♪ amna: good evening. i'm amna nawaz. geoff: and i'm geoff bennett. on "the newshour tonight" -- israel kills militant group leaders in lebanon and syria as the u.s. secretary of state tries to stave off a broader conflict in the middle east. sec. blinken: it's clearly not in the interest of anyone -- israel, lebanon, hezbollah for that matter -- to see this, to see this escalate. amna: defense secretary austin is in the hospital. why the white house and the public weren't told about it for days. geoff: and hundreds of flights

are canceled after the alaska airlines blowout prompted federal authorities to ground the boeing 737 max 9 aircraft. ♪ >> major funding for "the pbs newshour" has been provided by -- ♪ the ongoing support of these individuals and institutions, and friends of "the newshour," including -- leonard and norma klorfine, and the judy and peter blume cobler or foundation. >> the william and flora hewlett foundation. for more than 50 years, advancing ideas and supporting institutions to promote a better world. at hewlett.org. and with the ongoing support of these individuals and institutions -- ♪

this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting and contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. geoff: welcome to "the newshour." as israel's offensive in gaza continues, a new front is heating up on the country's northern border. amna: israel and the lebanese militant group hezbollah have been trading fire, and this morning, an israeli strike killed one of hezbollah's high ranking members. all this as secretary of state antony blinken travels again to the region, hoping to keep the conflict from spreading. william brangham reports. william: while visiting his

troops along the northern border with lebanon, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu warned hezbollah that today's targeted killing could be just the beginning. pm netanyahu: we will do everything to restore security to the north. we gave hezbollah an example of what is happening to his friends in the south, this is what will happen here in the north. william: this comes as secretary of state anthony blinken makes his fourth visit to the region. as blinken left saudi arabia for israel, he spoke with reporters. sec. blinken: it's clearly not in the interest of anyone -- israel, lebanon, hezbollah for that matter -- to see this, to see this escalate and to see an actual conflict. william: president biden was in south carolina today when protesters interrupted him, calling for a ceasefire. biden was attending a memorial event for the 2015 charleston church shooting. pres. biden: i've been quietly working with the israeli

government to get them to reduce and significantly get out of gaza. william: israeli forces continue their operation in south and central gaza, but say they are done with major combat in the north. mr. regev: well, to paraphrase your famous wartime leader winston churchill, it might not be the end but it could be the beginning of the end, because we are seeing the destruction of hamas' military machine in the northern gaza strip. william: but as the war rages on, palestinians are left with nowhere to go but south, to rafah. even from the wreckage left by another israeli airstrike, food is too precious to leave behind. mohammed: we heard a big explosion and when we got there we found the car as you can see it. the car contains flour, tomatoes, and meat. it was all for daily sustenance. william: despite her mother's comfort, young layan abbid just can't take it anymore. layan: we are scared, we don't want the war, we are scared. they bombed the car and we are scared. we don't want the war.

william: yet more victims of war were rushed to the kuwaiti hospital in rafah, one of the few still partially operating. medical teams struggle to save those they can. the shadow of death won't leave. veteran palestinian journalist wael al dahdouh tried to stay brave for those of his loved ones still living. he held his son's hand, one last time. in october he lost his wife, his daughter, another son, and a grandson -- also killed by israeli airstrikes. yesterday, dahdouh's son hamza, also an al jazeera journalist like his father, was killed with another colleague, mustafa thoraya. an israeli drone strike hit their car. the idf said the intended target was a "terrorist" who piloted drones that threatened idf troops, and that two other "suspects were killed." but the committee to protect journalists has called for an

independent probe as both journalists were driving to an assignment in gaza. cpj has documented 79 journalists killed so far in the war, nearly all of them palestinians, in gaza. after he mourned and prayed over his most recent loss, dahdouh did what he's always done -- returned to work, reporting on a war that has stolen almost everything from him. wael: the world must see with their eyes and not with israel's eyes. it must listen and watch all that is happening to the palestinian people. what has hamza done to them and what has my family done to them? what have civilians in gaza strip done to them? they have not done anything. william: for "the pbs newshour," i'm william brangham. ♪ vanessa: i'm vanessa ruiz in for stephanie sy with "newshour

