countries now are condemning the two dozen attacks by houthi, iran-backed houthi rebels launched in the past weeks. the white house is calling the ongoing attacks illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing adding there is no lawful justification for intentionally targeting civilian shipping and naval vessels. the houthis statement says will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy and free flow of commerce in the nation's critical waterways. that does sound like a very tough warning and they are under pressure to do more to deter iran. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports," "chris jansing reports" starts right now. ♪♪ goods day, i'm chris

jansing. iran suffers its deadliest attack in decades. more than 100 people are dead after twin bombs exploded during a memorial for a revered general. we'll have the latest on that stunning scene and the implications for the entire region and the hostages. plus, with less than two weeks before the first votes are cast for 2024, donald trump's ability to stay on the ballot is still an open question in 19 states. the latest on the uncertainty surrounding critical court cases in colorado and maine. when will the supreme court step in and decide things once and for all? and a surprise at the southern border, just as house republicans show up to spotlight how bad they say things are, illegal crossings plummet to less than half what they were at the end of december. but relief both for president biden and authorities at the border may be short lived. lots to get to today, but we start with the intensity surrounding two hugely

consequential legal cases that will have a major impact on donald trump's presidential campaign. both are right now barrelling toward the supreme court and the time line is getting tight. in maine, trump is now appealing the ruling by secretary of state shanna bellows disqualiing him from the ballot. his court filing calls her, quote a biased decision maker who doesn't have the authority to do what she did. in colorado, the first state to remove trump from the ballot, the push is to get the u.s. supreme court to weigh in. the secretary of state, the colorado republican party, and the plaintiffs themselves all making that request in various court filings. we should note that the deadline to start printing all presidential primary ballots in colorado is this friday. the question is if and when the supreme court might take up one or both cases because the implications go far beyond those two states. according to analysis by "the new york times," 33 states have seen challenges to donald trump's ballot eligibility and

decisions are still pending in 17 of them, including battleground states, arizona, wisconsin, nevada, and all this comes just ahead of the third anniversary of january 6th with the biden campaign just today outlining its key theme that trump's threat to democracy is growing more dire. i want to bring in nbc's garrett haake who is following all of this from washington, harry litman, host of the talking feds podcast. ashley parker is "washington post" senior national political correspondent and an msnbc political analyst. welcome all. happy new year. garrett, give us an update on where these two cases stand and the chances that they could be taken up by the supreme court anytime soon. >> well, chris, it's been notable that you've had officials in both parties in both states practically begging the supreme court to weigh in here. there's a widespread understanding that it will be they who decide donald trump's ballot access across the country, especially in colorado

where trump has yet to appeal. that could happen perhaps as early as today. he's given every indication, his campaign has said he intends to file that appeal. we're waiting to see what the paperwork looks like, if it looks anything like what we've seen in maine, which the trump campaign filed their appeal there last night, it focuses mostly on process. the campaign's lawsuit there, their appeal in maine, says this was a decision that was infected by bias. they say there was a pervasive lack of due process given under trump, and they call it arbitrary, capricious, and characterized by abuse of discretion. they argue that maine's secretary of state was not the right person to make this decision, that she lacked the constitutional authority to do so, and that's filed to a superior court in maine who will be the next to weigh in. even in maine, you heard from the secretary of state this morning suggesting even she wants to see the courts, perhaps the supreme court, weigh in, and settle this issue across the country, chris. >> harry, what do you make of those arguments that the

secretary of state doesn't have the authority to disqualify donald trump and that he was denied due process? . >> they're pretty weak, chris, this is just how maine law works. when garrett sate arbitrary and capricious, that's a special kind of term of art for how the maine courts will review it. what's really important here is you have these two completely different regimes, and for the court, they're going to be confronting a landscape where they're going to be really r concerned about a patch work solution. notice, though, for now he remains on the ballot everywhere. the stay in colorado was designed to force his hand by tomorrow, but since his coparty appealed, this day remains in place so it's not at all clear they have to move, they'll be waiting for trump to make his move perhaps, that could come today, but it doesn't have to.

