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'. this is "t context." '. >> what i intend to lead is a political revolt. yes, a remote for your. turning off our backs on the political status quo. it doesn't work. nothing in this country works anymore. she's the public your mind? >> who says i have? should this be said 10 days ago you weren't going to the stunned. what made you change? >> if you are going to standor they thought, this is a good place to stand. some of the things he says and does. >> i wouldn't want him running the country. it's good or [laughs] ♪

christiane: well so he is running for the nigel farage conference today he is taking over to run as leader of the u.k.. he will launch his candidacy tomorrow. we will get the view of two months shortly. saskia starmer says his country's defense will be in safe hands with deliverables government but because opposition is not being honest about the numbers from we will get the views from the defense industry. also, pressure is bunting on israeli prime minister netanyahu on the cease-fire proposal. still no word from hamas. we have an expert for the list on to discuss this from all sides. very good evening. there has been no end to speculation on what part of nigel farage would play in this election, whether he would stand conservatives.even for the well, now we know.

he has taken full charge of the reform party, assuming power from the former leader, richard tivce, and tomorrow he was a nai is running for the mp. the last run in i-19. here he is making the announcement this afternoon. >> what i intend to lead is a political revolt. yes, a revolt. a turning of our backs of the political status quo. it doesn't work. nothing in this country works anymore. the health service does not work for the roads don't work. none of our public services are up to scratch. christian: with me is to montgomery, founder of conservative home. there was a feeling that so far the campaign had failed to ignite. now we have some fireworks. [laughter] guest: fireworks in the house,

kristin. but i don't think it is a good evening for the conservative party. a couple of ago when nigel farage because he was not standing, a very good esteemed political consultant i know said that might save the la conservative party 3240 six. the. this morning said that conservative party was attracted within about 140 seats and that was before farage entered the fray. he is a conservative destroyer and has the potential to offend upend this election and turn it into a real catastrophe for rishi sunak's party. christian: you sound the most excited about it. >> yeah. i am excited. the election was dour up until this moment and this will energize the election is not an over that will help my party, but people at least now have someone who they can rally around and there will be slice of conservative voters who have

seen what nigel farage said today, who will have nodded throughout his message and i don't know how rishi sunak will accounts to that. i was someone who argues that rishi sunak should haveeen replaced as the tory leader. it's too late for that now. there will be a lot of shaking of hands -- shaking of heads in tory hq where there was a nodding of heads among conservative vots today. christian: you may have heard of the speculation given some of the worst floating sock for conservatives that maybe reform emerges as the new force, the new opposition. if humans, it doesn't become -- if he wins, does not become more likely? guest: i think so. the polling out already but suggests that nigel farage will win in that seat for the nigel farage inside the house of commons, the first time you will have seen that, that puts the

cut amongst the pigeons. it means whoever takes on the conservative party -- takes over the course of at the next election, nigel farage has said he doesn't just plan to lead reform for the election campaign, he plans to lead reform for five years. if he is leading in the form of the conservative leader, some of the interesting sites will not be between the nude of the government, as i am sure we are going to see emerge, and the opposition. it will be between the opposition parties. this is over than a nightmare for the right. the right has dominated because it's vote has been united, it's the left of it has been disunited between the s&p, the greens, the liberal democrats. if we now have the right divided between the conservative party and reform, we could enter a period where the conservative party is not just on the back

foot after the selection, but potentially on the back foot for quite some time if they can't solve this division problem. christian: christian: good to talk to you tonight, as ever, thanks for coming on the program. guest: thank you. christian: here is a list of candidates we know so far standing in the claxton constituency. the bbc news website have the complete list was there all confirmed. the last labor leader was a longtime supporter of the campaign for nuclear disarmament food jeremy corbyn but i guess renewing of trident in 2016 and said if he were elected prime minister, he would instruct the u.k. defense chiefs never to use them. keir starmer is different from what he says under his leadership, second or will always come first and, yes prepare to push the button.

