. hi there, i'm jessica layton at msnbc headquarters in new york city. our top stories of this hour. we have breaking news, a decision from israel's supreme court that could deepen divisions in the country just as prime minister benjamin netanyahu promises many more

months of fighting in gaza. we break that down next. plus, a series of powerful earthquakes rocking japan, leading to reports of fires and landslides, and triggering a tsunami warning. what we know right now about the damage as officials warn the after shocks could continue for up to a week. and the new year means new raises for millions of americans. the minimum wage hike happening in nearly half the country. but it is not all good news. we'll explain. we begin this afternoon with the new developments in the israel-hamas war as israeli forces expand operations in gaza. tel aviv was hit with a barrage of rockets right as the new year began. hamas is claiming responsibility, and it comes as prime minister benjamin netanyahu faces a new challenge as he navigates through the growing offensive. israel's supreme court today overturning a key component of his controversial judicial overhaul. nbc's josh lederman is joining

us from tel aviv. josh, let's talk about what this ruling means for israel? >> reporter: well, it means that the high court here will retain the ability to reject laws that are passed by the government that it feels are unreasonable, and that is really critical according to critics of this overhaul, to maintaining israel's democratic character. this overhaul had been a huge source of unrest in this country, hundreds of thousands taking to the streets every single saturday night to protest for really most of last year, until the october 7th terror attacks upended everything here. and now the real question is will this once again create a whole lot of folks around democratic reforms, around netanyahu's leadership, or will the military and the country stay squarely focused on the goal of eliminating hamas which has really united israelis from across the political spectrum over the last two and a half months. >> you know, josh, we're already three months into the war, and

now netanyahu is vowing that the war against hamas will go on for quote, many more months as he continues to reject these international calls for a cease fire. many more months, that is so overwhelming, i mean, what might that even look like? >> reporter: well, it could look like israel going full bore the way that it is right now, jessica, or it could look like israel shifting into a smaller scale phase of this war where it's not going the kind of widespread air strikes that are killing so many palestinians and instead, it's focusing on targeted raids to go after senior hamas leaders. that's what the biden administration has been pushing israel to do for weeks but so far israel has been rebuffing that pressure, and just today we heard from israel's government saying they're actually removing five brigades that are in the gaza strip, including thousands of reservists, but you might think the fact that israel is withdrawing some of its troops would signal that it is winding down this war.

to the contrary, israel's military signaling that it is the opposite. they are pacing themselves for the long haul. they need those reservists to go back to their homes, they need the troops to go back to their training facilities because they say there will be a lot more fighting ahead, and they do not intend to stop until they completely accomplish this goal of eliminating hamas. >> we are going to talk about that more. for now, josh lederman in tel aviv, thank you. joining us is maryizen, managing director of the international institute for counter terrorism at reichman university. she is also a former israeli government spokesperson and a retired idf colonel. great to have you with me this afternoon. how significant, i want to talk about the supreme court first. how significant a blow is the israel supreme court's ruling to netanyahu? how might it impact israel as it navigates through the war? >> today is january 1st, 2024,

and, jessica, for most of 2023, for me as an israeli, and i was one of those israelis who would go out every saturday night to protest, not against israel as a country but very much on the idea that in a democracy, you have to have a strong judiciary. and today we heard the voice of a very strong, independent israeli supreme court, and it is most definitely not what both netanyahu and the all of the 64 coalition members of this government, none of them wanted to hear this voice. and i say very strongly, it goes to show, even in these times in israel, as a democracy, we have a strong judiciary, and i really do hope we continue to have a strong judiciary. i don't know of any democracy that does poorly because their judiciary is under the government decisions let alone under parliament, and this is a very strong decision. >> you know, speaking of the

protests, over the weekend, thousands of israelis took part in one of the largest demonstrations against netanyahu that we've seen since this war began. as you know, he is rejecting all calls to resign, saying, quote, the only thing i'm going to resign from is hamas. what do you see as his future in israel? >> we have to look at it as a complex kind of thing, and jessica, i'm talking to you, and you live in the united states, and now you're in an election year, and as we know, there are different voices in the united states about who should be the next president, different voices in israel about netanyahu, and i was one of those, i say clearly, it's not about protesting him. it's definitely protesting the changes that this government wanted to bring about in israel's democratic values. i do think that we need to be wary of saying right now that this is the end of his career. netanyahu knows how to bring together a lot of different allies. he knows how to bring out a very strong sense of union, and i

