>> good morning to you. it is sunday, december 3rd. i'm ali velshi. we begin this morning with the collision course that could determine not only the outcome of the next presidential election, but the future of american democracy. it's happening bit by bit every day.

it's easy to overlook, but donald trump is trying to run out the clock, the slow walk, the many cases against him, enough to win the republican primary before he can be convicted or maybe even tried of a crime. given a recent spate of legal losses for the twice impeached ex president, we're now entering a crucial time in this high stakes test of wills. last week, in appeals court, reinstated the gag order against him in new york. judges in d.c. also rejected his broad claims of presidenti immunity, which prompted tanya chutkan, the jue and jack smith's federal write, quote, defendants for your service as commander-in-chief did not bestow on him the divine right of kings to evade criminal accountability that governs his fellow citizens, and quote. those legal losses haven't curbed his legal team's efforts to escape or at least postpone his prosecutions. at a hearing on friday, his lawyers went as far as to argue a trial in the fulton county,

georgia case this year, would constitute election interference. >> can you imagine the notion of the republican nominee for president not being able to campaign for the presidency because he is in some form or fancy in a courtroom? that would be the most effective election interference in the history of the united states. >> now, let fulton county judge scott mcafee make the final judgment on that. these recent rulings and arguments are reminders that there are still a number of complex issues to resolve as america, for the first time, considers the prosecution of a former president who is also running to return to the white house. it's been looming large over the republican presidential primary since the very beginning. in these recent rulings, the vulnerabilities that they expose are perhaps welcome news for the remaining candidates who are currently trailing the former president by a country

mile. it's been a particularly good week for the former south carolina governor and trump's former united nations ambassador, nikki haley, who appears to be coalcing the support of the anti trump faction of the gop. she recently received a coveted endorsement from the coat tworks powerful and influential conservative super pac and a boost of support from jamie dimon, this is the ego of jpmorgan chase. recent polls have also shown her pulling ahead of ron desantis in the early primary state of new hampshire and south carolina. she's been on the rise since the first primary debate, she has some pretty good momentum with only six weeks left before the first contest of 2024. the race she appears to be winning as the race for second place. so, it's worth asking, is it too late for her or any republican to catch up to donald trump? there is the belief that the republican party's presidential nominee could be contingent on how trump handles his criminal cases or how they unfold in the

months ahead and why second place could matter. if we take a look at the calendar of what's ahead, time is running out. judge arthur engoron heads schedule closing arguments for trump's civil fraud trial in new york for january the 11th. donald trump is expected to testify that day. on january the 15th, republicans in iowa will caucus for their favorite candidate and kick off the 2024 election cycle. a new trump related trial will begin that day two for the second civil suit that's brought by the writer and columnist, e. jean carroll. on january the 23rd, new hampshire is going to hold its primaries and republicans will hold nominating contests and two states in february. nevada on february 8th, south carolina on, i'm sorry, nevada, february 8th, south carolina on february 24th. if any republican hopes to seriously give donald trump a run for his money, better happen in these first two

months of the year because republicans in idaho, michigan, and missouri, will caucus on march 23rd. north dakota republicans will do the same thing two days later on march 4th, which is the same day that the federal interference trial, the first criminal trial of a former american president in history is scheduled to begin. wait, there is more. the next day, march 5th, the super tuesday, 16 states will hold primaries and caucuses on that day. on march 25th, the ne hush money trial begins, th the allman bragg trial in manhattan. as nbc news first points out, the results for super tuesday come in, quote, republicans will be allocated nearly half, 47% other delegates from the contest in the 2024 gop presidential race. on march 25th, trump's second criminal trial, the hush money case in manhattan, it is going to begin. so, if this calendar holds, if donald trump remains dominant over the gop field, as he

appears to be right now, the race for the nomination may be over before opening arguments even begin for any of his criminal trials. joining me now is paul butler, former federal prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst who along with, by the way, also with us jennifer reuben, an opinion writer for the washington post and an msnbc political analyst, the author of the book, resistance, how women save democracy from donald trump. welcome to both of you. thank you for being with us this morning. trump. jen reuben, this makes us wonder whether the only way to deal with donald trump and prevent him from becoming the next president of the united states, short of people voting that way in november, is some sort of a political answer, is something that the republican party does as opposed to something the courts do. what is your sense of it? >> well, they're headed, just as you said, the map that you pointed out is critical. he could well wrap up the nomination and then be