that qassem something to say at labour's spending plans don't add up. half of the shadow bands were part of that vote against trident into assistant. our political watching. reporter: it's a shine to military service. to do the men who wants to be prime minister wants to convince you the country will be safe in his hands. look at those around him. if you have each served in the forces. they are now the number >> national security is the most urgent issue of our times. something which, of course, is always true, and which for us, if we are privileged to serve our country, will become our solemn responsibility. reporter: and of labor is promising to keep the uk's nuclear weapons if it rains. keir starmer, you could be prime minister next month. if circumstances necessitated it, would you authorize the firing of nuclear weapons, yes or no? >> it's a vital part of over defense and of course that means we have to be prepared to use it.

reporter: how things have changed. i can't imagine being invited to a place like this for a speech by his predecessor jeremy corbyn. >> i want to be here because of my belief in a nuclear-free future! reporter: here addressing a campaign for nuclear disarmament rally in 2016. in that same year, half a dozen members of the current shadow cabinet voted against renewing the case's nuclear weapons doesn't renewing the u.k.'s nuclear weapons. . >> i need this party. i have changed this part of. if we are privileged to come into serve, i will be the prime minister of the u.k. and i have got my hope shadow cabinet behind me. reporter: one of those opponents years ago, is now labeled, for she said something to do that her boss did not. cannot disarmament of nuclear weapons but that has to be done

in combinaon with other countries. reporter: the scottish national party are opposed to nuclear weapons. the liberal democrats criticize conservative cuts to the army. and the tories are having a go at labour. >> you have keir starmer promising everything on defense, 2.5% when conditions allow. i would love to do everything when conditions allow. it just can't believe a word this guy says. reporter: you have talked about labour spending 2.5% of national income on defense that you have not but timeframe on it. >> we must increase defense spending to do with the increasing threats we face. reporter: by when? >> we will undertake a defense reviewing the first year where we will look at the threats we face, the capabilities we need and set the plan to hit 2.5% as part of that review. reporter: labour look and sound very different on defense than they did. the question for you is how that might change your view of them or not. chris mason, bbc news.

christian: as christmassy, seth keir starmer used his peaks today to read, live birth to boosting defense spending to 2.5% of gdp but without setting the delay. prime minister sunak has vowed to reach the target by 2030 even elected political let's get the view from the security and intelligence on this trip, my guest served in the forces and he is a ceo of a defense company. there will be a triple lock on a nuclear, there would be a spending review. are you a short by what you heard from labour today? guest: no. i am not desperately a very short by the conservative pledge to reach 2.5% by 2013 which i think the drop on the ocean of what is native, this is an even more vague from some thought and nobody in the military for the sins he the words "we will do a review in the first year."

that is 12 months with no further action despite a mission that was given in a high-risk environment, a high risk world, and we're in a high-risk neighborhood at the moment with what russia is doing. if you get the war he wanted when you are ready for it at the time you plan. and there is nothing you say, labor could be in power in just over four weeks and we need to make quick decisions for going about butler little allow ukraine to use british-supplied weapons. so the hard decisions will come very quickly. i don't think there is time to sit and think of a future plan, we need to get straight into it. christian: both parties are guilty of hollowing out defense, but you are right, the conservatives haven't been great either. in 2010 it was at 2.4%, it went down to 2.1% after the annexation of crimea and it will not go back up to 2.5% until 2030. it doesn't seem as though there

is much honesty in the debate on either side. guest: even a year ago, quite recently i was asked a question about why should people care about defense when they think about hospitals and schools and other things. the problem with defense is you have no return on it. it is effectively an insurance policy and if you want peace, prepare for war is a truism, the weaker you are, the less capable you are. we have to restore balance whether it is threats here at home or threats to our interests will benefit it has been hollowed out since 1990, we have drifted about what our mission and purposes and that is only within the last year or so that people have decided to wake up and say actually, this is a bit urgent. so it's good that both sides are talking about this in the campaign, because a year ago it was unclear whether this would even be mentioned in the election campaign.

