>> production assistance for "inside washington" was by albritton communications and "politico," reporting on the legislative, executive, and political arena. captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- >> i intend to speak in support of defendant obamacare until i am no longer able to stand. >> this week on "inside ted cruz launches an attack against obamacare, wielding the threat of a government shutdown if he does not get his way. for 21 hours,f

but you cannot blow the affordable care act away. do notamerican people want the president's health-care bill and they do not want the government shutdown. >> at the united nations, john kerry meets with his counterpart from iran amid reports of a breakthrough on syria chemical virginia governor candidates square off. >> he has referred to gay individuals as soulless human beings. >> the soulless comment is false. ♪ >> welcome to "inside washington ." i am mark shields, filling in for gordon peterson. as the report this program, it is not clear whether the

congress will avert the government shutdown on tuesday. the outcome depends on the ability of republicans to reconcile two factions of their own party -- those who worry they will take the blame if a government shutdown occurs, and those, including texas senator ted cruz, who believes the threat of the shutdown could force the defunding of the affordable care act, known as obamacare. >> no congress before this one has ever, ever, in history been irresponsible enough to threaten default. to blackmail a president into giving them some concessions on issues that have nothing to do with the budget. in hispresident has dug heels, refusing to negotiate, and conservative republicans have given no quarter in their demand even if the result is a government shutdown and other economic catastrophes area and

the republicans painted them -- catastrophes. other republicans painted themselves into a political corner? >> there are ways out, but we do not know if the votes are there. the rational strategy would be simple. there is tremendous opposition to shutting the government down, were threatening to, there is a remarkable support, a bloomberg want two-to-one, americans the debt ceiling to be tied to budget cuts, and believe that obama is wrong in negotiating over that. if republicans are smart, they will pass some kind of continuing resolution to allow the government to go on and they will put all of their effort where the public is behind them, on the debt ceiling, where americans think it would be a good idea to have a negotiation and get some cuts. , is that the bloomberg poll? >> yes, it was quite striking, and charles is right, that 61% included three quarters of

republicans, two thirds of independents, and a plurality of democrats saying negotiate the debt ceiling, put extra cuts in. they want to see more cuts, that we had another poll that showed the majority of americans want republicans to stop this stuff with obamacare. if you take them together with -- what the poll indicates is that the american public wants the people in washington to cut out the brinksmanship, the gamesmanship, and the threats, and sit down and do their jobs. , theerwhelmingly, nina democrats had seemed unified on this, and the division has been within the republican ranks to the point of ted cruz accusing other republican senate colleagues of being many neville chamberlain said munich. >> john mccain, in five minutes, and decapitated him on that. 40-to-60arkable that house members within the republican majority can prevent

a continuing resolution from keeping the federal government going, and that the speaker, the majority leader, the majority whip in the house, do not have the -- this is family television, to take it to a vote -- >> backbone. >> backbone, thank you. >> close. >> close. >> anatomically speaking. >> anatomically speaking.if they get thrown out, they get thrown out. it is a big story if they get thrown out. at some point, you have to have the courage of your convictions be governing. you are sent to washington to govern, not to not govern. , it is interesting. speaks rule that nina to, which is that you need a majority of republicans support

to bring anything to the floor had operated when ronald reagan was the president with the democrats controlling the house, we never would have gotten to a vote on ronald reagan's budget. it is obvious there are both there to pass this budget right now with democrats and republicans voting for it, but is it heading off the cliff? >> the so-called rule is a self- imposed rule i republicans themselves, and john boehner is the one observing that rule. he ought not to do that, but he is in an awful position. he has had week after week, day after day, acknowledging, that the president has to negotiate with them, but he cannot negotiate with his own caucus. how does the president said down with john boehner and negotiate anything one whenever john boehner try to negotiate may not stick? charles said rightly if the republicans were smart, and i think i am quoting you correctly, if the republicans are smart they would pass a

continuing resolution. what does that say about the house republicans? maybe they are not so smart because when john boehner came to them with the suggestion, let's ta our fight to the debt ceiling, they did not do it. they still want to fight over the closing of the permit and this budget over this continuing resolution. it is silly. >> there are a couple of things you could attack -- attached to a continuing resolution that the senate would approve -- the exemption of members of congress and their staff from obamacare. if you put that in the cr, it is impossible, particular for a democratic senator in a red state to vote against that because it looks and it is extremely unfair. another possible thing, and it is riskier, is to have a one- year delay in the individual mandate because it looks unfair, if you're a big business, you get a delay, if you're an individual, you do not, but that is dicier. you pick your targets carefully.

