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startups have this energy that energizes me. i'm thriving by helping others eveday. people who know, know bdo. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news". >> hello. this is the context. >> is he a threat to you? >> no, i do whatever she wants. there has never been a movement like this. make america great again. >> chaos follows him and we cannot be a country in disarra and have a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos because we won't survive it. >> people are coming into vote

throughout the day here. we should get an indication later tonight with the numbers are stacking up to be. ♪ >> the first in the nation primary but is this the last stand for the trump challenger? we will bring you all the news from new hampshire, just under five hours of voting to go and we will be in north virginia this evening for the official start of president biden's reelection campaign. our panel of guests tonight, miles taylor, formerly chief of staff and donald trump's homeland security team. jennifer carroll. in new hampshire, marianne marsh. in washington, leanne caldwell. a very good evening.

american leadership matters to all of us but perhaps never have the stakes been this high as they are in the 2024 election. two hot wars in ukraine and the middle east, an accelerating climate crisis, and perhaps at stake the future of the transatlantic alliance. this is one of the most important dates in the electorate calendar, the republican primary in new hampshire which will tell us so much about the shape of things to come in the mood of this american electorate. >> if you want four more years of donald trump, let me hear you scream! if you want the race to be over tomorrow, let me hear you scream! >> got a lot of democrats voting. it is a crazy election. let's vote for someone we want to run against. they want to run against her because she is so easy to beat. biden beats her by a lot.

we cannot have that. >> chaos follows him. you know i am right. chaos follows him and we cannot be a country in disarray and have a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos because we won't survive it. christian: unless nikki haley can pull off an almighty of satan eight -- almighty upset tonight, looks like a rematch will be underway. we have a split screen moment. we will speak to julie in a moment whoas attending president biden's speech. in new hampshire, we will start with some of the first exit poll data for us this evening. sumi, good to have you back with us. 84% of republicans think donna trump is the best candidate -- donald trump is the best candidate to beat joe biden. sumi: in which nikki haley wins tonight? christian: do you see a

way that she wins tonight? sumi: quite frankly when i use the word pathway, they say perhaps it is too generous to use pathway. if you look at nikki haley's campaign and some of her surgery surrogates, they say they believe she has a chance for a strong showing tonight because they believe the independent voters will turn out for her and cast their ballots for her. the secretary of state in new hampshire has said this will likely be a record turnout in this presidential primary. if that is the ce and a good number of independents do turnout and decide to support governor nikki haley, there's a possibility she could get close. but the way the polls are looking right now -- you mentioned some of them, that does not look very likely for nikki haley we have been discussing the fact her campaign has walked back some of those promises or aspirations to land first in this presidential primary. they are already talking about south carolina and in a

statement they put out today, we saw them look ahead to super tuesday. saying after super tuesday, we will see where things land. clearly, they want to perform well today. we saw nikki haley this morning and in the statement saying the media itself is ready to coordinate donald trump but this is a democracy. ballots first. all of that being said, that pathway to some sort of victory for nikki haley looks pretty unlikely at this point. christian: seeing the republicans lining up behind donald trump, getting ready to endorse him. one network said today it feels like a giant edition of "the apprentice." we are all addition for the job. any clues as to who we might pick? sumi: i think it is not entirely clear at the moment but you are right, many of the surrogates have been out here in new hampshire. we mentioned senator tim scott

is a name that keeps being brought into the conversation when it comes to the possible vice president pick. another one is congresswoman elise stefanik. she has been the most pug nacious members of congress. she has been incredibly loyal to him and her name has been coming into the conversation more and more. we know it is not likely going to be nikki haley. she was asked that, if that was something she would consider d she said that's not on the cards right now. because she has been facing off against donald trump, it is not look like she would be in vice presidential contention. i think we have to look very closely at those people who are out on the calm pain trail -- campaign trail for donald trump and will continue to be loud voices for him in the coming south carolina primary as well. christian: it is no coincidence that there's another event in north virginia this afternoon. what are you expecting we will hear from president biden when

