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is provided by... narrator: pediatric surgeon. volunteer. topiary artist. a raymonjames financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life well planned. brook: these are people who are trying to change the world. startups have this energy that energizes me. i'm thriving by helping others everyday. people who know, know bdo. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news". christian: hello, i'n fraser. this is "the context." >> you can't sit home.

if you are sick as a dog, you say, i have to go. even if you build and pass away, it is worth it. >> if there is anything other than politics that gets people talking a lot, it's the weather. it's about -25 celsius. the weather is something that may factor into the turnout. we have to see yet. >> with the caucuses do most importantly is reveal unexpected strengths and unexpected weaknesses among the array of presidential candidates. ♪ christian: republican voters in iowa will face record low temperatures when they arrive tonight at the caucus sites to begin choosing a presidential nominee for 2024. in the last poll, donald trump had a lead greater than the combined total of his four republican challengers. but how other those subzero

temperatures affect turnout? we have a stellar panel tonight in d.c., ryan lanza, who ran donald trump's transition team in 2016, our panel of democratic strategists met marsh, and the senior advisor for republicans on the house oversight committee, who switched to the democrats during the trump era. very good evening. on pure numbers, the iowa caucuses don't have much of a role in determining who the next republican nominee will be. the state allocates just 40 delegates in the republican nominating contest. that is not even 2% of the delegates up for grabs. but that small total belies the outsized influence the state can have on u.s. presidential politics. 99 counties in rural iowa can make or break a presidential campaign. >> these caucuses are your

personal chance to score the ultimate victory over all of the liars, cheaters, thugs, perverts, france, creeps, freaks, and other nice people. if you want to save america from crooked joe biden, you must caucus tomorrow. the first step. you cannot sit home. if you are sick as a dog, you say, darling, i have to make it. even if you vote and pass away, it is worth it. >> nobody can predict what the electorate will look like tomorrow. you just cannot do it given the conditions, everything going on. the best thing for us to do is not to get caught up in that but to keep on doing what we are doing, turnout these folks. they are fired up and ready to go. they are fired up and ready to go. that is how you have a good night. >> i think president trump was the right president at the right

time. i agree with a lot of his policies. but, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him. you know i am right. chaos follows him. and we cannot be a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. christian: let's take a quick look at the final pull from the des moines register published this weekend. donald trump in a commanding position, just short of the 50% mark which tallies with many of the polls. more significant is that nikki haley, on the eve of the vote, finds herself in second place. that momentum continues to build. but the rest would appear to be fighting it out for second place unless those margins are different when the boat comes in around 2:00 in the morning local time. but these iowa voters will be participating in one of the coldest caucuses in decades. let me show you a live shot of the capitol building in des

moines. a bit of a feel for it. lead gray sky, streets filled with snow. when voting begins, they tell us it will feel like -40 degrees, -30 in des moines. 10 minutes in that and you get frostbite. i am glad to see that we are indoors in the warmth. looking forward to an exciting night tonight. i am saying that and yet all the anticipation that i normally feel for the iowa caucuses, it is different because trump has been so dominant. >> i think it is almost seen as a done deal, isn't it, that donald trump will win the iowa caucus. the des moines register poll which came out over the weekend, which usually gets it right, finds him 48%. if that does bear through, that is a record-breaking number.

that is what donald trump wants. he has got a very commanding lead. it is hard to see what could dent that. there are questions about if the weather will affect that, if it will benefit him or not. probably the story of the night is who finishes second. will it, ron desantis? ron desantis, fair to say, needs to do well. at the moment, the poll numbers are not good for him. he needs to get to 30% because right now the numbers show he is politically a dead man walking. he will want to do well. the story is probably who gets second place. christian: what puzzles a lot of people is obviously he gets more popular, the former president, the more he is held to account. the criminal cases it seems are making him more popular. >> it is true, and he knows