west." here are the latest headlines. 21 people were injured following an explosion this afternoon at a historic hotel in fort worth, texas. debris littered downtown streets outside the sandman signature hotel. rescue crews found people trapped in the basement. investigators believe natural gas caused the blast. a powerful winter storm walloped the country's mid-section, with some states expecting a foot of snow. blizzard warnings and other advisories were in effect across a swath of states from northeastern new mexico to northern michigan. in iowa, the snow could be followed by sub-zero cold for next monday's republican presidential caucuses. in ukraine, russia fired its biggest barrage of hypersonic and cruise missiles yet. more than 50 missiles and drones targeted a string of urban areas, from the eastern front to western parts of the country. in kharkiv, rescuers pulled one man from his destroyed home as a layer of snow began to pile up

on the rubble. the combined strikes killed at least 4 people across ukraine, and injured more than 30. pope francis called today for a worldwide ban on surrogate motherhood. in his annual speech on global threats to peace and humanity, the pontiff called surrogacy a threat to human dignity. pope francis: i deem deplorable the practice of so-called surrogate motherhood, based on the exploitation of the mother's material needs. a child is always a gift and never the basis of a commercial contract. i hope for an effort by the international community to prohibit this practice. vanessa: the pope has long opposed surrogacy. the practice is common in the u.s., but it's illegal in italy. the first u.s. moon landing attempt in 50 years now appears doomed after the robotic lander developed a critical fuel leak during flight. astrobotic technology's rocket had successfully launched from cape canaveral, florida, before

dawn today. the company says it's considering an alternative mission for the spacecraft. still to come on "the newshour" -- congress makes progress on a spending deal to avert a government shutdown. president biden makes a campaign stop at the south carolina church targeted by a racist mass shooting in 2015. tamara keith and amy walter analyze the presidential race one week before iowa. and as the ncaa football championship kicks off, a look at the changing landscape of college sports. >> this is "the pbs newshour" from weta studios in washington, and in the west from the walter cronkite school of journalism at arizona state university. amna: secretary of defense lloyd austin is still in the hospital but out of intensive care after spending at least 4 days there

last week for complications from an elective procedure performed before christmas. many questions about his illness remain, including why he waited days to inform president biden, or announce publicly that he was hospitalized. nick schifrin has been following this and is here with me. it is good to see you. so what did we learn from the pentagon today and how has president biden responded? nick: the pentagon said that austin is "recovering well" and in good spirits. john kirby expressed confidence in austin. but there are huge questions about that leadership, especially after the pentagon admitted there was a second stay in the hospital that austin did not disclose to the public or the president. let's go through the calendar according to officials i spoke to. on december 22, austin underwent an elective procedure and transferred his authorities temporarily to his deputy but did not inform her of why or

knowledge it publicly. that is hospital visit number one. on generate first, austin participated in a secure call with president biden and later that day experienced "extreme pain" and was taken to walter reed intensive care in an ambulance. no national security official was informed. even the next stay, january 2, he again transferred his authorities to the deputy secretary of defense. nobody told her why she was assuming responsibilities. austin's front office informed the chairman of the chief of staff but nobody called the president. that did not happen for another two days when national security advisor jake sullivan was informed and learned for the first time that austin was in the hospital. that was the day a u.s. drone strike killed the head of an iranian backed militia in baghdad. the next day, january 5, is when austin finally resumed his duties and only then exactly two

weeks after the initial procedure informed congress and releases a public statement. among the many questions that remain unanswered tonight, what was austin's initial procedure? was he ever incapacitated or unconscious? and why did the chief of staff or anyone, frankly, wait so long to call the national security council? amna: do we expect to get any answers to those questions? and also, how is the pentagon explaining the delay in notifying the national security advisor? nick: they are not. they say the chief of staff had the flu, although that is not the excuse. they admit they did not communicate the way they should have. today, the spokesman for the defense department fell on his sword basically. he admitted that last tuesday he knew about the hospitalization but did not disclose it during a thursday briefing because he did not have enough details. he said this today in a gaggle

with reporters -- "i should have tried to learn more and pressed for an earlier public acknowledgment," then added later, "i did not feel i was at liberty to disclose that information." that is not sitting well with congress. even democrats are expressing concern. this is from senator susan collins, the vice chairman of the senate appropriations committee. she has been an ally of the pentagon. she said, "it is and explicable the secretaries in addition remain shrouded in secrecy. he must be forthcoming about the nature of his illness and ability to do his job." amna: there are still so many unanswered questions. why is all of this important to understand what happened? nick: every cabin official is expected to call if he's gonna be in able to do his job. the secretary of defense is the second in the military chain of command behind only president biden, and is expected to be accessible to the president even in the most dire national security situation.

