some need to know, the pain was and is no different. richard schoeck is dead, his quirkiness, adventurous spirit, devotion to those boy scouts, all gone. >> we had a thing, it was called a richard fire. if it wasn't stoked up and burning bright and the flames licking the treetops, it wasn't a good fire. so if you want a richard fire that's the fire you've got to have. and when we are at scouting events, we have the big fire ♪♪ this sunday, revenge politics. former president trump sets off

alarms about what his return to the white house could look like. >> you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody. >> except for day one. plus, abortion fwiet. the texas supreme court temporarily blocks a pregnant woman from an emergency abortion. >> there's no outcome here that i take home a healthy baby girl, you know. so it's hard. >> will the state force her to continue her pregnancy? and new charges. president biden's son hunter is indicted for the second time this year. nine new criminal counts including tax evasion and filing false returns. what would be the political impact. plus, under fire. the president's three elite

universities facing backlash after their testimony at a congressional hearing on anti-semitism, and now the president of the university of pennsylvania has resigned. >> does calling for the genocide of jews violate penn's rules or code of conduct yes or no. >> if the speech becomes conduct, it can be harassment, yes. >> conduct committing the act of genocide? >> the answer is yes. >> my guests this morning, republican senator mitt romney of utah and democratic senator chris murphy of connecticut. joining me for insight and analysis are, nbc united states. senior white house correspondent kelly o'donnell, jonathan martin of politico, democratic polster cornell belcher and lahnee chen, fellow at the institution. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington, the longest running television show in history. this is "meet the press" with kristen welker. good sunday morning. in many ways this has felt

like an inflexion point with the war between israel and hamas claiming more lives and tensions boiling over here at home about how to address hate speech, adding to the mix, with less than a week to go before lawmakers leave washington, there is still no deal on israel and ukraine aid. nbc news has learned that the white house is expecting to ramp up its outreach to capitol hill this week, but a senior administration official is making it clear the engagement will depend on having a clear framework on border negotiations to hear from, and that hasn't happened yet. earlier this week, president biden signaled he is ready to make a deal. >> i am willing to make significant compromises on the border. we need to fix the broken border system. it is broken. >> in a new "wall street journal" poll, just 27% approve of the president's handling of securing the border. 64% disapprove. nbc news has also learned a number of hispanic and latino members of congress as well as advocacy groups are becoming increasingly concerned that president biden may strike a deal with republicans on

immigration that they find unacceptable in order to secure package on his ukraine and israel package. a the fear, according to one capitol hill democrat, the president will accept border policy changes proposed by republicans that are, quote, unimaginably cruel. the 2024 race for the white house and new controversial comments by former president donald trump in a fox news interview this week he was pressed several times to say categorically that he would not abuse his presidential power if elected to a second term. mr. trump declined to give a denial. >> you are promising america tonight you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody? >> except for day one. >> except for? >> except for day one. >> meaning? >> i want to close the border and i want to drill, drill, drill.

>> that's not -- that's not retribution. >> no, no -- i'm going to be -- i love this guy. he says, you're not going to be a dictator, are you? no, no, no. other than day one. >> joining me now is republican senator mitt romney of utah. romney, of course, was the republican nominee for president in 2012. senator romney, welcome back to "meet the press." thank you for being here. >> happy to join you, kristen. >> a lot of headlines to get to, but let's start with that texas abortion case. the state supreme court, as you know, put a hold on a lower court's decision to allow kate cox to have what her doctors say would be a medically necessary and potentially life-saving abortion. now, her fetus has been diagnosed with a health condition, and if she carries it to term, tock tors say it could jeopardize her ability to have more children in the future, something she says she very much wants.

