>> good to be with you, i'm

katie -- . could we be at the beginning of the end of the gop race for president? or, will a power greater than politics intervene? the des moines register just

released its final poll before monday's caucus. and while donald trump holds a historic lead, there is some slippage in his support, something he probably wanted to address in person today, but could not, as a blizzard forced him to cancel both of his rallies. ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce politics to bomb cyclone. this is what it looks like in iowa. and this is what it feels like in iowa. that is, unless you're hit by a gust. the national weather service says wind chills are expected to fall between negative 35 and negative 45 degrees through tuesday. so cold, it can only take ten minutes to get frostbite. so cold, it could chill even the hottest of passions. with the caucus on monday night, these historically bad temperatures threaten everyone in the race. so whose voters will be die

hard enough to go out? nikki haley's team is seeing a boost in the polls. does enthusiasm for her match it? will ron desantis's 30 million in ground game and organization pay off? the assumption is always that trump has the most ardent supporters, but if they also assume that trump has it in the bag, will some decide to stay home? we have real insight on these questions, with real numbers from the gold standard in campaign polling. the person who always gets it right. so let's get right to her. joining us now is the pollster behind what's considered, again, the gold standard in polling in iowa, president and founder of seltzer and company, j. ann

seltzer. and it is good to have you. top line numbers, donald trump still leads by a historic margin. explain that, and explain the slippage that you are seeing? >> -- well his numbers surely are ones to be proud of. he's 48% of the first choice votes. but that's down from our december poll, which had him at 51%. and really, it's only a few percentage points, but they are symbolic down there. he was above 50%, and that is hard for anybody to catch. he is now showing some slippage, some shrinkage as you say, and that may take some psychological toll on his campaign. >> well let me ask you about the weather, because the weather really is the more powerful force here. and it's going to affect every single candidate. who is at risk, mostly from the weather? >> well, all of us. i've been snowed in at home for two days, and therefore i am at risk, if i must say. i think you have to look at the enthusiasm factor. and while nikki haley has moved into second place since the first time that she's held that on her own, there is under lying weakness, in terms of enthusiasm for her, that half

of her supporters consider themselves only mildly enthusiastic, or not that enthusiastic. and again, that's going to hit her campaign in the emotional heart, which is that she's got second place, and she can claim it on her own, but there is weakness in terms of whether her supporters are going to have enough enthusiasm, enough gusto, enough bravado to go out into the cold and take a stand for her. >> why does it matter, the caucus so much, the enthusiasm for a second place, second choice? >> well, in this case, the business of second choice is between haley and desantis. and they are close, they are within a few percentage points of each other. so if desantis says he has more than half of his supporters describing themselves as extremely or very enthusiastic, haley has, it's not half that, but it's close to just half of that.

again, it is perhaps foretelling of an inability to realize the potential that our poll is picking up. >> democrats, independents like haley. this is an interesting case, because there is no democratic caucus going on right now, so democrats are free to walk in, register as a republican, and caucus. are you seeing any movement among democrats in the state to potentially be a spoiler for someone like donald trump? >> well, i think that is -- the idea is there. the data doesn't prove out that's going to be much of a spoiler. his position is so commanding. but it is interesting that nikki haley's supporters draw from the people who are currently registered independent, or currently registered as democrat. and that's a sizeable portion of who she's up to. some of those people would not have caucused with the gop before. so, it's also, there is an intimidation factor, how are they going to feel about it?

it just, and -- it's questions about whether her supporters will get out and deliver for her. >> what is driving this intense loyalty we see for donald trump? what specifically in iowa? can you point to any one thing? >> no, i think it's 100 things. i think if you talk to trump supporters, they will read you a litany of ways in which they are loyal to him. if you listen to them, they believe in his mission, that his idea of what a president should do, they align very strongly behind. they also share with him the concept that he's been targeted, and that he is being unfairly prosecuted, persecuted. and that only makes them stronger. we have poll findings in december, the things that he says which people think are sometimes scary, in terms of talking about vermin, and about poisoning the blood.

