wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. now you won't miss a thing. this is the way. xfinity internet. made for streaming. ♪ geoff: good evening. i'm geoff bennett. amna: and i'm amna nawaz. on "the newshour" tonight, wikileaks founder julian assange agrees to plead guilty to a national security crime, in exchange for his release. geoff: the u.s. surgeon general declares gun violence a public health crisis. amna: and a behind-the-scenes look at how the pbs news/npr/marist poll is conducted. >> why do you think people should trust polls?

>> i don't know that it's about trust and it's about faith. it should really be about science. ♪ >> major funding for "the pbs newshour" has been provided by -- the ongoing support of these individuals and institutions, and friends of "the newshour," including kathy and paul anderson, and camilla and george smith. >> cunard is a proud supporter of public television. on a voyage with cunard, the world awaits. a world of flavor, diverse destinations, and immersive experiences. a world of leisure, and british style.

all with cunard's white star service. >> the john s. and james l. knight foundation, fostering informed and engaged communities. more at kf.org. and with the ongoing support of these individuals and institutions -- ♪ this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. amna: welcome to "the newshour."

wikileaks founder julian assange, a brave whistleblower to his allies, a national security threat to his critics, is on the verge of being a free man. geoff: assange is pleading guilty in a court in the northern mariana islands, a u.s. commonwealth, and will be sentenced to time served, allowing him to return to his native australia. nick schifrin is here tracking this story. nick? nick: geoff, assange is notorious for some of the largest leaks of classified information in u.s. history, as well as posting emails that played an outsized role in the 2016 election. and tonight, the wikileaks founder is ending a decade-long legal saga with the u.s., and heading home. tonight, julian assange's brief and final moments on u.s. soil, to appear in perhaps the u.s.' most remote courthouse, on the northern mariana islands. his road to freedom began this morning, on the way to a british airport. signing his plea deal documents and landing in bangkok, his

first time outside of the united kingdom in 14 years. court documents reveal that assange will plead guilty a single felony, to receive and obtain documents, writings, and notes connected with the national defense, including such materials classified up to the secret level, and willfully communicate documents relating to the national defense. he will spend no time in u.s. jail. and more than 62 months spent in a british prison will count for time served, allowing him to return to his native australia, where prime minister anthony albanese today celebrated his release. >> regardless of the views that people have about mr. assange's activities, the case has dragged on for too long. there is nothing to be gained by his continued incarceration and we want him brought home to australia. >> the course of the war needs to change. nick: nearly 15 years ago, assange presented himself as the ultimate truth-teller, revealing what he called the reality of the wars in iraq and afghanistan. >> come on, fire.

nick: including a 2007 u.s. military attack in baghdad, that killed two reuters journalists. wikileaks dropped 400,000 classified documents, that the pentagon said risked u.s. informants' lives. they were leaked by u.s. army intelligence analyst chelsea manning, who was later convicted under the espionage act. in 2010, he was arrested by british authorities after two swedish women accused him of sexual assault, charges later dropped. and after failing to make bail, he fled into ecuador's embassy in london, where he remained for seven years. >> as wikileaks stands under threat, so does the freedom of expression. >> wikileaks has released what appears to be transcripts. nick: in 2016, wikileaks posted documents that russian intelligence had hacked from the hillary clinton campaign. clinton said it helped lead to her defeat. >> he has to answer for what he has done, at least what's been charged. nick: by 2019, a u.s. grand jury indicted assange on 18 counts

including espionage, the embassy evicted him, and british authorities arrested for bail violation. a free speech crusader to his allies, a threat to national security to his critics. assange will now be able to write a new chapter, in australia, with his wife stella. >> i'll really believe it when i have him in front of me and i can take him and hug him and then it will be real, you know? nick: for more on assange's plea deal, we get two views. jamil jaffer is the founder of the national security institute at george mason university. he's a former house intelligence committee and justice department official. and trevor timm, founder and executive director of the freedom of the press foundation, which specializes in free speech and government transparency. thank both of you. should julian assange have been prosecuted to the full extent of the law? jamil: absolutely. julian assange has leaked

documents that put thousands of american soldiers and intelligence officers' lives at risk. he's probably gotten a number of our afghan allies killed. he deserved to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law and deserved a life sentence in jail frankly. trevor: absolutely not and he should not have been prosecuted in the first place. this case has been a ticking time bomb for press freedom in the united states for several years. what julian assange is accused of and what he pled guilty to is receiving and obtaining documents and publishing those documents the government considers a secret. that is actions journalists engage in every day. nick: was julian assange a journalist and doing what the new york times and washington post do every day? jamil: not even a little bit. he doesn't uphold any traditional aspect of the press. he doesn't vet his sources carefully. he doesn't take action to protect innocence involved.