what is your reaction, and should kate cox have the ability to terminate her pregnancy? >> i'm not going to stand in for the courts. they will evaluate the evidence, i am pro-life, but people like me that are pro-life also believe that when a woman's life is in danger the opportunity for an abortion should be apparent for her. after the supreme court overturned roe v. wade and the decision went back to the elected officials in the various states there are a lot of parameters and nuances that haven't been sorted through that. that will happen in texas and other places and ultimately we will find a settled understanding. >> and as you're indicating, did support overturning roe v. wade, but was this what you imagined when you supported roe v. wade that a woman when she's told by her doctors potentially to save her life would be denied one? >> well, i think the question here will be whether or not her life is at risk, and if it is at risk, under texas law, under texas law, she'll be

allowed to have an abortion, but each state will have to make this decision. stepping back, i think you have to recognize, when you have an issue that the nation is divided on, particularly when it's a moral issue, when some people feel it's a moral wrong to have an abortion. another feels like it should be a moral right for a woman to be able to choose. in a setting like that, you don't want to have a small group like that to decide to impose their will on anybody else. there has to be a meeting in the middle. that hasn't happened yet. i hope it happens in texas and every other state and that's the way america works, and we can't have people fulling each other apart and insisting they have to get 100% of what they want and the other side gets nothing of what they want. >> texas attorney general, ken paxton who is fighting the lower court's decision is criminal prosecution for anyone who helps kate cox get an abortion including her doctors. does that go too far? do you think her doctors should be punished if the court rules this she's entitled for this abortion. >> in texas as in every other state they'll follow the law, but in many cases politicians

play to their base and play to the crowd and let's not adjudicate what the parameters will be in abortion in texas and elsewhere. ultimately, this has to be settled not by one side imposing its will on anybody else, but both sides working together where each gets something, and that hasn't happened yet. >> okay. let's turn to those comments that we just played by former president donald trump. as you heard, he said he would not be a dictator except for day one. at an event in new york last night, he tried to downplay that, but what was your reaction to hearing those words, senator? do you believe him? >> you know, when i was a kid there was something called a gum ball machine. you could put a penny in and a gum ball would come out. there was no filter. put in the penny, out came a gumball.

donald trump is a human gumball machine. a notion that goes in, and it comes out of his motion. there's no filter and he just says whatever. i don't attach an enormous amount of impact to the particular words that come out and try to evaluate each one of them. i do think that you can look at his record as president and particularly in the last months of his presidency and say this is a dangerous approach, it's an authoritarian approach and that gives me far more concern than him playing to the crowd as he did. >> given that you're saying that he gives these unfiltered responses, we have actually seen him do what he says he's going to do. when he said he believed the election was going to be rigged before people actually went to the polls, he went on to question the results and tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

why don't you take him exactly at his word? >> oh, i think we agree that we have looked at his behavior and his behavior suggests that this is a person who will impose his will if he can on the judicial system, on the legislative branch and on the entire nation. when he called people to come to washington, d.c., on january 6th, that was not a random date. that was the date when peaceful transfer of power was to occur. he called that on purpose. there's no question he has authoritarian rulings and interests and notions which he will try to impose. that's dangerous for the country. it was dangerous then. life was lost. we were embarrassed around the world. i mean, this was a tragedy, and a number of things that he did in the last months of his presidency suggests what he would do if he were elected again. >> i want to drill down on you on just how dangerous as you say you perceive former president trump to be. liz cheney put this into dire terms this week. she told my colleague savannah guthrie, quote, there's no question trump would refuse to leave office if she's reelected. she went on to say a vote for him may mean the last election you ever get to vote in. do you with that assessment? >> i don't think donald trump would want to stay in longer

than four years. the reason i say that, i think he's running for retribution, and i think he'll be finished with retribution after four years, and i don't think he particularly likes being around the white house. i think he'd rather be back at mar-a-lago and other properties of his, but he wants to show he's not a loser. he won, and he wants to go after the people who were tough on him. so i think he'll be finished after four years and go back to other occupations. given everything we've heard from president trump what do you think a second trump term would look like? >> if you look at the last few months of his presidency you would suggest that that's the kind of thing you would see. he would not have generals, people offering impulse and instead he would have people around him encouraging his impulses and perhaps adding to them and i'm afraid you would find the nation more divided.

look, our nation doesn't need to be divided right now. a campaign based on anger and hate may win at the ballot box temporarily, but it tears the country apart. the other day the president -- the former president said we're at greater threat for what is within. i think that was in some respects a self-owned because what's within if he were to become elected president again is a campaign of retribution and anger and hate. that's not what america's based on. america was based on the idea of in god we trust and united we stand, divided we fall. a divided nation is not what america is intended to be. >> let's turn to hunter biden and the headlines around that. as you hoe know, he was indietsed on nine new charges this week. the second time he has been indicted by the special counsel this year alone.