know that sounds odd, as an who has opposed him, i very much hope that the voices right now of what we call the silent majority in israel that have to hold somebody responsible for the events of october 7th that that responsibility is not going to only be the heads of military and security issues. this was a colossal failure, and it's got to go within it, both when it comes to the government and netanyahu, and i do hope that that will be the distance, but i'm not holding my breath. i'm not sure that will happen. >> we heard josh just mention in his report that as part of the new year's strategy, israel is going to be withdrawing some forces out of gaza. the idf says some reservists will return home to their families. how should we be viewing this move? >> i teach at a university, a wonderful university. and school started two weeks ago, and most of the universities only started today or yesterday. in israel, we don't have the

regular new year's kind of holiday. we go by the jewish year, and i say that because in the reservists, you have an enormous amount of young people at university. in israel, you go to university after your military service, and they have been called up to the reserves. we need to get our economy back on board. we need our universities to be open. we need to continue the thriving life in israel to try to give a better future both for us and the people in the gaza strip. what that means is that you have to give a hiatus. we're not a country which when everybody is called up that you can sustain that all together for a long time. the main force that we'll be fighting now is going to be what we'll call the regular israeli force. those are going to be the recruits. again, this isn't like in the states. it's a compulsory service. 18-year-olds that have been drafted over the last few months. they are going to be in training. going on and in, it's going to be changing the reservists with regular troops, trying to make it something sustainable for a

long period, but keeping high intensity fighting. >> the idf release new information on 29 tragic deaths that resulted from what they're calling accidents. 18 of those soldiers were killed as a result of friendly fire. does that number surprise you? is that number unusual? >> jessica, one of the things i talk as a military expert is you don't want to go right now and look at any other numbers anywhere in the world. war is a horrible place. it's horrible for people. people suffer. it's also horrible for soldiers when you are inside a war. that tournament we call the fog of war for every soldier. you're firing and positive what you're doing is the correct thing. as you know, we inadvertently, israeli soldiers killed three israeli hostages amongst others. friendly fire is a horrible term, but that's part of what happens, and i want to say even proud in the horrible time

period we're in that the israeli defense forces is both acknowledging it, learning from it, trying to avoid certainly the civilian casualties that have been happening so strongly in the gaza strip for the last three months. but also in a war itself, taking care of the art of war of the soldiers, trying as much as possible to be focused, targeted, against the threat, the threat of hamas, the genocide dal terrorist organization. >> colonel miri eisen, thank you so much for your insight today. >> thank you so much, and happy new year. >> you too, thank you. we want to go the to other side of the world now to japan where a tsunami advisory remains in effect after a massive 7.6 magnitude earthquake struck the western part of the country. just take a look at this video. it's absolutely terrifying from inside a shaking home during the height of the earthquake. the shaking causing homes there to crumble, killed at least three people, that's according

to local japanese media. nbc's liz kreutz is following this for us. also with me, nbc meteorologist bill karins. the u.s. geological survey says the quake is the strongest in the region in more than four decades. what is the latest we're getting out of japan right now? >> reporter: such a scary way to start the new year for hundreds of thousands of people in japan right now. as you mentioned, we know that at least three people are confirmed dead from these quakes. but many more people are believed to be trapped under the rubble. reports say that hundreds of buildings have been reduced to rubble and collapsed, and there's also tens of thousands of people that have had to evacuate to higher ground because of concerns of tsunamis. and videos coming out are very scary showing intense shaking at train stations and shrines and temples, reportedly crowded as people go to them to celebrate the new year. you can hear people screaming during the shaking. people trapped under buildings.

some people went into cardiac arrest. others taken to the hospital because of broken bones. there's mass power outages in the west part of the country, and also about 1,400 people that remain stuck on halted bullet trains that are stuck because of the quake. so the full damage is still being assessed but this is very much an active situation, an active rescue situation underway right now, jessica. >> and too many bad memories from 2011. liz, thank you, and bill, japan has downgraded the tsunami warnings to advisories, what does that mean, and what are the risks going forward? >> so about 12 hours ago is when we had the big earthquake, and at that point, there was a tsunami warning, and they were saying up to 6 meter waves. like 18 feet. that's like, whoa, that got everyone's attention, everyone evacuated the coast, this is the sea of japan. this is where the earthquake took place. this is on the west coast of japan that had the evacuations. they downgraded to an advisory. there was no big huge tsunami.

