i'm margaret brennan in washington and this week on "face the nation." it is iowa caucus eve. but the traditional presidential campaign kickoff this year is anything but. in 2024, the starting line on the road to the republican nomination is an icy one. >> negative 20, negative 22.

and brave it for a few hours. and go and caucus for me. i'll be in there and in that white house for eight years fighting for you. >> with sub zero windchill temperatures preidicted for monday. >> our people are more committed than anybody else. >> but with the once robust gop field shrinking, few candidates are still -- >> don't play for second. >> what is it about trump among gop primary voters that has him more than 50 points over any other candidates in our new national poll? we'll have some striking insights into voters' talk and policy. and we'll talk with contender and former arkansas governor asa hutchinson and chris sununu. chris manchin will join us and we'll talk to john kirby about

the escalation of tensions in the mideast. and the growing controversy over defense secretary lloyd austin's secret hospitalization. it is all just ahead on "face the nation." ♪ good morning, and welcome to "face the nation." we begin today not with what you do know, that is te very cold outside for most of the country, and that former president trump is looking strong in iowa. based on our reporting, and state polls. we want to instead look at the bigger picture. that all three top gop contenders begin the year with a lead over president biden in our cbs news poll. former president trump is up 550 to 48% and ron desantis has a 51

to 48%. that is both within the margin of error. but it is nikki haley who has the biggest lead, eight points over president biden at 53 to 45%. we turn now to cbs news executive director of elections and surveys, anthony to tell us more. good to have you here. >> good morning. >> that is a pretty dramatic advantage for haley over biden. why is she outperforming him instead of trump or desantis? >> republican voters think it is trump who has the best chance for them to beat biden. maybe they haven't seen this poll yet. but, look, haley is on, on qualities in a president, better or about even with biden. things like empathy, things like ability to compromise and toughness where she leads and does just as well as the other two desantis and trump. right. the other part of this, margaret, is it is all straight

demographics. she does well with women. she does better with independents. she does better getting people to cross over from biden 2020 to her. all of that reflects on the bidenez underperformance with his democratic base and finally this point on the economy, we still see voters telling us by two to one they feel they are worse off under biden than better off financially because it reflect this is ongoing sting of what happened with his ratings after inflation. even though the economy is starting to stabilize, he's not getting the political benefit from that. partly because it is about the rate of change, inflation is slowing. but prices are still high. and that doesn't look like it is -- his argument is resonating that well right now. >> but voters may not see this hypothetical head-to-head match-up because your poll found president trump with his biggest lead among gop primary voters nationwide thus far this cycle.

55 points. what is driving it? >> indeed. well some of this is he just spans different parts of the pat party. so for republicans that want a tax cut, that those are maga who want a combative approach and want the culture war, he's their guy. and he's got more strong supporters than anybody else. people who say their considering only him. who will not change their minds. and that throughout this campaign is put a floor under his support that has been hard for any other candidate to shake. and look, that part in that sense is not news. but contextually, as we go into this primary season, it is important to then reiterate that this is something in a phenomenon, with this showing loyalty to an individual that we really have not seen for people in polling in u.s. politics other than for donald trump and that maga base.

>> so what about the content of what he is saying? and his platform? he said i am your retribution, for example. what do voters think that means? >> well the important thing here is comparing people who call themselves maga to the rest of the party. because the maga base is much more likely to say they like that idea, the idea of punishing or going after his political opponents. if he gets into office. these are the kinds of things that get the other campaigns to talk about authoritarianism, and things that are potential threats to democracy. but in the eyes of the maga base, they bought the narrative that the election was stolen. they want to see pardons for the january 6 rioters and all of that means to them that they've had something taken from them and they're trying to push back against it and donald trump is their vehicle for that. >> he's channeling something

