right now on "andrea mitchell reports," another tragic school shooting in america. this time in perry, iowa, just 40 miles from des moines.

we'll have a live report in moments. there is no further danger to the public. the community is safe. we're just now working backwards, trying to figure out everything that happened. please be patient with us so that we can talk with these victims and their families and try to figure out what happened. also, the middle east on high alert today, with iran and there proxy militias vowing retaliation, despite the twin bombings that killed 84 people at a memorial yesterday for the country's top general. he'd been assassinated by the trump organization four years ago. as we learned that a mother and a service member trapped in gaza when the war broke out have been rescued. the biden administration tried to contain this with secretary blinken heading to the region tonight. and this hour, inside analysis

from two former cia directors, leon panetta and john brennan. and you trump legal team asks the justices to overturn the decision banning him from that state's primary ballot. and good day, i'm andrea mitchell in washington, with the breaking news out of iowa. another tragedy at a high school, where police responded this morning to the scene of an active shooting. we know that at least three people were injured, while the gunman is dead from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. that's according to law enforcement officials who have been briefed on the matter. this all happened in perry, iowa, 45 minutes outside of des moines, as students were returning to school for their first day of classes after the christmas break. joining us now, ali vitale lay. and jonathan dienst.

what do we know, ali, another tragic shooting in middle america, iowa? >> reporter: that's right exactly right, andrea, the first day home from the winter break, we caught up on the scene, this is 45 minutes away from des moines, as you mentioned. what we learned from the informations officer, this shooting happened before the start of school. law enforcement got the first call 7:37 this morning. they say officers were on the scene seven minutes later responding to this. they were mum on the other details. most of the specifics are coming from our own team here at nbc and their law enforcement sources. still, i was able to catch up with a mom here who was able to reunite with her two kids. this is what she told me this morning felt like for her. what was it like getting that phone call? >> actually, it was a text message this morning from my daughter and it was absolutely horrifying. yes.

one of the worst moments of my entire life. the best phone call i got was saying they were okay. i'm glad they were okay. >> reporter: of course, that mom there, andrea, feeling so grateful that her kids were okay. they were being checked out by medics just to make sure they were okay, any minor injuries they may have sustained inside the school. one of the other things the mother said to me, she is shocked this could hear in this country. what we hear covering these tragic that happen all too often, we hear parents stunned it's happening into their community and days into the new year, covering school shootings. >> it's beyond belief. it keeps happening over and over again. jonathan, what are you hearing from law enforcement? >> reporter: yeah, the federal, state and local law enforcement officials briefed on the matter tell myself and tom winter that

this is a lone gunman believed to be a student. and that shooter is dead from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. and these sources tell us, again, this information is preliminary and subject to change, but they tell us at least three people have been shot inside that school. two of them are students. one of them an administrator, perhaps the principal. and that principal shot in the head, as was one of the other students. and we're told that one of those two students who were shot is in very critical condition. there were two scenes as described to us in and around that school area. one a dumpster near an entrance where one of the victims was found. and inside the school, at least one of the other shooting scenes. additional ambulances and helicopters were being called in to assist, but police felt they got the school and the situation under control. and they did a whole k9 search of that school, we're told.

and that there was no other threat. some additional emergency vehicles were later turned around, as you see an enormous scene to begin with, in terms of the initial law enforcement response. again, police are investigating, the shooter may have been a student at that school. they have not released much information about who the shooter is. they said they want to deal with notifying victims' families first, before briefing the press, so, we do expect a briefing later this afternoon, with more details, but at their briefing earlier, they said multiple victims and that there's no longer a threat. again, multiple law enforcement sources tell us, the shooter is dead from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. at least three others were shot, two students, one principal, and that one of the students is in very critical condition.

