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tv   BBC News The Context  PBS  June 19, 2024 5:00pm-5:31pm PDT

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announcer: and now, "bbc news" . i'm cushion freezer and this is. -- christian frazier and this is the context. >> a standalone question. i believe that issue should be resolved. christian: goods price inflation is driven by falls in energy prices and that is what has led to the overall rate of inflation being on target, 2% finally. >> it is true that inflation went up because of global factors and global factors have also contributed to its fall but it's also true that very difficult decisions that i took are working alongside the bank of england, meant that it did not become an inflationary spiral. ♪
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christian: the s&p has set out its manifesto. page one, paragraph one, the pledge to continue the fight for independence but what else is in their plan to woo that support -- to woo back support? the per minister says we have turned a corner but does the government deserve the credit? vladamir putin has been welcomed to north korea for the first time in two decades with a huge ceremony in the center of pyongyang. the two leaders signed a breakthrough agreement so what does that mean for global security? good evening. the scottish national party has launched its election manifesto in edinburgh today, putting independents in the nhs at the forefront of their campaign. the first minister, john sweeney, said he would pressure a second independence referendum if his party won a majority of
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seats in scotland at this election. he claimed future independence would allow scotland to join the european union. amg other pledges, a commitment to end the two child benefit cap and to abolish the house of lords. here is our editor, james. >> john sweeney promised independence would be front and center of th manifesto and it is. >> the very heart of our beliefs is the principle that decisions about scotland should be made by the people who live in scotland. >> not independence for its own sake, independence of the power to protect our national health service and to help people through tough times. independence for a stronger economy and happier, healthier lives. once it is 10 years since scotland voted against independence and a referendum. mr. sweeney says so much has changed, it is time for another one. >> i think scotland should have a referendum to become
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independent. i think it is the democratic approach to do so and that is what scotland voted for in 2021. >> if they like the look of your government, should they vote >> for you? >>yes. -- >> should they vote for you? >> yes. what i have said to you is that this should be mandated mandate for the people of scotland. the question of independence is a standalone question. >> oil and climate change have played a big part in this campaign. energy workers want to know is the s&p in favor of new drilling or not? >> it's got to be undertaken in any application that comes forward from new orleans gas activity has got to meet the compatibility assessments we have in place. that is the way in which we will judge. >> they do meet quite a lot of
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them at the moment. >> what i am saying is there has to be a climate compatibility assessment in place which is consistent with our journey. and i'm giving you an answer to your question. individual licenses have got to pass that climate compatibility assessment. the past year or so has not been a smooth ride for the s&p. it has slumped amid changes of a police investigation into its finances. john sweeney hopes a renewed focus on independence will get it back on track. james click, bbc news, edinburgh. christian: the good news for richey soon act today was that inflation has reachedhe 2% target set out by the bank of england but if that was the good news, it was quickly superseded by news that a police constable serving in his close protection team has been arrested for placing bets over the timing of
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the general election. the metropolitan police said the officer was taken into custody on monday in connection with an allegation of misconduct in a public office. he has since been bailed pending further inquiries. we will get more on that very shortly. in 2018, donald trump went to singapore to meet the leader he dubbed the little rocket man. in the months preceding that visit, the rhetoric with north korea had been ramped up to such an extent that the american base in guam was being put on high alert but the summit in singapore brought about a rep #. -- rapprochement. there was almost a rreal atmosphere in which the american side projected this idea that north korea could one day become something akin to florida. >> what if a people that share a
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common and rich heritage can find a common future? their story is well known. but what will be there sql? destiny pictures presents a story of opportunity, a new stor a new beginning. one of peace. two men, two leaders, one destiny. >> fast forward six years and the parades in pyongyang look nothing like the parades in orlando. gone is donald trump, replaced by vladimir putin, who is visiting north korea for the first time in 24 years. the alliance that donald trump had promised has disappeared, replaced with a new access that threatens to split the world in two. vladimir putin has been given the full r carpet treatment, an open top parade, and a commitment from kim jong-un that
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his country will stand. behind the russian military fighting in ukraine. the two leaders have today signed a new security agreement which seems to amount to a mutual defense pact. whatever it is, it has the white house greatly concerned. >> [russian] >> i would like about the supply of -- i would like to draw attention about the supply of other high-tech weapons and equipment for inflicting attacks on russian territory. >> [speaking russian] >> in this regards, russia does not rule out cooperation with the democratic people's or public of korea. according to the documents signed today. >> we've got some pictures of vladimir putin who has just arrived in hanoi on the final stage of his trip abroad.
