so switch to business internet from the company with the largest fastest reliable network. give your business a head start in 2024 with this great offer. plus, ask how to get up to $1000 prepaid card >> one day to go before iowa. with qualifying internet. why there is more to these numbers in a new nbc registered poll. also, tim hey free, the former

investigator of the january six committee, on the growing fears about how donald trump will use the military if he's reelected. then we'll talk about election ranks with minnesota governor tim walz. at three eastern, nikki free, democratic chair on the new tweets and abortion rights in that state. good morning to you from nbc world headquarters here in new york. welcome, everyone, to alex witt reports. we're going to begin with the final countdown to the iowa caucuses, just one day to, go and republican candidates are battling an unexpected challenger, mother nature. as we look at iowa city right now, the temperature today, minus ten. the temperatures and forecast to warm up kind of, by caucus time tomorrow, but will remain below zero. conditions on the ground are treacherous for campaigners. it could hinder the ability of

voters to get to caucus locations. however, the candidates are braving the weather today. they are blitzing nine cities and the crisscross on the state for a total of 13 stops and one telegraph city. there is a new nbc des moines register media poll that confirms trump's lead. it is one of the reasons die hard supporters are enduring bitter cold to rally with the former president. nbc's vaughn hillyard caught up with some of them a short time ago. >> voters in iowa, they question if trump supporters will show up on caucus day. >> absolutely. >> i live three blocks of my caucus location, i can walk to it if we want. two >> to, miles i'll be there. >> did you stop for a moment to thank you wouldn't come out? >> no. no. >> how long are you willing to wait in these temperatures? >> i could walk back to my jeep over there. >> we'll get it eventually. >> it is a cold day and i, certainly. nbc correspondent art like snow,

they're blanketing the hawkeye state from the halls to the diners, to the parking lots. they are covering all the building drama as the clock ticks down to caucus day. right now, nbc's garrett haake is in iowa. that is what donald trump is going to speak at a rally at simpson college. that is scheduled for an hour or so from now. it is a balmy, negative seven degree there right now. i know you are a warm weather got like i have a warm weather girl. i can't believe this weather. how is the turnout do you think? >> alex, it's brutal out there. republicans i've been talking to at this trump event and others i've been to, throughout the course of the week, and even some of the events of the other candidates, have really been lowering expectations that the weather would have an effect on their turnout. iowans are hardy folks, there used to this. it is a caucus, not a primary. with a primer, you don't have to wait in line outside to cast your vote. the door is open. everyone goes inside. the program is, blissfully, and doors for the duration. you can make it from the front

door to your car, you'll be okay. the trump team, by the way, is confident on this fact. they believe those supporters aren't just supporters of politicians, their supporters of a movement. they won't miss this for. anything that was donald trump was telling folks in a hastily scheduled on the town hall last night. take a listen to this. >> they're saying the trump voter has so much more spirit, dedication, they walk over atlas. trump voters are coming to vote. yeah, voters are -- >> i'm hearing basically the same thing from trump caucus goers here. from the trump campaign, senior staff, they are all projecting confidence. what we see and that poll, the sky high enthusiasm numbers for their guy, they will turn their supporters into actual caucus goers, actual votes. when 7:00 rolls around tomorrow evening, alex. >> hank, thank you so much for all of that. we'll see if that prediction is true. let's go to nbc's dasha burns,

who is on route to cedar rapids right now. she is on the trail with the desantis campaign. hey, dasha, is their reaction from team to senators about this final iowa poll? >> well, look, alex he has brushing off the poll results. he is a guy that has never brought much stop and to pulling. he said, here's what he has had on some of the shows this weekend. take a listen. >> i think monday will be instructive. i'm looking forward to it. i know he had to trace back after canceling. got in late last night. i think that they're doing that because they do see that he may not meet those expectations. they are high expectations, for sure. we're going to do. well i think, look, i appreciate being the underdog. i like how people have tried to say, well, i do better in those situations. i have a record of doing well as the underdog. we're going to do well. >> at the same time, alex, i've

