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the world on january 15th. >> seven days left before iowa, and the gop field is warning voters, your first chance could be your last chance. >> i don't think donald trump ultimately can win an election. these polls are garbage. >> if donald trump wins iowa and new hampshire, it's over, guys. >> reminding iowans, they set the pace. >> iowa knows how to do this. you tell the country where we should go. >> but did those warnings come too late to knock out the runaway favorite? >> we are leading by a lot, but you have to go out and vote. we have to put big numbers up, really big numbers. >> no one knows until the first ballots are cast, so with the days dwindling, now is the time for closing arguments. we have reporters all over iowa with what voters are thinking and the sharpest campaign minds on what the candidates are promising. what will work? this is "how to win 2024." good to be with you, i'm katy

tur in for chris jansing, the iowa caucuses are one week from today. let us remind you, a caucus is an unruly and unpredictable contest. if someone is able to pull off an upset, it could change the momentum heading into new hampshire, but before the candidates can get there, they have to get through iowa's notorious 99. there's just one problem, snow. we've got reporters all over the state covering this final frenzied rush of campaigning. let's begin with nbc's garrett haake live in des moines with the big story lines to watch. so garrett, you've done this dance many, many times before. bring us to iowa and what it looks like this time around. >> reporter: and, katy, i have been covering the caucuses here since 2012, and the fact that it is now snowing here is probably one of the only things that's normal about this republican caucus in iowa.

we have republican front runner in donald trump who pulled ahead in a significant lead in this state nationally in about april of last year, and has never looked back. in some ways, that appears to have lessened the feelings of consequence around this race. i don't know that there's any serious political professional who thinks donald trump can be beat in this state in this caucus, but the battle for second place remains incredibly important. can nikki haley or ron desantis come in a close second or at least a clear second. can they establish some degree of momentum that might prolong this race through new hampshire and beyond or are we looking at a very short race to the nomination with dominant donald trump and a muddled remainder of the field. the big question also to me is donald trump's biggest enemy still going to be donald trump and his legal cases? >> we're seeing a test of that this week. he's basically not here except for a town hall on fox news on wednesday night. he's appearing in courtrooms voluntarily, taking himself off the campaign trail, something that would be unheard of in previous caucuses as both

perhaps a sign of the messaging value he thinks there is in fighting against what he calls a two-tiered system of justice, and also a show of confidence in his lead here. can anything that iowa voters can tell us monday night change that dynamic. those are all questions i'm looking at as we get into the final spread. >> they are big and important questions. garrett haake, thank you very much. let's go to nbc's vaughn hillyard who's covering the trump campaign from urbandale. vaughn, donald trump is in some ways treating this like he's an incumbent, and he hasn't exactly been in iowa all that much. are you seeing signs, though, in the final moments that the campaign might be getting jittery? >> reporter: no, not at this point. it's full-on confidence now. they're looking to win this caucus by at least 12 percentage points which would break the record for a republican caucus winner ever. this is the campaign headquarters for donald trump. they're doing the work on behalf of the candidate who is not here. he's only been here five days over the last month, katy, and

as garrett said, he has no more rallies planned in the state until this weekend, and these are the first snowflakes here i should note in des moines. we expect a couple of days of snow ahead. come caucus night at 7:00 when the caucus doors open, katy, we're looking at a negative 9 degree windchill. the dynamics of the caucus are always interesting but when you're talking about donald trump supporters, we hear time and again from not only those actual voters that are showing up at his rallies but also his campaign team, and quite frankly polling data points this out. the most enthusiastic supporters are donald trump's. >> i was getting a little sad that i was not in iowa because i do love des moines. but then you said negative 9 degree windchill, and i don't feel so bad any longer. vaughn hillyard, thank you very much. let's talk about nikki haley, she's surging in new hampshire, which is the second place to vote. does she have a shot at at least second place in iowa. if she does, could that alone be

enough to change the narrative in this race? nbc's ali vitali is in sioux city. didn't nikki haley miss a campaign event this morning because of the snow? >> reporter: that's exactly right. you know you're always welcome to come join me. i'll get extra hand warmers for you. you can be on the trail with me in iowa or new hampshire. nikki haley, the fact that she couldn't make the first campaign event today, just a sign of the reality of the weather, especially for the candidates who are practicing the same game of safety that all of our teams are, all of their staff and organizers are, and certainly this morning was no exception to that, but look, for nikki haley, she's been able to for the last few months ride a national wave of momentum. she's been able to not hit trump outright, at least not all the time, but she has leveraged some criticisms of him, including this recently in the last few days. watch. >> he was really good at

