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announcer: and now, "bbc news" ♪ ben: hello, you are watching the context. >> we can do better than the botched deal that we got under boris johnson. if there are businesses that we are watching are set are watching i hear what you see about the barriers to trade and we will do something about that. >> labor has deliberately failed to rule out 18 potential tax raises during this election campaign. in relation to each of these tax raises, labour's manifesto makes no commitment not to raise them. it is clear that the country has crying out for change but if the liberal democrats offer the change to tackle the cost of losing crisis and put an end to sewage jumping.

ben: coming up, our panel. ♪ we begin tonight with the u.k. election as campaigning reaches the halfway mark. we have heard from the labour leader who has been speaking to nick robinson and saide is prepared to make enemies over issues such as planning in order to pursue economic growth. the prime minister rishi sunak has warned conservatives previously voting for reform u.k. that they risk handing labour a blank check in response to ape an opinion poll showing that nigel faraj's reform party has support of four -- above the conservatives for the first time. other surveys have the tories

second. as the euros get underway we will ask whether international football has the power to move voters and win election. a good showing by the home nations to deliver a boost to government. now, during the election period, nick robinson has conducted a series of interviews with party leaders. on monday he spoke with receipt -- rishi sunak and in the past half hour we broadcast his interview with circular starmer -- sir kier starmer. he rejected conservative suggestions that labour would have to cut spending, raise taxes or increase borrowing and insist that he will boost economic growth. he says a reform of the planning system is one way of growing the economy. >> are you prepared to make enemies to make the economy grow? >> yes. we will have to be tough and

change the way things are done. if you want a short example but it makes my point. i spoke to the ceo of an energy company saying how long would it put you to put a wind turbine farm up and i said i would do it in two years and i would lose five years to planning and another six or seven years before the grid was connected. we cannot go on like that. ben: let us take you to westminster. and to helen. did we learn anything new? helen: we did not learn anything completely new. and in many ways that was probably his aim because this has been a disciplined campaign in which they have risk -- repeated the same messages. we saw that the manifesto that there were not any surprises or rabbits out of the hat. it was about repeating those consistent pledges and promises that labour has been presenting.

we had a reiteration of his strategy. he was challenged after the clip that you just played about brexit and what he be happy to make enemies of leave voters by saying that the u.k. needed to get closer to the e.u. again. he stressed that labour would not take the u.k. back into the european union. the single markets or the customs union. he did concede that there were barriers to trade and he was listening and he had heard what business was saying and he would do something about that. and he thinks there could be a better deal. he also said he did not believe that the relationship with the e.u. was the silver bullet to fix all of those problems. ben: one of the common criticisms we have heard is about whether labour is prepared to be honest with voters about the scale of the challenge that they might inherit if they end

up in 10. and he says prepared to make enemies over things like brexit. a big question, is he prepared to make difficult decisions and unpopular decisions if he gets the keys to number 10? helen: that is the big question and that was what nick robinson was trying to get to. but we are getting is the message that big pitch is that it is time for change by reassuring people that they will be responsible with the finances and they will not see the political turmoil that we have seen. they have been using this slogan of stability is change. so, that is where they have been going. the interview covered quite a bit of ground and looked at some of the things, and another key message that he has been trying

to put across is that the labour party that he is putting is not the same that went to the country in 2019. he has been working very hard to put real distance between that. and he was challenged by nick robinson during the interview out some of the things he would said he would do when he was running to become leader back in 2019 and what he is pledging because while some things are the same like devolving powers. there is a shift away from the promises on things like re nationalizing energy companies. you're not seeing that and it is quite different in this manifesto. his answer was that it is because he has seen what happened and they have had four successive election defeats that he believed that the party had moved away from the country and this was him dragging it back. that is his answer to those challenges. ben: good to get your analysis, thank you.

let us talk to the panel, melissa, jane and anup. i want to start with you, because clear's -- because sir. keir is making it clear that he does not want to raise taxes and he does not want to cut spending and the solution is to get the whole economy to grow. that will take some time, won't it? melissa: it will. and nick mentioned about how much extra he will put into the nhs and he illustrated it with the pound coins or pennies and that was essentially what he was offering. the equivalent to one penny. i do not know how much more he can do. obviously he is inheriting a lot of troubles from the tory party. there is only so much he can do. on one hand, there is an element of what he is staying there saying and the element of truth

that he can only do so much. he cannot get out a magic wand and change everything. it will take a long time. perhaps it will not even been done -- be done in the time he has as new prime minister. ben: that is the challenge that might lie ahead of him should he get that top job. whether he has prepared to be honest with the british public. about the difficult decisions that might need to be made. he is saying he is prepared to make enemies over issues like planning but is he prepared to make enemies of the electorate when he says we do not want to do that and we will cut spending and that is the way we think we can solve the problem. jane: i think that is an interesting point. melissa talks about honesty as well. i think they tried to be honest and voters want honesty. they have had a fiscally prove it -- proven many of --