convicted. the most likely scenario is that he will accumulate a majority of the delegates either on super tuesday or shortly thereafter when that criminal case begins. jack smith has an excellent case, the decision that you reference from judge chutkan, it kind of puts him on a guide path to that trial. i don't think the d.c. circuit is gonna overturn. they, as you noted, in a parallel civil case, rejected this immunity defense. i don't think the supreme court is gonna get involved at this stage. that means he is going on trial in march, could be convicted by or even after the gop convention in the summer. and then, what did they do? do they have a backup plan, and they have a plan b? i don't think so. the person who chooses vp may become very important, they may need to think about some mechanism by which the candidates or perhaps the body at the convention kind of do a

redo in the convention. so, we're really headed for uncharted territory here. >> paul, let's talk with a couple things that jen just mentioned. first of all, she says, the supreme court will get involved, is 2023, i never know about the supreme court. on the other hand, we do know that the republican primaries and caucuses that i laid out our dates that are pretty much set in stone. the court dates are not dates that are set in stone. there is some discussion amongst legal circles that there may be valid reasons why tanya chutkan may grant the trump team some delays in the federal trial, the jack smith trial, that may not actually get started first, we may actually be into july or august and the georgia trial before we get to that. what are your thoughts on that? >> i think of the four trials, the one that's most likely to go first remains the federal election interference case in the district of columbia with judge chutkan. judge chutkan wrote a scholarly,

learned opinion this week that was written in order to withstand the inevitable appeal. so, this was about the issue of immunity. trump is making this extreme claim that he can't be sued in civil court or prosecuted in criminal court for anything that he did when he was president. two different courts shut that argument down this week. i agree with jennifer, i don't think the supreme court is likely to take up that case. what i'm more concerned about though is this upcoming opinion about the gag order. i think there's a good chance that if trump loses that, the supreme court would take up that case. the supreme court is on its own schedule. it's possible that if that couldn't be resolved until after, before the election, even the federal election interference case would happen

after the election. >> you call judge -- scholarly and learned. it's also remarkably accessible. people know impartial to reading these things, it's a very easy read, i would recommend it to my readers, my viewers that you go out there and you read this, it's 48 pages, it lays it out very very clearly that being president is not to get out of jail free card for after your president. if you committed crimes wall president or not while president, you are the same as everybody else. jen, last week you wrote a title, it's nikki haley or bust for the gop. i want to read a little b from it. the question is whether, i managed to topple trump, she would break with the maga cult and personality, declined to bo and scrape before russian president vladimirut, declined to weaponize justice department against h enemies, and return to some version of normal republican politics, all indications suggest that, yes, she would refrain from subverting constitutional democracy if she somehow won the nomination went on to win the presidency, and

quote. i had stewart stevens on yesterday who said otherwise. he said, she's not, she does not seem prepared to fully stand up to that trump cult of people who believe that the 2020 election was overturned. are you fairly certain that you think should go back to the normal nikki haley that we knew as governor south carolina? as gover>> well, we can speculal we like, the proof would be in the pudding. here's the problem that she would have. even if she personally doesn't think that trump lost the election, she doesn't believe in a lot of this hooey, consider the party that she would be riding into the white house on. if she wins the white house, there's a good chance that the house and the senate would be republican hands as well. she will be under tremendous pressure. so, perhaps the real question is not whether she would break with the maga republicans if she had -- but what that dynamic would be between house republicans, the mike johnson's of the world,

the jim jordans of the world, and nikki haley, who am i, should she have her true others, want to return to some normal politics. so, i think it's an open question, obviously. i tend to think of those left in the race. she is probably the only one that could possibly beat him. rhonda sentence has essentially crashed and burned. there is no one else who is rising up. so, it's either gonna be donald trump, nikki haley, or, you know, they're gonna have chaos at the convention. buckle up. >> when you talked about who is vice presidential candidate, vivek ramaswamy is really running for the job. if he becomes the vice president candidate, donald trump goes to jail, we might be in a different set of pickles. let's talk about georgia, scott mcafee, the judge there, trump's attorney who made the argument that any kind of trial, if trump is campaigning to be the president of the united