got to tell you. that is a change in rhetoric for desantis. he talks about trump changing high expectations for himself here. early on, he was saying that he was going to win iowa. he kept saying, a second place finish would still be strong. recently, they were saying, iowa is not everything. it is not the deciding factor. they have continued to lower expectations. now he's calling himself the underdog here. they report all the resources into the state. he has got to have a strong showing here. he will argue liability going forward. the thing keeping their hopes high is the fact that they do have a strong -- given the very, very brutal temperatures that we are expecting on tomorrow night, they believe that because they have this operation and place to get their caucus voters out, they have a slight advantage over nikki haley. perhaps he can get into that second place finish. he's going to really need that second place finish if he wants

to stay in this race. >> 100%. he'll need the enthusiasm push. safe travels on the road there, thank you so much, dasha. let's go to nbc's aly vitaly who is, like that willie nelson song, is on the road again. i'll refrain from singing its. where are you, what can you tell us about nikki haley's campaign? >> look, right now, alex, we are making the drive where nikki haley was supposed to be this morning, over to one of the des moines suburb areas. she is going to be taking part and, because the strategy for nikki haley is to really make turnout and the suburb, and what there is a population center, to garner her support in those areas. that is because part of her coalition, as our poll points out, is a mix of independents and democrats, as well as moderate republicans. haley really mopping out the never trump part of the republican party here in iowa. there is also the part of that poll that shows her in second,

which is good news. then there is the question of enthusiasm. which and temperatures like these, is going to be a big question. listen to what she said about that this morning. >> look, i'm not a political pollster. i won't worry about the numbers. what i will say, the momentum and the energy on the ground is strong. to me, the only numbers that matter are the ones that are going up, everyone else went down. that is showing we are doing the right thing. >> look, alex, haley making the point that she does not want to lose the force from the trees. if you look at at overtime, the trend of polling has shown that nikki haley has been on an upper trajectory. ron desantis has been on a downward trajectory. when they look at that and i, what this was not a state they thought they needed to win. if you look at where they put their resources, this is not where they put their eggs and that basket. it would be nice for them to have a second place finish so they can effectively make the case that [inaudible]

between haley and trump in order consolidating all of that support as they head into new hampshire. polling shows that really close, not like the story of iowa what this is certainly trump say to lose. new hampshire, those on the ground, they're wondering if momentum out of the state could translate to a win in the granite state. that would pierce the trump ville of inevitability. we will see what we see. >> one step at a time. her trajectory has been upward in new hampshire. thanks, ali. safe travels to you as well. for analysis on that final iowa poll, let's go to des moines. bring in nbc news senior political editor, mark more. it's good to see you, my friend. does this, pull in your mind, indicate any potential surprise at all for tomorrow's results? >> yeah, we always have to be on the stand by for a surprise, alex. again, our poll showed that donald trump if the numbers are correct, is poised for a historic victory on the republican side. the previous high margin for a republican on and company was 13 percentage points by bob

dole in 1988. donald trump 28-point lead is much bigger than that. if there is a surprise, it is in the race for second place, for nikki haley and ron desantis. they are separated by just a couple points. it is what you've been showing. ali was mentioning, those enthusiasm numbers could end up making it where, even though ron desantis is in third place, that more enthusiasts support could actually make up some ground on caucus night. we'll have to watch and see. >> i'm curious, the temperatures, you've got to take this into consideration, mark. it could factor into different outcomes than the polls your indicating right now. demographics like, look, the elderly. it won't be harder to coax them out of the nice warm toasty homes, or get them to the polls for tomorrow night. >> yeah. when you have a demographic breakdown in our poll, the most interesting one is about the party registration and affiliation, alex. ali was mentioning, those independent and democrats are

making, nikki haley's coalition, independent say that they are more likely to be probable attendees than definite attendees, according to our polling. republicans, they say they are more likely to be definite than probable. that's kind of, if you are a probable person who wants to go out in that cold, no big or not as likely as a caucus goer of the people who are definite once. i won't be watching that tomorrow night. >> can i ask you, if ron desantis and up and third place, is that and and for his campaign? do you have him endorsing donald trump potentially by the end of the week? >> it is a difficult place to be. ron desantis put so many chips into iowa. he has the endorsement from iowa city governor, with all 99 counties. he has spent so much over the airwaves here. third place would be very, very difficult for him. >> okay, mark murphy, thank you thank you for conducting people. we like looking at your hard work, thank you. stick around, all of.

