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christian: hello. i'm christian fraser, "the context and this is "the context." >> crooked joe will not succeed with these plans and he will not get away with these crimes, and they are crimes. he will be tried at the ballot box this november and convicted by the american people. >> working on it very hard. we must get more aid into gaza, no excuses. >> this is the state that has the biggest chunk of delegates for donald trump as he is marching towards securing the nomination for the republican presidential nominee. and this is a state where we are seeing a lot of candidates and energy looking at immigration as well. christian: yes, it's super

tuesday. donald trump hoping to clinch his party's nomination with a clean sweep of 15 states. but what if nikki haley? is this her last stand, or is there plan b? with us this hour entrepreneur and former white house communications director anthony scaramucci. also, the war in gaza. cease-fire negotiations come to a close in cairo without a breakthrough. what does president biden do about that? and man up, the allies must be braver, says the french president, in their efforts to resupply ukraine. very good evening. the polls are open in 15 states. it is super tuesday, a day in the primary calendar that in previous cycles has given us a clear indication of which candidates will win their party's presidential nomination. this year there is far less suspenseful both parties have steered us to who their nominees

will be, as biden and trump cruise through the early voting states. the republican presidential candidate nikki haley is still in the race, for now, but the expectations are low. these are the state that are voting today. the u.s. territory of american samoa also staging democratic caucus. tuesday is the last day for democrats in iowa to mail in their primary ballots. almost one third of the degates will be up for grabs on super tuesday. on the republican side of the ledger, the winning candidate needs 1215 delegates to capture the nomination. a clean sweep today would put donald trump within touching distance of the nomination. if the polling is right, the 2024 election will be a contest that 70% of the country don't want. biden vs. trump, the rematch. mr. trump: crooked joe will not succeed with these plans and he will not get away with these crimes, and they are crimes.

he will be tried at the ballot box this november and he will be judged and convicted by the american people. christian: joining us from new york tonight, good to have you back on the program, entrepreneur and former white house communications director anthony scaramucci. good to see you, anthony. if the results are baked into night, what are we looking for? what are you looking for in the results? anthony: i think the number one piece of the results that i am most interested in is the exit polling related to the haley voters. when they are asked upon departure from the polling, will you vote for donald trump in november -- he is not doing well in that category. blended average of the last five or six primaries is about 40% of those people have said no. and as of the second every question has to be to the trump campaign, how do you reconnect those people, because you need the crossoverote to win the election. bernie sanders voters didn't

vote for secretary clinton by -- secretary clinton voters did vote for barack obama. mr. trump will need those votes to win in november, and a lot of people say no, never vote for him under any circumstance. christian: nikki haley's not signaled at this point what she is going to do past super tuesday, although those in the know would say there is no advertising booked past today. anthony: i think it does, because if she stays in the race as a never trumper or somebody that is convincing her constituents not to vote for trump, it is a big impediment to him winning. remember, he can't win the popular vote in the united states and the democracy of the united states has changed since 2016 and even 2020. --demography of the united states has changed since 2016 and even 2020. his only path through the presidency is through the swing

stat, and if ambassador haley can convince those people to stay away from him, joe biden will win the election. christian: if you were to say to people after january 6 that this is where we would be on super tuesday 2024, i'm not sure they would have believed you. what is it that is galvanized a donald trump's support? anthony: well, let's talk about the cowardice of the republican party. this is important, because you are right, they would have never believed you. kevin mccarthy could have pushed them right through the ropes lights out with the help of nancy pelosi and mitch mcconnell. they could have impeached him on the seventh of january, you would never see or hear from donald trump again, and then the republican party could have healed. since that did not happen, the number one thing is republican party principal cowardi, and the second thing is whether we like this or not, he has a very ardent group of people, very similar to the people that voted to brexit in the united kingdom back in june 2016.

they reject globalism and they don't feel like the system has been fair to them and their families. mr. trump represents that he is an avatar for their anger, and this is why he is able to have 4 big criminal cases against him, 91 indictments, and he keeps pushing through in these primaries. but look at the data, the base itself has actually shrunk. the republican party's registrations are down. the highest registrant group is the independents now at 42%. frankly, mr. trump doesn't do well with them, specifically suburban women. they don't like mr. trump. big question for him, if you get one for journalists to ask him or his team, how are you going to be connected this party after winning all of these primaries. christian: we will maybe talk about ukraine in this setting later, but what surprises people on this site is how far the republican party has moved.