his lawyer said if his name was anything on other than biden, the charges would not have been brought. what's your reaction to that? >> if his name was none other than biden he wouldn't be able to bilk millions from foreign entities, so let's start there. he was trading on his father's name which is ugly and unsavory, he then didn't pay taxes on it according to the prosecutors and we'll see if he can prove that case, but if he can, he violated u.s. law and should be severely punished for having done so. >> house republicans signal they may vote as early as this week on an impeachment inquiry into president biden despite the fact that they haven't shown business dealings and president biden. have you seen any evidence that president biden has committed high crimes and misdemeanors? >> no. i haven't seen any evidence of that at all. before you begin an impeachment inquiry, you should have some inclination that there is wrongdoing, and so far there's

nothing of that nature that has been provided. >> would you impose an impeachment inquiry? >> i would vote against it unless they brought something that showed high crimes and misdemeanors have been committed but that hasn't been the case. unfortunately, for most people we are not responsible for the misdeeds of my kids, grandkids and president biden's son hunter has obviously been an unsavory person and has had an extremely personal damaging foibles including a drug, and that's not president biden and we're not going to impeach someone because of the foibles of their kids. >> the senate has one week left to negotiate this aid package for israel and ukraine. republicans are holding a hard line on border security. what are the implications of not passing aid to ukraine right now, senator? >> well, i don't know

specifically how quickly the money has to get to ukraine or how quickly the armament has to get to ukraine. i have to say a couple of things. it's not just republicans holding a hard line. it's democrats holding a hard line. either side can move and get the position done, and here's the position on our side and my side. we have gone from 1,000 to 2,000 illegal encounters at the border today under the three prior presidents. under bush, obama and trump. 1,000 to 2,000 a day. now we're seeing 10,000 to 12,000 a day. as pennsylvania senator john fetterman said, we're basically seeing pittsburgh show up at the border every month. we are at a rate of incursions into the country of about 4 million a year. that's larger than the population of 24 of our states and we want to solve that, to secure the border. i just saw the president of the united states say that we've got to secure the border. he's right. any effort that doesn't do that will be rejected by republicans. we want to get it back to the

level that existed under the three prior presidents. >> and you're right, i know that this is a priority for republicans, and you're right, president biden said he's willing to negotiate. it was described to me, you have to get through all of the disagreement around the border to even start addressing the ukraine and israel piece of it. taking it a step back, what message do you think it sends to president putin, to president xi when they see that there are a growing number of republicans who are opposed to who they say is writing a blank check to ukraine? >> we're not going to write a blank check. what we will do is provide ukraine weapons to defend themselves against pew ten, who is a thug and a murderer. so that's what they're going to do. i think putin and xi recognize that democracy is messy and that our system is not authoritarian and we don't have a dictator. they're dictators, and they like

to make a big deal of the process that we go through, but you know what? it has worked for america in the past, and it will work in the future, and we'll get through this. and don't forget, the president was the one that put the border and the board err issue as part of the package. this is not a republican issue, and he brought it to the front, and that's why we're dealing with it. >> just quickly, you were the first person to call attention to russia, what you described our number one geopolitical foe. are you comfortable with your party's position on ukraine? >> each individual makes their own posture known on a particular issue and my own view is that it is very much in america's interest to see ukraine successful and to provide the weapons that ukraine needs to defend itself. anything other than that would be a huge dereliction of our responsibility and our own national interest because if

putin thinks he can invade his neighbor with impunity and that we'll step back and we're tired and we're not going to keep on helping and guess what? he's not going to stop and he'll go into a nato nation that will draw nato and our troops into war russia. this is in america's interest to make sure that ukraine puts up a great fight. >> senator romney. stay with us. we have a lot more after the break. including will senator romney endorse a candidate in the 2024 race? plus three top university presidents are under fire for their responses to a congressional hearing on anti-semitism. more with senator romney after the break. eak.

first time i connected with kim, she told me that her husband had passed. and that he took care of all of the internet connected devices in the home. i told her, “i'm here to take care of you.”