states, this trial would, at best start in july or or august, maybe later. trump might be the nominee, or might have enough votes to be the nominee. any trial would constitute election interference, which means he couldn't have a trial until after the election. if he were to win as president, he can have a toronto after he was president, putting a start date of the possible trial in georgia at january 20th 2029. don't know what judge mcafee is going to do about that. didn't sound like he was taking the bait on that argument. >> so, it's certainly not the case that this trial would count as election interference if in fact it happens before the election. what is probably correct is that if donald trump wins the presidency and the trial in fulton county hasn't started, it wouldn't start until after he left office. i think the judge knows this and the judge is trying to rush this trial. we know that four of the 19

defendants have pled guilty. it's quite likely that many many others will also plead guilty. fani willis has suggested she won't accept a plea bargain for mark meadows, rudy giuliani, or the former president. we could be looking at just -- in the trial, and i think it's quite possible that that could happen before the election with a concerted effort. really interesting the judge mcafee suggested that fani willis and jack smith -- especially on discovery issues. right now, there is a court order preventing the lawyers in the federal election interference case from sharing documents with anybody else. judge chutkan might allow that sharing, which would allow both federal election interference and fani willis's trial to proceed more quickly. >> i appreciate both of you this morning. thank you for being with us. paul butler is a former federal prosecutor and -- jennifer reuben is an opinion writer at the washington post and an msnbc political analyst. coming up, we're looking at the

war between israel and hamas from all different angles. first, we'll get an update on the ground since the temporary truce broke down on friday. deaths are topping 700, according to hamas. we'll look at what comes next for israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu and the longtime immunity between israel and the united states facing its toughest test yet. >> as israel defends itself, it matters how. the united states is unequivocal, the international humanitarian law must be respected. too many innocent palestinians have been killed. have been killed earning on that éclair. don't touch it, don't touch it yet. let me get the big one. nope. -this one? -nope. -this one? -yes. no. what? the big one. they're all the same size. wait! lemme get 'em all. i'm gonna get 'em all! earn big with chase freedom unlimited. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours.

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and that he took care of all of the internet connected devices in the home. i told her, “i'm here to take care of you.” connecting with kim... made me reconnect with my mom. it's very important to keep loved ones close. we know that creating memories with loved ones brings so much joy to your life. a family trip to the team usa training facility. i don't know how to thank you. >> now, to the deadly war i'm here to thank you. overseas, where israel has intensified its attacks on gaza overnight and this morning. according to hamas, more than 700 people have been killed in the gaza strip over the last 24 hours and more than 1.5 million people have now been displaced since the start of the war on

october 7th. nbc's not able to verify these numbers. according to the united nations, two strikes yesterday resulted in an at least 160 casualties, including an attack on a six story building in the refugee camp in gaza. according to the white house, there are no active talks to implement additional pauses in fighting or for the release of hostages. here is what john kirby, a spokesperson for the nsc, told my colleague, kristen welker this morning, on meet the press. >> well, there are no official negotiations going on right now, kristen. that's because hamas failed to come up with yet another list of women and children that could be released. we know they're holding additional women and children, not combat, snot female idf soldiers, in a sense civilians, women and children they have that they couldn't put on the list and turn that in. unfortunately, the negotiations have stopped. that said, what hasn't stopped is our own involvement trying to get those back on track and trying to discuss with those partners and all those

interlocutors to see if we can't get it back in place. >> meanwhile, as the humanitarian crisis worsens, some relief has arrived in gaza. it is not enough. the palestinian red crescent says 100 aid trucks were able to enter the enclave through the rafah crossing with egypt, containing water, food, medicine, and other supplies. for more on this, i'm joined by raf sanchez and tel aviv. the situation very kinetic on the ground overnight, our time during the day, your time, i've been keeping track of. it there's a lot happening in gaza. there are things happening on the northern border with israel. ever since the breakdown of the truce, we are back into what looks like full scale war. >> yeah, it definitely feels like full scale war for palestinian civilians in gaza, ali. people in the south are telling us they feel like they have nowhere left to run too. they were told weeks ago by israel, if they fled their homes, they went to southern cities like khan younis, they would be safe. now, they're being told by israel they need to get out of