manifesto and there is a high possibility that they will have some spending cuts in unprotected departments so not the nhs or schools but the courts and local government that have already faced a real squeeze. here starmer says he will not return to -- sir. keir says they will not return to austerity but there will be some different -- difficult decisions. they are 20 points ahead of the polls and have not slept but they do need to be a little bit more honest about how hard it will be. he is putting everything on growth and you cannot wave the magic bond and have growth in the middle of july. it will take a long time. maybe the voters need to know a little bit more of how long this project will take. ben: yes. i suppose that is thessue that in our precision you can have all of the ideas and say the

party is doing everything wrong. but then you have to put your policies on the line and they have to stand up to scrutiny. some of the suggestion having seen that 24 hours on from the neighbor manifesto is that some of them are raw plans. but what have caused so many problems like training teachers, spend some money training teachers but how many stay in the profession. we want to open more prisons and build them but it takes time or there are planning issues. we know that all of these big ideas gets bogged down in the weeds and that is a difficult bit that we do not have detail on, do we? ann: when i spoke to the shadow treasury team on exactly how and what the timeline is, they tend to say there are two levers. one is boosting investment which they claim that they could start to see effects straightaway. and that is from talking to companies and engagement businesses. the other is doing things like relaxing the planning laws which

even on an optimistic timescale will take two or three years. that is their scenario. a lot of economists will look at the u.k. as flatlining growth in the last few years and say they actually know what has caused it. there has been quite a big debate in economic circles about why growth has flatlined quite so much since the crash, since 2008. and so this idea that there is a magic wand to wave, it is something not only a u.k. problem but a global problem. we have had growth in the western world, so you know, a lot of people look at that and say that all sounds great and is low on detail and high on optimism. ben: we will talk more about that around those tax issues and i want to run through what the conservatives have been saying because they accused labour of launching a tax trap manifesto.

they say that they are planning to put up the capital gains tax on the primary residence. here is a little about what she said earlier. >> labour have deliberately failed to rule out 18 potential tax raises during this election campaign. in relation to each of these tax raises, labour's manifesto deliberately makes no commitment not to raise them. if he wins, it is obvious that what keir starmer wants to do is cynically claimed that the books he inherited are much worse than he thought. as justification for imposing tax raises that he has not told you about. ben: that is laura traut speaking. jane, once again, we have been discussing that the conservatives are keen to talk about tax and point the finger of blame at labour rather than talking about their own policies. but they have a point when it comes to some of the detail.

we know what labour will not do, they will not raise personal taxes so income tax or vat. they have been a little vague about where the tax burden might fall. that status and oil and gas. there are still glaring emissions -- omissions. melissa: that -- jane: that is up to the secrecy secrecy or reluctance. the tories need a miracle at this point. they threw the kitchen sink with $17 billion of -- 17 billion pounds of tax cuts and they are trying to make this an election campaign about the hidden labour tax bombshell. it is very alike the 1992 campaign. but the tories very effectively took the labour's cost and said there is a huge tax bombshell

that ordinary people will have to pay for. the tories have been trying to do this. with three weeks ago obviously the circumstances are different to 1992. john mae did not help nigel faraj on his case. lots of things are different, but they still think that they can get labour on tax and i think that labour hamade a mistake that they have been so cautious with their language because they want to be careful but the way that keir starmer has been talking about you're not going to raise taxes on working people is such a strange phase -- phrase that was picked up that they will not raise income tax or vat which has opened the door to capital gains tax. penny seized on this and she said it sounded vague which allowed the conservatives to come up. it is slightly bizarre to say that there are 18 unknown tax raises. what is unknown? nevertheless it is a bit of a

slip and if the polls were tighter there would be a tight -- a slight panic in the campaign right now. ben: i suppose that is the key question. the conservatives can throw these criticisms about tax planning and what might be coming down the line. labour feel that they need to be honest about the economic situation that they are inheriting. and it comes once again to difficult decisions. do you think voters are getting wise to this and saying the financial situation is not great. and actually they need to become honest about what they would do and where the money will come from? melissa: i tnk it is a politics game at the end because labour does not want to mess up at this stage. they are inheriting a bad economic situation and they do need to explain to the public and to be fair, keir starmer has said we will need to make tax decisions about what is coming down the pipe.

by the same time, i think that the state of politics is that i do not even know if the public truly believe that politicians can fix anything. it is a fact of lettuce get out of this horrible situation by any means necessary and if keir starmer is not promising the world we will take it. i think that is the state we are in politically speaking. ben: one of the other things in the manifesto was like pro-british energy and the idea on reducing our reliance on foreign imports and be more energy secure. the liberal democrats talking about food security. ultimately it will come down to the cost-of-living crisis. energy and food are quite a part of it. whoever takes the keys to number 10 will have other issues they have to deal with. anna: mortgages are a huge issue. here starmer -- keir starmer is putting a lot of stress on trying to tell people i will not hit you in your pocket.