breaking things. he just wasn't good at fixing them. and now we look at the fact, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him. >> reporter: haley there stating that chaos follows trump, but she has always had to play this delicate dance in terms of the way that she takes on the former president who of course has her very much in his sights in attack ads, especially in new hampshire, but also, she served in his administration. so she really has had to walk that fine line with her criticism and the tone and tenor with which she lobs them at the front runner. for haley, the best case scenario here is a second place finish that allows her to spring board into new hampshire with more momentum. my understanding is maybe they're not there yet but they're hoping for some kind of surge in the last stretch before night. she has a campaign apparatus, not just in iowa and new

hampshire, but she has the ability to take it down the line, in south carolina. more that she has in her back pocket than other campaigns, say ron desantis. >> since you're in sioux city, i'm going to shout out la juanita, some of the best food in the country. ron desantis has staked his entire campaign on iowa so much so that voters there are asking him if a loss means he's going to drop out. nbc's dasha burns joins us from des moines as well. tell me about these questions that voters have for ron desantis? >> reporter: i'm at the vivek ramaswamy headquarters, we'll talk about his campaign in a moment. here's the problem for florida governor ron desantis, because he staked so much on iowa, he's gotten the endorsement of the iowa governor, the endorsement

of bob vander plaats, he has moved his campaign staff. because of all of that, if he does not have a strong showing in iowa, if he doesn't come in at least second and a strong second at that, that is going to make the argument for moving forward extremely difficult for his campaign. so the possibility that he might not come in second, that he could potentially come in third. some people are wondering if that could happen is a big problem for him. and take a listen to what he's saying about some of those rumors and some of those questions. >> anybody saying somehow, like, we're only doing that, that's just a flat out lie. you know, you have to be built for the long haul. we've got a great organization in these other early states. there's always these things they try to do in caucuses, where they try to plant this rumor, all of that stuff. i think iowans know that's typical scuttlebutt. >> reporter: you know what, katy, when i asked him in our

interview, if he could name another state that he might be able to win, he couldn't name one. he said, vaguely, we'll win many states, he couldn't specify another state after iowa that he could actually win, again, another problem for the florida governor. >> let me ask you about vivek ramaswamy since you're at his headquarters, he's gone to all 99 counties twice, but he's not polling in anything right now. what is the ramaswamy team hope to get out of the caucus on monday? >> reporter: they're in major crunch mode right now. let me just show you around here really quickly, the team is opening up these swag boxes here. they're going to be spending that to precinct captains to voters all across the state. they've got a bunch of volunteers, 30 to 40 folks in and out of headquarters today, making calls to voters, getting people out, as you mentioned, the weather is a huge challenge for anyone that's not named donald trump. trump's voters very dedicated. we've been to those rallies where people line up early in

the morning, waiting for hours. it's folks like vivek ramaswamy who need to get in touch with the voters and make sure they turn out. he has done the double grassley, visited all 99 counties twice, but he still has not cracked single digits here. he's saying he's going to shock the world on caucus night. he's also saying he's going to stay in this for the long haul. take a listen. >> i'm staying all the way through november 2024 of this year, and i'm staying all the way through january of 2033. i'm going to leave that white house after two terms and we revive this country. we're not making the sacrifice lightly, and i'm not one to do something halfheartedly. >> reporter: again, the numbers aren't there for that just yet, and of course we don't have a crystal ball. iowa breaks late. iowa voters are notoriously very, they like to see everybody. they like to choose last minute. they like to shake the hands. we have seen a lot of folks at

his events. the problem is a lot of the voters coming to the ramaswamy events are also thinking about caucusing for former president trump. so that's a challenge for ramaswamy. he's made himself in the image of trump. a lot of voters are saying why can't i go for the real thing. >> caucuses can be unruly and unpredictable, you don't know until they start what's going to happen. dasha burns, thank you very much. the messages are changing, voting for donald trump is voting for a loser. is that the strategy to beat him? what voters say next. arexvy is a vaccine used to prevent lower respiratory disease from rsv in people 60 years and older. rsv can be serious for those over 60, including those with asthma, diabetes, copd, and certain other conditions. but i'm protected. arexvy is proven to be over 82% effective in preventing lower respiratory disease from rsv and over 94% effective