that, which is why after the indictments we saw him immediately using that as his campaigning material. the court room is almost his campaign venue. here in iowa, when you speak to people, the indictments, although legal problems, to them, that is proof, in their eyes, the establishment is going after him. having said that, there are semi wins i have spoken to that are put off by it. some prefer ron desantis. they think she shows more leadership feeling with the pandemic. many i wins not happy with the way that donald trump dealt with it, they felt he listened too much to dr. anthony fauci. one man said to me all these legal cases make me think it is too much trouble to vote for donald trump. there are alternative voices out there but for the most part, iowa is a place that really does back donald trump. you mentioned before, he didn't

win it in 2016, ted cruz won it, but donald trump went on to win the nomination and the presidency. iowa is not really a picture of where things go but safe to say that the state very much max donald trump. christian: he has a lot of volunteers out across the state, urging people to come out in the cold. nikki haley today in the more suburban areas of des moines, campaigning. who will it benefit, this cold weather, in terms of turnout? >> interesting to see because there is an argument isn't there, christian, that donald trump supporters will think, he is going to win anyway, so what's the point of turning out? but his supporters are some of the most loyal backers. we have seen them whether any situation to go out and support him, lining up in larne queues, even staying overnight to attend

his rallies. there is an argument it could benefit nikki haley. a lot of her supporters tend to be in the more cosmopolitan areas of iowa, so roads are clear, the caucus sites are nearer, or it could benefit ron desantis. he has made a splash with the evangelical community here, sizable community, and they are seen as dedicated caucus-goers. there are others in the race, vivek ramaswamy, asa hutchinson, very much seen as outsiders to the other three. it is really hard to predict at this stage to the weather will benefit or won't. christian: thank you very much for that. a part of our team throughout the night. tune in for that. let's get the first word from our panel. you have been involved in trump's campaigns in the past. it makes a difference when you have volunteers out there knocking doors, urging people to come out, versus the paid

canvases who are hitting the phones were nikki haley. >> first of all, thank you for having me, christian. it makes a big difference when you are doing this hand-to-hand combat in iowa which is taking place. trump has enough supporters that are right now plowing the roads in iowa to make sure their supporters have clear routes to go to the caucuses. nikki haley has the advantage of most of her supporters in the suburbs and the city, the roads are already plowed, but organizational strength is demonstrated by trump with the snowstorm, people still going out to canvas, go door to door, specifically making the pledge and getting the roads plowed so that people can go to the caucuses. that is organizational strength if i have ever seen one. christian: what will they want out of tonight? they have been trying to set the bar low, saying 12 points would be a big win for them. on the other hand, they could hit the 50% mark which would be

unprecedented. what is realistic do you think? >> keep in mind, we've been having this conversation for nearly two years. 14 months ago, the media wrote donaldrump's political obituary. for them, the win matters. it basically makes the race over. when every argument nikki haley will make in new hampshire doesn't jive with what is going on on the race on the ground. if they get this 15-point plus win you will see auge push for other candidates to drop out, consolidate the race, save money, and go after the real target, joe biden. realistically nobody has a chance going forward. christian: ron desantis gave an interview to nbc, says he is not pulling out. if he doesn't finish second, he will go on to south carolina. do you think he will look like a wounded bull tonight if he is not in second position given the amount of money she has spent? >> no question he will say that.

everyone says that on the day of the iowa caucuses when they know they will not win it. he is in the fight of his life and has nowhere to go after this. donald trump has two things he didn't have in 2016. he has a real organization, he built it. that is not true of the santos or haley, they have outsourced it. the other thing he has is evangelicals. everyone is talking about the santos'support among the evangelicals. donald trump has the most urban supporters who don't view him as a clinical candidate, they view him as a messianic figure. they believe he was put on this earth to save him. they will go through every snowdrift tonight no matter what to get to the caucuses. that's a big difference. after tonight, whether it is desantis in second or haley, they have nowhere to go. even if haley won new hampshire which i don't think she will, you go to south carolina, her

home state. she is not going to win south carolina. desantis within either. trump would beat him in florida. what you're seeing with the endorsements is the consolidation of the republican party so donald trump, a week from tomorrow night, can declare the primy over and the general election on. christian: do you agree with that or could you make an argument for haley gathering more momentum out of iowa, through new hampshire and gaining ground in south carolina? >> the only way that's possible is if trump stays below 15% tonight. if she enters second place in iowa, more come to believe the numbers would have us believe, if she is able to put away desantis and force desantis to except reality, drop out, make this a two-person race in new hampshire, have a strong showing in new hampshire where it is close between her and trump, and then create the narrative that there needs to be at least one