take a listen to this columbia law professor, who is a former nsc state and dod official. >> this is dangerous for several reasons. the president may need advice, military or defense policy advice on short notice. we have military forces engaged in active operations under threat. in some cases under attack. finally, you never know whether there might be some urgent and unexpected crisis for which a secretary or acting secretary is needed immediately. there absolutely has to be a review. this is a terrible and scary break down at the top of the pentagon. nick: the pentagon promises to do that review and insists there was no break of continuity of military operations. and despite the political criticism, the pentagon says austin has no plans to resign and the white house has no plans to ask for it. amna: we know you will keep looking for answers. great reporting as always.

nick: thank you so much. ♪ geoff: investigators say a key piece of the plane that blew off an alaska airlines flight has been recovered. a teacher near portland, oregon found the so-called door plug in his backyard and authorities hope it will help them figure out what went wrong. the accident that happened at 16,000 feet in the air has sparked new concerns about aircraft maker boeing. our aviation correspondent miles o'brien has the latest. miles: investigators from the national transportation safety board were in portland to try to determine what caused the fuselage blowout on the alaska airlines jetliner. it's the latest in a string of setbacks to plague boeing's 737 max aircraft. friday's incident affected a plug covering an unused exit door. passenger video showed the gaping hole in the side of the

plane. the rapid decompression caused the cockpit door to fly open. headrests ripped off seats. the two seats next to the panel that blew out were unoccupied. none of the 171 passengers or six crew members were seriously hurt. emma vu was one of those passengers. emma: i just feel the plane drop. and it wasn't like any other turbulence just because the masks came down too. so that's when i knew, like, oh, gosh, this is something way different. and yeah, i started freaking out. miles: the alaska airlines flight took off from portland shortly after 5:00 p.m. friday en route to ontario, california. the panel blew off about six minutes into the flight, as the plane was at an altitude of 16,000 feet. the plane returned to portland, making an emergency landing about 13 minutes after the blowout. jennifer homendy chairs the national transportation safety board. chair homendy: it was described

as chaos, very loud. between the air and, everything going on around them. and it was very violent, when the rapid decompression in the door was expelled, out of the plane. miles: the federal aviation administration quickly grounded boeing 737 max 9 jets with the same panel to undergo safety checks, forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. the ntsb said the jetliner that suffered the blowout was not being used for flights to hawaii after a warning light that could have indicated a pressurization issue lit up on three separate flights. they acknowledged the light may be unrelated to friday's incident. all this comes after problems with the 737 max's mcas safety systems led to deadly crashes of

the planes in indonesia and ethiopia back in 2018 and 2019. that issue grounded the max jets for nearly two years. the airlines that fly the 737 max 9 are now actively inspecting those plug doors to see what might have gone wrong. the associated press is reporting that united has found some loose bolts already. so we will be watching closely. geoff: we know pilots reported pressurization warning lights on three previous flights made by these specific aircraft involved in the incident. there is no known connection between that problem and the issue with the midair blowout, at least not yet. how is the investigation unfolding? miles: that's something we will be looking at. it could be coincidental or very relevant. imagine a scenario where there was some sort of slow leak that might have given the indication

of a pressurization problem in the flight deck. what's interesting is the lights came on in some cases while the aircraft was taxiing on the ground. i don't know how much credence to put into that right now. let's pin that on the bulletin board for now. geoff: the ntsb release these images of the recovered door plug. help us understand what it does and why some models have it and some don't. miles: the 737 max 9 is a little bit bigger than the max 8, which we've talked about so much in recent years. it can have 230 seats in it, and some low-cost airlines cram in that many. if you have 189 seats or less you don't need those exit doors because you don't need to get as many people out in 90 seconds, so they plug them. that's what happened here, the doors were caps off.