christian: you work in the risk and security business and speak to defense contractors, the lead times in manufacturing for defense are longing to the distance. do they need to commitments that are being made? this certainly if you are gog for complicated things. we think we have lots of time to prepare, if the village is moving at pace, if we waiting if you can get things back if you look at south korea, for example, would have had in helping implement, to have this up things from a factory straight into service. you can't do these things if there is urgency. i think we have just fallen into this habit for decades of thinking we have all the time of the world and defense is an academic exercise. the reality is different. we need to be ready and resilience to deal with things we may not even see coming yet, but again, does other things that will surprise us and that is not the time to be wondering where we are going to find

people and answers from, it'll be too late one of christian: the issues arising as a parody from letters from justin, thinking indeed. around the world and the first thing you say, you're watching is. for our u.k.'s universe were still with us, have a look at some of the stories today. the israeli army and the death of four police hostages in gaza, a community in israel confirm the death of one of them as unfolds is many british hostage and adopted by hamas on october 7. the kibbutz has named him. i must a video of him earlier last month from the group said he died after being badly wounded, the government has told the high court today there will be a delay before they begin sending us sylum-seekers tumor rwanda from the lawyers for the home secretary confirmed before a senior judge that there will be no flies before july 24, almost three weeks after the general election. the online fashion giant shein

is reported to be about to float on the london stock exchange, the initial valuation could be 50 million pounds. it was was turned away by the regulators of the new york stock exchange because of its perceived links, new or otherwise, to the chinese government. you're watching bbc news. there is ready for mr. benjamin netanyahu, will soon be forced to choose from and agree to the cease-fire deal with hamas back by the white house, or keep his government in power. the deal which president biden outlined on friday 30 leads to a permanent, skits may be prepared to accept. but his coalition includes the thyroid defense minister who today that the far-right minister who today said he would quit the coalition if this is fair do is agree to 8news poll suggests 40% of the province of the deal, 37% are opposed, 40%

believe that you would put a final end to the war in the gaza strip whereas 34 percent believe is vote for one day return to fighting even if an agreement is signed. generally from tel aviv tonight is the political analyst from israel, in washington, a former u.s. deputy assistant secretary of state. in london, the director of forward thinking, who helped bring the two sides together in 2011 to win the release of an israeli soldier. welcome to you all. let me start with you. perhaps you could tell us what has happened in israel today and the murmurings we are starting to get on the hard right of benjamin netanyahu she constitution. guest: thank you for having me. these are not murmurings, these are part of netanyahu's original prewar coalition that since the war, have taken a hard line against any hostage deal that would include a cease-fire, one of those parties actually voted

against the original postage due in november. both of party leaders have reiterated they would leave the government if the current finance minister spend its money beer. opposition party has reiterated in his offer that he has made for months now that he would give the government support as an opposition member or join the expanded war cabinet coalition if there is a hostage deal, just to help support the deal. he has repeated that again today, but netanya has options but from his perspective, none of them are particularly good. politically, the only good thing for him is to stay with his original coalition. but as you pointed out in the survey, and that affects many service, the majority of his writings support hostage release, they are desperate -- the majority of israelis support a hostage release. it only exacerbates that very

deep anguish among both the hostage families, and the general public. christian: oliver, in the last few minutes, joe biden has urged qatar's leader to use all appropriate measures to secure hamas book acceptance of this deal. it is ironic that survival for the two parties to this agreement is very much on the line here for hamas and transfer benjamin netanyahu. guest: yes, but i think, how musket has already indicated a positive response, which is a big change. because let's remind ourselves, what is on the table is a rehash of what has been an offer for several months. it went nowhere. semy hope would be yes, this wod be a breakthrough from it my suspicion is that because of the obstacles, part of what you have outlined already, that we will

go nowhere and that this conversation is just a distraction, again, of the reality of what is happening on the ground in gaza. christian: joe, benjamin netanyahu is trapped her isn't he? i mean, biden says he expects israel to sign it. the opposition leader is saying he will support it. have the u.s. administration put him in that trap? guest: christian, benjamin netanyahu is a living on, but i think what president biden did on friday afternoon was make a decision that he needed to go public now and by doing that, he could put pressure on netanyahu to close this deal. president biden is not a stranger to hard, multilateral diplomatic negotiations. he built the coalition to support ukraine after russia was threatening to invade. this happened over multiple months.