there was a 2'1" reported in a few spots. no damage, no nothing. they have left the advisory up. we're having after shocks, and a strong enough after shock, we could get a small tsunami, that's the concern. so the big fears are over. and nothing devastating is going to happen. this was at a depth of 7.6, a depth of 10 kilometers, which is about 6 miles. a shallow earthquake, more shallow than this one would give more shaking and a better chance of a stronger tsunami. this was close enough to the surface to be very concerning. it wasn't one that was going to produce a huge tsunami. here's tokyo over here. that's the shake map. this is a very strong to severe shaking. this peninsula is what all the videos we showed you, all from this peninsula here. roads are cut off here. having to get crews by boat out to this peninsula because they can't get the heavy machinery. temperatures down around low 30s because it's winter, and if there are people stuck in the

rubble. hypothermia is a big concern as they go through the night. sun will be coming up in a couple of hours. if you're wondering how unusual this is, when we get something in the 7 range magnitude, on the entire planet, we get about 18 of those a year. some in the middle of the ocean. we never hear about them, never do anything. occasionally, every year we can get 18.0 or higher. this was a 7.6. if you're wondering what the after shocks are like. this map shows the after shocks that we have had since the big one. all the little circles that are here. you get the peninsula that we're talking about. as people are trying to recover in the middle of the night, darkness new york city power, water, they're still shaking out there too. the sun will be up, a better idea of how extensive the damage is in a couple of hours. >> we'll all be watching. bill karins, thank you. up next, talk about circling back. congress has a lot of unfinished business to get to when members

come back from their break. an update on where members stand to overhaul border policy, and send aid to israel and ukraine. keep it here. we're back in 60 seconds. with nurtec odt, i can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. always dry scoop before you run. the hot dog diet got me shredded! the world is full of "health experts"... it's time we listen to science. one a day is formulated with b vitamins to help convert food into fuel. science that matters.

all right. it may be a new year, but in congress, five major legislative battles from 2023 are spilling over into what is now 2024. to start, a hightakes clash over immigration policy funding for aid to israel and ukraine. an impending deadline to fund the government, and of course house republicans have to decide whether to impeach president biden, and reauthorizing the faa and passing a farm bill. congress will have to come to an agreement on the parameters of the government's spying power, something that fbi director christopher wray says is key to combatting foreign terrorism. nbc's garrett haake has the latest. >> reporter: this really remains

one of the biggest and most intractable issues on congress's plate when they come back next week, how to solve what has been a roadblock around freeing up money for ukraine and for israel. both of which have significant bipartisan support but are locked up in a debate about border security funding and policy changes. that's been the demand to release this money, and that's where congress has been stuck for the last two weeks of last year, and at least it looks like the first week of this year. that small core group of senators who have been negotiating this, chris murphy kyrsten sinema did say they were planning to meet virtually over the holidays to see if they could break the impasse. we know democrats have been willing to give on asylum, some of the border policies that have been untouchable until now in the biden administration. things look more like trump administration border policies, but it's not clear if democrats are willing to go far enough for james langford, the senate negotiator or even farther still for house republicans who are

ultimately going to have to approve anything that these senators dream up that could get the 60 votes in the senate. it remains a difficult problem. immigration has been an issue as one republican senator said to me once, never failed to fail on for the last 30 to 40 years. whether they can do so now with 100 plus billion dollars of foreign aid to two key allies is the carrot at the end of the stick here, is very much an open question, and will probably not get a better answer until senators are back in town, and what they heard from constituents about what the appetite is for voters to get a deal done early this year. >> garrett haake, thank you . and joining me now, continue for the "atlanta journal-constitution," tia mitchell. let's start where garrett left off, the fighting for funding for israel and ukraine, what is it going to take for republicans and democrats to get a deal done here? >> yeah, i don't think there's a