parts of khan yunis because the israelis are planning to attack their. this confusion captured in just one story that our team heard at the hospital in khan yunis yesterday. this is a hospital that the world health organization is saying is three times over capacity right now. it is one of the only functioning hospitals in the gaza strip right now. our team meta mother called fatima, she took her children from the refugee camp, which is all the way up in the northern end of gaza, she brought them to the south. she told us that her son, mohammed, was killed in israeli airstrike in the south down there. it just goes to show, a lot of palestinian civilians feeling like nowhere is safe. there are reports coming out a southern gaza that the israeli military is now operating on the ground around ten eunice, we asked the israeli military about that, they're not confirming that at this stage. you heard from vice president kamala harris that the u.s. feels there are too many

innocent palestinians dying. one of the innovations since the fighting resumed, the israeli military has published this map of gaza, it divides gaza into 2400 zones, ali, they say they're using this map to tell palestinians we need to get out of this area, it's no longer safe. i can tell you we spent much of the morning here trying to understand how this map works. we have fast internet here, and the safety of tel aviv. we're struggling to understand, you can only imagine for civilians inside gaza, try to make life and death decisions about where to move their children to keep them safe, how confusing it is for them with very limited internet, very limited electricity. i've been texting this morning with the audio spokesperson unit, it's not totally clear to me they understand how this map works either. everybody is hanging on these tweets and arabic from one particular israeli military spokesman who is giving the

numbers of which blocked people are supposed to get out to. that is the best chance palestinian civilians have right now to try to get their kids out of harm's way. meanwhile, here in israel, last night, there was a major rally where the crowds heard testimony from some of those hostages who were released during the week. one woman saying she had to pinch her cell phone she was down in the tunnels to try to wake up from the nightmare she was living through. ali? >> right, thanks as always for your excellent reporting. nbc's raf sanchez for us in tel aviv. coming up next, months before this brutal war, israel was facing an entirely different nationwide challenge, there were widespread protests today prime minister benjamin netanyahu's moves to boost his own power and limit the power of the nation's courts. several israeli officials broke with him over those efforts. i'll speak with one of them after the break about his former boss's role in the country's current unfolding war. t unfoldin war. not with this. when stains and odors pile up, it's got to be tide.

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israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, we move the country's defense minister from his post for criticizing the pace of the government's contentious plan to overhaul the justice system. it is a move that sparked an uproar from israelis, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets. universities closed their doors, union leaders began discussing strikes. netanyahu's decision to silence him followed a string of other anti democratic actions and was the last straw for many of his supporters or even people who worked for him in his administration. the outrage stretched all the way to new york city where israel's consul general resigned from his own post to join the fight for more equal israel and a direct result of the firing. in his resignation later, is a miro, my decision to resign should not be seen as a rejection of israel or its people. on the contrary, i am taking

this step because of my deep love for my country as a proud israeli citizen, i believe it is my duty to ensure that israel remains a beacon of democracy and freedom in the world. and quote. took 15 days for netanyahu to reverse his firing, restoring his role as defense minister. joining me now is the aforementioned a staff as a mayor, former consul general of israel in new york, former member of israel's legislature, the knesset, israel's former minister of tourism. good to see you. thank you for being with us. >> thank you for having me. >> boy, the world has changed since march. >> sadly. >> you are no particular fan of benjamin netanyahu, but at the moment, your countries at war. i don't know how to describe it. our hearts hardened or have israelis been able to unify around something? it's very hard for his release to unify around benjamin netanyahu, but now you're at war. >> i think the country is as

unified as it's ever been, for tragic reasons. i think october 7th was a moment of clarity for many people. it ended long going debates about security priorities and about possibilities, about the motivations of people in gaza or in the west bank, around as. it was also a moment of clarity for a merrick can -- those very divided politically, has reunited most of unsupportive israel because it's very hard to not defend israel after october 7th and it's need to make sure in the basis that people are secure. >> that's not a complicated thing to get one's head around, right? the right of israelis for safety and peace. >> i think that's what's happening right now politically in the united states, the discourse has shifted from criticism towards a government's policy, which is a legitimate thing to white you see in the other generations.