andrea. >> jonathan dienst, ali vitali, we expect the next briefing to be at 3:00 p.m. and new calls for revenge, iran vowing retaliation after nearly 100 people were killed in twin bombings yesterday in the bloodiest attack in 44 years. the islamic state is claiming responsibility. angry crowds are chanting death to america, death to israel. and also in beirut, a top deputy killed in a drone strike tuesday. israel has not confirmed or denied the role but several sources say israel informed the u.s. during the strike and that it was an israeli-targeted hit. the other in iran was not. israel's intelligence agency vowing to hunt down every hamas member involved in october 7th,

no matter where they are. so they're not denying that they have a policy of targeting assassinations. another iranian group, hezbollah which controls much of lebanon as part of the government there is calling for revenge, saying the assassination will not go unpunished. secretary of state antony blinken heading into the region tonight with hopes of further escalation that was a previously planned trip. we're joined by nbc news bureau chief ali arouzi. ali, they're not staying quiet after that hideous attack. so unusual for iran. i can't recall anything like that. this the top commander in the al quds force that was killed by the trump administration in 2020. so it does not appear to anyone in the national security field that this has been israel, they

do targeted assassinations very successfully, as iran knows, but the wide assumption is going to be, isn't it, that iran and potentially the u.s. is involved? >> reporter: that's right, andrea. just before we came on air there's a lot of new information coming in so the story keeps evolving. let me tell you the iranian side of the story first. as you remember yesterday, they said that explosion was caused by two suitcases laden with explosives that were detonated remotely. now, state tv is saying that investigators here in iran believe that suicide bombers probably carried out the attack yesterday for him. and surveillance footage from the roof of the commemoration at the martyrs cemetery clearly showed a male suicide bomber

detonating explosives. adding that the second blast probably came from another suicide bomber but they're still trying to determine that. the report also said that the bomber probably chose the location because it couldn't get inside the security perimeter for the commemoration. now, right after this report came out, andrea, islamic state -- the islamic state group's official telegram channel, they suddenly claimed responsibility for the attack. they said that two suicide bombers with explosive belts debt ton natured themselves ten minute as part in the middle of the crowd and killed almost 100 people and they took great pride in the fact that they had killed 100 shias. now, obviously, as you'll remember, almost immediately after the attack, yesterday, iranian officials were pointing the finger at israel. saying this was an israeli/american operation and

they were going to seek revenge against them. as you quite rightly mentioned this doesn't fit the israeli m.o. they have done targeted assassinations. they've taken out nuclear scientists, political figures and done it with lethal precision and done it with mass casualty-type attacks but nonetheless, the iranians keep saying it's the israelis and they're going to get revenge on the israelis and haven't mentioned anything about the islamic group. >> ali arouzi, it's valuable to have you there. thank you for being in tehran today. and we head to beirut, lebanon, of course where nbc news chief international correspondent keir simmons is here. kier, certainly setting the stage, hezbollah, another branch of iranian-backed group, if had the parliament there, they're

running in lebanon. >> reporter: that's right, andrea. and at the same time, i think it's interesting to note, and former israeli government officials have pointed out to me today, that the leader of hezbollah has had multiple opportunities to launch a full-scale war, if you like, with israel. in the months since the october 7th massacre inside of israel. and he hasn't done it despite a fiery speech last year. and again, now, making a speech describing the assassination of that hamas leader here in lebanon as a crime that will not go unpunished. and those former israeli officials suggesting to me that it's not -- that it should be noted that that attack here happened after those months of they're not being a dramatic escalation on israel's northern border. and that no one from hezbollah was hit during that strike.

so, what i think that tells us is that the israelis will have made a kind of arisk calculation, if you like, about whether this was possible. certainly, it's clear, the israelis' long history of targeting their enemies anywhere in the world continues. but lebanon is a place where they feel more able to act, if you like. and i think some other places where hamas is, for example in qatar. >> and, kier, in terms of any more rocket fire, from the north from hezbollah, towards israel, there have been exchanges, but as you point out it's been contained pretty much. >> reporter: that's right. i mean, that doesn't mean, though, of course, that there won't be something happen. i mean, every day, there's high tension, there's a risk that something happens that leaves both sides or one side feeling it has to act. and they did have almost ten hezbollah fighters killed in

clashes with the israelis in the last 24 hours. so there are clashes. but it seems to be being maintained. we would just say, the houthis' attacks on shipping. we are just hearing now they used a one-way unmanned sea drone to try to attack ships across israel on the other side there in the red sea. that is having real impact and, again that is a group backed by iran. >> kier, such a volatile situation. thank you. thanks very much. after a short break, we'll take a deeper dive with all of this with former defense secretary and cia director leon panetta about the growing tensions in the middle east. we'll be back on "andrea mitchell reports," only on msnbc. y on msnbc. and recalibrated my car's advanced safety system. ♪ acoustic rock music ♪ >> woman: safelite is the one i trust.

