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vaidyanathan. you are watching "the context" here on bbc news. pres. biden: israel has offered a comprehensive the proposal, a roadmap for an enduring cease-fire and release of all hostages. >> this is a moment for all size to take the deal, they are dangling out wording about a permanent cease-fire in front of hamas but i'm not sure it is enough to bring them back. ♪ rajini: cease-fire proposal on the table in the middle east. president biden says israel has offered a new deal to hamas which would see an additional six-week pause in fighting as talks continue on a permanent cease-fire and on rebuilding gaza. we will have the latest from washington, d.c. and jerusalem. also tonight, billionaire

businessman, past president, now convicted criminal. donald trump had out of the u.s. juice system after a jury in new york found him guilty in his hush money trial on thursday. today, he delivered a rambling response to the verdict. we will take a look at what comes next legally and politically. and after days of uncertainty, labor leader sir keir starmer says that diane abbott can run on his party's ticket. we will bring you up-to-date on everythinglse happening on the campaign trail here in the u.k.. for weeks now, there have been talks and anticipation around a cease-fire deal to end the conflict in gaza. and for weeks those talks and their anticipation has led to nothing. could there be a breakthrough this evening? president biden has been speaking in the last few hours and says israel submitted a comprehensive new proposal for a cease-fire to end its war with hamas.

the plan would involve the withdrawal of israeli troops from populated areas of gaza as well as the release of israeli hostages. the president says the proposal has been sent to the palestinian side and he urged hamas to accept it. let's listen to more of what the president had to say. pres. biden: for the past several months, my negotiators of foreign policy intelligence community and the like have been relentlessly focused not just on a cease-fire that would inevitably be fragile and temporary, but on a durable end to the more, that has been the focus. one that brings all the hostages home, ensures israel's security, create a better day after in gaza without hamas in power. it sets the stage for a political settlement that provides a better future for israelis and palestinians alike. rajini: president biden speaking earlier at the white house.

joining me now is our middle east correspondent. hugo, what is different in this new pposal that has come from israel? four weeks, we have been hearing about different operas and deals from both sides. hugo: this proposal is similar to a proposal that was put forward by egypt, which has been acting as a mediator in these negotiations. it is a three-phase proposal. first phase is a six-week cease-fire that would lead to the release of some of the hostages who are now being held in gaza. it would see negotiations happen for a permanent cease-fire. we know that yesterday, hamas that it would not engage in operations before the end of the war, and we have seen in israel, prime minister benjamin

netanyahu has rejected any idea of a permanent cease-fire in gaza before the end of the war, before he could achieve the goals of the war. so it's interesting that this plan was announced by president biden. he didn't mention prime minister netanyahu. also, we know this is likely to be unpopular with so supporters, far right supporters of the prime minister who rejected the idea of reaching a deal with hamas. they say the war must continue until hamas is defeated and also until all the hostages are freed. they say military pressure is the only way to bring the hostages back. the president desibed this deal as a truly historic moment. he urged hamas to accept the deal, said the deal was presented to hamas by qatar, which has also been acting as mediators in this negotiations. rajini: what comes next, we wait

for a response from hamas? hugo: i think now the ball is in hamas' court, waiting to see what kind of reaction will come from hamas. we are also waiting to hear from prime minister netanyahu, from senior israeli officials. the speech from president biden came after the start of the jewish holiday here, so i think it will take some time before we hear from some key israeli officials. but again, prime minister netanyahu has been under pressure from the families of the hostages that remain in captivity in gaza, and also from international leaders to present a proposal for a cease-fire. on the other hand, hamas has also been under a lot of pressure to accept a deal. obviously, we have seen the humanitarian crisis in gaza continues. more than 36,000 palestinians have been killed as a result of

this conflict. a new proposal being put forward by the israelis according to president biden. so now we are waiting to hear what kind of reaction will come from hamas. rajini: thank you very much for that. we are just hearing from the israeli prime minister's office, statement here that has come into us by the reuters news agency, which says the gaza war would not end until all goals are achieved, including a return of all hostages and the destruction of hamas. we will bring you a reaction from all sides of those proposals which has been announced by the white house. in 2015, he glided down an escalator in trump tower, announcing his run for the highest office in america. today, donald trump stood in that very same building, and a lot has changed. after a jury in his home city found him guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records, the former president

delivered a rambling, at times incoherent 40-minute long speech attacking his opponent, claiming the trial was rigged and he will appeal. thursday afternoon on day two of their deliberations, the jury found mr. trump covered up the hush money payment to the former adult film star stormy daniels. his sentencing is set for july 11 and could face prison but legal experts say a fine is more likely. just four days later on july 15, it's likely he will be officially crowned as the republican candite for the election at their national convention. in so many ways, this story is unprecedend and of course unpredictable. all of this coming as the u.s. heads toward an election months away. we will be discussing the following with our panel of experts shortly. first, let us start with this report from my colleague gary o'donoghue in new york. >> donald trump, guilty. >> watershed moment in this nation's history.

