolina first and in that advisory, they're not sure what they're going to do, and that in itself is a victory for trump. >> speaking about victories for trump. you have a new column out talking about how candidates can best challenge them and you write in 50 years when historians look back at this campaign they will no doubt examine it through the prism of whether the gop wanted trump or a new direction, but that's not the campaign that's actually taking place. what is the best way to confront trump? because they haven't found it.

>> they haven't. they've tried to do just a character campaign, making a character case, but trying to separate trump from trump echl and that's proven not to be. if you look at the last time there have been internal disputes inside the party about which direction to go, there is a robust debate on each side in '64 in '76 and even in '16. there really isn't a debate about whether trumpism is the best part for the party and the debate is trump and that's probably the mistake that haily and desantis. they haven't made the case that trump's first term is a failure. you may have liked the issues he's focused on and his inability to solve these problems is why we have the problems we have today and they seem to be afraid of making that argument. >> just very quickly, chuck, you and i at the start of the race wondered what his legal challenges would need. it's only made him stronger and that was the big x factor if you

remind to last year. >> there is. what if alvin bragg had not been first, and what if jack smith had done. >> ron desantis has already said his excuse if he ends up getting out of this race, he's already diagnosed why he didn't make it, and he has said he blames allen bragg. i talked to folks inside the white house and they didn't believe the indictments were of benefit to him in fairness. we continue to watch this extraordinary moment in our pol six, chuck. >> thanks for having me. >> great to have you here. when we come back, ron desantis is headed to south carolina after iowa, as we just said. what does that mean about the what does that mean about the futre of his campa ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back. the panel is here. nbc news senior capitol hill correspondent garrett haake. brianne pfannenstiel reporter for "the des moines register," ross wilburn, former chair of the iowa democratic party and marc short, former chief of staff to vice president mike pence. happy caucus-eve to all of you. thank you for being here.

>> good to be here. >> it's great to have all of you. garrett, you've been on the ground for days and covering >> it's not just the ground that's frozen solid here, to a certain degree it has been this race and it's been like that from the jump. trump has had the lead for a very long time here. the combination of the durability of the that lead and the weather has kind of stalled out what we normally see as the final sprint to the finish here. you don't see candidates pouring money into the caucuses right now, you don't see people adding campaign events, it's not practical and it's not going to make a difference. we shouldn't lose the forest through the trees. the story about the second place race is interesting but if donald trump doubles up the record in this state after having been impeached and criminally charged in four different jurisdictions since the last time he was on the ballot the do you remember ability he has in this primary, we can talk about everything thams after that down the line, is something that the republican party is beginning to grapple with.

this is where we are in this race right now. >> brianne, do you think we will see a historic night or do you think there will be some complacency? the trump team is a little concerned about that, people will say, well, he's going to win anyway, i don't need to go out into the cold temperatures to vote for him. >> for the point of his do you remember ability, he's not only maintained his lead, he's grown stronger over the months he's been campaigning here despite all the things that garrett mentioned. there may be some complacency, historically cold on monday, but, you know, donald trump has been fighting this he's been going to his commit to caucus rallies, been telling people i need to you show up the biggest threat to my win is if you guys stay home. >> mark, we got this news that governor desantis is heading to south carolina right after iowa. what do you make of that what do you make of this fight for second place as someone who has been in this battle well, look, i think that this race has been frozen in place for some time. i think trump's lead has been 20

to 30 points for a long time i don't make as much about whether desantis goes to south carolina, new hampshire next, i think the reality is he has to have a strong showing here because he doesn't have the same operation in new hampshire or south carolina i think the conundrum for nikki haley is if she does finish second, which i'm still skeptical, i think desantis has a better ground game but if she did and desantis dropped out, most of desantis' support goes back to trump. it doesn't really help her in the long term here whether desantis goes to south carolina, new hampshire, kristen, i still feel like this is not going to be a protracted nomination battle. i think by the time you get through south carolina we will know who the nominee is. >> we will know a lot more after come night, ross, including whether they are historic results. i want to show folks what that looks like the person who got the highest number of votes here in the iowa caucuses, bob dole all the way back in 1988, followed by george w. bush, mike huckabee, ted cruz set the scene.

>> you know, it -- we have to put history aside. this is now, it's a different time and the margins really aren't going to provide much insight. donald trump and all of the republicans are running on the same extreme maga agenda, so they're really racing to the bottom, wrapping their arms around the most extreme fringes of the party we should all be concerned about this. >> well, garrett, you know, it's interesting because we weren't just focused on the action on the campaign trail, this week, we were focused on what was happening outside of the courtroom, inside of the courtroom. >> that's right. >> donald trump at his civil trial in new york turned this into another campaign opportunity. >> it's interesting. figure back far enough in my notebook i can find trump advisers who were worried months ago that the legal problems that he had would become campaign trail problems later, even if just for scheduling purposes but the trump campaign has basically weaponized donald trump's legal problems and turned them into campaign opportunities. he gives the exact same message

in courtrooms as he's doing on the stump here this idea that he is somehow being unfairly targeted by the justice department or by da's, what have you, come out of the mouth of his supporters everywhere you go. so they've tried to turn it into an asset again, at a primary versus a general election, whole different conversation. >> brianne, is anyone talking about the president's legal issues here in iowa? what's the reality on the ground >> only to the extent that they are ready to move past them. they feel that he's being unfairly persecuted. you go to these campaign events and i talked to a woman yesterday who described herself as a donald trump groupie, she's been to see him six or seven times, she's going today to see him speak, these are people who believe that, you know, he is the only one who can fix the problems that they see on the ground and nothing in the courtroom is changing that for them one who can pick the problems that they see on the ground and nothing in the courtroom is changing for them. >> you saw from extraordinary moment unfold in the legal