you steve kornacki breaks down this iowa poll a bit more. heil be here at2:30 eastern time. you this headline. want to sh fears grow that trump will use the military in dictatorial ways if he returns to the white house. former lead investigator from the january six committee tim heaphy will talk about that next. he is here in studio. we're back in 60 seconds. e back in 60 seconds [city ambience sounds] [car screech] [car door slam] [camera shutter sfx] introducing ned's plaque psoriasis. [camera shutter sfx] he thinks his flaky, red patches are all people see. otezla is the #1 prescribed pill to treat plaque psoriasis. [ned?] it can help you get clearer skin and reduce itching and flaking. with no routine blood tests required. doctors have been prescribing it for nearly a decade. otezla is also approved to treat psoriatic arthritis. don't use otezla if you're allergic to it. serious allergic reactions can happen. otezla may cause severe

diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting. some people taking otezla had depression, suicidal thoughts, or weight loss. upper respiratory tract infection and headache may occur. [crowd gasp] ♪♪ with clearer skin, movie night is a groovy night. [ting] ♪♪ live in the moment. ask your doctor about otezla. >> today, growing fears that donald trump might use the military and dictatorial ways if he returns to the white house. with loyalists like christopher -- michael flynn and mike pompeo been mentioned for defense secretary and a second trump administration. this comes after a critical question from a federal appeals court judge, and responses from trump world. take a listen. >> could a president who ordered seal team six to assassinate a policarival, who is not impeach, could he be subject to criminal prosecution?

>> if he were impeached and convicted. first >> he didn't kill anyone, he didn't calls and insurrection, he didn't get charge for it. they're using hypotheticals to frighten america. >> the problem with trump, this isn't super outside the realm of possibility that we would be in a scenario like that. in a median i wasn't in the oval office, a dozen other staffers, said that -- should be executed for leaking something dangerous about him. >> onset, timothy heaphy, former prosecutor and lead investigator for the january six committee. welcome to you tim. let's talk about the seal team six question. so it sticks. how do you interpret not just the question, but the answer. >> i think it was a telling moment in the hearing and which -- got a concession. she essentially got the trump lawyer to say, yeah, baby there is a circumstance in which there could be a criminal prosecution. she did that by walking out these top groups of ridiculousness.

how could it be under the law that a person could commission the murder of a political rival and have that not be subject to criminal prosecution. she skillfully, i think, extended the logic of that argument, and exposed. it ultimately got him to say, there could be a circumstance and which -- once you make that concession, that is an absolute immunity, it's harder to make. >> there is more to obeying the law then sane 35 senators are on your side. it is quite extraordinary that they are pursuing this. let's take a look at some of the not subtle trump language he has been using in recent days when talking about what is going to happen if the courts don't rule in his favor. take a listen to this. >> i just hope we get fair treatment. if we don't, our country isn't big, big trouble. does everyone understand what i'm saying? >> i think that they will try to. win that is not the way, it is a bad thing. it is a bad precedent as we see.

>> you lead the house investigation for 16, for the committee. does this remind you of what you went through, what you listen to? is this, i guess, a pot on the slow burn again? >> yes, absolutely. we saw repeated instances, prior to january six, when the former president criticize the system. criticize the process. the difference now is that we're in a criminal justice process. that is marked by the involvement of real people. we'll jurors. real americans that are not part up this alleged deep state. they're just regular folks. they can summon, that is why i think, if these cases are tried, if they are guilty findings, subject to cross-examination, subject to challenge by the former president and his team, they may have more credibility and convince more people up the legitimacy of that process than congressional investigations, or the media, or a lot of the