he takes the stage? julie: thank you for having me. i'm glad to be here at the first joint event for president biden and vice president harris. they are kicking off their restore tour. this event is all about making sure the women and men in this nation understand what the stakes are in terms of how women are viewed in this country. we know that this election for 2024 is going to decide how women are treated in this country. joe biden as well as vice president harris are very clued in to what this means for us. what i am talking about is the fact if the republicans win this election, they have committed to passing a federal abortion ban. and that includes presidential contender nikki haley. that will mean no matter what state you live in in the u.s.,

women will not be able to get abortions even when their own personal health is in jeopardy. the vice president and the president are committed to codifying roe. the vice president is on tour right now, starting in wisconsin yesterday, and she is today in northern virginia with the president. and they are going to keep hammering home for the american people that restoring roe v. wade and abortion rights for women in this country -- christian: it is interesting you say hammer home because the michigan governor gretchen whitmer was on television saying she wants to lean into it more. it has proved a good ticket for the democrats in recent votes. are they leaning in enough? julie: this tour that the vice president is on, her second stop at the president right by her side as well as the first lady and theecond gentleman, they are all committed to making this a primary piece of their

campaign because it does not stop with roe v. wade, it does not stop with abortion in this country. the minute the republicans have the chance totrip away rights such as the right for women to choose what to do with their bodies, it will impact the right of women to obtain contraception. it will impact the right of the lgbt community to be who they are. we all realize in the democratic party what is at stake. in this country, it is really -- we're ready to do it. christian: i think that line just about held up. thank you we will hear more from sumi as the night goes on. let's bring in our panel to talk about some of the issues that are in front of us this evening. leon, let me bring you in first. i want to show our viewers why this is difficult for nikki haley. let me show you why it is stacked against her. this is a survey from monmouth polling, widely respected.

trump 18 points up, which is broadly in line with other polls. the challenge for haley is beneath these numbers. she's winning the undeclared voters and the college educated. but, she is losing among republican voters 64-22, n on-college-educated voters 60-27, and those who consider themselves very conservative 78-10. to win this, she needs a big slice of that undeclared vote but also needs a broader slice of the republican base and that is what she's not getting. >> yeah, the republican base has always been the challenge for nikki haley. the base is firmly behind the former president donald trump. when you talk about the undeclared voters in new hampshire -- let me take a step back, when you look at that picture you laid out, that is why new hampshire is perhaps nikki haley's best chance in these early states to maybe get an upset or do quite well here

because of the demographic and the makeup of this state. getting back to the undeclared voters, they make up about 39% of the voters here. so, they can vote in that republican primary and they can vote for nikki haley if they want. that is the slice of voter she's attracting. but, part of the challenge here for nikki haley's she has spent an entire campaign until the last few days avoiding directly attacking the former preside. so, while she's attracting the anti-trump vote, she did not really base her campaign on that much. she's trying to make up for that in the last few days and we will see if it is too little too late. christian: miles taylor, too little, too late? >> i have to think so. if she wanted to beat donald trump, she needed to treat him like he was actually a competitor, not like she was auditioning to be on the ticket with him. even if christian, tonight is

somehow an upset, and i don't mean nikki haley beating donald trump. even if she performs well, you have to think about what's next on the calendar. they've got south carolina and they've got nevada and michigan and idaho. places where donald trump is going to dominate. even if nikki haley gets wind in her sales, she's going to have a hard time competing with trump in those places. one of those is a place where she had been governor. donald trump is still beating her in her home state where she was governor. if she does well tonight, she has a huge uphill climb and i think at least in my view, it is safe to say that donald trump is still very likely to run away with the nomination here. that tells us a lot about this moment we are in in american politics. christian: i have to ask you about ron desantis because he is not there. pulled out on sunday. had about 6% of the vote in new hampshire. he has endorsed donald trump.

we talked last night about why you did not go right for him, trying to run to the right of donald trump did not seem to work. we were making the point that in a way it does feel this race as though donald trump is the incumbent. >> true. and in a sense, he is because he has held the office before. many other candidates ran on he's an outsider. if you came in, it would be so catastrophic. the voters saw that when he was in office, things were great. they had discretionary income higher than they have now. the economy was doing well. we had safety and security on our borders, energy independence. when the voters look at donald trump, they are not looking at him as a novice, they are looking at what he accomplished the last time. seeing what we have now with open borders, the infrastructure is not great. the secury is not great.