specific silver bullet. it's going to take political will and the ability to negotiate to the likes that we really haven't seen from congress in a really long time. now, we know that occasionally they have gotten it done when their backs have been to the ball but on immigration, it has not happened, as garrett said, in decades. we're going to see if the will to compromise is there. >> and it's hard to imagine that it is when all of 2023 it wasn't. but like you said, backs are against the wall now. let's talk about the government shutdown deadline. lawmakers have nine legislative days before five areas of government, we're talking transportation, housing, energy, agricultural and veterans affairs, major areas are going to run out of money. how likely is it that the government will shut down this time? >> so, again, this is just like

the big question that all of us reporters in washington are trying to figure out. on one hand, the vast majority of members of congress do not want to see a shut down, but on the other hand, you've got an increasing numbers of conservatives in the house, not just your far right members but others who consider themselves conservatives, they're worried about national debt. they say, hey, if the shutdown happens, that's how it goes. so be it. and because we're hearing that from more and more republicans, that makes it more likely there will be a shutdown. now, again, i think it's no one's preference, a lot will depend, again, like garrett said, what they heard over these last few weeks as they were back in their districts, speaking to the people who are going to have to reelect them in a few months. now, if they were hearing, a lot of these republicans go back to their districts and their people are telling them shut it down, that's the problem.

but how many of them compared to who went back in the district and heard, no, don't shut it down, we need our agencies, we've got federal workers here to need their checks to feed their families also don't shunt shut it down because republicans are looking dysfunctional. those are the two camps, which is louder, that's what we'll be looking to see in the coming days to washington, really after the house gets back in next week. >> we have a myriad of issues, and oh, by the way, there's also the biden impeachment inquiry. how is that looming over the new year in congress? >> so i think of all of those things, it's not top of mind right now because these government funding issues, the border issues, israel and ukraine, particularly as biden has really ramped up the israel-hamas conflict is starting to become a more regional conflict. so right now, i think the biden

impeachment, quite frankly, members of both sides of the aisle see it as a back burner, a side show, but again, that being said, there are some hard line members, their constituents want biden impeached, so therefore, they're big on not letting it fall to the wayside, not letting it be pushed out of the main conversation but the question is how many of those republicans truly want to forge ahead quickly, and how many of those republicans are willing to take it slow knowing that their constituents expect them to tackle these other big issues. that's another thing we're watching in the coming days. >> tia mitchell, thank you, and you're staying with me a little later in the show. to breaking news at the u.s. southern border, we have learned that border agents encountered a record high of 300,000 migrants in the month of december alone,

according to two dhs officials. december saw the highest daily crossings on record at the southwest border. at times, eclipsing 12,000 per day. up next, we begin the new year with something the nation has never seen before, a four-time indicted former president facing several trials. what's ahead for donald trump as he confronts his past while campaigning for his future. you're watching msnbc reports. r. every breath matters. don't let rsv take your breath away. protect yourself from rsv... ...with abrysvo, pfizer's rsv vaccine. abrysvo is a vaccine for the prevention of lower respiratory disease from rsv in people 60 years and older. rsv can be serious if you are 60 or older. having asthma, copd, diabetes, or heart disease puts you at even higher risk. abrysvo is not for everyone and may not protect all who receive the vaccine. don't get abrysvo if you've had a severe allergic reaction to its ingredients.

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if you're keeping score, 91 felony counts, four criminal trials, and one critical election. that is what donald trump is facing this new year as his legal calendar is colliding with his campaign schedule. with so much to keep track of, nbc's laura jarrett helps break it down. >> we are coming on the air with breaking news set to rattle the 2024 presidential campaign and our country's legal landscape. >> reporter: after years of investigations. >> they're not coming after me. they're coming after you. >> reporter: 2023 will go down as the year it all came to a head. >> we have one set of laws in this country, and they apply to everyone. >> reporter: the 45th president now a criminal defendant. donald trump indicted in multiple jurisdictions. >> an unprecedented moment in history, the fallout far reaching. >> this is a grave day and a serious one for our country. >> reporter: first, charged in