geoff: there's another curious or troubling detail, the ntsb said there was no data available on the cockpit voice recorder because it was not retrieved within two hours. that's the point at which recording restarts and overwrites the previous data. first of all, how can that happen, and what could it have offered investigators if they were able to hear what was on it? miles: the airline industry should be a little embarrassed about all of this. the two hour loop dates back to the days of tape when they could only store so much on these cockpit voice recorders. we are in an era where you have virtually unlimited capability to record that information. in order to stop it from according, you have to pull a circuit breaker and nobody bothered to do that so it got recorded back over. it is high time the national transportation safety board has been asking for years, that the amount of time on that loop, the

amount captured exceed 24 hours, actually 25 hours. the airlines have been slow to adopt this. geoff: we know this incident happened at 16,000 feet, roughly three miles above oregon. how much of a factor that that have in safety and have things been -- and what have things been different had they been at a higher elevation? miles: absolutely. the pressure differential between inside and outside at 16,000 feet is about two pounds per square inch and it is much greater at 36,000 feet. the amount of pressure on the door up there would be in excess of 50,000 pounds. much more explosive. and at that altitude, the useful consciousness where the passengers would only have 10 seconds. it would be much more dramatic, and a situation possibly where things did not come out as well. a silver lining that it happened

at a relatively low altitude. geoff: this is another black eye for boeing, that has seen a string of incidents that has resulted in tragedies, groundings, concerns about safety. how are they responding? miles: just a simple paper statement saying they think safety is a top priority and they are cooperating with all investigating authorities. the company has announced a town hall to presumably discuss some of these issues but there is a long string of issues here, which may on the surface seem like they are not connected but you have to look at the big picture and wonder why this happens repeatedly. there are clearly questions about its commitment to detail and safety at this point. geoff: alaska and united airlines have a number of these in their fleet and they canceled over 300 flights today because of the max grounding. how long until these claims are

back in the air or should they be? miles: the inspections are fairly straightforward. we heard about what united is finding. we heard about several bolts not tightened properly. i don't think there's any fundamental design flaw, if the bolts were not tightened, they can be tightened properly, i think we are all safe to get on board these aircraft. geoff: miles, think -- thanks as always. miles: you're welcome. ♪ geoff: congressional leaders have reached a spending deal that could prevent a partial government shutdown later this month. our congressional correspondent lisa desjardins joins me now to break down the deal. lawmakers reached agreement on the overall spending level for the rest of the year. what is in the deal? lisa: it is called the top line and it is important to

understand what we are talking about. this is the funding that congress controls, called discretionary funding. really this is the business of government, the size of government. this has been such a painstaking debate especially for republicans who have wanted to cut the size of government. this is one reason kevin mccarthy lost his job, over these levels. they agreed to the spending levels about $1.7 trillion. here is what we are talking about. slightly more of that goes to defense than to nondefense. what does that mean? let's compare that to last year's levels. almost exactly the same. that is significant. our viewers probably noticed a bit of an increase for defense, about 4%. but that is significant because this is kind of stopping the growth of government in a way. we have not seen it in a long time. however it is not cutting back in the way house conservatives

want to see either. so this is a risk either way. now they have to figure out the details of which agencies get what percent of that money. geoff: given that dynamic, does this mean shutdown avoided? or is it too early to tell? lisa: it is too early to tell. there are still some troubling signs. the biggest one is the timing. let's look at the calendar and what they have to navigate. the first government shutdown deadline is january 19. that is just in 11 days. that is the deadline for these kind of agencies. on february 2, every other agency funding must be extended or else we will see shutdowns. what congress has to do before those deadlines is what house republicans have said they intend to do, write 12 different appropriations bills to get them through both chambers. by the way, that is something that has not happened in congress this century. they want to call regular order,

but right now it is hard to imagine how they are able to do that in the next two weeks. could there be a short-term bill? yes, there always could be, but house speaker mike johnson said he does not want to do this. we are at the point again where this will test the house speaker. i spoke with chip roy earlier today, he said he has major problems with this deal. how about democratic leadership in the senate? here is what leadership are had to say. senator schumer: both parties reached this agreement without resorting to the painful and draconian cuts that the hard right, particularly those in the freedom caucus, clamored for. lisa: yes, but again, that hard right, however you want to describe them, freedom caucus, really will be an issue in terms of getting the votes and pressure to try and figure out the deal and getting it through quickly. i think that first january 19 deadline will be hard to make. geoff: adding to all of this there are ongoing talks about border security and ukraine funding. where does that stand? lisa: so much important news.