we have our economy not doing well. across-the-board, people have lost in their retirement income and they want to get back to a better order than it is today. they are looking at donald trump as that savior. christian: i will come back to those points on the economy later in the program. let me talk about how demrats view this. in new hampshire, there's a bit of irritation which we will talk about later about the fact that joe biden is not in new hampshire tonight. talk to me about how they see the race on the right. do they even perceive it or are they already in a general election campaign? >> everyone is in a general election campaign starting tonight. donald trump will be the nominee. nikki haley will not win new hampshire. and joe biden knows it is a general election starting now, so we will have a 10 month, longest in modern history general election. that is why you saw joe biden starting to ramp up activities

on abortion, events in south carolina and elsewhere. they know that. i want to point to one thing that leon caldwell said about nikki haley. the trump campaign expertly increased her on favorability rating. theyan ads against her. her on favorability rating went up. when people do that, people are likely to believe her claims. when she finally went after donald trump, she angered the vendor republicans she needs t win tonight which she won't. she was put in a box she could never get out of. whether nikki haley is onto south carolina, the presidential election is under the general election tonight. christian: before we go to the break, this will answer two real questions for us when we look at the exit polls tonight. the first being can donald trump replicate the sort of turnout he had in iowa? and will he turn out a disproportionate share of people

who oppose him? are there independents that won't vote for trump that biden will loo scoop up after this ballot? >> both of those things are true. the last tracking poll this morning has trump up by 22 points. he hit 60. he kept going up. nikki haley could not catch him. what you are looking at, in addition to all the people that trump will pull out, republicans and some democrats and unaffiliated to vote in the republican party, donald trump has the best organization in new hampshire just like he had in iowa and that alone is worth three to five points. i expect trump to it in similar fashion as he did in iowa. christian: coming up, we will hear from the voters and we will take a look at one of the issues that will be a deciding factor in this election, but cost-of-living. stay with us. this is bbc news.

look at stories making news in the u.k. today. a storm has wreaked havoc, leaving two people dead in scotland and northern ireland. thousands of homes are still without power. gusts up to 99 miles per hour disrupting the journeys of many road, rail and a travel. prosecutors have accepted a plea of manslaughter from a man who killed three people and attempt to kill three more in nottingham last june. he stabbed to death two people and a 65-year-old school caretaker. australia haimposed sanctions on a russian man it accuses of taking part in one of the country's worst breaches of personal data. the government said he hacked nearly 10 million accounts of the private insurer, including that of the country's prime minister. they say sensitive medical records were stolen and leaked on the dark web.

you are live with bbc news. in this new hampshire primary, it all comes down to the voters and we want to talk about those people next and what they make of this election. let's bring in carl who has been spending time at the polling stations today. talk to me first about turnout, what people are saying to you about their choice in this election. >> it is interesting when you talk about the mood here and the vibe. speaking with those who have covered the new hampshire primary for several years, they say it does not feel the same. you don't have the same energy, the same excitement because of the polling numbers specifically, but at aside, we are respecting a record turnout this year. we have been speaking with the secretary of state and they say they are expecting the biggest turnout they've ever seen. part of that may be due to the donald trump effect.

part of it could be due to the fact we are expecting many independent voters, those who are not democrat, not republican, they are respecting to come out in numbers for nikki haley. also, the strange fact that the democrats are not exactly holding an official primary so we could see some gration from independence that would be turning up for democrats and might be voting on the republican side as well. we have been speaking with voters, all across the state trying to figure out which way this is going to go. here's a little bit of what voters were saying at the polls earlier today. >> i voted for trump. four years in office, i think he did a great job. i know he's pretty outspoken, a lot of people don't really like that. i do like that. i don't like things being sugarcoated. >> no trump . nikki haley, woman president, it is all good. >> i hope that he wins. obviously, what i like about joe biden is he represents

blue-collar people and the working class. i think he's doing a very good job. >> many analysts and pollsters say this is likely the best real shot for a republican to take down donald trump, or at least to try to close that gap. it is interesting to see both campaigns already looking ahead to the next states. nikki haley has a campaign event scheduled for her home state of south carolina tomorrow. donald trump has been calling for haley to drop out and say we need unity as a republican party to take on joe biden in what could be a campaign for the general election starting pretty soon. christian: thank you for that. miles taylor, when i listen to trump voters, many of them you have spoken to yourself, it feels there are two kinds of trump voters. there are the maga voters who love him and will support him. but then there are other voters who seem much more transactional.

