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narrator: pediatric surgeon. volunteer. topiary artist. a raymond james financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life well planned. brook: these are people who are trying to change the world. startups have this energy that energizes me. i'm thriving by helping others everyday. people who know, know bdo. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for americs neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news". >> i'm caitriona per. in des moines, iowa. this is a special bbc world news america.

the first caucus of the presidential election will take place in iowa as voters braved the cold. concern over the fate of two israeli hostages after hamas claims they have been killed. and a houthi missile hits a u.s. ship off the coast of yemen. low and welcome to world news america. the race for the white house starts tonight in iowa. cold conditions have not stopped the first major statewide vote to decide will be the republican candidate for u.s. president. there are several individuals in the field but the three pulling highest are the former president donald tru, former south

carolina governor nikki haley, and florida governor ron desantis. the former's dominant numbers have turned this into a race for second place. the latest polls show donald trump pulling first, just short of the 50% mark. ms. haley is second with building momentum. >> these caucuses are a personal chance to score the ultimate victory over all of the liars, cheaters, thugs, perverts, crooks, freaks, and other quite nice people. >> no one can predict what the electorate will look like tomorrow. you can't do it. given these conditions and everything that is gng on, the best thing for us to do is not get caught up with that but do with we have been doing, turn out these folks. they are fired up and ready to go. i'm fired up and ready to go. that is how you have a good night. >> i think president trump was

the right president at the right time. i agree with a lot of his policies. but rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him. you know i'm right. chaos follows him and we can't be a country in disarray in a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. we won't survive it. >> iowa has 40 delegates in the republican contest and of the 2400 up for grabs, the significance lies in being the first caucus in the nation. it is seen as a preview of how the race might go and can make or break campaigns. i have been meeting local people and finding out the issues that matter to them ahead of the first test of the campaign season. they say the extreme cold won't stop them getting out to caucus. the weather has changed everything. roads are closed.

rallies canceled. snowdrifts. the show must go on. in this state, agriculture is big business. one third of the pork in the u.s. comes from iowa. there are seven pigs for every person. >> what a beautiful day to tour. hi, babies. is it warm in there? >> this pig farmer is the fifth generation of his family to work this land. inaccessible roads meant we couldn't make it in person to his farm over the weekend, but farmers will do what they can to get to the caucus, he says. >> we take caucusing very seriously. and we will make it. i have heard snowplows will roll on monday to make sure we can get out from our homes to caucus. >> there are many issues he wants addressed. >> i'm part of an industry that

is aging. so i'm concerned about the future of agriculture in terms of the potential but also in terms of the stability. we have groundwater issues. those issues are combinations of over fertilization, pesticides and herbicides used on our crops arenother source of groundwater contamination. if you do crop rotations or use more than just corn and soybeans , you can mitigate the amount of herbicides you have to use. >> water quality is of particular concern to farmers and all iowans, as anna gray of the iowa natural heritage foundation explains. >> our water quality hasn't seen significant improvement in the last decade or so. some trends show the levels of nitrate in our water is getting worse. we know thatas very negative

health impacts. iowa is the second highest, has the second-highest cancer rate in the country and is the only state to have a rising cancer rate. we don't know exactly because of that, but as we are looking to determine that, we know high levels of nitrate do we increase risk factors for cap service -- cancers and birth defects. prioritizing improving water quality is a critical task to undertake to address public health concerns and the environmental impacts. >> in the last 30 years, farm consolidation has meant the number of pig farmers has reduced by 80%, making it harder to make a living. chad is a professor of economics at iowa state university. >> we saw pris sink over the past year but farmers still have opportunities for profit as they

look forward. we have seen consolidation within farming. what we tend to see especially for the younger generation, they tend to farm and have some sort of off-farm job, usually related to agriculture like selling crop insurance or being in agricultural lending. there can be some issues, like the last time we really saw a big change in the aggie economy -- the agricultural economy due to the presidency would be with president tru when he got into the trade conflict with china. there is a sense of mistrust from u.s. farmers about, especially the chinese market specifically. >> iowans pride themselves on their first of the nation status and their tough spirit. despite the incredibly cold conditions, they are determined to come out to caucus. as to who they will vote for, that is the question.

all will soon be revealed. since the 1970's, iowa has been known as first in the nation, the ccus to kick off the race to the white house each election season. most states run primaries to nominate a candidate. caucuses are more complicated. caucuses are done -- are not done in person. only registered party members can participate. during each caucus representatives for the candidates make speeches and the registered voters cast their vote with a secret ballot. votes are counted, and results typically announced to the room. the first results could start coming in within one hour so around 8:00 p.m. eastern time. iowa is 99 counties are divided into 1657 precincts. some caucus in the same place

but there are still 729 caucus sites in all. for the most part, they are held in traditional locations, like any other election. in some rural areas they have to improvise. caucus-goers here will assemble in the local diner and dairy bar . here they will caucus in a workshop for a musician renowned for his skills in tuba repair. in silver city, with a population of 245, they will meet in the living room of the mayor. democracy in motion. let's go to carl, who is at the iowa state. what is it like? how is the weather holding up? does it look like people will make it out? >> in a word, it is cold.