rebuilding nato. he has been building up alliances in the asia pacific regarding china and of course he deals with the republicans of seems to get a lot of bills through congress. what he is doing now is he sees that opportunity. there are a lot of players involved. and the israeli body politic once the hostages released. and this is the kind of public pressure now that is going to really put netanyahu on the squeeze. what is his alternative to this? the united states has been backing him up fulltilt from i think president biden has read the room and said that this is the moment to strike publicly. christian: this deal, as oliver says, it has been around for some weeks and months. that former prime minister said today, as with america, this is the deal that netanyahu proposed, yet, he seems to be saying that there are parts missing from it. is he playing for time?

guest: of course, he is playing for time, what i was trying to explain before about the politics basically indicates exactly how netaahu is thinking of this issue. from his perspective, it's about his political survival and his coalition. he is frankly completely lost touch with both where i explained. polls show the israeli majority is going, and also from the perspective of the hostage families. this is not the first thing on his mind. the release of living hostages, never mind is not only lack of interest in the devastation in gaza and the death of civilians, basically because he is beholden to right-wing forces acquiescing to that approach. so he is fighting for time primarily because he sees this through a political lens. the other thing to keep in mind is that sooner or later, israel will be going to elections, presumably before the scheduled elections of 2026, israel rarely

sees it last for a full term. i think he is just trying to go as long as possible before elections are called, stave off the current crisis and wait for the next one because there are other looming crises, and have the prescription law coming up for the ultra-orthodox -- any number of crises that could topple his government and it seems like he is doing this minute to minute, typical of his approach for years. christian: there are splits we should not ignore it within how musket as well. the one who is closest to the leader in gaza, says he will not accept that palestinian authority running the country, or any troops being sent into gaza, they will be treated like dealing with food that would be a huge concern to the white house, that they can put into solutions the next day that they are promising. guest: that is where down the line. the immediate challenge that most gazans would want, is an

immediate stop to the current war permit because let's face it, 2.3 million every day, have to face life-changing conditions. and it has become totally intolerable. so i think the focus should be, as biden said, it's time to end the war. but for me, the obstacle to them achieving that is precisely what his response must netanyahu said, that the war will not end until how musket is eliminated. that incompatibility is there and i don't think we should lose sight for that. it's too early to see what would happen if the war and spoon it we have to address that, biden has to have the moral courage to walk the talk and take action to ensure that the war does end. christian: what would happen, joe, if this were rejected by either side and it drags on into

the presidential campaign? what do you think there will do next? guest: that is a nightmare scenario. the president has put it out on the line and if the parties, is israel turns its back on the president, he will be forced to move to tougher measures. and there are tougher measures available in the united states in terms of our aid program, in terms of oversight, in terms of public scholarly notes and working the phones. and i think there with the white house has freedom to this desk is important in saying that this is up to how musket through that essentially we the united states believe israel has already agreed to this. so in many ways, our discussion right now is based upon the idea that both sides still need to agree. the white house believes it has israel already there. that is why it is calling on catarrh and our allies talk to him must daily and indirectly, to lean in and get how musket's

to agree to it. will gets blamed is often times what happens in thesmiddle eastern negotiations, each side thinks that somehow advantages them. i think the president will try to foreclose the idea of the blame game and try to get how musket blocked him thinking he has israel already on his side. christian: the extended invite to netanyahu to speak to the joint session of congress, is that something biden is in favor of? guest: he is neutral on that one, i am sure they are not happy over at the white house so that this is a pop bipartisan invitation was no date yet, my guess is that it will happen before the aust recess and away from the fall activities. but if it comes and there is no deal and we continue to see the fighting as it is right now, it be politically toxic here in the united states.

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