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. i'm christian fraser and this is the context. >> the deal with hamas, that they have prepared to agree to, is three consetive 42 day truces, during which there will be an exchange of hostages and prisoners. >> we continue to believe a hostage deal is in the best interest of the israeli people, in the best interest of the palestinian people. >> today we have seen the israeli troops already starting a limited operation in rafah. the pressure is huge on hamas to accept this. ♪ christian: hamas have agreed --

[please stand by]

as february, a deal that has now been softened. what we know about this proposal is that it sets out a three-stage pcess, each lasting 42 days. the first would lead to the release of 33 hostages in return for palestinian prisoners, and a partial israeli withdrawal. the second would lead to the release of all other living hostages. there are thought to be about 128 still alive. and the third phase would see a return of the bodies. the israeli defence minister said this morning that the decision to expand the assault on rafah had been taken because hamas had rejected their ceasefire terms. so, this has come as a surprise to the government in jerusalem. let's cross straight to our security correspondent, frank gardner, who's in jerusalem. bring us up to speed on the reaction there in jerusem. things are moving incredibly fast here. almost every minute there is a new update. the a senior palestinian official has told one of my colleagues that one of the things under consideration -- and this is

quite extraordinary -- is that hamas is even considering a long-term cessation of hostilities. but they have not committed to that yet and it would need to see this deal go through and for the truce to work. so there is an awful lot that can go wrong before then. but these are quite momentous times here. so although i have been urging people to temper things, there is an awful lot that can go wrong, there are hard-liners in the israeli cabinet who don't want any kind of deal with hamas , who simply want to see a hard israeli military push into rafah that eliminates hamas once and for all in their eyes. there are others, including down the road fromere, protesters lined in the street demanding a cease-fire deal to get the hostages home. the latest version of this deal as we understand it is that it is going to come in two phases. the first phase would see after

11 days, a partial withdrawal of israeli forces. there would be a release of the remaining female israeli soldiers, military people who are in captivity. i should correct something from earlier, it is not 128 still alive in gaza, it's of 128 it's believed around 34 are probably dead. so we are talking 90-plus hostages still thought to be alive in gaza somewhere held by hamas or its associates. so, it's a complicated process so bear with me. for each one of those female israeli soldiers who were released, there would be 50 palestinian prisoners released, women, from jails including those with life sentences. so this is really about confidence building.

it is a step-by-step process. the ultimate aim is to have a sustained period of calm and no hostilities. that is a heck of a big ask. because there will be enormous suspicion here in israel that hamas or palestinian islamic jihad or any other group is not going to stick to this, that rockets will be lobbed across the border into israel will say the whole thing is off. so there is an awful lot that can go wrong. but the prize is there now, out in the distance at the top of the hill. peopleust have to march up that hill to get to it. christian: just quickly, is there anything in terms that have been agreed? as y say, some of the details are quite difficult to get our heads around at this point. but is there anything that you heard that the israelis were not expecting? >> yes. one of the things i should add is what has been talked about

from the palestinian side is an end to the blockade in gaza. that could be something that, if that means demanding free passage for palestinians to go in and out of gaza to israel -- and that is not clear if it doesn't tell that, but if that is there, there's no way i can see a netanyahu government agreed to that. they have cattle to into the gaza strip, they say for security reasons, in the past to -- but the people of gaza live in intolerable conditions. it has been called the biggest open air prison in the world. and it is an unsustainable situation in the long term for. christian: shortly after the israelis ejected the agreement, the u.s. department of state spokesperson matthew miller was asked what happens next. >> i can confirm that hamas has

issued a response. we're reviewing that response now and discussing it with our partners in the region. director burns is in the region working on this in real time. we will be discussing this response with our ptners over the coming hours. we continue to believe that a hostage deal is in the best interest of the israeli people and the palestinian people at bringing an immediate cease-fire. it would allow increased movement of humanitarian assistance so we are going to continue work to try and reach one. christian: with me in the studio is jeremy bowen. it is pretty clear that there is an awful lot we don't know at the moment. convoluted messages all around. but we know that bill burns was the cia chief. so how do you reflect on this idea that israel did not see this coming? jeremy: well, i think that israel -- this is guesswork of course, but based on the kinds

of things that have been said, i think israel's assumption was that the head of hamas in gaza was not interested in doing any kind of a deal, that he wanted to continue with this. and in a sense, that made life a lot simpler for netanyahu who has been under a lot of pressure from his own right to do this operation in gaza. don't forget, these are the right-wings who sustain his government. without them, is government falls, and for him that is a very, very big deal, clearly. the phrase i keep hearing from people, people i speak to, other reports as well, is that now the ball is very much in netanyahu's court. that the bluff has been called. you can take it one stage further and say the ball is also in joe biden's court. because joe biden is the man now who, if the americans have decided that this deal is the deal that israel had agreed to, then he will say come on then, do it.