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you can see him meeting the dignitaries on the runway. let's bring in dr. sue kim who is a former cia analyst on north korea and a former assistant secretary of defense for security affairs and a donald trump. he was at the u.s.-north korea summit and sing up or in 2018. welcome to you both. you must have reflected on these events today, the context of what happened in 2018 and i'm not sure anyone ever believed north korea was about to open up in the way the trump administration suggested. we are so far from that. in the world appears to be splitting into two axes. >> thanks for having me indeed in 2018. most of us regarded a breakthrough for the probability but given the risks, it was worth trying a president trump was the first to get the leader of north korea to sign up to
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certain commitments. the previous agreements have been completed at lower levels. the ukraine conflict, vladimir putin's unprovoked aggression has changed the strategic context to all of this and i think his trip to pyongyang sort of cements the fact that we are moving into a different world where there is an axis. china and iran added to that but certainly a mutually necessary relationship between north korea and russia as we go forward. >> just before we talk about the events today and what comes out of this agreement, if it were to be a trump presidency next time around, the relationship, as you say, is surely finished. what will concern people is that we return to a period pre-2018 exchanging insults and things took a disastrous turn for the worse. is that a concern now that these four countries are all aligned
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together? >> i would look at the. -- i would look at the period post hanoi. it completed with no agreement. both leaders went home. we had a period of relative stability in terms of north korea testing, in terms of provocative military activities. depending on north korean behavior of course, that would be the steady state to expect if there were to be a second trump term. christian: let's turn to the events today. dr. kim, i described it as a mutual defense pact. what do you think it is? >> that is how we would describe it, too. interestingly, he called an alliance. that goes a couple steps further than what we had feared, i would say. that of course raises us to the current situation in the midst of the ukraine war where russia was the aggressor and north korea continues to ramp up its
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military provocations and continues to build up its nuclear arsenal. the two countries are calming this agreement, this new elevated relationship as a form of defense against the aggressions of the united states and its like-minded partners which is obviously not true so the way we look at this is of course unprecedented in that the two leaders are coming together but it makes sense for the two to come together at this stage because they need each other to further their own ambitions. christian: as a senior analyst on north korea, you've looked at the way things move and what sort of material north korea is sending to the outside world. can you explain to us how the weapons, the ballistic missiles are being sent to russia and in what quantities? dr. kim: sure. so we are seeing shipment from north korea to russia.
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my concern we have is that the connection between -- in the cases where the shipments were being sent from north korea into russia, how is the united states going to intercept them? there is a big problem when you cannot go into the country? we are looking at millions of artillery rounds and assistance with missiles. the componentsave not been affected but still, russia is at a point of desperation that it needs all the help that it gets. north korea is going to acally be able to get things in return such as economic assistance but more importantly, the critical technology to expand a sophisticated weapons program. christian: you are in the camp, are you, that the russians might be exchanging material for the spy satellite system for the nuclear program which it has
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still not finished, and certainly the delivery mechanisms for those nuclear warheads? dr. kim: that is what we are fearing at this point because if you look, he would not just be signing a mutual defense pact with russia which has far bigger implications just for economics. there has to be something of significance that kim jong-un would want in putin is actually willing to give and that was to -- the next step to not just wreak havoc in the region but of course be in a position to threaten the u.s. christian: i think we lost randy. i was going to ask him what sort of deterrent could be put in place, but i mean, of course, these two countries are the most heavily sanctioned countries on earth anyway. and past bombing trains that leave north korea for russia, there is not an awful lot the west can do to stop this, is
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there? dr. kim: we have applied sanctions as well as russia for its invasion against ukraine. a question as to whether or not they are being effective. big question mark. they decided to go against the renewal. it takes away the -- to monitor for sanctions. it has to be done in a way with a more holistic policy and approach for the countries. when you're talking about conflict in eastern europe and the tinderbox in east asia, there's so many ways for these actors to bypass sanctions and scared at the mechanisms that it becomes very difficult.
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christian: do you think it has been a shift in the power dynamic between these two leaders. if the first time he has been there in 24 years. in a way, it was the soviet union that put the kim's in place so they were a client state for the soviet union. that is not the case anymore, is it? dr. kim: that is a really interesting point. putin is actually traveling to north korea with height in hand to appeal for kim jong-un -- aht in hand -- hat in hand so the dynamics have changed and the reason why of course is the war. we have to think about if there was no more, if there was a ukraine at that point, would we actually see this at such a historic level and what we actually be in a complex situation where the united
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states and the international community -- how to deal with the liberating relationship? right now, north korea -- we have to bring in -- because they tend together. they tend to work together at the times -- for the united states and the international community. christian: it has been good to talk to you. thank you for coming on the program. thanks to randy, who we lost a little earlier. thank you ry much to him. you are watching bbc news. let's have a quick look at some of the news here in the uk today. a protest group has targeted stonehenge. the day before summer solstice celebrations begin. orange paint wasn't sprayed on the ancient stone circle. two people were arrested.
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they look after sites and the incident was externally upsetting. a baby girl has died after beg bitten by the family's pet dog at a house in coventry, treated by paramedics at the scene before being taken to hospital where she died a short time later. police say the dog was not classed as a dangerous breed and was removed from the home the same day and humanely destroyed. spanish police and mountain su teams are continuing to search for a teenager from lancashire who went missing on monday after a music festival. he called a friend that morning, saying he had missed her bus and was planning to make the 10 hour walk back to his apartment. a little earlier, i was telling you that richey cnet has been given the news today that one of his police constables irving in his close protection team was arrested for placing bets over the timing of the general election.