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houthis and other iranian-backed groups raising alarms far beyond the borders, joining us now, former cia director and former secretary of defense leon panetta. mr. secretary, good to see you again. happy new year to you. but it's not a happy new year in the middle east. who benefits the most from stoking these tensions between iran and israel? >> first of all, happy new year to you, andrea, and good to be on the show. i don't think there's any question that the events that we're seeing right now in the middle east do escalate the danger that, you know, something could happen here. probably more because of miscalculation. because you've got so many of these events going on, the killing of a hamas leader in beirut, obviously, raises the concerns with hezbollah.

the killing of 84 people in iran, raises the issue of what iran may or may not do. there's also the presence of iranian warships in the red sea and the continuing attacks on commercial ships in the red sea. and then after that the continuing attacks on u.s. forces in syria and iraq. and all of that, it just raises the possibility that some kind of miscalculation will take place. and you could have a dramatic escalation here. in this war, in the middle east. >> there are signs that the white house and the uk and other allies may be preparing to do something, something more kinetic, because they don't think deterrence has worked so far. they put out a joint statement before yesterday and it sounded very much like a final warning. >> well, you know, i'm sure that

because there are these continuing threats, particularly now with regards to commercial shipping and the economic consequences that can occur as a result of that, and the fact that there are growing houthi attacks on those ships, i think it's very important for the united states and our allies to make very clear that they are going to take action if necessary, certainly, to protect american lives. but also to protect our economic interests as well. so, i think -- i think both the united states and our allies have to think very seriously about creating some very clear deterrence here, that would send a signal to those that would attempt to attack us, that they're going to pay a price. >> have you balanced that, you've sat in these meetings, you've made these big decisions at the cia, at the pentagon,

before that as white house chief of staff, so the u.s. and the uk in particular, talking about something that might involve going into yemen with some sort of attack against the houthis. and that situation with the houthis rebels and the saudis were getting close to a cease-fire and a peace agreement. all of these other things are in play. how do you balance whether or not this will deter or further escalate iran? the last thing you want is a war with iran, not its proxies? >> well, there's no question that there are risks involved. but, you know, we have a war going on right now. and there are a lot of attacks that are occurring. and the most important thing right now is that we make very clear that those attacks have to stop. and that the united states and the allies will take action to make sure that those attacks do

stop. it's a situation where the united states and our allies have to make very clear that we will not just simply stand back and take these attacks without some kind of response. is there a danger of escalation? of course. but at the same time, i think there's a worse message that's sent if we do nothing, and basically stand back and allow these attacks to take place. so, in order to send a very clear message here, i think the united states and our allies have to take very clear action to protect ourselves. >> in fact, the commander of another iran-backed group in iraq was reportedly killed today in baghdad. so that group is saying, and we don't know this, that he was killed by a u.s. strike. is the u.s. getting drawn more

into these regional conflicts? there have been u.s. casualties by iran-backed militias. >> well, i understand these kinds of attacks are going to take place and the united states has to respond, particularly when u.s. forces are the target of these attacks. and we have to -- we have a responsibility and a duty to make sure that we protect u.s. lives. in that region. look, i don't think anybody iran, the united states, the houthis, hezbollah, i don't think they're interested in going into a full-scale war. they'll pay a heavy price if we go into a full-scale war. at the same time, it is very clear that as they continue to make these kinds of targeted attacks. one kind or another, that the united states and our allies cannot simply stand by. and not take action.