>> you're right, you're right. you and i have had this discussion before. there are some who a long time ago that said criticism of israel's government is equivalent of antisemitism. you didn't, you're actually a guy who is critical of the israeli government, you love jews, and your country. you're right, that's complicated, it shouldn't be complicated for the human brain to say palestinian self-determination and israel and israel's right to be in peace are both achievable in 2023. >> achievable or desirable? >> desirable, let's start with desirable. >> desirable for sure, they've always proven their peace with everyone around us, that's why we are offered peace, how complicated it was, we took it in the second. peace with jordan, and the uae, sudan, morocco, the accords giving authority in the west bank, the disengagement of gaza in 2006.

all of these things were concessions made by israelis to try and live in peace with our neighbors. >> but this particular government or whatever you want to call it, whether netanyahu has not been a good player on that. america has not been all that engaged on it. >> this particular government, i've had my disagreements with, and i still do on many things. make no mistake, if we had a different government in power october 7th, that wouldn't have changed hamas's motivations and when we took our eyes off the defense for hours to come in, kill, rape, and do everything those documented that they did. when they said we wanted it again, just given the chance, that's not because of discover, meant that is because of their true dream to free israel from jews, to turn it all into palestinian land, that's what they've said. if they were to say, listen, let's talk, if there was a small group in gaza saying, let's talk about the day after,

how we can live alongside each other, there would be a base to a beginning of a conversation. >> funny you say that, a big group of people who don't hold any power, they're not members of anything, there is no membership in hamas. there is a big group of people in gaza, and in the west bank who don't really even think that the palestinian authorities may be working for them. they want to have that discussion. how does israel empower them? what is that look like? that is something that, in fact, benjamin netanyahu is specifically responsible for, undermining of a partner. >> it's very very hard given what's happened to convince the israeli people that it's justified to empower them. i'll tell you why, by the way, it's even hard to convince people that group is fineable. the last poll done by the university, an arab university, showed 70% of palestinians in gaza support -- 70%. most of the people kidnapped people into gaza were not hop

-- hamas operators. when you see hostages released, when you see in the street, these are videos they distribute, crowds the palestinians cheering for little ladies and wheelchairs, it's very hard to look at that, to hear no other voice come out of gaza and say, we have -- >> where the voice come from? >> when i was 15, i was a member of a group, i was 15, i was a member of a group called the international center for peace in the middle east, it is palestinians, israeli youth, settlers, people from tel aviv, gaza, west bank. we did a photography course together, we had an exhibition. you know the exhibition opened? it was 1995. it opened in gaza. my family, we drove into gaza, you could think they would be piece out of that. we disengaged in 2006. it has been 17 years, the world has sent endless amounts of money into gaza. it has proven now that that money was never used by anyone to try and build a functioning society in gaza, but used for an underground terrorist system to shoot rockets that my daughter.

>> i totally get it. >> you know this, but you're also a guy who thinks about the fact that there has to be a day after. >> yeah. >> you have met people who live in gaza, who live in the west bank who are entrepreneurs, they want a better life, you can imagine being a minister luckier minister of tourism, a minister of something, a may or something, they exist. >> why are we hearing them? >> you tell me. >> i don't think they exist in the numbers you do, i think that if they do, they're afraid to speak because of hamas. i think that if they're afraid to speak because of hamas, they agree that hamas needs to go. >> what happens after that? do you think the world has gone to that point? >> if it's gone, by the way, my opinion is stronger, i think hamas needs to go, i think his byline is to go, and i think there needs to be a change in government in the palestinian authority. the last person we handed over gaza to was -- who then lost it to hamas. we couldn't do that same mistake twice. >> a guy sitting in an israeli jail right now -- a lot of people say, get a move, j.lo renounced violence, he

might be the leader. >> we need to find a leader. -- as a leader, and if he's ever chosen as a leader, proves himself to be nelson mandela, we dream for that. the biggest tragedy in palestinian history is weak leadership that's never been able to do something positive or constructive towards israel. i can say this as an israeli, we've had amazing crime ministers and horrible crime ministers. great governments and horrible governments. we've had opportunities in which we said, let's try. but the palestinians have never had a courageous arab muslim leader that said, you know what, i'm willing to make concessions, i'm willing to speak against part of my people. what we found an behzad that said to the entire muslim world, i'm making normalization with israel, broke way to the abraham accords. we didn't have that with palestinians. >> there were no palestinians in the abraham accords. you know that. >> of course i do, but give me a name that could've been there.

