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announcer: and now, "bbc news" ♪ >> hello, i'm christian fraser and this is "the context." >> the last couple of years have been tough. tough for all of you, for everyone, but we have now turned the corner thanks to everyone's sacrifices. the future is there for us. >> it's a strict choice. more of the chaos, division, and failure we have had over the last 14 years, because it's not going to change, or turn the page and start to rebuild our country with labor. >> all of these criticisms that i made of richey during his chancellorship i think were pretty much evidenced in the d-day situation, where a colete lack of judgment.

♪ christian: a big bw for the prime minister. former tory donor john caldwell told the bbc that he will vote labor for the first time in his life next month. the announcement follows a new projection that labor is heading for a landslide vtory with dozens of tory held seats on a knife edge. from tonight, edinboro, rob watson, and plymouth, our southwest political editor, martin oates. vladimir putin just arrived in north korea for a two day summit with kim jong-un. and we are watching events at the white house, joe biden about to sign an executive order order that will grant amnesty to tens of thousands of illegal immigrants married to u.s. citizens. a very warm welcome to the program. the british billionaire

entrepreneur and businessman, john caldwell, who gave the conservatives half a million pounds before the last general election told the bbc that he will vote labor for the first time in his life next month. the founder of the fund for you business invited our political editor to his house this afternoon and told us that rishi sunak was a dud and that he's looking to hit all the right notes. >> i have no idea how many bulbs there are in those chandeliers either. mayfair and the labour party are not often words that appear in the same sentence, but they want to show off their new supporter and invited me to interview him. the last election, you gave half of a million pounds to the conservatives. now you are saying to back labor. why? >> the reason of course for backing the conservatives was that they couldn't possibly stand up in government.

i feel exactly the same, but what i have lit nest in the last couple of years is a complete change getting rid of what i call the loony left, where extreme socialist policies were there rather than creating a wealthy britain. >> tell me about the courtship between the billionaire and the socialist, you and karis,. >> i don't know if i would call it that. my thoughts on labor historically are very negative. from what i'm seeing now, the more and more i have looked at labor, it's a transformation. >> is this the first time you will have voted labor? >> first time in 51 years, yes, and honestly it took a lot of me soul-searching. and it wasn't really because it was the conservative party. it's the conservative principles i believe in. >> in your view, what has gone wrong for the conservatives? is rishi sunak a dud? >> absolute dud.

for all of the criticisms i made of him during his chancellorship, i think they were pretty much evidenced in the d-day situation, where a completeack of judgment. >> are you going to join the labour party? will you consider giving money to them? the way you have to the conservatives? >> the labour party, in my estimation, much as i disagree with some other policies, are the best for britain going forward. it's possible i might support them next time around if i think they are doing an amazing job. >> nice to talk to you. chris mason, bbc, mayfair. christian: rob watson was watching that. john caldwell, straying away from the conservative party some time ago, but clearly with a big business leader like that saying that a tory is a dud, although chris led him into that a bit, it doesn't help, does it?

rob: it certainly doesn't. on the one hand, does one very rich person among 45 million voters make a difference? probably not. but on the other hand, if you think about what the message of the labour party is, what he's been constantly trying to say, which is that we are not a classic centerleft party won't be immediate reaching for taxation and spending, we are about labor and growth, it doesn't do you harm against someone fabulously wealthy coming on your side. i guess the other thing, of course, looking back for the governing conservatives is that when you have had a whole string of bad news mishaps, to have yet another person deserting you even if it's just one person doing so publicly, when our colleague -- with our colleague chris, it's not good for the vibes, is it? christian: no. in terms of money, we don't talk about money with elections, u.k.

elections at least. we tend to refer to it a lot in american elections at least. but a donor of that scale walking away from the party, what does that do to what you do from the campaign? >> we've all been brought up very well, not discussing money in politics in britain. my goodness, are we americans? we have discussed that in the past. it doesn't help. there have been reports of the conservative party not near as flush as it used to be and it's been outspent by the opposition labour party, which is amazingly unusual in british electio. does it make a difference? i guess it must do, otherwise why on earth with a be spending this money? it's one more thing for rishi sunak in the conservative headquarters to be worrying about. christian: and it's something that the lib dems we are talking about ardt -- about, martin, as is ever the case in the southwest you have a number of

seats contested by the conservatives and the lib dems, they say that we could just squeeze a bit more out of the donors, we could go for some of these target seats. martin: yes of course and they have very limited resources compared to the conservatives and labor. you are absolutely right, historically those are the big rivals i mean, going into this election, it looked as if we might be, peripheral view, we've only gotten the 25 seats here. the real focus of the battle is in the midlands and the north. if you rewind back to the 2010, 2015 election when things were very close, clearly the conservatives failed to obtain a majority, just managed to get in 2015, in those elections the national result it is fair to say largely hit on these few seats here. the 2015 elections come on, the coalition collapses completely.