if you have the overwhelming majority of americans with you, you will win the showdown, but if you don't, and on repealing obamacare, you do not, you're going to lose. >> that is a got you a amendment, that is not talking about the problem. >> the problem for the red state senators is they have this vote in their dna. they voted for obamacare. they cannot run from it, so a tweak here or there will not make a difference on the campaign trail. they have to defend the bigger vote. i do not know if you have a few small tweaks that are added into the cr that the voters are going to recognize such a small distinction. they will have to defend the vote out there and they already are. >> all you need is a 32nd advertisement saying he wants to exempt himself and his staff, and he gets a subsidy, which is

illegal under obamacare, and you do not. >> they could run that right now. >> that is right. >> looking ahead, it does seem to be the smart thing for obama to do, if he is looking ahead to the default, to the threatening, is to clearly endorse simpson- bowls as his negotiating point area >> -- negotiating point. >> if we get through this crisis, we look at the debt ceiling fight, which is big- time, jeanne, and we are talking the 17th of october, and the possible shutdown of the entire federal operation. politics, reality? a default on all of our debt, which would hit economic standing throughout the world. it would be a major event that has never happened before. economists are already warning the hill again about the repercussions that they feel. it is not a very good beginning because john boehner had a plan

where he had a bill that would lift the debt ceiling, and they put everything on there -- the total christmas tree, every little present the republicans wished they could pass if they ran orld, the attached to this, and he could not pass that. this is really not a great beginning. we will see. stuff on this. the president says he is not going to negotiate, but the bottom line is they have to work together. the president has to give republican something to vote for, and the public wants him to negotiate and past presidents have. >> that is why i said it seems to me the smart thing to do would be to put his position as simpson-bowles, and it has painful things for democrats in it, but there is a certain amount of delusion around the hill. you hear some republicans handed is not need to be a default. you could pay, what the

democrats call, pay the chinese first -- you could pay off your interest rate first. well, then you can not social security and veterans benefits. i mean, you are kidding yourself if you think you could not default. >> charles, are we looking at a potential default? >> no, i do not think it would happen. i do not think it is ever going to happen. position that is untenable. americans wanted to negotiate, they're willing to risk a credit default in order to reduce spending. >> but they do not know what that means. >> whatever it means, it is public opinion. four-to-one a against the republicans in shutting down the government. governmentf the shuts down, it will be all on the shoulders of republicans. if you have a default, the economy will sort of shake and

shiver for a while, and everything will slow down, and in the end, a few months or down the road, whatever loss of economic growth that we get will be on the shoulders of the president. he knows that. he is responsible in a general way. i think he has every incentive, and in the end he will negotiate and they're likely to get a deal. >> colby, in 2011, they came close to a default. the best estimate from independent economists is that there were higher interest rate payment because of that. it is a real hit to the economy. >> we are in the fifth year of the republicans attempt to bring down this president. this will be their next latest effort to do that through the debt ceiling. the president is absolutely right to hold firm on this, take it up to the 11th hour, and if

they go over the cliff, he can make the case that it is the republicans who have force this to happen. jeanne is right. they put everything on that debt ceiling bill that they could that would be distasteful to this president. they knew that. and is all about politics the kind of dark politics the republicans have been practice in for the last five years. >>, on now, dark politics here come on, darke -- politics. obama decided he had control of the house and got through health reform without anything from the republican side. if he had done tort reform, he would have gotten a lot of publicans. he decided it would be his way. as a result, a major change is done with a straight party vote. timeout. that is it. the president seeks to rally support for obamacare next.