>> i'm wondering all the things the justices are likely to consider particularly deciing when to take up this case, particularly at this intense time line in colorado where the ballots have been to be printed on friday. is that part of their consideration? >> for sure. right now he remains on. a stay is in place, what colorado supreme court said once a petition is filed, you know, everything freezes. they have their next conference, chris, on friday, and they now have a petition in front of them, but it doesn't include trump. you could imagine, it gets trickier every day. >> what's not so tricky, ashley is we know what the battleground states are. when we look at maine and

colorado, these are not two states that either side is going to lose a lot of sleep over, but as i pointed out, there are battleground states where these kinds of issues are still out there. are you hearing any indication from trump's side in particular but either side about where this may go and how it may turn out? >> well, the trump campaign on the one hand, they -- it takes extra time and resources for them to deal with all of these challenges and appeals that they would prefer to be spending elsewhere, but in the short-term, if you've noticed the statements, he and his campaign are putting out around each of these decisions, they just become another piece in their arsenal to claim fairly or unfairly, that donald trump is being persecuted, that it's a witch hunt, that people are trying to rig the election against him, and so they believe -- so from a sort of politics and messaging

standpoint, at least, if not a practical standpoint, that they can use this to their advantage to press the case that has always worked so well for donald trump, whether it is accurate or not, and oftentimes it's not accurate but this idea that he is a victim and he is taking these arrows as a martyr on behalf of his flock machination. >> is there any sense you're getting from the biden campaign or from democrats, ashley, that this big campaign push to say that donald trump is a threat to democracy is undermined by these court cases, which a lot of folks say let the process play out, let's not take him off the ballot. that is anti-democratic. >> so in democrats i've talked to, they view these things as two separate things. the biden campaign very much believed that is an effective message. it's the message they ran on when they beat trump the first time, that he is an existential threat to democracy, that biden

is fighting for the soul of the nation. we'll see how effective that is this time. you see that in the two speeches biden is preparing to give as we head into the january 6th anniversary. but at the flip side, when you talk to democrats and republicans, including republicans who don't want trump to be the nominee, who don't like him and democrats who certainly don't the, there is a sense that the only way the sort of maga fever breaks, if it does break, is that voters have to decide at the ballot box, and that it is unhelpful if it looks like these things are being decided by the courts, by committee, by anywhere other than the polls on election day. >> so let's go back to the complexity of the legal issues that are out there, if we can for a minute, harry because maine's secretary of state kind of laid that out, the fact that while there are challenges in 17 different states, 17 different states have different election laws. here's what she said. >> it's important to understand

that maine law is unique. now, of course under article 1 of the constitution, the states have the authority to administer elections and states have different processes, different election laws. here in maine under title 21a for the legal geeks out there, the legislature has delegated authority to the secretary of state to ensure that every candidate meets the qualifications of the office they seek before placement on the primary ballot. >> which leads me to the question do you see a ruling that could be made by the supreme court, harry, that would apply to all 50 states respecting essentially 50 different kinds of election law. >> they're going to want to, and the only one that they could do would be a federal law that trump's effort so to speak, everything, a uniform federal solution. we're kind of in this tricky

position because of the strange amalgam in the united states of state and federal law, when it comes to elections, the framers had big roles for the states, and you could imagine under the original scheme, so some states do this, some states do that. i don't think the supreme court will countenance that, and that means it needs to come one a decision that applies to maine with its different procedures, colorado, and maybe the other 17 as well. there are two candidates to be in brief. one is to say the officer word in that amendment doesn't apply to a president. the other is to say it can only be congress that makes the decision. i think those are the most likely ways that the court could state a uniform federal rule and escape the mess of different decisions and determinations on the ballot in different states. >> since it's my first show of 2024, i'll go ahead and put you on the spot here, harry.