those things make a substantial portion of gop caucus goers more likely to support him. and that is a concept, i think outside of trump's circles, people have a hard time understanding. but it is very much a part of who he is, his identity, and why people stick with him so strong. >> is it his personality, or is it policy? is it just because donald trump is saying, it or is it the policy behind it? >> if you ask his supporters, they can't separate the two. i will say, there is part of them that he runs his mouth in a way that they don't care for, but they will say that what he did as president, no one has ever done better. and that's why they need that back, again. >> one other question, have you ever seen anything like this, in terms of the lead that donald trump currently has, in any of the years that you have been doing polling for caucusing in iowa? >> yeah, not this close to actual caucus night. so, if he had stayed at the 51%

mark, and i don't think you would have seen anything even further back than that, he is has more than a 2 to 1 lead over his nearest competitor, it is very very strong. couple that with strong enthusiasm, it is a commanding position. >> ann seltzer. ann, thank you very much. and joining us now is nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki. so we got the broad overview, steve, of the polling. break the numbers down specifically, show us what you are seeing in this poll. >> yeah, i mean i'm seeing what everybody just saw. we could just take you through the numbers, trump obviously with a big lead here, nikki haley in second at 20%. not much of a change from the last poll. trump here leading with evangelicals, obviously a very important part of the electorate in iowa. trump lost by double digits with them back in 2016, now he has an overwhelming advantage.

desantis has gone after this group considerably. haley has, as you were talking about this, she's got support now with independents. she was at 23 in her last poll, she's up to 33 here. but the bad news for haley, again talking about this conversation here, the favorable unfavorable numbers here for haley have changed, a lot from our last poll. we can show you that 38-46. look at this, in the last poll, it was 59-31, she is down 11 in favorable. she is up 15 in unfavorable. you know, something that might have to do that, you just look at her supporters. more than three quarters of them have a negative view of donald trump. we have seen this with chris christie, with mike pence. the more you get identified with anti trump voters, i think the more that pro trump republican voters, perhaps, start to turn on you. and again, you -- the pollsters saw this, but it's that question of the weather, it's that question of enthusiasm. and trump's voters, very enthusiastic. desantis's are still enthusiastic. and that's that question, if haley is in second place, and her voters in this poll, at least are not nearly as enthusiastic as the others.

a lot of theories on how the weather is going to play out. but if enthusiasm goes into it, that might be a bad sign for haley. >> steve, i know you are looking at numbers across the board for, going on a year now, as we have been analyzing what's going to happen in this, race and now we are finally on the heels of it. what can you tell us about what this could mean for going forward? what a strong second place finish for either haley or desantis could mean for the upcoming states? >> haley is the one who, if you look towards the next state, new hampshire, in the polls she has had the best position there by far against donald trump. so i think obviously, she is hoping a second place finish here. she is hoping for anything that comes out of iowa, that is a signal of momentum, that tells new hampshire voters who have been moving towards her, at least until the last few days. we have seen some polls there, there is one that has her within ten points of trump. others, it's a lot closer in new hampshire than iowa. so she's looking for something that tells new hampshire voters

hey, this is for real here. think about it. and again, if you look at the independent voters, well i can't get back to it. but i just showed you the independent voters there. she's at 33% in iowa, she has climbed dramatically. you know, independent voters could be 45%, there is a scenario where independent voters are close to half of the electorate in new hampshire. there are only going to be about 20% here in iowa. so that's haley's core vote, with the way the electorate works in iowa, it's hard to see a winning formula there in iowa. but could that be a winning formula in new hampshire? just given the nature of the state, it could be. and if she were able to do that, if she were able to get a decent showing in iowa, when new hampshire, it would set the stage for a high stakes battle between her and donald trump. in south carolina, -- >> where she was governor, where donald trump is also extremely popular. steve, as we head into this election year, are there any

indicators in this poll or any poll that you can say are pointing you in a direction for what we might anticipate for the general election? what kind of enthusiasm there is going to be among voters? i know there's not a lot of enthusiasm for either one of these candidates, generally speaking. donald trump or joe biden. but is there anything in the numbers that you are seeing so far that you are going to be paying close attention to, come july and august? >> yeah obviously, pending. we will see who the republican nominee is. i mean, we've got these polls now. and i think again, you see it a little bit here, with haley doing well with independents, doing well, there are some self identified democrats who are gonna be voting here in these iowa caucuses. it's probably not a surprise, when you do trial heats of haley versus biden, she does better in the general election right now than donald trump does. although again call back to a very distant republican primary here. but back in 2000, the last candidate to have numbers anything like donald trump's on the eve of the iowa caucuses, republican caucuses, was george w. bush in 2000. trump just broke his records for the final share in the final poll, and the biggest lead in the final poll. and george w. bush was running worse than his main challenger, john mccain, against al gore.

