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tv   BBC News The Context  PBS  January 11, 2024 5:00pm-5:31pm PST

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♪ ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program
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is provided by... narrator: pediatric surgeon. volunteer. topiary artist. a raymond james financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life wl planned. brook: these are people who are trying to change the world. startups have this energy that energizes me. i'm thriving by helping others everyday. people who know, know bdo. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news". >> hello, i'm christ. this is "the context." >> ships that have nothing to do with this are being attacked.
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there is a u.s.-led task force down there called operation prosperity guardian that is defending shipping. >> we will do what we have to do to protect that shipping and protect our sailors. >> we cannot have a situation where a major ability to move goods around the world is being cut off by terrorist folks. ♪ christian: red alert in the red sea. rishi sunak is holding a full cabinet call tonight as the u.k. and the united states prepared to launch military strikes against to the rebels in yemen -- houthi rebels in yemen. the hearings begin at the hague in a case where israel is accused of genocide. also tonight, the genetic sequencing of tumors which could
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yid a new cancer treatments, if you are seen in time. over a third of cancer patients here waiting more than two months of referral and treatment. we will examine what that means. and as usual on a thursday, a deep dive into artificial intelligence with ai decoded. very good evening. we are told rishi sunak is holding a full cabinet meeting as we go to air, as the u.k. and united states prepared to launch military strikes against the houthi rebels in yemen. grant shops suggested yesterday that military action was imminent after u.s. and u.k. destroyers in the red sea shot down a barrage of drones and missiles that were launched by the iran-backed group. the government held an emergency cobra meeting thisorning along with a meeting of national security council. in washington, the national security spokesperson there, john kirby, said it cannot be allowed to continue. >> are there any red lines are
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steps of the u.s. would not take or would not be a part of that you can outline? >> no. >> do those red exist or do you not -- >> i don't think it is helpful from the podium to speculate about any potential future military options one way or another that the commander-in-chief is weighing or has weighed. we take seriously the responsibility to protect our ships and sailors at sea, as well as the responsibility to protect the flow of international commerce. you talked to leon brainard about how important that waterway is, vital. i would add we are not the only one. other nations are joining us in that effort. some 20 plus nations are joining in operation prosperity guardian. these attacks have to stop. we will do what we have to do to protect that shipping, our sailors. christian: two governments have accused iran of being behind the attacks by providing the eyes and ears for the houthi missions. today, 50 miles off the coast of
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oman, iran seized an oil tanker, the st nikolas, wearing military uniforms and black masks. two different areas of action 2000 miles apart but tightly connected. the first job is to deal with the houthis. the former chief of the admiral west told the bbc that all options are on the table. >> my advice, having made a morning -- and i have not seen how that morning was made and to whom -- if they continue attacks, there will be a response. there should be a very heavy reonse and focused because there is nothing worse than threatening someone with things and then not doing it. it just becomes worse and worse. we cannot allow the houthis to just continue messi with shipping. some 14% of shipping going through the red sea with no response to it. christian: we will get reaction
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from our political editor chris mason who is with us at westminster. let's start with our security correspondent frank gardner in studio. admiral west said they were morning to who these for several weeks now. in terms of the strategy and planning, what will they have been waiting up? frank: this is a heck of a dilemma for the west here because the ardennes diff they do, damped if they don't. all of these warnings were meant to scare the houthi's into stopping their attacks. that hasn't worked. if they don't do anything, the west looks weak. what is the point of having a u.s.-let armada in the red sea with missile destroyers if it doesn't do anything. if they do hit the houthi positions, which is imminent, i think, then there is the risk that this will be portrayed throughout the middle east as the u.s. and britaiand their allies joining in the gaza war on israel's side.