when do you think we're going to hear from the supreme court? >> i think sooner rather than later, if not this next conference, the one after, but if you're putting me on the spot, i'll also say they will find a way to do what i've just said. they will find a way to reverse colorado and impose a uniform federal solution. >> wow. okay. well, garrett, harry, ashley, as i do kick off my first show of 2024, can't think of three smarter people to do it with. thank you all for being on. appreciate it. coming up, the mounting death toll in iran after massive explosions at a memorial service, the question of who was behind the blast and who will the iranian government blame. we're back in 60 seconds. lame we're back in 60 seconds

with nurtec odt, i can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. we are following that breaking news out of iran, more than 100 people killed, at least 140 injured after a major blast at a memorial event for a top

iranian general, the first blast struck around 2,000 feet from where soleimani was buried after being killed four years ago in a u.s. drone strike. some officials have already denounced this as a terrorist attack, though no one has claimed responsibility. it comes as the region is on a knife's edge over the killing of the commander of hamas's military wing. that happened in lebanon on tuesday. the death of saleh al-arouri who is also deputy chairman of the group's political bureau is sending a major warning to iran and stoking fears of a wider war. israel has not claimed responsibility for that strike, but multiple sources confirm to nbc news israel was behind the attack, and multiple u.s. officials tell nbc news that israel did not notify the u.s. before the strike. i want to bring in nbc news tehran bureau chief, ali arue

she. what more can you tell us about these deadly blasts? >> reporter: hey, chris. so we know that there were two explosions about ten minute thes apart, and they killed at least 100 people and so far have wounded over 210 people. this took place at a cemetery in iran during a ceremony to mark the death of qasem soleimani, who was killed by a u.s. drone attack, and there were large crowds at this ceremony to mark his death. now, according to officials, the blasts were caused by a terrorist attack, but there have been conflicting reports on exactly what caused the blast. the latest information we have that it was an explosive laden suitcase was detonated remotely, and that's what caused the major amount of injury. a lot of government officials and military officials were inside the cemetery where

soleimani was buried. ordinary people were outside, and they took the brunt of the blast. many women and children were killed. now, as of yet, as you mentioned, nobody's claimed responsibility for this, but officials in the country are starting to point the finger at israel, iran's president raisi said that israel is going to be punished very gravely for these attacks and past attacks. a very senior member of iran's parliament just in the last hour or so said that he's still waiting for more information, but this attack bears all the hallmarks of massad operation. the former head of the irgc also said this was an israeli and american operation and that this would spell the end of the israeli regime. so a lot of saber rattling coming out of iran. they're clearly blaming israel for this attack. just after the attack also

happened, chris, a large crowd of several hundred people showed up at the cemetery, and they were all chanting death to america, death to israel. and obviously this comes at a very sensitive time, you know, on the anniversary of soleimani's death. he was a very revered figure here amongst government and military officials. i just got into town yesterday, chris, and from the airport all the way to the city center were posters of soleimani saying he's the man who had armed palestine. it's a big embarrassment for iran on the anniversary of such a revered figure for such a big terrorist attack to happen, and especially at a time when iran is trying to project a lot of strength. all the events that have happened in gaza have really finished in iran's favor. you know, they've come out on top of this and they were trying to project a lot of strength, but now with this attack, with iranian generals being killed in syria, hamas leader who was very close to tehran getting assassinated yesterday. iran is suddenly starting to

look vulnerable, and the big question is what are they going to do about it. are they actually going to act on all of these threats against israel that they've been making in the last few hours. chris. >> ali arouzi, thank you for that. i want to bring in nbc's josh lederman who reports from tel aviv, and former cia officer mark polly mor op lis. tensions are already soaring in the region. how do you read what we're seeing now? >> first and foremost, the events in iran, i don't assess israel had anything to do with this. this is not the modus operandi of the intelligence services. they are much more expert at targeted killings, not these mass casualty attacks. they sent their message yesterday in beirut with the drone strike on, in essence, hamas's ambassador to hezbollah. i don't think this had anything to do with what happened in iran today.

what's really going to be interesting is how much does iran still continue to blame israel and the united states. do they turn up the heat on the u.s. via the iranian proxies in the region. it also just shows that the region is a tinderbox. the next 24, 48 hours are going to be interesting. >> what's been the reaction there, josh? what can you tell us you're hearing from your sources? >> reporter: israel's government has been publicly very coy about this operation, neither confirming nor denying involvement, but now nbc news can report that israel was behind this assassination in beirut. in fact, multiple u.s. officials as well as a person briefed on the operation tell nbc's courtney kube, dan de luce, and myself, that while the u.s. didn't get a heads-up in advance of this operation, that israel did inform the biden administration in israel time once this operation was underway. and that person who was briefed on this operation tells me this also signals, chris, the start