on the contrary he just dumps , documents out. revealed the names of many confidential informants that may have been attacked by the taliban and others and killed. the idea that julian assange is some hero for the little guy, he is not a journalist, he has never been a journalist. let's be real, honest journalists like you don't consider him a journalist. nick: regardless of my opinion julian assange posted documents , that did reveal the names of afghans and iraqis who were helping the united states. does this make him not a journalist? trevor: it doesn't matter if i think he is not a journalist or whatever you think. what matters is the acts he is charged under. thankfully in this country the government does not get to decide who is and is not a journalist. the first amendment provides that right to everybody. and what the acts they are saying that he committed are to receive and obtain documents and publish those documents. when you read the plea detail it

says nothing about sources and methods or redactions. you could take the most ethical careful journalist in the world , who checks their sources a million times, and under the letter of what this plea deal says, the u.s. government thinks they can also be prosecuted for the same thing. nick: let me highlight what the plea deal is. a federal grand jury in 2019 indicted assange on 17 counts of espionage and one on computer fraud. today's plea deal has him guilty of one count of espionage. so why after a 12 year long saga with this plea deal focused on espionage and only one count: jamil: it is the bigger case for the united states government. conspiracy to commit computer fraud, people get charged with that all the time. the espionage count is a critical one and the one julian assange admitted and is now pled guilty to. it is not just receiving and publishing information, it is conspiring to get a person with access to that information to reveal it to him.

that is illegal and it should be illegal. it is not something any responsible journalist does. they don't provoke someone to give them classified information. they simply receive it. they publish at. that is not at all what julian assange did. he worked with others to obtain classified information and publish it cavalierly without regard for the lives of those involved. nick: what is the impact of what you were pointing out, that this is not about computer fraud, at least the agreement that assange has made today, that it is about espionage: -- espionage? trevor: i think it is naive to say journalists just wait for documents to magically land in their lap, and that is the only time in which they will publish them. if you ask any national security journalist, of course they ask their sources for information and documents and follow-up questions, and prod them for anymore data they can get to find out what the government is doing behind closed doors. a journalist at the new york

times, washington post, or wall street journal is committing this quote-unquote conspiracy on a weekly or daily basis. that is what makes these charges so concerning for press freedom advocates. it is not just my organization, it is literally every press freedom organization in the country, every human rights organization it is every civil , liberty organization. it's a ticking time bomb for journalists in this country, and we have an election coming up where we have one presidential candidate talking openly on the campaign trail about putting more journalists in jail. and so, to me, that is a very worrying prospect for the near future. nick: let me ask about some of the republican responses to this plea deal, and this seems to show that this is not a clear ideological divide that assange has created. one is former vice president mike pence who said the biden administration's plea deal with assange is a miscarriage of justice, and dishonors the service and sacrifice of the men and women of our armed forces and their families.

at the same time, representative marjorie taylor greene, quote, julian assange is set to be released after being held for years for the crime of committing journalism. praise god for setting him free. what does it say that you have those two diametrically opposed responses? jamil: mike pence is obviously right here. julian assange has never been a journalist. he has never purported to be one for real. here is the thing about it at the end of the day, no real journalist has ever been prosecuted for this and no real journalist would be because they didn't act the way julian assange did. not in the ecuadorian embassy where he got kicked out not the , sexual assault charges, none of those things. not to mention not putting the lives of innocent people who helped the u.s. and our allies out at risk. trevor: what you are leaving out is several administrations in the past 50 years have threatened journalists under the espionage act and almost prosecuted them. the new york times was this close to being prosecuted for

publishing the pentagon papers under the nixon administration. there was a grand jury impaneled. dick cheney under the ford administration wanted to charge the new york times under the espionage act. there have been several close calls. the only reason it has not gone through is because government officials had been worried ultimately the law would be overturned as unconstitutional. what they found with julian assange is an unpopular and polarizing figure that journalists will not defend because they may not like him and that is incredibly dangerous. bad facts make bad law. that is why everybody was so worried about this case. if there was a precedent set with julian assange because of the charges in the documents that the government says, it means they can then turn around and use that on the new york times or washington post. whether or not there are cosmetic differences between the two. nick: jamil jaffer, trevor timm. thanks to you both. ♪

stephanie: i'm stephanie sy with "newshour west." here are the latest headlines -- israel's supreme court ruled that the military must draft ultra-orthodox jewish men for mandatory service. the unanimous decision ends decades of broad exemptions. it also deals a political blow to prime minister benjamin netanyahu and his governing coalition, which had long objected to this move. and it comes as netanyahu's defense minister yoav gallant, is in washington for meetings with pentagon officials. as the war grinds on in gaza and fighting between israeli forces and lebanon-based hezbollah intensifies, defense secretary lloyd austin said diplomacy is key to avoiding a second front. sec. austin: hezbollah's provocations threaten to drag the israeli and lebanese people into a war that they do not want.