other sources of the same fact. my hope is that these people think the criminal justice system is by and large fare. it's democratic. it's the essence of our democracy. it's real people making these decisions. not some bureaucrat. >> there are reports and political that claim the 16 committee did help guide the early days of the georgia trump probe. even as the committee did refuse to help the justice department and that request for material in the federal criminal probe of trump's election. so, tim, is there anything unusual about this? is there anything about the fact it is been raised now? >> nothing unusual at all about investigators who are working and slightly different systems comparing notes, or sharing information. in our conversations, or the department of justice, we only provided them with information that is now becoming public. there is nothing secret, or nothing hidden, or no documents. we did not pass along any

documents from these conversations. not unusual at all. what is unusual is the challenge to that. the argument that that is somehow nefarious. it is those challenges to the system, to the people involved and the system that is unusual. >> let's take a look at trump's calendar for court dates, ready? it is criminal trial calendar set to kickoff on the 4th of h, with d.c. election subversion trial. en the hush money trial. that starts on march 20. but then mar-a-lago classifies trial, for may 20th. then georgia prosecutors asking for that august 5th trial date. there is an analyst who told me that the belief is that the january six d.c. trial date is the one that is going to wrap up, most likely, before november, with a verdict. do you agree? is that what you bet on? >> i do. not only is the case most likely to be resolved, as promptly as possible, it is the most significant one. that is the one that the former president is charged with

preventing the transfer of power. a huge, huge allegation. much different than keeping confidential documents, or pain off a former pair more. i think the magnitude of it, and the trajectory of that, alex, i think judge duncan is committed to keeping the case on track. i think how that argument wet last week, in the d.c. circuit, suggests it will be a prompt victory for the special counsel, and the supreme court might not take the case. in which case, that case goes to trial closed to march 4th. maybe even on march 4th. that is the one most likely, because of the legal status, that gets result first. i think it's the one that is ultimately the most possible change in peoples minds because of the nature. >> we have seen that in polling. people suggest that if you are found guilty and that, that can change their mind. that's how they cast their vote. here is a critical question. if that happens, and the trial is decided, is it possible that

he could face sentencing before the november election? this could include the prospect of incarceration. or what that be put off to after an election? >> if you do the math here, there is a verdict in that case, a verdict of guilt in june. sentencing usually is within a couple of months. there is a preparation of a report, both sides have an opportunity to assemble facts that bear upon their prospective requests of the judge. there could be a fall sentencing date. >> do you think jack smith would ask for incarceration? >> i think jack smith would start with the recommended sentencing guideline range. i haven't done this calculation, my guess is, if he is convicted of all four of the charges, the guidelines would work command some period of incarceration. if that is the case, special counsel will request guideline sentence. >> the work you did on the 16 committee, do you think that is used to help expedite trump's

d.c. trial? >> i think it gave everyone a head start. it laid the foundation of sorts, that the special counsel used to start. then used it beyond. i think having all that information readily available for discovery helped educate the defense as to what the evidence would be. i think it would bear upon a timeframe, and the rapid trajectory of the case, yes. >> as i conveyed to you before the start of the show, you are welcome on this broadcast. thank you. if you were going to shuffle to buffalo, you could break a shovel because the effect of dangerous weather is bringing us stories. that is next. es that is next to be fixed right. i scheduled with safelite autoglass. their experts replaced my windshield and recalibrated my car's advanced safety system. ♪ acoustic rock music ♪ >> woman: safelite is the one i trust.

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get over here kids. directly at the source. time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity. and see migration in theaters now. >> at this hour, a look at waterloo, iowa. that is where temperatures are below zero as 96 million americans are under wind chill alerts, brutal cold, blustery conditions across this nation. key events in the u.s. this

week. the first, up the nfl. and unprecedented move postponing a playoff game with buffalo piled under by snow. that is supposed to happen in the game. frigid temperatures in iowa are expected to limit turnout to the gop caucus tomorrow. we have two reports from the coldest places we could think to send our reporters. one from the upper midwest, the other nation's heartland. first, jessie curb, so you have snow, but you're cold, and cold. how can you tell us about how it feels? >> it feels cold. colder when we have the wind picking up. we are in grand rapids, as you mentioned. there is quite a bit of snow out here in this neighborhood. the snow is still coming down, but they already have more than 70 inches that have been recorded in this community. the snow is expected to keep going in the great lakes region. you buffalo mentioned buffalo. parts of the area and buffalo,