today we saw again the senators trying to negotiate a border deal met in person. in the past few minutes one of the key senators, conservative james lankford of oklahoma, came out saying he does not think they will be able to write a deal this week. could we get an outline? maybe. but i spoke with chris murphy of connecticut today about it. it is clear it is so complicated. while they have closed out some portions they are still having problems on things like parole. it also ties up ukraine funding. that is a real problem. and some in the house say they they will not pass any spending deal until there is a border deal. so we are at a point that is really difficult to see a way forward. it might be really difficult for the country in the next few weeks. geoff: lisa desjardins tracking it all. thank you so much. lisa: you are welcome. ♪

amna: president biden delivered his second campaign speech of the year today at the mother emanuel ame church in south carolina. as laura barron-lopez explains, the president continues to warn about extremist threats to the nation's democracy. laura: speaking at the site where nine black churchgoers were murdered in charleston in 2015, president biden warned the same hate that motivated their killer still threatens the country. >> the word of god was pierced by bullets and rage. propelled not just by gunpowder but a poison. a poison that has for too long haunted this nation. what is that poison? white supremacy. it is a poison. laura: ja moore's sister, myra thompson, was one of the nine killed at the mother emanuel shooting. moore is a democratic state

representative in south carolina and joins me now. representative moore, thank you for being here. you were at the president's speech today as he remembered those killed by the white supremacists nearly nine years ago including your sister. what did you think of his remarks? rep. moore: at first i was deeply moved by the fact that a president thought it was so important to kickoff the election to come here. i thought the overall message was resolute and sobering. and i was appreciative that he came. laura: what has your experience been like you go to church now all these years since your sister was killed? rep. moore: it is difficult, to be honest with you. i still pray with my eyes open. it is a place where so many of us find as our sanctuary. for me it is a constant reminder of what evil looks like and

feels like. and the residual effects of white supremacy and domestic terrorism. laura: and you don't go to ame often, correct? you worship at a different church. what is it like when you visit ame now? rep. moore: yeah, the unfortunate reality is that i often times end up at mother emanuel in direct concert with talking about, or commemorating that devastating, fateful night. it is difficult for me every time i step into that church. it is something that over the past almost nine years i have struggled with. i would love to turn back the hands of time to before that terrible night and be able to find sanctuary at such a

historic place that has meant so much to so many people. today was a very challenging and difficult day for me to sit in that pew thinking about my sister and the eight other parishioners. laura: since the charleston shooting, mass shooters have killed people in pittsburgh and el paso and buffalo and all motivated by racism or anti-semitism. do you think white supremacist violence have gotten worst in the years since the shooting? rep. moore: what has gotten worse is donald trump as president. donald trump has given a hall pass for white supremacy. not that i am saying the former himself is a white supremacist. but what he has done is stoked those suppressed feelings and emotions out of so many americans that are these maga republicans. not just the aftermath of the shooting but the maturation of donald trump escalating.

-- donald trump going down the escalator. we have seen increasing white supremacy in the forefront. laura: do you think enough has been done locally or federally to address this type of violence? rep. moore: south carolina is one of two states that still does not have a hate crime bill. as a law. even after something so tragic happened to my sister. the other parishioners, one of whom was a pastor of the church. we haven't been able to do that. a lot more needs to be done when it comes to combating racism and so on and so forth. we need to do a lot more. so no, a lot more needs to be done. but i want to be clear. that is not because the biden administration has not tried. they have done a wonderful job of pushing forward individuals

and policies to change that. but you are talking about almost 400 years of discrimination. a country where the bedrock of the country was designed with a racist background. so three or four years is not going to change it. there's a lot of work to be done. laura: president biden warned of an attempt to erase history, be it january 6 or slavery. how much faith do you have that america can have an honest conversation about the same white supremacist violence that took your sister and that has killed other people since? rep. moore: one of the things that has inspired me over the past almost nine years is people's willingness to have these conversations about race. whereas before, people didn't feel like they had permission. but as you can imagine, i have conversations with strangers, with family members, with

colleagues, with so many people now, that people may have had predetermined feelings about race and didn't know how to explore it before. so yeah, i think for sure that is happening. but what i am most worried about is that what we have not seen is the end of white supremacy itself. it is one thing to talk about it and it is another thing to change it and we have a long way to go for that. laura: representative ja moore of south carolina, thank you for your time. rep. moore: thank you for covering this story. ♪ amna: the final countdown to iowa has begun. with just a week to go before the gop's first contest of the pony 24 election cycle,