such a war would be a catastrophe for lebanon and it would be devastating for innocent israeli and lebanese civilians. stephanie: meantime, u.n. officials told israel they will suspend aid operations in gaza unless urgent steps are taken to protect humanitarian workers on the ground. kenya's president has vowed to maintain calm "at whatever cost" after protesters stormed the nation's parliament today. frustrations boiled over as legislators passed a finance bill that imposes new taxes. television cameras that followed the protesters inside showed the seat of government ransacked and vandalized. outside, police fired live ammunition and hurled tear gas to disperse the crowds. health officials say at least five people were killed. both the u.s. state department and united nations have condemned the violence. the international criminal court in the netherlands issued arrest warrants today for two russian officials. former defense minister sergei shoigu and military chief of

staff valery gerasimov are charged with war crimes for targeting ukrainian power plants. the pair are unlikely to be detained, as russia doesn't recognize the court's jurisdiction. russia's security council blasted the decision, calling it "part of the west's hybrid warfare against our country." a state department spokesperson says the u.s. supports any and all prosecutions of russia's actions in ukraine. >> we have made clear that there have been atrocities committed by russian forces in their illegal invasion of ukraine and that there ought to be accountability for those atrocities. we support a range of international investigations into russia's atrocities in ukraine including the one conducted by the icc. stephanie: meanwhile, european union officials started membership talks with ukraine today, as well as moldova. it's a major milestone for both nations, though the talks could take years to wrap up. ukraine hopes to be a full eu member by 2030. a north korean ballistic missile test appeared to end in failure

today, according to military officials in south korea. the missile was launched toward the north's eastern waters, covering about 124 miles before falling outside japan's exclusive economic zone. the test came days after north korea criticized the deployment of a u.s. aircraft carrier to south korea. that vessel is expected to take part in joint military drills later this month. a new york judge has partially lifted the gag order on donald trump from his hush money trial. the decision comes just days before the former president squares off against joe biden in the first presidential debate. trump can now comment publicly about the jurors and witnesses in the case. that includes his former lawyer michael cohen, and adult film actress stormy daniels. but he is still barred from speaking publicly about court staff, including the judge himself, as well as the prosecution and their families. trump's lawyers vowed to challenge today's decision, saying the gag order should be lifted completely.

norfolk southern withheld key information during the response to last year's train derailement near east palestine, ohio. that's according to new findings by the national transportation safety board. dozens of cars fell off the tracks during the february 2023 crash, some containing toxic gases. company officials advised firefighters to release those gases from several overheating cars to avoid an explosion. that so-called "vent and burn" sent toxic smoke into the sky. at a hearing today, ntsb members addressed evidence that northfolk southern held back data that the cars were actually cooling after the crash. and it turns out, an explosion was not imminent. >> had there been more thought given to the evidence that was available at the time, had there been more opportunity for contrasting views to be shared and discussed, i feel like we might still be here today talking about a derailment, but

i don't think we would be talking about a vent and burn, and i think it's very unfortunate. stephanie: oklahoma's supreme court ruled today that a state board's approval of a religious charter school was unconstitutional. the decision comes after a coalition of parents and faith leaders sued to stop its establishment. in its ruling, the court wrote, "under oklahoma law, a charter school is a public school. as such, a charter school must be nonsectarian." the case comes after recent u.s. supreme court rulings that indicate a willingness to allow the use of public funds for religious entities. there's more rain in the forecast for parts of the midwest already drenched by floodwaters. at least two people have died. in minnesota, south of minneapolis, county officials say a dam along the blue earth river, already damaged, will survive the flooding. homes have been evacuated downstream, including this one,

left teetering as the ground beneath it erodes. residents could only watch, and hope that their homes will survive. >> now, the threat of our house, my family house, where i grew up, is threatened by the force of mother nature. stephanie: the governors of iowa and south dakota say the flooding has damaged roads and bridges, forced hospitals to evacuate, and left entire cities without power or safe drinking water. officials have reported hundreds of water rescues. all this as the very same areas remain under heat warnings, many temperatures feeling 100 degrees or higher. still to come on "the newshour" -- the crisis of starvation and displacement afflicting millions of children in sudan and gaza. federal judges in kansas and missouri block president biden's latest student loan repayment plan. and a look at why a growing number of young men are choosing not to go to college.