connecting with kim... made me reconnect with my mom. it's very important to keep loved ones close. we know that creating memories with loved ones brings so much joy to your life. a family trip to the team usa training facility. i don't know how to thank you. i'm here to thank you. welcome back. university of pennsylvania president liz magill resigned on saturday after facing intense criticism from alumni, lawmakers and the white house for dodging a question at a congressional hearing about anti-semitism on campus. in a five-hour house hearing on tuesday, magill and her counterparts at harvard and

mit evaded questions about whether students should be disciplined when they call for genocide of jews. >> i am asking does specifically calling for the genocide of jews is that harassment? >> if it's pervasive, that is harassment. >> the answer is yes. >> it is a question on context, congresswoman. >> the answer is yes, that calling genocide of jews violates harvard code of conduct, correct? >> again, it depends on the context. >> it does not depend on the context. the answer is yes, and this is why you should resign. >> senator mitt romney is still here with us. senator, let me get your reaction to what we just witnessed again. the president of the university of pennsylvania has now resigned. should the other two presidents resign? >> well, i'm not going to tell them what they should do, but what they it in that hearing was absolutely repugnant.

it was outrageous, incomprehensible, and it violates american munty. we're a diverse nation not to recognize that calling for the genocide of a people is awful, it's a hate crime. i mean, this was an extraordinary breach of the heads of these universities and people are saying, wait a second, if a conservative speaker would come to their campus they would be outraged and they can't come there and they're saying it's okay for people to call for genocide of the jewish people? by the way, it's not just about jews and it's about members of islam, it's about tolerance for people who are different in our country and these university presidents have to stand up for that. their failure to do so was an extraordinary failure. >> you take me to my next question, and it's about

islamophobia and hate in all of its roles and does congress have a role to play of addressing hate on college campuses and should congress be more engaged on what's happening? >> not by creating law, but by creating example and recognize that the people we choose as leaders will not just write law and effectuate policy. they're also setting the character of the country. it's one of the reasons why i have such concern about president trump is he's affected the character of america. look, we are a diverse nation whether people want it to be that way or not. we are highly diverse, not just by ethnicity, but also by religion and sexual orientation, and there are a whole series and dimensions on why we are diverse, and you may not like it, but that's who we are.

the only way a nation as diverse as us is able to be strong is if we recognize the divine nature of humanity. we recognize one another, they're false and we don't attack each other. tearing down other americans, retribution, revenge, anger, that is not the future of a great country. >> let's turn now to the 2024 race as you bring up former president trump. why haven't you endorsed a candidate yet, senator, and do you plan to do so? >> well, because if i endorse someone it would be the kiss of death. should i endorse the person i like least right now? [ laughter ] i'm not going to be endorsing president trump obviously. i've made that very clear. look, chris christie has done a terrific job so far. i think his being in the race has kept donald trump from coming to the debates because i think donald trump recognizes if he went to the debate, chris christie would reveal him for what he was and trump would be badly hurt. nikki haley is rising right now. she has a shot at becoming the nominee other than president trump, and it's a long shot on her part, but she's the one that has a shot, but we'll see. >> do you think it's time for other candidates and not nikki haley since she has the momentum

to drop out of the race, to start consolidating their support? >> i don't think it's my role to tell people when to get out and it's too big an investment by people and supporters to be running for president for someone to come in and say, hey, you ought to get out, but i hope it continues to consolidate and at some point it becomes a two-person race, but even then, i think donald trump is the prohibitive favorite. >> let me ask you about what liz cheney said. the country would be better run by donald trump and maga republicans. that's effectively what she said. do you agree with her there? >> president biden's has not worked for america. the statistics are better right now, but the american people are hurting as they go to the grocery store as bread costs $5 a loaf, they recognize that's biden's policy, and i'm not going to say biden's policies are good for america. there are democrats out there

that i think would do a better job, someone besides president biden is the democrat. >> you wrote your wife's name in for 2016 and 2020. would you like to do that? >> the joe i would like to vote for is joe manchin and i'm not going to tell you right now who i'm going to vote for. fortunately, for me i'm in a state that's not a swing state and it's not a state in contest and whoever i vote for in utah will be for donald trump, so it's kind of irrelevant, but i typically vote for anne for that run. >> do you think senator manchin is going to run? >> no, but i wish he would. i wish he were the nominee. >> there are a couple of other democrats that i can think of that would be better than president biden. >> just to put a fine point on it, it seems like you're not ruling out voting for president biden. >> i'm not going to describe who i would rule out other than president trump. you have a setting of someone who is too old and someone else who is a little too nutty, and where are you going to vote on that basis? and by the way, in my view, bad