it is no longer the party of reagan or the bushes -- anthony: party of russia. christian: yeah -- well, it certainly is the party of donald trump on foreign policy, fiscal responsibility, law and order, family values, you name it. it is a cult of personality, it seems to me. anthony: yes, and he has co-opted them, and that was one of the more fascinating things. there were hosts of people still to this day that will speak publicly in support of mr. because they are in politics, but privately they will explain to you how much they dislike him. those are members of the house currently, members of the senate that are republicans. i think it is getting tiresome, that rhetoric, that sort of bait and switch rhetoric. listen, you can see it in the fundraising data. mr. trump is underperforming relative to president biden. the rnc is underperforming. they are spending more than they are taking in. of course they just lost their

chairwoman. some of that is related to it. but what it's really related to is it is a big turnoff to well-heeled investors and long-standing political fundraisers. they don't want to be affiliated with mr. trump, and he can really feel it in the purse as it relates to the campaign right now. christian: that's a really important issue that we always forget on this site. you are the moneyman, you are there in new york city. anthony: he needs the dough and he is burning more that he is taking in right now. by the way, in south carolina last week he had a few big former gop fundraise, or current gop fundraisers, behind him. he is trying to signal to people that he can put the dough together. but truth be told, the dough is not coming. he is the presumptive nominee, and typically when that happens there is a waterfall of money that hits the campaign. that hasn't happened with mr. trump because he is frankly a big turnoff.

christian: which is why he wants nikki haley out of the race, hoping that he can turn the spigot on. in terms of what he owes, it's about half $1 billion in new york alone. maybe we should have a quick look at the court cases a how that might affect the vote. the court cases coming up, we have the hush money case on march 25, stormy danie case, which not a lot of people take seriously. the supreme court oral arguments on immunity, april 22. i don't know if we have a graphic on this. can we put it on screen? classified documents, that is the special counsel case which come as we know, has been postponed till july, might not even come until august. the georgia elecon case also scheduled till august. we will put it on screen, we found it. it is difficult to hypothesize when there is so much that is unknown, anthony. the contest as we are calling it today is biden versus trump.

do you think with all this in mind that by the time we get to november, the polls in the contest will look the same? anthony: well, i'll say something contrarian on your air. if you have an april immunity hearing, jack smith is not a dummy. he is a scheduling that case for july 8 because he believes a decision will be rendered by the supreme court sometime in june. that is classically the case. most of the big court decisions for the supreme court come out in june. he is looking at the tea leaves and he is saying there is no way they are going to give donald trump or any president complete immunity. you get immunity for the job, you get immunity for the office, but you cannoterpetrate crimes like assassinate your political opponents or insurrect the capital. i don't think you are allowed to do that. that is outside the purview of your office. i think you have a situation here where the court rules possibly against trump, they

ruled with him on the colorado ballot case, but they could rule against him here. and that this is a big dramatic set up going into the convention. remember, they've got him on tape premeditatedly pushing the insurrection. they also have mark meadows, who was the chief witness for the prosecution, not a soros- sponsored da and all the talking point nonsense f this is a white christian who is the former leader of the freedom caucus in the house of representatives that was trump's last white house chief of staff, is the chief witness for the prosecution. this could be a bombshell event and sort of something that knocks the current trajectory of trump vs. biden of course. i'm not saying that will happen. it will probably be likely that we'll have to beat mr. trump the ballot box. but you can't rule out potential, coming as a result of

these court cases. christian: but you know, just in terms of the new york case, in the court of public opinion i want to know -- i don't mean to be vulgar about this, but when testimony is heard next month that he was sleeping with an adult film star while his wife was pregnant and that to get around that, he had michael cohen pay money and this is where the money came from, those sort of details in the public domain surely has an impact on independent voters? anthony: well, i think it does. if you look at the data, specifically suburban housewives when they are pulled, it is a super -- polled, it is a super big turnoff they may have an ardent base that will listen and dohatever mr. trump wants. we have more or less proved that the last seven years. but those sort of details coming out in the press will hurt him. some people say these court cases in new york, they shouldn't be taken that seriously. but listen, you mentioned michael cohen.