new york for what prosecutors say he did to get into office originally. mr. trump stands accused of doctoring his family's books and records to cover up an embarrassing story ahead of the 2016 election. >> the manhattan grand jury voting to indict former president donald trump. >> reporter: then in washington and georgia. >> we look at the facts, we look at the law, and we bring charges. >> reporter: allegations of a sweeping conspiracy to stay in power and steal the 2020 election. >> not about calling the election rigged, it's not about saying that he had actually won. it's about the means that he used to do that. >> reporter: the former president also charged for what the justice department says he did after he finally left the white house. >> the new photos released showing boxes of documents stocked in a ballroom, even a basket in his mar-a-lago home. >> reporter: his arrest and arraignment playing out live, mr. trump treating his court appearances almost as campaign

events. the sole mug shot taken in fulton county, another surreal first, along a steady stream of attacks. >> the attorney general of this state is a disgrace. >> reporter: against the prosecutors, judges, and witnesses against him. >> i did nothing wrong. and everybody knows it. i've never had such support. >> reporter: with each passing indictment, his poll numbers have grown. his fundraising numbers through the roof. yet his legal woes have become increasingly complicated with several alleged coconspirators pleading guilty in georgia and now cooperating with prosecutors. >> if i knew then what i know now, i would have declined to represent donald trump in these post election challenges. >> reporter: it's not just criminal cases on the docket this year, on the civil side. >> did donald trump sexually abuse ms. carroll, the answer to that from the jury is yes. >> reporter: mr. trump found liable for sexually abusing writer, e. jean carroll, and

calling her claims a hoax. his deposition played at trial. >> you can do anything, grab them by the. [ bleep ] you can do anything. that's what you said, correct. >> historically, that's true with stars. >> it's true with stars that they can grab women by the. [ bleep ] >> if you look over the last million years, i guess that's been largely true, not always, but largely true. unfortunately or fortunately. >> mr. trump now appealing that $5 million verdict against him while the ongoing trial in manhattan appears to have struck a nerve. >> this is just a railroad job, a witch hunt with no jury. >> reporter: the family's real estate empire that propelled him to fame in the white house now on the line. having already found fraud, the judge now set to determine the penalty in the coming weeks while mr. trump's rhetoric outside the courtroom. >> we have a corrupt legal system in new york city and new york state. >> reporter: increasingly landing him in real legal jeopardy, battling over two gag

orders. >> they do gag orders because they don't want to hear the truth. >> reporter: 2024 could pose the greatest threat yet with the political calendar and trial schedule on a collision course with the first criminal trial against the republican front runner set to begin next spring. laura jarrett, nbc news. >> laura, thank you. >> and joining me now is msnbc legal analyst, former michigan u.s. attorney and law professor at university of michigan, barbara mcquade. happy new year, thanks for joining us today. >> good afternoon to you, jessica. >> let's start with the latest out of the election interference case. trump's legal team as we knows arguing that he has bad immunity after being acquitted in his impeachment ial. just this past saturday, special counsel jack smith fought back saying, and here's the quote, rather than vindicating our constitutional framework, the defendant's sweeping immunity claim threatens to license presidents to commit crimes to remain in office. the founders did not intend and

would have never counteranced such a result. my question is how effective is this so called broad immunity claim? >> i think it's going to fail ultimately. jack smith filed a very persuasive brief. and ultimately every court that looks at it is going to reject it. it's going to be absurd as highlighted in the brief to allow a president to be immune if it's in their official capacity. he points out it would mean he could order the assassination of the political rivals during the state of the union address. the hard part about the case for jack smith is the delay resulting from the appeals. if it goes all the way to the supreme court, we could see a lengthy delay in the trial date which is supposed to start in march. >> maine followed of course colorado and removing trump from the primary ballot a couple of days ago. both decisions are on hold at the moment.

we expect the legal team to challenge it. trump's legal team to challenge this any day now. how likely is he to succeed? >> i think this one is a closer call. it's, you know, in colorado and in maine, both of the authorities there found that donald trump was a u.s. official who had engaged in an insurrection, which makes him ineligible for the ballot. other states have found for various procedural reasons have come to a different conclusion. i think there are a number of different questions that the courts are going to have to answer and if any one of those answers goes in trump's favor, he stays on the ballot. so, you know, i think for most of us who watch with our eyes and saw what happened on january 6th, yes, he engage instead insurrection and should be barred from the ballot. i think this is a much closer question. >> we know that california came out and said they're keeping him on the ballot. with several other states