there. but what about rhetoric like his remarks that immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country. >> a majority of republicans say they agree with his statements. and we looked at it both ways. when we told them donald trump said it, even more agreed with it. so he has that effect. but they agreed with it anyway, even when we didn't know that donald trump has said it. that is important because it also speaks -- >> that is tremendous. >> it is. and i think it speaks not just to issues with the border but to larger issues of race in this campaign. and i'll point out this way. when we ask people what they think of diversity efforts in the u.s., the people feel that diversity efforts in the u.s. have gone too far. they are overwhelming voting for trump. people who feel they have not gone enough are overwhelming voting for biden and that is an important dynamic when we look

at the strong trump support but sets up the key narrative going forward in the '24 campaign. >> fascinating. thank you. tony dokoupil is in iowa and spoke to former governor nikki haley. >> iowans make their decision very late. this istill an open ball game. what is your closing argument to them. >> let's get rid of the chaos. let's leave the old names of the past and move forward with a new conservative leader that is going to get our country back on track. we can't go through four more years of chaos, we can't go through trump or biden any more. 75% of american said they don't want a trump biden rematch. so we need to give them something else and that is what we're trying do to. >> we've been talking to voters for the past two weeks and a lot of voters like you very much -- >> yeah. >> but they hope you'll be a vice president this time around. how do you feel about that?

>> i don't play for second. i'm not interested in being vice president. i'm running to be president and i'm running to win. and we will. >> what is your message to the voters in particular who like you enough to be vp but are still stuck on donald trump? >> well i think, look, if you want four more years of chaos, that is what you're going to get. what is more concerning, if you look at those head-to-head polls, trump and biden are even. it is a nail biter of an election. i don't want a president kamala harris. >> to talk more about the tate of the contest we turn to our political team in iowa, edo kyiv and robert costa and major garrett and amy walter is her with me in studio. ed, i wan to start with you. what is driving the decision of these republican voters in iowa? >> well, margaret, happy sunday to you. if you talk to trump voters, they reflect back the anger and the resentment, the desire for pay back that the former president continues to reflect

on the trail. most specially concerned about issues like border security, the future of immigration policy in this country and the cost of things, inflation, reflecting back that their concerned about gas prices even though they're starting to come down or to own a home or rent an apartment. ron desantis supporters agree with the views but in the back of their minds they know that trump can't win a general election. so they're looking for someone else that could do that. whether that could happen is the question for the florida governor. and i'm struck by nikki haley supporters. they're not angry. their concerned about the future of the world, concerned that the president is allowing things in ukraine and the middle east and asia to spiral out of concern -- out of control. they're concerned that washington is spending money. in a word their concerned about the chaos, which is the word she used so frequently as she did there in her conversation with tony and one that appears to be resonating in the last few hours. >> bob costa, i know you were in

court earlier tht week with mr. trump. and our polling shows those legal issues are a net positive for him with voters. is the trump campaign banking on that? >> margaret, good to be with you. usually in the closing stretch of the iowa caucus, there is an ideology debate inside of the republican party, a standoff over the future of gop. but instead we're seeing an explosion of grievance among trump supporters and in the high command of the trump campaign, they're playing to that. and when i spoke to president trump in recent days in lower manhattan, i said how do you see the campaign versus the courtroom and he said, bob, the campaign is the courtroom. he will keep making appearances and playing to his supporters a and saying he's with them and establishment against the enemy and he hopes will fuel his campaign in the coming weeks and if he makes it, to the general election. >> major garrett, you've covered a number of campaigns an the

adage from pundits is national security doesn't matter to voters but listen to something that donald trump was asked last night in iowa. >> the world is in chaos, what happened with yemen and the missile strikes last few days and ukraine and palestine. we don't know where the secretary of defense is right now. are we on the brink of world war 3? i think we're the closest that we've ever been. and this won't be a regular war. this is not army tanks running back and forth shooting each other. these are weapons of mass destruction. the likes of which nobody has ever seen. i've seen. i've seen them. and this is obliteration. this is not a world war like we are used to. world war i, ii, they were horrible. this is so much bigger than that. this is like annihilation. >> i've seen them. major garrett, it sounds like trump is saying i alone could