around buffalo, are under a travel ban because of the conditions that have deteriorated. we're looking at snow bands across this region, here is the sixth day in a row that they have been having snow. but, of course, this is something that happens here year in and out. we will hear from some of the people here in grand rapids. >> what is this weather like? typical january? >> i would say different. >> why? >> it came out of nowhere. >> when it's windy like this, how much tougher does it make? it >> a lot tougher, that's why i had a hat on. >> what about the wind makes it brutal? >> the wind chill, it feels moist and here, in michigan. so that is why. >> even if you are not facing snow right now, you may not be and a lucky position, we are looking at temperatures

anywhere from 25 to 50 degrees below average across much of the country. we spoke with someone walking through this neighborhood a short time ago. she told me that she walked 45 minutes each way just to get some toothpaste. that is how treacherous the roads can be. she was like, i don't want to chance it. what 45 minutes each way. it was peaceful, calm, nice to enjoy this. coming back, she got blast of air in the face. that reminds me how cold it is in the snow we're seen, alex. >> oh my gosh. 45 minutes each way for toothpaste. did you have any baking soda? you could have use that in a pitch for a day or two. >> i'm sure her dentist is quite happy to hear that. >> thank you very much. let's go to iowa, priscilla thompson. priscilla, welcome to you. what are folks telling you about these below zero temperatures and how they will affect the caucus turnout tomorrow? >> yeah, alex, below zero

temperatures feel more like negative 20, negative 30, negative 40. this is dangerously cold weather. we have been tracking this all across the state, talking to voters about that, and i've got to tell you, most of the folks we have talked to say this weather will not stop them from turning out caucus with the exception of a few caucus goers who say they may stay and if it is too cold. the folks we have been talking to say they are passionate about their candidates. when we spoke to one man, he said it's not the weather that is stopping him from caucusing, it is the commanding fleet that president trump has in the polls. take a listen to these conversations. >> i don't think there is any point. trump is going to be the nominee. there is no point. >> do you like nikki hurt santas? is it worth getting out there in the hopes that they might -- >> know.

i am not a fan of either of them. i think we are slim pickings in the republican party right now. >> i like desantis, he has an excellent record of selfless service. the has a record of accomplishment and congress, and florida. >> he'll get things done. >> i like his character. >> and, as you hear, their enthusiasm is going to be a key issue on getting these folks out on caucus night. run desantis has poured a lot of resources into this state, really strong, robust ground game that is probably going to be helpful to him in that effort. we're also hearing from the other campaigns, trying to arrange pickups, see who has four wheel drive cars, who can help out. especially when we're talking about these rural areas, some of the county where we are, the roads are not going to be plowed like they are near des moines and these other city centers. folks are going to have a hard time getting on the road,

walking over black ice to make it inside that caucus room in order to make that presidential preference none. it could have an impact on monday night. >> absolutely, it sounds treacherous, potentially. priscilla, thank you so much. rachel maddow leads alliances of the caucus with steve kornacki breaking down the results on the big board. we have special coverage beginning at seven pm eastern for you on msnbc. later, congresswoman, marjorie taylor greene, and a new threat she is making. it will sound familiar. it might make your head hurt again. again. the company goes to the firstborn, audrey. the model train set is entrusted to todd. mr. marbles will receive recurring deliveries for all of his needs in perpetuity, thanks to autoship from chewy.