>> i am really anxious for the markets to be up and running so people see what prices are, what options they have, and what we find is they are thrilled with the choice and the competition. policies for under $100, less than your cell phone bill, and i think that is very good news for millions of americans that do not have health security right now. >> at his health and human services secretary kathleen sebelius speaking up on behalf of the affordable care act. the president spoke thursday in suburban maryland what he said the biggest fear for the republicans is not that the affordable care act would fail, but succeed. the administration released a summary of premiums in 36 states highlighting costs were below initial estimates. enrollment opens thursday. how when well they will be able to tell if obamacare is a success or failure --jeanne -- jeanne cummings? >> we will know quickly. in the first few months, the

administration has set a goal to make sure they get a couple million young people signed up. that is not saying only young people will sign up. lots of others will sign up, what it is important healthy people get in there to balance out the costs. by the time we get around to january, when the entire system for individuals actually goes open for business, we will know if they have signed up. what we will also know -- early enrollors -- is whether america, which is the offshoot of the president's grassroots campaign machine, if they are having any success. they are working very hard out there. you have a history of getting people to sign up for things to read in that case -- things. in that case, it was a voting. in this case it is health care, but on policy they have not been effective, so we will see if they can pull this off. way, will know in one colby king, if it is called

obamacare one year from now. it'll be called a government program if it is not successful. a difficult be rollout. a lot of the companies are taking advantage of this law to make changes on their own, so the industry itself is getting really disrupted by this, not necessarily in a bad way, but it will go through a change. i do not think we can make a judgment about this program -- a serious judgment, six months from now. i think it will take longer, just like it did with social security and medicare. a lot of changes as this program takes effect over time. the other day, they said the district of columbia, for example, would not be able to launch the program on time because of technical glitches, and it so happens they will be able to do it. every thing they have promised, they will be able to do on october 1, but the technical glitches will be worked out later. >> i think it will be very hard

to get people -- the most vulnerable people who will really benefit from this -- the 7 million people who, for example, probably could get this all but free if you include subsidies, to get the word to them. in houston we have a piece on npr saying enroll america had seven people working at cvs's and drug stores to get information to people, and they really did not know anything about it. this will be very difficult. >> charles, your own sense of when we will have a -- is right. jeanne we have to look at the enrollment numbers. the whole hidden agenda is not even hidden, get the healthy young to subsidize older people. if you get enough of them in the program, the program will work, and the question is will you get them westmark nobody knows. we will see.

there is so much deceptive advertising here. kathleen sebelius talks about how happy people are going to be. there are going to be three levels of protection, the gold, the silver, and the bronze, and the bronze is the most bare- bones. yes, the premiums on the bronze extremely low, but the deductible is $6,000, so if you are someone that wants catastrophic insurance, you will have to pay the first $6,000 if you are hit with an illness out of pocket, and that is catastrophic if you are ordinary income. then i would say this is reported on foxx, but not other places, when you go into the weeds, there are huge problems, and are they going to be worked out? i do not know. this is so much more confiscated and medicare, which is used as an example -- complicated than medicare, which is used as an example. it has so many moving parts, and it is likely to be a train wreck, as senator max baucus has

said. >> one thing we will see is that it will be very uneven. that is for sure. texas has resisted any involvement. people are unaware. go into a state like colorado, where the governor has totally engaged him he is going to be using all kinds of ways to spread the word and get young people. he is reaching out through social media, bars, and is even talking about using amber alert's. >> the medicare act has been amended over and over again, and that will have to continue because it needs to be continued . here is the problem obama has, getting healthy people enrolled -- you have a lobbying group built up to discourage people from signing up. >> you do not need a lobbying group. a young person, economically, it makes no sense at all to actually sign up for that is why they are going to try to impose a fine. koch brothers.