but what bush turned that race into, bush vs mccain in 2000, he turned it into a loyalty test -- in states like south carolina. he said hey, my opponent is popular with the democrats, with the independents, with the media. you know, mischievous members of the other party who are powering my opponent. vote for me, the loyal republican. no wonder we see this haley support among independents, and even in the general election. if this keeps going, haley versus trump, if you make a stand in new hampshire, does trump make it a similar loyalty test there? we see trump is still extremely popular with most republican voters. >> steve kornacki. steve, thank you very much. and coming up, would you go out in this? the last time it was this cold in iowa for the caucus was, never. candidates are doing the round up enough support for monday. plus, what's next after monday night, it could be a two person race, if it is can that person really beat trump in a one-on-one? we will be right back.

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voter has so much more spirit, dedication. they say that -- the trump voter is coming to vote. their voters aren't -- >> this is go time. all eyes are on iowa. and you get it. you know the responsibility that comes with being first. >> are you ready to make some

history on monday night? we are going to fight, because we are going to turn this country around. >> in the final hours, it is down to the final pitches or in some cases, the final flattery. when a bomb cyclone hits, those final pitches can get blown out. in this case, literally. so what are the candidates doing in these last moments to make sure iowans give them a chance in new hampshire and beyond? joining us is nbc news correspondents vaughn -- and ali -- . vaughn, i'm going to start with you. donald trump had two canceled events today, is the campaign concerned? >> i can tell you that donald trump is now here, after spending not only a couple of days in the courtroom here this weekend, down in mar-a-lago. he is officially in des moines, here in iowa for the next 48

hours. in terms of whether the campaign is concerned or not. i was talking with a senior adviser just this afternoon, who says that they believe that they have built in operation -- that will ensure that they are able to activate their supporters around the state. not only offering rides to folks who need it, we are talking wind chills at negative 35 degrees come seven pm on monday night. but also, this is a moment where they have activated 1800 precinct captains around the state, who are in charge of turning out, each of those 1800 individuals, turning out ten new caucus goers. i was talking to one of those precinct captains here this afternoon, but whether he has confirmations from his ten individuals. and he said he actually upped his number to 20, because he lacked confidence that necessarily with the weather, that each of his ten would show up. so he jumped up to putting 20 on his list. but this is a moment where you see in the data there, katie, you are talking about 49% of his supporters here in the state of iowa, saying they are extremely enthusiastic about their support of him. compare that to just 9% for nikki haley, and i can tell you

last week, in sioux center rural community in the northwestern part of the state. it was about 20 degrees ahead of an afternoon rally outside, and there were several hundred folks that were waiting for hours for him. so this is a place that has proven, over the course of the last years, they are willing to show up for him. the biggest test will be this upcoming monday night, katie. >> all right, so, let's talk about nikki haley. what does she need from iowa to give her a boost going in to new hampshire, where she feels decently strong? >> look, the best-case scenario for nikki haley is a strong second place finish. because she recognizes that in order to make it an actual one-on-one race with donald trump, she has to first get ron desantis out of the way. so my understanding of that haley campaign ethos is, here in iowa, -- in fact, they are responding to it just in the past few minutes, saying in part that this poll shows the haley momentum continues to grow. they add though, they take nothing for granted. an they note the fact that cold weather does make it difficult.

but in my conversations with the campaign, they trust their turnout operation, they trust the loyalty of their voters here, and they trust that is going to allow them to finish strong in a second place position. they know that this is donald trump's state to loose, and that is why we are watching nikki haley focus so heavily on ron desantis, in large part because she knows finishing second here provides her the springboard that she needs to get into new hampshire, and continue that upwards trajectory. her campaign would urge us to look at the course of the last few months, or someone like desantis went all inform a resource and money perspective, on building out we would look like a traditional grassroots operation here. haley, doing it on less of a budget, and less of a budget and more of a shoestring effort. but they are targeting a lot of those suburban areas outside of des moines, outside of cedar rapids, and certainly outside of davenport, where i am. that is where they are hoping to make their inroads, and make it a clear case as they go into new hampshire. >> so, we saw the numbers just now from the des moines register. desantis is in third place, although his enthusiasm is better than nikki haley's, so