>> this is "the pbs newshour" from weta studios in washington, and in the west from the walter cronkite school of journalism at arizona state university. amna: a new advisory from the u.s. surgeon general declares gun violence in america is an urgent public health crisis. the report, citing rising deaths of young people and broad mental health impacts, argues for a comprehensive approach to stem gun violence, similar to tobacco-related and motor-vehicle-related deaths. the national rifle association today called it an extension of the biden administration's war on law-abiding gun owners. joining us now is a doctor emmy betz, she is an emergency room physician and director of the firearm injury prevention initiative at the university of colorado. welcome back and thank you for joining us. you work in an er in colorado. you run this firearm injury invention initiative. from what you have seen in your

work is this public health declaration necessary right now? dr. betz: i really think it is because i think it lays out two key tenants. the first is that this is a health problem. we are trying to prevent the injury, the death, the psychological harm related to firearms. it is not about the device itself, it is about the negative consequences it can have. it is also acknowledging that public health is a science. we have a framework of how we can prevent these injuries and deaths. it is a harm nobody wants to have happen. having a report of this magnitude really lays it out and points us in a way forward. amna: what does labeling it a public health crisis change in the way of what you see every day in your e.r. or in terms of the funding for actual resource that goes into firearm injury prevention? what changes with this? dr. betz: when we talk about a public health approach what it really is is a four step cycle that first starts with looking at data to understand who is

being injured and killed or why. is it from suicide, mass shootings, youth violence? then it is about identifying the strategies that will work to prevent those injuries and deaths and those harms. what works in wyoming for suicide prevention might be really different than what works in denver for youth at risk of interpersonal violence. and then the public health approach, we further the things that are affected, we scale them up in a big way. using that approach and what this report can help us really think about in a more systematic way is what do we know that already works and how can we scale that up? things like community violence intervention programs or respectful counseling by health care providers. where are the gaps? what do we not know? where it we invest in funding? again, it is a big and messy problem so it is going to take multiple different solutions but this framework can help us think about the problem in a

systematic way. amna: you mentioned data and there is a lot of data we have already and i want to underscore some of that for our viewers. the report includes statistics we've reported on a number of times. since 2020, firearm-related injuries have been the leading cause of death for u.s. children. in 2022, more than 48,000 people were killed in gun violence, more than half of all gun related deaths in 2022 were from suicides. this is an alarming trend. among people ages 25 to 34, the firearm-related suicide rate has climbed 43% in the past decade. i know much of your work in colorado revolves around gun related suicides. what explains the sharp increase? dr. betz: a recent trend has been increasing willingness to talk about mental health and mental illness and the stresses we are going through and that is certainly important. that is certainly -- but we also know that firearm and firearm

availability can significantly increase the risk of death when someone is going through a period. it is not that the firearm causes a suicide. the presence of a gun alone is not going to make someone think of suicide. but if someone is going to maybe -- through a bad patch, maybe divorce and mental illness combined with a bunch of other things, if they reach for a gun in that moment they are unlikely to survive. it is very much like a designated driver to help somebody get home from the bar when they be they are not at their best or thinking their clearest. that is the similar approach we need in the firearm suicide prevention space. amna: this report also aims to take the conversation out of the political realm and into the public health realm. the report calls for things like universal background checks, a ban on assault weapons, things that have been up for discussion before and have not politically been able to move forward. i wonder if you think in this climate those kind of steps are even possible. dr. betz: i have to think yes in

-- yes and i have to think that everything is possible. none of us want these injuries and deaths to be happening. we all want our families to be happy and safe. i hope we can have everything on the table for consideration. including recognizing what things have evidence behind them and which do not and how do we decide as a society to move forward. at the university of colorado we are proud to be working in a nonpartisan space. we recognize legislation can be part of the solution but it is not the only solution and i think sometimes we can feel so paralyzed by the political debate that we forget there are a lot of other things we can be doing in the meantime to help prevent these injuries and deaths that nobody wants. amna: thank you. good to speak with you. dr. betz: thank you. ♪

geoff: a high risk of famine persists across the gaza strip, with 96% of gaza's more than two million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity. that stark number comes from a report released today by a coalition of u.n. agencies and non profit humanitarian organizations, known as the ipc. it rates the severity of food crises. they found that in southern gaza, the situation has deteriorated since the start of the israeli offensive in rafah nearly two months ago. and in sudan, there is growing evidence that the civil war, now in its second year, is creating the world's largest hunger crisis. the conflict is propelling the country toward famine, with an estimated 24 million children left especially vulnerable. catherine russell joins us now, executive director of unicef, joining us from sudan. welcome back. catherine: thank

you. geoff: the biggest hunger crisis in the world is unfolding in sudan right now, and it is manmade. the warring groups are restricting the delivery of desperately needed aid. how does that affect the relief effort, and what does it mean for the children that your organization aims to assist? catherine: the thing to understand about sudan is that there are several terrible things happening at one time. one is that there is a terrible conflict here, and children are being directly impacted by that. children being killed, maimed and other things. we estimate that four million children are severely malnourished right now. and that's because we can't get access to food, we can't get access to the children. of that number, over 700,000 are what we call severe acute malnutrition. and those children are honestly near death. and it's quite terrifying for us to deal with this. they need therapeutic feeding. and the challenge for us is that we can't get to them. and if i can also add that one of the other problems we have is