possibly following the way of colorado and maine, there is increased pressure for the supreme court to act, and quickly, frankly. how quickly do we expect that to happen? >> that's such an important issue because ordinarily, the court sets briefing and they hear oral argument, and they issue decisions on these meaty cases at the end of their term in june. we really can't wait that long. just recently, the plaintiffs in colorado addition to filing their petition to the court to grant review have asked that any decision be made by february 12th that includes getting all the briefs, hearing oral argument and issuing a decision. that's less than six weeks away. they say all of these states need to start printing their ballots. overseas military members need to receive ballots. february 12th seems to be the latest deadline that could be done and still avoid disrupting some of these primary elections in various states. >> the beginning of our

conversation, you mentioned the upcoming march trial which we know could be postponed. what are there, there's like four trials coming up for trump. is there one that tops your list as the one that is must see? >> to me, the one that has to go is the federal election interference case. that one really needs to go before the election for a couple of reasons. number one, because it's a federal case, if this case were to lapse past the election and donald trump were to be elected, he could do a number of things to thwart it. he could appoint an attorney general, simply dismisses the case. there's some argument that he might try to pardon himself from anything that goes on there. and because of this idea that a sitting president cannot stand trial, even if it were to go eventually, it wouldn't occur until after he served his term in 2029. he's had the chance to do all of the things we're worried about with the second trump

presidency. that's the one that need to take place i think before the november election. >> 2029, you really just got me there. it's very overwhelming to think about. barbara mcquade as always, thank you for being here today. >> thank you. still ahead, for president biden, you know it's all about that bass, the new poll raising alarms about the key voters that once propelled him to victory over donald trump. you're watching msnbc reports. r. but i didn't wait. they told their doctors. and found out they had... atrial fibrillation. a condition which makes it about five times more likely to have a stroke. if you have one or more of these symptoms irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue or lightheadedness, contact your doctor. this is no time to wait. ♪♪ here's to... one year bolder. ♪♪

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as the 2024 election year begins in earnest, presidential joe biden has a tall task ahead if he wants to win a second term. a new usa today suffolk university poll shows donald trump leading by two points, it's 39% to 37%. and that is within the poll's margin of error. but an unnamed third party candidate gets 17%. however, a deeper lock reveals that the president is failing to keep support in key parts of the coalition that helped him get elected in 2020. he gets the support of only 63% of black voters and is losing hispanic voters by about 5 points. support among both groups is down big time since 2020. susan page is the washington bureau chief for "usa today", and she's our expert on that. and tia mitchell is back with me. happy new year.

susan, what stood out about this poll the most? how significant is the president's loss of support among those key demographics? >> we looked at three groups of voters that biden won overwhelmingly last time around, voters under 35, black voters, and hispanic voters, and he is in much worse shape with all three of these groups. trump is leading among young voters. trump is leading among hispanic voters. last time around, biden won 2-1. and look at black voters, his support, 87% in 2020. down to 63% now. the good news for biden if there is some is black voters have not gone to trump. you get 12%, that's exactly what he got in the 2020 election but they have gone to an unnamed third party candidate. 20% of black candidates say they will vote third party. that may be an easier group to get back on his side. he definitely needs to do that if he's going to win another

term in the white house. >> tia, i wonder what you're hearing from top democrats in the white house. how concerned they are with president biden connecting with the black and hispanic voters and, what they feel like needs to be done to turn this around? >> i think there are two trains of thought about the polling. there's been a lot of problematic polling for biden in recent weeks. and, again, we all know the normal caveats, polling is a snapshot in time. we're almost a year still away from the general election. but you'll hear some democrats who say this is a sign that the biden campaign needs to ramp up. they need to hire more staff. particularly in swing states. they need to do a better job giving their message, shaping their message for these different segments of voters. you also have some democrats on the inside who say do not panic about these polls. it's early. there's time. trust the process. look at what happened in the

past. obama had terrible polling, still managed to win a second term, so, but i think in general, people acknowledge that the biden campaign has some ramping up to do, but most democrats say that they're confident that will happen. >> susan, i want to go back to something you said at the beginning of ts conversation, and you write that biden's loss of support doenot necessarily mean a gain for trump. quote, the possible good news for the president is that much of the support he nds to rebuild has drifted to third-party candidates not into the camp of his likely opponent. 20% of hispanic and black voters, and 21% of young voters now say they're going to back someone other than the two main contenders. how significant could that prove in an election where we imagine every vote will count? >> yeah, absolutely, jessica. one of the encouraging things we found in our survey for biden, and a survey that was generally