we'll see how that plays in the caucus, again, the caucus is all about enthusiasm and second choices. but let me ask you about what he does after this. he spent $30 million between his campaign and his supporting super pacs and allies in iowa. he has visited all 99 counties, doesn't have all that much of a presence beyond iowa. what does he do if he doesn't come in at the very least, a strong second? >> well, and that's exactly what the campaign is hoping for. he has done the full grassley, he has an incredibly strong ground game in iowa, like you said, thanks to that super pac never back down. but in terms of what the campaign's expectation for for what they are hoping will win a strong second finish. it might not match up with reality here. because looking at this poll, this is the first time that he has dropped from second place to third. granted, it's within the margin of error just behind nikki haley. but again, this race is about that second place, and so that is significant. but doing well in iowa, and gaining that momentum to go past iowa, even if you don't

have a good ground game in the other states, it is all about organization. and the campaign is very confident that they have that. never back down, saying that they knocked on nearly 1 million doors here on iowa, 3 million total across new hampshire and south carolina as well. and so, that's something they hope to hinge on going forward. the campaign also really riding on the endorsements from iowa governor kim reynolds, as well as the religious conservative leader, here bob vander plaats. and that is something that they are hoping will be reflected in other states as well. but i think like you mentioned, they are really honing in on the fact that nikki haley is their true competitor, in terms of needing to be in second place. and that is why we have learned that the campaign is actually sending ron desantis to south carolina immediately after the iowa caucus, before he goes to new hampshire to finish out that primary, katie. >> it is symbolic. president biden, who was a campaign candidate at the time, went from iowa to south carolina. we all know how that turned out.

it turned out well for him. more of ali and vaughn later -- joining us now -- chief politics reporter -- . is also an msnbc political contributor. so brynn, you are an iowan, you live and breathe iowa. you know cold weather, you've got some strong blood out there. is this though a step above, or a step below i should say, with negative 35 to negative 45 -degree temperatures? how do you anticipate that is going to affect the caucus on monday? >> well that's exactly right. iowans are used to cold weather, but this is something different. when the weather service puts out a warning that these are life threatening the cold temperatures, people need to pay attention, even iowans. as someone who has spent a couple of hours digging out her driveway this weekend, there is a big hurdle for people to get out of their homes, to get on the roads, and to get to these caucus locations. in particular they, if you are in rural parts of the state, you might have further to drive, you might have gravel roads that you are contending with. there are some real hurdles for people with the snow, and with these incredibly cold temperatures.

>> when you look at enthusiasm, and obviously that is going to be a big difference maker in the caucus. donald trump has a ton of enthusiasm, but it is also about ground game and just getting people to the caucus sites. ron desantis has made a big effort in his ground game in iowa, do you see that potentially being a difference maker here? >> yeah, we talk a lot about organization in the iowa caucuses. and what that means is that a campaign that is well organized might be able to organize people who have four wheel drive vehicles to go out and find the elderly people within their caucus, who would caucus otherwise, if they had a reliable ride. and that kind of organization can close a gap -- between ron desantis and nikki haley. it can't necessarily close the kind of gap that we see between nikki haley and donald trump, a nearly 30-point gap. but it can move the needle for candidates -- a little bit a couple of points either way, and so on this particular caucus, when organizations are really going to matter, we're going to look

back and we are going to see ron desantis really investing early in this state. he has an enormous ground operation, that's been in effect since very early, and nikki haley was much slower to get that up and moving. and is that going to come into play for her on monday? >> brynn pfannenstiel, thank you very much, and good luck out there, i hope you stay safe, as you report on the next few days, and as you report on monday night. thank you, and still ahead, donald trump lost iowa in 2016, and went on to dominate new hampshire days later. what happens if someone not named trump does the same? we're going to ask the insiders who have been there before. my skin has been so much smoother so much more hydrated. it's olay! with olay hyaluronic body wash 95% of women had visibly-better skin.

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seems like they're all for trump, like a lot of my friends would say that they are trump supporters. >> those are voters in sioux city, who say they are all in for trump. but what about the former trump voters who don't feel so comfortable anymore? are there enough of them to give a challenger a chance? especially if that challenger proves they can defy even the most modest expectations. joining us now, former white house communications director, an msnbc political analyst and co-host of msnbc's how to win 2024 podcast, jennifer palmieri. and former ohio governor, msnbc political analyst john kasich. john, you have run in iowa before, even though you skipped iowa. tell me, how much does iowa matter? >> well, i think it matters in this way. if haley can come into second place, and build that momentum, then she can carry that momentum into new hampshire. and new hampshire is a place where upsets can happen. she is within striking distance