that roughly 17 million children of 19 million children who should be in school are out of school right now and have been out of school for a year. so all of these terrible things are happening to children at one time, and it makes sudan one of the worst places in the world to be a child. geoff: sudan now also has the largest number of displaced people in the world, the largest child displacement crisis. i understand you recently visited a site for internally displaced people and spent some time visiting with young girls. what did you see? what did they tell you? catherine: i met girls who had been displaced, a couple of them, several times. they ended up in this facility where we were working with them. they had to flee their homes. one girl told me she didn't have anything with her. no papers, nothing. but these girls still somehow have optimism about the future. and i was saying to them, what do you think about when you when you get older, what do you want to be? i met with four of them, and two of them told me they wanted to be lawyers. one wanted to be a doctor, one wanted to be an architect. even ithe worst situations,

they can think about something positive. but we are not doing enough to make it safe and easy for them to live and to grow up and to have a decent life. geoff: you know, it might be too late to stop the descent into famine in sudan, but what's needed right now to mitigate it? catherine: one is that we need better access. we have got to be able to get to these children, and we've got to be able to provide the resources they need so that they can survive. and second, and this is what the kids told me yesterday, what they really need is peace. and they want peace desperately. geoff: i also want to ask you about the desperate situation in gaza. the ipc says that almost half a million gazans are facing what they called catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity. international aid operations have all but collapsed since israel's offensive in rafah, according to their report. how would you characterize the situation on the ground in gaza right now? catherine: catastrophic is a good word for it. it is, again, a situation where

we do not have sufficient access to the people who need the help, to the children who need the help. a lot of reasons for that. but at the end of the day, the world is failing these children and we have to do better. we have to get to them the provisions that make it possible for them to survive and ultimately have a decent life. that's not what's happening right now. geoff: you know, for children in conflict zones, beyond the urgent and immediate need for food and safe and stable shelter, there are so often, as you well know, mental health issues that go unaddressed, trauma that goes unaddressed. these kids obviously are not in school. what's the long term implication of that? catherine: conflict and war is the worst thing for children for two reasons. one, because they're affected directly by it. they can be killed or maimed. but two, because children really rely on government services, that means education and health care. and when they can't get that, it makes their situation very precarious. and the challenges of the long term psychosocial issues are real. i mean, these kids have suffered so much.

i met a woman today who's a counselor here in port sudan, who is working with children who have real trauma issues. you know, what that's going to look like 20, 30 years from now? lord knows. but it will be bad. and it is quite destabilizing for them right now. and something we're trying really hard to deal with. but, you know, part of it, as i said, is access. part of it also is, you know, we all need more resources to deal with this because the demands are so incredible on us and the partners that we're working with on the ground. geoff: catherine russell, executive director of unicef, joining us tonight from sudan. thanks so much. catherine: thanks so much. ♪ amna: the presidential campaign has kicked into high gear as joe biden and donald trump prepare to meet for their first 2024 debate on thursday. the two men have been locked in

a tight race for months, and no other candidates reached the required polling threshold to be on the stage. lisa desjardins takes a closer look at how polls work with our partners at the marist poll. lisa: inside the offices of the marist institute for public opinion. >> my name is jacob, i'm a student calling from marist college. lisa: there's a buzz in the room. over several hours and days, nearly two dozen student workers make hundreds of phone calls and send thousands of text messages. overseeing it all, lee miringoff, the director of the institute, and barbara carvalho, the director of the marist poll. >> they are the ones that are talking one-on-one with americans. lisa: talking about issues, or. >> hello? lisa: in many, many, many, cases. >> is there a better time i could call you back? lisa: not talking at all. >> have a great rest of your day. lisa: how would you describe the ratio of calls you get all the way through to dials you have to

make to get that one? >> on a normal night, it's about 100 to 1. lisa: 100 calls to get one survey? >> yep. lisa: but on this night, a volunteer. as i hopped on the phones to experience the rejection first hand. that's the end i think. he hung up. me and my fellow callers all were trained for this. >> how about we try a few questions? lisa: both online. >> the survey should take about 12 minutes. lisa: and in person. training required before any calls are made. every step of the marist poll is carefully considered. >> i think it is going to be hot. lisa: starting about two weeks before with our team at news hour, where we discuss, sometimes disagree politely, and decide what issues we'd like to raise. >> how satisfied are you with the two candidates for