this is a water bottle we left in the car overnight. it is completely frozen through. i made the mistake of stepping out earlier and trying to use my phone. the battery died in a couple minutes. it is very cold. one of the questions will be whether or not the temperatures and the weather will prevent iowans from heading to caucus sites to cast votes. i have spoken with voters. people say for the most part, it is cold but i'm still going to go out and i still want to support my candidate. in the capital city the roads are mostly clear. the concern will be rural areas. many of those roads still haven't been plowed and could be dangerous to try to drive to caucus locations. the big factor will be enthusiasm. which candidate has the most excited base? every candidate seems to say it is mine. donald trump of course would claim to have the most

enthusiastic base, the former president who has many people who are willing to do it -- do just about anything. he has a big lead in the polls. i have been speaking with the santos campaign staff. he says he has the advantage, visiting 99 counties and has a robust campaign headquarters. he has people on the ground to make phone calls and make sure everyone that has committed to him will show up tonight. we will find out very soon what will happen and who turns up on a very cold day in iowa. >> indeed we will. get yourself inside and warm up. and seltzer is the leading poster in iowa. her polls show donald trump in the lead. i met her earlier and asked why the iowa caucus is so important to the u.s. presidential election. >> the most important thing a

candidate can do is win something. iowa is the first place they can win something. it has notoriety for elevating people who were unknown, to anybody on the national stage. it can sort of prompt a leap into the public consciousness if they do well in iowa. >> your poll is the last one before folks headed to the caucus. it shows a massive lead for the former president, as almost every poll until now has shown. generally, how reliable is the last poll? >> it's not perfect. the thing for people to understand about caucuses is, they are designed for ideas and minds to change inside the caucus room. in 2016, our final poll had donald trump leading on the carcasses are his to lose. he lost them. his campaign didn't know what to do in the room on caucus night.

cruz won the carcasses by knowing how to organe the room and pull in undecided people. he ended up winning that way. that is part of what is unpredictable. pulling can help you show what people intend to do. >> donald's campaign seems to be more organized this time. we have seen ron desantis and nikki haley have a good ground game. >> that is everything. the ground game is about having a method to make sure people who say they want to support you actually get to the caucus site on caucus night. my observation and reporting is that the trump campaign has really diligently dug into that. at these rallies, there aren't that many of them compared to

what the other candidates are doing with multiple stops per day but they get a large number of people. they are signing commitment cards. they are told to act like they are one point behind and bring in more people when they caucus. that is the sign of somebody who understands how to work a caucus. >> and your pulling you ask people about -- in your pulling you ask people about enthusiasm for candidates. will that translate tonight? >> it is our best indicator. it is not perfect. it is a proxy for commitment to the candidates. we offered four choices, are you extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic? donald trump gets a big number for extremely enthusiastic, 49% of his supporters saying that. ron desantis gets 23%. so less than half of what donald trump gets.

nikki haley gets 9%. that was a moment when i looked at those data that, i had to pause and say, what is going on? she was the only one of the top three candidates to increase her share, yet the enthusiasm factor is far behind. that adds a level of uncertainty in terms of who turns up and their ability to stick with her. >> you are monitoring these caucuses for many years. the weather has never been this cold. it is a very short period of time. what impact will that have on turnout? >> the nearest we have had to this kind of weather in my memory was 2008. caucuses were held on january 3 because states trying to jump over iowa and iowa having none of that. it was very cold. the schools where lots of caucuses are held, the parking

lots might not have been plowed but it was the largest turnout we have had. iowans are not deterred easily from getting out and doing something they want to do. >> if you were to put your money where your mouth is, could you call perhaps the liky outcome? >> i won't do it. i will do that privately with myself. because i have seen almost anything happen that could happen. >> we have talked about the republican party under candidates. we should mention the democrats because they are also starting a caucus tonight but we won't of the result for quite some time. >> they have been moved out of the fir base running by the democratic national committee. they will hold party meetings. caucuses are party events so they will hold them, i don't know what participation will be like but they begin the process of mail campaign, a male ballot