a little discouraging, a majority of those say they might reconsider that if they thought the vote was going to tip the election. that's what we see with third-party support. it tend to erode as we get closer to election day. people want their votes to count. people are a little more optimistic about the economy than they have been in the past. a big jump since our october poll, and those who say the economy is in recovery. now, biden is not yet benefitting from that sunnier outlook. the white house hopes he eventually will. >> at some point this is sort of a math problem. how much support could biden lose to the third-party candidates and still win? >> yeah, and i mean, again, one of the things that's hard to gauge is because we really don't know where we're going to be at when it actually comes time for voting who those third party candidates will be. and quite frankly, what the

perception of those third party candidates will be, for example, robert f. kennedy jr. gets a lot of traction based on his name, but a lot of people when they learn more about his politics, his, you know, vaccine skepticism, then a lot of that support erodes when people actually learn what he stands for as an individual. so, you know, it depend on who the third party candidates are, which state ballots they're actually on, this whole no labels initiative, if they end up fielding a candidate, could factor in as well. so a lot of unknowns when it comes to third party candidates, and depending on who they are, they might draw support from biden or trump. >> susan, real quick, i want to ask you did the polls showing people saying anyone but these two or is it more of a fundamental problem with president biden? >> we find a lot of voters on

both sides saying they wish they had some other choices. that's one reason we see several third-party candidates doing relatively well at this point because there's a lack of enthusiasm from a lot of voters on the choices they have this time around. >> susan page and tia mitchell on this new year's day. thank you both so much. appreciate it. millions of americans are getting a pay raise today as the minimum wage goes up in half of all u.s. states. but some restaurants are already laying people off because of it. we'll get the latest coming up next. sometimes your work shirt needs to be for more than just work.

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millions of americans will get pay raises starting today. minimum wage goes up in about half of all u.s. states in 2024. but for some business owners, that means for expenses and it could mean layoffs. nbc's sam brock has more. >> reporter: after years of fighting for higher wage floor in cities across the country -- >> if we don't get it --

>> reporter: the new year is going to bring a new paycheck for millions of americans with about half of all states and the district of columbia either raising the minimum wage on january 1st or at some point during the year. hawaii's increase will be the largest, while washington will have the highest minimum wage of any state at more than $16 an hour. it's california and fast food workers like anisha williams who are seeing seismic changes after years of struggles. >> i have to pick and choose between rent, groceries, and livelihood. >> reporter: now, the golden state's minimum wage jumps to $16 at the beginning of the year, and for fast food workers, it rises to $20 in april. the mother of six says that is definite progress. >> we protested every which way to prove our point. >> reporter: but businesses are reacting. especially in california. where several pizza hut franchise owners will reportedly

lay off more than a thousand drivers statewide and rely instead on companies like doordash. for mom and pop shops, the owner says there will be longer hours for him. because of the rate hike, that is no longer an option? >> i cannot do it. i can't. i mean, who is going to pay it? i mean, i wouldn't be able to afford to do it. i have to work longer hours to compensate for that. >> reporter: this new reality for many businesses coming as 20 states still rely on the decades-old federal minimum wage of $7.25 in place since 2009. while workers like williams see new opportunities. >> so many people doubting us, and sometimes i can't even believe it, you know? and i'm just so -- i'm so happy. >> reporter: sam brock, nbc news. >> sam, thank you.

and thank you for being with us for these two hours of "ms nbc reports." and happy new year. be sur to check out a new show coming to ms nbc weekends. a wide range of political expertise comes to "the weekend" every saturday and sunday. "the weekend" premiers saturday, january 13th at 8:00 p.m. eastern. but for now, "deadline white house" starts after this break. e house" starts after this break you may be at risk if you're 19 to 64 with certain chronic conditions. or if you're 65 or older. don't pause a moment longer. ask your doctor or pharmacist about getting vaccinated against pneumococcal pneumonia today. liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. that's great. i know, i've bee telling everyone. baby: liberty. oh! baby: liberty. how many people did you tell?

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