republican candidates are crisscrossing the first in the nation caucus state, hoping to court a key voting bloc. ♪ freezing temperatures didn't slow down sunday services at the first church of god in des moines, where pastor charles hundley delivered a message of faith and politics. >> it doesn't matter, lord, what our opinion is, it's really what's your opinion that matters. but you've given us the privilege of being able to exercise a beautiful gift. the gift to vote. amna: in recent election cycles, nearly two-thirds of republican caucus-goers have been evangelical christians. and they could once again be critical to determining who wins the gop contest next week. in a recent des moines register/nbc news/iowa poll, former president donald trump was their overwhelming favorite, garnering support from more than 50% of republican evangelicals, 25 points ahead of florida

governor ron desantis. >> i am going to be for trump all the way, that's just me. amna: trump's support was on display in church yesterday, where cindy carey drew a distinction between trump's personal life and his political positions. >> i wouldn't vote for him as my pastor. i want him to lead our nation back to that city on a hill, that shining city on a hill. he supports life. he is somebody who loves america. he wants us to have closed borders so we can be a nation. amna: trump took up that message as he barnstormed iowa over the weekend, hitting the biden administration for record border crossings last month. >> millions of illegal aliens are invading from all over the world are invading us like a military invasion. amna: and despite his lead, he turned his ire towards his top rivals. >> nikki would sell you out just like she sold me out. amna: just weeks after former south carolina governor nikki haley was criticized for not

mentioning slavery as the cause of the civil war, trump's own comments drew backlash. >> the civil war was so fascinating, so horrible. so many mistakes were made. see, there was something i think could have been negotiated, to be honest with you. >> the sky is clearing up. it's almost there. but what an important day it's going to be. amna: haley also campaigned in iowa as she battles with desantis to be the trump alternative, and she dismissed trump's attacks on the campaign trail and airwaves. >> and god bless president trump. he's been on a temper tantrum every day about me talking about things and everything he's saying is not true. amna: desantis made his own closing pitch over the weekend. >> the choice on the 15th is clear. uh, donald trump is running for his issues. nikki haley is running for her donors' issues. i'm running for your issues and your family's issues. and to turn this country around. amna: but trump continued his campaign of grievance politics, telling voters that he's fighting on their behalf.

>> they want to silence me because i will never let them silence you. and in the end, they're not after me. they're after you. i just happened to be standing in their way. amna: it's that message that resonates with many of the critical evangelical voters, like ron betts, who is planning to support trump next week. >> i just think he exemplifies everything that jesus would do if he was here. in fact, i think they are doing the same thing they did to jesus on the cross. amna: for analysis of this final week of the iowa campaign, we turn to our politics monday team. that's amy walter of the cook political report with amy walter. and tamara keith of npr. great to see you both. let's look at where the landscape is right now for the candidates in iowa as we talked about this last week. the latest poll shows mr. trump with a commanding lead, 51% of likely gop caucus-goers.

19% for mr. desantis, 16% for nikki haley. amy, we talk a lot about desantis and haley and what is at stake for them. what is a win look like for them in iowa? amy: at this point it doesn't look like an actual win. not only is trump ahead by at about 30 points in every poll, from the last few weeks, but if he won by that margin it would be the biggest margin that any competitive republican caucus winter has come out of iowa with. 50% would also be a statement. because for weeks -- not for weeks, for the entire campaign, his rivals have made the case that there is a base of support for donald trump but there is a bigger base of support for people who are willing to look beyond donald trump. whether they are truly voters on

e republican side who don't want to see donald trump or people who are ready to turn the page even though they do like donald trump. with 50% of the vote, that would close the door on that. fox who i talked to in the state, they see a real fight for second place. that nikki haley has had a great deal of momentum. we have not seen polls since the holidays so it is unclear if some of the back-and-forth is having an impact. but i think that for ron desantis, he has the most at stake because he has the endorsements and he has banked his entire campaign on doing well in iowa. losing, whether it is by 10 or 30 points, it is hard to turn that into a win. amna: is this essential for ron desantis? tamara: he has gone to all 99 counties. he has moved most of his campaign operation to iowa. he came in with such incredibly high expectations. that if he then comes in third place in iowa, that is existential.