one of the big questions in this part of the world is can they finally regain those seats. now, rishi sunak down here for the second time today, you get the impression that he's revisiting those seats previously held by the liberal democrats and is concerned about that ended need concerned, as he said leading up the election, that quite late in the day resources have been switched to seats here in the southwest, which frankly, you know, two or three years ago would have been viewed as safe tory seats. christian: where the statement from john caldwell not bad enough, the guardian is leading coverage with a new projection suggesting that labor is heading for a landslide victory in two weeks, saying that more than 100 conservative held ats are on a knife edge, with the result in the hands of millions of undecided swing voters. that gives scottish labor real cause for optimism today after a

pitiful showing in 2019 where they are now expanding their target to 36 seats north of the border. they are unveiling their scottish manifesto. in london, there was mixed messaging on whether he would reopen the council tax bands. labor said that none of his plans require a tax rise. damian grammaticas was watching. >> it's the last day you can register to vote. it may not be the voters, but rishi sunak has been taking his campaign far and wide. subjecting labor to scrutiny. >> the choice is crystal clear, tax cuts in every stage of your life.

are you in work, setting up a small business, self-employed, young couple wanting to buy a home, pensioner with the family? conservatives deliver tax cuts and in contrast, labor puts up your taxes and doesn't create financial security. >> labor leader, keen to slay dragons, was also in the south of england. the investor whose personality highlights labor plans to set up banking hubs in towns to get people and companies access to banking services. >> it is a part of the challenge for small businesses, whether it is hospitality or retail that we are talking about. that's why today we are unveiling a man for supporting small businesses in order to make sure that more people are getting it on the high street. it's a manifesto for wealth creation, growth, making sure

that people feel genuinely better off of labor. >> in the south of england, more genteel stuff, dishing out croissants, pushing one of the favorite themes of liberal democrats, water quality andhe plan to spend 10 million pounds on new inspectors to toughen up enforcement. campaigning in hampshire is another sign that battlegrounds are deep blue conservative territory. >> surrey, sussex, him furniture, oxfordshire, the only party that can beat the conservatives. i've been in the west country in devon and cornwall. they are seeing our revival of the liberal demoatic support as people who traditionally voted conservatives said they can't do anymore. and they won't do labor, it will be liberal democrat >> >>.

two weeks until the day, the parties are fine-tuning their campaigns, pushing for your votes in the coming days. if that is you register in time. bbc ws, westminster. christian: just looking at this iipsos mrp model, it suggests labor would win 400 33, conservatives 115, majority 256. do you get the sense, martin, given that you just told us that rishi sunak has been another twice in short order, that the campaign is shifting for the conservatives and that they are now in a defensive crouch? >> i think that's right, undoubdly. there's a sense even in the months leading up to the election that they might need to be worried about these seats.

it had looked as if this was existential for the liberal democrats and since then, they have appealed to the free bag. on the other hand in the last two years to three years they have made consistent gains in local elections in the region. in the district councils across devon, dorset, where they took for the first time ever this year -- i mean, dorset was always on their wish list, but they never managed to crack it and now they have the authority in somerset. you know, always difficult to extrapolate from local elections what will happen, but having said that historically, their pattern of success is building up strength in local government, as those election results would point to success. but the question remains as to whether they can crack it at a parliamentary level. in terms of representation it's

about whether they did take that safe tory seat, the neil parish seat, remember he resigned after the tractor incident, that seat had never been anything but tory , disappearing under the boundary changes. is that again pointing towards a big revival? christian: i just wonder if this poll is an entire disaster for the conservatives. obviously somewhat terrifying, but they have been on the airwaves in the last two days warning about a labor super majority. the report says that all of the seats are dependent on undecided swing voters. presumably, they will get a hold of that and say to their own supporters that this is why you need to come out. rob: hard to find a silver lining in a poll like this, but i suppose you are having an attempt. [laughter]

christian: greetings to martin, and if it doesn't violate impartiality, i adore all of those encounters in the united kingdom. [laughter] martin: gunning for your job. rob: be careful, martin. christian: i suppose if you are really doing the special on being a political advisor on the bright side, might this terrifies some of your voters from coming out and supporting you? maybe. to quote john curtis, the poster from strathclyde in scotland, he a fascinating and based on the polling saying that it was pretty obvious that the conservatives were going to get a kicking. the question was, just how big. there was quite a variety and it depends, as you said, the peoe voting conservative 2019 who now do not know what to do.