>> that's the problem of the israeli government right now. >> no, the problem, they used to be the problem of the israeli government. after october 7th, the vast majority of israelis think that that's the problem with the palestinian people. if they don't take a bit of responsibility and generate leadership that we can work with, it can't continue to be our problem after the atrocities of october 7th. r the reality as my wife two months ago looked at places and our host that she needs to hide and with my daughter if terrorists come and no one comes to protect her. that is not something someone should live through in a normal -- >> totally right, as a guy who thinks about this, because your political guy, it doesn't matter how bad the situation is, where like firefighters, you show up at a fire, you have to fight it no matter how big it is. >> yes. >> as a diplomat, as an israeli, as a former israeli official, probably a future israeli official, the problem needs to be solved. it's not gonna be sufficient to say --

>> it needs to be solved, it's gonna take time, it can't be periodical solution just in gaza. the region needs to have a solution with the darkness against the law, a okay? that's not a matter of jews versus muslims or west versus east, it's a matter of fundamental islam that goes after everything which is liberal and the rest of us. >> that's not what the pier was? the palestinian authority wasn't? that >> the pier was not that, the second they were handed over gaza, they lost to hamas. the reason there is no election since then and and in the west bank is because -- >> i've had israeli officials sit there and say, they're undemocratic, they haven't had an election. every is really knows what would happen if there was an election. >> the majority palestinian people would vote hamas back into power. >> unless they had a better option. >> the pier was a better option, they voted it out. it was secular, peace seeking, theoretically, option. they voted hamas. in doctrines into the school books that i am a terrorist, if

you kill me, we'll go to heaven and find -- >> all right, we have to fix all of that. but as i have met from a lot of israelis, you're not allowed to talk about -- in is really publicly funded schools either, right? it depends on where you think the story started. for a lot of palestinians, it started in 1948, they call it the -- you can't learn about that in an israeli public school. israelis also have to think the palestinians are terrorists. >> you have to be sitting in front of the person that helped establish the first bilingual jewish arab school in jaffa, you learn about everything. you learn both narratives. it is important to understand both narratives, to try and coexist. make no mistake. and there is not one textbook in israel that says all the people that live in gaza want to kill you. it doesn't exist. there is not one textbook that says if you die trying to kill palestinians, you'll go to heaven. >> are there textbooks that tell you that those people are not legitimate refugees who have wright come back to israel where their homes were 1948? >> it's not the same. it's not the same because it doesn't incite violence towards

them. it's a political opinion. i might not hold it. i can fight to change. it is an opinion. it's how we write history. i can defend that opinion, by the way. i can't say why it's not exactly how you said it. but it doesn't educate these kids that what they're grown up to do is hold a gun and kill arabs. >> what is the solution look like to? >> the sort term solution has to be, by the way, i heard your former segment -- where could they go? they sent them up, they can understand the map, the reporter said. i don't know any other army in the world that calls before they come. >> except there is no internet. they don't have internet. give me an estimate as to tommy get off my block, i don't get it. >> a member of a nation, when you fought overseas -- the taliban, you didn't say, move here, move there. there were no protests here about civilian casualties. the war crime, targeted civilian casualties, it's a war crime. using them as human shields,

that's a war crime for sure. then, you have no other option. that's the point we're at right now. if hamas has to put down their guns and say, we surrender, there would be no civilian casualties anymore. we're not looking to fight inside, we're looking to make sure people can live around gaza. we're trying to do that with a minimum number of casualties. we're at a pivotal point in jewish life where there is a broad understanding that if we don't do it, no matter what, at any price, we won't be able to continue living their. >> asaf, it's always a pleasure speaking to you, may we speak many more times, because we must, we need a solution to that problem. >> amen to that. i want to tell you more things, a vast majority of israelis dream of peace. all we've ever wanted is to be left alone, to be able to live in a very small piece of land that the united nations said we can live in, that i am ninth generation to, that we've been in for thousands of years.

