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and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. announcer: and now, "bbc news" ♪ christian: hello. ♪ christian fraser, and this is "the context." >> migration is far too high. it is twice as high as it was when we were in the eu. that is the irony of it. >> we recognize that companies like this will need some levels of migration. but we also recognize that migration puts pressure on public services. getting the balance right is a composition at is long overdue. >> we should deport people who come to people illegally, and we used to. the last year of the labour government we departed 45,000 people. now we' lucky if we deport

more than five. >> standing at this podium is a little later are the two men who are vying to become the next prime minister of the u.k. christian: on our panel tonight, the bbc's political editor for the southeast, and bbc lancashire's political reporter. christian: tonight, the first televised debate of the campaign was a laborer in a commanding position in the polls. can rishi sunak find some momentum, or will sir keir starmer secure his position as the odds on favorite to become the next prime minister? the new leader of reform u.k., nigel faraj, has call for -- nigel farage, has called for zero net migration. we'll look at it to tonight's debate and the impact of nigel

farage's formal declaration. he is running as a candidate. very warm welcome to the program. so we are just a short time away from the first set peace moment the campaign, sir keir starmer and rishi sunak arriving for just a short time ago. you could argue whether these tv debates matter anymore, but i assure you that leaders know the importance of it. but sides are setting aside time for prep,, sessions, thrashing out the various lines of attack and defense. one senior labour figures it at that sir keir is heading back to his old job, the country's chief prosecutor who would put 14 years of tory rule in the dock. but the labor leader might face cross-examination himself as his own plans come under more scrutiny. he knows he needs a clean bout tonight, nothing to unsettle the

polls. the prime minister is hoping he can roll back the years to 2010, the last time these debates shifted the dial. >> you're going to be told tonight by these two that the only choice you can make is between numeral to all parties who have been running things for years -- two old parties who have been running things for years. i'm here to persuade you there is an alternative. >> i agree with. i agree with nick. agree with nick. [applause] christian: i agree with nick. with us is vicki young in salford. the anticipation no doubt mounting. what does the prime minister have to do tonight? >> i think it is worth looking at the different place that both of these leaders are coming from. if you look at rishi sunak, firstly and obviously he has a record to defend, and it is a

pretty patchy one, also because it is not just his record, it is boris johnson's, it is liz truss's, there has been a pandemic, a living crisis. there's an awful lot he has to defend, and makes it much more difficult for him. and if you start promising, as he has done, about things in the future, lots of people watching will say why didn't you do this before. on top of that the opinion polls suggest he is a very long way behind. conservative spinners have already started spinning even though the debate hasn't actually started. they say that the polls are not the same as what they are hearing on the doorstep. they say people are a lot more undecided, haven't made up their mind about sir keir starmer. but there is no doubt that rishi sunak cannot be content with a draw tonight. he needs to shift the dial, because all the policy announcements he has made have not changed the polls. it seems people are not

listening or liking the messages but across. he wants to give conservatives something to cheer about. christian: the labor leader has been handed a poll that will suggest he will win more seats than labor did in the landslide victory in 1997. does it feel when you are out on the campaign like 1997? vicky: well, it's interesting, actually, because of lots of even labour mp's say it doesn't really. who knows what will happen? this certainly is a very powerful feeling of a need for change. i think that is what mps on both sides would say about all of this. you have a party that has been in power for a very long time. that does tend to be what happens, and that is what happened in 1997. i think there are labour people who are pretty worried, actually, in a very strange way about those polls. they are worried about complacency and people knocking on doors and saying "i'm a bit undecided but you don't need me

because you are going to win by so much." there is a job for sir keir starmer to do here. people say it is easy to forensically analyze and complain about angst that the other party has been doing -- about things that the other party has been doing for years, but he has to inspire people to come out and vote labor. is he going to manage to do that? there being very cautious, labor, not overpromising, knowing that the economic situation means there's is not much money to throw around, so they are trying not to things they cannot fund. but there is a danger that the campaign is a bit too flat? maybe it doesn't matter, they are 20 points ahead in the polls. the other thing about sir keir starmer, yes, he has been a politician for a while. voters don't really get to know a leader until they have been through a general election contest. for lots of people tuning in the next few weeks as well, they won't to know an awful lot about him. the question is whether he shows that tonight and gives more of a sense of himself.