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>> breaking news and capitol hill. republican leadership which is a deal with senate democrats to now.d a government shutdown for the deal would extend funds for federal agenci that are set to run out on friday. now until march 1st, the second deadline pushed to march 8th, the extension still needs to pass the house and senate before saturday. joining me now, democratic congressman from massachusetts, seth bolton, he sits on the armed services committee. a good friend to us. good to have you on the broadcast, congressman. hard-line republicans, they don't like the funding deal that is with senate democrats. this extension won't need a democratic support to pass. will you vote for it? can you tell americans who are watching this unfold that the final outcome of this is in their best interest? >> alex, i don't need to tell

you that congress is good at kicking the can down the road. this is what this steele does. the only thing worse than kicking the can down the road is shutting down the government. if this means keeping the government open so we can live another day, to pass a proper budget, then yes all vote for the deal. at the end of the day, it's always democrats who end up bailing out the republican speaker to do the right thing and hard-line negotiations like this. >> let's talk about the series of u.s. strikes on the houthis after the iranian-backed militia group disrupted shipping. two americaofficials tell the new york times that the strikes damaor dtroyed not 90% of group retained about three quarters of its ability to fire missiles and drones, and ships transiting the red sea. nbc news has not confirmed this reporting. i am curious, how effective or the strikes? if the u.s. has difficulty, identifying targets, could it

prolong this conflict? >> look, the strikes were very effective. this is a serious threat. indeed, we are responding to the houthis because they are a serious threat to international shipping. that means we are not going to take care of it all tonight. we have to have more strikes. have to envelop intelligence to discover what we need to do. the message that the biden administration is sending to this group, and two other militant groups in the region, is that you are not going to get away with this. most importantly, you are not going to continue escalating conflict and the middle east to start a regional war. that is what the biden administration is primarily acting to prevent. that is a regional war in the middle east. >> here >> is something. yum of your progressive colleagues, like senator merkley as well, have said that president biden should have set congressional approval for these strikes. here is how progressive leader, camilla --

explained yesterday. >> section three of the resolution says that. it specifically says, and every circumstance where possible, the president must consult with congress so that we have both congress and the president weighing what the course forward should be. and the situation, ali, what the president did is consult with the huge number of allies it took weeks, and in fact, the white house was telegraphing that there was going to be some retaliation. there was certainly time and space to come to congress and consult with congress, to ask for our authority. >> where do you stand on this? >> well, look, as someone who is a colleague, i come in favor of administration talking to congress. there are two points to understand. first of all, what the administration did is completely illegal under the law and the constitution. article two of the constitution says that the president can act

in the nation self defense. look, these are international shipping, including shipping to the united states. defenseless crews that are been attacked and the red sea. the second point i would make is, yes, under normal circumstances, in an ideal world, it is great to come to congress. look at the state of the house right now under speaker johnson. it is totally dysfunctional. republican leadership. they couldn't even vote on a procedural motion this week to simply advance to voting on a bill. that sounds like maybe arcane registration mumbo jumbo, it means we couldn't even get through the preliminary vote to actually have a vote, yay or nay, on a piece of legislation. that's how dysfunctional the congress is right now under republican leadership. if the president had concerns about waiting for congress to actually improve, before the enemy got wind of what we were going to do, i think that is probably a legitimate concern. it's one of many reasons it's

important democrats take back the house in november. >> you believe that biden acted appropriately and this instance, looking down the road, the director of the joint staff, douglas, some said he expects some sort of retaliation from the houthis. could that further draw in the american military, require more resources, if so, should congress get a say in that? >> look, the houthis are going to threaten to respond, they are already attacking international shipping. they are already doing what they are trying to do to disrupt and cause terrorist attacks against americans and whoever else who are translating through the red sea. there are u.s. navy vessels in the red sea. they can respond to these attacks and shoot down the missiles before the end biden administration actually tried to stop them at the source. i do expect that activity to continue. i also expect it to be degraded because up the positive decisive action that the

president has taken. >> let's move to secretary of defense, lloyd austin, who sign o on the strikes from his hospital bed. as you, know he is under scrutiny for his undisclosed hospitalation. they want him to be impeached, they pentagon has people investigating. the president said he has confidence in him. was national security at risk because of this? shouldn't austin continue to have the full support of not only the president but the american people? >> look, secretary austin has a remarkable, distinguished record in public service over a decade to the united states of america. what the blunt answer to your question, alex, yes, national security was at risk when no one had any idea who was in charge of the pentagon. as a marine veteran who served at the lowest level of the chain of command, as a mere lieutenant in iraq, i cannot imagine this happening. certainly, if i had done what secretary austin did, i would have been fired in a heartbeat. when i was a 15 year old busboy,