president? lisa: then pollsters at marist with decades of experience finesse the language and order of the questions. >> make sure that the question is understandable. no matter who that person is that may be answering it. lisa: once that wording is set, all the callers including me ask the exact same questions, the exact same way. >> the reason why everyone is saying the same thing is to not introduce any bias into the survey. lisa: and every single word, the same thing every single time. >> every single time. no inflection on any word. lisa: breaking up the repetition on the phones, a prize wheel spins in the back of the room, signaling a streak of completed calls. you may be getting the point here. in-person calls are not easy and are labor intensive. to get a nationally-representative and random survey of respondents, the poll relies on companies

that aggregate all the telephone numbers in the country. as technology has evolved, so has the way marist does this. over time, landline calls grew to include cell phones. and now there are text messages and online responses, too. >> we just couldn't do telephone surveys because people aren't necessarily going to be responding that way, because we want to use the method that's going to give everybody a known or equal chance of getting into the survey. >> this is the data. lisa: as the surveys are underway, the results are being carefully monitored by stephanie calvano, the director of data science. >> i am running prelim data. i'm looking at all the frequencies. lisa: to the untrained eye, including mine, it might look like endless columns and rows of numbers, but. >> each of these are codes that are the responses to questions. lisa: what do you see wh you look at this data? do you instantly translate it? >> i can, yes.

lisa: the raw data also need context, what pollsters call weighting, mathematical adjustments to make sure the final numbers actually reflect the larger population. for instance, if one survey happens to get 60% of its responses from women, when we know the u.s. population is actually just over 50% women, marist would increase the weight of answers from the men who responded. >> the goal of having a representative cross-section of america in this case is where you want to be. if you want to think of it as a soup recipe. well, what are the ingredients and how much of each ingredient do we want in it? well, that we can find out by literally checking with the census numbers. lisa: as the methods and the science have grown more complicated, polling itself has grown more prominent. becoming a staple of cable news campaign coverage of who's up and who's down.

shaping the candidates' messages. >> trump is a convicted criminal. lisa: and even helping decide who qualifies to be on the presidential debate stage this week. that matchup will feature just two candidates, joe biden and donald trump, who have consistently pulled at least 15% support in national polls. polls, including yours, are used as qualifications for debates. what do you think about that? >> that's bad. we think it's a horrible use of public polls. lisa: why? >> polls have a scientific basis to them, but that doesn't mean there's not a range in the numbers. lisa: a little polling glossary here. he means the margin of error, the range above and below the poll result that represents where, mathematically, the true feelings of the entire country, or larger group, could be. margins of error as well as some

high-profile differences between polls and election results have helped some candidates fuel public doubts in polling at large. >> polls are definitely better for some things than others. lisa: courtney kennedy is the vice president of methods and innovation at the pew research center. she says it all comes down to how you use polls. >> can we use polling to predict the winner in a very competitive election? the answer is no. i love polling, but it's just not a precise enough tool to do that. polling is absolutely up to that task of giving us a high level read of how the public feels about a major issue of the day. lisa: and not all polls are created equal. which is confusing. so, how should people figure out if a poll is, in a word, good? >> track record and transparency. is this a polling organization that you've heard of that has a track record of doing high quality non-partisan polls or not? polls that are willing to

disclose more detail about how they do their work, they tend to be more accurate. lisa: where does marist fit in all that? >> their track record is one of, trying really hard to be nonpartisan and doing rigorous polling. lisa: despite the science, and the work to be more transparent, polls themselves have an approval problem. trust us, we asked. during this pbs news/npr marist poll, 6 in 10 americans told us they have little to no trust in public opinion polls. why do you think people should trust polls? >> i don't know that it's about trust and it's about faith. it should really be about science. lisa: regardless of what they said or whether the trust in polling is irrevocably gone, all those respondents still answered the call. for the "pbs news hour," i'm lisa desjardins on the phones at marist college in poughkeepsie, new york. amna: and be sure to tune in to

pbs on thursday at 9:00 p.m. eastern for our simulcast of the cnn presidential debate with analysis to follow. ♪ geoff: a pair of decisions by two federal judges has put key parts of president biden's plans for easing student loan payments on hold, and their future in doubt. william brangham has the details on the impact. it's the first of a two-part focus tonight of our series, rethinking college. william: geoff, judges in kansas and missouri blocked parts of the biden administration's student loan repayment plan known as s.a.v.e. it offers a way for students and graduates to lower monthly payments and get some debt forgiveness. more than eight million people are currently enrolled, but these rulings put those key features on pause. so what does this mean for those