>> first former president of the united states to be convicted on criminal charges. >> america woke up to news this morning that if you would have ever imagined, a country that holds itself up as an example to the rest of the world now with a former president who is a criminal. inside thiiconic building that launched the extraordinary political career nearly 10 years ago, donald trump about to fight on. >> this is a scam, this is a rigged trial, it shouldn't have been in that venue, we shouldn't have had that judge. >> eight years ago, donald trump famously said he could shoot someone right here in the middle of 5th ave and not lose voters. now he really is a criminal, multiple times over. those voters may well get their chance to prove him right or wrong. >> staten island was the only one of new york's five boroughs to vote for the quintessential new yorker donald trump in both 2016 and 2020.

commuters are arriving from the island for work today were remaining loyal. >> i love trump. why? because he is going to make america great again. >> what do you think of the conviction? >> he is still going to be president. i have to get to work. joe biden is out. >> use a convicted felon. i don't know what this jury was thinking. >> people will still vote for him anyway. >> according to the trump campaign, more than $34 million was raised from small donors in the hours following the guilty verdict, almost doubling their previous daily record. but half this divided country believes donald trump got what was coming to him. >> i don't know what to say. i didn't think this was actually going to happen. i cannot believe it. it is about time he is held accountable for something.

it is amazing. >> donald trump will undoubtedly appeal against this verdict, but that won't happen for months. before that, he will be sentenced and will enter the final lap of his presidential election with a criminal conviction around his neck. this is uncharted territory in the 250-year history of this country. rajini: gary o'donoghue reporting from new york. we have the perfect panel of experts to react to the guilty verdict and what they might mean for november's election. on the legal fallout, we have a former justice of the southern district of new york, on what the former president might be thinng, we have his former communications director, and when it comes to what voters are thinking, who better than a professor who is polling model as successfully predicted the winner of every u.s. presidential race since 1984.

what a panel. shira, i'm going to start with the legal stuff next. we heard from mr. trump today, as we've been saying, pretty rambling, could not make sense of all of it, but he claimed that the courts in the legal system was rigged, says he wants to appeal the verdict. so what could happen next in terms of what measures he might be able to take, given that he is very unhappy? >> yes, he is very unhappy and rightfully so, in the sense that he is now a convicted felon on 34 counts, 34 crimes. the next thing that happens is the sentencing on july 11. you don't file the appeal until after the sentence. the judge gets a lot of input. the probation department sends a report, each side's lawyers is to ask for the sentence i think is appropriate, people write letters in support or against, and the judge considers all of that information and then we'll decide what sentence to give.

of course, everyone wonders is the sentence going to include any jail time or not? i don't have a crystal ball. but my guess at the moment is that it will include a short period in jail, i'm guessing, somewhere between three and six months. but will not go into the prison right after the sentence because 100% i'm sure the judge will give him what is called bail pending appeal. he will immediately file his appeal, the judge will say you can remain out until after the appeal is done, and the appeal could take a year or two. there are two levels of courts, maybe three to which he can appeal. first he appeal to the appellate court in new york and then to the high court in new york, new york court of appeals, then he may try the supreme court if he loses in the other courts. rajini: we can anticipate, given what we have heard from him today, that he is likely to file an appeal, is that we head

toward the presidential election, he is likely to be anointed the candidate at the rnc in july, and he has these appeals of various levels of the u.s. court system hanging in the background. so he could be appealing even when he is potentially in the white house. >> not could be, he will be filing an appeal immediately after the sentence, no question about that. yes, it will take him past the election. if he wins, he will be president while his appeal is before three quarts. -- courts. rajini: ryan, have you spoken to mr. trump or people close to him since the last 24 hours? >> thank you for having me. i haven't spoken with the president directly but i have spoken with the leadership of the campaign. rajini: what do they say? >> they expected this. this was a manhattan jury in the state of new york.

they anticipated it. that is why you saw them have such a strong pr effort with respect to the trial. they knew this was going to be the beginning of the process for them, not the end of it. president trump will have a quick appeal, vigorous. he has some lawyers on the left, some on the right, who are saying there is a strong case for appeal. the question becomes what is the impact on the election? i think we are seeing it immediately right now. donald trump is breaking fundraising records in a short amount of time, and joe biden isn't. that says something about where the energy is in the selection. rajini: pretty staggering when he talked about how many people have donated to his campaign since that verdict came in. let's bring alan in on that point. i interviewed you in 2016 about this time in the campaign season, i asked you to predict who was going to win. you got it right and you said mr. trump would be in the white

house, and he sure was. what do you think will happen now given the verdicts of guilty? >> all due respect to the last speaker, a lot of intelligent things to say, any assessment, and he pondered to -- punditry today or tomorrow about the effect of this verdict, you should take it and do with it the great yiddish philosopher, david hume, works of superstition. consign them to the flames. they have no value whatsoever. i do have a prediction system however of 13 keys to the white house which has been right since 1984, and the way it works, six of the 13 go against the white house party, they are the predicted loser. otherwise they are the predicted winner. i have not made a final prediction yet. but my keys, which are independent of this, look at the fundamentals of an election, a lot would have to go wrong for biden to lose.