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it will be portrayed as such, people will die almost suddenly, they will be called martyrs, it will play domestically well at home. the risk for govements in the region is this could generate popular unrest and could ignite and metastasize the entire middle east tension into something bigger than it was. that is why they been hesitatin% up until now. christian: can we talk about the arab countries, how they will view this. secretary blinken has been in cairo, rishi sunak held a call with the jeppesen president. they are crucial because the ships go through the suez canal. what will the egyptians make of it first of all? frank: most of the arab countries in the region, the governments cannot stand the houthis. saudi arabia, the neighbor to the north, has spent seven years fighti a war against them. houthis illegally took over most of yemen in 2014, backed by iran. they have since supplied
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themselves with some pretty powerful weaponry, missiles, drones, cruise missiles which are now threatening shipping. it is why we are having this conversation because they have punched beyondhe borders of their country, which is the poorest arab nation, but they are being supported and supplied by iran, and they are positioning themselves as champions of the palestinian cause which is playing well home and across the middle east. which is why this is so dangerous for the west. christian: they are not state actors, but they have been taking on saudi arabia for years now. what sort of things with the alliance be focusing on? frank: you are talking about the targeting. that would be drawn up by central command, that part that deals with the middle east. their headquarters in tampa, florida, which have drawn up a number of target sets ranging from minimal casualties -- and it is most likely that a strike
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goes in, it will be very limited, they will be looking to do the limited amount of damage in terms of human casualties. th'll be looking to destroy boats, weapon supplies, missiles, spare parts, warehouses. if the houthis persist in their attacks, i would expect them to move on to command and control centers, something bigger. there will be a calculated, greeted response. christian: just a final word on iran in respect to the ships that have been taken today. i understand this ship had been the subject of sanctions enforcement operations. was this a tit-for-tat operation? frank: it was exactly that, yes. this ship, which was carrying 145,000 tons of fuel oil, crude oil from basra on the way to turkey, the same ship was impounded last year by the u.s.
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carrying a million barrels of oil because the u.s. accused ship and iran of smuggling oil to china against sanctions. this is a tit-for-tat by iran, they say judicial decision. i don't think the u.s. will want to deal with this right now. the ship is currently in an iranian port. the crew is filipino, one greek. they have pa of that problem. right now the immediate problem is the houthis in the red sea which is driving up commodity prices, forcing ships to travel all around africa, adding 10 days to the trip, adding $2 million each time. they have to deal with it one way or the other. christian: that brings us to the politics. thank you. let's bring in chris mason who has been waiting for us. what are you hearing tonight about the plans that are being set out? chris: let me talk you through what we know in factual terms
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and what i think is reasonable to reduce what we know factually. my understanding is around now, in the last 20 minutes or so, the prime minister rishi sunak held a conference call for his cabinets. there was a briefing relating to the prospect, the imminent prospect of the u.k. being involved in a military response, military strikes against the houthis. what is happening in the last couple of minutes as we were listening to frank, other senior parliamentarians are being called in to government to be briefed. the speaker of the house of commons, sir lindsay hoyle, also keir starmer, john healy, shadow defense secretary also being called in. what can be read into this? we can read into this that it is
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convention and entirely within the prerogative of the british government to embark upon military action that it deems to be necessary and should happen imminently without consulting parliament. but it has become convention to often do that. in what we are seeing this evening, it would appear, a desire on the u.k. government's part -- and here i'm extrapolating a bit based on the facts as we know them -- that they want to breathe the leader of the opposition, brief speaker of the house and comments in lieu of doing anything more substantial with parliament prior to what looks like the prospect of some sort of imminent strike. as i say, you heard i assembly of the facts, and from that, an extension into where we might be heading on the basis of the choreography we are seeing play out at westminster in the last hour. christian: frank touched on the problem for commercial shipping,
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going around africa, more expensive for insurance, and the bank of england yesterday mentioned possibly it could cause a new inflationary shock to our economies, just at the very time that the prime minister is starting to point to inflation coming down. chris: i think the bigger picture here, in a u.k. context, is one where we have seen first the pandemic, then the war in ukraine, then the israel-gaza conflict, and then the prospect, fear of an escalation into a wider regional conflict. we have already seen the concerns and the pressures commercial shipping in the red sea which has seen a good number of shipping operators diverged via a much more circuitous route, as you are referring to. the concern expressed by the
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governor of the bank of england and others, were things to escalate in the red sea, were we to see far more shipping having to go all the way around africa, that would obviously be a concern. what knocked on consequence there could be -- and again extrapolating here, but i don't think unreasonable extrapolation around the potential for oil prices, for instance. there is clearly concern about the ramifications of could have. let's return to the here and now , christian, and what we kn. you were touching on it a few moments ago with frank. the defense secretary cranhafts -- grant schapps, when asked about the potential military strikes who the targets to quote "watch this space" which implies that something
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might be relatively imminent. politicians, particularly defense secretary's, are schooled in being careful on what they utter out loud, and ducking questions that they would rather not engage with. grant schapps did engage with that, said out loud what was potentially a imminent prospect. tonight there is the beginnings of evidence that that has been fast forwarded and could come very soon. christian: quickly in terms of protocol, chris, the u.s. is the bigger power here, they will lead, the pentagon will take decisions, but there is a slight fly in the ointment. secretary of defense lloyd austin has been out of action being treated for prostate cancer in washington. is there any suggestion, given we have been talking about this for several days, that may have held things up, as it held up discussion between the countries? chris: every prospect that it could have contributed to it.