in those with these health conditions. arexvy does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients. those with weakened immune systems may have a lower response to the vaccine. the most common side effects are injection site pain, fatigue, muscle pain, headache, and joint pain. i chose arexvy. rsv? make it arexvy. nearly every poll shows and has shown donald trump leading iowa by a mile, even after the chaos of the pandemic. even after january 6th. even after four criminal indictments, including allegations of trying to overturn the constitution and putting national security at risk by hoarding classified

documents. but for some iowa voters, republicans, none of that matters. >> was there ever a point in this cycle where you were thinking about voting for somebody else or were you always set on trump? >> just trump. there's really nobody else i'm setting on anything. like i honestly just want to vote for him. like if he were to get out of this election, i wouldn't vote for anybody else. >> is there any other candidate who you would consider? >> no. >> reporter: why not? >> they can't get the job done that president trump can get done because we have so much to clean up. we have so much to restore. and he holds the same values as we do. and he's already established in his life, and he's out there fighting for us. >> reporter: do you think there's any candidate on the republican side that could beat trump? >> i do not. i really do not because they're all kind of piggy backing off of

what he's pushing. and they're saying, well, why don't i try and see if it works for me this time. >> joining us is jennifer palmieri, former white house communications director under president obama, former communications director for hillary for america and msnbc political analyst, and claire mccaskill, former u.s. senator of missouri, both co hosts of msnbc's "how to win 2024" podcast. you heard the voters. loyal seems like an understatement. they're not even thinking or considering anybody else. if you're running against donald trump in the republican primary, jen, how do you cut through that? >> well, i think, you know, let me lay out a scenario that no one has adopted, a strategy nobody adopted for i think how you could have made iowa matter and win iowa, beat trump in iowa. hey did not go for trump in

2016, right, ted cruz won the caucuses then. you could have gone to iowa and said, look, this state has always chosen our best leaders, and this state always had doubts about donald trump, and you were right to have those doubts. and maybe he was a good president for the time that he was in office, as nikki haley said yesterday, i will note, yesterday, not a year ago, that he's good at breaking things, not good at fixing things. there was a time for him. now is the time to move on and lean on iowa. iowans take this job very seriously to ferret out the best person and lean on them to make that hard choice and to leave trump behind. i think if you had done that, you might be able to start something here that could eventually overturn trump. but, you know, the iowa caucuses were created by party leaders decades ago to try to ferret out the best nominee that could get

support for the biggest broad base of voters in the country, right? and trump kind of blew up that model eight years ago. so it's relevant. i'm very interested to see what happens. i do think it matters. it tells us a lot about volatility in the electorate, but i'm not sure that this doesn't matter the way it did eight years ago or at a different time. >> you have experienced the caucus. claire, fortunately for you, you have only had to deal with primaries, which are a little bit more straightforward. i want to jump off from what jen was saying, which was it wasn't a year ago that these candidates started going after donald trump and his electability. it's just the past few days. for ron desantis, maybe it's been a week. i'm still struggling to understand what took so long, and why they thought they could get away with running against each other, and not the front runner for the past six months. >> well, first, katy, i've got to say that i have suffered through iowa, campaigning for dick gephart, i know how cold

iowa is the first week of january, and i've knocked on those doors, and i've sat in those offices and tried to figure out the ones, the twos, and the threes, and who are we going to get to show up. that's really what this caucus thing is about, who's going to show up. usually in cold bad weather, who's going to show up, and the only way you beat somebody is by convincing people that he's not the right guy. you don't beat somebody who starts out as the incumbent by ignoring him, and thinking, oh, they're just going to like me better somehow. you've got to frontally go after the front runner, and by the way, ted cruz was going after trump with a hammer and claws when he won iowa in 2016. so it was naive, i think, i don't get it. if you aren't going to go after him, why start two days ahead of time. it makes absolutely no sense to me. i think the only way anybody could have competed against trump, is one, campaigning

against him, and two, finding voters that aren't showing up at trump rallies. those folks with those hats on. they're not going to say they're for anybody else. there's people in their living rooms that are persuadable, that didn't vote for trump in 2016. and some who didn't even vote for him in 2020 that you could get to caucus, if you'd send the right message. they never have really been comfortable going after trump and that's why they're going to lose and lose badly. >> that's a good point. they're not budging those voters. that's not the entire electorate. when you talk about voting turnout, you have a big swath of the state and the country that doesn't show up to vote. so if you are nikki haley in this last week, and you see your poll numbers in new hampshire looking not so bad, what do you do -- what do you need to do to at least come in second? does it matter coming in second in iowa? is that enough for her, jen? >> i think it does. i mean, i think that, you know, this is -- when i think about what's going to happen next