fix it. >> so i've been covering donald trump since 2015 and my conversations way back then reminded me of something that he's always possessed, a fear and a fascination about nuclear weapons and nuclear war. a constant obsession with him. how to avoid it. that is one part of the answer. it is a legitimate one. most american presidents have felt that as well. but trump is fearful of it. that is one of the reasons he began the negotiations with kim jong-un, though unsuccessful. but this is a larger context in american political life. are you anxious about the future and do you believe a reelect president biden will be strong enough to handle an unstable world. and trump is answering that. no, he won't. you may not like me, but i'm strong and vigorous, that is his answer. >> it is chilling to hear some of the language that we're talking about being normalized on the campaign trail.

you said earlier this week, it is kind of hard to get excited about iowa and in a contest where the front-runner is ahead by just so much. is this just a glide path to donald trump securing the nomination of the party? >> well given the numbers that you all put out today, it sure looks that way. and every poll that we've seen out of iowa suggests that as well. with the one road bump in the way being new hampshire. in part because the new hampshire electorate looks so different from iowa and then from the next state that has significant primary which is south carolina. there you have, in those two states, more evangelical, more conservative republicans, new hampshire, more independent voters. that is the nikki haley voter, right there. in new hampshire. so you could see her do well in a state like new hampshire. but nthat is not going to give her the momentum to go into a place like south carolina. that is going to look much more like what we're seeing in iowa. >> despite it being her home

state. >> despite it being her home state. it is still where donald trump has a great, deep well of support and i think that the fascinating thing, when you look back, thinking about where we were at this point in 2020, and the debate on the democratic side was all about who could beat donald trump. >> right. >> and that is how, even though he lost the first couple of contests, joe biden was able to come back and win because he was seen as the most electable. it is very clear who the most electable candidate is in every poll, not just the cbs poll and that is nikki haley. and that has done her no good. in part because republican base believes that trump is going to win anyway. that he won the last time around. and when it is that close, which it was in 2020, it is just going to take a few thousand more votes to put it in trump's direction. >> ed, you cover the biden white house, does the biden campaign believe they have a problem? >> not yet, necessarily, margaret. they are polling just like about

everybody else believe that when all is said and done, former president trump will be the republican nominee. and they suggest that nike is more electable and ask the question, some of them do, well, okay, let's say she's the nominee, where is donald trump at that point? what is he doing to help her or potentially hurt her by raising concerns? he would splinter the party, they believe. ultimately, however, they are of the belief that most americans, despite those that watch us here on "face the nation," aren't paying attention to this yet. don't believe that donald trump will ultimately prevail. it looks like he might. and once that binary choice is before the american people again, the white house believes they'll be able to win it. but they caution. it is not about today. the polling today doesn't matter. it is next fall and on election day, they are only going to be concerned about going forward. >> major garrett, what would a second trump presidency look like? >> well, i guess the underlying part of your question is would it be a threat to democracy.

that is certainly something that the president -- president biden's campaign has leaned very much into in the last week. the bigger question for the country is, do we have a common definition of the future of democracy? and our polling and everyone else's polling but particularly our polling suggests that republicans are now defining democracy and its orientation to trump quite differently than the rest of the country. we talked about the rallying effect, the idea that prosecutors are being too vigorous with trump, whatever his underlying conduct was, repub republicans have been moving in that direction since january 6. their hardening around support of trump seeing his grievances and their grievances and when trump talks about retribution and doing something on behalf of himself, republicans are rallying to that. so in that context, margaret, democracy and all of our institutions seem to me and feel more threatened if there is a trump re-election. that is a con jjecture that lin

perfectly with our polling and everyone else's. >> so if this isn't a traditional campaign, what do we need to expect from the candidates in terms of what they're going to be able to do to secure the nomination? >> look, for trump to try to assert himself as someone who is comfortable with power and wanted a revival, back in 2016, many of his allies said he stumbled into the presidency and now he wants to shake up u.s. foreign policy and this election is shapening up to be a reckoning on american democracy and so many of trump's rivals at this point are just not ready to wade into those waters an triing to stick to their talking points and we'll see if that is enough for them to catch up. >> gentleman, thank you for joining us from iowa. amy walter, thank you for being here with us. "face the nation" will be back in a minute. stay with us.