because actually the americans really want this to happen. it is hurting biden politically to keep pporting israel in the way that he has. and not just that. christian: there are a lot of moving parts beyond this. american has put a lot of focus on the day after, the normalization of saudi arabia, he has king abdullah in the white house today, phone calls right and left to try andet this over the line. so they will all look at him and say ok, here we are, what are you going to do to force it over the line? jeremy: i think that now if the deal -- i mean i have been listening to the white house briefing and so on, and they are using similar forms of words and saying burns, the head of the cia who is in doha, he has been in doha talking to the qatari prime minister all day long, is what i have been told. and so it seems strange that the israelis, some israelis are

saying this is not the deal we agreed to, that it has been softened in some way. there is an awful lot of chatter about that going on right now. but i would imagine if anybody is completely across every layer of the negotiation, it is the head of the cia. and we don't know what he is saying, but if he's saying this is the deal -- i have heard from other diplomatic sources in delhi that hamas is more or less for unquote agreed to what israel had agreed to, with some very small changes here and there. so that could cover a multitude of details. christian: just a quick final one. a lot of activity today in rafah . israelis saying today they hit 50 targets, another big explosion in the last hour. you can see that in two directions. one, obviously they are softening up rafah for a ground offensive they have said is

coming. or you can see it the other way, that they feel time is running out. jeremy: yeah. the americans today, the white house spokespeople also, quoting joe biden, have been saying that he repeated in his call earlier today with netanyahu that there must be no ground operation in rafah. that puts civilian lives at risks. so they are being very, very clear about that, the americans. they are not talking about what hamas may or may not have agreed to at this point, but they are saying that. so that is one very clear message coming from the american side. christian: jeremy, thank you. here is to what is being negotiated, palestinian civilians have been leaving rafah today after israel ordered 100,000 people to leave an area in certain district of the town. the ibf say they struck more than 50 territories are out the day-to-day. just hours after the evacuation order was issued. pictures we received show the

evacuation beginning. those leaving rafah are being toward -- being described as a tw -- as an expanded humanitarian zone east of khan younis. our correspondent has this report. reporter: a they that would end with hopeful news began with foreboding. leaflets telling people to go. many have been displaced before. but still, they were told to leave. everyone, no matter how old, how young, or how vulnerable. >> [speaking another language] reporter: the so-called

humanitarian zones were to be expanded. but they have never been safe from sickness, hunger, or war. these may have been some of the last airstrikes, if the cease-fire can be made to work. 11 houses hit in rafah. the cease-fire news was hours away yet. >> [speaking another language] reporter: mother, and refugee. the orders to leave came amid stalled talks and violent signals. hamas attacked israeli troops near the main crossing here yesterday, killing three soldiers. israel struck the launchers, and before the hamas announcement, was still determined to keep

fighting. >> the one thing which we won't allow is for hamas to remain standing at the end of this war. if that happens, it will be a disastrous consequence for israel. reporter: today, they buried the latest of rafah's dead. an orphan, grieved by his relative. his family was killed during the war, she says. even he was killed. such images have dominated the war. the news about a cease-fire will give some hope that these might be among the last. fergal keane, bbc news. christian: bradley bowman is senior director of the center on military and political power and a former blackhawk pilot, a 15 year veteran of the u.s. army. thank you for being on the program tonight.

we are being told that the cease-fire talks went on sunday and monday. the latest proposal that hamas agreed to was made to the israelis on april 27 with no changes to major parts of it. so what do you think the disagreement is tonight? bradley: the outlines of what hamas has reportedly agreed to are unclear, as you have been reporting there at bbc. i would suspect that a lot of the disagreement, if there is some, is centered on whether it is a permanent or temporary cease-fire. obviously hamas from my perspective wants a permanent cease-fire so they can survive and conduct another october 7 in the future. to israel that is obviously unacceptable. they are probably willing to accept a tempora cease-fire and get hostages released, reduce some pressure coming from washington, get more humanitarian assistance. but sooner or later they are going to want to go into rafah to get the remaining battalions

there. christian: but the problem, as the white house would see it, is if there was an expanded operation in rafah, then all the potential that there is in this proposal would disappear, not to mention the day after proposals they had been talking about with the saudis. bradley: it is interesting, often the idf operations, particularly the operations that have been trumpeted about going into rafah, are characterized as the problem. i would say that is probably the reason why we have a deal. if hamas can sit there in safety, why would they ever negotiate in good faith? it's been nice for them. if there is anything pushing hamas to negotiate, this terrorist group, it is probably israel dropping leaflets saying we are coming. christian: for you, the deal hamas has accepted tonight, it was the last life raft with the

plans for rafah now unfolding? bradley: i am suggesting hypotheses that israeli military operations are one of the reasons why if we get a deal that we got a deal. why else would hamas negotiate in good faith when israel is increasingly demonized on the international stage? and its best friend is joining the gang circling israel in its moment of vulnerability and danger. christian: put that to one side for a second. the ball is back now in prime minister netanyahu's court, and there's a certain amount that needs to be discussed in washington now that puts a lot of pressure on joe biden. he has delivered a proposal which hamas has accepted. how does he get it over the line? bradley: to me, it's unclear whether there is alignment between with the biden administration has wanted and what hamas has agreed to. to me, that's tbd. i think that daylight, if there

is any between with the biden administration has been pushing for and what hamas has agreed to, will be decisive. but i have no doubt the biden administration will apply additional pressure against israel. again, i think of it will come down to the permanent versus temporary, because that is the fundamental point of tension between israel and the terrorist organization hamas. christian: there is a quick line of copy hear from reuters. prime minister netanyahu sandy work sash -- saying israel will continue its war operation into rafah. he says although the hamas proposal is far from meeting isra's demands, israel will send a working delegation to negotiate further. there are obviously two options before the israeli cabinet at the moment. one is to get rid of the battalions they still think are there in rafah. the other is to bring the hostages home.