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the metropolitan police said the officer was taken into custody on monday in connection with an allegation of misconduct in a public office. he has since been bailed pending further inquiries. chris mason has the detail. chris: an officer very close to the prime minister charged with -- ensuring the prime minister safety, being investigated over bets on the timing of the election. clearly, there is at least a concern, a suspicion, that the officer may have known more than was in the public domain at the time, hence an investigation by the gambling commission and indeed by the metropolitan police. if all of this has a splash of deja vu in your mind, and of all the various bits of election noise and hullabaloo that have been around us in the last couple of ways, you might remember the story that we brought you last week, originally broken by the guardian, and my colleague
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catching up with craig williams, a to the prime minister, who -- aide to the prime minister who described a huge error of judgment. he put a bet on the timing of the german election. plenty of people at westminster, me included, were assuming the election was going to be in the autumn. there were a handful of folk might have known about it, hence you get these kind of investigations. right now, a police officer suspended and under investigation. >> chris mason reporting a little earlier. richey sumac has welcomed the latest figures that show inflation has fallen to the bank of england target of 2% for the first time in neay three years. he said it was the evidence that the government difficult decisions were starting to pay off. neighbor said the financial
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pressures on the households are still acute. the improved figures are down to a slight fall in the price of food and soft drinks. and slower price rises for household goods and furniture. food prices on average are still 25% higher than they were in 2022 and petrol prices have risen sharpl i'm joined by anna andrade, the economist at bloomberg. nice to see you. does the government get credit for this? >> hi, not really. the reason why the inflation is back to target after being at double digits sort of last year, one of the reasons is the big fall in energy prices that we have been seeing since october, really, last year, and we have had another big fall in april. the energy prices fell by 12% and that is one reason. the other reason is food so it's inflation down and it's notiving
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really up to the government but it is good news nonetheless. christian: i take your point that when you're blaming, as they did, when inflation was at 11%, the outside forces, you cannot readily take the credit. that said, those same outside forces applied to other countries in the g7 and inflation is at the lowest in the uk with the exception of italy so the government must have done something right. anna: i think one of the reasons why inflation is so low and when you look at the u.s. or the euro area, the uk has been sort of one of the major economies to actually get to target at 2%. one of the reasons is because of how the energy price cap works here, so we have had sort of more mechanical decrease in energy prices that has fed through more evidently in the headline measure whereas in the euro area, that is happening but
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it takes more time. it is sort of a more relaxed five. here, it isuite automatic so in a way, that also helps explain because then if you look at services inflation and that bit of the basket, it is more related to the domestic pressures of the economy. then if you look at the moment, and services inflation which is measured by the three months on three month analyzed rate, that is very similar to the euro area so in that sort of, you know, measure, the sort of persistence and inflation momentum is the same. christian: i see. ok. what does the bank of england do about this? the thing that really matters to people watching is the cost of their mortgage, of course. the interest rates on their loan do you think now that it is at 2%, the bank of england will move quickly? anna: the bank of england cannot ignore that headline inflation is at 2%. we have come a long way and it has been enough in the data that it leaves you more confident
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that it can cut rates. we think our view is that the bank of england will cut rates soon. we think tomorrow's meeting is not the live one because of the election but we actually think that august might be the first time that the bank of england moves to cut rates but then the question is about the scale of the easing and how many rate cuts are we going to see this year? then i go back to the bit about the services inflation where he be so persistent and the bank of england need to see a little bit more so it will start in august but probably only cut rates by 50 basis points. two times. that is in august and november. christian: although western leaders are being punished for the rate of inflation. you see it in all the electio that we have been reporting on. is that because although we are target rate, the inflation that we have had is baked in? if you look at food prices over the last three years, they have
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gone up 25%. when you talk about 2%, it's important to remember that wage have not risen to keep track of these prices. that is why people are feeling the squeeze. anna: in the uk, private sector wages -- whole economy wages actually caught up now. real wages, we have recovered. there was a hit last year but we sort of have recovered so households have sort of regained chasing power compared to before. the energy prices, sorry. it's not about that. they tend to look at inflation more of their wages and what they are going to think about is that prices are higher by 20% since the pandemic, since 2019, actually, since the last election, and the interesting thing is that when you look at the living standards, living standards grew at the slowest
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pace on record during the past government so that is what -- sorry. that is what they will be holding on. christian: you have done brilliantly with that cough, fantastically well. i'm sorry we push you right to the end. thank you very much for coming on the program. the europe editor for bloomberg. we are going to talk plenty more of course about inflation at the s&p manifesto with our panel at 9:00 this evening. the other side of the break, really interesting stories. particularly news today from london that naomi campbell has her own show. it's a celebration of the supermodel, naomi campbell, so we are going to talk a little bit about that with one of the fashion journalists who has really interesting thoughts on what she had done for fashion over the years since she first burst onto the stage at age 15. we will take a short break. we will be back right after
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this. do stay with us. announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. cunard is a proud supporter of public television. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: get the free pbs app now and stream the best of pbs.
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