christian: the spin room behind you is filling out. we have got to let you go and settle in. let's bring in our panel. maybe you could pick up the point that vicky was making there. five of labor's top target seats in your patch in the northwest there. when you speak to people on the doorstep, do they feel as if they know sir keir starmer? as they made a decision on the labour leader? >> i think people here in the rthwest -- a lot of people stereotype prime min. su starme- stereotype sir keir starmer as being dull and boring, but a lot of people have come to realize that is not necessarily a bad thing. if you look at it from the other angle, if you look at people's opinion of rishi sunak in the past 13, 14 years of the conservative government, people have started to lose trust in

the northwest. a lot of people in parts of lancashire were for a long time traditional labour seats, places you know very well like burnley, didn't have a conservative mp for over 100 years, in 2019 people in burnley back to boris johnson in large part due to things like his personality, because they felt like he was a character, they felt like they understood him more. now i think an awful lot of people are saying, you know what, we have had an awful lot of turbulence, particularly the past few years. maybe somebody like keir starmer, i don't know him that well, he is not that relatable, he is a london mp, has held senior jobs in his life, i don't have that much in common with them, but maybe boring isn't a bad thing for me. christian: you have been out in rochester in the southeast.

what do people want to hear tonight from this debate, those people you have spoken to? >> it's really interesting to chat to people around and about the southeast because the southeast has long been tory territory, known as true blue. after the 2019 election, the 59 seats, 51 of them were conservative. but when you speak to people, that isn't necessarily the view get these days. i was chatting to people in rochester and there are some big issues people are worried about, things like the nhs, public services. one person i spoke to proactively said to me "we want to pay more taxes to improve our public services." of course those are not scientific and they don't give a true representation of views across the region, but it gives a sense of people -- there is real nuance across our region at the moment. christian: the news ahead of the

debate was all about nigel farage and his first appearance in clacton not far from where charlotte is. reform u.k. has lit a torch under this campaign, promising a revolt that has been much sent conservatives in full-blown panic mode. gloomy front pages for rishi sunak were fueled by that announcement. two major polls predict a historic drubbing for the tories. we don't tend to focus on single polls, but a new poll vicky was referring to critics 194-seat labor majority. perhaps no coincidence, then, faced with the farage onslaught, the conservatives were out with a new pledge, a cap on the number of visas issued each year to migrant workers. >> what we have seen with labor, who have voted 139 times against any and every border-control measure we have put forward, complete open-door policy, that

does not work. it does not work for local communities, does not work for local authorities when they are trying to plan public services. we are the only party with a creditable plan to professionally manage migration so that it supports the british economy without putting undue pressure on local communities. christian: net migration, that is the difference in the number of people immigrating to the u.k. and those emigrating. it increase last year, but it remains higher -- he decreased last year, but it remains higher than at the start of this parliament. a fall of approximately 10% from the ons update, the updated estimate of 764,000 from the year to december 2022. you will probably hear rishi sunak refer to that tonight. that said, net migration is nearly four times higher than it was in 2019, when the conservative party said it would bring overall numbers down in its manifesto. nigel farage says conservatives

have betrayed the trust of the british people. >> we were told we would get control of our borders, we were told immigration numbers would come down. they have exploded. i feel betrayed by them. millions of voters feel betrayed by them. even though there were some people in the conservative party who i fought with during brexit and other battles, i feel that part of the party who are well past their sell-by date, the brand is ruined, they lost the election already. what i'm trying to do is establish a voice of opposition to what is going to be a labour government that otherwise might be out of control. christian: charlotte, some people would say one thing that has happened in british politics in a generation is brexit, and the one man that has done more than anyone else to bring that about was nigel farage. like it or not, when he speaks to the country, the electorate does move, and we saw that today with the crowds that came out in clacton. charlotte: big crowds in clacton, yes.