michael cohen went to jail for that. it will be interesting to see what happens to mr. trump in the trial, but they've got him dead to rights. they have all the smoking-gun evidence there. if he is guilty, they put a former president in jail, i guess they won't, but he will have a conviction notch against him going into the general election. and what we know from polls, maybe not his ardent base, but when you ask other people come if he is convicted in some of these court cases, does that turn you off to voting for him, there is enough people that say yes to that question, which will limit his opportunity to return to the presidency. christian: ok, and the staying with us. on the other side of the break we will talk joe biden. five-alarm fire in the democrat camp. how do they turn around the president's sacking numbers? you are watching bbc news. for you cave you are still with us, let's take a look at -- you

viewers still with us, let's take a look at other stories. a series of cuts to local services and a 21% rise in council tax over the next two years. they need to make 300 million pounds in savings. let's bring in our political correspondent who is in birmingham for us. extraordinary amountf money that ordinary council taxpayers are going to have to find over the next two years. >> it took five hours to agree to this budget, which is why he acknowledge it will affect the whole community -- parks, leisure, arts funding, council tax going up. a lot of blame throwing around. conservatives say delivered to for mistakes about equal pay. labor says the government has underfunded local government. there are warnings across the board about financial pressures in the sector. christian: alex forsyth in birmingham. we will come back to that story lar in the program.

welcome back. there were four polls out this weekend spelling bad news for president biden. the new york times poll had the president four points behind his likely opponent, donald trump, and a hypothetical matchup -- might not be hypothetical much longer. there were three surveys showing trump leading amid broad and deep dissatisfaction with the incumbent. anthony scaramucci with us, and also katty kay. i think you both know each other very well. anthony: hi, katty. christian: this should go swimmingly. katty: hey, anthony. christian: let's talk about joe biden because we focused on donald trump. those are bad numbers for an incumbent. the one thing he can fix which shows up in all of these polls is the age problem. --e can't fix which shows up and all of these polls is the age problem. katty: yeah, he is old, and he

will have to address it better than he has been addressing it now the campaign says they will have more video appearances and are trying to make fun of the age thing, saying i am older than the phonograph, i am older than christian fraser. christian: [laughter] katty: and maybe that will help. maybe that is going to do somewhat. but the truth isoe biden is old, and know what they're trying to do is get surrogates out there and saying he is old, the other guy is crazy and that is your choice. the white house and the biden campaign say that they are excited about this day because finally they feel this is it, this is the contest, mano a mano, biden against trump, and this is their chance to show that do voters really want donald trump in the white house for four more years. they will point to character floors -- you got them out with videos. you look at their twitter feed, if anyone still looks at twitter, or x, whatever it is anymore, the biden-harris

campaign's x feed is all about gaffes donald trump is made, things donald trump i said that will put off suburban women voters. they are going hard against donald trump, having resisted doing so in the early months of the campaign. they are firmly taking on donald trump and they think that will work to their benefit and mitigate some of the dismay that voters feel about his age. christian: all sorts of common pieces on the left from democratic writers about whether he is the right candidate, whether he should stand aside. there is one that you did retweet, if that is what we call it, from ezra klein, who is listened to by people within the democratic caucus, and he just thinks it is time for joe biden to call it a day. katty: yeah, ezra klein, maureen dowd, nate silver, a bunch of top commentators who have come out and said that joe biden shouldn't be running for a second term. who else is it going to be? in a way that ship has sailed. look at nikki haley.

i don't know if anthony agrees with this, but look at nikki haley. she is a much better candidate after several months of primaries. she has told her political muscles, if you like, her campaigning muscles. if joe biden were to turn around on thursday night and in the state of the union say "i'm not running," it's a little late for all the other democrats to get into the ring and tussle it out amongst each other and become supreme political athletes. maybe they could just do it, but there is a reason you have these primary campaigns. they make candidates better, they made nikki haley a stronger republican candidate. i think without that, it's a bit late for democrats to say we wish this wasn't -- joe biden isn't going anywhere. it would take his wife to say you won't run, and jill biden from every thing i hear is fully committed to a second term. christian: so anthony, there is no smoke-filled room, no convention you could see on the horizon where the activists and the donors might get together and say, look, there must be a

non-incumbent governor who could do this in his place? anthony: i think that has happened. i think there have been smoke-filled rooms, and people have talked to the administration about that idea. i think they have been stiff-armed on that idea. i think you have a 5% probability he drops out. to apply historical context, marches is a good time for that. lyndon johnson dropped out in march 1968. but remember, what katty is saying is so true. you had three or four candidates already in the 1968 race, and they were running against lyndon johnson and they were challenging the incumbent. that is not the case here. i think it will be a biden-trump matchup. it's sort of "weekend at bernie's" vs. " one flew over the cuckoo's nest." christian: there is no doubt joe