battles. and his lawyers respond to the hypothetical question that former president trump's legal team said that he could direct the military to kill a political opponent and not -- as long as he's not convicted in the senate. do you think the democrats will start to use these issues against him because so far president biden has been hands off. >> this is shameful and frightening and we all should be concerned. >> do you think democrats will start talking about this? should they? >> this election is about choices and people are looking at whether we're going to unify behind the accomplishments of president biden and vice president harris. you know, it's just -- this is anti-american. we need to be focused about table issues and protecting medicare and protecting social security, ensuring, securing abortion rights. those table -- meat and potato issues that affect iowans and

americans. this is the playbook for america, this election. >> marc? >> there's an irony in the former president saying the executive privilege protects him from any prosecution and he also says on day one he'll prosecute joe biden. there's an enormous inconsistency there, but the problem for the table issues that he faces is the inflation, border crisis and the war in the middle east and war in eastern europe and those table issues drive people back to donald trump despite the legal challenges. >> all right. we will see what happens tomorrow night. stay with us. we have more of our panel. but more when we come back, why miracles can come true here in iowa. type 2 diabetes? discover the ozempic® tri-zone. ♪ ♪ i got the power of 3. i lowered my a1c, cv risk, and lost some weight. in studies, the majority of people reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. i'm under 7. ozempic® lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events such as stroke, heart attack, or death in adults also with known heart disease. i'm lowering my risk.

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welcome back. florida governor ron desantis has declared he will win iowa. former president donald trump says he'll win the state with his advisers promising at least a 12-point victory. nikki haley has been tough to pin down, staying vague. the expectations game is central to the first in the nation contest. back in 2007 here's how former governor mike huckabee talked about his odds. >> in october you told me you

would win the iowa caucuses, are you? >> i hope so, tim. i really do. >> no, you said you were. >> thursday night i'll know and i'll tell you this. we're being outspent 20 to 1. if we do you'll have a political story. >> would it be a miracle? >> my definition. yes, it would. i'm on record. yes, it would. >> well, huckabee, of course, won the caucuses. the party's eventual nominee senator john mccain finished fourth. when we come back what chris christie said on a hot mike after dropping out of a gop race, but is this really the end of h

she's going to get smoked, and you and i both know it. she's not up to this. >> she hasn't even on. >> 20 points with trump in new hampshire. >> oh, yeah. he's -- you know, i talked to de -- desantis called me petrified that i would -- >> he's probably getting after iowa. >> welcome back. that, of course, was former governor chris christie of new jersey caught on a hot mike minutes before he was announcing he was dropping out of the

presidential race and the panel is here with me. marc, take away. those moments are revealing and could he potentially be eyeing a third-party run. >> i think it's hard to see governor christie would run as a third party and how third part candidates will impact this race. he was 46% in 2020. if you take the anti-trump vote and divide it among multiple candidates it really hurtsed bien and helps donald trump. he hopes there are multiple third-party candidates in this race and in a head to head you'd probably think biden has the advantage. if it's a multi-candidate race it's anyone's game. >> weigh in on that because senator manchin got attention this week and he was in new hampshire at the politics and eggs breakfast. he said he'll make a decision in the next several months and how concerned are democrats about

what marc was talking about a third-party candidate. >> this election is about choices and democrats behind president biden and vice president harris and providing billions in infrastructure, clean energy and the meat and potatoes issues at the table. that's what people will have to decide and this is about disa, ray in the republican party and the caucus is pushing them. >> do you think the third-party candidate as marc is saying take away from president biden's support? >> it really hasn't been significant and they are laying the blueprint for how things proceed forward and time will tell, but it didn't work for ross perot. it's not going to work this time. >> third-party candidates, garrett, don't historically have any luck in general. >> that's right. they can help you lose. >> that's right. that's right. >> so let's talk about president biden. i mean, he is facing a real commander in chief moment. here this week he ordered the strikes against iranian-backed houthi targets in yemen.

we're talking about the scrutiny over his handling of the middle east. there's the war in ukraine. this is a commander in chief moment while he's in the fight of his political life, garrett. >> this is a double-edged sword of incumbency, no one gets to imagine what they want you to do as leader of the free world and he's been in this moment since october 7th. you've seen support for president biden go up among jewish-americans and they appreciate the way he's understand thatteled that war and he's been extremely outspoke ben the death in gaza and whether he and americans are more responsible for that and the biden campaign believes they can bring those people back into the tent with choosing between theal mightet and alternative. donald trump is not going to treat gazans any better than joe biden might, but he's very much in the spotlight on this issue and if you gave joe biden truth serum he said being in the pot light with foreign affair is

something that he's perfectly comfortable and it's something that only the commander in chief faces. >> how much focus is on president biden with the commander in chief moment particularly as we wait to see if there is a third party candidate. >> right, i think iowans are absolutely paying attention. we saw the conversation shift toward foreign affairs as all of this is happening and you watch what joe biden is doing right now while they're campaigning and donald trump is in the courtroom. he's in new hampshire and going back to his original campaign message which is this is for the sake of democrat see and he's going back to the messages that helped him win over donald trump. >> marc, final point? >> the problem with joe biden's campaign so far is he hasn't been talking about table issues and he's been talking about january 6th and if there are multiple candidates it will benefit donald trump a lot. >> you have about five seconds. >> joe biden is the president. he is leading. they're all trying to be president. this is a moment for our

president to show leadership and bringing the world together. >> all right. thank you all for being here on the eve of the caucuses. we really appreciate it. great conversation. before we go, don't miss our special coverage of the caucuses tomorrow night beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern on nbc news now and peacock. that's all for today. thank you so much for watching and we'll be back next week because if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." ♪♪ ♪♪

nearly 90 million brace for brutal cold this morning after a weekend of winter storms.

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