if i was out sick for a week, i had to tell my boss. everyone can understand that. it is critically important, when we're talking about the nation's military chain of command, right up to the commander in chief. the commander-in-chief has to take some action here to make it very clear that this will never happen again. >> look, practically speaking, when you look at what has happened, and the huge uproar over this, you can pretty much go to the bank that it is not going to happen again on lloyd austin's watch, right? is there anything to be said given your description, his ability, and the trust that you have for his ability to lead this country militarily speaking? should it be, lesson learned, slap on the rest, a hard slap on the wrist, however you want to categorize that, and continue on. let's keep the rhetoric going in the right direction. >> look, i have made a lot of mistakes in my life. i made mistakes in the marine corps.

i didn't always get fired for those mistakes, that is not an unreasonable course of action. but, the commander and chief is clearly needing to make something, clear which is that secretary austin has his trust and confidence, and that secretary austin is able to continue doing his job from his hospital bed. as a sitting member of the armed services committee that has technically oversight for the pentagon, the people have asked me this question over the last couple of days. do you think secretary austin is capable of adequately supervising things from his hospital bed? the honest answer is, i don't know. the secretary and the president need to answer that question confidently. not just so this doesn't happen again, but so we're confident in what is going on with his course of treatment. we all have sympathy for him, but national security is at risk here. >> you have spoken with candor and i appreciate that. it makes sense. senator --

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caucus of 2024, a final poll shows donald trump with a substantial lead in iowa. nbc news des moines register, and media camilla survey shows 48% of likely caucus goers say trump is their first choice.

that is a 30% lead over nikki haley at 20%, followed by ron desantis at 16. joining me now is merlin congresswoman, donna edwards. susan del percio, republican strategist. and former florida congressman, david jolly. all three, nbc political analyst. welcome to you all. susan, you first. if the polls production is correct, and trump takes iowa, history suggests that it is necessarily guarantee he will be that nominee, then again, trump often defies precedence. how important is the hawkeye state is the grand scheme of things? >> for donald trump, i don't see how he loses it at this point, given the polling, and his strength on the ground. let's not forget that this is not like 2016 for donald trump. he just kind of wind debt. he put a lot of effort into his campaign on the ground. i think right now, ottawa is, according, to win the silver, if you will, in iowa. will it be nikki haley or wrong

desantis? i think momentum is on haley side. recently, i got to think about desantis. there is one thing that could lead him to a second place finish, that is a governor kim reynolds, popular governor of iowa, has endorsed him, and does have a ground operation that, in the middle of a snowstorm, and record lows, people will come out for her. if not for him. >> there is something else, david. early projections are expecting rhonda scent is to do well in iowa due to his popularity among evangelicals. however, in that poll, desantis is trailing nikki haley. if he ends up liking behind her tomorrow, does that leave his campaign on life support? >> alex, i think the funeral processions for ron desantis's campaign is already lining up. i say that because even though many of the pundits are looking at how strong of a second place finish could wrong desantis pull off, i have much stronger

expectations. ron desantis must win iowa outright. the reason being, he is now in fourth place in new hampshire. he is 60 points behind and nevada. he is third place in south carolina. anything that doesn't radically change the narrative for ron desantis leaves him limping out of iowa. i would even suggest, he pulls off a one, he will have all the momentum. i don't think he'll pull it off, but if he does, he will have momentum. a win and i what didn't do it for santorum and huckabee, and ted cruz. i think ron desantis and his partner on this trail, his wife, have some hard decisions to make tomorrow night. whether or not to withdraw from this for good, his days on the campaign road. >> there is a new poll today that could indicate donald trump is not back and republican strongest twice if they want take back the white house. according to cbs news, nikki haley leads president biden and a matchup by eight points. ron desantis leads by three, trump only leads the president