he was in our region last week as well in dover, launching reform u.k.'s policy on immigration, and it was interesting to see him interviewed here. when we were standing on a balcony just outside the hotel he was launching the policy and, we did this interview and it was interesting to see the attention he was attracting. people were driving past, cycling pt, walking past, and stopping. there was a real mixed reaction. some people were shouting words of encouragement and saying they were very pportive of him. but there was a swearword that i won't repeat on air that i heard from a man cycling past. he is continuing to attract attention and divide opinion right across the country. christian: mike, one of these go-to soundbites on migration is that there are streets around the country where people don't speak english. there are some pockets of our country where there is not enough assimilation. is he right?

mike: i think it's an old stereotype. look, in the northwest and lancashire, we are no strangers to migration. it is not a new thing. i think particularly around the brexit campaign, it was quite high on people's agenda when you talked about what issues matter to them. at the minute it doesn't seem to be that high. there is an awful lot of community cohesion around the northwest. there is the art issue, but talking -- there is the odd issue, but talking about no-go zones, things like that, it is not something that you see. people are worried about a public services at the minute. they are worried about the pressure that things like migration do and could potentially put on public services. but also it is kind of -- it is wider than that. people are worried about the amount of funding that is coming

from central government into local authorities, into local services. when you talk to people about what issues matter to them in the northwest, migration does come up, but top of the list is the nhs and cost-of-living. they are the things that really matter. there is pockets of the northwest warehousing is a bigger issue. migration is quite far down the list. christian: just on that point, when people talk about public services, do they recognize out there that migrati, legal migration does contribute towards our nurses, our care workers, traits that are intrinsic to our economy? both parties even today, while migration is the central theme, would admit we do need to migration. --do need some migration. mike: definitely, and one of the things that highlighted that to people here was the pandemic.

people realize that front-line workers in places like the nhs were also -- frontline workers come from lots of different backgrounds, and without people from different parts of the world coming here to the northwest, a lot of those services wouldn't be able to function. there is the flipside to the argument, ople do worry that an increase in migration would put more pressure on public services that are already struggling. but people really do realize that without migration, particularly in the health and social care sector, services as things are now wooden function.- w- wouldn't function. christian: charlotte, just a final thought. if you look at thi poll showing conservatives taking up something, the reason the likes of john curd look at it seriously is it demonstrates where there is very close competition for the conservative party, things are most

definitely moving against them. we saw it this year, we saw it st year. how many candidates do you think reform could feel the down there, and would make a big difference the political map southeast? charlotte: it's an interesting one, because i asked nigel farage that last week when he came to dover, and he wouldn't commit to saying where they could win or how many candidates they could field. i didn't get a clear answer from him on that. much of the southeast voted brexit at the time of the referendum, and there was strong support for a party that nigel farage was involved with before. so there has been support for the party before. there was one mp in the constituency i'm standing in our after one mp defected and won a by-election. nigel himself stood to be an mp

not far from here in 2015 but didn't get elected. it's difficult to say. there are other opposition parties who are hoping to make against enact -- make gains in our region. places like hastings and frawley, there are lib dems trying to make headway in what they call the blue walls of places like lewis and eastbourne in sussex. there are opposition parties who have got their eyes uncertain seats in the southeast. for these opposition parties like reform for labour, lib dems, green party, they have the brighton pavilion seat, they have that at the moment. there is a lot to gain for them and a lot to lose for the conservatives. christian: indeed so. charlotte and mike are going to stay with us. let me show you the list of candidates for clacton in the constituency there. not all of them, but the website will perhaps have a complete list once they are all confirmed. there you have the current

runners. around the world and across the u.k., you're watching bbc news.