monday, trump is acting as an incumbent, it's not as if the rest of america is looking to iowa to say let us know what you think of these candidates. they know what they think of trump, and he has a broad base of support. what could topple him is a combination of he is more vulnerable than we thought, and then imagine that, imagine if haley comes in second. she might do that just based off of momentum, you know, iowans like candidates that break late. they've had a good long look at desantis. my understanding is desantis had a good operation on the ground, that matters a lot, ask pete buttigieg, ask barack obama about that. but still, it seems like haley is eclipsing him just in terms of being the candidate on the move. if she comes in second, he doesn't get the 12 percentage point win that vaughn hillyard cited as what they were hoping to get. then he can be vulnerable coming into new hampshire, and my god, the longest week in politics,

it's actually eight days so it is a long week, is the time between the iowa caucuses and the new hampshire primary. again, i think this is all unlikely. but we can't take anything for granted or assume we know how this is going to turn out. so, you know, it could be in those eight days, there could be a lot of volatility and difficulty for trump, if chris christie piles on, and we're going to unite behind haley, he's our best chance to beat trump. you could see where nikki coming in second in new hampshire with an unexpected trump not getting the turn out that he wanted. maybe people feel like they don't need to turn out for him. for the biden campaign, it's interesting to see how many people turn out to caucus for trump. are republicans motivated, to be turning out, even if minus 9 degree weather or is trump -- is

inertia setting in? and so you could see where new hampshire could get exciting. >> claire, how is the biden team watching all of this, and do they want to go up against anybody not named donald trump? do they want to go up against nikki haley or ron desantis or chris christie? >> you know, i don't know that they -- i mean, obviously i think trump is the weakest of these candidates for many reasons. it's not very often in american history a guy runs for president who's facing prison. this is a new thing. i mean, every normal has been broken. and i think joe biden's strength is normal. good guy, normal, wants everything to be steady and stable for not just our country, but for the people who live in this country. so i think the contrast is better with trump versus biden. but biden's got to, i think, there's been some pushing, and i

think it's right that they've got to get agile, they've got to begin to be -- i see him being more aggressive. he was more aggressive in his comments today in south carolina. he was more aggressive in his comments on friday, commemorating the insurrection and the horrific things that occurred around that. i think he's got to go after. he's got to do exactly what nikki haley and ron desantis refused to do. he's got to go after it, and he's got to make sure he reminds america every single turn that this isn't about whether or not he's perfect. this is about whether or not you want somebody who doesn't respect the rule of law or even your vote as president of the united states. >> claire mccaskill, jennifer palmieri, thank you very much the how to win 2024 podcast, hosted by claire and jen. scan the qr code on your screen to listen. it's right there. up next, in a state full of evangelical voters, what does

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to win the republican caucus in iowa, you need to win evangelicals. normally, that means candidates bending themselves into their image, as we're seeing with ron desantis. but in the case of donald trump, it seems evangelicals are the ones changing remaking

themselves in his image. what that looks like in a moment, first, though, here's steve kornacki with the latest numbers. >> all right. one week away, can you believe this? one week away until the 2024 iowa caucuses. let's take a look at the state of play in iowa. some of the things we're going to be looking for on caucus night. let's start as a point of reference here with the last competitive republican caucuses in iowa. 2016 was the last one, and remember, donald trump actually lost iowa in 2016. it was ted cruz who won, and trump barely held off marco rubio for second. trump finished third in iowa to lead off the 2016 race, primaries and caucuses, so take a look at the map from 16. where are we going to be looking, and what are we looking for on caucus night a week from now, we're going to look at trump's weakest places in the state. weakest in 2016, has the story changed in 2024. here's a perfect example. i just circled a county, sioux county, northwest iowa, one of