do they go to labor, is that bad for the conservatives, or do some of them go back and then it's not quite so bad? rob: a quick one on this new manifesto, from the seats they currently hold, that's an extraordinary uplift. looking at the manifesto, is it easy in this election, or is he looking forward to the hollywood election? christian: both, you knew i was going to say that. it's about the messages. we need to get rid of the conservatives in westminster and then once we finish them off, we take them on in scotland. two years for the scottish parliamentary election. absolutely, it's both. christian: let me show you some my pictures as we go to the break. joe biden has taken to the stage. he's alongside the first lady, addressing people in the white

house, about to sign an order that will grant amnesty to illegal immigrants married to u.s. citizens and who have been in the country for 10 years balancing out, of course, the order that closed the southern border. we will talk about that 20 more in the second hour of the program tonight. we will keep watching that and talk about it more in about 30 minutes time. you are watching bbc news. ♪

christian: as martin said, it felt like the farm versus the high street today, rachel reeves , chancellor, focused very much on the high street, setting up lands to open 350 banking hubs that would allow several banks to share the same space, helping to fill the gaps left around the country with ranch closers. then she was pulling a pint in a

pub in response to the campaign run by the pubs that were threatened with closure. looks like she will freeze beer ties. more than that, she's givingbuy the the villages the right to buy the pubs. this caught my eye, martin, particularly around devon, dorset, where the pub is the center of the community. martin: it is. at hospitality and tourism is one of the biggest, people coming in on holiday, it's a bit of an annoyance that the picture postcard village coastline masks the reality of life in somewhere , you know, cornwall, devon, among the poorest parts of the country that have come back to hospitality -- pubs, restaurants, hotels. ere is a sense that they had a

rough time over the past few years now that covid has played a big art in that. also, brexit. one of the big concerns is being able to access the labor that they see -- say they need domestically. there was a horrified reaction earlier this year when the government increased the salary threshold for immigrants. one of them to gain visas. they would very much le to see a cut on hospitality. that was brought in briefly during covid. the present government is resolutely resisting those calls for that to return and as far as i can see, there is no offer on that from other parties. yeah, it's an important sector and feels, not the only sector that feels beleaguered. rishi sunak speaking to farmers today, feeling they've had a rough time since brexit.

christian: it's one thing to give the option to buy, but there are 80's that have called out because of energy costs, spirit taxes, the costs of putting food on the table. there's a whole range of issues that go into hospitality other than the option to buy. rob: absolutely. i was thinking about this and i think i'm allowed to say this on-air, when i first joined bbc 40 years ago, i went in every day, lunchtime and evenings. [laughter] the good old days. the news was always, i can tell you, spot on. [laughter] christian: you were so much more flui yeah. aughter] rob: i think it's properly, not just my own lifestyle, which has been changing, but clearly there is something about the way in which we live and the costs of going out. on your point, i do know that in my area, much as i love devon,

oxford shire is my home place. some of these community run pubs have worked, some haven't. i don't know the ins and outs. i guess in the end it depends on having a solid bunch of people in the 1980's and 1990's, different rob watsons. christian: christian: the leveling up agenda, i recall, was all about breathing new life into towns that were losing the high street. i's a really important issue. i was listening to voters in rochdale today who said these voters pulled out the new market for the pubs are closing down. the policy of putting banks into town centers, are we laboring onto something here? do we need more creative ideas to bring back the sense of community and is that something that would redress this feeling that nothing is working? rob:

it's a cracking question. to be fair, you wouldn't find a political party in this country, here or anywhere, saying he would be a good idea to let the high street know to wrack and ruin. everyone knows that it will be a good idea to do something. if you look at where i live, the amount of effort asking about how to keep it, cut it, it's expensive, rent, transporting people, and it's really interesting that, complex countries like written with transport challenges, and old towns, right, places where the roads e narrow, this is not a simple thing to solve and if it had been simple, you know, it would have been solved along time ago. when i think about how different life is now can you do when i was young, everyone would go

into the central to do shopping for comestibles, as it were. you go shopping there, get some clothes, but life has changed. christian: indeed. in terms of why he was on the farm, we should talk about the policy that rishi sunak is defending, inheritance tax. warning this morning and the telegraph that labor scrap tax breaks that allow farmland to be passed down tax-free. is that a vote winner for the conservatives in these swinging seat they are trying toefend? if you look at an industry like farming, i would be fair in saying it's a core conservative constituency, they have been dismayed by the upheaval following from brexit. clearly, when we were in the eu, they were -- they had problems,

but on the other hand the subsidy system gave them big farms in other parts of the country. small farms appear in the southwest, often rely that. they are very uneasy and the national farmers union is telling whoever wins this election, they should be doubling the budget. a lot of disquiet that is still ongoing. those trade deals were struck with new zealand and ox really are. the fear there is thatheap foreign meet produced to lower standards was flooded, undercutting produce. ey will be looking at this across the piece. a lot of issues. christian: we are just out of time. arden, could -- it was wonderful

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