of an offensive period for israelis whether they're going to be going after these hamas leaders, not just in gaza, not just the west bank but in other parts of the world, which is smk israel's government has long threatened. they will hunt down these officials anywhere they are. that person briefed on the operation also tells me that israel had actually had an opportunity in the strike yesterday to conduct a larger operation that could have killed hezbollah officials as well, but that the israeli government ultimately decided on a smaller scale operation that would be more surgical and only affect hamas officials and that appears to be an effort by the israeli government to avoid ratcheting this up with hezbollah, with other iran-backed military groups, trying to contain this war between israel and hamas, even as they are now going after hamas officials outside this country and the gaza strip, chris. >> what do you think, mark, this does for containing this war to between israel and hamas? >> so i think josh is exactly

right. you know, this was an israeli strike on a palestinian, not on someone from hezbollah. this sends obviously a clear message to the hamas leadership abroad that israel is going to track them down. the chief of massad, the head of shin bad had said this openly. it's a message to iran and hezbollah as well. there's one key point that i think has to be made. there's another constituency here, and that's the israeli public. the israeli intelligence service, the military, that aura of deterrence was shattered after october 7th. they're rebuilding that. this is going to be seen in israel as a very significant development, a high value target strike. last piece on this, chris. let's just remember that saleh al-arouri was a designated global terrorist. he had u.s. blood on his hands. there was a $5 million reward under the state department's rewards for justice program. in the counterterrorism world in the united states, no one's shedding any tears for someone who obviously was on israel's

target list but also someone the u.s. was very interested in as well. >> as we see these escalating tengss, does it complicate things for hostages being held by hamas in gaza. i want to play for you what one of their loved ones told reuters. >> of course this will not help. it will only do the opposite. so i don't know who's in charge and who's giving the order but he's definitely not thinking about the hostage negotiation talks. >> what does it mean for the hostages, for the opportunity for some sort of cease fire or pause that would allow hostages to be released? >> well, certainly it's going to be delayed. hamas has already announced that there is going to be a freeze on the negotiations. the israeli war cabinet when they're presented with targets like this. they do go through a cost benefit analysis on this. so there was clearly an understanding that the benefit

of killing arouri was greater than the cost of delaying the he or she hostage negotiations. i think the hostage issue is going to come back to the center of things. this will just add to the pain of the families. as we've talked about this oent on the show many times, the issue of hostages is an extraordinarily emotional one. the government may take some heat. >> emotional with major political implications depending on how we see this unfold. but marc, to your point literally just got reporting from my friends carol lee, dan de luce, and courtney kube that the u.s. does not believe that israel was behind the attack in iran today. that's according to four current and former u.s. officials. the u.s. was also not responsible, but they add, and let me get your take on this, officials are pointing to similarities to other mass casualty terror attacks from the

likes of isis saying another terror group is the most likely culprit. what do you make of that statement? >> yeah, that's right. you know, isis k is sworn enemies of iran, not a particular surprise that they would be kind of high up on the list, and the iranians have their own internal problems as well. i think it just -- at some point, you know, there will be kind of a u.s. intelligence assessment on this. it will be interesting to see if it differs from what the iranian regime says publicly. clearly, they have more to win in their mind in blaming the u.s. and israel. >> thank you both. good to see you. and right now, the speaker of the house and dozens of his caucus members are visiting the southern border. could this turn up the heat on policy negotiations with the white house? and while record numbers of migrants arrive at the border, house republicans are setting their sights on the secretary of homeland security. the threat of yet another impeachment inquiry.