the most republican in the country, deeply religious, heavily evangelical. this was donald trump's worst county of all 99 in iowa, it was his worst county in the 2016 caucuses. he got 11% of the vote. ted cruz won it, and that was a big reason why donald trump didn't win iowa in 2016. it was the evangelical vote. he did okay. he got 22% with evangelicals in 2016. ted cruz out did him, out organized him. ted cruz got 34% of the evangelical vote. that's why cruz won iowa in 2016. you see rubio was competitive as well. evangelicals were a weak spot for trump in 2016 in the caucuses, so by the way, were the suburbs, you know, suburbs of des moines, a few other places of high concentrations of college graduates, but evangelicals made up 2/3 of the caucus electorate in 2016. you see trump lost by double digits. how does it look right now. this is our most recently poll

of caucus goers in iowa among evangelicals. trump, from that 12 point loss in 2016, we've got him up 2-1 over ron desantis, outright majority in our most recent poll. desantis who pushed effort into iowa got endorsement from one of the state's most influential evangelical leaders. evangelicals were and are supposed to be one of the core bedrock pillars of the desantis effort in iowa. he's going to need on caucus night to do much better among evangelicals. another group to keep in mind, the suburbs, here's independent voters in our most recent poll. nikki haley at 23%, in second, but doing better with independents than she is with other groups. we'll look on caucus night, dallas county, west of des moines, running up big numbers there, if she's going to do better than expected in iowa, those are the kinds of places you're going to look for. overall, this was the most recent poll. trump at 61%. here's a shameless plug, stay

tuned later this week, we will have the final results of a new final "des moines register" nbc poll in iowa so if there has been some change, if there are some lately breaking shifts in this race, maybe we'll see them there right before the caucuses one week from tonight. >> we will be watching. joining us to explain what in the world is happening of evangelicals, the president of iowa faith and freedom coalition, and republican national committee men for iowa. really good to have you. i know your group has endorsed ron desantis. what do you see his chances as next monday? >> my group that i work with, iowa faith and supreme coalition, we have not endorsed any candidate for president. you're probably thinking about the family leader. i never predict the caucus until the very end because you don't know about those late changes. but i think at this point in time, it's probably fairly safe to say that trump is going to win probably pretty substantially. if you look at the des moines

register poll that you're talking about, if you look at the people most committed to trump, or he's their first choice, not going to move, 70% of them. whereas nikki haley and desantis, i think, maybe only 35% of their people are in rock solid place. so, you know, things could change, but at this point, i think it's trump that he's going to win by a substantial margin on caucus night. >> "the new york times" has reporting about evangelicals and i mentioned at the top, this idea that candidates bend toward evangelicals, pitch themselves as a leader in line with their believes and values. donald trump has bent evangelicals in his direction. they're saying that politics has become the master identity for evangelical voters. what is donald trump's straw in how is he able to do that? >> i think his big draw is they remember what he did, they know that he produced on his promises, like moving from tel aviv to jerusalem from appointing supreme court

justices, appellate court justices, you know, trying to secure the border, starting to build a wall. so they remember what he did, unlike a lot of prior republican presidents who talk the talk but didn't walk the walk, you know, so they remember that. so they're looking for somebody to fight this far left woke agenda, and i think a lot of them see him as being the best equipped to fight back against this radical agenda. not that the others wouldn't, i don't think they're quite convinced of that yet. >> i wonder if there's a line for evangelical voters with donald trump. i know we've seen, you're talking about all the things he's delivered on. there was chaos during the pandemic, might be disagreement about policy but a lot of the policy is what donald trump enacted when he was president. there's the national security issues with the classified documents, there's january 6th, there's all of these trials currently against him. there's also his own words and messaging, i want to play a little bit of an ad that he put out on his own truth social

site. he compares himself or calls himself the messiah, essentially. let's listen. >> and on june 14th, 1946, god looked down on his planned paradise and said i need a care taker, so god gave us trump, god said, i need somebody willing to get up before dawn, fix this country, work all day, fight the marxist, eat supper, then go to the oval office and stay past midnight at a meeting of the heads of state. so god made trump. >> i mean, he's calling himself the messiah, is that okay among evangelicals? do you think that's okay? >> i think with evangelicals this is the deal, they're not looking to elect a pastor, they're not looking to elect the rabbi. they're not looking to elect a religious leader but they're looking for somebody that will fight for religious principles, religious freedom and i think religious freedom is a big issue. if you look at the family that

lived west of the des moines area, they lost their business solely because they refused to allow two men to get married at their facility, and so i think a lot of people see with the radical woke agenda of the far left and so their fear is if the democrats have complete control of the federal government, the religious could be a thing of the past. again, they're not looking for perfection. in fact, i think if we're looking for a perfect candidate, we better look in the mirror and run ourselves. they're looking for somebody that is going to fight like the dickins to get somebody that's going to fight back and stand tall for the religious principals for the values which the country was founded on. >> why have the other candidates have not been able to convince they are able to do that, some arguably more conservative than donald trump, that's what ron desantis is saying. why are they not able to convince voters to take a chance on them? >> they know what trump did, and