policy we can overcome as a country. we have in the past. >> yeah. >> bad character is something which is very difficult to overcome. >> let me ask you, if donald trump is the republican nominee, but loses to president biden, do you think the certification process will be peaceful or are you concerned that it may not be? >> oh, i think it would be peaceful. i don't think there's any we but that vice president kamala harris would not try to reject electors from states that are certifying president biden as one. i just don't think america is going to erupt, but i know there will be some people who hope that that would occur. >> well, let's talk about you and your future, your decision to leave the senate. you've been adamant you're not going to run for president, so i won't ask you that question, but what is next for you, senator? >> i came here to ask you

whether a position at nbc news would be available? [ laughter ] >> i don't have the answer for that. i will continue to work to keep america the hope of the earth and the hope of the people of this country, and whether that's by lecturing at universities and going around the country and speaking or writing another book or two or maybe just, you know, getting behind some of anne's ambitions these days, my wife is leading an extraordinary center for neurologic research. life is so fantastic and it is so wonderful being alive and i don't worry about my next chapter. >> i have to ask you about george romney who also ran for president and have called him your life's hero. what would he think of the state of the republican party today? >> he would not understand it. he would not believe it. the party is very different than it was. i'm reading a lot of history. i'm reading a book right now called "the age of acrimony."

it talks about politics in the 1800s and 1900s, and, holy cow, the parties were so different. when i ran in 2012, the party is different from what it is today. president trump became our nominee and all sorts of people who were democrats forever who floated into the republican party and a lot of people left and so it's a different party today than it was then. i think he'd be surprised to see how much it's changed and the social and cultural division that you're seeing today would be of concern for him, but don't forget, when he was a governor he had race riots in his home state of michigan and detroit. we are wrestling with divisive issues even today. >> all right. senator mitt romney, you are welcomed back any time. thank you very much for being here. we really appreciate it. when we come back, republicans are demanding changes for a border security before agreeing to send aid to ukraine and israel. is a deal within reach? democratic senator chris murphy joins me next, the lead negotiator joins me next.

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welcome back. a bipartisan group of senators re-started border talks on thursday, offering dim hope that congress can pass a broad legislative package that would include aid for israel and ukraine before the end of the year. the president signaled he is ready to compromise. >> would you be okay with democrats willing to put more on border policy to get this current package through? >> yes, significantly more, particularly by starting off equipping the border capacity that we need on the border from judges to more border security. >> and senator chris murphy of connecticut, the lead negotiator in those talks, joins me now. thank you for joining me, senator. >> thank you for having me back. >> thanks for being here. bring us up to speed on the negotiations? what's the latest? where do things stand?

>> first, i think it's tragic, and republicans are tying the resolution with the most difficult issue of politics and immigration to support for ukraine and israel. vladimir putin is delighting right now in republicans' insistence that we get a deal on immigration reform, and if we don't, then they're going to allow vladimir putin to march into ukraine and perhaps into europe. this is one of the most dangerous moments that i've ever faced in american politics, and i wish republicans weren't holding aid to ukraine hostages to immigration reform. that being said, we are still in the room trying to deal with republican demands. weir not going to put donald trump's immigration policies into statute. we're not going to do that. that would be bad for the country. but we do need to do something to try to resolve this crisis at the border. we have too many people crossing, too many people that don't have valid asylum claims, and if republicans are serious about trying to control that

crisis while also still allowing into the country people that are legitimately fleeing terror, torture, and violence, then we can come into a resolution. >> i want to delve into details with you. give us a gut check. is this going to get done before the new year, senator? >> right now, republican demands are unreasonable. they don't actually get democratic votes. if i were a cynic, i would say that republicans have decided to tie support for ukraine to immigration reform because they want ukraine aid to fail, but i'm not a cynic, and so we are still trying to resolve some pretty big differences that remain. >> you don't sound very optimistic that this is going to get done with the handful of days that you have left. >> we are coming up against the end of the year, and, of course, this is a crisis moment for ukraine.