they come out of the cost-of-living crisis, they feel it was better under donald trump. so they will lend him there vote because they think he's the most likely one to deliver what they want. >> that is absolutely right. i will add a third category, which is pretty surprising when you look at the polls and the crosstabs, which is that even the republicans who are considered never trump republicans, a lot of whom opposed him in 2016 or 2020, you see a lot of them are going back to the tribe. and they are even willing to vote for donald trump again. when you ask those voters why, they say when push comes to shove, they just don't want to see joe biden win reelection. and that is a worry for the president of the united states. when he's looking at his numbers, he needs to cobble together at least a small coalition of disaffected republicans and democrats to win reelection.

it is what got him into the white house the first time. a disproportionate number of republicans voted for a democrat for the first time in their lives to put joe biden in the white house. the fact those people are going back to the gop tribe is certainly a big worry to the white house at this moment. christian: let me put on screen few measures that might challenge what jennifer was telling us about with regards to the economy. so, inflation. went we came out of the trump presidency, we were at a pandemic. it is now at 3.4% inflation, lower in the u.s. than germany, france and the u.k. the university of michigan indexed shows consumer sentiment has surged more than 20% since november. the p 500 and dow industrials have set new highs this past week. we are on a full on bull market. and 2023, a great year for the american worker. the economy created 2.7 million

new jobs. jennifer, i understand you cannot tell people it is better when they are paying through the nose for gas and groceries, and theyre not feeling it in their pocket. when you look at those numbers, there is something for the biden campaign to get their teeth into. >> well, they tried. they tried to tout bidenomics, but the average person that is feeling a triple and quadruple increase in buying eggs and the necessity of life to live. affordable housing is almost nonexistent across the country. they are feeling in their pocketbooks. they don't have the discretionary income that they had under the trump administration. the numbers can say one thing but the voters that will be going to the polls to say i want a change because i am feeling the impact with my family, my budget is not what it was or what i need it to be, and my savings is not what it was, that is going to be the driver for every person going to the polls

when it comes to the economy. christian: they'd used to be that your perception of the economy influenced your politics. i wonder if it is your political leanings that determine how you view the economy. >> well, it sure seems that way, especially if you listen to donald trump at a rally. here's the reality, all the economic indicators are moving in the right direction and people have 10 months to start feeling the benefits of it. this 20 of time for joe biden and the democrats -- there is plenty of time for joe biden and the democrats to benefit from that. the issue that will drive this race is abortion. women are the majority in this country. women will go to the polls in droves because having a right taken away from them -- when you look at the polling, from 9% to 17%, everything the demographic, women, men, gender, geographic location, income, all support abortion rights. we have seen that in 2020.

we saw that in the 2022 midterms. but, republicans are really good at working the media and getting them to only focus on the economy. women don't care about the economy if they don't have the ability to make a decision about their own health care, about theiown rights. they also realize that it is just the beginning of taking rights away from women. that in the end is really going to drive the selection. christian: just quickly, that is a very conservative message. when you talk about freedoms, that goes to the heart of what conservatives would normally be campaigning on. >> absolutely. but on the issue of abortion, it is not always align that way. conservatives would say a baby is involved so it is about the freedom for that fetus, too. i will say the economy is absolutely going to be a key issue. abortion is also going to be a key issue. that has proven to be accurate in the midterm elections as well. i will say we have seen many of the democrats i have talked to

are pretty ecstatic and thrilled that tonight could be donald trump's coronation to the republican nomination. they think oncet is biden versus trump, people are going to be reminded about the impact of trump. christian: we will have a quick break. the panel will stay with us. we will talk about the key foreign policy issues, which is a narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: financial services firm, raond james. man: bdo. accountants and advisors. narrator: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ narrator: funding for this presentation of this program is provided by... narrator: pediatric surgeon. volunteer. topiary artist. a raymond james financial advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. life well planned. brook: these are people who are trying to change the world.