maybe they're not totally convinced that they're willing to fight the good fight. and not that they would have the same personality that donald trump has because that's unique as we know. but they're not totally convinced that when push comes to shove, with all of the forces of the left are bearing down on them that they're going to actually push hard against it. i think that's the challenge that the others have, but they haven't made that case yet. >> steve, thank you very much for joining us. i really appreciate your insight. >> thank you, thanks. former rnc chairman, and msnbc political analyst, michael steele, he has a new show called "the weekend", and it premiers this saturday on msnbc. looking forward to that, michael. >> thank you. >> it's a loyalty, as we saw with the voters we played sound, as steve tried to explain. it's an unbreakable loyalty among republican voters who now identify themselves as evangelicals if they support trump. we're seeing more of that according to "the new york

times" and analysis that they've done. how do you -- what do you do in the face of that. if you are a republican running against donald trump, is there anything you can do to break that, some might call it fever. >> no, not really. look, if you don't want to take the medicine to heal yourself from the fever, then you'll continue with the fever. that's just how this plays itself out. you have to want to move off of trump. you have to want to go to a different place. it was very interesting to listen to my former colleague, national committeeman scheffler, i worked with steve and iowa leadership. we butted heads when i tried to, you know, take iowa off of that first perch for a reason, to sort of more reflectively look at the country. he speaks to a real truth inside the gop. they see trump as the avatar of

their desire to go after as he put it, you know, woke left agenda that's, you know, con assuming of the country. understanding the narrative is important, and the narrative is we like where we are. and we're okay with that. we're okay with all the things that comes with that. so you rationalize and you compromise those very same principles that you say are so important because the political agenda is going to get accomplished. you asked the right question, i'm sorry. you asked the right question about the politics sort of wagging the dog, if you will. >> i want to ask about the narrative. president biden is arguably much more moderate than progress. progressives are not so happy with president biden, what is the narrative that these voters are hearing? what is their fear in regards to president biden, and is it rooted in reality?

>> it's not so much rooted in reality. if any of them paid any attention to joe biden, and his legislative leadership, and his agenda as vice president, and certainly as president, they know that he is not a darling of the far left progressive. he is not aoc in a business suit, if you will. so it's -- that truth is obvious, but what is a better, stronger narrative is the umbrella thought of owning the libs. anyone and everyone gets placed underneath that particular umbrella for the purposes of furthering that narrative against, you know, who were once our political opponents that we may disagree on policy like obama care who are now our political enemies, who are trying to, you know, groom our children, marry men and women, and, you know, do all of these,

i mean, marry men to men and women to women, to do all of these things that are counter cultural for them, anticultural for them, which is really the animating idea, and then of course how that ripples out into other aspects that we see play out, critical race theory, book burning and bans and other things that feed that particular progressive narrative. the one thing about the gop is that they are holistic in their approach, always and forever. they connect every dot along the way. that is something democrats are not very good at is connecting the dots for the voters along the way to show the value of the proposition they're making. republicans will always go to dot one, and remind you of dot one, even when they're talking about dot 27 so that you see that connection. >> michael steele, michael, thank you very much. and michael, symone sanders townsend and alicia menendez is

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there is a small town 100 miles outside of des moines in a county donald trump barely won in the 2016 caucus. that is where we find nbc news correspondent priscilla thompson. she's at skis sandwich shop in carroll, iowa. donald trump barely won that county. what are they telling you about 2024, and what can you tell us about what it means not just for this primary season and this caucus that's coming up but for the general election. >> reporter: yeah, katy, we are crisscrossing the state today talking to voters. right now we're at ski's sandwich shop during the lunch hour. i want to answer your question by giving you a chance to talk to a voter, the co-owner here, troy phipps. you're a republican, never caucused before, and not caucusing this year. >> because trump's the nominee, not much point in doing it.