borrowers? danielle douglas-gabriel covers higher education for the washington post and joins us again now. thank you so much. before we get into the arguments embedded in these cases, can you remind us what the president and the administration's student loan repayment program was all about. who and how was the administration trying to help? danielle: thanks for having me. the objective was to try and make student loan payments more manageable for the vast majority of americans who have education debt. the way this would work is protecting more of the income that they earn from the calculation that determines their monthly bills. this is really built on a plan that has been in existence for 30 years in one iteration or the next. and it just makes it far more generous than what we have seen in the past by making sure that

people would not be saddled with unaffordable loan payments while they are trying to afford their mortgages or rent or car payment. however, the generosity of this plan is what is at issue, and whether or not the biden administration has legal authority to make such sweeping economic changes without congressional approval. william: what was the administration's argument for why people who had knowingly taken on debt should get this forgiveness or a reduction in their payments? danielle: honestly, this plan in one iteration or the next has existed since 1993, and the idea was always let's make sure people are not drowning in student loans as they are trying to make a life for themselves. but the difference here is the amount of loan forgiveness and the fast path towards loan forgiveness that this plan offered compared to some of the older plans under the suite of income driven repayment plans. william: these two suits were brought by a consortium of republican attorneys general in

different states and ruled on by two judges appointed by former president obama. what were they arguing about what is illegal here? danielle: both of the judges started to question whether the higher education act, which of save plan isooted in, really afforded the administration to make such sweeping changes without congressional approval. they believe that both of these cases have enough merit to move forward. both judges also questioned once all of these loans are forgiven, whether there is the potential for states to miss out on a lot of revenue. keep in mind that because of a law that was passed during the pandemic, people had their student loans forgiven anytime before december 2025 don't have to pay state and federal taxes on it. the states said we are going to miss out on potential tax revenue if this plan continues on. but the education department and

the biden administration has said there are a lot of other student loan forgiveness plans that are currently in play and creating the same kind of potential harm, and why are you not going after those? william: with these two rulings, what does this mean for the 8 million-plus people who are currently in that plan? what happens to them now? do their payments suddenly start to go up? what does the future look like for them? danielle: you are right, about 8 million people are part of the save plan for right now. their payment structure will stay the same. the challenge is the final piece of the plan that was supposed to take effect july 1 was going to cut those payments in half. it was going to lower it even further. they will not be able to take advantage of that. they will also not be able to take advantage of the loan forgiveness portion of the plan. the program creates a faster path to forgiveness by saying if you borrowed less than $12,000 originally and you have been in repayment for 10 years, then we

can forgive your remaining balance. 400,000 people have benefited from that plan since february. but that portion has now come to a halt. anyone who is in the queue for that kind of forgiveness will not be receiving it, as long as this case goes on, and until it is resolved. william: separate from the legal arguments here, how big a blow is this politically for the biden administration, which has been trying to make a lot of efforts to younger voters to say look, we are doing these substantive things for you. this now has a major roadblock. danielle: certainly these decisions undermine the biden administration's efforts to really stake out a claim as the president who has delivered the most student loan forgiveness, and has been the most generous and advantageous towards borrowers. there are still millions of people who have benefited from biden's suite of loan forgiveness plans and policies, and i imagine they will still

continue to do so under all the policies still in play. but in this particular plan that really was a cornerstone of what the president was trying to do for borrowers, and create a legacy of trying to be more generous and understanding with people who have been settled -- been saddled with education loans, this really was a hit. but look, the cases are still going. we don't know what the outcome is. but the two injunctions certainly do signal that the court is willing to entertain these arguments and could ultimately the states could prevail. william: danielle douglas-gabriel of the washington post, thank you so much for being here again. danielle: thanks for having me. ♪ geoff: now to our second story, about who is going to college. enrollment among young americans has been declining over the past decade, that decrease mostly driven by fewer young men pursuing degrees.

a pew research study finds there's about one million fewer young men now enrolled in college compared to 2011. we took at closer look at why, in the second part of our focus tonight on rethinking college. tomorrow morning in brentwood, new york, this man will graduate high school. but like a growing number of young men, college is not in his immediate plan. >> i started looking into colors too late and i could not decide what i wanted to do. i didn't know where i would get the money from. i just think it would be better if i started working immediately. geoff: raised by a single mother who also cares for his disabled brother, he says he plans to become a certified hvac technician. he has not ruled out going to college one day, but says it simply does not make sense right now. >> be fact i would have to pay even though i don't know what i want to do, and that i might not even get a job in the field i want. geoff: he is not alone. last year among high school graduates in the u.s., only 57%

of men enrolled in college, compared to 65% of women. it's a trend that dates back nearly three decades. every year since 1996, women have entered college at higher rates than men. >> the education system as a whole does not seem to be working quite as well with boys as it is for girls. geoff: richard is the author of, "of boys and men: why the modern male is struggling, why it matters and what to do about it." >> men are falling behind in education. the education gap is bigger now than it was in 1972. what accounts for that? >> the main reason is it is through the education system, girls are outperforming boys. you can see it from the beginning in kindergarten all the way through high school. if you look at high school gpa, which is a very good measure of success, take the top 10% of high school students. two thirds of them are girls. that obviously affects what is going to happen in the college