that is a major problem for his campaign. he had a press call with reporters today and he said i have plans for things i am going to be doing in new hampshire, i have events in south carolina, nevada. he has plans. but plans can change. absolutely plans can change if it does not go well for him. amy: he is not investing money in the way the haley campaign is. amna: a key part of any campaign. the huge lead we see mr. trump having is in large part due to this key bloc we were talking about in iowa, the white evangelicals in the state. it has not always been that way. in 2016, it was about 22% of evangelicals who said they would support him. it is now 51%. how did he get that kind of support? tamara: in 2016 he was talking about two corinthians and it sounded like not a bible verse, but a joke about a bar.

and now he is the person who put on the supreme court a conservative majority that overturned roe v. wade and gave evangelical christians the dobbs decision. what more does he need to do? also absolutely as that one voter said, they are not looking for him to be their pastor. but part of christianity is forgiveness. and i think that a lot of his personal sins have been forgiven by these voters. amy: it's also that when we talk about being evangelical, for many folks who describe themselves as evangelical, it is less about the religious views than the political views. being white evangelical and a supporter of trump have now become synonymous. so yes, i do think the dobb's case and delivering on some of those issues matters a lot. but it is also the fact that

they see that their identity and cultural identity, someone who is fighting for them, you talked in the piece about grievance politics, the sense that this is a group of people who are under siege by the left and the only person standing up for them is donald trump. amna: that is a message that resonates. among the other messages that resonate that we have seen from mr. trump, a strain of revisionist history in his closing messages before iowa. not just three years ago and january 6 in suresh and, where he calls the people who carried out the violent attacks patriots. but going back to the civil war. we are now talking about the root cause of the civil war, somehow that is up for debate. you heard president biden reference this explicitly in his speech in south carolina today. take a listen to what he said. >> let me be clear for those who don't seem to know, slavery was the cause of the civil war. there is no negotiation about that.

now we're living in an era of a second lost cause. once again there's some in this country trying, trying to turn a loss into a lie. amna: this conversation is not about policy or politics. we are talking about whose version of history you believe. amy: that is exactly right and that is the through-line the president was trying to make. debate about the civil war, it seemed like that had been delegated many years ago, or the fight was over many years ago, to now. his point being, if you are going to lie about the cause of the civil war, calling it the noble cause, and lie about the election results, lie about january 6, those things share one thing in common, especially for black voters -- they are denying your voice. what the president was saying from the pulpit today was when he says that the election was

stolen, what donald trump is telling you, the voters in these pulpits, many of whom saw your parents and grandparents denied the right to vote, he's saying your voice and your vote does not matter. amna: that is why we hear this as a centerpiece of his campaign, not his record. tamara: he is going to talk about his record, don't worry, we are going to hear about bidenomics. however, his campaign is very much centered on what america do you want? what america do you want to see? and he's making an argument that donald trump and other republicans, the maga republicans as he calls them, that they have a different vision of america and that it is anti-democratic. and so that is very clearly becoming a centerpiece of president biden's campaign. he is drawing a through-line from charlottesville and what happened at mother emanuel right

through to january 6 saying it is about extremism and political violence and that is not something america should stand for. and there is some indication that actually a lot of americans agree with that. and he is trying to build a coalition of people who don't want the history of january 6 revised. they may not necessarily what the policies he is selling. and that is what he is trying to thread. and also worth noting that he went to south carolina, the state that holds the first democratic primary. it is all about black voters, which are a group of voters he needs in his base. and that he has struggled with somewhat, although you would not know it from the call and response at mother emanuel. amna: caucuses are different than showing up to vote or rallies. it is all about who turns up on the day. what is the one thing you are watching for? tamara: the weather is

important. it is supposed to be very cold there. i know i un's are hardy -- iowans are hardy, but the latest poll, people most committed to showing up and voting are ron desantis supporters. this could matter in terms of who comes in second, folks willing to brave the really cold weather. tamara: i am watching the ground game and what they do to get people to turn out in that very cold weather. i am also watching, let's say trump does win, which by all indications he will. does he win by a lot, or by a small enough margin that it gives nikki haley and ron desantis some jet fumes to go on? amna: we will know in a week. thank you both. ♪ college football will have a new national champion tonight after michigan takes on washington in