biden has been around the block i don't know how many times. what is you have to do the next 8 months -- what does he have to do the next 8 months to change the dynamic? katty: he has got to do a couple of things. he has to have the economic numbers keep improving and lesion doesn't -- inflation doesn't tick back up again, which it has shown worrying signs of doing. he would love it for the federal reserve to bring down interest rates. and he has to drive very clear distinctions between him and donald trump. he is going to try to goad donald trump, and that is what we hear from the white house team. they are going to use videos to goad donald trump to saying things that they know suburban women voters won't like. and that is the key, can they hold onto those suburban women voters. if donald trump starts saying -- as he has been saying about immigration, about women, in the stormy daniels campaign, i don't know very many women who love the idea of there has been having an affair while they are pregnant -- of their husband

having an affair while they are pregnant good that is what we will be hearing about from the stormy daniels campaign from the biden campaign. they will try to get donald trump to say the kinds of things that make donald trump more unpopular with suburban voters. that is what the trump campaign is worried about. when i speak to them and i say what are you worried about, without blinking they say trump himself. yes, he draws people to the polls, but he can also be a liability. christian: you talked to, anthony, and the first quarter the problems joe biden has wit independents and suburban women. what about joe biden's coalition? it's a broad coalition and he benefited greatly from african american voters, but some polls suggest that when he percent of them could go to the republican side. that would be a major problem for joe biden's team. anthony: it would be, but would caution people in terms of taking these polls that seriously at this time, because i could show you polls from march 1998, michael dukakis up

10 vs. george herbert walker bush. coming out of the conventions late july 1998, michael the caucus up -- michael dukakis up 20. he lost the election. whatever happens in the beginning is flavor of the month, and it is the momentum. mr. trump is in the ns and mr. winning primaries. do you think mr. trump is going to win, will you vote for him, it is a more emotionally charged question right now. what katty said is true, let's watch the replay and the highlight video of all of mr. trump's behavior and the way he handled with american presidency. remember, covid, no covid, we lost 21 million jobs on mr. trump's watch. he is the worst republican candidate since herbert hoover. he lost to the incumbency of the presidency, he lost the house and the senate, and he has yet to win a popular vote and he won't win the popular te this time. there is a lot of compelling evidence against him that hasn't

really been displayed to the public at, and once that starts to happen, those numbers are knocked around a lot. christian: i'm not sure they are quite tired of winning just yet on the republican side. i want to take about one of the big issues for the election, the situation in the middle east. remember this? pres. biden: i hope by the beginning of the weekend -- end of the weekend. my national security advisor tells me that we are close. not done yet. my hope is by next monday we will have a cease-fire. christian: well, monday came and went and sti there is no cease-fire. the third day of talks broke up with no breakthrough. the israelis boycotted those talks. the palestinians accused israel of not engaging seriously, which all in all is a sorry state of affairs given the acute humanitarian crisis in gaza and

the hostages still being held captive. to make matters worse, a political row has blown up around benny gantz's visit to washington. according to israeli reports, mr. netanyahu made it clear to minister gantz the state of israel only has one prime minister. why is he there, katty? why has he had the invite? katty: because the white house is getting increasingly frustrated in private and in public with benjamin netanyahu. they feel they have been rebuffed in their attempts to get more food aid into gaza, in their attempt to get into the west bank, in their attempt to get him to commit to a two state solution. time and time again benjamin netanyahu rebuffed to the white house's efforts, so they will try to talk to somebody else even if that means annoying bibi. i think there is a timing issue here. it is not unrelated. the breakdown of the talks in

egypt are perhaps why we have had today joe biden using the word "cease fire" and yesterday kamala harris talking about the need for a cease-fire. there is a domestic political issue. you know this, we have reported this, christian. the white house knows they are using young voters and arab-american voters in critical state like michigan that could determine all of those things we have been talking about in november. they need to try and make sure they get their own political supporters back. that and genuine frustration. not a lot of love lost between joe biden and benjamin netanyahu in the first place. but they are very frustrated with the way the israeli government, israeli prime minister is handling the situation in gaza and the inability to get food in there and control the food aid convoys. christian: i'm up against a break and i will get anthony's thoughts on the other side of the bike. katty has an engagement, she is busy busy busy, but anthony has agreed to stay with

announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. bdo. accountants and advisors. cunard is a proud supporter of public television. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundaon. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... woman: a law partner rediscors her grandmother's artistry and creates a trust to keep the craft alive. a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions and the way you enrich your community. life well planned.