system. geoff: today, men make up only 42% of undergraduate students, and for young men of color, the gap is especially alarming. there are 50,000 fewer black men enrolled in college compared to pre-pandemic levels. >> i think college is becoming a tough sell for a lot of men. not necessarily because college is not a compelling idea, but rather because there are so many other competing factors that might be equally if not more so desirable. geoff: assistant professor at the university of delaware, he studies how black and latino adolescent boys experience school. he says for the young men he works with, problems often begin long before college. >> black and latino boys grow up in a society that stereotypes them as nonacademic, as socially threatening. and many of those types of stereotypes shape how their educators engage with them in schools. geoff: more women than men now have college degrees, according to u.s. census data, and they

are more likely to graduate within four years compared to men. it has led some colleges to target male students as a group in need of extra support. >> we are not pretending the problem does not exist, we are trying to address it head-on. geoff: jonathan is president of montclair state university. how do you craft a program that works to help men that does not come at the expense of women? >> oh, i don't think this is a matter of either/or and i don't think this is a matter of putting the needs of female students second. i think it is a matter of asking the basic question of why do we see differential graduation rates when we sort by gender and race? that is where you really start to see this gap widen. geoff: more than half of montclair state students come from underrepresented groups, and men make up just 40% of total enrollment. what are some of the consequences if more young men choose not to go to college?

>> there are so many consequences. i don't think that means everybody should get a four year degree. i don't think college is for everyone. but if you look at the data, the data says in terms of income, in terms of health, in terms of happiness, in terms of life satisfaction, your odds are better with a four year degree. geoff: in 2022, montclair state launched the male enrollment and graduation alliance, a task force developing programs that aim to recruit and retain more men. >> if you are experiencing any level of instability in your life, you are not alone. geoff: danny, the university's assistant provost for special programs, helps lead the initiative. last spring he welcomed 300 high schoolers from nearby cities in new jersey. for many, it was their first time on a college campus. >> please give all of them a round of applause. geoff: for jean, it was a chance to share his own story. >> my family moved over 12 times before i graduated from high school.

we were actually homeless at one time and had to move in with family members. i graduated high school at one point. a teacher who told me i would not be alive to see 25, alcoholics in my family, drug users in my family. this work is very personal for me. geoff: what have you found that works? what is the key to providing access, and once students get admitted, making sure they are successful? >> they really need to understand the benefit of college and help them understand exactly what college can offer and be able to map out what their plan is beyond high school. >> coming here was tough freshman year. geoff: and beyond academic help, he says some of the men also need social and emotional support once they arrive on campus. he meets often with a student organization that aims to do just that. >> it has allowed me to be confident. geoff: they help lead this group known as the brotherhood. >> it is important that men get support from each other. because we don't get enough. and everybody bottles in their emotions.

you have to keep this persona of being a tough guy. i figured out that's not the way to go. >> in the future what i want young men to realize, it's ok to come out of your comfort zone. when you come out of your comfort zone, at the end of the day when you walk on that stage in may, you're going to be grateful for it. geoff: last month mitchell did graduate with a degree in science. mckenna will do the same later this year. they say beyond the degree, college is already paying off. >> time management, respect among others, how to work with other people. all of that you can learn in college if you do college of the right way. geoff: back in brentwood, new york, he says he is comfortable with his own decision. >> i feel like i am entering a new chapter in my life. it is always exciting. i always wondered what was like to be a grown-up. now i get to experience it. geoff: as colleges try to figure out why so many young men are choosing a different path. ♪

amna: remember, there's a lot more online, including a look at why ukrainian children are appearing on russian adoption sites and the efforts to bring them home. you can find that story and much more on our youtube channel. geoff: and join us again here tomorrow night, when judy woodruff reports on the growing political divide within some christian communities as religious affiliation declines. and that is the newshour for tonight. i'm geoff bennett. amna: and i'm amna nawaz. on behalf of the entire "news hour" team, thank you for joining us. >> major funding for the "pbs newshour" has been provided by -- >> consumer cellular, this is sam. how may i help you? this is a pocket dial. well, somebody's pocket, thought i'd let you know that with consumer cellular, you get nationwide coverage with no contract. that's kind of our thing. have a nice day.

>> carnegie corporation of new york, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy, and peace. more information at carnegie.org. and with the ongoing support of these institutions -- this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> this is "pbs newshour west" from weta studios in washington and our bureau at the walter cronkite school of journalism at arizona state university. ♪ [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy.]

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