>> reporter: even though there are other candidates in the race? >> correct. >> reporter: do you have a candidate you like this cycle? >> not particularly, no. >> reporter: tell me more about that. what are your key issues? >> inflation is a big one, and especially owning a restaurant, it's killing us, and the border. >> reporter: and when you look at these candidates, there's no one that you feel like is best equipped to handle that? >> not really, i wouldn't say. i would hope we would get a little bit away from what seems to be this toxic norm that we've had, but i don't know if any of the current candidates are really got it. >> reporter: you told me you will vote in the general election, if it's biden versus trump, who will you vote for? >> i will hold my nose and vote for trump. >> reporter: tell me what do you think of trump. what do you like or not like? >> i like his policies. i'm not a fan of him, if that makes sense. >> reporter: i see, i see. but so far this cycle, no one

else has been able to convince you otherwise? >> no. >> reporter: and i will tell you, katy, we're hearing that from a lot of voters. i was an hour away southeast of here earlier today, and the trump supporters were die hard, they were going to caucus for him. but we spoke to other folks who said they were undecided, still, even at this point. one woman had caucused for trump in 2016 and said she hasn't chosen a candidate yet this cycle. we found a lot of folks who said they would not be caucusing, and democrats who said if it were a biden versus nikki haley contest, they would consider giving nikki haley a look. katy. >> priscilla thompson, thank you very much. from conspiracy theorists, sharing what they've seen the last six months on the trail in iowa. stay with us. ith us steve? with a laundry detergent. (♪♪) gain flings. seriously good scent.

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now she's a lot more active, she's able to join us on our adventures. and we're all able to do things as a family. ♪ get started at betterforthem.com the rule used to be that in order to win iowa, you needed to visit all 99 of its counties, the full grassley as it's known. vivek ramaswamy is so bought in on the strategy, he's done the double grassley, visiting all 99 twice. he's barely registering in the polls. donald trump, meanwhile, has barely done anything in iowa, and he's by far the leader. then again, donald trump didn't do it in 2016, the full grassley, and he lost. so what actually matters. let's go to two campaign embeds, they have done untold grassleys,

donald trump has solidified his support. has the support behind the people who don't want donald trump solidified behind one candidate, and if so, who is it? >> reporter: the short answer, katy, is no. candidates like ron desantis, nikki haley, and vivek ramaswamy all appear to be competing for second place here in the hawk eye state, and so many voters that we've spoken with at these events say if they are open to an alternative to the former president, they're often stacking those candidates up against trump. i want you to hear from one iowan about what he's looking for in an alternative to donald trump. take a listen. >> i need nikki haley to talk about nikki haley. i don't care what she thinks of trump. i don't care what she thinks of desantis. i want to hear her talk about her. i want to see negative political commercials banned. the chaos, it just got to be to

the point where it was so detrimental that wasn't worth it. and as a trump supporter, having to defend some of the stupid things he said, i couldn't do it anymore. >> reporter: and katy with just a week until the first in the nation caucuses here in iowa, voters like that say they are ready to move on from donald trump. but we have not yet seen republicans here in the state coalesce around a single alternative to the former president. i want to bring in alex here. >> reporter: we have been living here since july, and it's becoming increasingly clear that so many americans live in disparate realities. we have long heard conspiracy theories like former president donald trump really won the 2020 election or that january 6th was somehow an inside job or a product of government entrapment, but those two are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to conspiracy theories. back in october, another

conspiracy theory started to circulate online and that was that president biden isn't really in charge of the white house, that obama was giving biden directions through an ear piece, so we went to a trump rally, and we spoke to trump supporters and asked them who's in charge. take a listen to what they had to say. >> somebody's running the country other than biden. i mean, he can't even spell his own name, you know. >> reporter: who do you think that is? >> i think it's obama. to be honest with you. i really do. >> i think it's the deep state. they talk about how come barack obama didn't move out of washington, d.c., you know, where's valerie jarett. >> i still think nancy pelosi has got her hand in there, i do. kamala harris, clintons, by god, it's the clintons. >> reporter: just a couple of days after those conversations, donald trump got up on the stage in new hampshire and repeated that claim that obama is biden's boss, and that really speaks to

the feedback loop that we're seeing here. a conspiracy theory will bubble up online, former president trump will repeat it, legitimize it, and catalyze it in the ears and eyes of supporters. >> thank you for bringing that to us. we don't often get to talk about the conspiracies, and how they permeate among donald trump's voters. thank you and good luck reporting out there. get some hats if you can. and that is "how to win 2024," don't go anywhere, we're going to start with breaking news on donald trump's legal battles. what did one of his closest allies say to jack smith? don't go anywhere.

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