so, is this a tense moment? you bet it is. is there a danger of escalation in the middle east? you bet there's a real danger. particularly now. but at the same time, we have a responsibility to send a clear message that the united states and our allies are not going to simply stand by and allow these attacks to take place without a response. >> and, finally, a senior official said today that secretary blinken is heading to the region today. and we're at a peak moment of tension between this administration and israel over the progress of the war. and the civilian casualties. we've got israeli cabinet members saying things that are being -- you know, broadly criticized from the podium at the state department just yesterday, saying things about

forcing gazans out which is supposedly against u.s. and the palestinians talking about the possibility of a two-state solution. and at the same time, alliances against iran, mutual interests, but real tension. how do they navigate that? >> well, there's no question it's a pivotal moment. and you know, at the same time, i think there is the real possibility here that israel, having really almost completed the initial pse of this war will very much resort to what the unid ates wants which is an approach of targeted attacks going after the leadership of hamas. i think in the end, that's what they've got to do. if they really are interested in trying to cripple hamas and the

ability to conduct attacks against israel. so, there is some hope here, that you could have a transition in the war toward a more targeted approach to israel that would allow for humanitarian aid to go into gaza. and i think the other approach is what happens the day after, it is critical, despite some of the comments that have been made from israel, it's critical to have an answer, as to what we do, in order to govern gaza. and the answer to that has to be that we put together some kind of palestinian capability here, to govern. that's going to take a lot of work by our arab allies, as well as the united states. and israel. and the palestinians to be able to develop what kind of approach can we use in gaza that can restore some element of governing and provide security.

i think that ought to be a major focus of the secretary's trip to israel. >> leon panetta, as always, it's great to have you with us. thank you very much. >> good to be with you. and coming up, supreme spotlight, former president trump's political future could be in the hands of a high court, when the justices meet tomorrow. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." this is msnbc. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter and ready for what's next. (vo) achieve enterprise intelligence. it's your vision, it's your verizon.

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a new report just out from house democrats on the oversight committee shows that former president trump received $7.8 million in payments from foreign governments to his businesses during the time he was in the white house. china was the leading spender, saudi arabia, qatar and kuwait paid millions also to various trump businesses, mostly hotels. according to the democrats that released this report today. joining us now nbc news capitol hill responsibility ryan nobles you were at that briefing, margaret mccray and author of "i alone can fix it." ryan, the report says this sounds like the emollients issue. what are they revealing about

this? because there's a quid pro quo here in a couple of the cases. >> that's right, andrea, what democrats have painfully laid out in this 156-page report is the volume of money that flowed from foreign adversaries directly to businesses that were directly involved with former president donald trump at a time when he was president of the united states. this covers a two-year period in his presidency, where they say close to $8 million flowed from this countries into the coffers of trump-aligned businesses. of course, trump, at that point did not remove or step down or step away from his business or put them into a blind trust or anything along those lines. he stepped away from day-to-day activities from the business, but still aware of the work being done in that private sector. and it was his family members still running the business at the time. what house democrats say is a direct violation of the

emollients clause which specifically states if a president was able to receive any benefit from a foreign government of any kind, that has to be approved by congress. that's not a process that donald trump went through to continue to allow the money to flow into the family's coffers. it's unclear, what if anything, will come from the report, of course, house republicans maintain the report, and they'd have to take the steps referring to the justice department or something along those lines. what house democrats want to do is get this into the public sphere and put meat on the bones of accusations that trump was benefitting from foreign governments during his presidency. the other point i'd make, this only covers two years. they'd like to see the full four years of the trump presidency, but house republicans are preventing them from pushing that investigation forward. >> phil, as someone who has covered donald trump and the

businesses and policy of all of this, perhaps it's a coincidence that they're putting this out now while the republicans on oversight are gearing up their investigation into the biden family and any money, so far, that has not been established at all between president biden and miss son hunter. >> yeah, andrea, first of all, we shouldn't equate what is known in the facts about trump and his businesses and while he was president of the united states with the investigation under way about the bidens. they're different topics on different scales and different times, et cetera. but i do think what democrats are trying to do is show, at the time when republicans are investigating hunter biden's businesses and any ties to the president before he took office, they're trying to show that donald trump has a whole lot of baggage, too. that his personal businesses were taking in all of this money from international governments. from international interests, at the time when he was president. and we knew this in realtime, of

course, because we saw foreign governments booking up banquets at the trump hotel in washington, dignitaries staying at the hotel, in an effort to curry favor with the president and his white house. but to see it all documented in this report today and the depth and breadth of it is an important reminder to the public. and this is, i think, the goal of the democrats of just the scale of this potential conflict of interest. >> and phil and ryan, no one is digging into the fact that while they were still in office, jared kushner, january 6th while his father-in-law was still president in saudi arabia ended up with $2 million in hedge funds. barbara, switching gears, the supreme court is being asked to