debate of haley versus trump. one thing we have never seen is haley go one-on-one with a republican on a debate stage. on live tv, anything can happen. we have seen plenty of people effectively and their campaigns by screwing up debates. that is really the only path she has, two get to a situation where she can convince trump to do a one-on-one debate, and then hopefully out of that pull some sort of miracle where trump fails on live television. beyond that there is no viable path. this is not a likely scenario. that is really the only way that i could foresee nikki haley being competitive going forward. we all know trump will easily win iowa tonight. he is in a commanding lead across the board nationally, even in their home states like south carolina. there's a consolidation happening, whether it is senators like marco rubio or likely, virtually all of the house leadership now have

endorsed trump going forward. it is in the republican's best interest to consolidate around their surefire nominee and begin the general election campaign rather than raising money and spending money, allowg joe biden to achaemenid a lot of money. he has raised more money at this point then barack obama had at this point when he ran for reelection. it is in the republican's best interest to consolidate and begin a general election campaign as soon as possible. christian: we will talk more about the other candidates in the hour. before we do that, let's get to a short break. you are watching bbc news. which gives us a chance to look at the stories here in the u.k. today. two men have been jailed for life for the murder of a 14-year-old girl in 1996. robert o'brien and andrew kelly punched, kicked and threw bricks at the woman. junior doctors in wales have

become three days of industrial action overpay. thousands of appointments and operations have been canceled. the welsh government says operations will continue but has urged people to avoid going to hospital unless actually necessary. there are around 4000 junior doctors in wales making up 40% of the medical workforce. reports of potholes at a five-year high according to local councils. scientists warn climate change but worsen the problem because there will be more wet weather extreme temperatures. the government says it is investing an extra 8 billion pounds to resurface british roads. you are lined with bbc news. there are no absentee ballots in an iowa primary. the republican caucus requires mandatory in-person attendance starting at 7:00 sharp tonight. at 1600 individual caucus events

across the state and only registered republicans can take part. and every one of these caucus events, someone speaks for the candidate, before casting a vote on a paper ballot which is then counted in front of the crowd. there is a lot of campaigning that goes on in the room. four years ago, we went to a bar in des moines, where a caucus captain walked us through the process. >> we have sam and katty and me. i am looking pretty viable. i have four seats. sam, you are looking pretty hopeless, you have one seat. tom, you may be viable, you have three. katty and sam are in the win. is this where i start saying, come over to me? >> or is this the bit where i say to sam, you are not viable, but if you join me, the two of

us together could be viable. you come to me, sam. don't go to him, he is fine. >> but i'm going to the white house. >> we are more aligned on policy, sam. >> i think you shouldome to us, for sure. we are right on all the issues that are important to america. >> am going with tom. >> thank you so much. >> this means i am left, tom, and i am not viable. just the two of you now. >> you need to think lg and hard about which candidate is the best candidate. >> it is about electability. where are you going? >> the key to this is it shows -- it proves to the public in iowa and across the country which candidate has the best organization for grassroots politics. that is where it is at.

shoe leather on the ground. you cannot be the only will caucus or that. christian: caucus captain's very important. i didn't know what was going on with that video. a lot of man spreading going on. i was a young man, this was four years ago. my apologies for that. irrespective, let's focus on trump for a while and what we see in this final weekend. that point that kurt was making, that already the party is consolidating behind him, it just struck me as he was saying that, donald trump was in court twice last week. there wasn't as much face-to-face time in the final week of the campaign as you would expect from a candidate. maybe it is just another example of how the former president defies political gravity. >> there is always going to be examples of this going forward. it is the magic of president trump. keep in mind, his courthouse