there, according to the latest polls. if she does not finish in second place and has that momentum running into new hampshire, it's a real problem for her. so i know that the polls are indicating she is slightly in second place now. but as you heard from your other guests, this is a situation of intensity. and the ground game that desantis has been trying to put on, we will see if that can make a little bit of the spread that we have. and you know, there it is, the weather, who knows if it's going to be motivating. i think that the trump voters are going to get out, a lot of his voters in rural iowa, so that is a question as to whether that will keep him down, to a degree. but the haley voters are probably people who have come on lately. the question is, did the ground game for desantis, really to make a difference in keeping him in second place, and keeping him alive? >> you talk about rural voters. i wonder if there is enough snow, enough driving wind,

white out conditions, whether you can even get out the road, whether it's even possible to get to the caucus locations on monday. that might be a factor. jen, another factor is just the way you campaign against donald trump. how do you break, if you are desantis or haley, moving forward, how do you break the trump fever? >> listen, i think we are into an interesting couple of weeks, and kind of a trying eight weeks for trump. on the start of monday night, and then he has a series of contests, electoral, iowa, new hampshire, nevada, south carolina. but then also a lot of court battles. he has, the supreme court is going to hear the case on colorado. his plea deal to try to have immunity, that will get resolved, and will know whether or not the jan sixth hearing trial will start on march 4th, the day before super tuesday. so, i'm thinking about this, in terms of haley and desantis, if

they can break -- if she can come in second in iowa, beat him in new hampshire, which i think she is like 12 points down now. and you know how fast new hampshire can move. i think that is plausible. i don't think it means that trump does not end up as the nominee, i think he does, but it can put him in a vulnerable situation. and if she is making really emphatic arguments against him, the kind of arguments we saw chris christie make in iowa, i don't know that -- and you have a solid few weeks of that in new hampshire, and south carolina, and nevada, alongside possible court losses, that trump is experiencing. that is all running alongside of it. he could seem vulnerable, in a way that he doesn't today. you know right now, -- it's he thinks it's so smart, that he is been focusing, his communication centerpiece for his campaign are the courthouse appearances. if he loses in new hampshire, he looks -- and the primary it looks like focusing on himself, focusing on these trials isn't working,

then i think he can become more vulnerable. it seems very difficult for anyone other than him to become the nominee. but i'm thinking about the general, like what are those voters in new hampshire who are for nikki haley, what are they going to do in the general? a lot of them will go for trump, but not all of them. and it's interesting, biden is doing really well in new hampshire now against trump, pulling way ahead of him, much more so than other battleground states. but what has that state been getting? they have been getting a lot of anti trump messages for the last few months. and so, i am looking at this, about what kind of shape does trump end up at? particularly after the next couple of months leading to super tuesday on march 5th. >> yeah, i wonder how these next few weeks shape not just the primary, but as you said, shape the general election. i think it's a given that all voters, or even all likely voters are paying attention to these court cases, and know exactly what is going on with donald trump. but as politics becomes more in your face during this election year, i think certainly it could be a much bigger factor. john, when you are looking at

the next few weeks, and say you are ron desantis, and you don't come in second, or you don't come in a strong second in iowa. what do you do next? i mean he is going to -- he's going to new hampshire later in the day, but first he is going to south carolina. >> yeah i mean, i think if he does not do well in iowa, he is really on life support. you know, it's kind of hard to say, when somebody decides they've had enough. if he feels as though staying in would perhaps somehow get him to the convention, and maybe they pick somebody other than trump. i mean, i don't know. i mean the challenge now, what we have to keep our eyes on is what haley does. and the challenge haley is going to have, is she has to hope she does very well in new hampshire. because in south carolina right now, trump is way ahead. with the people in south carolina sort of giving her a second chance. because right now, she is not doing that well there.

her other big challenge is going to be super tuesday. all of these places where she has to be at once. but i think jennifer hits on it, which is, and i've been saying all along, it's kind of momentum. can the momentum get people to take a look and say, i've kind of had it with all of these trials, all of this trouble? can we just move on? but you know, trump's got that part of that base that doesn't seem to waver or shake, so that is why it is so difficult to beat him. in the fall, look, i mean, i think the economy is going to be a big issue. a big article today, where people look at the cost of groceries. i mean, the economists say that inflation is down, and you go to the store, the cost of groceries are up, that's a real problem for biden. but the challenge, the good thing for biden though is, people normally don't turn around and say i made a mistake, and then turn and vote for trump. but, we've got a long way to go, we've got to get to the primaries first before we get to that. >> yeah, i keep asking, who is the voter who didn't ask in who did vote for donald trump in