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what i'm struck now by is what we are seeing, what i am hearing out from sources here in westminster, appeared to be at this stage more advanced than the equivalent in washington. the conversation will be very live between washington and london, t as things stand, as we are here in the evening time in the u.k., the emerging picture from here, emerging choreography as we can see it, suggests that the u.k. is that bit further advanced. speaking to colleagues in washington, that seems to match with their interpretation of what they are seeing there. let's see how the coming hours play out. crucially, what we hear from those opposition voices and others as they emerge from their meeting, indeed from other government sources once that cabinet meeting concludes, which appears it has, to see what happens and when.
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but meetings like this, let's be absolutely clear, emergency cabinet conference calls followed by the summoning of senior opposition leaders and the spear of the house of commons have been very, very rarely indeed and are usually prior to the expectation that the government might be willing to take military action relatively soon. that doesn't mean it will, but it means that -- in scenarios like this, expected to soon. christian: we will let you go away and get reaction from it. thank you for your time. things seem to be moving quicker on this side th they are in the states, but we are watching closely a pentagon briefing which is ongoing right now. of course, if we get any further details from them, we will bring that to you. around the world and across the u.k., you are watching bbc news. let's take a look at some of the other stories making news in the u.k..
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petrol prices have fallen to the lowest level since october 2021. the average price for a leader of fuel doubled a one pound .40 since october 2021. the u.k. government is playing the biggest expansion of its nuclear power industry in 70 years. the plant would quadruple supplies by 2050, which the government claims would lower bills and improve energy security. nuclear power currently provides about 15% of the uk's electricity but many of the country's aging reactors are due to be decommissioned over the next decade. researchers at oxford university say the death rate among pregnant women and new mothers arose during the pandemic to its highest level in nearly two decades. the department of health said last year nhs england published a three-year plan to make maternity and neonatal care safer. blood clots in the veins was the most common cause of death with heart disease and poor mental health also common.
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you are watching bbc new a team of lawyers representing the south african government has presented evidence to the united nations highest court today alleging that israel's offensive in gaza amounts to genocides. on the fst of two dates of hearing at the international court of justice, south africa said israel's offense and since october has molished much of the gaza strip, killing more than 23,000 people, was decided to bring about the destruction of the population. >> the international community continues to fail the palestinian people despite the overt dehumanizing genocidal rhetoric by israel the government and military officials, matched by the israeli army's actions on the ground. christian: the case for the defense will be presented tomorrow. the israeli president isaac herzog has condemned the south african case as atrocious and preposterous.