>> eight is a conservative idea to have everyone enrolled and penalize those that do not. it is out of a conservative think tank. exit at the medic cease-fire between the united states and iran. a short,o have bilateral discussion with secretary john kerry after the meeting in which we stressed the need to continue the discussions and give it the political impetus that it requires. i am satisfied with this first step, and now we have to see whether we can match our positive words with serious deeds so that we can move forward. >> that was the iranian foreign minister commenting on his meeting thursday at the united nations with u.s. secretary of state john kerry. it is the highest level contact between the two countries since 1979. during his visit to the u.n.,

and ran's -- iran's new president wished america well and he does things itself from his predecessor, ahmadinejad, by condemning the holocaust as a crime. his is cause for real hope, nina ? >> charles does not think so, but i think it nixon could have a warming relationship with china and the united states, it is cause for hope. it reiterated what i said last week, and what ronald reagan said, you have to trust but verify. i think there is hope. >> why they are talking to the u.s. now, why they are taking the tone, very simple -- the sanctions are working. i am glad to hear the critics that say sanctions are not working have publicly acknowledged that the sanctions are driving and ran to the table to have the time -- iran to the table to have the conversations.

forget the bells and whistles. he is a hardliner, a fundamentalist, but the fundamental economic problems in iran are causing this. >> aretions work, -- sanctions working, charles? >> it has had zero effect on their nuclear programs, and rohani distinguish itself by reiterating the inalienable to enrich uranium. they are enriching uranium as we speak. three kilograms away from what they need. this is an issue of purchasing time, and it is exactly what we are giving them. three-aid they wanted a to-six month window. >> you would say it also if you were about three-to-six months

a bomb.m having and one correction, he did not condemn the holocaust. the cnn interview was mistranslated. i know everybody loves to hope for that, but he did not even come close. but in fairness, "the wall street journal does quote -- parks in fairness, "the wall street journal does quote -- the wall street journal" quoted the most militant -- >> you are wrong about this. --i'm not going to protect pretend to be an expert on this, but i'm curious about something -- can we find out more in our reporting over the course of time about what is motivating the iranian leadership? i would really like to know how bad is it in terms of the sanctions, and the condition of

their people. is that the motivating factor? is it that they looked at syria and other countries and said could we be next? what is motivating them because that motivational help us decide if they are sincere. >> jeanne cummings, a slugfest for virginia governor. >> the result has been a sharp increase in the most personal of attacks, and they become deceitful and false by the press. boxing you see the ads, overwhelmingly negative, unbelievably false. coaching elli,nd and democrat terry mcauliffe exchanged peasantry's. nine times in a row, virginia voters have elected a government -- governor of the opposite party of the sitting resident in the white house. can terry mcauliffe break that streak? cinelli might help him do that. he has a difficult record to run

on. there is a tremendous gender gap that has not been closed. he lost the chamber of commerce endorsement to terry mcauliffe. he is just not the person for this time. other republicans around the country have to watch this kind of thing in a state that is not solidly red. .> jeanne cummings >> i do think the gender gap is important. in northern virginia, it is always critical in the governor races, and what we have seen in our reporting in terms of donors and endorsement is that the business community has placed its bet with terry mcauliffe. that is unusual in virginia. groups, theess realtors, for instance, endorsed terry mcauliffe, and republicans in other places. that is tipping things some to terry mcauliffe, and it is all

about turnout, and ken cuccinelli's people are passionate. >> virginia has voted more like the national outcome in the last two elections than any of the other 50 states. is this significant? >> i am not sure this will be determined on policy because there is a heavy shadowing of technical issues. when terry mcauliffe looks slightly cleaner, you know you have a bizarre election. i think it is individualized and idiosyncratic. >> the guy kicking himself is the lieutenant governor who is a genuine republican centrist and could have attracted a lot of democratic votes. >> when our side wins, it is a national trend, when the other side wins, it is all because of local issues. >> exactly. [laughter] >> that is it for this week. tune in next week for "inside washington." ♪

♪ x welcome from brussels. in the next half-hour we will be looking at what is going on in the lives of europeans. here's a selection of what we have for you today. germany are wondering what to expect from angela merkel. albania church frescoes are being destroyed. france, why the famous lavender is at risk. is at risk.