he is down only two keys and there are four shaky keys, social unrest, foreign policy, success and failure, and third-party. now, my keys are based on history. it's possible that an event like this, which you say is without precedent in u.s. history, potentially cataclysmic, could have an effect on the election outside the keys. the speaker was right, it is not going to dent his core base, but even if it eroded 2% or 3%, that could be fatal. what we have to look at are the swing voters, moderate voters, independent voters. trump cannot win with his base alone. those are the voters who might be vulnerable to reacting against a felon who was not convicted by joe biden or his political enemies, but by a jury of 12 persons, in a trial that was not rigged, the judge bent

over backwards for trump, trump and his lawyers had plenty of chances to vet the jury. they had the chance to put on a case and they didn't. they put on one witness who backfired. rajini: stay with us. thank you. it might be worth going to the bookmakers every time allen says something like this because he is right. thank you for taking us through the legal timeline and the legal ramifications. we appreciate that. now we are going to take a short break and will be hearing from a trump motor about whether that conviction impacts the way that they will cast a ballot in november. around the world and across the u.k., this is bbc news.

♪ rajini: so, what difference will mr. trump's conviction make? will it turn away his loyal supporters or will it harden their resolve?

what difference will it make to swing voters? a survey overnight from reuters found that most trump supporters, 56%, say that conviction will have no impact on the way they vote. 10% say they are less likely to vote for the former president about 35% said that conviction makes them more likely to vote for donald trump. a sign of the unwavering support for the presumptive republican nominee. now it's time to speak to one diehard trump voter, sandra wong . i first met her when i was covering the 2016 election. one of the many diehard trump fans i met on my travels when i was covering the campaign. sandra liv in the key swing state of florida. i met her twice. she told me that she loved mr. trump even more than before. how does sandra feel now especially after yesterday's

verdict? we had to get her on "the context" to find out. hello, sandra. nice to see you. >> nice to hear from you. rajini: are you still going to vote for mr. trump? >> more than ever. we are maga. more than ever. rajini: there are many people who will be watching this around the world and say why is sandra still going to vote for donald trump? he is now a convicted criminal. he has a slew of other cases he faces as well. he is controversial. why would anyone still vote for him? that is what some people will ask. we will put that to you, what is your answer to that? >> i am a well-informed voter. when you say convicted, who convicted him? not the people of the united states. a minority who were seeking a political revenge on a man that

they know is sure to win in november. rajini: sandra, is there anything donald trump can do to put you off him? >> [laughter] so far, he has not. i have not heard anything from him that would make me change my mind. rajini: if he ends up being put behind bars, how would you feel about that? >> it doesn't change my mind. there are a lot of innocent people in prison. a lot of them. so, those people that are outside, seeing what is going on in the media, is now more convinced than ever to vote for an innocent man. innocent. rajini: sandra, what issues will

matter to you in this election? it sounds like no matter what donald trump says, whatever policye has, he will always be your man. >> yes. i support everything he is for, which is putting america first, border control, pro-life, freedom of religion. those are my views. that is what i support. rajini: sandra, thank you very much for answering the questions. you are even more of a diehard trump van dyne when i met you on from where i've been before., maybe i will visit again. thank you for the visit, sandra. >> thank you. rajini: always nice to catch up with people that you meet went out on your travels. brian, i can see you on my

screen when i was talking to sandra. you were beaming. >> what a lovely woman. rajini: you were beaming for another reason, i know. >> i was entertained by it. people ask, what is president trump's power? he ability to connect to people. he clearly connected with sandra in a way that he has never done before. that is the magnetism and draw. she is not the same person i've seen have that reaction and it reminds me of that. i'm sure we will see it along the way. rajini: i asked the question but i want to ask you the same. what could donald trump do to really put you off of him? >> talk seriously about a third term. rajini: [laughter] not expecting that answer. people like you, sandra, other people i've met in 2016 will i still remain in touch with, they called themselves the deplorables.

it is like a blind faith for donald trump, no matter what, even if he is convicted and all the other cases he faces. he himself said that he could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and do whatever and still have that support. >> that is where our politics is day, red versus blue, republican versus democrat. you saw this take place during obama. never any disagreement in anything there, which is bizarre. usually with senior level you have disagreements but you had a bunch of sycophants saying yes, yes. it happens in both parties, the politics is where it is. if the roles were rersed -- certainly are with respect to hunter biden -- you see the same rationalization taking place. rajini: as someone who used to be the comms director for donald trump, what would you have said to him today after he finished

that ramble? it is fair to call it that. >> i wouldn't call it a ramble. this audience is not you, not even me most of the time. his audience is working class, blue-collar voters. right now, the deck is stacked. i agree with the working class folks, that the system is stacked against them economically, the american system is stacked against them politically. look at me, now the system is stacked against me judicially. that connects him with the working class blue caller voter. rajini: ok. we will be back with you after a short break. i'm rajini vaidyanathan. you have been watching "the context" here on bbc news. announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james.

cunard is a proud supporter of public television. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer:et the free pbs app now and stream the best of pbs.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... woman: two retiring executives turn their focus to greyhounds, giving these former race dogs a real chance to win. a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you,