if people leave us alone, we would be hugging everyone. >> there are some provocations, you would agree, right? the governor has been involved. >> i agree with everything. i'm saying, at the base of the majority people, israel is a democracy. i agree with people, i don't, extreme right, extreme, left everything, it's vibrant, it's transparent, we have national press, others don't. it's a big discourse in israel. if you ask the majority of israelis, the majority of governments they've chosen, it's not the people burning all of trees, it's the majority of people that made great concessions. >> the few people doing those things are problematic. they are problematic. we'll continue the discussion. thank you for being here, my friend. >> thank you. >> the former consul general of israel and new york. all right, coming, up the biden administration is signaling a shifting approach to the united states relationship with israel. i wanna talk about what's behind that rift and was likely to come next with former middle east peace negotiator for both democratic and republican administrations when we come back. lica administrations when we come back >> running this kitchen.

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war in gaza, a weeklong pause in fighting has collapsed, bringing back with it more devastation and destruction. frustration with the israeli prime minister's leadership appears to be reaching a breaking point. a noticeable rift has emerged between the united states and israel, marking unprecedented tension between the two longtime allies. despite the biden administration's claim of fully backing israel's war against hamas, netanyahu has publicly floated u.s. concerns about its conduct in the war, specially as it relates to civilian casualties. you're not liebermann, cofounder of the jewish american advocacy group, if not now, criticize this dynamic on social media this week, calling for accountability in the u.s. israel relations. quote, look, joe biden, netanyahu is putting in your face. it doesn't take you seriously. are you going to keep hugging him in public or are you going to finally end the blank check and hold him accountable for his words and actions? well, perhaps in response to

the mounting criticism not just from if not now, but from prominent progressives within democratic party, the biden administration has begun signaling a shift in its approach. or senior state department official told reuts on friday that washington will begin imposing visa bans on violent israeli settlers. daily settler tax cans palestinians in the west bank, according to the united nations, have more than doubled since october 7th. meanwhile, during a meeting with egypt's leader on saturday, vice president kamala harris issued the strongest statement yet on the biden administration stands on the need to preserve the territorial integrity of palestinian land. the stern remarks follow reports this week that israel intends on creating a buffer zone on the palestinian side of gaza, whichany critics interpret as a land grab. white house released a statemenlar saturday saying, quote, the viceresident reiterated that under no circumstances will the united states permit the forest relocation of palestinians from gaza where the west bank.

the besieged meant of gaza or the redrawing of the borders of gaza. joining me now is aaron david miller, former senior adviser for arab-israeli negotiations at the state department. a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. erin, good to see you again. thank you for being with me. we have been glued to you and your analysis for the last two months because of how much you know about this. i just had a remarkable conversation with a soft sahmir, who you know, who is actually hoping to be in the conversation with you. i want to pick up from where we were with the mayor. we have a current situation that's very bad. we have a future situation that we hope will be less bad. maybe even be hopeful for the palestinians. where are you now on where you think we stand and where we're going? >> we're in a long dark tunnel. my own sort of default position, ali, is gonna get worse before it gets much worse.

at the same time, i understand that every breakthrough, without exception, is from -- even though the process did not succeed. they were all proceeded by war, terror, or insurgency. the reality is that in conflict, the middle east pieces are a scramble. the pain is evident. what is critically missing, what is gonna be extremely difficult now is to marry that pain with the prospects of gain. that requires an external mediator who understands but when change happens, it's usually driven by the marriage of human agency, in this case, leadership, with changing circumstances. i think that this crisis will, in fact, create a new reality. i think the ingredients to put together when you and i would