overturn the decision. that ruling would mark the first time in the history of the that the judiciary is preventing voters from casting ballots for the leading presidential candidate. what's your reaction to, not the politics of this, but the legal filing? their claim is there was no insurrection, number one. and that he can't be removed under the 14th amendment because he is not an officer of the united states. or the president of the united states. >> yes, this brief contains, i think, some of the arguments that we expected. arguments that, number one, the people should decide, of course, the people enacted the rules that are in the constitution, so that argument is kind of nonsense. but, you know, the fact that the president is not an officer of the united states. that january 6 was not an insurrection, even if it was, he didn't engage in it, all of those things i think we expected. there's one argument in there that is novel, and that is this,

perhaps designed to appeal to the textualists on the supreme court, the language of the 14th amendment only says that an insurrectionist cannot hold the office of the united states. it does not say the person may not run for office or even be elected to office. so what he says is, i should stay on the ballot, i should be elected. and the only time this can kick in after i'm elected, i couldn't be sworn in. so that would really be an absurd outcome here, that donald trump could be elected and on january 25th, be deemed ineligible to serve, and his vice president would take his place. so i'm hopeful that that argument would be seen for the absurdity that it is. >> ryan nobles, barbara mcquade, phil, thanks to all of you. and the iranian-backed interfering with shipping lanes

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escalating tensions across the wider middle east are raising those fears we've been talking about, fears of a wider war, stemming from the conflict, of course, between israel and hamas, that it could expand, as

secretary of state antony blinken is leaving for the region tonight. in iran, a double bombing yesterday killing 100 people as they marked the death four years ago of the top revolutionary guard leader qasem sola mani assassinated by a drone strike. in iran, the leader of hezbollah has vowed revenge for the death of a top hamas leader by an israeli strike in beirut on tuesday. joining us now, former cia director john brennan. john brennan, happy new year, good to see you. but i want to start with that double bothing in iran. not the m.o. as we've been discussing with israel. israel has denied it. the u.s. has said israel is not involved. certainly, the islamic state group, i.s.i.s., is claiming responsibility. but iranian officials are pointing the finger at u.s. and israel. what's your analysis and can back channel talks calm this down? >> as you have said and as leon

panetta has said, this is not the israeli m.o. by all accounts there are two individuals who detonated explosives in a crowd of civilians. clearly, this is the work of either i.s.i.s. or opposition groups that have operated in that area for a number of years. so, i think it's important for there to be a recognition that neither israel or united states were involved. they have enemies, those that have opposed bureaucracy in tehran, but i.s.i.s. which operates on its borders probably the most likely perpetrators of these attacks. >> i want to point out that matt miller the spokesperson at the state department has just announced that trip that secretary of state blinken will be taking. i'll be on that trip. he's going to a large number of countries, they, of course, don't announce that as you know

from your service just before. but he is going to turkey and crete, also visiting jordan, qatar, uae, saudi arabia, israel, the west bank and egypt. so it's a very comprehensive trip. we know that the focus will be, obviously, the immediate crisis, trying to stop this from spreading. but also the day after, if there is a day after, the israel/hamas war, what happens who is in gaza, and there's a big dispute now between israel and u.s. over that which really broke out in the public yesterday with israeli ministers, right-wing ministers, talking about expelling the palestinians from gaza. and the u.s. saying that is irresponsible and not the u.s. policy or israel's policy. i guess the question is whether the palestinian authority can be bit up, or whether these arab countries, you know them so well, you were stationed in saudi arabia for quite some time, and ran the cia. and, of course, with the

national security council. so, will those arab leaders step up to the rebuilding of gaza and to some sort of governance, if hamas is governing and military leadership is there? >> well, andrea, i think we're still a long way for the day after because i think the conflict is going on for quite some time. what i think secretary of state blinken is doing in the trip he needs to talk to the regional players and acts, israelis and others to talk about what is going to come when we do hit that day after. and it's clear that the palestinians really need to play a central role in whatever keep of government structure is going to be put in place in gaza, in the years to come. and also the security formula that will be put into place. but palestinians cannot do it alone. they have to work with israelis and other states. i'm hoping that secretary blinken is able to impress upon the various regional players that there needs to be an effort