houston. both are undefeated and aiming to win their first national title since the 1990's. but as stephanie sy explains, this championship game is the end of an era for college football with major changes coming next year. stephanie: starting next year the college football playoffs will expand substantially, allowing a dozen teams to compete for the title. and that is just one of the dramatic changes affecting what has become an american pastime. just before the bowl season began, the ncaa president charlie baker unveiled a new proposal that would impact all college sports. it would allow division i schools to pay athletes directly for the first time. colleges that participated would have to set aside a minimum of $30,000 per athlete for at least half of all its athletes. schools also could have direct agreements with athletes over their name, image, and likeness. pat is covering all of this, a

senior writer for sports illustrated and joins us from houston. i am reminded about something deion sanders said recently about the conference realignments in college football. he said all of this is about a bag and everyone is chasing that bag. how does this new proposal by charlie baker affect the chase for the moneybag? pat: i think it's an acknowledgment that the bag is the game, that is what is going on. if the ncaa is going to stay ahead of the lawsuits that are hounding them and trying to basically force an employee/employer relationship, if they want to maintain any kind of antitrust exemption, if they want to get congress to help maintain college sports as remotely what we are used to, i think they see this as a necessary step that they have to give some proceeds directly to the athletes. you cannot cloak it in other means or fashions but literally

just hand them the money. stephanie: for all the reasons you just described, this is just the beginning. it is very complex. if schools were allowed eventually to directly pay athletes, would the cash flow only to the athletes who play large revenue-generating sports like football, or does it increase the opportunities for good athletes that might not get the big endorsement money? pat: that still remains to be seen to a degree, but there are certainly concerns about where the money would go. we will start to learn more at the ncaa convention here in the coming days where we are going to get maybe a little more detail on proposals or counterproposals that have been made in this area. but we are talking about a minimum of $30,000 for half of a school's athletes. who is that half? who gets that? we can rest assure the football players are going to get theirs, the men's basketball players will almost assuredly get theirs. they will be a title ix component to this where women

athletes will get theirs, some of them. but then who doesn't? where is that line drawn? if you are an olympic sport, a men's olympic sport, you are probably thinking you are going to have a hard time getting that money. the other piece of this as we are talking about a minimum of $30,000. a lot of them are going to pay a lot more than that. we are talking $6 million to $12 million a year which may schools would have to dget for, and that will wean some schools out of competition for the biggest prizes. stephanie: nick sabin, alabama's head coach, has described college football as heading in a semi pro direction already. he has had a lot to say about all of this. but does charlie baker's proposal show that college sports are bound to become a completely free market enterprise? pat: it is another step in that direction. the question is the ncaa, as they often do with rules, they

are hoping to thread a needle which keeps it from being flat-out professional sports, that keeps athletes from being employees, that keeps the ncaa's antitrust status. i don't know whether they are going to be able to pull this off. there are lawsuits pending right now that could result in billions of dollars of damages against ncaa schools. and so they are kind of backed into a corner here. they are trying to figure out a way to keep college sports as part of campus and higher education, but it gets harder and harder with each erosion of the ncaa's stance and a lot of these things. this is the next step and it is a strategic retreat, i guess you could say, towards something that may be sustainable. but they will need help from congress, need to win battles in court, or get people to drop some lawsuits. stephanie: does the proposal have legs? pat: it does, absolutely. we are going to hear

counterproposals and people that will probably try to poke some holes in this thing. and at least to say let's find a better way. charlie baker's proposal, while certainly bold and a big step forward and something that needed to happen, it is very light on details. and the devil has always been in the details of trying to work out something for hundreds if not thousands of colleges at multiple different levels. one key part of this proposal is potentially a super division of schools that maybe is just 50, 60, 80 schools, and they can be further deregulated in what they can give to athletes in terms of what they can afford. the problem there is it further widens the gulf in things people like to see all comers, so to speak. a 120 school division of major college football. a 350 school division of major college basketball, which makes

the tournament so much fun. do we eventually move the big dogs so far away that there is no relation with those other schools? that is where they are trying to find the line. stephanie: i cannot let a senior sports illustrated writer go without getting his take on the championship game coming up in houston. pat, what will you be looking out in this matchup between washington and michigan? pat: should be a great matchup. really looking forward to it, the passing ability in the receivers, a lot of talent, the brute force and blunt force of michigan and their style of play. michigan has been under the microscope with some controversy with ncaa rules this year. they have handled it. we have two 14-0 teams playing. amna: that is the newshour for

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