consider to be a conflict to a solution, those ingredients are not now present. there are only three. you give me these three, give me these three, give me two of these three, i will give you more than a reasonable chance that israelis and palestinians could come to a conflict ending solution. number one, you need leaders on each side that are masters of their political houses, not prisoners of their ideologies. we do not have -- number two, you need a sense of ownership. israelis and palestinians have to care about this negotiation, owner, and protect it, because it's in their interest. you've heard the old -- nobody washed a rental car. people don't wash rental cars because they care only about what they own. finally, you need a third party, a mediator that is prepared to be reassuring and supply ample amounts of money, but also, in critical moments, that mediator

needs to apply ample amounts of vinegar. give me the first two and i'll give you a fighting chance. without those first two, you and i will be having this conversation year after year. >> yes, we have been having it for a long time, we continue to. i don't know where to start because only a couple minutes. i don't know if i want to talk about whether leaders can emerge or, number three, whether the u.s. can be the mediator needs to be. you've been involved in these negotiations for decades. you have said that often the u.s. was not the first broker. now, we are hearing about a united states who said, we can be israel strongest ally and at the same time have a rule that says that we want fairness, and equity, in the way this moves forward. let's take that second topic, do you think the u.s. can get to the right place on this? there are many americans who think that we're not in the right place on this. i just talked to us off the mayor who said he felt americans are in the right

place for the first time in a long time. fully united behind israel. where are we? where should we be? >> look, let's be clear, you have two clocks, they're ticking at different speeds. the israeli operation clock, the destruction of hamas, it's taking very slowly. they think they'll need months. the american political clock, joe biden's clock, as you pointed out, it's taking much faster, these clocks are increasingly out of sync. the real question, can united states of israel come to terms on the key issues minimizing civilian deaths and gaza, creating space for humanitarian assistance or not. are we looking at a potential crisis in the u.s. israeli relationship? i can answer that question. it just seems to me, having israel's back for the last 58 days, extraordinary because of who dry who biden is and the savagery of october 7th. that puts the administration in a very strong position to apply leverage and to talk to the

israelis about the risks to them of operating in ways that you kill one palestinian, you end up generating three or four that will hate you forever. that's a smart strategy in terms of avoiding civilian casualties as a companion piece, frankly, to fighting counterterrorism and insurgency. and then, of course, the question of the day after, where the israeli government for political reasons is not willing at this stage to engage. i think tougher times are coming in the u.s. israeli relationship, ali. you have 2024 looming where some policy is likely to be increasingly in conflict with what the administration may well regarded as sound politics. that's the problem with respect to timing in 2024. >> erin, i suppose that means you and i will have lots more opportunities for conversations. i always welcome -- for the wrong reasons almost

always. thank you for being with us as always. >> i hope so. you listed your views, i really -- you give people the time and space to have a conversation, ali. that's not always easy, particularly these days. >> these are difficult, but thank you for being part of that with us, erin. aaron david miller's former senior adviser for his really negotiations at the state department. coming, up politics which when the supreme court case that could dismantle the federal government. we will be right back. federa government we will be right back. we will be right back. >> and ipad and apple watch se - all on us. only on verizon.

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you think, i will break it all down for you next, plus, nbc spokesperson john kirk says this morning, there are no official hostage negotiations underway right now. between hamas and israel. this after a fragile truce broke down and fighting resumed on friday. we will go to tel aviv for the very latest on the ground, and the story of how a nearly 60-year-old lobbying organization suddenly turned its attention to electing people to public office mainly for the benefit of a foreign country. then, the political calculations behind the supreme court case that threatens to dismantle agencies of the federal government. another hour of velshi begins now. good morning, it is sunday,

december the 3rd. i am ali velshi. we begin this morning with a collision course that could determine not only the outcome of the next presidential election, but the future of american democracy itself. it is happening, bit by bit. every day. so it is easy to overlook. but donald trump is trying to run out the clock, the slow, walk the many cases against, him long enough to win the republican primary before he can be convicted, or maybe even tried of a crime. and given a recent spate of legal losses for the twice impeached ex president, we are now entering a crucial time in this high stakes test of wills. last, week in appeals court reinstated the gag order against trump in new york. judges in d.c. also rejected his broad claims of presidential immunity, which prompted tanya chutkan, the judge in jack through election interference case, to write, quote, defendants for your service as commander in chief did not bestow on him the divine right of