but a lot of people say they are mutually incompatible, those two objectives. bradley: i am putting forward the suggestion i don't think they are. israeli military operations, the actual conduct of those operations and the threat of additional operations applies pressure on hamas to deal in good faith, as much as a terrorist organization to do that. dealing in good faith means at least a temporary cease-fire and the release of some hostages. they keep getting framed as intention with one another and i'm not sure i understand that. christian: around the world and across the u.k., you are watching bbc news. for our u.k. viewers, let's have a look at some stories making headlines. scotland has a new leader for the scottish national party. john swinney has been confirmed in the rollout and no challengers emerged. he will become scotland's first minister. he succeeds the outgoing first minister who resigned after the

collapse of his coalition government. the boss of hero tunnel has insisted they will not be long queues of cars at terminals where the newu chapel system starts in october. british people heading to and from europe will need to register fingerprints and a photo at the border, which has prompted warnings of delays. military celebrations have been taking place in london and around the u.k. today to mark the first anniversary of the coronation of king charles and queen camilla. gun salutes were heard across london with 41 voeys fired at noon by the king's royal horse artillery. pictures there. the inig -- king recently returned to his public engageme. you're watching bbc news. and the european commission have been holding talks in paris today where ukraine and trade were dominating discussion. opening remarks at the palace,

emmanuel macron told xi jinping coordination with china on ukraine in the middle east was crucial. the europeans are hoping to persuade china's leader to refrain from supplying russia with potential war materials. he has urged the eu to remain committed to a partnership with china amid tensions over trade. isabel hilton is the founder of the china dialogue and visiting professor and gave me her assessment on the situation. >> china likes to present itself as mediator. and they put forward about a year ago what it called a peace plan which was really a series of bullet points. what china does not do is the act of diplomacy that is required actually to mediate. the problem with china is mediating. yes, china has enormous influence on putin because putin essentially cannot survive without xi jinping, but xi

jinping wants putin to survive. china has given cover for putin for two years now, it does not inspire confidence in ukraine that whatever china were to propose would be to their advantage. i think they would like china to use its influence but theyould not trust china to come up with an offer that ukraine would find acceptable. so it is pretty mixed. but again, china has been very passive in this. and there is not much sign that china is going to get more active at all. christian: it is interesting to me that he brought ursula von der leyen into the discussions today. they traveled together last year to china, but she seems to take a more hawkish position vis-a-vis china than perhaps chancellor scholz does. isabel: ursula von der leyen definitely takes a more hawkish positi. she has initiated a whole series

of trade probes, for example, at the request of macro but i don't think schulz is very happy with them. i think he is more concerned about preserving the trade germany has with china rather than being as assertive as the commission would now like to be over things like subsidies. with the imbalance of trade is such that von der leyen is pretty robust on this. xi jinping would much rather deal with macron. he'd much rather deal with scholz. he would definitely not prefer to deal with ursula von der leyen. christian: i was just going to say, this comes quite quickly on the back of president macron's speech the other week in which he talked about europe needing to be more assertive to defend its own interests. so presumably, ursula von der len was brought in with that

very much in mind. isabel: i think that she was there because -- for example, the trade probes are very active. and if we are looking to have a constructive conversation with china there are a number of serious structural issues that have to be resolved. macron is popular was xi jinping because of this talk of strategic autonomy for europe and that is a very long-standing french position. general de gaulle s pretty anti-american and he regarded the european union as a force multiplier for french influence and macron is very much in the same old. and that is music to xi jinping's ears. what xi jinping wants to do is divide the eu from the u.s. it does not want to face an alliance of washington and brussels, let alone all the other european capitals. so it's greatly to china's

advantage to courage macron in the idea that europe needs to be strategic and autonomous. and that means from thunited states. that is what he is trying to bring about. christian: isabel hilton speaking to me earlier. day two of that summit taking place tomorrow. we're focusing tonight on events in the middle east, a fast-moving situation with news that hamas has accepted the terms of a cease-fire deal, but prime minister netanyahu saying in the last few minutes that the war cabinet has decided to continue its operations in rafah to pressure hamas into releasing hostages and will not be accepting cease-fire. these are the live pictures in rafah. a little more subdued than the earlier celebrations we saw. in the last few minutes we have been hearing more targeted airstrikes in rafah. quite a busy day in terms of the military picture in rafah.

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