ukraine is running out of ammunition and if we don't solve this in the next few weeks, vladimir putin will have an opening to march through the ukrainian lines to make a move on kyiv, threatening all of europe so this has to be resolved right now which is why republicans have to be reasonable. we are not going to solve the entire problem of immigration between now and the end of the year, but we can make a down payment. >> we know that based on our reporting, the white house is going to get more engaged, and does the president himself get involved in the negotiations this week? >> think the white house will get more engaged this week. of course, when you talk about something as complicated as border security, you need the white house engaged because you need to know if they'll sign the bill and how the changes they're making at the border. >> if you can give me a sense of where potential common ground could be. we know that republicans are asking to toughen the asylum criteria. we know that they want new restrictions on the use of parole. are those potential areas of compromise for democrats? >> i think the bottom line for democrats and the bottom line for my constituents is pretty simple. we don't want to shut off the

united states of america to people who are coming here to be rescued from dangerous miserable circumstances that wish their life is in jeopardy. that is the best of america that you can come here to be rescued from terror and torture and it will not shut down the border completely from people legitimately coming here to have their lives rescued, but we are willing to tighten some of the rules so that you don't have 10,000 people arriving a day. our resources are not equipped to be able to handle that number of people. so let's reduce the number of people who are coming here, but let's not shut down the border completely to legitimate claims. >> republicans would argue, many of them, they're not calling to completely shut down the border, but as you say, to make it tougher to get through. and if you look at the poll numbers, the latest "wall street journal" poll shows a whopping 64% of people disapprove of

president biden's handling of the border. does that add pressure you and the democrats to get something done here? ? >> i'm not paying attention to the politics here, and what i know is that the future of the world is at stake. if we fail and if republicans don't get reasonable in the next 24 to 48 hours russia is going to march into ukraine, china is going to be given a green light to invade taiwan. the world for my children is fundamentally different under that scenario. the united states security is at risk, so i am just beside myself and the republicans are playing games with the security of the world. i will try to meet them where they are, but this is a very dangerous point. >> i want to ask you about ukraine aid. you are giving these dire warnings here. we have consistently heard you say that. can an extra $60 billion in aid change the outcome of this war or will it just allow ukraine to continue with the status quo? >> it can change the outcome of this war because at the very same time that we are making a renewed commitment to ukraine, russia's ability to continue to fight this war is in jeopardy.

you look at the revenues from oil sales and the projections for the next year, russia's going to have a hard time coming up with the resources necessary to keep this fight going. in the end, will there likely have to be a negotiated solution? absolutely, but if we cut off ukraine now, the outcome is certain. the outcome is certain. ukraine loses this war. maybe not next month, but some time next year because europe will not stick with us if the united states abandons ukraine. this is a decision moment for ukraine, for the united states, and for the world. >> i do want to ask you about some of the other headlines this week. hunter biden has been indicted again on tax charges. do you think the hunter biden prosecution is political as his lawyer has contented or do you think that it's legally justified? >> i think it's legally

justified. i think this is a very troubled individual who has -- who has done things worthy of prosecution, so i look forward to that case continuing. i think ultimately the american people understand that hunter biden is not going to be on the ballot next fall, that joe biden will be on the ballot, and this is a president that has led an economic policy that has been unprecedented, and that's what matters to the american people. >> senator mitt romney was here and he expressed outrage over the broader issue of hunter biden profiting off of his last name. do you think, senator, that it is inappropriate for a politician's family member to profit off of their family's last name? >> i do, in any case. when i look at the trump family it seems that they have made an industry out of profiting off of donald trump's presidency. in fact, as soon as donald trump was out of the white house, what did his son-in-law do? go and raise billions of dollars from saudi arabia. and so i think the american public are going to be very concerned about what has

happened inside the trump family since donald trump has left the white house. >> senator, respectfully, i asked you about the biden family. hunter biden, do you think it's inappropriate that he has apparently profited off of his last name, and could that hurt the president's re-election chances? >> i think hunter biden will be held accountable in court for any violations of the law that he's committed and the american public will get to watch that play out in real time, but what i am absolutely certain of is that the american public are going to see a distinct contrast between joe biden and donald trump, and they're not going to be interested in a trump presidency that's going to criminalize abortion and give more handouts to billionaires and the wealthy. they're going to see president biden who is invested in the middle class and helps the economy recover and that will be the contrast that will matter to the american people. senator chris murphy, thank you so much. thanks for being here in person. i appreciate it. ing. >> when we come back, will iowa voters look beyond trump as their party nominee? what history tell us about how important winning iowa really is for a presidential campaign. for a presidential campaign.