to try to prevent this crisis from escalating, despite the fact we've had strikes outside of gaza. this is something that just demonstrates how combustible the region is. and i do think it's the united states policy to prevent any further escalation. >> is deterrence going to work? it hasn't so far, there's pressure on the president to do more. and 94 you're told there's a new coalition that the uk and u.s. are considering taking action, perhaps launching strikes in yemen itself against the houthis there? >> well, the houthis have a rather than commendable arsenal of weapons that they've used against shipping in the red sea and clearly this is of tremendous international concn. the united states has a significant military presence in the region. and i think the houthis demonstrated determition to carry out these strikes. thankfully, mos of them have been prevented so far. but the houthis do have cruise missiles, and maritime drones and aerial drones.

i think the u.s. and uk and others are going to take actions to mitigate the dangers that the houthis pose. i do think we have information where the houthi weapons are located and we may be seeing further action in the coming days. >> finally the administration and israel, netanyahu, in particular, have been on a sort of seasaw in terms of relationship with allies and support. but questions as to whether israel is listening to u.s. pressure. to scale back israeli casualties and to do more targeted efforts and wrap it up more quickly than israel wants to. do you see signs that israel is going to pull back at all, change tactics, because netanyahu is still talking about months and months ahead? >> well, i think the israelis goring to be there for months and months to come. i do think the israeli announcement that they're removing at least four or five

brigades from gaza, that's a good sign. that's close to 20,000 troops or so but the israelis seem to be concentrating on southern gaza in carrying out the strikes. i do think they're trying to be presis, but unfortunately, the civilian casual this targeting hams leaders as well as hamas weapons systems and arsenals, the threshold of civilian casualties i think really needs to be lowered which is what tony blinken i think is talking to the israelis about and continue to impress upon them but there needs to be a reduction in civilians, men, women and children in gaza who are unfortunately bearing the brunt of this rather ruthless israeli pummeling of gaza in effort to destroy hamas' military capabilities. >> and also pressuring for less aggressive actions by settlers in the west bank where tensions are rising as well. john brennan, thank you very much. >> thanks, andrea. and rescuers in japan are

searching for survivors from earthquakes that rocked the country this week. the powerful tremors and a tsunami as well have killed at least 84 people and dozen more are still missing. nbc's jackie mayer fraher is there. >> reporter: andrea, you see the tarm put down here, the road just ends, it's broken and collapsed. the road has disintegrated. look at the house. and before that, the cars have been tossed around, showing how powerful the earthquake was that hit on new year's day. across this prefecture and the peninsula, the areas hardest hit by the earthquakes, there are thousands of rescue personnel trying to reach the people they know trapped in the rubble of collapsed homes.

it's a race against time, experts say after 72 hours, the chance of a person's survival begins to drop. government officials say at least 84 people have been killed by the earthquakes. there have been hundreds of aftershocks since. and those have complicated relief efforts, too. aid is beginning to trickle in, but the roads are still damaged. and this is an isolated area. there are problems with communications. with food. with warmth, with the temperature dropping here. and also water and electricity, there are tens of thousands of homes that still don't have it. officials are also warning people to stay away from their homes because they say there's still a high high risk of anoth strong earthquake to hit this area. for the time being, though, disaster officials and japan's prime minister are saying the priority really is to try to save as many people as they can. andrea. >> and our thanks to you, janis mackey frayer in the earthquake

zone right there in japan. and now the home stretch, republican candidates in iowa including front runner donald trump head to head, heading to the hawkeye state. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc.