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the 2024 election fight over immigration is at this hour playing out in realtime with the vast divide between republicans and democrats on full display. you've got house speaker mike johnson leading a group of about 60 republican lawmakers on a visit to the u.s./mexico border following a record breaking number of migrant encounters in

december. that trip intended to amp up the pressure on president biden. speaker johnson posting this side-by-side photo from the border accusing the biden administration of diverting immigrants to anoer location to be out of their camera shot. but we are now learning that border patrol has actually seen a decrease in crossings to begin the new year, and with that decrease, the biden administration is gearing up to reopen several points of entry at the southern border previously closed because there were so many people coming through that they couldn't handle them. now they can. okay, against that backdrop, a bipartisan group of senators is still trying to negotiate a border security deal, not an easy task. >> so we've continued to talk through the break. we're going to continue working this week. we are, you know, still at the table. it's very difficult. it's very hard, and we are going

to do our best to try to come to a conclusion. >> nbc's julia ainsley is tracking the latest at the border for us, nbc's ryan noble reporting from capitol hill, and nbc's kelly o'donnell is at the white house. so julia, what are the latest numbers telling us about the current situation at the border? >> they're telling us that that picture that the speaker posted wasn't just a ploy by the biden administration. right there in the del rio sector in texas, in december there were some days where 3,000 migrants crossed just in that sector. there were only 2,500 migrants who crossed the border illegally in a single day on new year's day. we understand those numbers have continued. that's coming from a previous 21-day average of over 8,000. there were some days in december where they saw more than 12,000 border crossings. they are seeing a decrease. dhs officials i've spoken to say we're not taking a victory lap. we think this might be because of the holiday. it might be because the cartels, the smugglers, the people who

move these migrants pushed so many people through in december, now they're going back, getting more resources, getting more migrants as they would push them up again and more groups through central america and mexico and the united states. they're certainly not breathing a sigh of relief. they can say now that no border patrol sector is over its capacity. and previously in that very sector where speaker johnson is they were at three times their capacity. certainly seeing a dip, but we don't think it will hold. >> ryan, so obviously the republicans have gone to the border. i think they got there last night. they're going to do a press conference about 90 minutes from now. what's their message? >> well, they really want to hone in on this idea that the administration needs to come to the table and adopt a long list of provisions that they think need to be changed as it relates to border policy, especially if they want to get ukraine aid and aid to israel over the finish line, and of course we know that there have been ongoing negotiations between senate republicans and senate democrats in the administration over the

supplemental package that has all three of these planks associated with it, but house republicans really haven't been involved in that process, and part of the reason that they're going to the border is because they want to emphasize how bad they think the situation is there and that they don't believe that the proposals presented by the biden administration will be enough to stem the tide of migrants coming into the united states. now, we caught up with the senate majority leader chuck schumer earlier today. he said that he believes the negotiations are making real progress and that he believes a bipartisan deal can get done. schumer also did throw a little bit of shade at the speaker saying it was nice that they went down there for essentially a photo op but that the real negotiating has to take place here in washington between republicans and democrats and that the only way that policy changes are actually going to happen is if they're done through a bipartisan process. he's calling on the speaker to be a part of that. >> okay, kelly, tell us a little bit more about the white house, how they see this trip, and how

they see the ongoing negotiations. we just heard, you know, chris murphy yesterday with an understatement about how difficult this all is. >> and the mere fact that you have that negotiation with all its implicit problems and complications. you have the speaker staging his events, all of that shines a light on how this is a significant problem in terms of governance for president biden and his administration. it is politically a problem as well within his own party, there are democrats concerned about where this will land, if there's going to be too much policy giving a way to republicans in that negotiation, not enough protecting some of the principles that many democrats want to maintain. at the same time, the president certainly understands in an election year and we're now there, it is january, of course, that there are problems for him politically with this issue because it has been a nagging problem as julia explained, a bit of good news does not mean

that will hold, and the president was asked about this and acknowledged there is work to do. he responded when he returned from his holiday time talking to reporters on the south lawn. >> are you going to do anything about the southern border, mr. president? >> about what? >> the southern border, are you going to do anything about it, the record number of migrants? >> we've got to do something. >> so acknowledging there are problems there. there is work to do there, and even taking that question given all of the, as you know so well, chris, it's difficult to hear. it was late at night, but he knew a border question is one that he wanted to comment on knowing the speaker would be making that trip today, knowing negotiations are ongoing, and that it is a persistent issue, one that has been very difficult for his ais set a policy and enforcement that they feel comfortable with and that

to the public would appear to be working, chris. >> and one that the public cares about. ryan, as all of that is playing out at the border, house republicans are also going to start impeachment proceedings against the homeland security secretary alejandro mayorkas. i think this is next week. what can you tell us about that? >> this is something that republican, particularly the right wing of the party have been promising for almost a day, they won the house majority back in 2022. they've been very critical of al alejandro mayorkas, to the point they believe it rises to the level of a high crime and misdemeanor, and therefore he should be one of the first cabinet members impeached in 100 years. listen to how they're messaging this move towards impeaching alejandro mayorkas. this is congressman bob good of virginia. >> this is persistent.