by two. what do you make of this? does this make trump the ideal candidate for democrats in november? >> well, look. i think that everybody expects that donald trump is going to get the nomination, this is a lot of speculation. the fact is, it is easy to put up these hypotheticals when no one has been tested nationally. nikki haley hasn't been tested, ron desantis hasn't been tested. we know what that test is donald trump. that is why american voters know donald trump, and it accounts for the reason he is the one who flags amongst those three. look, i think the biden campaign is going to be ready for whoever gets the nomination. they expect donald trump will get the nomination. already, you can see the campaign going on the attack. against donald trump and some of the outrageous things that he has been sane on the campaign trail. i think leaning into this issue of democracy, of reproductive

freedom, they will be strong suits for democrats, whoever the nominee is out of the republican party. >> david, from a republican perspective, is nikki haley the stronger general election candidate over donald trump? >> sure, she is. for the most part, unless donald trump told his supporters to stay home, she brings that added element of the persuadable voters who currently are part of a coalition supported joe biden. i think she would be a stronger candidate. don's point is important. about being tested in the public eye, particularly in the low to medium information space. this has been a lot of republican candidates. the most defensive candidate was donald trump. the most annoying is ramaswamy. the most unlikable is nikki -- 's front desantis. that leaves nikki as someone you want to, like you want to believe she is different from the rest. there is that moment with nikki haley when she tries to have it both ways. she reminds you of what a republican politician she is.

that is what i think the american people get to know her better. maybe that hypothetical lead over biden does help. >> let's turn to the biden campaign itself, there are some concerns that democrats are doing enough to earn the support of african american voters. let's take a listen together shoot what popular radio host charlotte mean to call and social justice activists, angela ride, said earlier on msnbc. >> i have been in meeting after meeting. both on the hill and off the hill, with the party about their failure to reach their base. their most faithful base. for years. this is not new information. i don't know what we're surprised. >> people want security. a lot of that security as financial. it is simple and plain. whether it was president obama, or all the way back to clinton, to now, joe biden. they feel the democratic party have never promised that. >> donna, do they have a point? are the democrats doing enough to excite one of the most loyal

voting groups? >> well, i think clearly, i think the biden campaign and democrats realize that whether you are talking about regaining the house and keep the senate, certainly the white house, if you don't get the enthusiast them and support of black voters, you are not winning a national election. this is going to be a huge focus. you can see that coming out of the biden camp. the speech, the mother emmanuel church and south carolina, i think it was an important opening salvo to try to regain and gain the trust of black voters. look, i expect the most loyal voters, black women, will come home to the democratic party. i don't think that democrats should take it for granted. black voters are tired of being taken for granted. >> this brings me to the last question, susan. you have conducted focus groups in the past. supporters are often expressing their discontent and campaign season. when election days will around, they still show up for their

party. is that what's happening now? should the biden campaign take this seriously, like donna is suggesting? >> they absolutely have to take it seriously. more so because it narrative is starting to build into this campaign season. joe biden is losing young people, and people of color. he can't have that happen so early on. he really should be, quarterback i think he should be using the vice presidents much more often and these campaign events that he has. but what's interesting, you are right. come election day, i don't expect to see hispanics over, vote for trump over biden. but, they might -- >> complacency. >> what you talked about, independents and republicans that voted for biden. they may stay home. >> yeah. all right, donna, susan, david, we'll be speaking with you all again. thank you so much. in our next hour, you'll be hearing from a politics reporter about a plan to crash the iowa caucuses.

the impact that could have, coming up. coming up.

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two navy seals are missing off the coast of somalia, underground officials a report one seal fell into choppy water trying to board a vessel, and then the other jumped into attempt a rescue, that is seal team protocol. search operations are ongoing well tensions are simmering with nearby yemeni houthi militants. texas has put up new razor wire and fences along two and a half miles of the border, with mexico to deter illegal migrant crossings. part of it now blocks access to a boat ramp to the city of eagle pass, used by border patrol to cyst -- in distress. that move was highlighted in the supreme court filing whether justice department, and then look at this. this floor you're about to see, that looks like lava, right? literally, residents of