but it is his failure to rule out these other tax questions that again, once again in the nick robinson interview tonight. and obviously labour to that will say we cannot write a budget on the spot. but then, why did they rule out ni, vat and income tax. they are ruling out some but not the others which raises questions. when we go back to the question of the promise of growth if you are not growing the plot there are three options. one is borrow more and they have been very strict on saying mabel not do that and stick to the conservative rules. the second is cutting public spending and public services are on their knees. there is very little that you can cut. the third is of course, tax. and i thought the revealing thing was when keir starmer was asked in the sky debate about

his private schools policy and raising money on private schools and said i am a working person and this will hit me. you said you will not tax working people but in this way you will tax me and he said well that is not a tax rise, that is taking away tax breaks. one option is taking away other tax breaks which could raise revenue. and i think that is where people will look at is coming down the line and say what is going to happen? but of course the conservatives are on tricky ground because they have presided over the highest tax burden in 70 years. ben: i also want to look at the polling, interesting polling that puts nigel faraj ahead of the conservatives. it is just one but we will examine that in the second. around the world and across the u.k., bbc news. ♪

ben: you are with the context on bbc news. let us talk about the polls and how much weight can be given to one poll that suggests that the reform party is ahead of the conservatives. nigel faraj held an emergency press conference to celebrate that what does it really tell us about voting intenons? we have been looking at the data. roz: let us look at the trends. this is the poll tracker. using a range it shows the average support for each party through the campaign. labour has -- a substantial lead but both the conservatives and labour are slightly down. smaller parties are moving up. the liberal democrats and also perform u.k. although i should emphasize it is eight points behind the tories on the bbc poll tracker. what about that pole that puts reform u.k. ahead of the tories? >> at the moment, at least none

of the other polls show perform ahead of the conservatives but some shothem not behind. not every poll has identified any reform support at all. we need to be careful about focusing on one. >> through the campaign you are sending us questions to your voice, your vote and richard asked "as the polls stand how does that rete to the number of seats won by each party?" smaller parties rarely have the number of mp's that matches their percentage of the national vote. so reform's position is unlikely to translate to an equivalent number of seats. some bigger polls called mrp polls projectile each constituency will vote. more recent ones give labour a majority over 100 and some higher still. although with all polls, these projections should be treated

ben: treated with caution indeed. jane, i am interested. nigel faraj calling himself the real leader of the opposition but that is just one poll. he thinks the party will gain more than 6 million votes. is this just a bit of theater or does he have a point? jane: a bit of both. he has very good at political theater. nevertheless, i think when he reentered frontline politics, a week last monday he said that there was something out there. and actually i think he is right. i am going to swindon more -- swindon north, a very marginal seat that labour has to win. you would think that if the polls are right so far that labour is on closed -- course for a huge landslide and that lots of voters wl be going for keir starmer. it is the classic journalist fox pot.

i spent four or five hours pete talking to people going about their daily business and lots of people were undecided. people were really fed up with the conservatives but they were not talking about labour but reform. and i think obviously, that is something else that faraj would have picked up. he would've gone to these sorts of seats. and there is an enthusiasm for reform. this is what faraj has latched onto. he is good at capturing that mood and he is writing this. it is also worth pointing out that this is my seventh election and it is one of the most stage-managed ones i have covered. both main parties are keeping things tight and i do not think they met any real voters. meeting real people but they turn out to be party activists. the three most significant points of this campaign have not been stage-managed. the first one was nigel faraj entering the contest and the

third one was the poll last night which is also about faraj. it is interesting about the way that this campaign that both parties are trying to ignore that he exists as penny mordant was doing last night that they cannot ignore him. he is not going to go away. ben: he says he does not want to be ignored. he says he needs to take part in that question time lead, which involves the leaders of the four biggest political parties at the moment involving the conservatives, the liberal democrats and the smp. he says he needs to be part of that debate. when the polls start changing and label -- labour and the conservatives say this is within the margin of error. does he deserve a place at that debate? given that this is just one poll? melissa: i do not think he deserves a place in any debate because he is trying to

rmalize far right views and we see what the consequence of far right views is a devastating one and it would be devastating for this country. he has spoken about muslims in a very derogatory way. he has spoken about black people and women. no one is safe from him. so to give him the opportunity to spout hate an division would just be a terrible idea for the country. and he is a yoke or politician. he does not have the credentials when you look at him. sorry. ben: no. you are fine. i was just interrupting. we will come back and we are running out of time. weill speak to you more in a second because we are keeping a close eye on what is happening. look away if you do not want to know the score. germany 2-0 ahead in the opening match of the euros. this is the scene in berlin. of course taking on scotland in the opening game of euro 2024. we will talk tomorrow about that

shortly. announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. cunard is a proud supporter of public television. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: get the free pbs app now and stream the best of pbs.

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