welcome back. welcome back. we are now just five weeks away from the iowa caucuses and the very first votes of the 2024 presidential cycle. historically, iowa has not been a great predictor of republican nominees. ted cruz, rick santorum, and mike huckabee won the state. none of them became the party's nominee. in 1988, kansas senator bob dole

also won iowa. the eventual nominee george h.w. bush finished a distant third. senator dole joined this broadcast the day before the caucuses. >> can you afford to lose here? are you finished if you don't finish first? >> i don't think i'm finished, but i'd like to do well here. >> you have to be -- >> i haven't moved since 1980, and i ran in 1980 and it wasn't the neighborhood that made me finish last. i think it's the fact that i've been dealing with the issues since that time. i have a message to the iowa voters, and what we want is a signal to go out here tomorrow night that the bob dole message was accepted by a majority of the people that went to the republican caucuses. >> a majority of people, you're looking for 50%? >> it's oversight. >> can you survive a loss here? >> yes. a loss is a loss, a win is a

win. >> very profound. >> gertrude stein would have loved it. >> a loss is a loss and a win is a win. good stuff there. when we come back, what's the political impact for president biden as his son faces a new set of criminal charges? the panel is next. t of criminal? the panel is next. i felt this rush, i just had to keep going. a lot of people think no pain no gain, but with golo it is so easy. when i look in the mirror, i don't even recognize myself. golo really works.

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welcome back. the panel is here. nbc news senior white house correspondent kelly o'donnell, jonathan martin, senior political columnist for "politico," democratic pollster, cornell belcher, and la knee chen, a fellow at the institute. >> kelly, let me start with you. there is a new "wall street journal" poll that shows former president trump is leading president biden by four points.

take us inside biden world. how concerning is this, and i know within this context you've got new reporting on how they might view the issue of abortion which we've obviously been talking about here in 2024. >> the first reaction is bad poll numbers is something that is somehow baked in in the minds of people who are close to the president and they've seen it before. they turned quickly and looked at recent elections and say when voters are asked to not just responded to the survey, but cast a ballot they have done so with some of the things that match up with priorities. we saw it in november with the state legislature and we saw it in ohio with respect on abortion. on abortion the new reporting is that the campaign will more aggressively tie donald trump to every instance in america where there is a restriction, a ban on abortion. when there is abortion in the news. you were talking with senator romney about the texas case, to say ken paxton, the state attorney general was endorsed by donald trump and so they want to link trump in every way to the change in people's lives with respect to abortion and to then say that is the kind of position you would have. when donald trump talks about day one being an authoritarian and a dictator, they're saying

day by day he's becoming more autocratic, and so if they look at something practical, on abortion, and that's the way to get to it. democracy might be more theoretical for many americans and so abortion is where they can link him to that day by day. >> fascinating. jonathan, you heard mitt romney, a couple of things that stood out to me. one, he did not rule out voting for president biden. >> yes. >> number two, he said he'd like to see joe manchin run. is that realistic? we've been trying to get an answer out of joe manchin. >> i don't think joe manchin is running for president, and i think mitt romney will have a voice next fall that he's not thrilled about, but i think it will come down to he'll vote for president biden, and it's a matter of how public he is about that and whether he'll avoid that question a few more times between now and then. by the way, not just mitt romney, the pre-trump gop figures in this country, george w. bush, liz cheney, they're not thrilled about joe biden, but that's going to be the option they have and i think there will be a challenge especially if

president trump keeps talking in a sort of autocratic fashion of you don't like biden's policies, but do you want this as an alternative? maybe someone else will emerge because they're december pirates to not have the biden/trump option, but that increasingly seems like that's where we're going right now, but they'll have to pick. >> lahnee chen, you were policy director for mitt romney when he was running for president. a lot of people want to compare this moment to 2012 and say hey, remember when former president obama was locked in a fierce fight with governor romney, but is it the same as 2012? >> i don't think so. i mean i went back and looked at the numbers as an example. in 2012 at that point in the campaign, barack obama either had a narrow lead or in some