it's consistent and written by this administration. we've got to take control of our border. we shouldn't be funding the biden administration's prerogatives until they start taking care of making our borders secure. >> it's slow tonight compared to how it's been over the recent weeks because they knew that members of congress, republican members of congress were coming here. >> that was andy biggs you heard from first and then bob good of virginia. they're parroting what you saw from the speaker in terms of the biden administration controlling the flow because they believe that the house republicans were going to be there along the border. but they really do lay a lot of this blame at the feet of alejandro mayorkas, and that's why they're going through with this. in many ways this became a situation where the speaker, mike johnson was almost forced to take this step, the conservative flank of his party was insistent upon it, and that's why it was necessary to take this step. of course it's important to keep in mind, chris, this is just the

first stage. they're going to begin these proceedings, could lead to articles of impeachment. they are going to be down to only a two-seat majority in the house of representatives in the next coming weeks because another member of the republican caucus is going to step down. there's no guarantee that an impeachment, articles of impeachment against mayorkas will pass, and then of course there's almost no chance that he would be convicted in a senate trial by a two-thirds majority, especially with a democratic majority. so a lot of this is just political theater, but it's one that the speaker believes is necessary to feed the republican base. >> ryan nobles, julia ainsley, kelly o'donnell, thanks to all of you. not a single vote has been cast for president in 2024, but already it has gotten nasty. who is going after whom, and anyway, is it already too little too late? we'll explain that next. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. reports"c it's a pretty big deal. kinda like me. order in the subway app today.

the stage is set in iowa, and it's a small one. nikki haley and ron desantis are the only two candidates who will be on the debate stage one week from today and taking shots at donald trump for skipping the event. instead, he'll counter program with a fox town hall. haley writes, as the debate stage continues to shrink, it's getting harder for donald trump to hide. a desantis aide says trump is, quote, scared to get on the stage adding even gavin newsom had the courage to stand on the stage to debate his own failed

record against ron desantis. nbc's vaughn hillyard is on the ground in iowa, matt gorman is a republican strategist, former senior communications adviser to tim scott's presidential campaign, and former aide to jeb bush and mitt romney. good to see you guys. vaughn, i understand that desantis got into a pretty testy exchange with a voter about how he approaches trump. what did you see and hear? >> reporter: right, chris, i think it's notable that that voter says that in 13 days from now he's going to caucus for ron desantis, but where his frustration lied with was the strategy that the florida governor has deployed in the last year in drawing some policy contrasts with donald trump or suggesting that donald trump equals losses for the republican party, but in the records of that voter there, this was a moment in which he feels like ron desantis needs to change up his strategy and go more directly at the behavior of donald trump and the consequences that that has for

the republican party. i want to let you hear a little bit of me talking to that man after the -- you're going to hear my questioning of ron desantis on another question right after the event in which he ignored a question of mine that pertained to come this summer if donald trump is found guilty of one of these felony charges and convicted, if we get to the convention, the republican convention in july, would ron desantis still stand with him? because if republicans think that this january and february with this primary season is chaotic, well, if donald trump is convicted at some point the summer before the convention, they could be looking at a lot more chaos. take a listen. >> if trump is found guilty and wins the nomination, would you stand behind him at the convention? >> i mean, he's got to go after him. >> what does going after him mean? >> i mean, you know, let's -- let's push trump into this debate, you know, why do they let him get away with not debating.