2020 who votes for him in 2024? i have not identified that voter yet. i haven't met a single person who's said it. >> i met one. >> oh you did. >> i have met some, actually. yeah, i met a truck driver in iowa, in des moines actually, a diner parking lot i'm sure you know, katie, near drake university. >> i know specifically that diner. >> you know that diner. >> of course. >> you've probably done your show from that diner. he voted for trump, he voted for biden in 2020, he said he's going to vote for trump in 24, because of gas prices. and, i watched a focus group of black women voters in detroit, and there is one black woman who said you know it, he's a racist, but the economy was doing great, and my 401k is doing great. he knows what he's doing. and so, it was really shocking, it was jarring for me to hear voters say that. but i think that is, that's why you see, we haven't talked

about biden at all, but biden, in just the last nine days, has been doing a lot of campaigning, and alongside the message about defining trump, talking about how his presidency is going to be about retribution and revenge, the biden campaign is also doing a lot of outreach now with black voters about how their vote matters. how economic standing among african americans is improving, that the wealth gap is less than ever. that black unemployment is lower than ever. and so, you're going to have to make, you're gonna have to make a really convincing economic argument with these voters, who have moved away from biden, to get them back in 20 -- >> we will see as the year goes on whether those grocery prices go down, the grocery bill is just the sticky thing that people notice. i'm paying more for eggs today than i was a year ago. does that go down, do people sort of settle into whatever the new cost structure is, and start to look differently at the economy, and potentially differently at the presidential race? governor kasich, jen palmieri, we're going to leave it there, thank you very much. coming up, nikki haley's popularity among independents could be a problem for donald trump in new hampshire, as we

have been discussing. where else is it an issue? plus, nbc news just dropped the final des moines register poll ahead of monday's caucus. why the race between nikki haley and ron desantis could be much tighter than it looks. what an icon,... ...a legend,... ...a legacy,... ...a pop star,... ...and a tight end all have in common? they all got this season's updated covid-19 shot to help better protect them against recent variants. got it? ( ♪♪ ) got yours?

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say they are all in for donald trump, but what about voters in new hampshire? the states iowa and new hampshire share almost nothing in common, save their early decision status. and while iowa voters proclaim loyalty, new hampshire voters are fiercely independent. exactly the kind of demographic nikki haley has so far excelled with.

so, what sort of finish does she need in iowa to push her through new hampshire, and then beyond? and if she does well enough, what does ron desantis do? as of now, the florida governor said he's headed south, after iowa, away from new hampshire. joining us now from manchester is nbc news correspondent shaquille brewster. manchester, new hampshire. shaq, what are you hearing from folks there? >> hi there katie. well you know, i'm hearing something that is sometimes a little bit hard for new hampshire voters, and elected officials to admit. and it is, what happens in iowa will determine, will influence how voters here in new hampshire view these candidates, especially those candidates who are not named donald trump. what you continue to hear is that an over performance by nikki haley or ron desantis in iowa could help establish, could help coalesce that energy, that anti trump sentiment in the independent support that folks have here in new hampshire, and could help influence them and set those

candidates as a clear second place, a clear contender against the former president. and you know, earlier this week when we saw former new jersey governor chris christie suspend his campaign, one of the things that you continued to hear, and an assumption that was being made, is that most of his support will go to nikki haley. but when i was at his event, when he suspended it, and talk to some of his supporters, that assumption was tested. listen here. >> what do you plan to do now, who gets your support? >> that's a great question. >> not the former president. but i haven't decided who, because i haven't listened to anyone else. >> you were a big supporter of -- what you do now? >> i have no idea. i haven't had time to really think about it. and right now when, i don't see where to go. >> nikki haley had clear momentum in this state, going into last week. you look at polling, you look

at that endorsement that she has from the republican governor here. but what happens in iowa could help blunt that, or continue and build upon that momentum that we saw. >> i love that i was getting in the spirit, with the red and blue lights on the trees behind you. not iowa, new hampshire! i will see you in new hampshire, shaq, on monday and tuesday, traveling up there for the show. coming up next, how to pick the battle against trump, or in other words, what nikki haley and ron desantis should be doing. with nurtec odt, i can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt.