-- male ballot to see what preference is. >> we will see what comes out of the republican caucus. thanks for joining us on bbc news. >> my pleasure. >> joining me is steve, i was a member of the republican national committee. thanks for joining us. the national weather service says tonight will be the coldest caucus on record since they began holding them in 1972. you will be running a caucus. how will it impact turnout? >> it could curtail a little bit but i don't see that because these campaigns have worked hard identifying people. at the rallies they drummed down on what you have to do. you have to be there. they have been hounded for a long time. it could be done a little but i think we will have a robust turnout. >> in terms of rallies, how do

you rate the ground game the candidates have run? we have heard about the importance of meing people. >> it is important. it is unlike a primary or general election because you have to identify who the caucus-goers might be and you have to wine and dine them, get them information, then get them committed and get them in your database. you have to have a mechanism, usually staffers, to turn them out. it is a grinding process. the candidates with the best ground game should do well. >> how have the candidates done this year compared to previous years? we heard ron desantis and vivek ramaswamy say they have gotten to all 99 counties. >> i am a veteran of three caucus campaigns myself as a paid staffer. years ago it seems like they started earlier. with the elephant in the room this year with donald trump, i

would think ty would get started earlier but especially donald trump and desantis and nikki haley, maybe to a lesser degree because her ground game got started later, i think they are doing well. the ground game is pretty intense and grinding. it doesn't happen overnight. tv ads are wonderful but that not what cuts the mustard. you have to have a good ground game. >> in your role as a member of the rnc, you have to remain neutral. >> signed a pledge that at least until caucus night we would remain neutral. we do that because we feel we want to be a fair sounding board for all the candidates, because if you weigh in one over the other, maybe they won't want to come here. we felt it is important to give them all a fair shot so they want to come back to iowa. >> from your neutral position, having spoken to all the

parties, how do you think republicans are feeling about the candidate? will it end up like the polls have predicted? >> i think so, but predicting a caucus is more difficult than to predict a primary or general election. i wouldn't be surprised if they are similar to what the polls are showing. between nikki haley and desantis, probably a tossup. merely the fact that desantis has had a longer-term ground game than nikki but she will probably do better in suburban areas around here. dallas county, polk county, scott county. the roads will probably be pretty good there. i think it is a jump ball between them for second place. >> when you expect to have results? are you confident your system is robust? >> we have a backup system. the republican party of iowa and their staff members have worked

hard to make sure we educate these people as to what happens. many times over. on top of that, the campaigns have done a superb job making sure walking through. i went to a trump rally and three times they bore down on exactly what you have to do. be in line by 7:00, get checked in. i believe all the other candidates have done the same thing. i think people will know what they are supposed to do tonight. >> you can go earlier and get in. >> sure. people will show up at 5:15. caucus leaders have been asked to set up around 5:00 so we want to get them checked in and make sure they are warm. >> and we will get the results coming out. steve of the rnc in iowa, thank you for joining us. now to some other news.

a new video released by hamas purports to show the bodies of two dead israeli hostages in gaza. we aren't going to show you that but it claims to show a 26-year-old speaking under duress, saying two men she had been held with, a 53-year-old andy 38-year-old, were killed in captivity. in a statement accompanying the video, hamas claims the hostages were killed by israel's bombardment. the israeli military spokesperson denied this. they claimed the building where they were being held was not an israeli target. he called the video proof of life from the woman, but they said they had grave concerns for the two men's fate. they are accusing hamas of using psychological abuse, adding wildly intense -- while the attacks on south gaza will end, israel put pressure on hamas,

arguing the group will not agree to releaseostages without it. a 70-year-old woman has been killed and at least 18 injured in a stabbing at car ramming attack in the central israeli city north of tel aviv. two palestinians from the west bank were reportedly arrested. israeli police say their investigation suggests the two suspects were working illegally in israel. houthis say they targeted a u.s. cargo ship off the coast of yemen and the red sea. the u.s. military confirms the ship was hit by a missile but says no one was hurt. this follows airstrikes launched by america and britain late last week in an attempt to defend international shipping from attacks by irani and allied houthi rebels. houthis said they were acting in solidarity with the palestinians. many shipping companies have

started taking a detour around africa to avoid the red sea. u.k. prime minister rishi sunak faced mp's for the first time since airstrikes launched friday. >> the need to maximize security and effectiveness of the operation means it was not possible to bring this matter to the house in advance. we briefed members before the strikes took place, including you, mr. speaker, and the leader of the opposition. i have come to the house at the earliest possible opportunity. mr. speaker, i don't take decisions on the use of force lightly. that is why i stress this action was taken in self-defense. it was limited, not escalatory. it was a necessary and proportionate response to a direct threat to u.k. vessels and therefore, to the u.k. itself. >> a volcano in iceland erupted for the second time in less than a month. residents called it a black day as a lot of us swept over the

town, destroying houses. officials are questioning whether it is safe for residents to return the region. remember, you can find out all about the day's news at our website, bbc.com/news, and you can see what we are working on any time by checking us out on your favorite social media platform. watch our coverage of the iowa caucuses tonight. analysis, reports and the important results, here on bbc news. i'm caitriona perry. take care. goodbye. ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: financial services firm, raymond james. man: bdo. accountants and advisors.

narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. now you won't miss a thing. this is the way. the xfinity 10g network. made for streaming. ♪ geoff: good evening. i'm geoff bennett amna: and i'm amna nawaz. on the "newshour" tonight, former president donald trump wins iowa as voters face freezing temperatures to caucus in the first electoral contest of the 2024 campaign.