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donald trump is taking on nikki haley focuses on the hot button immigration issue, a sign that the campaign is beginning to take it seriously. another recent ad by a pro-trump super pac dubbed the former south carolina governor and former trump u.n. ambassador high tax haley. in new hampshire yesterday, haley hit back. >> president trump's given me some attention these days.

i'm kind of flattered. but every bit of that commercial and the temper tantrums that he's been putting out every day, every bit of it is a lie. if you've got to lie to win, you don't deserve to win. it's that simple. [ applause ] >> joining me now is former republican congressman from florida, david jolly, and former obama white house press secretary robert gibbs. welcome both. david jolly, so what do we make of this trump, haley back and forth, just 11 days from the iowa caucuses, new hampshire a week after that? >> yeah, andrea, what we should take from it is it really is a two-person race now. ron desantis really needs to change the narrative in iowa if he intends to stay in this race, but failure to do something dramatic by ron desantis in iowa, this really is a two-person race and nikki haley is surging in new hampshire. as we talked how the expectations are set for haley and desantis, and how they need

to perform, the truth is there's an expectation on donald trump as well, and that expectation is that he does not lose a single state. haley believes she might be able to top donald trump in new hampshire and that would be a real change in the former president's armor, and and that's why you see donald trump going right at nikki haley. >> what's the challenge for the biden campaign now? they've moved their january 6th speech near valley forge, pennsylvania, to january 5th, so it's really about january 6th, but it's going to be an january 5th because they're expecting that snowstorm. this is the big theme of democracy, the spirit of america. it's a theme that the president feels helped him win in 2020. >> well, and i think important for the president to be out there on the campaign trail, one, setting the narrative, and two, really giving anxious democrats reason to feel good about how joined the campaign is, how much he's going to put the choice with the likely

nominee in front of people and run a campaign that really sets up that ultimate choice in november. >> and so robert, what about the other issues that he's been trying to stress, the economy. he's got the immigration problem at the border, which is becoming a major problem. he's got the middle east war, which is hurting him, according to most polling with young people, with some people of color. i mean, he's losing some of his core constituencies. one poll showed him falling behind donald trump with hispanics. >> yeah, look, i think this is going to be a long campaign. it's going to be a tough slog for each and every voter on both sides. i think you'll see the president and his team broaden out the frame that they talk about tomorrow in valley forge to include individual freedoms like reproductive choice and undoubtedly speak to the economy. all eyes are going to be on iowa and new hampshire to see what, if anything, can trip up donald

trump on his path to the nomination because if somebody doesn't meet him in one of those first two states, it's really hard to imagine how he loses this nomination. >> and when we talk about him losing the nomination, what about the head to head? david jolly, the president is challenged with four major cases, 91 indictments. going to see legal action next week in the appeals court as well as the closing arguments in his new york fraud case, and with every legal action and with potentially what's happened on the 14th amendment, he gets more popular with the republican base. >> that certainly has helped him. we also see a republican field who has refused to take on donald trump on his criminality, and they refuse to draw a contrast even on policy, so look, i think if he is the nominee, we will hear him talk about retribution and the deep state. we probably won't hear much on

policy, and when he does, we really can't believe what he says, particularly about his own record. how does that contrast with joe biden? i think joe biden has a way to talk about protecting democracy as a way to provide for an economy for all people, education, health care, and protection of your own suffrage and right to vote. and look, for joe biden, i think he needs to lean into the economy. it's morning in america again. more people will go to work tomorrow than ever before. home ownership at an all-time high. the stock markets and retirement accounts are at an all-time high. inflation is coming down. if donald trump really wants to take on his record versus joe biden, when you do it in truthful terms, in truthful facts, i think joe biden has a good record to put in front of the former president. >> and robert gibbs, there are some democrats who are getting increasingly concerned by the polling and think that the president may be waiting too long and do you see any signs of any shake-up in the campaign

team? >> no, and look, i think, you know, look, perhaps get nervous and it's just part of our dna, it's going to be a long campaigning, but quite frankly, the campaign is going to be joined by making this choice, and i think him having this speech and generating that choice will begin to coalesce democrats and strengthen the president's numbers. >> robert gibbs, david jolly, thanks to you both. and that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." i ll be on assignment this week and next as i travel wh secretary of state antony blinken when he visits t middle east, including jordan, qatar, turkey, the uae, saudi arabia, israel, the west bank and egypt. so it's a long trip, but i'll be reporting. so follow the show on social media @mitchellreports and you can rewatch the best parts of our show anytime now on youtube. just go to msnbc.com/andrea.