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with nurtec odt, i can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. how do you beat donald

trump? joe biden and the democrats think they have the answer, and the strategy to do it, but what about republicans? if an insider wants to take on donald trump, as nikki haley and ron desantis and others in the gop primary field are attempting, what is the best way past him? so far, the winning plays are

proving elusive, at least we pect them to be. is it just because the clearest strategy is the riskiest? as our chuck todd puts it in his latest analysis, what's plainly obvious is that neither the former u. n. ambassador nor the florida governor has the guts to say trump's first term, and his leadership, were failures. joining us now, nbc news chief political analyst, the man behind those words, chuck todd. chuck, it's really good to have you. not an election year unless we have conversations, so i'm glad you are on with us. i want to ask you about the strategy, and what you just wrote there. why are they not saying, in plain terms, that donald trump wasn't good for the country, and that they would be better? >> well, it is because they look at all of those voters that are currently supporting donald trump, and they are afraid of alienating those voters. they are afraid of, i think more importantly, alienating conservative media, and of course conservative media is afraid to talk about an alternative to trump, for alienating trump supporters. it seems a bit circular, right. as you start talking it

through. but, i would argue that this hasn't been tried. there has been this mythology that you can separate trump from trump's voters, by just doing the character hits. and that's really all desantis have done, is the character hits. but for many, and katie, you know this better than most, you covered the beginning of this movement. for many, the character flaws were a feature, not a bug. so, you've got to make a stronger case. i was listening to a terrific, the folks at the bulwark today, a focus group of republicans in iowa, and i was listening to one of their podcasts where they were analyzing it. and, some of the criticism that these trump supporters were giving to desantis was really, well, he didn't really fight back. well, only in the last couple of weeks have i seen ron desantis actually start to make

the case that donald trump wasn't good at this. you know, he did not do a good job as president. and, i don't think it's an accident that it looks like desantis at least, finally, has found at least his rhetorical footing. he did a much better job for instance, in that debate against nikki haley. >> well look at iowa, for example, when you talk about how donald trump was for the state of iowa, for farmers in particular. he promised to make their state better, he promised to get money back for them. but the trade war in china backfired to iowa. he had ended up doing a bailout for iowa farmers. why have we not heard more of that from the candidates in the state of iowa? >> well it's a great question. look, take the issue of immigration. i think they do a terrible job of hitting him on immigration. they could both be attacking biden and trump, over immigration. look, the reason we have this problem now is because of trump 's policies.

they created artificial means, using the pandemic, to shut down the border, in a way that you just couldn't constitutionally do it, unless there was this, unless we had this health issue. and so, but what they did is they essentially, proverbially just put a kink in the hose, but he didn't work to actually fix the problem. they didn't work to change any of it. all of the things that republicans are now arguing for. so my point is, they should be making a case that donald trump failed at the border. not only did he not build his wall, trump failed his trade war. i understand they are afraid of alienating his voters, but you actually could win his look who's back if you make a compelling case that he is lying to them about his successes. they were failures, what he tried to do. you could say his heart was in the right place, if you believe that was what needed to be done. but i think nikki haley, and i think ron desantis, both of them. i mean look what nikki haley says. well, he was the right person and the right time. well, why are you running against him? i think you automatically start

to send a message that you are like no, i just don't like him. he's not good enough for most voters. >> i don't have much time left, so i try to make this short. vaughn hilliard spoke to some republican voters, who said they were afraid to tell their friends that they were not supporting donald trump any longer. i wonder if we might see more of that, more people going into the polling booth and pulling a lever for somebody else, because they are afraid to tell their friends and loved ones about their dissatisfaction with trump. >> well guess what, the caucus is a pretty public process. it's a little bit more public here, but maybe we will see that in new hampshire or south carolina. >> it's the opposite of what we saw in 2015 and 2016, when they weren't telling pollsters that they like donald trump, because they were embarrassed. but in the privacy of the booth, they went in and pulled the lever for him. chuck todd, good to have you, stay warm out there, or try to at least. and that's going to do it for me. be sure to keep listening to the how to win 2024 podcast with claire mccaskill and jennifer palmieri. they have more on the iowa

caucus in their latest episode. scan the qr code, hurry up and do it now, on our screen. and stay with msnbc for our continuing coverage of iowa. go out and vote, and thanks for watching. migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. ♪ i'm gonna hold you forever... ♪ ♪ i'll be there... ♪ ♪ you don't... ♪ ♪ you don't have to worry... ♪

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