christian: not everyone out in clacton was there to pa homage to nigel farage. you might have seen a clip we tease earlier. this was the moment, someone throwing a milkshake at the reform leader, which no doubt will entertain his opponents. but it is a worrying element of this campaign. there is a report out today that all election candidates will be offered basic security throughout the campaign, that is for the first time. the electoral commission says 43% of candidates have faced abuse, and some are seeking counseling due to their experience on the doorstep. this was the tweet this morning from the veterans minister johnny mercer, no stranger to hostile environments. >> morning, plymouth, it's

another fantastic day on the campaign trail. everyone is feeling really good. no, they're not, really. it's pretty hard going, these general elections, i'll be honest with you. it's raining, everyone is tired, and yesterday was a pretty [bleep] date. christian: it's really serious issue, this, because in any democracy people have to be able to run, ve to approach voters. the only people who get close to candidates day in and day out are the regional correspondence. are you seeing this abuse, and is it worse than it was in previous elections? mike: i think it's got steadily worse over the past 10 years i've been doing this job. i know and be's -- i know mp's who have previously stood down because of the kind of abuse they were getting. ofn it takes the form of online abuse, emails, tweets, but it can be in person as well. mp's have looked to move house

on a street and have remembered somebody on that street who has abused them in the past and not bought the house. i know of mp's, currently candidates, who say this will absolutely be the last time i standard -- these are fairly young people who could have another 20, 30 years in politics in them, because of this sort of abuse they get. it is an awful lot worse for women and for people from ethnic minority backgrounds. politicians edo need to be held -- politicians do need to be held to account, they absolutely understand that. but there was a really fine line between what is robust argument and what is abuse, and a lot of the stuff that politicians at all levels show me now -- particularly this is creeping into local government as well, fairly low counselors who don't really get paid, they get an allowance of 3000 pounds a year or something like that, who are getting all sorts of horrific emails, tweets, things said to them on the doorstep.

10 years ago it wasn't the same. it was a lot more civil than it is now. i think it has a lot to answer for why, for example, a lot more young people, a lot more women, a lot more people from ethnic minority backgrounds choose not to get involved in politics and opt for other career options. christian: just going, says johnny -- tough going, says johnny mercer, charlotte. i don't know if he is referring to the level of support or the level of abuse, but there is a report of a revolt among conservative circles among conservative mps who feel the prime minister went to really. one on -- went to early. one unnamed source says they feel they have been fed to the wolves. are you picking that up when you go with conservative mp's? charlotte: i think there is some frustration, yeah. a lot of the mp's i've been speaking to in the run-up to the electionadn't expected this

election to come now. i think they were expecting it in october, november time. those mp's, particularly in seats who may be marginal, who are having to fight to hold onto those seats, i think there is a real kind of sense of frustration there, actually. on that point about abuse, it is really interesting because it is something i've noticed in the region as well, speaking to mp's over the years. they have really felt they faced abuse -- it is probably got worse with social media, but also in person as well, and a lot of them have been putting up security measures at their offices and not revealing in advance where they are going, when they are going to do visits, constituency matters. so it's a sort of wonder that the people are still keen to stand as candidates in the election. but yes, on your point about conservative mp's, there certainly has been some

frustration among the candidates i've been picking up. christian: it's true. a milkshake is one thing, shouting is another, but we don't want another jo cox or david amos. a lot of people in these constituencies know whether local candidates live, so it is becoming a serious issue we should tackle head-on. i should say before we go to break that after that head-to-head debate tonight, there will be another one on itv involving the leaders of the liberal democrats, s&p,-- snp, and the greens. the lib leader says he is going there to set out his campaign, not to provide commentary on the main debate. he wants to talk about his own policies. lib dems unveiling a new policy on free personal care. plenty of analysis no doubt on that on stage later on tonight on itv. and of course plenty more on the bbc website if you want to look at some of these policies that are now being put out. just enough time to thank mike

and charlotte for their contributions. lovely to have your company. thank you for your time. we will go to break and on the other side we will head over to announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. cunard is a proud supporter of public television. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: get the free pbs app now and stream the best of pbs.

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