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we're joined by west virginia senator joe manchin. good to have you here in person. you've known joe biden for a very long time and you've known donald trump. what does biden need to do to reverse this trend. >> well i think basically speaking to the american people on what has been accomplished. what they want accomplished. mistakes they've made and how they're going to correct them. people want to know the truth. if you make a mistake, say we tried something and it didn't work out. i think they moved too far to left. they need to come back to the center or center left. that is where america is. center left and center right. that is where most of the voters are and that is where the decisions on who is going to be elected, that is where gosit is going to happen. we're playing off the extremes. that is where people are worn out. enough is enough. >> and you said enough for you. you are leaving congress. >> right. i've tried everything i could. i'm on my 14th year and i've dorn everything. >> well you haven't tried everything. >> well we could not fix it in

washington. it wouldn't be fixed. because the business model. and that is what my daughter heather and i put together. and the reason is trying to give people hope in the middle that they have a voice and a place to go. >> you said you're trying to travel the country and sus out this moderate group. where do you direct them? do you have a nominee or an endorsement. >> this is not a short game. this is a long game. it is the character of the person you send to washington. who your voting for within your state or your district. and if that person has the character where they put the country before the party, they put thur service before themself, all of these type of things and people could detect that. but they have to get that person in the game. and right now with the gerrymandering, the way it is controlled, 380, 390 districts are already cooked. you've got the whole thing as far as primaries, how you could change them to a majority primary or an open primary if you will. it gets a person without the political backing or the

financing, but has the best character and the best ideas, gives them a chance. there is many ways it could be done but it has to be pushed from the outside. the business model in washington is too gooder to the democrat and republican party. too much money is coming in. >> you were trying to push president biden toward the middle. >> love to. >> you said he's been pulling so far to left as far as liberal, makes no sense at all. it is not the person we thought that would bring the country together. that is pretty harshly critical. are you going to vote for him? >> it is constructive criticism. let me make very clear. i love my country too much to vote for donald trump. i love my country too much and i think it would be very detrimental to my country. i want to make sure that people have a choice but also understanding that a person with a character so we have to see what happens on super tuesday. by then we'll know where we stand. >> by march?

>> we'll find out what going on. if there is a movement. if there is a movement for third party i think is what you're asking about. could that movement make a difference? i'm not going to be spoiler. never have been and never will be. but people want options or they want change. so you have to see what comes. and by then things will hopefully sort itself out. >> so you're not closing the door on running yourself? you get asked this questin all of the time. >> i'm going to do everything i can to save my country and i'll do whatever it takes and i'll help whoever and support whoever that i think could best help this country come back to the common sense, sensible middle which is center left and center right working together with a major majority. you can't govern from extremes. >> what do you think is the mistake the president is making. >> the border. >> there are talks in the senate to do just that. >> margaret, i agree with it. you were told we're going to

sty and get this done but you could get home and as soon as we come back, we'll have something. now this is a second week. this is the greatest crisis we're facing right now is the border and it is dangerous. and if congress cannot do its job because of the perfec is the enemy of the good, it is not perfect enough for the democrats or the republicans or gone too far or not far enough. the president has to step forward and declare an emergency. i don't believe there should be any more paroles at the border until we could get a handle on what is going on and it is just extremely bad right now. >> we have to take a break but i want to follow up on what you just said. because i think you just said the president needs to take executive action. so we'll finish that thought on the other side of this commercial break. stay with us. >> "face the nation" is brought to you by charles schwab. own your tomorrow. (♪♪)

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we'll be right back with a lot more "face the nation."

welcome back to "face the nation." we want to pick up where we left off. before the break you were saying you think the president needs to do more on the border. the president did say this weekend he wants to make major changes. he has negotiations going on. are you sayut