cases he had an eight-point lead in the head-to-head case with mitt romney, and the challenge is twofold for the president. first of all, the issues on which he's weakest, the economy and immigration on the wall street journal poll happened to be the issues that americans care most about if you believe that poll. the other challenge he has and, look, this applies to donald trump, as well. they are both equally disliked to jonathan's point. if you look at their very unfavorable ratings and these ratings of great intensity saying who do you really like, who do you really dislike, donald trump and joe biden are equally disliked with an equal amount of fervor and 50%. it's a remarkable number and this is the election americans don't want. it's not just the elites. the americans don't want it. >> i think there are some differences and there are huge differences between now and 2012, but i will say this, in the public polling, no. actually mitt romney was ahead of barack obama, and the public polling and the internal polling, it was different, but let me say this about the polling. enough with the polling, right? it's not predictive of what's

going to happen in the presidential -- >> even though there are a number of polls pointing to the same thing? >> this is why we use polling and campaigns. this is what we use polls for in the campaign we look at what the problem is and how to fix the problem. when i see the 47-43 number, i'm not at all concerned about the future. i am emboldened. i know where donald trump is going to be. he wins by subtraction and not addition. underneath that poll, what you have there is what i call the obama con continuum, right? these younger voters who are not necessarily tried to either strongly tied to either democrat or republican, although, they're a lot more progressive on most issues, and that's where biden right now is suffering the most, and these are not going to beechb the trump voters. so the campaign they're going to have to build is work to bring those young voters back.

>> the risk is that they don't vote at all or even -- more for biden and you have 10,000 voters or more in madison, wisconsin in ann arbor, michigan who pull the lever for jill stein or cornell west. >> that's 2016 all over again. see, i'm more worried about the third-party voting than i'm worried about trump. >> the campaign tells me they're more aware of that, black and brown voters they can do traditional get out the vote. they have to do persuasion. active persuasion to remind voters about things like the trouble spots you mentioned, economic issues. >> but also -- really quickly, also, i came out with a poll two weeks ago and this is what actually helps him, right? the comparison of trump. and in talking about african american voters and what's the greatest threat to the african american community, inflation, crime, and the re-election of donald trump. the re-election of donald trump by the plurality of african american voters think that's the greatest threat.

not inflation, not crime and donald trump. >> that's a motivator? >> we have a new data point in the race this week which is the son of president biden has been indicted yet again, and that republicans are moving to open an impeachment inquiry into president biden despite there not being a link yet. here's what he had to say about that inquiry this week. >> can you explain to the americans at this impeachment inquiry why you interacted with so many of your son and brothers and foreign business associates? >> i'm not going to comment that i did not, and that's a bunch of lies. lies. i did not.

they're lies. >> kelly, fired up there. we should note those comments were made before hunter biden was indicted. what is the strategy to deal with this inside the white house? >> it's painful. it's personal. they want to put it in that category. they also say that in 2020, hunter biden was a fixture of the republican campaign, and i think they want to talk about voters able to separate the candidates' son from the candidate and they think republicans are trying to use this to diffuse the legal troubles of donald trump -- >> find me the biden white house adviser who will go to the boss and say we need a new strategy about your son. >> there isn't one because they don't have -- >> it muddies the waters. that's the challenge that they have. >> of course. >> this is an issue on which they can potentially prosecute donald trump. they'll use this as a referendum on donald trump and if they use the issue they want to use which is the character of donald trump. this muddies the waters for the white house and that's the challenge, how do they overcome this? someone has to speak truth on power on this. someone has to make that point. >> what a child does, as most parents, understand is not muddying my waters. if your child gets in trouble that does not muddy my waters. don't take it from me, take it from chip roy, a republican. what have house republicans done that they can run on?

last time i checked, i've been in focus groups for the last two months, and no middle american working mom is bringing up hunter biden. she's bringing up costs and student loans. >> and yet republicans are winning on the generic ballot. >> they are always running on the -- >> it's not just what he says and it's how he looks in the presentation that is jarring americans. >> all right, folks. we have to leave it there. this was fantastic. you don't need me here at all. thank you. that is all for today. thank you for watching. happy hanukkah. we'll be back next week because it's sunday, it's "meet the press." it appears that donald trump