appearances are political events, they are campaign events. the whole thing we have seen past year since he has been indicted several times has been a reversal of his poll numbers, putting him in a strength of position. if you look underneath the numbers of those polls, it shows college-educated republican women who were disappointed, disillusioned by president trump's actions, they have returned back to the fold. that's a direct result of the indictments against president trump. i wouldn't discount any of these court hearings. as much as they are criminal trials, they are also very much campaign events that are actually galvanizing the republican party, and moving independent women back into his direction. christian: marianne, you talk about the evangelical vote which is hugely important particularly in the rural areas of iowa. how do they square that support in iowa with 91 criminal

charges, allegations that he paid hush money to an adult film star, not to mention his attempt to overturn the 2020 election? how do they square that? he is an unlikely hero for deeply's religious christians. >> it would be hard to find a biblical principle and apply it to donald trump and square it with a voter. it is especially strange given their christian evangelicals that support him. but to brian's point, what donald trump has done is made the trials part of the campaign. he uses them to message voters. in this case, he is showing his supporters and voters that he is being persecuted. this is not about a trial, per se, it's about his persecution, and he has turned it to them in the rallies, i am standing in front of them coming after you. i am the only thing between you

and being persecuted. they are doing it to me and i am doing it for you. especially for those inclined to strong evangelical religious beliefs, speaks to them in a way that is not political but very religious, and that is what they believe in. that is the kind of diehard support you see. we always see the lines for the rallies, saw the lines going into see trump in the freezing cold weather. it is that kind of diehard support that you cannot quantify. i will quibble with brian a little bit about independent women and voters and all of that. , but when you extrapolate that, especially in a general election, it will be tougher to keep independent women, especially over the topic of abortion, which will really drive the presidential election in 2024. that is what this is all about. it's a very clever campaign tactic that donald trump is using that works very well in states like iowa that is dominated by evangelicals. christian: we can talk about the

issues later in the program. let me pick up that point. florida governor ron desantis has thrown all the chips down at iowa, visiting all 99 counties. he landed the endorsement of kim reynolds, the governor, the evangelical leader, has knocked on nearly a million doors but in the polling is going backwards. this is the polling this weekend versus august. he has lost second place to nikki haley. suddenly, the candidate who last month was claiming he would win this is now telling voters he likes his chances as the underdog. >> we are going to do well. we are going to do well. i like being underestimated. i like being the underdog. i think that's better. my supporters like that. they understand. if you think about it, we have

the media against us, we are taking shots from the former president, i am taking shots from the republican establishment. all of this stuff. we are there and we have the people behind us and we are building one community at a time. that is what we have done. that is the way that you do it. christian: like ted cruz in 2016 who finished at the top of the pile, he spent a lot of time in the northwestern counties of iowa, the rural, evangelical areas. he things his ground game there is pretty good. i wonder if we are underestimating the strength of support for ron desantis in this poll, whether or not the evangelicals are a monolithic block, if some have peeled away from trump and may vote for ron desantis tonight? >> the one thing we have seen throughout this primary is that the more people exposed to ron desantis, the more his numbers have gone south. this guy is just not likable. going to all 99 counties was a

terrible idea for ron desantis. the more that people see him in action, the less impressive he becomes to them. once you see ron desantis up close, serving in congress as i did, when ron desantis was a member, they would all tell you, this was not a guy that if you walk into a room you would walk across to shake his hand. he is not the guy. the idea that he would be president of the united states was laughable to us in the house of representatives. the more voters become familiar wi him, the less they like him. what you say when you say you are going to lose. it is all a bunch of bs frankly because we all know he is not in a strong position. heoesn't like being in the underdog position. he doesn't like the fact that he will get trounced by 30 points by donald trump. that is not a position of strength, not an underdog that you can root for. it is just an indictment on his popularity, that the republican voters have not caught on to ron

desantis. christian: quickly, it shows that actually retail value of a candidate who can shake hands, it counts a lot. >> absolutely, especially in iowa. the presidential race is always a popularity contest. would you be willing to have a beer with the guy? after $200 million, not a lot of guys want to grab a beer with ron desantis. he is good at policy, battles personality. he will be gone by tonight is my suspicion, even though he says he will stop being a factor after tonight. christian: it is the smile which is certainly a feature of many of the memes. narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: financial services firm, raymond james. man: bdo. accountants and advisors.

narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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