push him into it. >> do you feel like desantis is letting trump off the hook? >> don't you? i do. i do, yeah. trump needs to be at those debates. to me trump thinks he's got it in the bag. >> reporter: that gentleman lives about 15 miles down the road from here, chris, and two specific examples that he brought up as to why ron desantis has not attacked donald trump for bashing incessantly john mccain and for also not attacking donald trump on the way that he refers to women directly referencing his use of the word horse face to describe one woman particularly. >> all right, so matt, look, trump is never going to debate, right? due respect to that gentleman what reflect what is a lot of people feel, they want to hear all the candidates on the stage. donald trump didn't feel he needed to debate. so without the star attraction there, is there anything that haley and desantis can do? what can they hope to get out of

this? >> a couple of things. you're right, he has no incentive to debate. he's up by at least 10 or so points in new hampshire. trump could be a part of this debate. if i were cnn who's hosting the debate, i would have somebody watching that fox town hall and i would have, i assume trump will talk about nicki and ron, and i would have somebody ready to got moderators with a question referencing what donald trump just said and asking them both about it. i would assume vice versa should happen too. they might not be actually on the stage, but at the end of the day, iowa is going to be about surpassing expectations for any of these candidates. it's not a matter of certainly trump seems to be the one who's going to win this, but does every candidate do as well as they claim they can and get that momentum going in new hampshire. >> so matt, donald trump is hoping that a big win in iowa will be the knockout blow that forces his opponents out of the

race, if not in actuality, then, you know, they're not going to have any money. they're not going to have any support. this morning chris christie said he is staying in through at least april which is when trump's d.c. trial could start. here's what he said. >> anybody who thinks i'm getting out of this race, they're crazy. all this stuff is going to happen and eventually i think a large number of republican voters are going to say this is destined to reelect joe biden. that's something that i think is one of the only things that ignites most republicans, they don't want to reelect joe biden. i'm going to continue to fight this as the only person who's taking him on directly and nikki can pray for his vice presidential nomination. >> is it possible, do you think, matt, for donald trump to get a victory in iowa that's so substantial it does for all practical purposes no matter what a chris christie says, knocks everybody else out of the race, if they're not as some people believe out of it already? >> no, i don't. i think we have at least with

nikki haley in new hampshire, as of right now, it's within ten points, which is a pretty close lead we've seen so far in this campaign. again, these aren't necessarily mathematical equations. for example, ron desantis doesn't do well in iowa and drops out the next day, a lot of his votes will go to trump, but you're right, things can happen down the line if trump says something at trial or does something, does the math change a little bit. there's no incentive right now for anyone to get out before the voters vote and until you feel like you have really exhausted every option. usually that involves a lack of funds somehow. >> matt gorman, vaughn hillyard, guys, thank you so much. and right after the break, we'll get to the developing story out of new jersey where an imam was shot outside of a mosque. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. honestly? i couldn't afford to get sick. i want to be there for this one. i can't if i'm sick. pneumococcal pneumonia is a potentially serious bacterial lung disease.

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muslims. it landed in imam belonging to the mosque. at last check he's in critical condition as a result of the shooting. the governor just identifying him as a short time ago, hasan shareef. people in the area heartbroken and saddened to hear of the shooting. they have described him as a peaceful man, a good man, friendly, a community leader in this area. here's more from a church leader just next door. take a listen. >> i was in awe, like i was shocked, imam, he's a peaceful guy that i know. we need to stop it. it's very sad. it's like humans just killing each other. i don't understand. it's really sad, and as a mother, it's painful to me. you know, so we need to really curb the gun violence. >> reporter: the motive remains unclear. the investigation still very much underway. actually just in the last hour or so, they pushed us back. they put up this caution tape,

and we have seen a pretty stark increase in the police presence on the ground. police at all levels, a muslim advocacy group says in the two months following the start of the israel-hamas war, they have seen a 172% increase in requests for help and report of bias incidents. this all coming at a time where there's increased tension as a result of the ongoing violence in the middle east. i spoke with one woman who was in tears as she was entering the mosque earlier today to say prayer. she says at times she feels scared to even leave her home. thattorney general for new jersey saying in a statement, at a time when bias incidents against members of the muslim community are on the rise, we know this act of gun violence will heighten fears and concerns in our state. this investigation is ongoing, but at this time, we do not have any information suggesting the crime was motivated by bias. chris, there's a news conference scheduled at 4:30 at the local prosecutor's office. >> emilie ikeda, thank you for that. in the next hour of "chris

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