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the united states has registered its opposition to the case. in a press briefing last week, the national security spokesperson john kirby called south africa's submission, meritless, counterproductive, and completely without any basis. is it? or does south africa have a case? let's speak to a professor of international law at yale law school. thank you for being with us this evening. what did you make of south africa's presentation today? >> it was very powerful. they really put out a very careful case, laying out the details of the argument that they made first in a written application, over 80 pages, that lays out the case that there is in fact both genocide and incitement to genocide, and they mix dry legal argument with some visual elements to show the terrible situation that is taking place in gaza, and they
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really try to make the case, and i think made a powerful case that there is at least enough here for the court to order provisional measures. christian: what does israel have to do tomorrow in their defense? oona: they will have to show that there is not enough here for the court to determine that there is what lawyers will call a prima facie case. that there hasn't been enough to establish a possibility that there is in fact a violation of the genocide convention. for genocide, you have to not only establish there are genocidal acts taking place, but you also have to show specific intent. that is you have to show that those acts were taken with a specific intent to destroy a group -- here the palestinians -- in whole or in part. south africa laid out their case today explaining why they think that in fact this specific intent is met. i suspect we will see that be the target of the argument
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tomorrow from israel, suggesting there is no denying the fact that people have been killed, but they will argue this is a legitimate act of self-defense, response to an attack by hamas on israel, ongoing threat to civilians in israel, and that while there are doing everything they can, they will argue, they will do what they can to avoid civilian deaths. what they are doing is carrying out a legitimate military operation and there is no specific intent to carry out genocide. i imagine that will be the argument they make tomorrow. christian: certainly will watch developments. the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken held talks in cairo today about possible business swaps. around half of the hostages taken by hamas were released in november in exchange for palestinians hailed in israeli jails. since then, efforts to negotiate another run has failed. this week, secretary blinken
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met with families in tel aviv, assuring them that they were still the ministrations top priority. earlier today, the hostage families held an event at the gaza border equipped with loudspeakers to shout to their loved ones in the hopes of being heard. there are still 136 hostages being held, among them, carmel, a 39-year-old occupational therapist in tel aviv who was visiting her parents when the attack killed her mother. her cousin is with us tonight. thank you for coming on the program. tell me about carmel. have you muted yourself? >> can you hear me? good evening. this is my cousin carmel, she is 39 years old. she is an occupational therapist, a peaceloving person.
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we are really hopeful that we see her with us at home when there was the last cease-fire, but then it collapsed. that deal collapsed and she is still there. as we understand right now, there are crimes against humanity being committed right now on the hostages. we are talking sexual assault, torture, anything you can imagine being done on innocent people, held by a terrorist group. we are very worried about the fact that she is still there, really want her back home. once we get the hostages back home, this work and stop. christian: the tragedy of this is, she was on the final list which had seven names on it but it was rejected by the israeli government because they want to 10 more hostages and the fighting resumed. >> i am not sure this is the case. i am not sure if the israeli
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government was the one that didn't want to receive the offer or that part of the deal. we know that hamas did not comply with the terms of the deal at all in the first few days. they tried to explain that they don't have the women or anything. i don't see why we have to take the side of hamas all the time. what we see here is a terror organization that uses psychological warfare, psychological terror against us and told us israel rejected the offer. i don't believe it. christian: please don't think i am taking the role of hamas, i'm certainly not. i wanted to impress on the viewers really what carmel would be going through. i have seen the pictures of this tunnel network. she will know, i presume, that her mother is dead, but for three months has been underground, unable to grieve, in fear for her life. it is an intolerable position
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for any human being to be in. >> we understand that she knows that her mother is dead but doesn't know about anybody else in the family. she doesn't know about the fact that her brother survived or that her father survived. we hope that she can hear some news from us, knowing that we tried to do anything to get her back, but we cannot really be sure. we try not to think about what is happening to her, but how can you when you hear the testimonies, the facts about what is actually happening right now in gaza? you cannot not think about it. you have to make it stop. i have heard the talks about you calling it a prisoner swap between israel and hamas. it is not a prisoner swap because she is not a prisoner, she is a hostage. she is an innocent hostage. christian: quickly, there were some reporting -- she is a therapist, she does yoga. there are children still being held by hamas and reportedly she was doing yoga with the children
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being held. >> yes, she was with them, they were practicing yoga together. it was a way for her to keep strong for them, to keep them strong. i think we should all look at this and see the kinds of people that hamas is holding right now. it is not any kind of prisoners. it is just innocent people. it could be me or you there just the same. she was in the wrong place at the right time. she shouldn't be there in gaza. she should be with us. i don't think it is in israel-gaza conflict. it is a life and death conflict. you should be on the right side of this. be on the side of life. get them back home and then you can get the cease-fire. christian: i want to talk more but we need to say narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: financial services firm, raymond james. man: bdo. accountants and advisors.
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narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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